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Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:01:47 AM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 10:29:26 PM

You can read the commentary on each of those charts at the end of the Tuesday's postings.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 10:27:40 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Roadmap updates:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT 60-min: Link
RUT daily: Link
CME: Link
GOOG: Link
Gold (GLD): Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/24/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 5:03:45 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 5:01:06 PM

Gold (GLD) is holding above its broken downtrend line from May 2006 so that's bullish. Like the equity market this one looks like it could consolidate for another day or two before pressing higher. I don't have a good feel for how much higher it could go (it may only be good for a minor pop above the trend line along the highs from July 2006). Link

Because of my bullish take on the US dollar I can't get excited on the bullish prospects for the metals. The consolidation pattern this afternoon leads me to believe the decline will continue tomorrow and that would be a break back under its broken downtrend line, leaving what will look like a head fake throw-over. Need more price action to help determine the next move.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 4:53:15 PM

CME needs to turn right back up soon otherwise it's going to look more bearish than just an under-throw here to finish the leg down within the sideways triangle. The key level for the bears is 510 but with each break of a previous low it gets more bearish. Link

GOOG continues to give up its large gap up from last Friday (gap gets closed at 471.47). Uptrend support is at 475 and then close to gap close by its broken downtrend line from January and uptrend line from mid March. A break below 469 would be potentially bearish and a break below 462 would be confirmation that the bears have wrestled the ball back. Watch those support levels if you want to try to buy the dip here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 4:44:53 PM

Today's/Tonight's Earnings Calendar is as long as your arm Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 4:43:21 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 4:41:39 PM

The RUT's daily chart shows a similar setup as for the NDX in that it looks like an ascending wedge is near completion. The 2-day consolidation we've had could continue for another day or two and then press higher again and if it did it would complete the EW count that calls for a top either here or after a rally up near 840. This chart says stay long until the break but be careful since the break could be swift. Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 4:33:08 PM

The RUT also has the same possibilities based on the short term choppy price pattern. The key levels are 836 to the upside and 816 to the downside. In between could be a lot of chop. Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 4:21:43 PM

The wave pattern on the NDX has gotten choppy and ugly again (and it was doing so well there for a bit). This makes identifying the high for the move a lot more difficult but long is the place to be until it breaks down. The increasing steepness in its uptrend lines suggest this is nearing the high for at least the current move. A common theme--there are negative divergences at each new high. This runner is gasping for air now. Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 4:12:19 PM

The SPX 60-min chart shows the same EW possibilities that I showed earlier for the DOW ( Link ). The price pattern since yesterday morning's high leaves the door wide open for a continuation of the sideways consolidation that will then lead to new highs. It takes a break below DOW 12735 and SPX 1464 to suggest something more bearish has started. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 4:12:05 PM

Indiana Mayor Reports Riot at Prison ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 4:11:04 PM

BP PLC (BP) $67.76 -1.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 4:10:26 PM

'Bumbling Petroleum' Manages to Halt Record Profit Runs

DJ (partial)- BP today blamed its 17% first quarter profit drop on everything but its bumbling management: lower natural gas prices, lower production, refinery outages. What it buried in its profit data was a doubling of U.S. West Coast refinery margins (which are mostly profit) from $11.22 to $22.21, said the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights.

"The company at least owed a thank-you to motorists in California and Washington State, who kept their results from looking even worse," said Judy Dugan, research director of the nonprofit, nonpartisan FTCR. "California and Washington State are paying the highest prices in the nation." Washington State's governor and attorney general launched a price probe () yesterday, but California's elected officials remain in a mode of "hear no evil, see no evil and especially speak no evil" about gasoline prices, said FTCR.

California's average price is $3.34 a gallon, up 16 cents from a month ago and Washington State is at $3.15, even though Washington uses plain regular gasoline, with no clean-air additives. BP's "indicator" profit margins on refining also rose elsewhere in the United States, but not as much as in the West.

BP has been savaged for its shoddy maintenance, which resulted in an Alaska pipeline shutdown last year and a 2005 explosion that killed 15 people at a Texas refinery. Last week, a Texas judge harshly criticized BP ( ) for sending cheery monthly newsletters to at least 900 local residents who could have been called as jurors in civil trials involving the Texas City explosion.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 4:05:02 PM

re: your 3:22 post, I think you mean 13300, not 12,300. Don't want you to get misquoted :)

Thanks Barbara. It took me a long time to get used to typing 12000 and now it's apparently just as hard to type 13000. I still catch myself typing 1300 instead of 1400 for SPX too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 4:04:39 PM

Seventeen Year Old Trophy Building Reduces Consumption by 34%

DJ (partial) - The prestigious Homer Building in downtown Washington, D.C., was designated an Energy Star building this week. After almost eighteen months of rigorous analyses and the implementation of numerous energy conservation methods, the 410,000 square foot trophy class office building is now consuming 34.2% less energy than at the start of the project.

The approach of The Homer Building team: a thorough audit and virtual tour of the building to identify every possible place where energy consumption could be lessened while still maintaining top quality service to building Clients. Infrared testing of heat loss was a part of this analysis. Areas identified for adjustment include: the replacement of high wattage incandescent light bulbs with equally luminous fluorescent bulbs which use as little as 8 watts; installation of motion sensors, automatic faucets and auto- flush toilets; adjustments to the energy management system which reduces the use of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) according to the actual usage of office space; installation of photocell lights for exterior accent lights; and extensive Client communications program reminding building Clients to turn off lights at the end of the day or when their office is not in use.

The Homer Building is the first office building in Washington, D.C. to be honored with the Energy Star label for 2007. Only six office buildings received the label in 2006 and only 26 Washington office buildings have received the Energy Star label in total. Throughout the Akridge portfolio, goals for energy conservation include the reduction of each building's consumption by at least 5% per year. Three Akridge-managed building have accomplished this goal with an average consumption reduction of 14.7%.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 4:02:04 PM

I should also mention that the sentiment on the US dollar is about as bearish as it's ever been, and in the territory (sub-10%) that has marked previous significant lows in the dollar. So we've got sentiment matching an ending pattern for the dollar and the drop in the metals and other commodities today may be a signal that smart money is exiting their commodity long positions.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 3:57:31 PM

China Soon To Become Largest Greenhouse Gas Emitter

DJ (partial)- News out of both China and Canada is bolstering the Bush administration's decision not to ratify the Kyoto global warming treaty, choosing instead to seek technological innovation and participation in the Asian-Pacific partnership on Clean Development and Climate, according to a scholar with the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA).

China is soon estimated to surpass the U.S. as the leading emitter of greenhouse gases. Yet earlier this month the Chinese government reaffirmed that while they would participate in negotiations to shape a post-Kyoto treaty limiting greenhouse gas emissions, they would not commit to binding reductions in CO2.

"The Bush administration has been at the forefront of sound policy on at least one environmental issue," said NCPA Senior Fellow H. Sterling Burnett. "China rightly fears continued poverty and the health and welfare problems that it brings more than the distant potential indirect problems posed by global warming."

According to Burnett, the Bush administration recognized a Kyoto-style treaty would do little or nothing to prevent warming or help the environment, while putting us at a competitive disadvantage with China and other newly emerging economic powerhouses.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 3:53:19 PM

Mexico's 1st Half April Core CPI Rises 0.03%; Consensus was +0.18%

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 3:52:13 PM

The dollar is now very close to support by the trend line along the lows since May 2006 and counts well as finishing a descending wedge here--daily chart: Link The implication here is that the US dollar is setting up for a strong rally out of this pattern, one that could take it back up to $93-94. Weekly chart: Link

This would then set up a very long and sharp decline in the USD in 2008-2009 to new lows but for the rest of this year a stronger dollar would depress the value of commodities and is one of the reasons I'm bearish the metals (and oil, along with slowing demand).

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 3:51:58 PM

YM downside target off triple top (13031)is 12902 if we can't close above 13020.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 3:50:03 PM

The type of frantic choppy upside, with quick down stabs feels bearish.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 3:46:36 PM

YM feels like it ended a run, at least for now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 3:45:25 PM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $8.51 +3.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 3:44:41 PM

Cornell Companies (CRN) $21.36 -0.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 3:44:13 PM

Corrections Corp. (CXW) $55.49 +0.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 3:42:57 PM

please sell it off. $45.00 would be nice.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 3:41:09 PM

Geo Group (GEO) $49.01 -1.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 3:33:26 PM

Nymex Crude Oil (cl07m) settled down $1.31, or -1.99% at $64.58.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 3:22:24 PM

As a reminder, this daily chart shows the EW count possibilities for the DOW. The first, which is the bearish count, calls the current rally a correction (albeit a large correction) to the Feb-Mar decline (a new high for the correction doesn't negate the kind of a-b-c correction it would be in this case). It calls for a hard decline to follow very shortly. Link

The more immediately bullish count calls for a small consolidation (which is what the price action since yesterday's high could be) that continues for another day or two and that will be followed by stair stepping higher eventually to the 12300-12500 target area probably by June.

The third possibility is also bullish but not for a while and it would involve some volatile price swings between now and July as price swings up and down in a larger sideways triangle before resolving higher in a big rally into the fall. Hopefully the short term pattern here will start to provide some clues as to what's next.

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 3:18:03 PM

ES was never able to break its overnight high. ER just pierced its ON low and both YM and NQ are well above their respective OH ranges. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 3:18:00 PM

Biiig volume today in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $14.61 +4.05% ...

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 3:16:20 PM

The swing high at 2:15-2:20 was made with a lower MACD so I think we are done for the day and there are no more tradeable moves. Link

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 3:10:20 PM

VIX is pressing up against its daily lows which just happens to be its PDH so ES may break its daily high but then again AD line is still at -311 but then again AD volume is above 0 but then again it is late in the day but then again ...

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 3:07:21 PM

TICKS +800.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 3:02:39 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/24/2007 3:03:10 PM

AAPL One of my best friends, works for an Apple store, his take is that the iPhone will be far more popular than iPods. Just on the inquiry he's seen so far. They are gearing up for an onslaught of sales and sees the iPhone being a huge success. Just look at Cingular (AT&T moble) they received 1 million inquiries back in March when news broke ... Weekly chart... Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 2:47:51 PM

That was the definition of a short squeeze.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 2:45:52 PM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 636.73 +0.27% ... inches green. Reclaims WEEKLY Pivot 632.19.

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 2:45:23 PM

DAteline WSJ - Vonage wins ruling allowing it to continue signing up new customers while it appeals patent-infringement verdict. Full article coming soon.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 2:44:07 PM

SPX 1,481.88 +0.06% ... either side of MONTHLY R1. WEEKLY Pivot provided the support this morning.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 2:42:54 PM

I wonder if AAPL is being set up for failure (in its price). With all the hype about the iPhone could it all be priced in at this point? What happens if they disappoint and growth is not quite everyone expected (and priced in)? Look what's starting to happen to MSFT and Vista.

And AAPL's weekly chart says maybe a little over $100 but with the negative divergences I'm just not sure this one's going much further than it's gone. Could be just me and my desire to short everything that moves, including my grandmother. Oh wait, she's already short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 2:39:14 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $72.86 +1.40% ... sets up for test of yesterday's high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 2:36:04 PM

Amarin's Huntington's drug fails ... Reuters Story Link ...

AMRN $0.85 -77.77% ...

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 2:34:54 PM

Right now it would look best if we got another poke higher to give us a 5-wave move upfrom the last pullback near 1:30. Then it would be a good time to nibble on a short (day trade). DOW 13K is certainly looking like it will be the wall today.

Tab Gilles : 4/24/2007 2:33:09 PM

Jane, followup to the AAPL chart....bouncing off of trendline. Once they deliver the iPhone to the market in June, this stock will takeoff. Link Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 2:31:05 PM

As I often say, price is the final arbiter since that's where money is made and lost. But the weakness of the rally sure doesn't get me interested in buying this, at least not yet--it looks too vulnerable to a downside surprise. On the last poke higher the DOW came within 6 points of its Fib target at 12995 (for two equal legs up from March 30th) but if it manages to push a little higher then the short term pattern for the rally leg points to 13055 as the next likely upside target. Link

At this point it's just as likely that we're in the middle of a larger sideways consolidation, which would be bullish for another rally leg. If this kind of sideways consolidation continues for another day or two then abandon all efforts to short the market and get long for another leg up that could get as high as 13400-13500 to finish off the rally from March 14th (as an impulsive 5-wave move). Until this sideways mess resolves itself it's not a bad idea to just sit and wait (quick day trades only until this breaks).

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 2:22:37 PM

This looks like short covering and we are getting a little carried away. Triple top YM, breadth is negative.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 2:20:25 PM

Toyota Tops GM In 1Q Global Sales ... AP Story Link

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 2:11:23 PM

This is something you will not see often, the $ and Gold both falling. VERRRRYYY intertesting day. Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 2:08:45 PM

Today's rally in the DOW is on negative breadth, again--only 14 of its 30 stocks are in the green. The big one of course is IBM. HON and DD are doing very well also.

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 2:07:43 PM

Keene I agree the only fly in that ointment is the AD line is still a bearish -407 and volume under 0.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 2:06:33 PM

This market sure seems determined to get the DOW to 13K. There's still an upside Fib target at 12996 that didn't get tagged yesterday so perhaps that's what needs to get done here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 2:06:17 PM

Vonage (VG) $3.99 +38.06% ...

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 2:05:54 PM

VIX to new daily lows but the AD Volume is still under 0 so upside moves will not be explosive, tradable but not explosive so you will have to be patient and use wider stops than normal. Link

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 1:52:23 PM

Interesting reaction to the SEC news I must say. Link

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 1:51:29 PM

Probably not a good time to be long AAPL

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 1:50:53 PM

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday charged the former general counsel of Apple Inc. with participating in the fraudulent backdating of options to Chief Executive Steve Jobs and other executives in 2001, and with altering company records to conceal the fraud.

The SEC accused Nancy Heinen, the former general counsel, of participating in the scheme, alleging it caused the company to underreport its expenses by almost $40 million.

Apple's former chief financial officer, Fred Anderson, separately agreed Tuesday to pay $3.5 million to settle charges that he should have noticed Ms. Heinen's efforts to backdate one big grant in February 2001 to members of Apple's executive team.

Their attorneys couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 1:49:19 PM

Dateline WSJ - Former Apple CFO Fred Anderson issues statement blaming Steve Jobs for backdated options grant. Full article coming soon.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 1:45:51 PM

Was just looking at the OIH ... sitting on $150, which had been formidable resistance since last June.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 1:48:10 PM

Sorry Jeff, just got back (all this nail biting is making me hungry). It's very early to make a mega-bearish call on USO because the pattern of the drop from the 54.22 bounce high is currently looking corrective enough to call it a bull flag.

But just for the sake of the exercise, let's assume the April 2nd high is the end of the correction to the July-January decline. Since that decline looks like a clean impulsive move down, labeled as such on this chart, it calls for another leg down to follow. Link

Using a price projection from the decline, a 62% move would be at 34.40 and equality would be at 22.16. But equality from a percentage standpoint (the decline was -42.9%) would be at 30.96 so a rough estimate for a downside projection would be 31-34.

BTW, is Greenspan talking this afternoon? The market seems awfully jumpy.

Tab Gilles : 4/24/2007 1:43:54 PM

Oil Service (OIH) Several companies in the OIH Oil Service etf are reporting the coming weeks. The OIH chart indicates the etf may pullback here. Watch the 20-ema. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 1:42:03 PM

Good gravy ... what's BHI $72.53 -0.60% doing back up here?

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 1:41:09 PM

NQ has left its PDH in the dust but the other markets have not even tested their respective PDHs. Interesting Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 1:40:07 PM

SMH $37.25 +3.55% ...

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 1:39:28 PM

I agree Marc, we are into a very bullish market and I surely do not see an end to it. It will end but not in the near future.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 1:37:15 PM

You must find something to buy instead of always thinking short.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 1:36:48 PM

Shorting everything is a sure way to lose everything.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 1:27:03 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 1:20:42 PM

What's your downside target Keene? I know where your stop is.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 1:19:15 PM

Same for the qm07m

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 1:17:20 PM

check out the cl07m with volume turned on. 60-minute intervals. If the "right shoulder" holds, everyone will be monitoring that doji from this morning.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 1:06:48 PM

But I guess it's in the eye of the beholder (trader) in this case. I see USO as bearish after having received a slap for giving its broken uptrend line a kiss goodbye. Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 1:04:35 PM

Lower volume on the pullback to the neckline (or rally to the neckline of a inverse H&S) and lower volume to the top of the right shoulder (bottom in this case).

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 1:02:33 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 12:51:14 PM

Question on CTA test ... For a more power completion of a head/shoulder pattern, does a technician look for ...

a) Average volume

b) Above average volume

c) Below average volume

d) None of the above

at the right shoulder?

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 12:46:56 PM

USO $50.25 -1.89% ... juuust under WEEKLY Pivot. Session low has been $50.04.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 12:46:13 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $114.23 -0.63% ... sitting right on WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 12:44:07 PM

Well, we're "here now." Yesterday I highlighted a possible reverse h/s pattern on the USO's 60-minute interval chart.

USO $50.32 -1.75% ...

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 12:33:18 PM

NYSE has been one of the more bullish indices so watching it for clues here will be important in the bull vs. bear battle. The rally off he March lows can be counted a couple of different ways but if it's an A-B-C bounce then it should have topped out. This morning it dropped down to its uptrend line from March 14th and has bounced. Link

The bounce will either fail and lead to a break of its uptrend line, very likely telling us the rally is finished or it will head to another new high. The trouble for the bulls is that even another high may be just a minor one inside an ascending wedge that shows bearish divergence. These ascending wedges are very common in bear market rallies (or topping in the final move of a bull market) so it's potentially an important pattern here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 12:30:21 PM

That VLO news continues to cap oil prices, but keeps the bid under refined products, especially gasoline.

At some point (USO > $52.00-$52.50) I'd have to think the MARKET looks forward as capacity comes back online.

Last week's EIA data had Gross Inputs into refiners rising by 356,000 barrels/day to 15.78 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 12:22:20 PM

Valero's St. Charles gasoline unit shut 10-14 days ... Reuters Story (last night) Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 12:20:51 PM

I've got two upside targets for SMH to consider if you bought the breakout or pullback to the top of its consolidation pattern. Link

The first target is 37.43 which is where the 2nd leg up in the a-b-c pattern from the July 2006 low would equal 62% of the 1st leg up. The 2nd target is the price objective out of a sideways triangle--take the widest part and project from the breakout point. That gives about 38.95. The short term pattern in the rally makes it look like the lower target could be the end of the move.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 12:19:11 PM

Bulls will run this market higher than you can imagine possible. Because no one believes in it, while it is making new highs. If technicals are great and no one believes, you have a raging bull.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 12:17:25 PM

I think you said that about April, Keene...)

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 12:10:41 PM

CBOE SEAT SELLS FOR RECORD $2.3M

DJ- The Chicago Board Options Exchange says two seats sell for record prices yesterday, the first at $2.299 million and a second seat for $2.3 million. In 2007, 29 seats have sold for prices ranging from $1.8 million to $2.3 million.

BOT $192.06 -0.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 12:09:26 PM

CME 1Q NET UP 42% AMID RECORD VOLUME

DJ- Exchange's 1Q net rises 42% to $130 million, or $3.69 a share, while revenue increases 32% to $332.3 million. Average daily volume climbs 30% to 6.5 million contracts. CEO says CBOT merger may close in mid-July.

CME $534.93 -2.27% ...

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 12:08:02 PM

Marc, you're right when you say May will not be like last year. It'll be worse. ;-)

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 12:07:39 PM

IBM BOOSTS DIVIDEND, RAISES BUYBACK

DJ- IBM shares rise 4.3% after Big Blue's board approves a 33% increase in its quarterly dividend to 40c and an additional $15 billion share repurchase program. Treasurer says company has been 'very underleveraged.'

IBM $99.31 +4.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 12:06:30 PM

DUPONT 1Q NET UP 16%, BACKS VIEW

DJ- Chemical maker posts net income of $945 million, or $1.01 a share. Excluding items, DuPont earns $1.07, beating analysts' expectations of $1.03. Net sales rise 6% to $7.85 billion. DuPont reiterates full-year profit forecast.

DD $49.94 +1.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 12:05:21 PM

AT&T NET UP 97% ON MERGER, WIRELESS GROWTH

DJ- Telecommunications giant nearly doubles its 1Q net income to $2.85 billion, or 45c a share, amid acquisition of BellSouth. Adjusted earnings of 65c top analysts' estimate of 61c. Operating margin rises to 23.7% from 17.3% and company boosts full-year forecast to 23%-24% from 21%-23%.

T $39.28 -1.23% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 12:05:11 PM

I do find it very surprising that we have not tested 10 DMA for ES and YM in 7 days. That alone keeps me cautious, but there will be some big buyers when and if we get down there. May will not be like last year.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 12:02:02 PM

The jury is still out on what to make of the pullback from yesterday's high but the bearish interpretation is that the dip buying we're seeing is what will set up the next, and stronger, leg down. Declines start off slowly because of those who keep looking at it as an opportunity to buy and it's only after the decline starts to pick up some speed that all the dipsters realize the errors of their ways. Whether that happens from here or from a higher level is not clear yet. I still prefer the short side against yesterday's highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 11:56:12 AM

We could chop around now. SMH 37.15 is a pretty big deal and could stall the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 11:55:41 AM

Lockheed 1Q Net Increases 17%; Boosts Outlook Again

LMT $95.97 -1.31% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 11:54:05 AM

SMH hits my target of 37.10.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 11:53:54 AM

There is too much cash that was on the sidelines with all this wall of worry fed by the press. Hey, if you know about it, the market does to. Just watch the Yen and play the carry trade until the Yen really starts climbing, then get out. For now, it still works.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 11:50:14 AM

IBM $99.18 +4.16% ... looking at par ($100). WEEKLY R2 $99.15.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 11:49:21 AM

I have not seen a market like this in years. I know I'm repeating myself, but it really looks like every dip is bought before you can say uncle.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 11:47:15 AM

SMH breadth positive at 19:1. TER $16.70 -0.11% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 11:44:05 AM

Bulls are still in control.Looks like the ES gap close was it.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 11:43:45 AM

The RUT is also heading back up to its broken uptrend line, currently near 824.40. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 11:42:16 AM

Option premiums for chips will be "expensive" out the money this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 11:40:54 AM

VIX.X 13.55 +3.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 11:40:33 AM

VXN.X 16.66 +1.70% ... slips back under WEEKLY R1.

SMH $37.02 +2.91% ... right at WEEKLY R1.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 11:40:27 AM

While the DOW is relatively stronger today, and holding in the green, its current bounce is back up to its broken uptrend line from April 12th. Kiss goodbye? It's a good place to try to short this bounce. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 11:36:27 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $50.96 -0.50% ... fading.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 11:34:38 AM

DuPont 1Q Net Up 16%; Backs '07 EPS View

DD $50.00 +1.64% ...

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 11:33:45 AM

Keene I agree bear flags all over the place.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 11:33:10 AM

SPX looks like a bear flag bounce.

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 11:32:35 AM

BTW TICKS just hit +1000

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 11:32:22 AM

Russell - 60 has turned red. I would like to see this flow into the daily before taking a swing long in the market.
DOW - Ditto
S&P - Ditto
NAZ - Ditto
MID Cap - Ditton
Gold the 60 minute chart turned red and that flowed into the 120 minute but I would like to see it flow into the daily before I would be comfortable adding to my long GLD position.
Oil - monthly is still red so this one is hard to trade at least for a longer term long. On the other hand I would not be short for sure.
Silver - May be setting up for a longer term long here.
Trans - same story as the equity markets.
Wilshire 5000 - same story here as well.
Us $ - What can I say about this market other than it is certainly telling us stay long Gold. Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 11:31:23 AM

Breaking higher again so the upward correction continues (looks corrective so now it's a question of where it will stop). The DOW and techs continue to show relative strength.

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 11:21:42 AM

NQ never did leave its PDR, YM is back into its PDR and ES and ER remain below their respective PDRs. Link

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 11:20:03 AM

Here is your other piece to the puzzle that is telling you shorts only today. Link

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 11:17:24 AM

This is your get short and stay short kind of day. Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 11:14:09 AM

Two equal legs up in the bounce off this morning's low is at YM 12981 and ES 1484.75, just tagged. If this is to turn back down, this is a good place to look at a short play.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 11:10:34 AM

Following up on previous posts on the home builders I had shown that the 50-dma looked like it might stop the rally and finish the correction to the February-March decline. At this point I'm thinking it's done and this index will now head for new lows. If it manages instead to turn back higher then it should be able to tag its 200-dma at 660. But right now I like a short on the home builders (pick on the weakest one in the group). Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 11:04:10 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 10:55:23 AM

Table Of Data On Existing Home Sales (Jan, Feb, Mar) at this Link (see 10:07:05)

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 10:55:09 AM

The short term wave count for the move down suggests it will stair-step lower from here--perhaps another down-up-down sequence before setting up a larger bounce. SPX 1470 is a decent downside target for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 10:41:47 AM

Watch ES 1480.50 on a retest drop. Bulls would much prefer to see these markets move down a little further.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 10:40:26 AM

Rite Aide (RAD) $6.41 +0.31% ... set 52-weeker 4/13 and 4/16.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 10:39:43 AM

Following MER here (and the banks in general) shows a potentially bearish move ahead. MER rallied higher than I thought it would over the past week, topping out at 92.84 at yesterday morning's spike high. The Fibs were pointing to resistance between 90.00 and 90.34 but with this morning's turn lower it looks like it may have finished. Like the brokers, it looks like an a-b-c bounce off the March 14 low has completed. Link

The big question now, in the bull vs. bear debate, is whether we'll get a small consolidation here (4th wave) and press higher again or if the 3-wave move up from March 14th has in fact finished correcting the January-March decline (my preferred count at the moment). MER's pattern, like the one for the brokers and with the low volume in the bounce off the March 14th low, is the reason I prefer the short side of this market.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 10:39:20 AM

Is that it???

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 10:38:53 AM

CVS Caremark (CVS) $35.95 +2.45% ... new 52-weeker today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 10:38:48 AM

Express Scripts (ESRX) $95.64 +7.59% ... new 52-weeker today.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 10:37:09 AM

Put up your 10 DMA's if ES loses 1480.50. That would be a standard retrace, long overdue and healthy.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 10:36:28 AM

Walgreen (WAG) $45.65 -0.47% ... moves back under correlative 50-day and 200-day SMA ($45.70).

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 10:35:36 AM

ES closes a gap at 1480.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 10:32:55 AM

S&P- World'07 Growth To Slow, But Outlook Still Positive

DJ- The world economy will grow at a slower pace this year than in 2006 but its outlook remains positive as a recession in the U.S. appears unlikely and the risk of inflation is minimal, ratings agency Standard & Poor's Corp. said Tuesday.

"We see world growth slowing down but it is still robust," said S&P chief European economist Jean-Michel Six at a company seminar in Dubai.

Gross domestic product in real terms will grow at just above 2.2% in the U.S. this year, down from more than 3% in 2006, Six said.

However, the impact of the U.S. economy's slowdown is going to be less severe than in previous cycles as the world economy is more balanced now than in 2000, with the share of world output being more equally distributed between the U.S., Europe and emerging markets, Six said.

Slower growth in the U.S. this year was "not surprising after 17 consecutive" interest hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Six said.

Despite the slowdown, "the risk of a true recession in the U.S. is 20%," Six said, adding that the Fed may cut rates later this year.

"We believe the Fed will take a cautious attitude before deciding what direction to take," Six said.

The U.S. housing market is less of a concern for the economy despite a recent "correction" as the market is "more stalling than plunging," according to Six.

He also played down concerns about the impact on the U.S. economy of delinquencies of homeowners with sub-prime adjustable-rate mortgages, which are most exposed to higher interest rates, as they make up only 8% of all borrowers, Six said.

Six was also upbeat about European economic growth, saying S&P had improved its forecast for real GDP growth in the euro zone to 2% in 2007 as falling unemployment supports consumer demand.

Unemployment in the euro zone is expected to drop to 7.6% in 2007, a 0.2% decline on the year before.

Despite a sustained period of high oil prices, concerns about a potential acceleration in world inflation hadn't materialized, Six said.

"This is not to say that the world likes high oil prices. But it has learned to live with it," Six said.

The world consumer price index is also kept in check by the increasing flow of cheap products from China, he added.

"We don't see world inflation coming back in a significant way," Six said.

The world's overall economic outlook "remains very positive for the foreseeable future," but could be adversely affected if geopolitical factors come into play, Six said.

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 10:26:19 AM

After the 3rd test of the broken uptrend line from June 2006 the brokers (XBD) look like they're giving up. I showed this setup yesterday as it was hitting the trend line--looks like a great short play. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 10:25:04 AM

JetBlue Airways Narrows 1Q Loss; Trims 2007 Guidance

JBLU $10.52 -4.27% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 10:23:18 AM

JPT June at 0.008505. That's bearish for stocks.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 10:22:07 AM

Yen bid. NQ needs to hold 1859.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 10:21:40 AM

Krispy Kreme's CFO Quits ... KKD $10.04 -1.56% ...

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 10:18:17 AM

I follow and value your opinion a lot, with earnings noise out of CME, would love to hear your scenarios...is the picture getting any clearer from conference call with ICE situation? (I have not heard the conference call)... thank you.

I haven't heard anything about the conference call either. I have no clue what's going on with the discussions about ICE. As you know I don't use news, earnings or other such reports because in the end it means nothing. We all know that traders react differently to the same kind of news at different times. That's why I stick with the charts.

As I posted on CME yesterday, it looked like it was heading down to its uptrend line, which it has done this morning. It could do a little throw-under and then turn around and rally (as per the bullish wave count which calls the current leg down as the completion of a triangle 4th wave correction). But a break below 527 would suggest something more bearish is happening, with confirmation of the bearish wave count by a break below 510. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 10:12:47 AM

IBM is very bullish, huge bid for that stock and holding up the DOW.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 10:11:58 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $51.63 +0.80% ... edges above WEEKLY R1 ($51.40). Big test for strength yet to come at MONTHLY Pivot ($51.70) and WEEKLY 19.1% retracement ($51.85).

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 10:09:48 AM

Yen on a bid, don't argue with price.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 10:08:44 AM

Watch NQ 1864.75 resistance. Support is weekly P at 1854. Bulls could most likely get their long overdue pullback, especially for YM and ES, to 10 DMA's.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 10:07:05 AM

US March Existing Home Sales Down 8.4% To 6.12 Million Rate

DJ- Existing-home sales took the biggest tumble in 18 years during March as poor weather struck demand.

Home resales fell to a 6.12 million annual rate, a 8.4% decrease from February's revised 6.68 million annual pace, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. February's rate was originally estimated at 6.69 million.

The median home price was $217,000 in March, compared with $213,600 in February. The March price was 0.3% below $217,600 in March 2006.

The 8.4% drop was the sharpest since 12.6% in January 1989. The NAR blamed bad winter weather.

"For the last couple of months we've been expecting a weather 'hit' on home sales finalized in March," NAR chief economist David Lereah said.

He added that the subprime problems in the housing market might have hurt sales.

The March resales level was below Wall Street expectations of a 6.42 million sales rate for previously owned homes.

The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.16% last month, down from 6.29% in February, according to Freddie Mac (FRE).

Inventories of homes fell 1.6% at the end of March to 3.75 million available for sale, which represented a 7.3-month supply at the current sales pace. There was a 6.8-month supply at the end of February, revised from a previously estimated 6.7 months.

Sales fell in all four regions of the U.S. Demand dropped 10.9% in the Midwest, 8.2% in the Northeast, 9.1% in the West, and 6.2% in the South.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 10:03:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 10:02:23 AM

TXN may be finishing its long correction with a bang this morning. Two equal legs up from its July 2006 low is at 35.47 which is exactly where it opened this morning and has since dropped from that opening price. This is also the level of previous highs in March 2002 and several attempts at this level from Sept 2005 through May 2006. If TXN is not able to rally above its opening high today then it's going to set up a potential high for its rally.

On the weekly chart I show the A-B-C-D-E wave count for its correction to the 2000-2002 decline. That decline was wave-(a), the 2002-2007 correction has been wave-(b) and now we're due a wave-(c) move down (new bear market leg down). Note the bearish divergence on weekly MACD throughout its correction. Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 9:46:06 AM

On the quick spike up I see that SPX and the DOW stopped at their downtrend lines from yesterday morning's high. What's still hard to discern is whether or not the market is just consolidating its gains here or preparing for a bigger drop. I'm still short from yesterday morning with a stop just above that high. I'll simply hold until the market proves to me that it's going higher again.

As for a new trade this morning I don't see a reliable setup yet other than a short against those downtrend lines. The strength of the techs is of course the worrisome part for someone short the market. Small caps are not joining in with the techs though so it could be just a divergence with the techs based on the strength in TXN.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 9:44:06 AM

WAG June $47.50 Calls (WAG-FW) currently $0.25 x $0.30.

WAG $46.25.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 9:42:25 AM

WAG June $45 Calls (WAG-FI) currently $2.00 x $2.10.

VIX 13.15 +0.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 9:41:25 AM

Looking to buy WAG, let it "run" higher, then write a CC.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 9:41:01 AM

Buy, run write alert for full position (200 shares for $10k = full position) in shares of Walgreen (WAG) $46.18 +0.67% here. Stop goes $45.25.

Jeff Bailey : 4/24/2007 9:35:39 AM

Bank of Canada Leaves Rates Unchanged at 4.25%

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 9:12:33 AM

Yesterday the US$ rallied and Gold took a breather but notice it is now coming back. Like I have said before this is not a market you want to short. Oil is consolidating at its PDHs and is in a very good position to retest yearly highs at 68.025 (using the Emini contract and not the big contract CL). Link

Keene Little : 4/24/2007 9:08:01 AM

Futures have had a bit of a yo-yo ride overnight but currently equities are near the middle of the range so no discernable direction as we near the open. Currencies, bonds, metals and equities all seem ready to start the day where they left off and it's a guess as to what that means for the next move. Time to sit on your hands and wait for some direction here.

Jane Fox : 4/24/2007 9:03:57 AM

Equity markets traded in a range overnight with both ES and YM breaking their respective PDLs, NQ breaking its PDH and ER staying within its PDR. NQ has made it quite clear where its resistance is today because its overnight high was exactly at its PDH, 1869 - 1871. Also ES made a double top at, 1491.50, its overnight high, so you certainly need to keep your eye on this number if trading ES. On the same token ER made a double top at 835.10-835.20 with PDH at 835.60 so we have some resistance here as well. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/24/2007 6:15:22 AM

Bullish bets are off if NQ can't hold 1864.75 after the Alctatel news. Yen drop is helping support for now.

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