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Keene Little : 4/26/2007 11:25:02 PM

NDX left a nice little long-legged doji at resistance today (January 2004 - January 2006 trend line) so it's a possible reversal signal. If Friday is a down day it would confirm the signal. It would be even worse if it gaps down and leaves it as an evening star. Bulls don't want to even think about that possibility. If we see a pullback get started, then the question would be whether it will lead to just a pullback over the next couple of days or something more serious. Link

We should be getting close, especially with the 40-week cycle turn date on May 2nd, +/- a few days, and the Bradley turn date on May 7th. These turn dates are lining up well for a market high as per the EW count, overbought indications, and the "sell in May and go away" crowd.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 10:59:07 PM

Roadmap and end-of-day re-posts:

If the MSFT after-hours bounce holds up into tomorrow's cash open then I see the likelihood for a small pop higher in the morning and then the start of at least a pullback. But stick with the trend lines for now and they're all up.
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

CME is looking more bearish now that it dropped lower after the bounce off yesterday's low. The move down from April 16 now looks impulsive. I left the other wave count possibilities on the chart but the preferred count at this point is the dark red one that's looking for a bounce back up to the trend lines around 540 and then a hard drop from there. Link

By the bearish wave count for GOOG it could have finished its 2nd wave bounce today and now it will drop back below its downtrend line from January. The key downside level remains 465 and the upside at 495. Link

The only question on GLD for me is what path it will take to the downside. For now I'm expecting lower and then hopefully the pattern will clear up as it goes. Link

Nice bounce in the US dollar today. Should be the start of a much bigger move to come. It's a good time to sell the EUR/USD pair. Link

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 10:53:19 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/26/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 6:26:28 PM

For traders that may be just starting futures trading and taking "signals" from the MM without stops/targets, I suggest you KNOW these figure BEFORE each day's close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 6:23:15 PM

CBOT Margin Changes from 04/24 Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 6:20:31 PM

Speculative Margin Rates via CBOT at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 5:54:28 PM

Point and Figure Chart Pattern Probabilities at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 5:52:58 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $109.37 +4.48% Link ... $131.25 extended. If long a partial at that triple top buy signal, I'd be looking to capture profits this evening.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 5:36:27 PM

June Nat. Gas (ng07m) settled down $0.179, or -2.30% at $7.602.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 5:35:33 PM

June Unleaded (rb07m) settled down $0.0173, or -0.78% at $2.2089.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 5:34:27 PM

June Crude Oil (cl07m) settled down $0.78, or -1.18% at $65.06.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 5:27:09 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 5:21:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 5:03:50 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 5:01:09 PM

Nice bounce in the US dollar today. Should be the start of a much bigger move to come. It's good time to sell the EUR/USD pair. Link

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 4:56:47 PM

The only question on GLD for me is what path it will take to the downside. For now I'm expecting lower and then hopefully the pattern will clear up as it goes. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 4:55:17 PM

Now up above 30. Maybe some call sellers covering.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 4:54:37 PM

By the bearish wave count for GOOG it could have finished its 2nd wave bounce today and now it will drop back below its downtrend line from January. The key downside level remains 465 and the upside at 495. Link

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 4:51:17 PM

CME is looking more bearish now that it dropped lower after the bounce off yesterday's low. The move down from April 16 now looks impulsive. I left the other wave count possibilities on the chart but the preferred count at this point is the dark red one that's looking for a bounce back up to the trend lines around 540 and then a hard drop from there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:37:28 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $109.37 +4.48% ... surging to $133 on headline numbers.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 4:33:28 PM

And just like that MSFT , lost 30. Those calls...

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 4:31:26 PM

If the MSFT after-hours bounce holds up into tomorrow's cash open then I see the likelihood for a small pop higher in the morning and then the start of at least a pullback (gap n crap). But stick with the trend lines for now and they're all up.
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:28:59 PM

And those were NOT agency crosses above $45.41.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:28:00 PM

If trading SNDK, check your accounts. Extended has been $48.44/$42.11

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:26:06 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $45.20 +2.89% ... lower at $42.20 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:23:59 PM

US Congress challenges Bush to veto Iraq pullout

Reuters Story Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 4:23:40 PM

Looks like they missed this quarter's estimates.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 4:21:49 PM

Let's see if all those call buyers at 30 made easy money. I'm not so sure, but we will find out tomorrow. Overnight could be volatile, especially with GDP and consumer confidence.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 4:20:17 PM

Remember those 30 calls (5 to 1). MSFT needs to do better than this, especially after the fall from highs this year. Many traders were hoping for a big jump to 31/32. It could happen, but right now waiting for guidance. YM will not be affected much by a 1 point MSFT move.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:18:07 PM

SPY $149.64 +0.11% ... flat extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:17:28 PM

QQQQ $46.55 +0.51% ... flat extended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:15:48 PM

MSFT ... Earnings Press Release Link

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 4:15:05 PM

Mr. Softee said something good--their stock is up $1 after hours here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:14:47 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $29.10 +0.37% ... $30.03 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:13:48 PM

Decent buy program into the 04:15 close.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 4:03:46 PM

Well it is only 1:00 here and I am off to the gym. Been a loonnnggg day.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 4:03:18 PM

Thanks Marc. I find the open number system interesting and use it as a confirmation more than anything else.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:02:41 PM

ABX INDEXES TIGHTEN AS SUBPRIME STABILIZES

DJ- Remittance reports on performance of loans made to mortgage borrowers with weak credit in second half of 2005 and first half of 2006 are showing signs of stabilization as subprime-mortgage delinquencies slow.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 4:01:32 PM

SEC INVESTIGATING BARCLAYS UNIT

DJ- Agency's probe follows federal lawsuit that alleges the unit gained non-public information by joining bankruptcy creditors committees that provided information that potentially could be used for debt trading.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 3:59:22 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. 1Q GDP, advance. Expected: +1.8%. Previous: +2.5%.

8:30a.m. 1Q Employment Cost Index. Expected: +0.9%. Previous: +0.8%.

10:00a.m. Apr Reuters/Univ Mich Index, final.Expected: 85.0. Previous: 85.3.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 3:52:29 PM

Just like now.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 3:52:05 PM

Traders have to know that momentum plays work 75% of the time, but that 25% failure is usually violent and takes out many momentum trader's earnings. You have to be quick and not greedy. Usually large contracts and small moves.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 3:50:25 PM

That is a very good mementum system, Jane.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 3:46:16 PM

How can I learn about the Fib and retracement concepts you frequently refer to. Do you have, perhaps, any online reports or references to further evaluate Fibonacci and retracement?

I'm sure we had something written up in the past but unfortunately all of our archived material from years ago got lost in the transfer of ownership to RightSideAdvisors last year. I would suggest doing some online research since I know there's a ton of material out there. Sifting through it will be the challenge.

I googled "trading with Fibonacci" and up popped a slew of sites to check out. Good luck as I think what you'll learn will be tremendously helpful in identifying support and resistance in the market, no matter what you trade.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 3:45:52 PM

The Open Number system would have been a big help in your trading today because this alone would have kept you long. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 3:39:46 PM

YM 13166 was a good entry short. The good thing about YM is that it will be open for trading during MSFT release.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 3:39:02 PM

YM long stop alert ... 13,159

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 3:34:51 PM

YM 13,165

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 3:34:40 PM

YM long raise stop alert to break even.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 3:30:51 PM

I noticed the VIX has been rising since April 16th and yet so has the market. I compared it to the OEX since it is based on the OEX volitility. Something has got to give! Will it be price or will volitility go back into hiding?

Good observation Scott. The VIX has been trending higher since December and I'm hoping we'll see the VIX tag its recent low around 11.50 which would also be at its uptrend line from December. It could be argued that the rise in VIX means there are more non-believers in the rally and therefore more buyers as those who were betting against the market cave in and buy. Link

But the OEX is used primarily by the pros and when the put/call ratio spikes up that's usually an indication that the market is topping. It happened just prior to each of the two prior sell-offs (last May and this February). So perhaps the uptrend in the VIX is a sign that more OEX players have been positioning for what they believe is a long term high setting up here. It's tough to say, but give me VIX 11.50 and I could be tempted to short the market just based on that.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 3:26:54 PM

It's pure short covering engineered by some very aggressive hedge funds. They decided to make the shorts bleed (their own words).

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 3:25:59 PM

BIX.X 401.68 +0.39% ... pressed against their DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 3:23:26 PM

Needed to be above YM's DAILY R1 (regular session established) at, or just after 03:00 to have shot at initial target.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 3:20:52 PM

YM long target/stop adjustment alert ... with YM 13,168 ... raise stop to 13,148 and lower bull target to 13,190.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 3:19:50 PM

I agree Marc. Smellin' like a top in the making to me...

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 3:26:16 PM

It's unbelievable. Maybe one week in 2001, on the downside, but never, ever a move like this on the upside for the weekly in relation to the 5 weekly MA.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 3:15:12 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 3:14:33 PM

Put up a weekly chart of the DOW and I defy you find a move this far away from the 5 and 10 weekly average. Ever.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 3:09:44 PM

The ascending wedge pattern for the RUT continues to fit well, with bearish divergences that go along with the pattern. The only question in my mind as I look at this is where the end will be. It's possible to count the move as complete (per the dark red count) so beware of the possibility for a break of its uptrend next. But a pullback with the broader market and a new high next week could put the cherry on top. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 3:02:31 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 3:01:28 PM

There were just too many shorts from March and we are finishing up whacking them. I always felt April would be bullish and not like last year (at least for NDX) but this frenzy I did not expect.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 2:59:34 PM

Keene, I think MSFT is pivotal to the tech sector, much more than AAPL. Lots of hopes for chips and PC makers ride on Vista.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 2:58:29 PM

re: your 2:50 post. You did the 12,000 thing again instread of 13,000 (Sure wish 12,000 were the real number!)

LOL, thanks Barb. Yes, it should be 13157 instead of 12157. Are we really up here??

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 2:57:14 PM

What's that, 200 points in two days ahead of MSFT earnings? You'd think we were at a market bottom. Considering the impact Vista has on the chip sector, you would think everyone would be a little more nervous.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 2:53:55 PM

The Yen is falling apart.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 2:53:54 PM

But a bad reaction to MSFT should result in only a correction to this rally (by my preferred EW count). A pullback that leads to another push higher next week would look better in finishing the wave count and then calling a major high.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 2:53:14 PM

YM 13167 is 38.2% projection last week. 13163 is 100% March. Those levels need to hold for bulls on close.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 2:52:44 PM

SOX is down due to Akamai.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 2:51:53 PM

Based on where this market is and that p/c ratio on Mr. Softee I have a pretty good feeling what's going to happen after they announce earnings, and it's not going to be a continuation of this rally. If it does rally though then that would leave little doubt in my mind that we're in a blow-off top and it's not going to end well.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 2:50:06 PM

A larger parallel up-channel for the DOW is one based off the uptrend line from July. The top of this channel is where price rode up underneath from November to February. It's currently near 12157 so about 30 points higher. Even with a market with this strength I'd be surprised if it got higher than that. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:49:32 PM

US Earnings (quarterly report recap) at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 2:48:17 PM

Everyone betting MSFT will do very well. PC ratio at 30 strike is .20, that's 5 times more calls than puts.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:46:31 PM

US Earnings: 1Q Results Up 9.9% Vs 2006, Up 7% Vs Views

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 2:45:47 PM

ES is the only market that has not broken its overnight range. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:45:05 PM

DJ- Exxon Mobil Plans To Transfer La Ceiba To PdVSA Later This Week

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:41:23 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) alert! 401.57 +0.36% ... set to challenge 03/21/07 relative high.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 2:39:35 PM

Too funny but the TICKS just hit +1000. What the heck!

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 2:39:32 PM

SPX looks weaker to me. It has what looks more like ascending wedges forming rather than parallel up-channels (with the bearish divergences supporting the ascending wedges). Within the wave structure there could be a way to count the rally as complete so heads up on that possibility. But to keep things in synch with the others I've depicted a pullback over the next couple of days to be followed by a final rally leg (to the 1510 target I had mentioned in last night's Wrap). Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:36:50 PM

Iraq Govt. Blasts US Congress Call For Pullout Starting Oct. 1

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 2:29:41 PM

Here are the current up-channels for the DOW. This is very bullish looking and lots needs to happen before it turns bearish. Link

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 2:23:35 PM

BTW, a similarly drawn parallel up-channel for the DOW is where price has been stalling since yesterday, and is pressed up against it again right now.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 2:40:27 PM

Bulls are going for it again. You'd think their bellies were full by now. A parallel up-channel for NDX shows upside potential here to about 1905. You can see the steepening uptrend lines during its recent rally--it's going parabolic and that's not healthy. Just don't get in the way of it when momentum gets going like this. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:20:22 PM

YM 13,164 ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:20:04 PM

Correction! YM stop should be 13,135 (not 45)

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:18:16 PM

YM long entry alert here at 13,159 , stop 13,145, target 13,230

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:16:34 PM

SPX 1,495.18 -0.01% ... WEEKLY R1 too.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:15:36 PM

VIX.X alert! 12.91 -2.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:09:15 PM

Grains - Kansas To Seek Ag Disaster Designation For Freeze-Hit Areas

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:08:11 PM

Countrywide Financial (CFC) $38.73 +2.73% ... sticks its head above 4/19/07 relative high.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 2:06:34 PM

If you are an oil trader, watch the Iran news. This is a very news driven commodity.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:06:28 PM

US Refinery issues still have the NEGATIVE impact on oil commodities trade. Unleaded and refined products loving it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:04:10 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $50.72 -1.16% ... after a stop run on shorts to $51.78, session lows now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:01:54 PM

OSTK $18.67 +5.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 2:01:30 PM

Overstock.com forms alliance with Carfax

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:54:52 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $51.13 -0.37% ... slips back below "neckline trend"

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:53:22 PM

Wasn't MTH that "Morning Star" fundamental bullish pick from a couple of week's ago?

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:51:47 PM

Meritage Homes (MTH) $36.40 +11.79% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:51:16 PM

Meritage Homes Shares Up 12% After Better-Than-Expected 1Q

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:47:20 PM

BOC's Dodge Says C$ Gain Is "Type 1" Movement

DJ (partial) - The Canadian dollar's gains this year have been driven by higher commodity prices and domestic economic factors, central bank governor David Dodge said Thursday.

He noted that the currency has appreciated since the Bank of Canada released an update in January to its semiannual Monetary Policy Report.

"That broad movement has been broadly in line with changes in the domestic economy and changes in global commodity prices," Dodge said at a press conference after the Bank released its latest Monetary Policy Report.

"So that would be more or less consistent with the Type One," movement, he added.

Under a scenario the central bank published in 2005, a Type 1 classification is where the currency movement is driven by demand for goods and services, and wouldn't require policy action.

The Bank of Canada isn't underplaying inflationary risks, Dodge said.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:43:37 PM

Treasury's Steel: No Need For New Legislation On Sarbox

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:27:37 PM

Exxon Mobil: Timing On Handover Of La Ceiba Field Unclear (Update to Venezuela)

DJ- Despite the recent signature of an agreement to hand over operatorship of its heavy oil project in Venezuela by May 1, Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) still hasn't determined when it will cede control of the La Ceiba field in the western part of the country, company executives said Thursday. "La Ceiba is going to be operated by PdVSA eventually," said Investor Relations Vice President Henry Hubble, referring to the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, in a conference call with reporters. "It's difficult to determine when that is actually going to occur." However, the transfer won't occur by May 1, he said. Irving, Texas-based Exxon, the world's largest publicly traded oil company, agreed Wednesday to give up operatorship of its Cerro Negro heavy oil project to PdVSA by that date, the deadline set by the Venezuelan government for the state takeover. Discussions over compensation will continue beyond that date, executives said. Most foreign operators - including Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Total S.A. (TOT) - also agreed to cede control of their projects. ConocoPhillips (COP), which has a major stake in two heavy oil projects and an offshore field, didn't sign agreements Wednesday.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 1:25:50 PM

Jane, I'm trading the e-minis for the metals--YG and YI.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:25:20 PM

DJ- Marathan: Fire Was 'Small;' No Comment On Output Impact

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 1:25:15 PM

Senate passes war-spending bill 51-46, with requirement that troop withdrawals from Iraq begin by October. Full story to follow shortly

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:24:36 PM

DJ- Marathon: Garyville, La, Oil Refinery Unit Tripped Off Line

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:20:53 PM

Marathon Oil (MRO) $103.67 +1.09% ... Declares 2:1 stock split, dividend increase.

Yahoo! News items Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 1:20:29 PM

Keene what did you use to short Gold and silver?

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 1:19:25 PM

Actually the bounce in the US dollar looks like a nice impulsive 5-wave move off yesterday's low. That now calls for a pullback correction and it should be followed by at least another leg higher (and just the opposite for the metals). Think I'll stick short the metals for a little longer ;-)

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:18:32 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 4/26/2007 1:18:13 PM

Radio Shack (RSH) $27.11 down $0.35

Earnings announcement this Monday. If earnings are dissapointing, we could see a collapse in the stock. Charts indicate weakness nearterm.

Daily & weekly charts... Link Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 1:15:03 PM

Notice how the US$ is setting up a sell the rally trade at the same time Gold is setting up a buy the dip.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 1:15:49 PM

This is certainly not the time to trying a long in the major equity markets but could be the perfect spot for a long in Gold, Silver or Natural Gas. You want to see all charts green (all three closed green yesterday in every timeframe) then the 60 minute turn red and the red flow into the 120 minute then to the daily (although preferably not in one day like it has in Gold). When the 60 minute turns back to green it is called buying the dip. If you are wrong your stop is very clear, when the 60 turns back red or just below the swing low that would have been created due to the 60 turning back to green. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:08:00 PM

USO $51.78 +0.89% ... set to test horizontal fib retracement on 60-minute interval reverse h/s.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:06:46 PM

MRO $103.89 +1.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:06:18 PM

CNBC reporting MRO refinery on fire. Illinois

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 1:03:05 PM

All markets are a +10 so the "Open Number" system is telling you longs only. Actually ES is under its daily open a tad. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:02:51 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 1:00:31 PM

SPX May 1,525 Calls jump to most active ... UP 2023 : Dn 6

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 12:58:42 PM

Just to offer another, and bearish, persective on oil, USO has been hugging the underside of its broken uptrend line from January. If it continues to do that until Tuesday May 1st it will then run into its downtrend line from July where the trend lines intersect at 51.90 (the downtrend line is currently near 52). At this point I'd say a rally above 52 would have me turning more bullish but until then I'm bearish USO. Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 12:47:48 PM

Question from Regan on VLO. Oh my goodness gracious a breakout of the upward channel is very good if long but, just like the rest of the market, getting a tad overdone. Depending on where you got in and what kind of trading you do, swing or longer, I would probably get out here. You could also put a stop at breakeven and see if it goes higher, which I certainly think it will but not before it makes buyers feel "the pain." It could easily retrace all the way back to the lower trendline at 64.00 because this is a mover. Actually a move back the channel's lower trendline would be very healthy for VLO bulls because it will be a good springboard from which you could take off again. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:44:14 PM

Depending on "how much" oil may have been shut-in, and for what reason, this could change the landscape.

Those long oil, we'll stay the course, trade our observations.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 12:43:26 PM

GRMN is a great company with great products but I agree with Jeff on this one--not only the H&S pattern but the a-b-c bounce off the March 5th low achieved equality at 57.20 (this morning's high was 57.24). I'd say this stock is a good short against that high--makes for a very tight stop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:38:48 PM

Not seeing anything regarding oil field shut-in on my Dow Jones feed.

Only thing I've seen mentioned is ... "Oil turns positive"

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 12:37:15 PM

With the push back up here, leaving a 3-wave pullback in its wake I'd go back to flat. It's going to chop lower if it does and I'm not interested in the long side. Flat is a good position--go study a new technical indicator or something. I'm reading John Murphy's new book "Intermarket Analysis" and it's highly recommended.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:36:42 PM

Exxon Mobil: OPEC Cuts Lowered 1Q Output By 20,000 B/D

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:33:48 PM

Tense days ahead for GRMN Link traders. Potential h/s top with ascending neckline. "right shoulder" here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:31:13 PM

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $56.43 +0.24% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:30:20 PM

TomTom: Another Victory Against Garmin's Patent Portfolio

DJ- Dutch manufacturer of navigation devices TomTom NV (38705.AE) said Thursday that it has secured another victory in its ongoing patent litigation against its competitor Garmin Ltd. (GRMN).

"Judge Barbara Crabb granted summary judgment in TomTom's favour on all of the patents that Garmin had asserted against TomTom in the US District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin," TomTom said.

"After Judge Crabb gave summary judgment in TomTom's favour on December 22, 2006, Garmin asked the court to re-open the case to address additional patent claims. The court decided on 25th April 2007 to re-open the case and then held that each of Garmin's additional claims were either invalid because of prior art or not infringed by TomTom," the company said.

Accordingly, TomTom said that it has been "completely vindicated with respect to the Garmin patents in the Wisconsin case."

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:28:31 PM

BOC Dodge Says He Needs A Rest, Will Stay Until Term Ends

DJ- Canadian central bank governor David Dodge Thursday said he will stay until the end of his term but will leave after that because he needs a rest.

"I turn 65 next year, it seemed like a good time to take a bit of a rest after 40 years of working without a break," Dodge told reporters in his first remarks on the matter after a surprise announcement late Wednesday that he won't seek a second term.

Dodge said he made the decision with his wife and he will take six or seven months to figure out what he wants to do next. He said he will stay as governor of the Bank of Canada until his term ends Jan. 31, 2008

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 12:22:24 PM

Yes Jane, and silver too (14.12). Despite some who say shorting the metals is fool's gold (pardon the pun), I'm finding it to have been a whorthwhile effort this morning :-)

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 12:19:37 PM

Keene did you get that Gold top?

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 12:19:12 PM

The last high at on April 20th, 23rd was met with a lower MACD and I suggested bailing on longs or plugging you nose for the dive. I did not expect it to be this severe however,

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:18:17 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $51.54 +0.42% ... trades extension of 60-minute interval chart's "neckline"

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 12:17:16 PM

The home builders are getting a nice bounce today. The index rallied up and tagged the 200-dma at 660.65 (high so far is 661.79) and if this gets a little pullback and another push higher (which is supported in the short term wave count for the move up from Tuesday morning) then the 38% retracement at 669.65 would be a logical target. Link

Note that this is also the level of the previous 4th wave in its decline, a normal retracement point in EW patterns. Once this rally is finished it should complete the a-b-c correction to the Feb-Mar decline and the 3rd wave down should kick into gear.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:16:37 PM

CBOE Most Active Options at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 12:18:11 PM

This is a perfect example of what can happen when a market gets overdone. When the sellers take over the buyers head for the door. With the way it is looking now it could retrace past the 50EMA and tag the 50% retracement at 665.00. Not fun if you are long Gold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:12:49 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $51.26 -0.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:12:45 PM

CNBC ... didn't hear detail, but news of some oil field shut-in (Norway?).

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 12:04:28 PM

Dow Components ... yesterday I showed a screen capture of the INDU components as it/they achieved an important psychological level of 13,000.

Remember! The INDU is a PRICE weighted index.

Today's PRICE sort Link the impact MMM has today in "top 10"

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 11:59:40 AM

After getting the bounce and now a move lower, the best place for a stop on your short play is now two ticks above that bounce high. That way if this pullback turns into just a 3-wave correction you can get out for near breakeven or with latte money.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 11:57:45 AM

BTW that last swing low was a higher low and supported by a MACD higher low. The odds are in favor of a long here.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 11:56:59 AM

I really like this chart of natural gas for a long and now you have a vehicle to trade this longer term with UNG. Stop is very clear under the confluence of the 100 and 200 EMA. Nice setup. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 11:51:54 AM

MSFT $29.19 +0.68% ... of the 30 Dow components, MSFT is #28 weighting.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 11:43:25 AM

But price is price and YM 13163 is a clear cut obstacle, at least maybe until MSFT. I expect a retest of DOW 13K at some point.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 11:42:23 AM

BIG signal from BPOIL yesterday. Hasn't seen a 62% reading since multiple 60% in August of last year, then early December of last year.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 11:41:16 AM

The bid under the market is mostly due to the Yen drop since yesterday. This is why there is no logic or boundaries. Hedge funds are chasing the carry trade for as long as they can get away with it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 11:40:50 AM

Sector Status Changes ... According to Dorsey/Wright ... COMPuters reversed back up from "bull correction" to "bull confirmed" with yesterday's action.

OIL achieved "bull confirmed" after signaling "bull alert"

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 11:38:36 AM

BOJ will be a major Yen supporter soon. USD/JPY 120 would be when the cavalry comes in.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 11:35:22 AM

As this was a quick test to see if NDX was topping, and with the pullback already a little larger than the preceding ones this morning, I'd now pull my stop down to two ticks to a new high (3 for YM). This should continue lower from here now and if there are more highs to be had then get out of the way.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 11:34:57 AM

While the NYSE NH/NL ratios are utilized to assess bullish/bearish leadership, I continue to monitor breadth as depicted by the NYSE Summation Ratio ($NYSI) which is at a very important level and threatens a reversing higher "buy signal" on 20-point box Link

Is the bullish leadership there? I can't say (quantifiably) for certain that it is.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 11:33:43 AM

These are telling you the bears are in control but yet there is a bid under the market that is hard to ignore. This market just continues to amaze me. Unfortunately though we will have to pay the price and when we transition to a bear market it will be painful. But until then "make hay while the sun shines" and it looks like we have more sunny days ahead. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 11:30:00 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

It would be an assumption on my part that the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio is trying to reverse up into column of X with 94.00% measure.

Closing Internals from 04/13/07 Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 11:25:51 AM

The fall of the Yen is making shorts difficult, but since it is due to rising rates and a stronger dollar, it's now a double edge sword.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 11:23:45 AM

I'm back. NDX looks to be putting in a small ending pattern here. I think it's a good spot to try shorting NQ, normal 5-pt stop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 11:23:55 AM

DJUSHB 658.74 +3.49% ... set to test 200-day SMA (660.64)

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 11:22:44 AM

NVR (AMEX:NVR) $836.96 +4.98% ... probes 80.9% retracement of 07/29/05 all-time high close to 07/18/05 relative low close.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/26/2007 11:22:27 AM

YM high of 13163 is 100% projection March, exactly.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 11:21:52 AM

ES is not able to break the resistance from yesterday's high. I am very surprised it was even able to retest it and a break would leave me with my mouth wide open. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 11:03:37 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 10:50:58 AM

Quick chart and then I'll be back--NDX, which is relatively stronger today (and yesterday), shows resistance dead ahead (like here): Link

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 10:47:36 AM

If the market is able to push to a new high today watch for negative divergences against yesterday afternoon's highs as it could be the 5th wave of the move up from Tuesday morning. That would set up at least a larger pullback and therefore would be a good time to test the short side. SPX 1500 makes for a decent upside target based on the trend line along the highs since the April 17th high.

I'll be back in about 30 minutes.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 10:36:06 AM

Correction to the GOOG key level for the upside--it should read 495 instead of 485. Here's the 120-min chart showing price action and the key levels to watch. Hopefully this stock will provide some clues as we move forward since bullishness (or fear) will show itself in stocks like GOOG. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 10:35:31 AM

EIA: Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table at this Link

Build of 18 Bcf

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 10:34:19 AM

NEM Link really looks to be struggling with cost issues. Revenue up on prices, but bottom line weak on costs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 10:32:20 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link ... another long list of earnings reports today. NDE, VLO, XOM, NEM just a few.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 10:29:01 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $116.78 +0.18% ... probes 200-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 10:24:28 AM

Forex Global Econ Calendar (today) Link

US Unemployment 321K vs. forecast of 325K

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 10:22:54 AM

GOOG is in the middle of two key levels for its EW pattern--bullish above 485, bearish below 462. We need price to lead the way here. It's presently bouncing off its short term uptrend line from the April 2nd low, currently near 477.50, and then another uptrend line from March 16th is a little lower near 471. Link

The longer term uptrend line from August 2004, as shown on the daily chart, is currently near 464 which makes the 462 level doubly important for the bulls to hold. The short term price pattern is just choppy enough to make forecasting its next direction a coin toss. Nothing to trade here until this gets resolved.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 10:22:14 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.34 -1.37% ...

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 10:19:26 AM

AD line is a bearish -850 and AD volume making new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 10:02:08 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 10:02:05 AM

The decline in CME is starting to look a little more bearish than just a pullback within a developing sideways consolidation. It may be a little early to make that call since it's still entirely possible for it to start another leg back up. If it does bounce a little from here I'd watch for resistance at its broken uptrend line from Feb 27, currently near 537. Link

If CME were to bounce and then drop as depicted in dark red (or just drop straight from here without any additional bounce) then it will create an impulsive 5-wave move down from its April 16 high. It would then be due a corrective bounce perhaps back up to the 540-545 area and then a sharp drop from there.

Any recovery back above its broken uptrend line would be at least short term bullish and the drop below the uptrend line will have been a head fake break down (under-throw), the same as it did with the over-throw of its downtrend line in mid April.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 9:57:51 AM

Level 3 Comm. (LVLT) $5.76 -6.63% ... #3 most active.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $-0.22 on Revenue of $1.04B

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 9:48:50 AM

Halliburton (HAL) $31.85 +0.98% ...

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $0.52 on Revenue of $4.88B

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 9:46:33 AM

Beazer Homes (BZH) $34.33 +2.44% ...

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $-0.14 on Revenue of $684.04M.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 9:43:14 AM

After breaking its uptrend line from April 2nd gold (June contract) bounced back for a test and then dropped sharply lower. So far so good for a gold bear. The key level to break is 674 which would leave the bounce from March 5th confirmed as a 3-wave bounce. A break of 660 is needed to confirm the high is in. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 9:38:40 AM

Ford Motor (F) $8.31 +5.45% ...

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $-0.60 on Revenue of $34.45B

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 9:33:04 AM

It's just a start but the US dollar looks like it might finally be ready to start its rally. That would likely be bearish for the metals. I'm liking my shorts in gold and silver a little better this morning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 9:29:05 AM

IndyMac Bancorp (NDE) $30.97 ... $31.50 pre-market.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $0.67 on Revenue of $285.69M

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 9:26:08 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $44.23 ... flat/mixed pre-market.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus $0.24 on Revenue of $1.11B

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 9:26:04 AM

Like I stated yesterday, SPX needs to retrace at least to 1460 before any move upward can be sustained. This is getting way too overdone Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 9:21:52 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $70.32 ... $71.85 pre-market.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $1.42 on Revenue of $22.96B.

Repurchase program, dividend.

Keene Little : 4/26/2007 9:18:31 AM

Everyone knows we're stretched big time to the upside here and of course the longer it goes the bigger the snapback. But if we're truly in a blow-off top then throw away your technical indicators for now since parabolic moves violate all sense of overbought. We need to see what sets up from here and for obvious reasons chasing it higher is risky business. This move up is either ending very soon (such as SPX 1500 at the top of its wedge pattern) or as I mentioned in last night's Wrap we'll get a relatively shallow choppy pullback into next week and then a final high for the move.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 9:17:17 AM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) $79.92 ... $80.42 pre-market.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $1.52 on Revenue of $100B

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 9:15:19 AM

Make sure you take note of the overnight highs. After a move like yesterday there is a very good chance these highs will be resistance today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/26/2007 9:13:34 AM

3M (MMM) $76.97 ... $80.70 pre-market.

Earned $1.28 (ex-items) on Revenue of $5.94B

Consensus was $1.14 on Revenue of $5.74B

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 9:13:34 AM

Here is another market I like to trade, Natural Gas. This is a bullish chart and I think yearly highs will break when it is retested. This one is a little difficult to trade with the futures because of the leverage but there is a NG ETF now called UNG. This ETF is just like GLD and USO for Gold and Oil. Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 9:10:13 AM

YOu have to love the MACD when it talks to you like this.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 9:09:21 AM

Also notice MACD's lower high telling you that last retest of the yearly top was not going to break.

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 9:07:45 AM

I suspect Gold will retrace at least back to its 50EMA which just happens to be its 38.20 Fib retracement level. Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 9:06:28 AM

Gold has been holding on lately even though it was facing some major resistance on the daily charts but it looks like it is giving up for now. A strong US$ and weak Oil is just too much for it and it is taking a very much needed breather. Link

Jane Fox : 4/26/2007 9:00:35 AM

Looks like during the overnight trading the markets were able to hold on to their gains from yesterday. This is pretty impressive. Link

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