Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:37:02 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made with updated/reminder stops and targets at this Link

I will be out of the office next week.

Bought back both the CAT-EA today (04/13/07) and would sell them covered again >=$0.90. Earnings next Friday (4/20/07).

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 10:51:00 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 10:40:38 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/13/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 5:08:47 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Have a great weekend.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 5:02:35 PM

YM's weekly candle looks like a hanging man doji with a small body and large shadow under it. Looks like a reversal candlestick there.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 4:57:44 PM

Just realized I'm missing this week's candle for ER. Nevermind about the doji finish.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 4:42:02 PM

I'm having trouble pulling up my GOOG chart on QCharts but it didn't change any from my last post ( Link ) and CME didn't either but here it is based on the closing price: Link

Gold has gone about as far as it can go without spitting me out at of my short (stop is at 691.30). I have 693 as a key level because I think that would be enough confirmation that the top trend line is not going to hold it back. Much depends on what the US dollar does. I keep thinking the dollar is getting ready to bounce and then it drops a little lower. But hey, my idea to short the Canadian dollar this morning would have made a few pennies so maybe this is the turn. Gold 60-min chart update: Link

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 4:15:35 PM

The 4 indices are each within spitting distance of the upside targets I gave earlier for where this rally could fail. Having finished just shy of those targets is why I think we could see a minor pop up on Monday morning.

Updated 60-min roadmaps:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 4:12:27 PM

XLNX $26.19 +1.15% ... today's SMH component winner.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 4:10:59 PM

Good gravy! ... Merck (MRK) $50.21 +8.30% today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 4:04:56 PM

I need to run over to accountant's office. I'll update things for next week later this evening.

I made some MM Profile adjustments today as I will be out of the office next week.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 3:58:45 PM

The indices are moving right up into their Fib/trend line targets, in unison. Best guess for Monday is a flat open, perhaps a minor push higher and then start to sell off. I don't think we'll see a big down open although since we're finishing up at the target levels that's a distinct possibility. I just don't like betting that way. But certainly I'd be concerned about carrying longs over the weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:57:18 PM

iShares Russell 2000 (AMEX:IWM) $81.29 +0.55% ... probes WEEKLY R1 (81.26).

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:55:42 PM

ishares Russell Growth (AMEX:IWO) $82.89 +0.60% ... well above that benchmark high of $81.59.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:53:45 PM

iShares Russell Value (AMEX:IWN) $82.36 +0.48% ... challenges its 03/22/07 high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:51:38 PM

slap a cl07m symbol with Net%, 5-dayNet%, 20-dayNET% against each other.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:48:49 PM

Forecasting a close on the USO at $51.50 with USO $51.62.

Next Week's WEEKLY Pivots would be ... $49.13, $50.32, Piv= $51.20, $52.39, $53.27.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:42:42 PM

18 minutes until cash session close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:41:52 PM

Three little pigs scratching their heads with CDE eating down $4.27 to 94,918

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 3:40:21 PM

I showed a chart of the NYSE vs. its volume in Wednesday's Market Wrap and how volume has been dropping during its rally from the March lows. After volume spiked up briefly on this week's decline it has now fallen off to even lower lows. This while NYSE is making a new high again. If you looked at nothing else, this chart should scare the bulls. Link

One of the key technical indicators is volume as volume leads price. When you see volume increase and then price makes a move--trade that way. When volume dries up during a move get ready for a reversal. This chart could not be clearer about what's coming. Do you see the lower volume on March 14th when the NYSE made a lower low? That was followed by the strong rally.

Many out there scoff at this as pointing to a topping in the rally, I guess because it's different this time. That's usually said when someone's bias is getting in the way of good technical analysis. This is of course not a guarantee that price will reverse, as no indicator is 100%. You just need to play the odds and right now this is setting up for a reversal. Then we'll have to see if it does and how much.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:39:19 PM

VIX.X 12.28 -3.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:39:05 PM

CAT $66.69 +0.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:38:43 PM

Let's do this before the close ... 2 part trade alert)

I'll be out of the office next week so ....

Swing trade covered call buy back alert for the two (2) Caterpillar CAT May $72.50 Calls (CAT-EA) at the offer of $0.28.

Once close, then place an order to sell them again, but for $0.90/contract

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:28:12 PM

03:15 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 3:26:16 PM

Its been a while since I showed these two charts but they never cease to amaze me. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:17:28 PM

03:15 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:06:44 PM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 363.97 +2.26% ... inches above both 12/05/06 and 02/23/07 relative highs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:04:38 PM

Each time CDE has fallen below its 50-day SMA, it has been a good short. I've got 50-day SMA at $4.286.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 3:02:33 PM

Thanks for the reminder on the VIX Jeff. It has pulled back to the uptrend line from February and is set up for a powerful move back to the upside (by its wave count). That supports my contention the equity market is perched on the edge of a cliff. Could get interesting soon if this follows through. It's a great time for a few longer term puts since we'll need to see an immediate turn lower next week. If it doesn't then simply cover and go the other way. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 3:03:37 PM

Sellers lined up like pigs at a trough under 102,125 @ $4.27 in CDE. It wasn't there this morning. Let's hope that it is the last bit of liquidity for shorts to buy.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:54:30 PM

SPG $113.08 +1.68% ... "in the zone" WEEKLY Pivot/Monthly 38.2%

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:51:00 PM

VIX.X 12.20 -4.01% ... could see that one coming

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 2:48:47 PM

Dan, if your NQ stop was at 1817.75 as suggested, you are sitting pretty fat on the 1816 long...You owe me a few beers (along with the YG long at 639). You get an A+ for bravery.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:48:24 PM

Selling cash/buying futures

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:48:03 PM

Sell Program Premium SPY $145.24

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 2:47:48 PM

If you like the idea of a lottery put play going into next week, stick in an order now with an aggressive price and see if it gets taken.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:47:24 PM

USO ... daily interval chart with last month's and current month's Pivot retracement. Cursor box set at April's 03/20/07 expiration.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 2:47:22 PM

ER and NQ going crazy.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 2:46:26 PM

Thar she blows!

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 2:45:45 PM

If OEX gets past 670, the short covering will be INTENSE.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 2:45:24 PM

Hello, here come the end of day buyers. When markets sell at open and buy at close, the trend is UP.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 2:44:01 PM

I don't know Jeff, but I do know that I should have bought every single test of 50 DMA on pullbacks...I actually bought it twice, but never held on for long. I missed out on a fortune. Now I am reluctant to chase it.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 2:41:53 PM

Same with GOOG--not much happening today. It'll probably get pinched into a tight coil going into next week's earnings. Link

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 2:39:35 PM

CME has been dormant today so no change in its chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:39:26 PM

The USO's MONTHLY Pivot is $51.78.

March's MONTHLY Pivot was $50.00 on the nose. 03/20/07 benchmark to last month's settlement was USO $48.46. Right on March's MONTHLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:36:34 PM

Marc ... where was April's cl07j MONTHLY Pivot last month? cl07j settled $56.73. Maybe we could build a bias into Friday's expiration.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 2:35:21 PM

Marc I agree on Oil, it is not the time to be long or short. Funny but the jtHMA spreadsheet I have created says the same thing.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 2:35:03 PM

The NYSE has been steadily pushed higher and could do a retest of its broken uptrend line from March 14th, now obviously above this week's high. It's currently near a potential Fib target near 9532 (which is based on the move up from the March 14 low where the 2nd leg = 62% of the 1st leg) up to just shy of 9550. It'll be important for the bulls to drive the oscillators up through their downtrend lines (getting there with MACD). Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 2:34:12 PM

BTW that move would be up not down.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 2:34:02 PM

But that might not be until June...tough call. I am staying away from oil right now.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 2:33:48 PM

AD volume still climbing and VIX still falling. WE may have a nice move today yet.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 2:32:59 PM

crack spread. Once the balance is restored, we could see a pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:32:34 PM

We could Marc ... Haven't check short interest on the contract.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:31:42 PM

Fed's Fisher: Fed Should Be Mindful Of Ethanol's Inflation Impact

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:31:06 PM

Fed's Fisher: German, Japanese Econs Have Turned Corner On Growth

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 2:29:47 PM

I also recall very well (since I was trading it) how we hit the 50 low right before expiration as well in January. So odds are we could do the same next week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:29:35 PM

Yes, but not March.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 2:28:47 PM

Jeff, April contract sold off 5 days in a row prior to expiration: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:27:13 PM

So you're long gold and silver Keene?

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:25:10 PM

Who's there? ... $4.27

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 2:24:50 PM

Jeff, I give Greenspan credit for knowing how to play the political game. The whole Federal Reserve system is broken. All they do is chase the market and make it worse.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:22:51 PM

Coeur D' Alene (CDE) $4.26 +3.64% ... knock, knock ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:19:40 PM

Check out cl06k from last year at this time. No WAY we see that action though.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:16:34 PM

Actually Marc, March expiration week saw contract rise last 5-days prior to expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:11:40 PM

Keene ... do you give any credit to Greenspan for housing prices rise since 1980?

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:10:19 PM

Was that Guitar George?

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 2:09:41 PM

How about a drop in oil next week as we get into contract rotation? So far this year, that has been the pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:07:56 PM

Coeur D' Alene (CDE) $4.24 +3.16% ... plenty of overhead supply in this one. Partials only, but commodity and sector continue to strengthen. No option strike to mess with at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:05:54 PM

EWJ $14.56 -0.47% ...

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 2:04:37 PM

Keene, in this mornings local paper, there are over 800 foreclosure notices for Nashville. For a small metropolitan city, this is a lot of bad news.

That it is George. And this is happening at the peak in our economy with good employment numbers. One can only imagine how much worse it could get later this year if the spring season doesn't go well and when mortgage resets peak (and continue well into 2008). If the economy turns down then good hard working people will be hurt by all this too if they have to sell.

It's really sad what has happened and it just makes me angry to know the Fed caused this. They're supposed to protect its citizens and they completely and utterly disregarded their responsibility when it came to making some tough decisions. Greenspan will be knocked off his pedestal when this is all done (the attacks have already started).

And with that I'll get off my soap box (again).

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:03:24 PM

Two more sell program premiums this morning, PRICE action higher?

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:02:58 PM

At highs with overhead supply limited and above Max Pains? I'm not leaning short.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 2:06:03 PM

Good charts, but I don't get much negative div on the dailies. The Q's could hit +45 before any of the weekly takes effect. We are overbought, no doubt and many traders are leaning short right now, hoping for a mid April sell-off like last year. I think we will get a few more traps before that kicks in. In my view, May will be bullish. NYSE is quietly making new all time highs, now above 9500. No blow-off top there. The flip side is new highs on scant volume, except at key support and reversals. There was volume on that bounce yesterday. Today's selling volume on QQQQ is paltry: bulls are still in charge and there are MANY shorts out there.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:01:01 PM

VIX.X 12.29 -3.30% ... 0.16 to WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 2:00:32 PM

SPY $145.09 +0.29% ... 20-cents to WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 1:58:33 PM

Those Pivots are meaningful aren't they? Need the break on SPG below $110.45.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 1:55:52 PM

Simon Property Group (SPG) 30-minute interval chart with my MONTHLY Pivot retracement and QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels at this Link

Can probably associate the SPG:SPY Relative Strength chart with SPG's MONTHLY R1 and S1.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 1:55:32 PM

The one consistent thing I'm seeing between the indices is the idea that the 2nd leg up from yesterday's low may only make it up to 62% of the 1st leg up (if a little throw-over above the top of their respective wedges is where the rallies will fail) and that brings into question what the NDX might do. Its equivalent 62% Fib level is 1818.13 which would effectively be a double top against the past week's highs. It would not be back up to the top of its wedge pattern. Keep an eye on that level if the others are hitting their targets and looking ready to top out.

Tab Gilles : 4/13/2007 1:51:58 PM

Thank you Keene on the Q chart.

Here is a daily chart with some annotations. If the Q breaks under the 50 and 100-sma you could see some selling volume pick up. I like the QQQQ Sept 44 puts (QQQUR), the ProShares QID and the Profunds USPIX. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 1:51:17 PM

Simon Property Group (SPG) $112.61 +1.25% ... did just kiss its MONTHLY Pivot ($110.45) this morning. Session highs here.

Now MONTHLY 38.2% at $113.23 becomes "key"

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 1:45:03 PM

The RUT could retest its broken uptrend line from March 14th with a little throw-over above the top of its wedge, giving an upside target near 819-820. A 2nd leg up that achieves 62% of the 1st leg up off yesterday's low is at 819.72. Link

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 1:39:44 PM

SPX looks the same as the DOW--a 2nd leg up from yesterday's low that achieves 62% of the 1st leg up gives us a Fib target of 1454 and just above the top of its wedge. If this is achieved by the end of the day today I'll be taking home a few lottery April put plays. It sure seems to me that this Thursday/Friday is setting up the head fake move as we head into opex week. Link

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 1:34:19 PM

Nice little buy program kicking in.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 1:32:01 PM

01:10 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 1:30:14 PM

Good observation on the diamond formations Tab. The current formation on NDX (Qs) could also be interpretated as a H&S top with a mutated double head (otherwise known as a bearish double top). The down-sloping neckline makes it that much more bearish. If the neckline were to be broken by the end of the month (about 41.70 by then, and near its 200-dma) then the downside objective out of the pattern would be about 38.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 1:28:05 PM

If your trading forward month CRACK, you'd BETTER be chating the June/June relationships. NOT the continuous $GASO/$WTIC I show from time to time.

Expirations will/can have GREAT impact.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 1:24:48 PM

Reminder: May Crude Oil expires next Friday. VERY IMPORTANT if trading May/June oil futures with HIGH leverage.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 1:23:29 PM

USO reversing gains $51.56 -0.017% ... after session high of $52.04. Session low on 04/09/07 was $50.02 ... NEVER traded $50.00.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 1:23:11 PM

The banks (BIX) are still green but the brokers (XBD), including Mother MER (thanks Denise), have gone red. The brokers came close but so far haven't been able to quite get back up to their 50-dma, currently at 241.27. The high on Tuesday was 240.88 and 240.56 today.

Tab Gilles : 4/13/2007 1:19:57 PM

QQQQ This weekly chart of the QQQQ has a Diamond formation forming. Question is will the QQQQ repeat what it did last year and trend down or breakout and up? Link

$BPNDX Link $NASI Link

How much of an influence does oil have on stock prices? If oil continues to rise will equities selloff? Link

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 1:18:57 PM

The DOW has been stronger and this morning's quick pullback was very small so that leaves open the possibility we'll see a stronger rally above the top of its ascending wedge. But if the 2nd leg up goes to 62% of the 1st leg (the bounce off yesterday's low) then we get an upside Fib target of 12632, right near the top of its wedge. It continues to struggle with the 12596 number though--getting a sharp pullback as I type this up. But, like the NDX, the pattern doesn't turn bearish until yesterday's low is taken out. It is starting to smell a little bit like distribution though. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 1:12:30 PM

01:10 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 1:09:03 PM

If NDX can continue to push higher and gives us two equal legs up from yesterday's low then that gives us 1828.17 as the upside Fib target. That could be hit this afternoon if they could somehow light a fire under this thing, or more likely on Monday (especially if the bullish headlines pull in a lot of traders off the sidelines). Link

That kind of move would set up a decline for the rest of the week (with bounces of course) and this pattern tells me it's possible we're going to see a lot of traders leaning the wrong way (bullish) into opex week. Much higher than 1830 though and I'd be looking to the long side. If you bought NQ near 1818 this morning and are hanging onto it, I'd have my stop no lower than that right now. A reversal around 1843 would be a nice trade and give you some profit to play with in trying the short side.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 1:06:51 PM

CDE $4.20 +2.18% ... $4.27 probably a "key level" today. Hasn't traded a DAILY R2 since Monday 04/02/07.

WEEKLY Pivot $4.25.

Stock has seen trade last two weeks at a WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 1:00:14 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 361.59 +1.59% ... probes 6-month highs. Closed 338.24 on 12/29/06. Up 6.9% YTD.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:55:26 PM

Be on the alert if VIX.X gets BELOW Weekly S1 and SPY above WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:54:19 PM

VIX.X 12.40 -2.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:54:29 PM

Short squeeze/naked call alert ... for the SPY $144.93 +0.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:51:16 PM

Swing trade COVERED Put Cancel order alert ... Please cancel the prior order to SELL the ishares Japan EWJ April $14 Puts (EWJ-PN) for >=$0.35.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:50:08 PM

While we have the RIGHT to sell the EWJ at $15.00, I/we may have paid $0.60 to do so ($15.00 - $0.60)= $14.40

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:48:04 PM

Swing Trade Put exit alert ... for the four (4) iShares Japan EWJ April $15 Puts (EWJ-PO) at the bid of $0.45.

EWJ $14.55 -0.54% ...

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 12:47:37 PM

AD volume to new daily highs and VIX hovering around daily lows. Don't ever be short while the AD volume is making new daily highs and the VIX is hovering around daily lows. The odds are that you will be stopped out or at least the market will have no follow through to the downside.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:46:42 PM

Based on my being out of the office next week, I'm going to suggest doing this for my MM profiles.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 12:44:11 PM

These are bullish but please remember bullish in the context of an AD line at +83!

I am starting to watch the p/c ratio so if anyone out there has any ideas as to how to read this indicator I would sure appreciate the help. Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 12:41:36 PM

The open numbers are telling you to stay short. I will report later if the internals agree or not. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:38:46 PM

Alert! eBay (EBAY) $34.64 +1.73% ... it HAS broken above $34.00 today. Can buyers hold conviction at the close? (see 01/25/07 MM postings) Link , 01/29/07 Wrap Link perhaps 05/25/06 too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:31:21 PM

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 513.45 -0.82% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:29:52 PM

Nikkei down 1%, auto and retail shares fall

Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:28:40 PM

Asian markets were mixed to modestly weak in Japan on Friday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:27:03 PM

Thinking ... things were looking pretty good for the EWJ puts when dollar fell earlier this morning, but ramp back in the dollar vs. yen may provide support in here into Friday's expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:25:23 PM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.52 -0.75% ... EWJ-PO $0.45 x $0.50/$0.55.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:24:30 PM

Japan's OMI: Japan Has No Plan To Raise Forex Issue At G7

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 12:23:22 PM

It's starting to get a little weak again, especially the techs. From an EW perspective the important lows are yesterday's--if they break then the rally is finished. Until that happens, another pullback today could set up the final rally leg so don't get super bearish on a drop today. I'd continue to look to buy the dip until we see a break below yesterday's lows.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:20:05 PM

Italy's Finance Minister: G7 Very Positive On World Economy Outlook

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:18:53 PM

G7 Official: G7 Statement Likely To Keep Same Forex Language

DJ- Finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of Seven leading industrialized countries are likely to leave the language of their statement on foreign exchange unchanged from their February communique, a G7 official said Friday.

G7 finance leaders are due to meet at 2:30 p.m. EDT in Washington and to issue a statement later Friday, after U.S. markets close. At a meeting in Essen, Germany, two months ago, they repeated that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals and that excess volatility was "undesirable."

They also said a move in China's effective foreign exchange rate was desirable and launched a concerted effort to curb the growth of carry trades, which European officials believe have been a key factor in pushing the euro to record highs against the Japanese yen.

"The draft (communique) has the same language as Essen and it should stay the same," the G7 official said Friday, on condition of anonymity, referring to the forex language.

He added that, following pressure from the International Monetary Fund, G7 leaders were likely to call for increased representation for emerging countries within the IMF.

"The key item in the coming hours is the IMF reform and if the G7 will acknowledge that emerging countries need to be given a louder voice," said the official.

He added the final G7 statement could call for an increased IMF voting share for those emerging countries that have rapidly growing economies.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:16:10 PM

eFunds Corp. Starget at 'Buy' at Janney Montgomery

EFD $27.61 +1.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:14:54 PM

EBD's Trichet: Central Banks Now Better Able To Keep Price Stability

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:14:13 PM

IMF's Singh: Argentina Should Use All Monetary Policy Tools

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 12:06:42 PM

The DOW is still struggling with that 12592-12596 Fib resistance zone and other than the brief spike down this morning is starting to get a rolling top appearance. That's very preliminary but as it chops its way higher now it's beginning to look a little more bearish. But holding it in the green today will be a goal of many--get that 10 out of the past 11 days in the green and make some good headlines to suck some more people in on Monday before they drop it. I'm still hoping we'll get a further push up so as to get closer to the tops of the ascending wedges for a better setup on the short side for next week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:01:45 PM

I will be out of the office next week. Before I leave I will post an updated TARGET and STOP for all OPEN MM Profiles that I've made.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 12:00:59 PM

Looks a little tired now with oil above 64. Not a bad spot to call it a day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 12:00:06 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in CDE.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:59:47 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 position in Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.21 +2.43% here, stop $4.05, target $4.65.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:58:34 AM

Real Estate is a "hard asset" too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:58:15 AM

iShares Silver (SLV) $140.17 +1.49% ... closed $128.64 on 12/29/06. Up 8.9% YTD

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:56:06 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $67.69 +1.04% ... closed $63.21 on 12/29/06. Up 7.08% YTD.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 11:53:47 AM

Today it was SMH.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:54:12 AM

11:50 AM EDT Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates at this Link ... with Year-to-date changes.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 11:53:07 AM

Once again, the brave got rewarded. We now have multiple confirmation that the trend is still in place, and that is usually an across the board test of the 20 DMA.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:50:25 AM

Brazil Central Bank Workers To Start 72-hour Strike Tuesday

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:49:41 AM

Brazil's Real Hits Highest Level Since March 2001

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:47:14 AM

yg07m $685.10 +0.77% ... 30-minutes ago it was trading ~683.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:45:51 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $67.44 +0.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:45:27 AM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) up 2.4 bp at 4.761% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:45:05 AM

SPY $144.87 +0.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:44:47 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.337 -0.03% (30-minute delayed) ... back to WEEKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:43:28 AM

Ecuador's PPI up 7% In February, up 6% on year

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:42:07 AM

G7: ECB's Weber: Euro-Zone Inflation Pressure May Increase

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 11:33:23 AM

Anyone running XP on a MACBook pro? Let me know how it does, especially with charts. I love that machine, but you can't run Qcharts and Quote tracker on OSX. Why can't PC's build such a beauty of a laptop. You can't even get DVI out on a PC laptop (unless you go 17"). Mac has it on all laptops. Who are these idiots at pc companies? Why don't they get it????? If you already have a graphics card, WHY put a VGA out instead of DVI? It's INSANE.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 11:25:45 AM

JPY June chart: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 11:19:12 AM

The Canadian economy does well with higher oil (big exporter) and the Japanese economy does badly (big importer).

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 11:19:07 AM

Hmm, I guess that means oil will drop too (wink).

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 11:17:34 AM

Some traders would rather play CAD then oil, it tracks it pretty well.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:16:45 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 11:16:21 AM

CAD is not a short of oil keeps going up. If you think oil will fall, then you short CAD. In fact, very often when oil bids, short Yen and buy Canadian.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 11:14:34 AM

Very nice bounce for SMH at 34.10, confluence 10 and 20 DMA. I cost averaged some more and now have a full position of SMH 35 AUG calls going into earnings, which I think (given the NSM heads up) will surprise to the upside. That's my take, of course it's risky, so is shorting all the time (that is nuts, I think).

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 11:14:18 AM

I don't play the currencies much any more (I have enough on my plate) but I like to watch the Canadian dollar since my family has property in Canada and we spend quite a bit of time there (including this summer as I finish up my airplane with my father). Anyway, if you're interested in trading the CD, it looks like at least a good short term top here as it tagged its Fib target at .8845 (came two pips shy of it at .8843). Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 11:11:58 AM

Where is the money going that is leaving real-estate? It's going into the stock market. Where else is there growth? That is why we keep chopping ahead until there is a better place to make 10%. Because there IS earnings growth, even if it is less.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 11:04:33 AM

Many expected the Yen to bid after the G7, but some big players were waiting for 61.8% and whacked it hard. That is supportive of the markets for now. Traders can ignore small moves, but not that.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:04:00 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:02:30 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.54 -0.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:01:17 AM

Yes ... now THAT'S a move.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 11:00:56 AM

USD/JPY ... 60-minute interval chart Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 10:57:15 AM

Sharp reversal for the Yen.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 10:54:52 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Retail stocks fell in morning trading Friday amid fresh investor worries about how consumers are reacting to signs of inflation and a slowing economy.

On the heels of the Labor Department's report that prices on food and energy were climbing came the University of Michigan's reading that consumer sentiment was turning south, an indication buyers might tighten their purse strings.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 10:58:47 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) ... components list with various Net% changes as well as fundamentals for "valuation." Link

SMH Weightings Link

Why has AMKR risen 47.21% over 52-weeks? Why has NVLS risen 30% (Cash Flow/Share)?

Why has AMD fallen 57%? SNDK -29%?

AMAT "fair valued" at 16.1-times earnings, with E/S growth rate of 16.2%?

These are the complexities of fundamental analysis, and "valuation" analysis. They are also BACKWARD/historical looking.

I've always believed the MARKET is forward looking.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 10:49:48 AM

Bonds are selling off which of course is driving yields higher. TNX is inching up towards Fib and trend line resistance near 4.78% and that could offer an opportunity to trade the long side in bonds soon. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 10:44:56 AM

I would not bet on COMP 2468 getting lost again. It was a big deal in 2006 and it is a big deal in 2007. If it holds today, the COMP will push above 2500 very soon.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 10:42:55 AM

Getting a nice lift now so if long near the pullback lows I'd just raise my stop to breakeven now (no sense losing any money). Let's see if the bulls can drive this to new highs now. I'll then get some upside Fib targets for all of them.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/13/2007 10:41:15 AM

NQ holds 50% yesterday and SMH holds 20 DMA. Bears are not getting much traction.

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 10:38:40 AM

What do you make of the margin volume being reported to exceed Feb-March of 2000? CNBC of course compared it to the new high in the DOW so it looks OK. I see it as a divergence off a lower high in the SPX and the COMP and another sign of a pending top with exurberance. The DOW is different now with new companies in it, and the SPX and COMP have more stocks people would buy on margin. Any thoughts, as always recieved with appreciation.

Excellent observation Scott. Not only is the DOW different but in inflated dollars the DOW is a long way from making a new high. The big thing is the amount of bullish exuberance in the market as compared to 2000. The extremely high margin levels reflects that. It also reflects the easy credit environment we've been in, which has helped inflate all assets. A credit tightening will affect trading margin levels as well.

I had mentioned yesterday that the decline from the February high counts well as wave-A down and we're now in wave-B up and I'm waiting for wave-C down to start. B-waves are sucker waves--they get everyone leaning more bullish (in this case since it's a bounce) than the previous high and that's what makes c-waves so strong--they catch everyone leaning the wrong way.

On the weekly chart, the 2000-2002 decline was wave-A and the 2002-2007 rally has been wave-B. Guess what's next? And we're seeing a higher level of exuberance, as measured by things like margin levels, than we saw at the 2000 high. It all fits and it's why the market is in trouble. I completely disagree with McMillan's analysis (which is based more on what has happened than what's coming), but then I know that doesn't surprise you (wink).

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 10:26:16 AM

NQ pulled back slightly deeper than the 1818 area I was thinking but if you tried a long here I'd pull my stop up to 1815, two ticks to a new low. It should bounce now otherwise a drop to its uptrend line near 1804 could be next.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 10:19:08 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $34.10 -1.55% ... notably weak early. Breadth negative at 18:1:1 ... SNDK $43.59 +0.46% bucks the trend.

AMKR -5.02%, NVLS -3.01%, KLAC -2.67%, AMAT -2.17% ...

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 10:18:32 AM

McMillan's Weekly report. - Last month's sharp market selloff is still having some lingering effects on the stock market. Namely, a lot of people turned bearish at that time and still haven't turned back to bullish yet. As long as they remain skeptical, we think this market will continue to rise. It will only be when they convert back to bullishness that the market will be in danger.

$SPX has now carved out a nice pattern of higher highs and higher lows on its chart. The trend line connecting those lows is at about 1430, and that should represent short-term support for the index. Major support is below that, at 1410. We expect the index to challenge its recovery highs at 1460. The $SPX chart is bullish, and a breakout above 1460 would likely bring a flood of money back into the market.

Equity-only put-call ratios have continued to fall since giving buy signals just two weeks ago. There are intermediate-term indicators, and they are strongly bullish currently. Once they develop this kind of momentum, they generally don't turn around quickly, so we look for them to be correctly bullish for some time to come.

Market breadth continues to oscillate with the market. It had reached heavily oversold levels when the market rallied for eight straight days. One day of decline alleviated that, but we are not getting any convincing signal from breadth right now, as it continues to be a confirming indicator at best (rather than a leading one).

Finally, the volatility indices continue to be in downtrends, which is also bullish. If $VIX were to close above 15, that would penetrate the trend line. Moreover, the VIX futures are maintaining a bullish picture as well.

In summary, we have no sell signals from our indicators, and with the $SPX chart and the put-call ratios being quite bullish, we look for higher prices to prevail. This is one of those markets where the $SPX chart is one of the best indicators, so that is the main thing to watch now. As long as its uptrend remains intact, the bears really don't have a case.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 10:16:39 AM

* NYSE decliners outnumber advancers 15 to 13
* Nasdaq decliners outnumber advancers 14 to 11

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 10:14:02 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- As gas prices climbed higher, U.S. consumer sentiment fell in early April, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index released Friday.

The index fell to 85.3 from 88.4 in March. It's the lowest since August.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the index to slide to 87.0

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 10:12:57 AM

My short entry on gold at 688.30 was just triggered as YG tagged 688.50. Stop is at 691.30 for now.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 10:12:15 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Comverge Inc. added shares and priced above its projected range as the maker of technology to improve the efficiency of electric power got off to an auspicious start in its Wall Street trading debut Friday.

Comverge (COMV) priced 5.3 million shares at $18 each, raising $95.4 million with underwriter Citigroup .

The East Hanover, N.J.-based maker of software and related technology is tapping into the so-called "cleantech" sector aimed at reducing the world's carbon footprint.

"There was extremely large institutional demand," said Scott Sweet of IPO Boutique. "It was dominated by dedicated mutual funds that buy only utility-based entities, and funds that have as its charter the purchase of only socially responsible stocks."

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 10:09:17 AM

HSBC Holdings (HBC) $91.04 +1.15% ... gaps above its 200-day SMA. About mid-point of its NEW gap lower. Volume looks anemic early.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 10:05:53 AM

Another market where the next stop is yearly highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 10:02:17 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 10:01:07 AM

Both ER and NQ have broken their respective overnight lows. Link

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 10:00:28 AM

The last leg up in the ascending wedge (assuming this is playing out and not the start of a much more bullish move) will be a 3-wave move. Since the NDX is lagging this morning I'm using it to depict a pullback followed by another rally leg which could push into Monday. The 1830 area is setting up for a good place to look for a high if this follows through. Link

Based on this we should have a good long play setting up once it finishes pulling back. Playing with some Fibs, if we're to get two equal legs up, as depicted on the chart, and it finishes around 1830 then the pullback should stop around 1803-1804 (about NQ 1818) so watch for that possibility as an opportunity to get long for the ride up before reversing short.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 9:57:07 AM

Dow 30 Components (sorted by price) at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 9:52:07 AM

Using the open numbering system you would stay long over the daily open and short below the weekly open. Link

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 9:46:57 AM

I don't think it'll be a straight shot up but you never know. But I'm liking the setup for failure at the top of the ascending wedges. The DOW is out in the lead so I'll watch to see how it sets up. It's possble we'll get a pullback and then rally higher this afternoon so be careful chasing this higher right here. Here's a little expanded view of the wedge pattern that I showed on all the charts last night (see below). Link

The little throw-under at the bottom yesterday will likely be followed by a little throw-over at the top. So if it were to head directly there now that would give us about 12640 for an upside target. I've had 12635 as a Fib level to watch if it ever got above the 12592-12596 Fib resistance zone so there's some correlation there. Just watching for now to see if it sets up nicely.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 9:41:03 AM

General Electric 1Q Earnings up 10% ... Company Press Release Link

GE $35.46 +0.79% ...

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 9:36:50 AM

AD line improving to +450 now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/13/2007 9:35:48 AM

Trade Deficit Falls for 2nd Month ... AP Story Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 9:33:04 AM

Interestingly AD line is a measly +89 I thought it would be higher than that.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 9:30:34 AM

Excellent story on margin Debt. Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 9:18:43 AM

Same story here. Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 9:16:33 AM

Next stop yearly highs. Question though on everyones mind though is when? Today? Maybe. ES's 14 day Average True Range is 11 but in the middle of March it was 24 so it is possible. But if not today then next week a retest of yearly highs is a about as sure as anything you can get in the market. Link

Keene Little : 4/13/2007 9:14:42 AM

Looks like everyone's rallying except the US dollar and that of course didn't help my gold short. I got stopped out for latte money and now I'm waiting to see if it tags the 688.50 Fib target for the 5th wave in the move up from March 29th. I've got my order in to short it at 688.30 with a $3 stop.

The metals continue to trade with equities as they both rallied off the March 29/30 low and now I'm looking for both to ptentially top out today. The spike up in equities on the PPI news could drive them up towards the tops of their ascending wedges which I think will offer a good shorting opportunity there. We'll see how it sets up after the dust settles this morning.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 9:11:16 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures gained Friday, as rising crude-oil prices and the falling dollar boosted demand for the precious metal.

Gold for June delivery rose $6.10 at $685.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday, the contract closed down $2 at $679.70 an ounce.

"Friday the 13th may prove to be an eventful day for the precious metals with gold and silver probing large resistance levels, while factors such as oil and the dollar are supportive of prices gains," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 9:10:35 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- General Electric Co. said Friday first-quarter net income rose 2%, as expected, with growth in its core financial-services business helping overcome weakness from the subprime-mortgage sector and from the company's health-care unit.

GE's net income rose to $4.51 billion, or 44 cents a share, up from $4.44 billion, or 42 cents a share, earned in the first three months of 2006. Earnings from continuing operations increased by 8%, the company said.

Revenue in the latest quarter grew by 6%, to $40.2 billion from $38.03 billion.

The earnings matched the 44-cent average derived in a survey of analysts by Thomson Financial, while sales topped the analysts' average estimate of $39.82 billion.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 9:09:09 AM

Gold up, Oil up and the US$ down, just like it should be.

Isn't it interesting how range bound TBonds have been this week. Even the gyrations in reaction to PPI were not able to break that range. Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 9:05:08 AM

So traders liked the idea that inflation is easing more than the fact that prices are climbing. Makes you wonder though that if the PPI fell if the market would have fallen along with it? So does that mean we are back to the Cinderella economy? If we are you do know that it will not last, nothing ever does, and that eventually the stock market will make a correction of more than 20% and we will transition back into a bear. However, for now enjoy the ride. Link

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 8:55:52 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. trade gap improved for the third straight month in February, indicating that the deficit would be mildly positive for first quarter growth. The trade deficit narrowed 0.7% to $58.4 billion in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The trade gap in January was revised down slightly to $58.9 billion, compared with the initial estimate of $59.1 billion.

Economists had expected the trade gap to widen. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for the deficit to widen to $60.1 billion.

The recent improvement in the trade gap has had a positive effect on growth in gross domestic product. The trade balance contributed 1.6 percentage points to fourth quarter growth and Friday's report indicates that the deficit would add to growth in the first quarter.

Jane Fox : 4/13/2007 8:52:17 AM

Dateline WSJ - Higher food and energy prices pushed U.S. wholesale prices up sharply last month, though outside of those volatile sectors prices remained well contained, thanks largely to steep drops in the prices of computers and light trucks.

A separate report showed the U.S. foreign trade deficit unexpectedly declined in February, as a lower bill for imported crude oil helped offset a decline in capital goods exports.

The producer-prices report should ease concerns that inflation is taking a significant hold in the economy, though the fourth big increase in overall wholesale prices in the past five months will likely keep the Federal Reserve nervous about the potential for those pressures to intensify.

The producer-price index for finished goods rose 1% in March, the Labor Department said Friday, versus 1.3% in February. The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged. The median forecast of 22 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires was for an increase of 0.8% in the headline PPI and 0.2% in the core.

Market Monitor Archives