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Keene Little : 4/15/2007 10:51:55 PM

I also like a silver short here at 14.12 based on two equal legs up from the March low. This should be an A-B-C correction, as labeled on the daily chart, to the decline from the February high. Link

Keene Little : 4/15/2007 10:39:34 PM

Gold spiked up at the open on Sunday night and took me out of my short but based on what I see for the euro (resistance) and potential support for the US dollar, along with resistance for the metals (and gold stocks as I point out below) I decided to jump right back in short. One thing I didn't see until this weekend (and shame on me for not seeing it before) was the gap on Feb 27 that would be closed at 693.7 so I'm short a smaller position at 691.00 with a slightly wider stop at 695.00.
Gold 60-min: Link

The gold and silver sector (XAU) also looks like it could be making its ending move here: Link There are a couple of different ways to look at the sideways consolidation since the high last May but I've been thinking it's a bearish consolidation in a sideways triangle. If true then the current rally leg from the March low should be the last one in the triangle.

Friday's close had it breaking the downtrend line from last September so it's either a breakout in progress or a throw-over. By my bearish wave count on the chart it's the throw-over that will be followed by the start of the next leg down. Obviously it can't rally too much higher otherwise this will have been a bullish consolidation.

So it's a good short here but it needs a relatively close stop--any higher than the September high says it's a bullish breakout. We should see confirmation between the metals and this index whichever way it goes (hopefully down for my short play).

Keene Little : 4/15/2007 10:26:12 PM

GOOG and CME haven't been too active lately and therefore continue to leave the door open to a move in either direction and possibly a strong move out of the blue. Both are trading between key levels on their charts and therefore also leave open the possibility that they'll continue to chop around.
CME 60-min: Link
GOOG 60-min: Link

Keene Little : 4/15/2007 10:20:47 PM

Within the potential ascending wedges that I've been showing for the 4 indices we're following, I've been expecting a 3-wave move up from Thursday's low to complete the pattern. Looking at that move up I'm looking at Fib projections for where the 2nd leg up is 62% of the 1st leg and then where equality is. Right now the 62% projection ties in nicely with little over-throws of the tops of the wedges (except for NDX which is lagging the others) so that's the first important level to watch on Monday.

As shown on the charts, these levels are DOW 12632, SPX 1454, NDX 1818 (the top of the wedge is closer to equality in the two legs at 1828) and RUT 819.72. Note that Friday's closing prices, except for NDX were very close to these levels and it suggests a minor push higher first thing Monday morning could be followed by selling so be careful of that possibility.

60-min roadmaps from Friday's close:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

After breaking its uptrend line from March 14th the RUT has rallied back up to it, which crosses the 819.72 Fib projection first thing Monday so that may be a particularly difficult level to push through. But if it does then the gap close at 823.79 and then equality between the two legs up from last Thursday at 824.63 would be the next upside targets.

Keene Little : 4/15/2007 10:15:56 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/15/2007 9:59:59 PM

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