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Keene Little : 4/25/2007 10:55:03 PM

60-min charts from tonight's Wrap:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX daily: Link
RUT 60-min: Link
RUT daily (I continue to like the ascending wedge pattern on this one which calls for a top probably within the next few days): Link

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 10:49:59 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/25/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:46:16 PM

Yep ... Market, sector, stock ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:45:19 PM

If long Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $36.33 +1.31% ... from my mentioning a couple of weeks ago when "steel stocks" were heating up, snug up a stop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:43:51 PM

Allegheny Tech (ATI) earnings press release Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:41:48 PM

OEX Lower 50 Components at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:36:27 PM

So ... when you see mention of the VIX.X moving counter to what it "should be doing," these are the relatively quick steps of action.

1) Look at an SPY option chain (10-seconds)

2) Look at an SPX option chain (10-seconds)

3) Look at the top 10, 20, 30, 40, or 50 OEX components (10- seconds).

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:33:51 PM

What I was doing there, with OEX, was looking to see if there was an SPX/SPY heavyweight that was showing any PRICE action against today's bullish trade.

I don't see one do you?

Oh when a market wants to buy.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:31:22 PM

S&P 100 Top 50 Weighted Components at this Link

** denotes an INDU Component.

Remember! The OEX/SPX/SPY are market cap weighted indexes. The INDU/DIA is a price weighted index (higher priced stock carries bigger weight)

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:05:24 PM

Good gravy ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:00:24 PM

Analysis: Not really seeing anything in either the SPX, or SPY option chains (volume and Up/DnTick) that would explain the VIX.X rise counter to SPY/SPX rise.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 8:57:19 PM

SPY Options Chain sorted by volume at this Link

The most active looks "neutral" at 1,535 based on Up/DnTick Volume.

Gosh ... look at the 1,350 put (SXY-QJ). Long put liquidator (sell to close)? Salvaging what's left? Could be a spec directional (buy to open). Maybe check tomorrow's Open Interest.

Notable DnTick Vol on the 1,510 call, but that volume down the list a bit.

Selling 1,510 + 8.93 on average = 1,519.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 8:46:58 PM

Wait ... no, that's not it ....

Call buying should have VIX.X falling.

Hmmmm ... Maybe the May 1,510 Calls?

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 8:43:33 PM

There it is ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 8:36:48 PM

Let's do a little extra work ... pull up an SPX option chain.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 8:36:09 PM

Hey! All of the top 3 SPY options are matching my Ameritrade Level II volumes, for all market makers/exchanges. Fantastic!

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 8:33:14 PM

SPY Options Chain sorted by today's CBOE volume at this Link

Jane and Marc made some observations today regarding VIX.X.

VIX.X will rise when put buying/call selling is greater than put selling/call buying.

I do not see anything here that confirms that belief.

Either something in the SPX options, or ONE particular heavyweight.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 8:13:25 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Stopped on the two (2) CAT-EA at the offer of $2.05 when CAT traded $73.35.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 7:08:41 PM


Jeff, Where could I find the article on P/F charts that Keene mentioned yesterday (Monday). Are there any books you could recommend on the subject? ... Michel

Reply: Many of the bits and pieces that comprised the article Keene mentioned were at one time part of the OptionInvestor.com "Ask The Analyst"/"Trader's Corner" archives, but those were "lost" I'm sorry to say. I may have the original on diskette, but I'm not sure I could find it anytime soon.

This weekend, I will cover the bullish and bearish vertical counts.

A GREAT BOOK that is a MUST READ for any trader/investor (especially an options trader) is Point and Figure Charting by Thomas J. Dorsey ... yes... www.dorseywright.com). Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

If you can, search eBay, or other places (old used bookstore perhaps) and get one of the "older" editions as it has Purdue University study regarding probabilities of various chart patterns (bullish triangle, bearish triangle, triple top, triple bottom, and the most powerful bearish signal reversed as well as a few other patterns). Later editions don't include the findings of the study.

My hardback edition has the Purdue University study findings on pages 30 and 31. (I've looked for the "edition" in my book, but can't find it)

Tom eventually took these tables out as traders/investors did NOT understand the importance of the major market and sector bullish % as to the study's findings, which are quantitative measures that the point and figure charting system is based on.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 5:56:17 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 5:17:38 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 5:07:17 PM

SMMX Level II / extended ... probably a computer/market maker, ready for some liquidity at tomorrow's open. However, good example here of "showing your hand" and counting cards. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:53:28 PM

That trader that shorted $17.81, that you down at $11.00 isn't it?

If one of our subscribers, don't get long/short extended, then show EXACT size in direction of your trade.

Play the game, but don't show your cards. If you short 1,000, don't go and place same 1,000 lower. Maybe 350, or something a little different.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:47:52 PM

Check out SMXX extended.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/25/2007 4:46:44 PM

Good note on the VIX, Jane. Yes, I noticed myself that the daily was not in sync on the ES new highs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:45:46 PM

DJ- Iran's Larijani: Nuclear Talks 'Pleasant,' Will Continue Thursday

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:44:15 PM

LSI Logic (LSI) $9.92 +0.50% ... darts lower to $9.50 extended.

SMH $37.70 +1.53% ... edged lower $37.65.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:33:56 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $95.35 +2.26% ... surges to par $100 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:31:40 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $56.81 +26.94% ... looks like a trader could of bought all they wanted in last night's exted from $47-$49.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:26:01 PM

Oooo, that might be it (trading halt). Check out revisions to Q2 outlook.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:22:31 PM

You see ... if I saw something in earnings, like EPS of +$0.06 on upside revenue, with stock halted, I'd take the shot at the inet offers. Once nasdaq releases for trade, all inet orders that are GTC/extended are fair game.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:20:14 PM

SMMX inet Level II shows just 200 at $16.25, then 100 at $8.80 and 900 at $18.72, another 400 at $19.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:18:52 PM

PnF chart of SMMX weak, bearish vertical count to $8.00. I can't figure out why stock is halted based on earnings press release.

Sometimes an after-hours trader can catch some Level II instinet trade standing orders that hadn't been cancelled.

Remember RIMM?

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:14:10 PM

Symyx Tech (SMMX) $17.80 -0.83% ... Earnings Press release Link

Consensus (4-5 analysts) was for EPS of $-0.03 on Revenue of $24.98M

Estimate sheet Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:10:38 PM

Stocks halted for trade Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:08:08 PM

QualComm (QCOM) $45.34 +2.20% ... all over the place on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 4:06:30 PM

Today's List of Earnings (morning/after the bell) Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 3:59:42 PM

I watch the VIX very closely and I have never seen these two divergence this much.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 3:58:47 PM

Updated VIX/ES chart. Very interesting. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 3:58:04 PM

Remember I showed some charts of the VIX and ES earlier and commented on how these two trade in sync.

I wonder if this is telling us tomorrow will be a huge down day? We'll see. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:49:20 PM

QQQQ $46.25 +1.20% ... today's trade at $46.00 gives reversing higher PnF buy signal on $0.50 box. ((7x's * 3) * 0.50) + 43 = $53.50

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 3:46:14 PM

The market has now replaced the housing market of 2005. Will it end the same?

That's the way I see it setting up Dave. But don't get in the way of this freight train now. It's got some serious momentum behind it, at least from a price standpoint. I think there are probably a lot of bulls now on the sidelines who can't believe what they're seeing. Many will finally jump in at the top, perturbed that they're missing the rally.

I didn't think it would happen today but the DOW hit its next target at 13100 so I wouldn't be surprised if now is when we'll at least start a pullback.

Tab Gilles : 4/25/2007 3:42:10 PM

Marc I hear you... I was scanning some weekly 3 year charts AMZN Link TSO Link RSH Link I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple takeoff if earnings area blowout... Link

Bullish % on NDX & SPX are in overbought...so I'd be very carful here. Link Link

Stocks trading over their 200ma... Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:41:25 PM

No help from SPY's PnF. BVC of $108 exceeded a long time ago.

Maybe QQQQ some help.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:40:30 PM

Next major psychological benchmark ... SPX 1,496.17 +1.06% .... is 1,500.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:38:53 PM

DJ- Nymex RBOB Gasoline Climbs to 8 1/2 Month High

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:36:43 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $51.33 +1.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:36:22 PM

DJ- Iran, EU Envoys Report Progress In Talks, To Meet in 2 Weeks

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:31:30 PM

BJ Services (BJS) $29.88 +4.03% ... after "terrible" earnings report yesterday. Check out Jan-April resistance, then yesterday's low. Tie with OIH observation I made yesterday regarding 150.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:29:22 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) 224.85 +1.86% ... new all-timer here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:27:57 PM

Holy cow ... BHI earnings. NOTHING like CEO guidance last quarter.

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 3:27:16 PM

I agree Marc. This could very well have a relatively small pullback correction and a final fling to the upside but it's starting to look more and more like a blow-off top. Just like what happened in 1987 and we of course know what happened next. But the final leg up in a bull market can be the strongest and that certainly appears to be the case here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:26:41 PM

Must have been some type of news today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:26:31 PM

BHI $78.73 +8.14% ... good gravy!

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:25:18 PM

03:00 Interanals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/25/2007 3:23:22 PM

I'm all for this bull market, but I also know what can happen when we go parabolic like this.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:19:44 PM

CL and QM short-term traders ... if you went long "right shoulder" yesterday, then take profits here at WEEKLY R2. Can always get back on board on break of neckline. Nice gain here.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/25/2007 3:17:22 PM

Last the DOW hit 90 on BPINDU, we corrected in February.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/25/2007 3:12:52 PM

This is way out of line. YM 13141 is weekly R1, DOW already tagged 100% March at 13080. Its a swing short here, you just have to have the nerve to live through it.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 3:09:57 PM

What a day!! Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:05:17 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 3:04:10 PM

Don't let the CAT-EA eat up prior current and prior CAT-HM gains and other CC trades.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:57:52 PM

Swing trade covered/naked call buy back alert for the CAT-EA $2.05.

CAT $73.35

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:57:01 PM

CAT-EA $1.99 x $2.00

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:56:34 PM

CAT $73.25 +0.60% ... session high.

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 2:55:00 PM

I've been on the phone for the past 30 minutes but it looks like staying long is the key here. SPX has been hugging the underside of its broken uptrend line from April 12th and the new highs haven't been accompanied, yet, with new highs in MACD or RSI so I still question the strength of the rally but that doesn't matter, yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:54:05 PM

cl07m 60-minute interval chart with reverse h/s setup. Volume observation, throw in some MACD divergence from recent past. Divergence as in ... it looked similar yesterday, but diverges today. Volume turned on per yesterday's CTA quiz Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:48:54 PM

IBM was yesterday's (one stock) that added the 3.33% to the INDU Bullish % reversing higher buy signal at $98.00. A trade at $102 would be a spread tiple top buy signal.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:47:24 PM

Intl. Business Machines (IBM) alert $100.723 +2.27% ... testing its 01/16/07 high close here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:44:01 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 834.24 +0.95% ... tries to break free of a "drag it up" 04/16/07 high close (831.44)

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:31:49 PM

USO 60-minute interval chart with a reverse h/s pattern fibonacci retracement at this Link

A BEAR can argue head/should top too. That makes $52.00 even MORE important.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:10:40 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $72.93 +0.16% ... back in the green.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:08:52 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $51.31 +1.82% ... back for a look at WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:07:55 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $157.41 +3.43% ... that's a new 52-weeker.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 2:06:15 PM

Not a lot of movement from the Beige Book just a continuation of the upward grind.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 2:05:26 PM

Beige Book Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 1:54:44 PM

One stock yet to give the reversing higher PnF buy signal to get to 100%! Check March 2003.

One can QUANTIFIABLY say that this market is just as RISKY for bulls today, as it was for bears in March'03.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 1:52:36 PM

Dow Industrials Bullish % from Dorsey/Wright at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 1:51:53 PM

The market is expecting good things from the Beige Book because it is in rally mode.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 1:51:12 PM

Remember the FED beige book out in 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 1:48:01 PM

Oh my! I've said before that the bullish % indications can "always go to 100." I'd thought I'd never see the day ....

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 1:42:52 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Energy Department reported an 11th-straight weekly drop in motor-gasoline supplies Wednesday, along with a nearly 3% decline in refinery activity, boosting futures prices for reformulated gasoline to their highest level since mid-August.

"The draw in gasoline and the decline in refinery runs will support prices this week and throughout next [week]," said John Person, president of NationalFutures.com.

Even though crude-oil inventories rose, Person expects "a continued price hike" in crude back toward the weekly high of $66.30 -- up to $67.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 1:44:20 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) conventional $1 box (below $100) and $2 box (above $100) at this Link ... Hard to fathom, but in late Nov'04 when the DIA traded $106 (up to $108, then 3-box reversal back lower), that column of X from $99 to $108 suggested a longer-term price objective of $129.

Bullish and bearish vertical counts, as well as horizontal counts, are based on the science of ballistics.

This very chart was "key" to my calling the bottom of the most recent recession ended 2002 as the DIA achieved its then bearish vertical count, and Oil and Natural gas began showing signs of a rebound.

Remember that Head/shoulder bottom in Natural Gas produce Apache Corp (APA)?

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 1:30:52 PM

SPX is back up against its 1489 level. The broken uptrend line from April 12th is now a little higher--closer to 1492.50 now. Another trend line that could cause some problems here is the one along the highs from May 2006 which is where the February rally topped out. It's currenly near 1490. Link Bearish divergences continue on the 60-min chart. The trend is up and you trade with the trend but if you want to try finding a top, this is where to try. Just keep tight stops and only try a couple of times to see if it works.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 1:29:21 PM

Speaking of Bullish Vertical Counts ... the DIA $130.15 +0.51% did achieve its bullish vertical count of $129 last week.

Tab Gilles : 4/25/2007 1:28:07 PM

OIHThe oil Service etf found support at $150 and seems to be setting its sights on last years highs of $163. Will that set up a Double Top? Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 1:23:37 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 1:14:11 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 1:02:09 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 12:56:17 PM

Oddly enough if today's rally continues to chug higher it becomes bearish sooner rather than later (looks from here like an upside target near 13100). But if it stops and starts another pullback then the bullish wave count will still look good where it calls for another rally leg after the pullback. As for the short term here, we've got two bullish up-channels still in play. It takes a break below 12950 to confirm at least a short term high is in place. Until that happens, stick with the trend. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:56:53 PM

Since I have a bullish bias on oil, what was YOUR observation of VOLUME yesterday? I do think both sides of every trade, but from a BEAR's perspective ... cl07m, qm07m , uso at what might be a "right shoulder" on 60-minute interval?

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:53:59 PM

It has been my beliefe, based on historical observation, that stocks tend to lead the commodity.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:53:05 PM

It's not just the refiners either.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:52:47 PM

Oooo this is looking bullish for USO.

OIH $156.39 +2.76% ... see yesterday's MM comments.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 12:50:59 PM

If the AD Volume is making new daily highs you don't need the VIX to new daily lows to support the bullishness just for it to be hovering around daily lows. Earlier this week we saw AD volume to new daily highs but so was the VIX and that is a formula for price moving sideways because the two are fighting each other. Today they are a tag team. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:48:32 PM

Do you have some positions in YOUR account similar to PTR (stock price in relation to option strike/price/prior VIX.X). Maybe 12:45:37-12:46:32 helps. Gets you thinking ahead.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:47:17 PM

PTR's Option Montage at this Link with some Level II option of PTR-EE and PTR-FE

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:45:37 PM

PTR's Option Montage ... Current MM Profile position is long (1) of the PTR-FD @ $4.10. So, RIGHT to buy $120 + $4.10 = $124.10.

Glanced at montage to see if it made sense, based on option pricing to sell CC of $125.00.

At $0.30 bid, I don't think so, not on 1 contract.

Do pick up on action in PTR-FE via CBOE. 21 traded, 4 left on offer, so thinking larger investor/trader (2,500 shares of $116 stock = $290K) doesn't think PTR gets much above $125 + $1.50 = $126.50 at June expire.

I/you might be a CC seller of May $125.00 (based on $120 + 4.10) if we can get $90/$100 "dividend" this month.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 12:37:06 PM

Just got a reminder from Linda that we have the FED's beige book out at 2:00EDT. That one is usually a market mover.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:31:22 PM

Quick note ... CBOE sell of PTR-FE for 25 contracts today at offer of $1.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:28:39 PM

VIX.X 12.89 -1.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:26:45 PM

Perhaps the COP June $65 Puts (COP-RM) $0.50 x $0.60.

COP $70.67 +1.47% Link ... triple top buy signal at $69 and bulls/bears have been buying trend.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:20:29 PM

If you're liking the SUN naked puts (04/12/07 02:29:43 PM), COP looks good too!

Again, my MM profiles are a bit "overweight" oil, so discipline of account management has me unable to profile further bull trades.

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 12:17:34 PM

NDX has stalled at the top of its channel so that could be it for today although the short term pattern for the move up today suggests a little bit of stair-stepping higher so be careful of that possibility if trying the short side. The larger pattern still has two possibilities for the rally from the March low--as either a correction to the Feb-Mar decline or as a final 5th wave rally. Link

As the green bullish count shows, if we get a corrective pullback for a 4th wave correction then I see the likelihood that NDX will press up to the trend line along the January 2004 and January 2006 highs, currently up near 1900. Daily RSI is as overbought as it's ever been so we're due a pullback at a minimum.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:16:53 PM

Conoco 1Q Net Up, Rev Falls on Lower Volume, Prices

COP $70.69 +1.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:15:51 PM

UPS 1Q Net Falls On Charges; Backs Full-Year EPS View

UPS $72.16 +0.31% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 4/25/2007 12:09:52 PM

YM is now 3% above 20 dma, my usual envelope max target for that index. For NQ it's a little higher, 3.5%.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/25/2007 12:08:00 PM

Rate fears are also going to come back. There is no way the Feds will lower in May now, IMHO.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/25/2007 12:07:26 PM

MSFT on deck tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/25/2007 12:07:09 PM

NQ next R is 1888.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/25/2007 12:06:35 PM

Don't get me wrong, I'm bullish, but this is the current swing set up.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/25/2007 12:05:26 PM

With the distance we are from 10 and 20 dma on YM, you can start adding short positions as we move up. Gravity will take over at some point for a swing trade, no matter how bullish. It's impossible to time, but you can cost average into a position. Just wait for extremes on every contract.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 12:03:02 PM

AMZN's bullish vertical count is to $78.00 (sometimes a h/s pattern will match the BVC too).

Study at Purdue University showed in BULL status market, the bullish triangle is profitable 71.4% of the time, average gain of 30.9% in 5.4 months on average.

So ... $43 x 1.309 = $56.28.

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 12:00:27 PM

NDX is pushing above the top of its channel now so we'll soon find out if this is a bonafide breakout or just a throw-over. Hard to argue with the bulls right now. That just gets you stampeded.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 11:59:09 AM

Oh my! AMZN unleased a "bullish triangle" at $43 just last week.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:58:14 AM

This is not a time to be short. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:55:54 AM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 11:57:18 AM

Not symetrical h/s bottom, but check out a WEEKLY interval bar chart.

Head $27, ascending neckline $40.75, gives pattern objective of ~$54.

What's the bullish vertical count from PNF?

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 11:53:38 AM

Oh my! ... AMZN $55.05 +23.01%

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 11:52:27 AM

The top of the parallel up-channel for NDX that I showed earlier (10:53) is now close to 1871 so about 3 points higher. It still looks like a good short play there even if only for a deeper pullback.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:51:31 AM

NQ to new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:50:48 AM

YM's daily highs however are 13074 so beware that has been resistance once today and will be again, at least for a while.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:49:49 AM

If buying here I would use YM.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:46:40 AM

Unfortunately though if I don't get to the aerobic part of my workout before 3:00 (PDT) I have to endure Jim Cramer and him I cannot take. I don't know anything about his show because I have never watched it but ever since he admitted what an underhanded hedge fund manager he was I have no use for him. I don't like anyone with so few ethics.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 11:45:04 AM

Correct Answer to yesterday's (12:51:14) ... "b"

Technicians often look for ABOVE average volume at the "right shoulder" of a head/shoulder pattern, and eventual CONFIRMATION on break of neckline.

The thought is that there is great disagreement among market participants at a "right shoulder" which will have volume ABOVE average as bulls and bears fight it out. Then the break of the neckline has market participants getting in agreement as to strength (reverse head/shoulder) or weakness (head/shoulder top) as the pattern unfolds.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:43:33 AM

I have been watching Larry Kudlow at the gym lately (new TVs at each station is great) and I must say even though he is a die hard right winger he has a very good show.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:42:26 AM

I don't watch CNBC throughout the day but I bet they have the party hats out for DOW 13000.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:41:50 AM

Let's take a breather! This is getting just a tad overdone but we have heard that one before haven't we? Retracement back to at least the 23.80% at 12800 would be Ok but even better would be back to 38.20% at 12600, which would probably be the 50EMA once it moves upward. Link

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 11:37:30 AM

Yesterday SMH came within a penny of its 37.43 Fib target where the 2nd leg up was equal to 62% of the 1st leg up from July. Link Note that this was also a tag of its downtrend line from January 2004 through January 2006. It's possible therefore to call the SMH rally complete, which is an a-b-c move up from July 2006.

In the larger weekly pattern that a-b-c move is the one that completes the larger sideways triangle from the October 2002 low (note that I'm using a log scale otherwise the 2002-2007 "rally" looks like a flat line). Link Therefore it wouldn't be at all surprising to see price jump briefly above the downtrend line before topping out. But the bottom line here is that bulls need to be cautious about the semis from here since the pattern counts as complete and the next move will be back below the October 2002 low.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:29:12 AM

AS long as the AD line is as strong as it is today you don't need to worry that it is not making new daily highs but you certainly want to see the volume making new daily highs. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:26:35 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Consumer-products company Colgate-Palmolive Co. reported Wednesday a 50% increase in first-quarter profit, helped by strength in its oral-care business and improved advertising spending, and said its chief executive will step down in July.

Net income rose to $486.6 million, or 89 cents a share, up from $324.5 million, or 59 cents, earned in the year-ago first quarter.

The latest quarter's results included such special items as a gain of $29.7 million from Colgate-Palmolive's sale of its bleach business in Latin America, a charge of $8.2 million related to the recall of Hill's Pet Nutrition cat food and a $73.9 million tax benefit

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 11:25:48 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:11:34 AM

AD volume winning today. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:09:57 AM

Compare this chart to the one I posted at 11:04 and you can see just how important the VIX is when trading ES. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 11:08:53 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 11:07:49 AM

USO $50.71 +0.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 11:06:57 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $115.79 +1.17% ... probes WEEKLY Pivot. At trend from recent 04/09/07 relative high.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 11:04:47 AM

I haven't shown these charts for a while but they still amaze each and every time I look at them. Needless to say the VIX is a very important internal to watch if trading ES. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 11:02:15 AM

DJUSHB 628.36 -0.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 11:01:49 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 10:54:53 AM

Of course if you decide to short ER you have to consider the AD volume is making new daily highs so I wouldn't be expecting to much follow through. You could wait for YM to break above its daily open to take a long though. Link

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 10:53:05 AM

The uptrend lines for NDX continue to get steeper and it's nearing the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since the March 29 low, currently near 1870. Considering these trend lines and bearish divergences I'd say it would be a good short play if it gets up to that level. Even the short term pattern for the rally from yesterday's low is looking like a small ascending wedge (an ending pattern). Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:52:01 AM

EIA: Weekly % Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (%) fell to 87.79% from last week's 90.41%.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 10:51:51 AM

Here are the charts of the "Opening Numbers." I think they will be a very good guide today. Above the weekly no trading and below the weekly stay short. Of course above the daily open is long only. So right now you would be looking for ER shorts and would not be trading ES and YM. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:50:29 AM

USO $50.64 +0.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:50:04 AM

Oil Analysis: Geopolitcal/weather exceptions, USO a tough time getting above $52.00 into next week's EIA report.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:48:13 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs into Refineries fell by 358,000 barrels/day to 15.09 million bpd.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:46:27 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity unchanged at 17.45 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:45:40 AM

My # Days Supply of Crude Oil rises to 21.69 from last week's 21.62.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 10:45:36 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:44:58 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries fell by 457,000 barrels/day to 15.32 million bpd.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:42:03 AM

EIA: SPR Stockpiles up 110,00 barrles (up 254,000 last week) to 689.03 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:40:26 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Stockpiles down 2.6 million barrels to 35.72 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:39:24 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles down 237,000 barrels to 40.45 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:38:11 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles up 2.12 million barrels to 59.50 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:37:06 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles up 5,000 barrels to 117.33 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:36:01 AM

EIA: Weekly Reformulated Gasoline Stockpiles up 107,000 barrels to 1.96 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:35:06 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles down 2.79 million barrels to 194.21 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:34:00 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 2.07 million barrels to 334.48 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:32:16 AM

Confusion with EIA data.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:29:29 AM

USO $50.70 +0.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:29:15 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $114.99 +0.47% ...

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 10:28:26 AM

MER has just broken yesterday's low so I'd say the odds area that we'll see a down day today, or at best sideways.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:20:32 AM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $154.51 +1.53% ... $150.00 now looking formidable support.(formidable resistance for months, broken, then becomes support on pullback last week)

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:19:02 AM

That stock's technical strength caught me by surprise yesterday. Really moved last week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:18:20 AM

BHI $76.85 +5.56% ... "on fire"

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:16:21 AM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert on 1/4 position (04/09/07) for the US Oil Fund (USO) to $49.80.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:14:16 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $50.70 +0.61% ... DAILY Pivot $50.70 here. DAILY R1 and WEEKLY R1 are overlapping resistance, the "key level" intraday. DAILY S1 down at $49.72 is just above the WEEKLY 61.8% of $49.67.

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 10:12:40 AM

It certainly looks like there were some eager beavers to take some profits once the 13K bell was rung.

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 10:09:52 AM

This is the SPX 60-min chart posted last night and so far it's looking like the light red price path is being followed. That says the rally is over and down we go. But, the green path says we'll get either a sharp leg down or a continuation sideways to comple the green 4th wave consolidation to then be followed by another rally leg. Link

If SPX drops below 1480 I'd say the rally for today is finished and then we'll have to see what develops next. A continuation of the choppy sideways consolidation would be a strong clue to get long for another rally leg with an upside target in the 1520-1530 area by early to mid May. In fact the next Bradley turn date is May 7th. It would very likely be the completion of a blow-off top and frankly at this point I'd like to see that happen.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:08:24 AM

Caterpillar (CAT) $72.39 -0.57% ... session high has been $73.18.

The CAT-EA have traded as high as $1.90

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 10:04:01 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 9:49:00 AM

Not only did SPX tag its 1489 Fib target but it was also a retest of its broken uptrend line from April 12th. Link

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 9:45:16 AM

Jeff, let's not stop there. I think it was Schaeffer who said 14400 this year.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:38:47 AM

14,000 Keene!

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 9:38:08 AM

SPX tagged its 1489 Fib target so watch for potential topping right here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:37:58 AM

Dow Components at INDU 13,000 found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 9:32:32 AM

Now that the DOW has tagged 13K and rung that bell, what's next?

Jeff Bailey : 4/25/2007 9:32:26 AM

Dow 13,000 !

Keene Little : 4/25/2007 9:15:19 AM

With the strong move up in equity futures this mornng I see two possibilities after the cash market opens: one, a gap n crap that leads to a somewhat larger pullback than yesterday but still part of a larger consolidation before rallying; or two, the consolidation is finished and up we go in another leg higher.

The trouble (for the bulls) with the 2nd scenario is that the move up will look choppy and corrective. If that continues then it will look like an ending pattern and probably won't make it very high. But clearly it's still a market where you run with the bulls. Just beware the sudden downwash which the lack of market breadth is telling us is coming. The big question of course is when.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 9:09:01 AM

Daily chart of the $Rut shows it hitting resistance and I think a move back to 810.00 would be very healthy. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 9:08:16 AM

SPX back to 1460 and even back to 1440 would be an excellent spot to get long for a longer term swing trade but I'm not sure the bulls will allow that to happen. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 9:03:43 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- FedEx Corp. (FDX) said that the FAA's decision to end a controversial landing procedure at the cargo carrier's Memphis hub should be reversed because it could lead to serious delays in package deliveries across the nation, USA Today reported Wednesday.

FedEx's senior vice president for air operations, James Parker, said in a letter to Federal Aviation Administration Administrator Marion Blakey that the change isn't appropriate and would lead to a significant slowdown in operations, the newspaper said.

"The impact of this change to our 'absolutely positively overnight' service cannot be understated," Parker wrote, according to the report.

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 9:01:11 AM

Not much change in the jtHMA spreadsheet. SPX and Wilshire120 minute chart have turned red. Natural Gas looks like the perfect spot to get long. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 8:47:20 AM

Bonds took a nose dive once the Durable good number came out. Money moving on up to the equity markets?

US$ broke its PDLs so you would expect Gold to break its PDH or at least rally but it is not. The US$/Gold relationship has not been real solid of late. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 8:41:32 AM

They say a picture is worth a thousand words and this picture clearly shows who is in control. Markets really liked the 8:30 Durable Goods report. Link

Jane Fox : 4/25/2007 8:38:40 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Demand for U.S.-made durable goods increased 3.4% in March, led by orders for aircraft and capital equipment, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The increase was slightly higher than the 2.5% gain expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. February's increase was revised higher as well, to 2.4% from 1.7%.

It was the biggest increase in durable-goods orders since December.

Boeing's order book was one big story in the March report. Orders for civilian aircraft zoomed 37.6% higher in March after a 102% gain in February. The aircraft giant booked orders for 119 planes in March compared with 57 in February.

Excluding transportation goods, durable orders rose 1.5%.

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