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Keene Little : 4/12/2007 12:13:17 AM

Here are the 60-min chart updates I included in tonight's Market Wrap:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link
Gold daily: Link

I'll get CME and GOOG on Thursday. I'm all charted out tonight.

Keene Little : 4/12/2007 12:06:55 AM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/11/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 9:36:52 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Day traded short 1/2 position in SIL, but that was it. Shorted $15.48/$15.45 and covered $15.22 for +1.49%.

"Bad tick" in the USO to $50.00 today. Session low was $50.22. Chart from Monday's Market Wrap Link . Low/High since Monday's close has been $50.22/$50.96.

"Bad Tick" at the high today too. Session high actually $50.96.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 9:11:00 PM

Looks like a refining stock some might be trading ... unconventional $0.25 box Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 9:08:09 PM

0.25-box chart of $GASO vs. $WTIC Link that some have been following.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 9:04:47 PM

Per 09:01:25 and "I can't remember when" ... Here's a 1-point box of $GASO vs. $WTIC Link and it was probably early September of 2005 that we saw the crack spread this wide.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 9:01:25 PM

Watch that "doji" (price equilibrium, possible trend reversal) on Valero Energy (VLO) $67.38 +0.11% Link ... My tabulation for May Oil/Unleaded crack is 34.812. Highest since I can't remember when!

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 8:53:32 PM

June Unleaded (rb07m) settled up $0.0253, or +1.21% at $2.1105.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 8:52:55 PM

May Unleaded (rb07k) settled up $0.0357, or +1.68% at $2.1587.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 8:47:07 PM

US Oil fund (USO) closed down $0.15, or -0.29% at $50.46.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 8:45:51 PM

May Crude Oil (cl07k) settled up $0.12, or +0.19% at $62.01.

June Crude Oil (cl07m) settled down $0.04 at $64.84.

Next Friday is May Crude Oil expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 8:41:39 PM

Murphy Oil Sees Earnings Topping Estimates

MUR $54.05 +0.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 8:39:13 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 8:35:28 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 8:33:36 PM

Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK) $27.91 -0.95% Link ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 8:33:31 PM

Geo Group (GEO) $48.36 -0.22% Link ... Lehman Bros. upgraded to 'Overweight' on 03/30/07. That's about "4" (beginning of April) on the PnF chart.

S&P upgraded the company's credit rating on 03/28/07 Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 8:33:25 PM

Cornell Companies (CRN) $21.05 +0.57% Link ... careful regarding the young hedge fund manager that "graduated from Cornell"

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:53:52 PM

Corrections Corp. of America (CXW) $52.86 -0.03% Link ... Jail House Rock!

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:49:24 PM

Former NYU Student Sentenced For Role In Hedge Fund Scam

DJ (partial)- A former New York University whiz kid who posed as a Turkish heir and persuaded sophisticated investors to pour millions into a nonexistent hedge fund was sentenced Wednesday to 3 1/2 years in prison.

Hakan Yalincak, 22, who has already served 20 months, needs the time in prison to reflect and find his "moral compass," U.S. District Court Judge Janet Bond Arterton said.

"It would appear the majority of his life was spent engaged in fraud," said Arterton, who ordered him to pay $4.18 million in restitution.

Yalincak, who pleaded guilty last year to bank and wire fraud, acknowledged in court Wednesday that he did play a pivotal role in the scheme and pledged to work on paying the restitution.

"I made significant errors of judgment," he said. "If I could go back and take back what I've done I'd do it in a heartbeat."

His attorney had asked for a sentence of 20 months that he has already spent in prison as well as home confinement and restitution. Yalincak's mother, Ayferafet Yalincak, 52, was sentenced last month to two years in prison after she pleaded guilty last year to conspiracy to commit wire fraud in connection with the scheme.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:44:24 PM

Commerce Bancorp Started at 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank

CBH $31.71 -2.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:24:10 PM

Mellon Financial Started at 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank

MEL $43.17 -0.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:23:09 PM

Bank of New York Started at 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank

BK $40.53 -1.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:22:10 PM

Intercontinental Exchange Started at 'Outperform' at BMO Capital

ICE $126.95 -0.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:19:02 PM

Hey, that just adds some "credibility" to their opinions.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:18:39 PM

PNC Financial Started at 'Sell' at Deutsche Bank

PNC $72.03 -0.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:17:05 PM

Wells Fargo Started at 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank

WFC $34.17 -0.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:15:58 PM

Morgan Stanley Started at 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank

MS $79.40 -0.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:14:49 PM

Bear Stearns Started at 'Hold" at Deutsche Bank

BSC $147.78 +0.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:13:49 PM

Those are agency crosses in the SMH Marc.

Checked it too after the RIMM earnings/action

RIMM is NOT a component of the SMH, but may have some industry impact.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:11:22 PM

Lehman Bros. Started at 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank

LEH $71.34 -1.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:10:28 PM

Merrill Lynch Started at 'Buy' at Deutsche Bank

MER $85.89 -0.89% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 5:10:01 PM

SMH jumps up to 34.55 after hours. At least semis are showing relative strength. not even touching 50 DMA like others. The chart looks like a giant coil ready to explode and I suspect INTC will provide the boost next week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:07:30 PM

Bank of America Started at 'Hold' by Deutsche Bank

BAC $50.51 -1.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 5:04:15 PM

Platts Survey: OPEC Oil Output Falls 80,000 b/d in March, but still above target

DJ- The 10 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) bound by the group's output agreements produced an average 26.54 million barrels per day (b/d) in March, a Platts survey showed April 11. This is down 80,000 b/d from February's 26.62 million b/d but still 740,000 b/d above the group's 25.8 million b/d production target.

Total production from all 12 members, including Iraq which does not participate in OPEC output pacts and Angola which joined the group at the beginning of this year, dipped by 70,000 b/d to 30.11 million b/d, the survey estimated.

"There certainly is no sign that higher prices are leading OPEC producers to put more oil on to the market," said John Kingston, Platts Global Director of Oil. "To the contrary, the steps the group took several months ago to restrain output are still firmly in place. And with the third and fourth quarters, which are historically demand-growth periods, just months away, it won't be long before the group will be confronted with the question of whether to put more oil on to the market."

Among the OPEC-10, there were small output increases from Indonesia and United Arab Emirates (UAE), but Nigeria, following the latest attack on oil facilities in the Niger Delta, saw overall production fall by about 100,000 b/d.

Iraqi volumes were slightly down on February, while Angolan production continued to rise.

OPEC ministers agreed last October to remove 1.2 million b/d of crude from world oil markets beginning in November, saying supply was well in excess of demand and setting a production target of 26.3 million b/d. In December, they agreed to expand the cut by 500,000 b/d from February, bringing the target to 25.8 million b/d. The cuts were based on estimated September production of 27.5 million b/d.

The latest survey shows that the OPEC-10 have cut supply by some 1.27million b/d since September, when Platts estimates pegged production at 27.81million b/d.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 4:59:52 PM

Hitwise: Google Accounted for 64% Of US Searches in March

DJ- Google Inc.'s (GOOG) market share of online searches continued to grow at an annual rate of about 10% in the month of March, while its competitors' share shrank, according to online market research company Hitwise.

Google accounted for 64% of all U.S. searches during the four weeks ended March 31, up from 58% in the same period a year earlier, while Yahoo! Inc.'s (YHOO) market share fell to 22.26%, from 22.3% a year earlier, Hitwise said.

Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) MSN Search was used in 9% of searches in March, down from 13.9% a year earlier, while Ask.com accounted for 3% of U.S. searches, down from 4% in March 2006. The remaining 48 search engines in the Hitwise survey accounted for 5% of U.S. searches during the period.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 4:55:43 PM

Remember that they usually give us the low before opex week on Thursdays before (tomorrow).

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 4:46:46 PM

Risk to 1802 overnight or tomorrow should NQ not get over 1812.75. RIMM is getting some sell the news and we could get one more low tomorrow. FOMC is more of a concern, though.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 4:15:33 PM

RIMM's Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 4:14:11 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $146.02 -1.54% ... plunges on headline numbers.

$139.72 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 4:11:16 PM

FOMC's March 20-21, 2007 Minutes Link

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 4:02:49 PM

Care to take a guess which chart this one is? Link It's the semis: Link Interested in playing it? Me neither.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 4:01:32 PM

SIL just a little "out of whack" near-term relative to CDE. $15 NAKED Call OI in trouble though.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 4:00:30 PM

I'm looking for a BULL entry on GG by the way.

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 3:58:49 PM

The current bounce has a corrective feel to it. It could pull back and then give us a sharp rally early tomorrow and if it does then it'll be a great setup for the short side. But it's looking like surprises on the downside are now in play. RIMM's earnings report looks like a short waiting to happen--that one has had a good ol' fashioned earnings run and they were always good for a short. Straddle on it anyone?

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 3:58:46 PM

Bla! ... GG $25.81 -0.38% ... after session low of $25.49.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 3:45:59 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Genentech Inc. and Research in Motion Ltd. will likely be active during Wednesday's after-hours trading session, as the biotech company and BlackBerry maker report results.

South San Francisco, Calif.-based Genentech (DNA) is expected to turn in first-quarter earnings of 67 cents vs. 46 cents a share a year earlier, according to a poll of analysts by Thomson Financial. Revenue is forecast to surge to an average estimate of $2.74 billion from $1.99 billion.

At its analyst meeting last month, Genentech forecast U.S. product sales for the quarter would be "essentially flat" on a sequential basis.

Research in Motion (RIMM)is expected to report a sharp jump in earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter ended March 3, thanks to strong demand for its newest BlackBerry models. Analysts will closely watch the company's forecast for the coming year.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 3:44:37 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: -1K. Previous: +11K.

8:30a.m. March Import Prices. Expected: +0.8%. Previous: +0.2%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 3:42:04 PM

SIL $15.21 x $15.22 still. Session low came juuust above WEEKLY R1 ($15.16)

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 3:35:51 PM

CDE $4.14 -1.89% ... session low has been $4.11

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 3:34:43 PM

Day trade short cover alert for SIL at the offer of $15.22

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 3:33:55 PM

I'm thinking shorting the rallies is now in order. That's a little early to call on some indices but I like the fact that the NYSE has broken its uptrend line from March 14th (as has the RUT), two important indices to watch. This after essentially a double top for the NYSE with bearish divergences. It topped out in the Fib projection zone that matched up with the previous high. Looks good to a bear. Link

Today's pattern shows either a clean impulse down, as labeled on this 15-min chart, or more bearishly it could be a 1-2, 1-2 wave count down. That would say get ready for a screamer to the downside. But assuming for now we had a 5-wave decline for a larger degree wave-(1), then we're due a wave-(2) bounce that should be an excellent short play. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 3:31:32 PM

Before I go, NQ 20 DMA is at 1802, so the area of spike support is quite broad between 1802 and 1808. They might play games with that.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 3:28:48 PM

If you are long at 1808, you move your stop up to 1807 OR you give yourself some room for QQQQ 44. You choose. We can actually go under support, but close back above it. To each his own. I like the tight stop when the entry is very good. Then I can re-enter if it holds again. I have to step away, be careful but don't be afraid.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 3:26:22 PM

You see? It's now harder to buy 1814 than it was to buy 1808. Your stops hs to be wider and you are taking a bigger chance. Risk is relative. I believe that risk lies in playing it "safe". There is no such thing as safe. Trading is war. You save your ammo and pick your battles. When it comes, you charge. The timid end up with no loot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 3:23:20 PM

SPY $143.91 -0.48% ... CBOE Most active options ... Sep $135 Put, Apr 144 Put, Apr $145 Call, Sep $146 Call,

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 3:21:01 PM

VIX.X 13.68 +7.88% ... back below WEEKLY Pivot.

Me thinks out the money put sellers abound!

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 3:18:29 PM

Day trade short lower stop alert ... for SIL $15.19 +0.13% ... to $15.24.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 3:12:55 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 3:02:32 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 3:01:24 PM

This is the pullback many traders wanted a few days ago, now are you brave enough? That is why making money in this business goes against everything your emotions tell you to do. It's very rare for traders to have to the courage to stick to a plan. NQ 1808 could only have happened on a volume sell-off, it was not going to be given for free.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 3:00:23 PM

Day trade short lower stop alert for SIL to $15.30.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:54:24 PM

Use those penny options to set up good stops.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:53:19 PM

And there we go, some timid buying at support. SMH holds 34.35 and NQ 1808.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:51:11 PM

Apex Silver (SIL) $15.20 +0.19% ... probes opening tick low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:48:59 PM

SPG-PA's $0.25 x $0.35 ... need $0.90 or more.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:48:21 PM

NQ needs to hold 1808/1809 at the close.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:49:12 PM

There, in again at 1.70 (SMH Aug 35 calls). INTC is hardly blinking today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:48:13 PM

SPG $111.32 -2.78% ... after kiss of WEEKLY S1 ($111.22).

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:45:28 PM

SMH 34.35 is also a level to watch. I will cost average my Aug calls on a successful test of QQQQ 44.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:44:44 PM

Looks like they want to see if QQQQ 44 holds up.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:43:41 PM

VIX.X 14.00 +10.41% ... no tries to make its move.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:41:57 PM

SPG $111.43 -2.68% ... the Jul $110 Put (SPG-SB) $4.40 x $4.70 ... no contracts traded today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:37:59 PM

GSO.X 189.23 -0.85% ... WEEKLY Pivot 188.10.

Yesterday I noted GSO.X challenged 52-week high.

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 2:37:34 PM

The important level for SPX is 1435--a break below that would be a lower low and a break of its uptrend line from March 14th. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:36:33 PM

QQQQ $44.14 ... gets the trade at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:32:43 PM

SPG $111.75 -2.41% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:32:39 PM

Yes, the game will most likely be to ramp up opex week. Selling on Wed and Thur before is a dead give away, most often.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:32:25 PM

The Simon Property Group ... Apr $105 Put (SPG-PA) currently $0.20 x $0.30.

Not "enough" premium there at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:30:43 PM

You know what I'm doing ... looking for some OUT THE MONEY puts to SELL!

... even though I won't be here to join you for next week's expiration.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:29:23 PM

Gold reached my target of 685/686 and I am flat YG. Gold does not like fed hawkish talk since it means they will control inflation. I am wait and see now with gold.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:29:16 PM

DIA $124.86 -0.58% ... 02:00 PM test of WEEKLY Pivot still holds buyers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:28:41 PM

VIX.X still tentative at WEEKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 2:25:21 PM

Correction to my 2:09 post--the key level for the DOW is the 12416 high on March 30th. This has it closer to its uptrend line from March 14th so a break below 12416 would be a double whammy for the bulls. Right now though it's possible we're seeing a 5th wave down for today's move down. That means we could get a larger bounce into the close and tomorrow but the setup would be good for another strong decline to follow.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:25:18 PM

The pattern has been sell the open and buy the close. Let's see if there are any changes today. We will not end up green, that's almost a given, but where we close is more important.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:23:58 PM

Let the dust settle and see what funds do in the final hour before committing.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:23:31 PM

That was it?

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:22:45 PM

FOMC: Keeping Current Rates To Spur Growth, Lower Inflation

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:22:09 PM

FOMC: Labor Markets Tight, Consumer Spending Supported

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:21:34 PM

FOMC: Housing Demand 'Leveling Out,' No Subprime Spillover

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:19:39 PM

I have often found that pre-opex lows are usually on Thursday, but that could be overnight.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:18:50 PM

Looks like 1808/1809 coming for NQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:18:29 PM

If oil drops, some inflation fears go away. This is why I prefer NQ if attempting longs.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:17:51 PM

Markets will now be nervous ahead of Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:16:47 PM

Day trade short lower stop alert ... to break even ($15.45) for Apex Silver Mines (SIL) $15.31 +0.92% ...

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 2:13:49 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. Federal Reserve members were very uncertain about the economic outlook and changed their policy statement to gain more flexibility to respond to the incoming data, according to the minutes of the March 20-21 meeting released Wednesday.

FOMC members meeting in late March were presented with one of the worst case scenarios for central bankers, simultaneous signs that economic growth was on surprising thin ice with inflation gathering an uncomfortable amount of momentum.

"This combination...suggested increased downside risks to economic growth and greater uncertainty that the expected gradual decline in core inflation would materialize," the minutes stated.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:13:09 PM

No fed cuts on the horizon, This is bad news for small caps.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 2:10:17 PM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- U.S. Federal Reserve officials agreed at last month's policy meeting that more rate increases might be needed to combat inflation, but given increased uncertainties about the economy opted not to cite higher rates as their only alternative.

"Further policy firming might prove necessary to foster lower inflation," the Fed said in the minutes of its March 20-21 meeting, which were released Wednesday with the usual three-week lag

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:09:56 PM

FOMC minutes

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 2:09:26 PM

From an EW perspective the next downside key level for the DOW is not until 12391--a break of that level would confirm for the DOW that the rally is over. Before that is its uptrend line from March 14th, currently near 12430.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 2:09:14 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. federal spent more money in March than in any other month ever, the Treasury reported Wednesday.

The federal budget deficit widened to $96.3 billion in March, compared with $85.3 billion last March, the government said.

The deficit was slightly larger than the $95 billion estimated by the Congressional Budget Office.

Halfway through the fiscal year, the budget deficit has totaled $258.4 billion, down about 15% from $302.9 billion in the same period a year ago. The improvement largely reflects lower spending on hurricane relief and higher tax collections.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:07:39 PM

YM 12556 is 50 dma. You can tell that is the weak link.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:06:40 PM

If you want to short, use YM, not NQ.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:06:35 PM

Simon Property Group (SPG) alert! $112.45 -1.78% ... after trade at initial put entry point of $112.23.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:04:10 PM

Below 1812.50, support is 1808/1809, which I expect to hold.

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 2:03:54 PM

So much for the bounce--leaving it as a correction to this morning's decline. Now keep an eye on the key downside levels I've had on the charts as a break below those would be strong indications we've seen the end of the rally.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 2:03:11 PM

This is the big test now for NQ, 1812 is weekly pivot. Remember that we have opex next week, and you know the game.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:02:53 PM

SIL $15.32 +0.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 2:02:27 PM

10 hit the bid on the SIL-DC at $0.50.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 2:01:01 PM

Market didn't like what they found in the FED minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:57:56 PM

SEMIconductor Bullish % (BPSEMI) at this Link

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 1:52:14 PM

Here's an updated NDX 60-min chart that shows the two possibilities from here. We either finished a small 4th wave correction with this morning's low, in which case the upside Fib target is near 1828 for the 5th wave of the move up from March 29th, or the current bounce off this morning's low is just a correction and the decline will continue once it's done. A break of 1795 is needed by the bears and a push back above 1812 is needed by the bulls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:51:20 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $34.58 -0.71% ... juuust under WEEKLY R1 $34.65.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 1:46:38 PM

The reason I am putting my neck out (I always do anyway) is that the semis have barely started kicking in and they look very bullish. This is a far cry from earlier this year. Techs are going higher IMHO. I will only change that tune if we lose the 50 DMA on volume.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 1:45:24 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The New York Stock Exchange's regulatory arm censured and temporarily barred a research analyst for trading violations involving stocks that he covered, such as making trades that ran counter to his rating on a stock.

NYSE Regulation, a unit of Big Board parent NYSE Euronext (NYX) , said Wednesday that Paul Starsia, formerly a research analyst with Swiss American Securities, kept two brokerage accounts outside his employer, disclosing the existence of one of them but not of the other.

Starsia, who couldn't be reached for comment, used these accounts to make trades in stocks that he covered as an analyst, the NYSE said. At least one of these trades took place during a "no-trade window" and a number of trades were inconsistent with Starsia's recommendation on the stock in question, the NYSE said.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:43:09 PM

DJ- Bernanke: Downplays China's Holdings of US Assets

Sees little risk of China US asset selloff.

China can't build its reserves indefinitely.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:37:55 PM

Keep an eye on those SIL-DC (SIL Apr $15 Calls) ... that's where the OI is at.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:36:54 PM

Day trade short target adjustment alert ... for the 1/2 Apex Silver Mines (AMEX:SIL) $15.40 +1.51% ... RAISE target to $15.06

Marc Eckelberry : 4/11/2007 1:36:37 PM

No complicated tea leaves, this is just a normal pullback to support from overbought conditions. A YM close above 12574 and NQ 1819 would confirm that the bulls are still completely in charge.

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 1:34:33 PM

After breaking below its uptrend line from March 14th, it's possible we'll see the RUT bounce back up to it for a retest, currently near 813. That would be a healthy retracement of this morning's drop. It of course may never make it up that high in its bounce. The bearish divergences shown on the chart doesn't inspire bullishness here. Link

If this morning's drop was the completion of a pullback correction then I show upside Fib projections for the next leg up at 818.56 (and higher but not likely). If it takes a little while to get up there, that Fib level crosses the broken uptrend line on Friday. A drop below 804 is needed to negate that bullish wave count potential.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:19:50 PM

If we can get a short-term long liquidator in SIL to take some profits, we'll get some action.

SIL $15.39 +1.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:18:36 PM

LEND $9.65 +5.34% ... what action intraday!

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:16:53 PM

GS $208.15 -0.43% ... after direct hit of WEEKLY Pivot in late-morning trade. MONTHLY 38.2% retracement right here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:15:19 PM

XBD.X 240.12 +0.06% ... inches green.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:14:42 PM

Bernanke: Light Hedge Fund Regulation 'Largely Justified'

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 1:13:38 PM

Looks like the Boyz came back from lunch in a buying mood. Program buying hit all the indices at once. Unless the spike down this morning was just another finish to another consolidation (wave-c down in an a-b-c correction), it's beginning to look like a 2nd wave correction here instead of a 4th. That would mean this morning's low finished the 1st wave down.

Looking at the NDX chart, two equal legs up in today's bounce would be at 1811.42. A 62% retracement is at 1809.69 so keep an eye on the 1810-1811 area for a high to the bounce. Much higher than that and we just might be looking at new highs on the way.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:12:44 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 1:11:03 PM

I use the monthly and weekly jtHMA to "trade" my 401(k) but of course those are much longer type trades so I am not concerned about the daily/120minute/60minute gyrations.

I use the monthly as my guide and the weekly to enter or exit.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 1:07:35 PM

Here is an updated jtHMA spreadsheet with some notes as to how to use it to trade. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 1:03:40 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 12:55:12 PM

They upgraded somebody else in the space the other day too. Noted it here in MM.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 12:54:43 PM

Friedman Billings Ramsey's thoughts on Ameritrade (AMTD) Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 12:53:33 PM

Ameritrade (AMTD) upgraded by Friedman Billings. Firm downgraded shares on 01/16/07 @ $18.00, so a change of posture here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 12:50:08 PM

Remember, the XBD.X is an EQUAL weighted index.

Each stock as "important" as the other, regardless of market cap.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 12:49:26 PM

Ameritrade (AMTD) $16.18 +3.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 12:47:50 PM

XBD.X 239.69 -0.11% ... still "holds the fort" with no trade at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 12:46:46 PM

RUT.X, then INDU/DIA only majors in my WEEKLY Pivot Matrix to see trade at WEEKLY Pivots.

BIX.X juuuust under its WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 12:08:19 PM

Now seeing "bad tick" for USO earlier this morning to $50.00.

Current session low $50.22.

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 12:07:55 PM

The bounce in the RUT has become sharper to the upside and therefore there is the possibility it will finish earlier than a sideways consolidation would have taken. If this is followed by another push lower then it will be set up a stronger bounce this afternoon. A rally back above 814 would negate the bearish wave count. Link

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 11:42:42 AM

When I look at the other indices, and I'll use the RUT as an example, I think the DOW may have finished its rally at Tuesday morning's high as a truncated high for the DOW. That would mean the current bounce is probably the 4th wave of a larger degree 1st wave down. Link

It simply means less stair-stepping lower as compared to what I showed for the DOW. The RUT's pattern suggests a consolidation near the lows followed by one more drop before setting up a larger corrective bounce, which could start later this afternoon, depending on how long it takes to finish wave-1 down on the chart. Finding support at or near 804, the high on March 30th and near the top of the gap up on April 3rd, would make sense.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 11:37:43 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 11:37:19 AM

I do believe Oil is setting up for another move downward but may find support around its 50 and 100 EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 11:32:59 AM

I would like to see the SPX return to its 50EMA before testing yearly highs. Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 11:31:25 AM

AD line is a very bearish -1165 and we are into a sell the rallies, although I do believe we have seen all the tradeable moves for today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 11:22:45 AM

USO $50.58 -0.05% Link ... session low/high so far $50.00/$51.00.

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 11:21:34 AM

This DOW 5-min chart shows what I mean when I say the market should stair-step lower to "unwind" the EW count. Assuming we started the 3rd of a 3rd wave down from Monday's high, this shows how the count could progress for the rest of the day. Link

It would set up a larger correction tomorrow which is interesting since it'll be Thursday, the "head fake" day before opex week. I'm beginning to think we could see a down week next week which is not the usual pattern of bullish weeks during opex.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 11:21:14 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 11:13:58 AM

SPY $144.00 -0.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 11:13:34 AM

VIX.X 13.72 +8.20% ... after kiss of WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 11:07:14 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices will probably fall this year for the first time in at least 38 years, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.

In its monthly housing outlook, the real estate industry group said tighter lending standards will cut into home sales even further than it had been projecting, driving prices lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 11:07:08 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 11:06:08 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Applications for mortgages again fell last week as interest rates rose, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.

The number of applications filed at major U.S. lenders thus dropped for a fourth straight week, as adjustable-rate mortgages fell to the lowest share of applications in nearly four years.

The total number of applications filed -- including purchase loans and refinancing loans - was 0.4% lower on a week-to-week basis, but they were up about 11% compared with the same week a year ago.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 11:04:53 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Today is just what the doctor ordered, the needed retracement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 11:00:50 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs Into Refineries up 231,000 barrels/day to 15.07 million b/d.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:58:28 AM

AMEX:SIL $15.48 +2.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:57:40 AM

Day trade short alert for 1/2 position in shares of Apex Silver Mines (AMEX:SIL) at the bid of $15.48, LIMIT $15.45, with STOP at $15.57 to begin. TARGET $14.95.

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 10:54:47 AM

There's certainly very little question that the move down is a 3rd of a 3rd wave down--they're sharp and strong. With the DOW now taking out 12496 it confirms the likelihood that the bounce has topped. That means we should now be at the beginning of the next big decline. It will of course not be in a straight line, especially with bulls emboldened to believe buying the dips is the right thing to do. That will cause large buying spikes on the way down so don't be bashful about taking profits along the way. For now we should still expect stair-stepping lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:54:20 AM

EIA: SPR Stockpiles up 58,000 to 688.66 million barrels.

First "build" of SPR we've seen since May 12, 2006.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:52:25 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Stockpiles down 1.26 million barrels to 38.85 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:51:19 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles up 707,000 barrels to 40.79 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:50:17 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles up 962,000 barrels to 58.41 million barrels.

Tab Gilles : 4/11/2007 10:47:12 AM

$NATGAS Natural gas was up at the start of Wednesday's trading. Natural gas for May delivery was at $7.903, up 3.4 cents on the day. Prices soared on Tuesday.

Note that $NATGAS appears to be setting up an "Inverse H&S" pattern.

Between the Nat Gas cartel talks, a cold spring, hurricane season worries and electric power demand for natural gas increases during the summer cooling season. Natural Gas prices should rise.

Heres an EIA chart: Link

A stock that looks interesting and closely tied with $NATGAS is NGAS Resources(NGAS) - $7.05 Change: + $0.20 ,+(2.92%) Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:46:50 AM

Not bullish

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:46:24 AM

BIX.X alert! 381.55 -0.55% ... MONTHLY 61.8% Pivot retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:44:38 AM

That could have been the "dirtiest" trick on USO, that little dip to $50.00 (getting some stops).

USO $50.86 +0.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:41:31 AM

EIA: Weekly Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity % rose to 88.37% from prior week's 87.03%.

Analysis: Despite greater capacity increases at refiners, its starting to be utilized.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:39:35 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity up 55,000 barrels/day to 17.455 million barrels/day.

This is not common to see.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:37:47 AM

My Crude Oil # Days of Supply slips to 21.96 from last week's 22.11.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:37:11 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries rose by 282,000 barrels/day to 15.4 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:35:43 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles up 170,000 barrels to 118.12 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:34:39 AM

EIA: Weekly Reformulated Gasoline Stockpiles up 529,000 barrels to 2 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:33:55 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles down 5.47 million barrels to 199.72 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:33:07 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 678,000 barrels to 333.4 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:31:21 AM

USO $50.74 +0.24% ... bids on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:28:36 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $116.50 -0.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:28:17 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $50.30 -0.61% .... EIA data due out in a couple of minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:27:31 AM


DJ- Oil and gas giant says it expects results in the quarter to benefit from a $700 million gain on the sale of its interest in manufacturing assets in the Netherlands, partially offset by the effects of lower refinery utilization.

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 10:26:10 AM

Instead of a corrective 4th wave pullback for the DOW, as I showed on the 15-min chart earlier (9:55) it looks like it was a 1-2, 1-2 wave count to the downside and now we're getting the 3rd of a 3rd wave down. Link

This is why I was warning about the possibility of an immediate drop. This wave count says we'll get a stair-stepping lower once the spike down finishes. Yesterday I mentioned we would get a quick drop to the 12500 area under this wave count possibility and then stair-step a little lower from there before getting a little larger corrective bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:25:38 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:23:48 AM


DJ- Central bankers will have to make difficult decisions on interest rates in the months ahead, though global economic growth should remain broad based and inflationary pressures have eased, International Monetary Fund says.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:23:11 AM


DJ- Anglo-Swiss mining company says deal to sell its aluminum interests to private-equity firm Apollo Management is slated to close later this quarter. Price tag is slightly higher than some had been expecting.

OTCF:XSRAF $55.25 ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:21:34 AM


DJ- Alcoa kicks off earnings season, reports 1Q net income of $662 million, or 75c a share, on sales of $7.91 billion. Earnings from continuing operations, excluding charges, total 79c. Analysts expected EPS of 76c on revenue of $7.6 billion.

AA $35.51 +1.74% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:20:23 AM


DJ- Retailer says same-store sales for the five-week period ended Saturday increase 12%, buoyed by an earlier Easter. Target had projected March growth of 11%-13%, with same-store sales for both March and April increasing 4% to 6%.

TGT $60.06 -0.82% Link ...

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 10:19:20 AM

The little bounce off this morning's low looks corrective. Now it's starting to drop lower again as I type. Not looking too good for the bulls at the moment.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:18:52 AM


DJ- Goldman Sachs names Sarah Friar as firm's main analyst to cover Microsoft, Oracle and SAP, replacing Chris Sailer, who was serving on an interim basis. Friar previously covered Adobe, BMC and other software makers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:18:02 AM


DJ- Municipal securities group of UBS Investment Bank, a unit of banking giant UBS, is laying off about 35 to 40 people. Staff reductions are mainly based in New York City and cut across 'all levels and all ranks.'

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 10:17:15 AM

Notice how the $RUT 60 and 120 minute charts have gone red (on the chart I posted in the 10:14 post)? You could wait for the daily to go red then once the 60 minute turns back green get long. This would be buying the dips.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:16:44 AM


DJ- After years of being a shrinking segment of the nearly $4 trillion market for mortgage bonds guaranteed by housing finance agencies, Ginnie Mae bonds are starting to grow again and expected to continue doing so as subprime market shrinks.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:16:01 AM


DJ- New Century Financial is putting its last major holdings on the Chapter 11 auction block, but no prospective buyer has yet stepped up to place a bid on the mortgage-loan origination business.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 10:14:24 AM

Here is your jtHMA spreadsheet. Notice how the US$ has gone green on the 60 and 120 minute charts. Here is how you could use this SS to guide your trading.

1. Use the monthly and weekly charts to guide your overall trading so for the $ you would stay short.
2. Now wait for the 60/120/daily charts to turn green.
3. Once the 60 minute turns back red you could take a short

This is a way to sell the rallies. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:14:56 AM


DJ- Under terms of the agreement, each North Valley share will be converted into the right to receive 0.7364 of a share of Sterling and $2.80 in cash. Deal represents a premium of 1.1% to North Valley's closing stock price yesterday.

SBIB $11.27 -0.26% Link ...

NOVB $24.65 -0.84% Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:12:23 AM


DJ- In what's considered its first major overhaul since its formation a decade ago, Citigroup says it will save $2.1 billion in 2007 by eliminating 17,000 positions and streamlining its technology. Restructuring will eliminate certain layers of management and reduce its corporate center. More than 9,500 jobs will be moved to lower-cost locations. COO Druskin says Citi will see its revenue climb faster than expenses this year.

C $52.03 -0.70% Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:08:05 AM

This may have been a news item (opinion) yesterday that had Simon Property Group (SPG) $113.61 -0.80% reversing gains. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:05:07 AM

Caterpillar Maintains $0.30/share Quarterly Dividend Rate

Press Release Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 10:04:13 AM

Interestingly the TRIN is 0.83, which in not bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 4/11/2007 10:01:29 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 9:55:25 AM

The DOW has dropped down to the bottom of a potential expanding triangle, which could be the end of a 4th wave correction from Monday's high. Be careful if you're short. A drop below 12500 is needed by the bears. Link

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 9:49:45 AM

Correction to my last post on the RUT--a break below 810, not 808, would confirm the trend line break, which it's currently doing.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:48:39 AM

AD line is now at -610 and we have our direction.

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 9:47:23 AM

The RUT is dropping down towards its uptrend line from March 14th, currently near 811.70. It should offer support for at least a bounce. A break of it, confirmed with a break below 808 is needed to say the bears have the ball. Right now the bears are just pushing the bulls back.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:46:47 AM

Gold is breaking its overnight high and Oil is breaking its ON low. The more I see Oil's price action the more confident I become closing my long USO position was the right move. Unfortunately though Oil affects the price of Gold, not as much as the $ does but it has an affect.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:42:40 AM

I would not be thinking long here and if short realize that you cannot marry the trade and stay nimble. DUH! Like you can ever ignore that advise.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:39:16 AM

Here are your daily opens. You could use ES's weekly open as your "stay short under this point." Link

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 9:36:26 AM

Near the close yesterday the NDX jumped up out of its sideways triangle from the past two days. This morning it has now dropped back inside. That's not a good sign for the bulls. It could mean we'll see a broadening formation instead of contracting, meaning the possibility for another leg up after pulling back, but regardless the pattern is turning more bearish because of it.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:36:17 AM

VIX opens within its PDR but is climbing.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:34:18 AM

AD line is -5 and AD volume basically 0. No direction.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:28:02 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup Inc., which failed to fully capitalize on one of the most prosperous eras for U.S. financial-services companies in recent years, announced a sweeping expense-reduction plan on Wednesday that includes 17,000 job cuts and a $1.38 billion pre-tax charge.

The financial-services giant also will take an additional $600 million in pre-tax charges spread during the last three quarters of the year. Citigroup, which is thinning its back-office ranks and moving another 9,500 jobs to lower-cost locations, said the cuts are aimed at reducing $2.1 billion in expenses. Analysts estimate the savings will translate into a 6% boost to earnings by the end of 2009.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:26:34 AM

Dateline WSJ - Nasdaq Stock Market Inc., in a bid to break into the options-trading business, is in talks to buy the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, according to people familiar with the matter.

A move to buy the country's third-largest options exchange by contracts traded would give the Nasdaq a sizable foothold in the options business, which is the Philadelphia exchange's forte. Exchanges like Nasdaq are rushing into the business, in which investors trade the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security in the future.

Options are popular among both individual investors and hedge funds as a way to manage risks in a portfolio, as well as to make bets with borrowed money.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:21:49 AM

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- The chief executive of KB Home (KBH) , one of the nation's largest home builders, said Tuesday he expects the housing slump to worsen, even though sales have improved in some areas of the U.S.

"I think we're still early in the cycle here," Jeffrey Mezger said. "I think it's going to be tougher for a little while before it gets better, but there will come a day when it gets better, because the underlying demographics in job growth are there."

Mezger was named president and CEO of KB Home in November after the company's former chief executive, Bruce Karatz, stepped down amid a stock option scandal.

The Los Angeles company differs from many other home builders. KB doesn't build a house until it has a buyer under contract. Other companies complete construction, then seek buyers.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:17:28 AM

Bernanake is scheduled to speak in New York at 1:00EDT. According to Action Economics, the Fed chief may be questioned on the policy outlook and recent statement changes in the questions and answers session. Also please remember the FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00EDT today.

Keene Little : 4/11/2007 9:16:12 AM

We've had a nice lift in the equity futures since the European markets opened, pushing them all back into the green after dropping into the red overnight. The AA eranings report did nothing for the futures yesterday so that's not likely to have any influence for the cash opening.

Short term, looking at what looks like a bull flag over the past two days, the market could press higher. The risk is a sudden drop out of these consolidation patterns and I think that risk is building. The DOW 12600 area is still resistance but if the bulls can push this higher then 12635-12650 would be the next potential upside target.

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:15:33 AM

The commodities I watch and Tbonds stayed within their PDRs overnight and are not giving any hints as to direction either. Notice how range bound TBonds have been lately. Link

Jane Fox : 4/11/2007 9:12:19 AM

Good morning all. Equity markets had a bullish overnight session with both ES and NQ testing their respective PDHs. I suspect we will see mostly sideways trading today with little direction. Link

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