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Keene Little : 4/17/2007 12:40:55 AM

GOOG stopped at its downtrend line from January but the internal Fib projections point a little higher to an area just shy of 480 as potential resistance to the end of the its bounce. The bearish wave count calls for a strong decline from there. The bullish wave count, with a move above 484, would say the 500 area would be next. Link

Keene Little : 4/17/2007 12:13:59 AM

CME continues to be a greater challenge to figure out from an EW perspective than the broader market, and that's saying a lot. I've relabeled the wave count for the move down, and the bounce, since the January high. It actually puts it more in synch with the broader market if we're seeing the near completion of an A-B-C bounce from the March lows. Link

The bearish count on CME says we should only have a minor push higher before turning back down for new lows. The bullish count says it had a breakout today above its downtrend line from January and now it will proceed to new highs. Unfortunately it will take a rally above 583 to prove the bullish case. If it breaks back below 544 at any time then the bearish wave count takes preference.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 11:44:38 PM

The stock market looks like it needs to press a little higher in order to complete a 5-wave move up from April 12th. Whether that finishes the bounce from the March low or only provides a relatively small pullback is too hard to say right now. We'll have to wait for the pullback. But since all 5-wave moves get corrected we'll watch for that setup. In the meantime, long is the place to be.

The DOW 60-min chart shows a Fib target at 12708 that has already been achieved and therefore it looks like the next one at 12779 is in play. For the 5-wave move up from April 12th, the 5th wave has Fib projections at 12796 (which is also the February high) and then 12814 which is two equal legs up from the March 14th low. So the 12800 area could be a tough nut to crack. The bullish wave count then calls for a corrective pullback and that's when we'll get some clues as to what follows. Link

SPX has the same setup except I'm using the March 5th low to make the projections for the larger move and then the 2nd A-B-C projection is from the March 30th low. Its Fib projections line up just under 1474. The 5th wave of the move up from April 12th has a Fib target at 1474.77 based on 62% of 1st wave so there's alignment at that 1474 area. If the bulls can push it higher then 1480 and then 1484 are the next Fibs. Once the 5-wave move up from April 12th is complete we'll then get a pullback or the start of something more bearish, and we won't know which until the pullback gets started. Link

NDX has Fib projections of 1848 and 1854, as shown by the two 100% projections on the chart (for the A-B-C wave counts). For the 5-wave move up from April 12th, the 5th wave = 62% of the 1st wave at 1844 and equality at 1854. So it's not a tight spread but hopefully it will become clearer once (if) the next leg up gets going. Link

The RUT has price projections to 835, 840 and then 842. Like the others, once a 5-wave move is complete from the low on April 12th, if the the pullback is a very choppy sideways/down correction then we'll know to look higher. If it starts to drop sharply and below 830 then it will start to look more bearish. At any time now a drop back below 812 would confirm the end of the bounce. Link

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 10:48:28 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/16/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 7:58:16 PM

VIX/VXN, different picture at close: Link

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 5:39:10 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 5:35:44 PM

You could have argued with the bulls below the 10, 20 or 50 dma. But when all three were cleared, you were asking for trouble and fighting the universe.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 5:16:18 PM

Markets go up over time and take all the money from bears over time.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 5:15:00 PM

I hope this entire month was a lesson for most traders. Waiting for a top has cost you 100 ES points profit. You are better off 80% of the time buying dips as long as the overall bull is still in place (SPX 10 month MA is the key, it held). Forget bias, forget logic. This is about making money, not being right. Now of course, it's much harder to hit the buy button, because you are with the late-comers. In the future, as long as the uptrend is still in place, remember to be a buyer of pullbacks. Being a momentum buyer (what we have now) is far more dangerous than sticking your toe on a buy when everyone is selling a bull that is still in place.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 5:05:50 PM

The DOW's 60-min chart shows the next Fib projection at 12779 based on two equal legs up from the March 30 low. As mentioned earlier, a 5th wave in the 2nd leg up from April 12th Fibs out at 12796 which would be a perfect retest of the February high. Whether that leads to a pullback (or something more bearish) or the bulls can keep things going, that will become clearer once it gets there (assuming it will). Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 4:41:32 PM

Major firms use futures to hedge overnight, that does not mean they are selling stocks. In fact, there is no way the futures market can accommodate the billions they have invested in equities. Be mindful of this.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 4:28:36 PM

The same a-b-c-x-a-b-c wave count works on all the indices and for the NDX I get some Fib projections not lining up quite as well as on SPX. The first upside Fib target I have is 1844 then 1848 and then 1854. The top of a parallel up-channel for recent price action is closer to 1844 so I'll be watching for evidence in its last rally leg where it might top out, especially if up near any of these Fib projections. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 4:15:43 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - A gunman rampaged across the campus of Virginia Tech University on Monday, killing at least 31 people and wounding nearly two dozen more in the worst mass shooting in U.S. history, officials said.

The shooting, which took place Monday morning in two buildings on the Blacksburg, Virginia campus, threw the university into turmoil and drew expressions of shock, outrage and sympathy from university and U.S. government officials.

The shooting revived memories of other school massacres, including the killings at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colo., in which 13 were killed by two students, who then committed suicide.

Leaders in both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives held moments of silence in response to the shootings, bringing a temporary halt to the government's business. President George W. Bush expressed his dismay and said he would address the nation at 4:15 PM Eastern time.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 4:12:53 PM

In a similar a-b-c-x-a-b-c wave count for the move up from the March 5th low, SPX has two Fib projections pointing to nearly the exact same level just under 1474. And in the 5-wave move up from April 12th (assuming we're going to get another leg up), the 5th wave = 62% of the 1st wave at 1474.77) so there are 3 projections pointing to the same 1474 area. It shouldn't waste any time getting up there since the 4th wave correction today should be finished. Then assuming it rallies up to 1474 I'll be watching for potential topping, even if only for a pullback. Link

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 3:49:58 PM

Using a 30-min chart for the DOW, I'm showing what could be the finishing touches to a b-wave rally from the March low. This would be the bearish interpretation of what is happening here (backed up by a continued lack of breadth and volume during the March rally). Link

In b-wave corrections they can be very difficult to figure out real time so the best I can do is make projections using the internal wave structure and Fib relationships. Right now, the way the rally has progressed from the low on April 12th, it looks like we need another small push higher to complete a 5-wave move up from that low. Based on the size of the 3rd wave I'm guessing the 5th wave will be 62% of the 1st wave and that's at 12796. That's exactly where the February high is located as well.

In the slightly larger pattern of the move up from March 30th, which could be an a-b-c count (finishing up a larger a-b-c-x-a-b-c), equality between the two legs up would be at 12779. So the 12779-12796 is the area I'm looking for the DOW to head up to and then we'll see if there's evidence that it will top out there.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 3:28:51 PM

Approximate futures premium over cash (June futures):

YM -- +58
ES -- +8.25
NQ -- +14.50
ER -- +5.3

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 3:26:43 PM

NDX is also showing some short term bearish divergences as it pushes back up towards today's high. If it can continue to consolidate above 1828 I see the probability that it will press up to a Fib projection in the 1844-1848 area. It takes a break below 1802 to say the bulls have fumbled the ball. Link

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 3:16:56 PM

After a minor pullback this afternoon the RUT is back up banging its head on two resistance levels--its previous high on February 22nd (830) and its broken uptrend line from August. Shorter term bearish divergences suggest it's ready for a pullback and then we'll see what form it takes and what clues it provides for the next move. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 2:53:13 PM

VIX took a hugh jump upwards (bearish) but now the AD volume is as well so we are back to sideways and no direction.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 2:39:00 PM

As if to say "not so fast bears", along comes a buy program that spikes everyone up at the same time. Could be a head fake stop run but hard to say here. We're into opex shenanigans now.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 2:23:28 PM

So far the pullback from today's high is only a corrective 3-wave pullback so a press back above the last high just past 1:00 would leave it that way and likely see prices continue to new highs. Keep an eye on NDX--if it holds support near 1828 that will be bullish.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 2:13:44 PM

The other reason I'm waiting to see how today finishes is because of opex week. As we've seen in the past, with the head fake days on Thursday and Friday before opex, sometimes we've seen the head fake continue into Monday. If today's rally is given up into the close then that could be the kickoff to a down week. That's obviously just speculation at the moment--we'll wait for the closing prices to see what we've got.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 1:59:27 PM

Just to let you know...Goldman has started selling at ES 1475 after buying all morning per pit contacts......this will of course be important going into the close. I will let you know if I hear anything else.

Thanks C. Keep us advised. As I've been saying, it'll be today's close that will be very important.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 1:48:58 PM

It looks like the bulls are still alive in the metals too--new highs for gold after this morning's quick pullback. The US dollar is still probing for a low which continues to make picking a top in the metals a dicey game. If stopped out at 695 I'll have to wait for evidence of topping.

I believe we're close to a reversal in both the dollar and the metals so I'm not anxious to reverse my direction to long in the metals but I'm not going to fight a continuing rally either. Maybe a double top in gold at 698.60? Just before that is the intersection of a couple of parallel up-channels near a Fib projection for the current leg at 696.57. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 1:48:49 PM

The bulls would certainly like to see the VIX hovering at daily lows and not at daily highs so I am not expecting any kind of big move at the end of the day. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 1:38:26 PM

I certainly wouldn't be short with these two looking like this. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 1:34:59 PM

This is another chart that should give Goldbugs a little heartache. This is the Euro/US currency pair and it looks like it is topping which means the US$ will rally which means Gold will fall. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 1:32:35 PM

Tough call. CPI tomorrow and major earnings.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 1:32:10 PM

If JPY drops below support, equities will climb higher before the close. Otherwise=, we could have seen the highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 1:29:17 PM

The Yen finds support at Feb gap close. That's why equities stalled. Watch JPY June 0.008416 support.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 1:22:09 PM

The NDX daily chart shows price poking its head up above the broken trend line along the lows since November, currently just below 1828. By getting above that level, if it can hold, the bullish wave count takes preference. Any drop back below 1828 now, especially if it happened by today's close, would look bearish (over-throw followed by failure to hold). Link

As labeled in dark red, the bearish wave count still has the possibility for the bounce off the March low to be a 2nd wave correction which calls for a 3rd wave down next. But whether it's a 3rd wave or c-wave down it won't much matter yet--either would be a strong move. The new bearish key level is the last low near 1788 (also near its 50-dma now).

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 1:10:40 PM

Here's the SPX daily chart (for some reason correcting a chart in a previous post never works anymore--very frustrating system). Link

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 1:09:01 PM

The DOW's daily chart looks like the one for SPX. The possibility for the bullish wave count was triggered with a move above 12632 and if it follows through to the upside then the Fib projection for the move is up near 13400. But also like the SPX, the bearish possibility still exists for the rally off the March low to be wave-B in the A-B-C wave count (dark red). The bearish wave count now requires the DOW to break below 12428 and until that happens then the bulls are in control. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 1:05:36 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Manufacturing activity in the New York area grew slowly in April, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Monday.

The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 3.8 in April from 1.9 in March. The index had plunged over 20 points in March to its lowest level in two years.

The index remains just barely over zero, the level which indicates expansion.

The gain in April was below expectations of a rebound to 7.6

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 1:04:10 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Tightening lending standards in the subprime mortgage market have shaken the confidence of U.S. home builders, according to a survey released Monday by the National Association of Home Builders.

The Wells Fargo/NAHB housing market index fell from 36 in March to 33 in April, the lowest level since December. Builders were significantly more pessimistic about future sales than they were in March.

The index shows that about one-third of U.S. builders are optimistic about the housing market.

The index sank to a 15-year low of 30 in September. A year ago, the index was at 51. It peaked at 72 in June 2005.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected to index to fall to 35 in April.

The highly publicized problems in the subprime mortgage sector "continued to take a toll on builder confidence," the NAHB said. The tighter lending standards compelled the builders to lower their forecasts for sales and building for this year and next.

"While we still expect to see some improvements in housing market activity beginning late this year, the downside risks and uncertainties surrounding that forecast are considerable," said David Seiders, chief economist for the builders' group, in a statement.

Market conditions deteriorated in all four regions of the country. In the South, the largest region for building, the market index fell from 40 to 37, the lowest since the regional data was first broken out separately in 2004.

In the West, the second biggest region, the index dropped to 35 from 37. In the Midwest, the index tumbled to 22 from 27, the lowest since December. In the Northeast, the smallest market, the index slipped to 38 from 39. The index is derived from surveying builders about their attitudes toward current single-family sales, future single-family sales, and the traffic of prospective buyers through their developments. Sentiment fell for all three questions. The current sales index dropped from 36 to 33, future sales fell from 50 to 44, and buyers' traffic fell from 28 to 27

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 1:02:37 PM

I forgot to move the bearish key level on the daily chart posted below so I corrected that in the chart.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 1:01:29 PM

By rallying above the key bullish level of SPX 1454-1455 that I've had on the charts, it's now for the bulls to lose. As long as they can hold it above this level, certainly above 1450, they should be able to keep the rally going. This updated daily chart shows the significant rally potential ahead (whether it follows the steep up-channel as drawn or instead shallows out a bit). On the flip side, a drop back below 1450 would be bearish and especially so if it drops below the last low near 1434, the new bearish key level. Link

For those who scoff at the possibility to see the SPX rally above the 2000 high, which would potentially be a 15% rally off the March low, I had pointed out a couple of weeks ago that if we follow the pattern in 1987 then that's quite possible. Back then, after a brief correction around March/April the market shot higher by about 20%, taking it into August. After an initial drop in September and correction into early October we all know what happened next in October 1987. Will history repeat? Only time will tell.

When I say it's the bulls' market to lose now, what they clearly don't want to see today is a complete retracement of today's rally, leaving something like a bearish shooting star in its wake, at resistance. Today's close will be very important. The bearish wave count, calling the rally off the March low a b-wave in a larger A-B-C pullback, as labeled in dark red, is still very much alive. The new high does not negate this possibility, even if it pushes higher (such as the 1484 Fib projection for two equal legs up from March 14th).

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 12:39:06 PM

Dateline WSJ - BLACKSBURG, Va. -- Gunfire erupted in a dorm and classroom at Virginia Tech Monday, killing at least 20 people and leaving dozens injured, authorities said.

The university told students to stay inside and away from windows as police swept the campus and worked to establish whether the gunman acted alone.

A hospital spokeswoman said 21 students were treated for gunshot wounds and other injuries.

On the Web site, Tech reported the shootings at opposite sides of the 2,600-acre campus at West Ambler Johnston, a co-ed residence hall that houses 895 people, and said there were "multiple victims" at Norris Hall, an engineering building.

All entrances to the campus were closed and classes canceled through Tuesday.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 12:37:51 PM

Dateline WSJ - Virginia Tech reports a gunman killed at least 21 students and injured 21 before the shooter was killed. Details to follow shortly.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 12:36:49 PM

VIX is range bound but the AD volume is speaking ...well volumes!!!!! Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 12:31:51 PM

The battle is now at NQ weekly R1 (1847). All eyes on the Yen to see if it finds support at Feb gap close. That's what's going on. The big drop in Yen made this rally possible, now bulls can't see a JPY bounce.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 12:24:48 PM

PARIS (Reuters) - French secret services produced nine reports between September 2000 and August 2001 looking at the al Qaeda threat to the United States, and knew it planned to hijack an aircraft, the French daily Le Monde said on Monday. The newspaper said it had obtained 328 pages of classified documents that showed foreign agents had infiltrated Osama bin Laden's network and were carefully tracking its moves. One document prepared in January 2001 was entitled "Plan to hijack an aircraft by Islamic radicals", and said the operation had been discussed in Kabul at the start of 2000 by al Qaeda, Taliban and Chechen militants. The hijack was meant to happen between March and September 2000 but the planners put it back "because of differences of opinion, particularly over the date, objective and participants," Le Monde said, citing the report...
Le Monde said the French report of January 2001 had been handed over to a CIA operative in Paris, but that no mention of it had ever been made in the official U.S. September 11 Commission, which produced its findings in July 2004. The newspaper quoted a former senior official at France's DGSE secret service agency as saying that, although France thought a hijack was being planned, the DGSE did not know that the plot involved flying aircraft into buildings. Link

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 12:17:34 PM

CME has a bullish breakout from its triangle pattern that I've been showing on its daily chart. It's still possible that the rally from mid March is forming a small (bearish) ascending wedge but so far I don't see any supporting evidence of that. Any retest of the 560 area that holds will be bullish for a continuation higher now. A break of 575 is needed to confirm. Link

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 12:06:32 PM

GOOG is facing resistance at its downtrend line from January, currently near 476. A bullish breakout here would add to the bullishness we're seeing in the market. But this would be a natural place to see at least a pullback. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 12:06:17 PM

New York (MarketWatch's Peter Brimelow) -- Gold closed Friday up $10.20 in New York, close to the year's high. But that followed a week in which the failure of the metal to respond to usually helpful influences - a reeling dollar, surging metal prices, various economic and political factors - had caused widespread gold bug grief and rage. Over the weekend, that's been intensified by rumors of renewed official-sector gold selling.

Long-time believers in gold price manipulation, like Bill Murphy of www.LeMetropolecafe.com, have of course been apoplectic.

But more conventional commentators were also upset. The Gartman Letter, which is carrying a fairly large gold position, writing extremely early on Friday, expressed itself "somewhat dismayed by gold's rather tepid action" and commiserated with clients who sold.

Quite unusually for recent times, gold's powerful action on Friday was exceeded by even more violent increases in the gold shares. The American Stock Exchange Gold Bugs Index (HUI) jumped 2.41% to Comex gold's 1.5%.

If sustained, this could have an important impact on sentiment. The idea that gold shares lead gold is deeply ingrained, and an end to their recently sluggish performance would be a great recruiter for the bulls.

Technically, both metal and equities made or are about to make very important breakouts, depending on pencil thickness and magnifying-glass power. This is true even of The Privateer's mighty U.S. dollar 5x3 point and figure chart, which is designed only to register really important turns. Privateer amiably makes this available to nonsubscribers

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 12:03:05 PM

ES 100% retrace 2007.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 11:55:28 AM

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- This morning, soon after the stock market opened for trading, the stock market as a whole rose to a new all-time high.

This news might not itself strike you as all that noteworthy. Over the last 12 months, after all, the market has hit many new all-time highs.

But what makes Monday morning's achievement so special: It means that the stock market's correction of late February into early March has now been completely overcome. This is the correction, you might recall, that began in earnest with a mini-crash on Feb. 27, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 416 points in a single session.

The stock market average that reflects the combined value of all publicly traded stocks is the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index. Its previous all-time high was set Feb. 22, at 14,828.76. This benchmark rose smartly above that level Monday, climbing above the 14,850 level in early trading.

To be sure, not all market averages are at new all-time highs. The Dow industrials, for example, remains slightly below its high.

But the message of the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index is that, for every share of stock that's below its all-time high, there is more than one other that is above.

For the record, Monday's new high means that it took the stock market just 29 trading sessions to overcome the losses generated by the correction of about six weeks ago.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 11:53:11 AM

Wilshire 5000 to all time new highs. WOW! Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 11:48:29 AM

When long term bears start thinking long, I will get defensive and maybe short (bears always buy tops). For now, NQ could close its Feb gap. But the big bullish story is OEX and if it closes above 670...

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 11:42:24 AM

If the banks can get above resistance (BIX above 393 and hold above) then it'll give the green light for the bulls. Until that happens, and especially with the continued lighter volume in this rally, it requires some caution here.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 11:39:34 AM

Even if volume is on the light side it could be because the bears have pushed aside and they're not willing to fight the trend right now. Price is of course the final arbiter and today is clearly bullish. This has the makings of a very clear bullish breakout if it can hold. It's still in double-top territory and could consolidate before pressing higher (or fail to hold the highs and tank into the close). So it's a bit early to make an outright bullish call here, but so far it's very constructive.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 11:33:05 AM

While I am getting crushed on my bear call spreads for April, I take note that the volume is barely above Friday. I have also noted the big guys lightened up on all there call positions over the last two days. There is a tremendous activity in those same options today. I will be interested to see if they are opening again or closing. It may be wishful thinking but with this less than aggressive volume it could be reversed hard by a determined seller(s). I can only hope.

My guess Dave is that you're not the only one hoping to see a reversal today. So far the bulls are doing a great job at not only breaking out this morning but now holding those gains. The consolidations continue to look bullish.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 11:21:36 AM

I agree on the gold short today Keene, I just may get out of my GLD long here as well.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 11:17:36 AM

Could be right Jane on your gold assessment. Of course if gold finishes down today it will be a bearish engulfing candlestick at resistance (prior high). Think I'll take my chances on the short side here.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 11:15:48 AM

Hovering at daily highs usually means higher highs so don't be short here folks. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 11:13:17 AM

VIX continues to make new daily highs but so does the AD volume and the result is price just moves sideways. Today I suspect the AD volume will win.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 11:11:17 AM

Keene I do think you have found a top in Gold, for a while at least (wink). If you take a look at the MACD on the chart I posted at 11:01 you will see the MACD is also telling you a retracement is almost baked in the cake.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 11:04:46 AM

Fingers crossed I may have finally found the top in the metals. I've lowered my stops on both the gold and silver short to just above today's highs. Silver is now breaking its uptrend line from April 2nd although it could be just a head fake break at this point. Link

I've been attempting to find the top to the metals for a position trade as I think it will be good for a multi-week trade, and it's the reason I've tried as many times as I have. But tight stops are still needed until evidence of a high. I'd like to see the gold/silver index close in the red today to help confirm (up marginally today).

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 11:01:02 AM

Gold will have a hard time breaking this resistance and I truly think it will be taking a needed breather here. Hopefully the jtHMA daily will get back to red and then when it turns back green we have a "buy the dip" signal. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 11:00:38 AM

That said, NOW you can start thinking possible short term top as NDX and YM close their gaps. But if OEX closes above 670, this bull has much further to go. Shorts are only day trades and as Jane said, not much fun today unless you are very skilled.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/16/2007 10:57:25 AM

The bulls are getting help from the disbelieving bears. Amazing how much energy is expended trying to find a top when in fact buying the bottom is 90% of the time the better trade and has been since March lows.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 10:53:50 AM

The banks got a very big bounce today which has taken the BIX right up to its 200-dma and downtrend line from the February high. The bulls will need the banks to break this resistance level (392.70). The high so far is 392.86. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 10:52:34 AM

This daily chart of Oil certainly supports the jtHMA spreadsheet which is telling you to step aside this market until things clear up a tad. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 10:50:15 AM

I put a lot of faith into the VIX and its direction but today even though it is climbing and making new daily highs I will not try a short because of the strength of the AD volume and an AD line at +1550. It is just not worth a short. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 10:43:38 AM

You now have the correct image for my last post.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 10:43:10 AM

Russell 2000 - I was looking for the daily to go red then back green but that did not happen so you could have used the 60/120 charts to enter a $RUT position last week.

DOW - weekly has now turned green but if you were using only the monthly and weekly you would not enter until Friday to ensure the weekly stayed green.

SPX - Same story as the Russell

COMPX - Same story as the DOW

MID - This market's weekly never did go red it would have been harder to get a good long entry.

Gold - You could have used the 60/120 charts last week to get long gold.

Oil - Monthly is still red so as far as the jtHMA is concerned you would not be long this commodity. I would not be short because of the global pressures from politics and weather but not the time for a long either.

Silver - this market is interesting in that it was all green last week and now the weekly and the daily have both gone red yet the 60/120 charts are turning back green. It is however overall bullish because the monthly is green.

Transports - remain bullish.

Wilshire 5000 - Same story as the SPX

US $ - 60/120 charts have peeked green so you would be watching the daily to turn green then back red for a "sell the rally" type of trade. That is if you are so inclined to trade currencies. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 10:39:49 AM

TICKS +1000. Don't try shorting this market today.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 10:30:15 AM

NDX is pulling back a little sharper than the others right now but still well within a normal pullback against this morning's sharp rise out of the gate. If it consolidates underneath resistance in the 1828-1831 area then it will look bullish. If this morning's spike up had as much to do with bears capitulating as anything else then the rally could be in trouble. That will need some extra time and price action to decipher now.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 10:07:58 AM

With the move above 820 the RUT is bullish. The next level of resistance could be its broken uptrend line from August, currently near 829 and only about 2.50 points higher. That could still be the end of its upward correction but at this point it's probably safer to wait for some evidence of topping before getting aggressively short again. Here's the daily chart showing the broken August uptrend line: Link and a little closer view at the updated 60-min: Link

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 9:55:09 AM

NDX is up against the top of its wedge pattern, Fib projection at 1828 and only a point away from gap closure. There could be a number of sellers who are going to hit it here so this is an important area for the techs. Link

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 9:50:46 AM

NDX got within a point of closing its Feb 27 gap at 1830.92. I'd be very surprised if it can't finish the job here.

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 9:48:28 AM

It looks like the DOW should be able to reach its next Fib projection at 12694 which is also near a parallel line to the uptrend line from March 14th (that has acted as resistance before). But right now the market is clearly on a bullish path so shorting any highs today is an attempt to catch rising knives. But keep an eye on the 12700 area if you're long and want to protect profits. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 9:40:00 AM

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) today announced that trading of its mini-sized Dow ($5) futures contract set a record on Wednesday, as volume climbed to 329,848 contracts.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 9:38:10 AM

My goodness AD line is +1663.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 9:37:55 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose Monday, as weakness in the dollar boosted demand for the precious metal.

Gold for June delivery gained $2.40 at $692.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "Given the bearish dollar sentiment and the breach of chart resistance last week, gold is looking set for another week of solid gains," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

On Friday, gold futures closed up $10.20 at $689.90 an ounce, gaining 1.5% last week. The British pound rose to a 15-year high against the dollar after U.K. data showed producer prices rising faster than expected, increasing the chances of a further interest rate hike in May. The dollar showed a limited reaction to U.S. retail sales and empire state manufacturing data.

"Gold rose on the back of a weaker dollar, which many feel will increase demand as an alternative investment," said analysts at Action Economics. "Robust oil prices are also adding support to gold, which is used as a hedge against oil-led inflation."

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 9:37:26 AM

NDX is moving up to its 1828 Fib target and SPX is less than a point from its February high. Important tests here.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 9:28:22 AM

This is the least bullish chart of all. Notice how the last week's high has not yet been broken, however, MACD is cooperating and telling me it will try a game of catchup as well. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 9:25:30 AM

Same bullish story for the Russell 2000. Yearly highs are at 838 so it will not probably make it there today but it will soon. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 9:22:33 AM

Same story here but YM has a lot more ground to cover before it gets to retest yearly highs. Notice how the MACD is already higher than it was at its February's highs? If you are not long the equity markets this may be your best bet now because it has the furthest to go and will play a game of catchup. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 9:19:06 AM

I was quite convinced that ES would retest yearly highs but the move we have had the last three days has even surprised me. This about a bullish as you can get. Hopefully some of you got long the SPX. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 9:13:50 AM

Before we get to the daily charts of the equity marekts let's take a look at the commodities and Bonds. The US$ is hovering around its PDL and threatening to go lower and since Gold is so tied indirectly to the $ it is hovering around its PDH and threatening to go higher.

Oil stayed with its PDR over the weekend but remains in a healthy 63 - 65/bl.

Bonds are still rangebound. Link

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 9:09:48 AM

Last week's bullishness continued during the weekend's overnight session. I think a more important view is the daily so I will take each one of these markets and look at the daily charts to show you just how bullish things are now. Link

Keene Little : 4/16/2007 9:07:35 AM

We've got a bullish start to the day ahead of us as equity futures steadily climbed all night and right into the pre-open here. Needless to say the bulls will make a big statement today if they can keep it going. Just as obviously a gap n crap with a down finish would be very bearish considering the potential ascending wedge patterns they're in. Could be an important day today.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 9:06:16 AM

Dateline WSJ - Manufacturing activity in the New York Federal Reserve district stabilized in April with the overall index edging up to a reading of 3.80 from an unrevised 1.85 in March.

The median expectation of 11 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was for a reading of 10.00.

The Bank said Monday in its Empire State Manufacturing Survey that "conditions for New York manufacturers were essentially flat again in April."

The April reading for the new orders index edged up to a reading of 3.94 compared to 3.14 in March, while the shipments index decreased to 8.66 from 18.54. The unfilled orders index stayed in negative territory with a reading of -8.33 compared to a negative reading of -8.54 in March.

The prices paid index increased to a reading of 40.48 compared to 30.23 in March, but the prices received index slipped to a reading of 7.14 from 10.47 in March, showing that manufacturers are still facing higher costs which they are having trouble fully passing on in the form of higher prices. The number of employees slipped, while the average employee workweek also declined.

Jane Fox : 4/16/2007 9:03:45 AM

Dateline WSJ - U.S. retail sales climbed in March above expectations and demand for the prior month was revised much higher, signaling consumer spending and the economy aren't as weak as believed.

A separate report showed manufacturing activity in the New York region ticked higher in April.

Retail sales increased 0.7% last month, after rising 0.5% in February, the Commerce Department said Monday. Originally, February sales were seen up 0.1%.

The 0.7% increase in overall retail sales during March was a surprise on Wall Street. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of 15 economists had forecast a 0.5% increase. The climb in March was the largest since 1.1% in December 2006.

The retail sales report illustrates where Americans are spending their money. Consumer spending makes up about 70% of gross domestic product, which is the scoreboard for the economy.

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