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Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 11:08:56 PM

CME's Nov'07 Housing Futures Table with date/price benchmarks that I keep track of at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 11:03:33 PM

CME's Aug'07 Housing Futures Table with date/price benchmarks that I keep track of at this Link

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 10:53:01 PM

End-of-day re-posts:

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

NQ is holding onto the bulk of its after-hours bounce on the TXN earnings. The big question now is whether that after-hours jubilation will hold over into the cash open. We've seen many times with these big cap tech stocks that it doesn't happen. TXN has lower profits on lower sales but because they guided higher everyone got excited. As I said, we'll see how it carries over into Tuesday's trading.

In the meantime, since not a whole lot happened on Monday, the 60-min roadmaps haven't changed a whole lot either. We're either seeing a corrective pullback that will lead to new highs (might only be minor new highs as shown on the different charts), a continuation of the sideways/down consolidation (shown as per the green bullish wave count) or the next leg down has already started (dark red bearish count). We'll let price lead the way as we no key levels triggered yet.
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

CME dropped back below its downtrend line from January and looks like it's headed for its uptrend line from the end of February. A break below 527 and 520 would be a heads up that the bearish wave count is playing out with confirmation by a break below 510. In the meantime the leg down here could be finishing up the sideways consolidation that will lead to another rally leg to a new high. Link

GOOG hasn't done a whole lot after it gapped up on its earnings report. In fact it's given up the bulk of those gains. With the choppy overlapping price pattern this could go either way and there's not a high-confidence way to determine which way next. Link

If the market is unable to tack on additional gains after TXN's earnings report then we'll know everything has been pretty much baked into the cake. For lots of reasons tomorrow will be an important day in determining what's next for this market.

OI Technical Staff : 4/23/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 7:34:41 PM

CME dropped back below its downtrend line from January and looks like it's headed for its uptrend line from the end of February. A break below 527 and 520 would be a heads up that the bearish wave count is playing out with confirmation by a break below 510. In the meantime the leg down here could be finishing up the sideways consolidation that will lead to another rally leg to a new high. Link

GOOG hasn't done a whole lot after it gapped up big time on its earnings report. In fact it's given up the bulk of those gains. With the choppy overlapping price pattern this could go either way and there's not a high-confidence way to determine which way next. Link

If the market is unable to tack on additional gains after TXN's earnings report then we'll know everything has been pretty much baked into the cake. For lots of reasons tomorrow will be an important day in determining what's next for this market.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 7:16:11 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 7:14:19 PM

NQ is holding onto the bulk of its after-hours bounce on the TXN earnings. The big question now is whether that after-hours jubilation will hold over into the cash open. We've seen many times with these big cap tech stocks that it doesn't happen. TXN has lower profits on lower sales but because they guided higher everyone got excited. As I said, we'll see how it carries over into Tuesday's trading.

In the meantime, since not a whole lot happened on Monday, the 60-min roadmaps haven't changed a whole lot either. We're either seeing a corrective pullback that will lead to new highs (might only be minor new highs as shown on the different charts), a continuation of the sideways/down consolidation (shown as per the green bullish wave count) or the next leg down has already started (dark red bearish count). We'll let price lead the way as we no key levels triggered yet.
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 5:55:53 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 5:26:19 PM

June Unleaded (NYMEX:rb07m) settled up $0.0518, or +2.46% at $2.1617.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 5:25:09 PM

June Crude Oil (NYMEX:cl07m) settled up $1.78, or +2.78% at $65.89.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 5:24:09 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/23/2007 5:03:38 PM

We are still very extended, but you can't argue with price and right now it just wants to go up. Too many hedgies chasing the same names.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/23/2007 5:01:08 PM

NQ should be headed for 1878 resistance. Support is 1859.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 4:48:11 PM

iRobot Corp (IRBT) $15.00 +2.04% ... jumps to $16.50 extended. Teams with Boeing (BA) to Deliver New Military Reconnaissance Robot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 4:45:38 PM

Express Scripts (ESRX) $88.90 +0.10% ... jumps to $92.85 extended on headline numbers.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/23/2007 4:45:02 PM

AMGN up, ALTR up, TXN up...COMP 2600: the only question is when not if.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/23/2007 4:43:30 PM

Love those semis. Shorts are getting whacked betting on a repeat of last year. I think the calendar is going to be a wee bit different this time around if you ask me.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 4:39:05 PM

Texas Instruments (TXN) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.31 on Revenue of $3.15B

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 4:37:05 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $35.97 -0.71% ... $36.85 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 4:36:19 PM

Texas Instruments (TXN) $32.41 -0.27% ... surges to $35.20 extended on headline numbers. SMH heavyweight here.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 4:34:48 PM

Big pop higher in TXN so they've said something good. Next test will be what guidance they offer.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 4:33:50 PM

Amgen (AMGN) $62.19 +0.35% ... creeps higher to $62.75 in extended on headline numbers.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was EPS of $1.08 on Revenue of $3.73B

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 4:26:21 PM

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) $132.35 -1.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 4:25:50 PM

Nymex Holdings (NMX) $125.88 -2.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 4:24:57 PM

Nymex To Launch Three New Oil-Product Contracts May 13

DJ- Nymex Holdings Inc. (NMX), owner of the New York Mercantile Exchange, said Monday that it will launch three new oil-product contracts May 13 for trade date May 14.

The new contracts are Gulf Coast gasoline, Gulf Coast ultra low sulfur diesel and New York Harbor ultra low diesel futures, Nymex said in a statement.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 4:12:44 PM

Economic Reports out tomorrow include:

10:00a.m. March Existing Home Sales. Expected: -2.9%. Previous: +3.9%.

10:00a.m. April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Previous: -10.

10:00a.m. April Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Expected: 105.0. Previous: 107.2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 4:02:34 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $51.22 +2.33% ... 60-minute interval chart with April's MONTHLY Pivot retracement and this week's WEEKLY Pivot retracement Link

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 4:00:32 PM

The short term pattern is a little ugly but my best guess as we head into the close is that a little more downside should be followed by another bounce tomorrow morning and then turn back down for a deeper pullback at a minimum. The sloppiness of today's decline makes this interpretation more of a guess than I'd like but so far I'm seeing enough confirmation of the deeper pullback (or the start of the next leg down) to have me staying in my short off this morning's high.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 3:56:49 PM

The drop into the close has SPX breaking its uptrend line from April 12th but not decisively so. The DOW looks like it's coming down to land right on it for the close.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 3:52:24 PM

I think Amgen (AMGN) reports tonight as well and I see the biotech sector--BTK and the ETF BBH--is one of the few that's strongly in the green today. But the BBH daily candle looks like it will be a combination hanging man doji and just a long-legged doji, either of which would make a good reversal signal with a red candle tomorrow. BTK gapped up today and a gap down tomorrow would leave an island reversal. Today's new high on BBH is being met with negative divergences. Are you long any biotechs? Might be a good idea to hedge or take some profits.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 3:51:29 PM

Can envision a "reverse h/s" pattern in USO setting up. Neckline at MONTHLY Pivot ($51.85). Head at MONTHLY S1 ($49.39) from last week. Left shoulder at $50.05.

For symetrical pattern, USO would need to make "right shoulder" pullback to WEEKLY Pivot/MONTHLY 38.2% overlap of $50.27, then rebound and break neckline.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 3:45:39 PM

Techs have done relatively well today. Perhaps there are more than a few who think Texas Instruments (TXN) will do well tonight with their earnings report. The trouble is the stock is anohter one that's had a nice run up into earnings. Looks like a sell-the-news setup to me.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 3:43:25 PM

EIA's # Days of Supply (Crude Oil) Table at this Link

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 3:43:17 PM

The good news for the bulls today is that the "pullback" is on lighter volume.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 3:41:34 PM

Relatively bullish post-expiration bid for oil today. Last week's inventory and gross inputs look BULLISH for crude oil in my opinion.

Weekly % Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity rose to 90.41%. Highest since 91.45% for week ended 01/05/07.

My # days of Supply fell to 21.62 from prior week's 21.96.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 3:40:26 PM

I'm sure the bears were hoping for something more than this when the DOW broke its winning streak at 15 out of 16. But the day is not over--we could easily see some buy programs drive the DOW up 25 points and get it into the green to make it 16 out of 17. The biggest problem for the bulls right now is terrible market breadth. Right now only 9 out of 30 DOW stocks are in the green.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 3:33:54 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The trust funds that help fund the Social Security and Medicare programs will each last a year longer than projected last year, with the Social Security fund now seen running dry in 2041 and Medicare's hospital-insurance fund exhausted in 2019, the trustees of the entitlement programs said in their annual report Monday. Trustees said the report underscores the need for action to put both programs on a firm, long-term financial footing as the Baby Boom generation prepares for retirement. "The serious concerns raised by the Trustees Report demand the attention of America's policymakers and the public," said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who serves as managing trustee of the programs.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 3:33:27 PM

Trustees see Soc. Security trust fund exhausted in 2041

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 3:31:39 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures closed almost 3% higher Monday as worries that violence in Nigeria following weekend elections might spread to the country's oil-rich Delta region and disrupt exports from the world's eighth-biggest oil producer lifted prices to a more than one-week high.

Reports that workers at four refineries in Belgium may go on strike next month, as well as uncertainty related to Wednesday's U.S. data on petroleum supplies added support to Monday's session.

Overall, the oil market is experiencing continued volatility, said Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia Corp.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 3:30:54 PM

Buyers have returned and the TICKS hit +1000.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 3:28:54 PM

Trustees: Medicare Projected To Go Broke By 2019

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 3:14:03 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 3:04:30 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/23/2007 3:03:02 PM

It's a drag, but it's all that matters it seems.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/23/2007 3:02:41 PM

The real issue is the Yen. Battle at JPY June pivot (0.008492).

Marc Eckelberry : 4/23/2007 3:02:01 PM

The problem is that the media was calling for a pullback this week and that puts too many in the bear camp.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/23/2007 3:01:02 PM

We should get down to weekly pivots, but it is painful to watch.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/23/2007 2:56:51 PM

One day, it will be. BPNDX getting up there.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/23/2007 2:52:52 PM

You can almost feel the fun hedge funds are having squeezing shorts. This is not an easy market to sell.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 2:44:36 PM

So far I'd have to say the pullback pattern today looks more corrective than impulsive. That suggests the market could be consolidating before pressing higher. Part of that consolidation may include more of a pullback (or sideways) but as long as it continues to look like this then the greater the chances of seeing an upside resolution. The alternative interpretation of today's pattern is that it's getting ready for a strong decline, in which case it will break all kinds of support levels and will be clear as a bell. Right now the jury is still out.

The COMP is fighting resistance at its previous high in February and the broken uptrend line along the lows since last November. But it takes a break below 2500 to say something more bearish is happening here. If it finishes with another little doji today all it means so far is indecision. Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 2:33:23 PM

The open number system also agrees with the internals that you should be short or be selling the rallies. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 2:31:59 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $51.34 +2.57% ... after kiss of WEEKLY R1 ($51.40).

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 2:29:04 PM

SPX is still trying to hold onto its uptrend line from April 12th but looks ready to let go. The similar support line for the DOW is close to 12900.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 2:26:25 PM

AD volume and VIX are very clear now and it has turned into a sell the rally type of day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 2:20:09 PM

KIMBERLY-CLARK NET UP 64% ON SALES GAINS

DJ- Firm earns $452 million, or 98c a share, in 1Q, helped by growth in North American personal-care business and strength in emerging markets. Excluding items, earnings rise to $1.03, topping estimates by 2c. Sales rise 7.8% to $4.39 billion.

KMB $71.14 -1.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 2:16:18 PM

L-3 COMMUNICATIONS 1Q NET RISES 17%

DJ- Provider of military communications systems reports net income of $162.1 million, or $1.29 a share, while revenue rises 14% to $3.3 billion. Firm also says it acquired Geneva Aerospace and has agreed to acquire Global Communications.

LLL $91.39 -1.22% ...

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 2:15:27 PM

USO is back up for what could be a retest of its broken uptrend line from January, currently just above $50. It's a good short here with a relatively tight stop just above. I wouldn't want to see it go much higher than 51.50. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 2:14:28 PM

ARCH COAL 1Q NET FALLS 53%

DJ- Coal miner reports net income of $28.7 million, or 20c a share, 5c above estimates. Lower prices, weather-related shipment challenges and higher depreciation costs hurt earnings. Revenue falls 10% to $571.3 million.

ACI $37.54 +6.64% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 2:12:33 PM

NOVARTIS 1Q NET UP 11%, BEATS ESTIMATES

DJ- Novartis reports 11% rise in 1Q net profit to $2.2 billion with an EPS rise of 11% to $0.92 per share, driven by strong sales of its leading hypertension and cancer drugs. Result beats analyst calls for $1.89 billion. Company sees pharmaceutical growth accelerating.

NVS $57.54 -0.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 2:10:19 PM

HASBRO RISES ON STRONG 1Q PROFIT

DJ- Shares climb 9% as toy maker swings to net income of $32.9 million, or 19c a share, as revenue rises 34% to $625.3 million. Results trump analysts' expectations as Marvel line helps to drive the quarter's performance.

(HAS) $32.91 +8.93% ...

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 2:08:44 PM

At 1481 SPX is testing its uptrend line from April 12th, a break of which would be the first sign a top is in.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 2:07:05 PM

VIX.X 13.04 +8.03% ... after kiss of WEEKLY R1.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 1:56:28 PM

Markets really needed this rest and I hope it goes down further. Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 1:54:18 PM

Now the internals are talking to me.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 1:53:33 PM

Gee TICKS even made it -1000. Wow!

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 1:53:12 PM

I just heard my 800 TICKs alert go off and I looked to see how much the buyers had moved price upward and lo and behold it was a -800 TICKS alert.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:52:24 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.16 -0.19% ... Recent NAV history to 4/19/07 Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 1:52:10 PM

If you tried a short you would have had to put in a wide stop, wider than I would have been comfortable with.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:50:18 PM

DJ- OP-ED - High-Yield Market Confounds Doubters - Returns on high-risk corporate bonds surprised many last year with double-digit gains, and the winning streak continued in 1Q as default rates hit 10-year lows. But one long-time market watcher sees some warning signs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:49:25 PM

EARNINGS PREVIEW

DJ- Aerospace Firms Aided By Airlines, War- Most major U.S. aerospace companies, continuing to ride high on strength in the commercial-aircraft market and growing military spending, are expected to report higher 1Q profits.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:46:05 PM

GOLDMAN RAISES $20B FOR BUYOUT FUND

DJ- Brokerage gets $11 billion in committed capital for its GS Capital Partners VI Fund from qualified institutional and high net worth clients and $9 billion from the firm and its employees.

GS $222.53 +1.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:44:41 PM

ACS FOUNDER UPS OFFER TO $62 A SHARE

DJ- Affiliated Computer Services' Chairman Darwin Deason and his investment partner Cerberus Capital Management boost offer to buy the company to $62 a share in cash from $59.25 a share.

ACS $60.58 +3.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:42:25 PM

ASTRAZENECA PAYS $15.6B FOR MEDIMMUNE

DJ- Deal will transform the size of its biotechnology business and allow AstraZeneca to enter the vaccines market. Price of $58 a share represents a 21% premium to MedImmune's closing price.

AZN $55.98 -5.18% ...

MEDI $56.66 +18.01% ... today's most actively traded.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:40:49 PM

BARCLAYS, ABN AMRO ANNOUNCE $91B ALL-SHARE DEAL

DJ- ABN Amro and Barclays agree to terms of a $91 billion merger, forming a combined group that will be based in Amsterdam and be called Barclays PLC. Additionally, ABN says it has agreed to sell LaSalle to Bank of America for $21 billion.

BCS $58.56 -2.40% ...

BAC $50.43 -1.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:36:26 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $114.99 -1.46% ...

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 1:36:01 PM

MSFT is at an interesting point--last November it rallied above the trend line along the highs since November 2002 (the top of its b-wave consolidation after the 2000-2002 decline) and then dropped back below the line in February. It has since bounced back up to the line and has stalled there. Here's the weekly chart: Link

The daily chart shows the little ascending wedge pattern for the bounce off the March low: Link And just for perspective, this monthly chart shows the long sideways/up consolidation since 2002 and how it looks like a bear flag. If this were an hourly or daily chart would you want to buy this bounce or short it? Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:35:19 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $50.95 +1.79% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:34:08 PM

Nigeria (Update) DJ- Gunmen battled security forces Monday in Nigeria's restive southern oil region, leaving at least seven people dead in the area's main city, police said.

Gunfire and the thud of heavier explosions, either mortar rounds or rocket-propelled grenades, sent residents fleeing. Rivers State Police Commissioner Felix Ogbaudu confirmed at least seven dead. But 10 bodies could be seen lying in the street.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:16:05 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $50.60 +1.09% ... "jumped" from $50.40 to $50.76 last 15-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:15:03 PM

DJ- Gun Battles Break Out In Nigerian Oil Region

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:11:19 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 1:02:53 PM

I'm not sure if I should tie INTC in with the semis, techs, blue chips, or what. But so far it's carrying through on the bearish reversal signal I posted last night (10:25 PM below). After leaving a hanging man doji the bears will want to see a red candle for today. Link

Whether that will have negative connotations for the semis is hard to say. With the number of mixed signals today, Jane's suggestion for taking to the sidelines is a pretty good one. Let the market establish a direction here. If you feel you must be in the market I prefer the short side.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 1:02:05 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 1:00:12 PM

VIX heading up and AD volume under 0 would keep me short IF you want to trade.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 12:46:07 PM

VIX is midrange supporting the notion of putting your trading mouse away for now.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 12:45:20 PM

Keene I agree price is certainly not bearish so you don't want to be short but the internals are not bullish to support at long either. AD line is +81 and AD volume is hovering around 0.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 12:43:51 PM

The semis have pulled back a little but so far nothing bearish here. If the pullback in SMH can hold at or above 35.80, the top of the consolidation triangle it's been in, then this should resolve to the upside. That would require the support of the broader market so it's a little dicey here since I'm seeing the broader market ready for a larger pullback. But looking at just this pattern I'd say buy the pullback with your stop just below 35.80. Think of it as a hedge play against a short on one of the major indices. Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 12:33:37 PM

Price is building a bull flag here but the internals are telling us to be short. At times like this the best trade is no trade. Sorry but I think one of the best services we can provide here is preservation of trading capital so you can live to trade another day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 12:30:13 PM

04/13/07 to 04/20/07 Sector Bell Curves at this Link

Sector Legend at this Link

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 12:28:30 PM

For those interested in trying to find a tradeable bottom in the home builders, keep an eye on the price of lumber. I think it will be a while. I had shown a chart of the lumber contract in last week's Market Wrap to show that while the home builders were getting a bounce the price of lumber was heading for new lows. The lack of demand for lumber continues to point to a lack of demand from new home construction. Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 12:25:31 PM

I see more downside from but it will take awhile and we are now into the lunch hour lull. Oh great!

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 12:10:00 PM

Bullish% BUILding reversed back up to "bear correction" status last week. Fell to 48% on its chart, has reversed up at 54.00% and was 54.40% as of Friday's close. Needs 70% to achieve "bull confirmed" status.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 12:07:29 PM

Dorsey/Wright's Major Market Bullish % Table (updated) at this Link ... Getting caught up after being out last week.

Only the Over The Counter (very broad NASDAQ Composite Stocks; roughly 3,000) yet to reverse back up to "bear correction" status @ 56.00%.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 12:01:08 PM

I was reading over the weekend several analysts who have turned bullish on the home builders. Just in time for a turn back down I think. The correction off the March low has now achieved two equal legs in its bounce at 645.93 (the lower low in April means a lower high for the 2nd leg up). Link

I have been suggesting for the past few weeks that we could see a bounce up to its 50-dma (currently 650.15), perhaps its 200-dma, before turning back down and heading for new lows. After this morning's quick spike up to 650.55 the setup is there for this index to turn back down now.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 11:52:26 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Dan Wiener, editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors, says that while the Vanguard Group has a reputation for outstanding funds some of the firm's issues are laggards, following questionable strategies with only a low-cost structure to make them attractive. In a radio interview with Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch senior columnist, Wiener stressed the importance of sticking with Vanguard's top managers and best-designed products. He included Vanguard Strategic Equity (VSEQX), Vanguard Selected Value (VASVX) and Vanguard Global Equity (VHGEX) as buys but said he would get out of Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities (VIPSX) , Vanguard High-Yield Corporate (VWEHX) , Vanguard Target Retirement 2025 (VTTVX) and Vanguard International Growth (VWILX) .

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 11:50:17 AM

VIX is making new daily highs as AD volume making new daily lows but the bears just do have enough to bring this market down.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 11:47:48 AM

The Trannies were looking stronger this morning but have now given up their gains and making new lows for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 11:46:55 AM

Boeing (BA) $93.57 +0.30% ... INDU/SPX/OEX component generated reversing higher PnF buy signal last week at $93.00, a triple-top buy signal.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 11:27:24 AM

Keene (09:33:40) ... It is good to be back. Yes! I remember the 2002 OIN renewal special. Good luck on the CMT!

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 11:24:07 AM

Caterpillar: Sales To Exceed $50B By 2010

Sees Profit Growth In Top Half of S&P500 By 2010.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 11:14:13 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 11:02:13 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 10:57:57 AM

WEEKLY/MONTHLY Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link ... BIIIG move up in the BIX.X last week, but just shy of MONTHLY R1.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 10:52:21 AM

The market is holding up here so it's looking like it's going to press higher. If it does then watch the DOW/SPX upside Fibs at 12996/1489. Not much to do here but wait to see what resolves here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 10:39:40 AM

US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $50.28 +0.45% ... probes WEEKLY Pivot ($50.27). Held WEEKLY S2 ($49.14) last week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 10:32:41 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Closed one (1) of the CAT-HM; Established stop on the two (2) CAT-EA.

Stopped on the one (1) SPG-SB when the stock (SPG) traded $116.30.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 10:21:58 AM

Swing trade put stopped alert for the Simon Property Group SPG July $110 Put (SPG-SB) at the bid of $2.65.

SPG $116.30 +1.64% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 10:19:12 AM

Swing trade call exit alert ... Let's sell one (1) of the Caterpillar CAT Aug $65 Calls (CAT-HM) at the bid of $9.45

CAT $72.85 +1.43%

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 10:13:35 AM

Swing trade covered call establish stop alert ... place a stop to buy back the two (2) Caterpillar CAT May $72.50 Calls (CAT-EA) should the stock trade >=$73.35.

CAT $72.88 +1.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 10:06:09 AM

Caterpillar (CAT) $72.97 +1.60% ... upgraded at Morgan Stanley to "equal weight" from "underweight."

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 10:04:15 AM

SPX shows a small ascending wedge for the completion of its 5-wave move up from March 30th and within the 5th wave the 5th wave = the 1st wave at 1487.08. Just a tad higher is 1489 where the larger 5th wave = 62% of the 1st wave. Link This is why I'm thinking the rally is ending here. It's starting to drop more steeply as I type this up so if you shorted the high you can now bring your stop immediately down to a new daily high. If it runs back up for last attempt at a high, and you're stopped out, try it again as soon as it appears to be tipping over.

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 10:02:23 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 9:53:28 AM

SPX hit its Fib target and many traders may be looking to take profits as the DOW nears 13K. It's time to start nibbling on a short here.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 9:52:08 AM

The brokers (XBD) are pushing back up a little this morning and could still tag their Fib target at 253 (for two equal legs up from March 14th). But the broken uptrend line near 251.50 (almost there as I type) could stop it. The short term pattern looks like it could be completing an ascending wedge for the final move up so this one tells me it's topping at resistance. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 9:42:52 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $222.84 +1.28% ... new all-time high.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 9:42:04 AM

The Fib targets for the DOW and SPX, if they can push up this morning, are at 12996 and 1487. There are two other Fib targets for SPX at 1488 and 1489. I don't see a push beyond that, if it can even get up there. It's time to watch for a short entry.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 9:35:04 AM

AD line is a bearish to neutral -326

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 9:33:40 AM

Welcome back Jeff. Do you remember the P&F Charting document you did for the 2002 OIN renewal special? I reread that this weekend as part of my studying for the CMT exam (I'm pursuing my Chartered Market Technician certification) and wanted to compliment you again on what a nice job you did with that.

Keene Little : 4/23/2007 9:26:01 AM

It was a valiant effort to push the equity futures higher last night but as we head into the open it has been given back. As I had mentioned in the charts below, we could see a small run higher this morning so be mindful of that. But the risk is that the patterns can be counted as complete at this point for a setup to give us a pullback at a minumum.

Even the metals look like they could get another small push higher (Fib projection for gold is 700.60 if it does) but as Jane mentioned, with the US dollar rallying a bit if it continues then any rally in the metals will be suspect. Even the euro is confirming a turn in the currencies is probably upon us: Link The pattern in the metals matches the equities and looks ready for at least a pullback.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 9:22:57 AM

Here is the jtHMA spreadsheet. Pretty bullish isn't it? Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/23/2007 9:21:08 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles and updates to CDE and CAT Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 9:09:30 AM

The open number system is a very good guide on Mondays since the daily and weekly open are the same on Monday. I will post those charts right after the open although you can get a good idea of where they will open with the overnight futures charts.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 9:06:17 AM

... I guess one could add and the FED's printing press.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 9:05:36 AM

Here is comment I just read on Marketwatch, "While a slowing U.S. economy and earnings may not do much for the stock market, investors have remained heartened by a seemingly endless pool of money that keeps finding its way into equities - either through share buybacks, higher dividends, leveraged buyouts or mergers."

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 9:03:06 AM

Kimberly-Clark reported a 64% increase in quarterly profit, as results were helped by higher sales, especially in developing and emerging markets. The maker of personal-care and health-care products recorded a 7.8% gain.

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 9:00:33 AM

When the US $ rallies Gold does not although the rally in Oil will help it out a tad but the odds are not in your favor for a long gold trade today. Link

Jane Fox : 4/23/2007 8:52:01 AM

Markets seem to be hanging around their respective PDHs and could be getting ready for another push upward. This would not be good for the bulls, they need to take a breather before any more rallies. Link

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