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Keene Little : 4/29/2007 11:24:58 PM

I showed these 60-min charts in the weekend Wrap so here they are for those who don't get that newsletter:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

This 120-min chart on the COMP shows the wave count within its bearish ascending wedge off its March 14th low. I've said before that it's always a challenge firguring out which is the last leg up in these patterns but this one actually works very well for calling a top at Friday's high. Link

It takes a break below 2509, the low on April 24th, and preferably below the low labeled as wave-4 on April 19th (2490), in order to tell us something a lot more bearish is happening but heads up on this one since the pattern counts out well as complete at this point.

It's going to be important to watch the relative strength of the techs as compared to the S&P 500 since technology stocks are one of the last sectors to do well at the end of a bull market. If this sector breaks down relative to SPX, by breaking the uptrend line shown on this weekly chart, then we'll have a better clue about a potential stock market high. Link

This would mean the techs will have to start leading to the downside (top out sooner perhaps) or defensive stocks in SPX (consumer staples and service stocks) will outperform to the upside. On the flip side of this--if the COMP were to break its downtrend and start heading higher then that would be a very bullish sign for the market.

Keene Little : 4/29/2007 10:55:11 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/29/2007 9:59:59 PM

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