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Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:11:43 AM

Dow Jones Hedge Fund Strategy Benchmarks at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 1:29:46 AM

Answer to email ... The reason that Dorsey/Wright's Dow Jones Industrial Bullish % (BPDJIA) is at 96.67% bullish, and StockCharts.com's Dow Jones Industrial Average Bullish % ($BPINDU) Link is "only" at 90.00% is that StockCharts.com adjusts stock prices LOWER on a historic basis when a dividend is paid.

There are only 30 stocks in the Dow Industrials. Each stock's chart gets "one vote" and is worth 3.33% to this bullish %.

StockCharts.com shows AIG's point and figure chart Link like this, with a double bottom sell signal still associated the the chart at $68. Link

Dorsey/Wright's point and figure chart of AIG Link ,like QCharts, has not adjusted historical prices when AIG pays quarterly dividends over time.

StockCharts.com's $BPOEX and $BPSPX also slightly different look/measure than Dorsey/Wright's (BPOEX) and (BPSPX) as there are quite a few dividend paying stocks in these to markets too.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 12:21:22 AM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 12:20:01 AM

Prior 3 MONTHLY Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Pnt Qtr would represent last 3 months.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 12:13:22 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:41:02 PM

Can't remember if I posted these in early April or not.

Trading-Collar Levels and Circuit-Breaker Levels for Q2 2007 Link

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 11:33:58 PM

Are We There Yet?

That's what I'd use to label tonight's update. After Monday afternoon's trap door opened up and swallowed a bunch of bulls asleep at the feeding trough (with some very hungry bears waiting below) it looks like we should get some stair-stepping lower before at least a temporary bottom is put in. So I wouldn't buy the dip quite yet.

The larger pattern is not nearly clear enough to help determine if today was the start of something more bearish or just a pullback. The big warning in my book is for a major high to be made this week. There are Fib ratio dates, 40-week cycle, Bradley Model and Gann all pointing to this week as potentially very important, so the natural question in my mind was whether Monday's high for the DOW was it.

Speaking of Gann, its chart shows SPX 1498 being a very important number (5 square outs from the October 2002 low of 768). That was hit on Thursday on the nose and nearly tagged again on Friday and Monday (so it's clearly resistance). So there are a lot of pieces that fit the puzzle to tell us we should be looking for a major high this week. Whether that's Monday's high or another minor new high later in the week (or next week), we will need further price action but be aware that the risk is for a sudden wash out to start.

Roadmap updates:

The DOW's pattern suggests we should look for just a pullback, even though it could go as deep as the 12800 area. It is the only one that has stayed in parallel up-channel from the March 14th low (the others are arguably in more bearish ascending wedges). Therefore a pullback to the bottom of the channel, currently near 12800, could be a 4th wave correction and would need a 5th wave up, very likely well into next week. Link

SPX could comfortably be counted as complete at last Thursday's 1498.02 high in what looks like an ascending wedge (and therefore each of the 5 waves up is a 3-wave move). If it breaks below the uptrend line from March 14th, currently just below 1480 then things could turn nasty. But if it too needs a 4th wave pullback before giving us a final 5th wave up then I'll watch for support at the dotted uptrend line (parallel to the line along the highs--wave-1 to wave-3). Link

NDX has a pattern more like the DOW with the parallel up-channel. A 4th wave pullback should find support above 1840 whereas a break of its uptrend line from March 14th, confirmed by a break below 1820, would be an indication that we've seen the high in the rally. Link

The RUT's pattern has looked like an ascending wedge in motion ever since the early part of the rally of the March low. Of all the indices this one tells me to get short now and hold on for dear life. It has broken down from its wedge and took out the key level at 816. These wedges get retraced a lot faster than it takes to build them and that says the RUT is headed below 760 potentially by the end of next week (maybe faster). Link

If that happens then getting a 4th and a 5th wave higher in the other indices would not be high on my list of expectations. But since the others show the possibility for just a pullback, then it's just as possible the RUT has another bounce left to go. In that case I would watch a Fib projection at 810 for possible support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:26:05 PM

CBOT's YM (June/September'07) 04/30/07 closing and settle at this Link

September pretty thin right now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:14:26 PM

NASDAQ Summation Index ($NASI) 20-point box chart Link ... still monitoring.

Still figure, based on past observation, that $NASI would be "leader of weakness" relative to $NYSI.

$NASI measuring a/d of NASDAQ Comp. and slips to 104.78. Needs a measure of 80.00 for a 3-box reversal back lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:10:06 PM

NYSE Summation Index ($NYSI) 20-point box Link .... still monitoring, but some focus in tonight's wrap on NH/NL breadth. The $NYSI is measuring advance/decline.

Hasn't been able to get the "buy signal" at 920.00. Slips to 869.26. Needs 840.00 for a 3-box reversal back lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:04:33 PM

Check those Bullish Vertical counts! Is there enough potential longer-term reward given the assessment of risk?

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:00:21 PM

When Jane posted today's "Buying Climax" article from MarketWatch, the name Mike Burke rang a bell, but I couldn't place it.

Then I reviewed Tom Dorsey's book Point and Figure Charting.

I knew I'd read some of his teachings in the past.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 10:55:06 PM

Mike Burke's "The Broadening Top" ... Point and Figure note Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 10:52:58 PM

Mike Burke's "The Bull Trap" ... Point and Figure notes Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 10:49:06 PM

Mike Burke's "The Buying Climax" ... Point and Figure notes Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/30/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 8:37:00 PM

1,000,000 shares blocked at $38.18 on VZ in tonight's extended at $38.18.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 8:23:36 PM

NYSE, NSDQ Comp, SPX and RUT NH/NL data at this Link

See Jane's 12:34:25 post.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 8:04:02 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 5:44:56 PM

S&P To Add Matrix Service To SmallCap 600 Tuesday ... MTRX $24.40 +0.37% Link ... a name familliar to long-time MM subscribers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 5:38:59 PM

Columbia's Central Bank Hikes Key Interest Rate to 8.5% From 8.25%

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 5:16:05 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Note: Today's 101 NL at the NASDAQ are most since 03/14/07's 182.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 4:54:13 PM

Should have shorted MSFT. Vista is a disaster.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 4:53:42 PM

I had Dell send me an XP disk, VISTA is too buggy. Stay away from it until they get a new service pack.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 4:06:59 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 3:56:47 PM

Closed and flat

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 3:56:16 PM

Valero (VLO) $70.37 -1.17% Link .... Probes WEEKLY Pivot here.

WEEKLY's are $64.07, $67.64, Piv= $70.37, $73.94, $76.67.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 3:47:50 PM

Target on the ZPY-QN is $68.05 in the underlying of VLO.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 3:44:05 PM

June Unleaded (rb07m) settled down $0.0004, or -0.02% at $2.2594.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 3:42:30 PM

May Unleaded (rb07k) settled $2.4405. Today's was May contract settlement.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 3:37:55 PM

Swing trade put long alert ... buy one (1) of the Valero Energy VLO May $70 Puts (ZPY-QN) at the offer of $1.45.

VLO $70.70 -0.71% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 3:22:20 PM

DOW 13K is about YM 13050. We should get another 100 points on this, but we need to make a lower low first.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 3:19:32 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 3:14:28 PM

Best guess on the patterns here, at least for the DOW and SPX, is that this leg down will be wave-c of an a-b-c pullback from last Thursday's high (little clearer pattern on that with the SPX). That would mean that after this drop we will get another and final rally leg. The techs and the small caps may have already topped though.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 3:11:24 PM

ES comes to a screeching halt at its PDLs.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 3:06:17 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:57:37 PM

And now the Yen drops so YM finds support. This is getting old.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 2:55:20 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $51.23 -1.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 2:54:44 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $112.61 -2.06% ... back to initial 03/23/07 bull entry point.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 2:50:16 PM

I did get a chunk out of this but of course bailed way to early and it is not letting me back in.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 2:49:27 PM

When the buyers disappear it is amazing how fast traders head for the exit. This is an excellent example of fear greater than greed. WE never see the market go up like this.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 2:45:12 PM

Deutsche Boerse Agrees to Buy ISE Market for $2.8B in Cash

AP Story Link

ISE $67.02 +46.58% Link ... Nearing its BVC (see this weekend's Trader's Corner)

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:44:32 PM

Jim, give her a job:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The woman accused of running a prostitution ring serving Washington's elite, whose clients included at least one U.S. government official, also appears to be something of a stock picker. The woman, Deborah Jeane Palfrey, asked a federal judge on Monday for permission to sell almost 5,000 shares of Dolby Laboratories Inc. that were in an account frozen by the government because she believed the stock had reached its high point. "I believe it's reached its peak," she told Judge Gladys Kessler. Palfrey said she bought the shares in the sound system company at about $22 per share. Dolby is at about $37 a share now which could be about a $75,000 profit before taxes.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:39:57 PM

Say goodbye.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 2:39:44 PM

TICKS -1000 Cool!!!!

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 2:39:24 PM

AD line is now getting more bearish at -590 but remember those days when the AD line is -1200 and the bulls were able to move the markets to new daily highs. But this is looking good for the bears today.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 2:34:18 PM

You don't need to look any further than these two to know who has the ball this morning. Today has been quite different from previous days. Is the tide turning? I certainly hope so, for while at least. Link

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 2:32:36 PM

The big question for the day is whether or not they'll be able to hold the DOW in the green to make it 20 out of 22 days. I think they should go for 21 days (Fib number). It's also a multiple of 7 and 7 seems to be an important number for the market. Many reversals happen around the number 7. And this week is the 7th week off the March low (on Wednesday). Wednesday, May 2nd is also the turn date identified on the 40-week cycle that I showed on the weekend Wrap ( Link ).

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 2:29:31 PM

I'm not kidding ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 2:29:03 PM

US Oil fund (USO) $51.20 -1.23% ...

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 2:25:31 PM

THis is just what the doctor ordered.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:24:06 PM

I'm sure glad I went short and just looked away with a very wide stop. Nonsense noise.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:21:54 PM

Actually, DOW 12975 or so.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 2:22:55 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $51.75 -0.17% ... did see its first 30-minute interval close above my horizontal neckline projection of $51.84.

Since identifying the potential reverse h/s pattern setup, USO had not been able to do that.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:19:59 PM

We should get a DOW move down to at least 13K any day.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:19:42 PM

BPSPX above 79. These are all bullish percentage numbers that saw highs over the past three years.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:18:08 PM

BPINDU is at 90, NDX 72.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 2:16:16 PM

NYSE, NASDAQ Comp., SPX and RUT NH/NL data Daily, 5-day Ratio and 10-day ratio table that I try to keep at this Link

Note the "lack" of NH/NL last couple of sessions.

See Jane's 12:34:25 post.

See my quick Dow 30 recaps (01:00:42) starting with IBM to 02:00:20 INTC.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:13:31 PM

I have an Intel core due 2.44 ghz, 4 lb2 cache, 2 gigs of ram and a dual DVI out NVDIA 8600 GTS with 256 MB and direct X. Can't get much better unless you go 64 bit. So I can imagine what the rest of the world is going through.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 2:13:16 PM

Marc, I like my laptop with Vista.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:11:53 PM

I know the gamers are staying away.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:11:42 PM

Bought a new pc with Vista. Fast machine, but beware if you have outlook 2003 or less. It won't even find the contacts when you try and mail. Unreal, I feel like shorting MSFT.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 2:09:53 PM

Short YM looks good to me with these repeated NQ 1900 failures, but be careful and start slow. YM 13188 is the battle.

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 2:08:22 PM

We've got the RUT in the red again today as the OEX and DOW are in the green. It sure smells defensive to me (rotating out of the small caps into the large caps). Looks a lot like distribution patterns we've seen at prior tops. That doesn't mean it can't still chug higher but recognize we're dealing with a market that's preparing for a sell off.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 2:07:11 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Automakers are scheduled to report U.S. sales for April on Tuesday with Ford Motor Co. expected to lead what some are calling one of the worst months for the auto industry in years.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 2:00:20 PM

Intel (INTC) $21.72 -0.68% ... Needs a trade above $22.50 (11/17/06) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:59:01 PM

Pfizer (PFE) $26.56 -0.18% ... Needs a trade above $28.60 (10/02/06) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:57:44 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $30.07 -0.16% ... Needs a trade above $31.48 (01/25/07) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:56:37 PM

General Motors (GM) $32.04 +1.52% ... Needs a trade above $37.24 (02/13/07) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:55:23 PM

Disney (DIS) $35.04 +0.17% ... Needs a trade above $36.09 (02/08/07) for a new 52-weeker.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 1:54:23 PM

Problem I am seeing with the Gold long is there is no clear spot to put your stop if you are wrong.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:54:15 PM

Alcoa (AA) $35.97 -0.05% ... Needs a trade above $36.96 (05/11/06) for a new 52-weeker. Last week's high was $36.50.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:52:20 PM

General Electric (GE) $37.03 +0.51% ... Needs a trade above $38.49 (12/20/06) for a new 52-weeker.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 1:51:50 PM

I think Gold is setting up for a move higher and may be setting up for a daytrade long. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:50:53 PM

Verizon (VZ) $38.47 +1.53% ... Needs a trade above $38.95 (10/30/06) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:49:31 PM

Home Depot (HD) $38.35 -0.31% ... Needs a trade above $42.01 (02/12/07) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:47:34 PM

USD/JPY Daily Pivot right here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:46:53 PM

Forex Currency with USD/JPY bid 119.406 Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:44:58 PM

USD/JPY ... Weekly Pivot is 119.19.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:43:43 PM

AT&T (T) $38.90 +0.67% ... Made a 52-week high ($40.14) last week. Closed down for the week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:42:27 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $42.45 +0.37% ... Needs a trade above $43.72 (01/12/07) for a new 52-weeker.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 1:41:43 PM

The DOW is up 5% for the year, if I'm not mistaken.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:41:04 PM

Wal Mart (WMT) $48.50 +0.33% ... Needs a trade above $52.15 (10/23/06) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:39:37 PM

McDonalds (MCD) $48.45 -1.02% ... Needs a trade above $49.70 (04/20/07) which is recent for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:38:06 PM

Du Pont (DD) $49.55 -0.28% ... Needs a trade above $53.67 (02/26/07) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:36:28 PM

Testing, always testing. Look for SIMILARITY, or DIVERGENCE.

On CTA test I'm sure.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:35:35 PM

Not sure Keene ... will go back and check mid-September commentary.

Double ;)

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:34:32 PM

Merck (MRK) $51.43 -0.82% ... Made a new 52-weeker last week. Finished up for the week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:33:44 PM

Coca Cola (KO) $52.25 +0.36% ... Made a new 52-weeker last week. Finished down (by 3 cents) last week.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 1:33:33 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their previous day ranges. Link

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 1:33:22 PM

So Jeff, what you're saying with all those stocks that are close to making new 52-week highs is that we have a great double-top setup for the bears (wink)?

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:31:53 PM

JP Morgan (JPM) $52.86 +0.57% ... Made a new 52-weeker last week. Finished up (by a penny) last week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:30:30 PM

Citigroup (C) $54.25 +1.64% ... Needs a trade above $57.00 (12/28/06) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:29:09 PM

Honeywell (HON) $54.46 -0.78% ... Made a new 52-weeker last week. Finished up for the week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:27:18 PM

American Express (AXP) $61.40 -1.19% ... Traded a 52-week high last week. Finished up for the week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:25:53 PM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $64.00 -0.26% ... Needs a trade above $69.41 (10/23/06) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:24:03 PM

Procter & Gamble (PG) $64.55 +2.46% ... today's bar chart has the look of a 52-weeker in the making.

Needs a trade above $66.30 (01/19/07) for a new 52-weeker.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 1:23:49 PM

A Yen downtick and they go bananas. This is getting a little absurd, but it looks like they want YM R1

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:22:20 PM

United Tech (UTX) $67.39 -0.44% ... needs a trade above $69.49 (2/16/07) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:21:15 PM

Altria (MO) $69.49 -0.17% ... needs a trade above $71.10 (04/09/07) which was recent for a 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:19:48 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $70.29 +0.21% ... needs a trade above $72.97 (12/18/06) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:18:46 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $73.39 -0.48% ... needs a trade above $82.03 (05/10/06) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:16:26 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 1:13:53 PM

Friday's trading volume was light and so far today is coming in a little lighter than this time on Friday. It looks like there's just enough buying to keep the bears away but nothing much. It's the reason we're seeing a choppy move higher with bearish divergences. This is probably a distribution day and they're holding the averages up to disguise the fact. The a-d lines are negative so there's more selling than buying in most of the stocks, just like on Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:07:25 PM

01:05 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:04:55 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $80.64 +0.34% ... made a 52-week high last week. Closed up for the week.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 1:04:03 PM

Strangely enough, the one thing bears should worry about is VXN, which is not really saying sell as much as the VIX. Kind of lodpsided since NQ is down more than YM and ES.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:04:06 PM

3M (MMM) $83.19 +2.01% ... Need a trade above $88.35 (05/08/06) for a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:02:05 PM

Boeing (BA) $93.03 -1.07% ... made a 52-week high last week. Closed up for the week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 1:00:42 PM

IBM $102.80 +1.61% ... made a 52-week high last week. Closed up for the week.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 1:00:25 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 12:57:45 PM

USD/JPY is comnfirming 119.50 resistance and the Yen is bidding again. YM is a short below 13188.

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 12:36:24 PM

This was the setup for SPX as of Friday's close and so far it has managed to find support at its uptrend line from April 12th (it's doing the same thing the DOW did all day Friday--creep up that trend line). It's now pushing higher again after its last test. Link

The choppy price pattern to the upside means we'll get a faster break to the downside and then it'll be a matter of figuring out if it will be the conclusion of the 4th wave correction (dark green) or the start of the next leg down (dark red). The longer it chops higher (as per the light green) the more bearish it becomes since it could finish the whole rally from the March low sooner rather than later.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 12:34:25 PM

Here is an interesting article and I hope it is true. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 12:22:59 PM

NQ below 1900 is bearish, no matter how you slice it. But try telling that to the low volume YM traders.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 12:22:30 PM

Here is what the jtHMA spreadsheet looks like now. Link

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 12:18:31 PM

Marc I so much agree, a slow move up with manageable retracements is much much easier on everyone's accounts and nerves.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 12:17:25 PM

This was how the jtHMA SS looked ay to 9:30 this morning. The red 60 minute has flowed into the 120 minute but not yet to the daily. Unless its larger cap brethren get a tad more bearish it may not and this may just turn out to be the dip to buy. I wouldn't because of how much the markets have rallied in the last few weeks but I will keep an eye on it.

DOW has not turned bearish even on the 60 yet.

S&P's 60 minute has turned red but that doesn't mean much until the 120 and then the daily turn red. I did get long when the last time the 120/60 minute turned red and did not wait for the daily but this is getting a lot more dangerous to getting into new long positions.

NAZ as strong as the DOW.

Mid Cap and Wilshire 5000 have the same story as the S&P

Gold and Silver are still in that perfect spot for a "buy the dip."

Oil's monthly as still not turned back green and that is still a bother to me.

US$ is about a bearish as you can get.

Natural Gas's monthly has just turned green and so did its daily so this may be a very good spot to position yourself long in this market. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 12:16:22 PM

Jane, all it means is that the selling will be hard and nasty when it comes and difficult to get in.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 12:15:26 PM

It's all bout the Yen, which is now in a trading range. I am hoping for NQ to get down to 1872/1875 early this week to set up the next rally, but if they keep this incessant chop upwards, I will actually break something.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 12:14:35 PM

Does this market not realize one of the rules of this game is retracement. I will not even think of getting long here but I get thousands are. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 12:13:08 PM

Yen drop, but look for USD/JPY 119.50 resistance. This market is a nightmare to short, but notice that we have basically gone nowhere for three days, especially NQ and ES.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 12:12:37 PM

I was long and that darn dip in the AD Volume and supporting climb in the VIX got me. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 12:09:32 PM

Forex Global Economic Calendar (today)- Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 12:02:53 PM

RUT, SOX, SMH, XLF, HGX all down. Not good, we are just holding due to EOM noise, but the Yen has a bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/30/2007 12:01:15 PM

Techs are flashing warning signs. My guess is we topped on YM if we can't hold 13163 on the next drop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:48:31 AM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $42.37 +0.18% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:46:42 AM

CompUSA First Retailer to Offer HP's English-Spanish PC

DJ (partial) - In an effort to provide Spanish-speaking consumers and small businesses with the latest technology, CompUSA today announced it is the first retailer to offer a new English-Spanish computer from HP. This unique PC, the HP Pavilion a1726x PC, enables consumers to select the English or Spanish language to run Microsoft Windows Vista(TM) Premium operating system when first setting up and booting their computer.

The new computer addresses a growing market need for Spanish-speaking consumers and small businesses that want the convenience of purchasing an affordable computer with a Spanish language operating system from a leading U.S. consumer electronics retailer. The complete HP Pavilion a1726x desktop with Windows Vista(TM) Home Premium is available for $599.99 at CompUSA's 103 stores and online at Compusa.com.

"We are committed to providing our Spanish-speaking customers with the latest technology and are pleased HP selected CompUSA as the initial retailer to market the new HP Pavilion computer," said Gabriela Villalobos, executive vice president, sales and operations for CompUSA. "This new computer will be beneficial for the millions of Spanish-speaking consumers and small businesses in need of a PC that offers a Spanish version of the Windows Vista operating system." "The Hispanic community is one of the largest in the United States, and HP is committed to providing this growing community with ready access to technology to work, play and connect with others," said Engelina Jaspers, vice president, Corporate Marketing, HP.

According to the U.S. Census, the United States is home to more than 41 million Hispanics and more than 12 million Hispanic households. With Hispanics representing the nation's fastest growing consumer market, the release of this computer marks a key step for CompUSA and HP as they work to together to fulfill the needs of consumers and small business.

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 11:45:42 AM

I'll be back in 30.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:36:21 AM

Cummins (CMI) $93.24 -3.00% ... upgraded at Longbow to "neutral"

See this weekend's Trader's Corner.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:32:24 AM

Verizon (VZ) $38.15 +0.68% Link ... Earnings press release Link ...

Consensus was for EPS of $0.53 on Revenue of $22.49B

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 11:30:12 AM

The little consolidation we're getting here looks like it will resolve to the upside again. The slightly larger picture on the NDX suggests it's into the 4th wave correction as labeled on this 60-min chart. It could continue to chop up and down for the rest of the day which would then lead to another rally leg. I don't see anything yet to suggest trying to short the market (unless you want to just do quick scalp trades). Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:29:38 AM

Delta Exits Bankfruptcy ... AP Story Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:09:21 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 11:02:04 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 10:55:38 AM

The top of the DOW's parallel up-channel and a Fib projection at 13167 meet today so if that level gets tagged I suspect it will finish up this rally leg (very close now). What follows next (or if it'll even pull back) is the question. Link

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 10:51:55 AM

XBD is still struggling with that 253 level and its broken uptrend line. Its upside pattern is bearish so I can't excited about the long side on this market. It may get held up into end of month but I see more risk for bulls than bears right here. Just wait for some confirmation of a break down before fighting this (which means stay flat until something breaks).

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 10:46:01 AM

Dow Industrials (INDU) ... "X gets the square" at 13,150 Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 10:41:42 AM

Caterpillar (CAT) $73.87 +0.14% ... Preliminary MONTHLY Pivots for May ... $63.02, $68.42, Piv= $71.26, $76.66, $79.50.

Weekly are $70.84, $72.31, Piv= $73.20, $74.67, $75.56.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 10:29:05 AM

Dow Jones Industrials 50-point box with preliminary MONTHLY Pivot Levels for May at this Link

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 10:20:59 AM

Quite a reversal back up, including the brokers. I guess the bulls aren't quite finished yet. One thing to consider today and tomorrow is new-month money coming in. It could help to at least hold the market up.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 10:13:04 AM

COMPuter Bullish % recently reversed back up to "bull confirmed" Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 10:06:12 AM

IBM $102.00 +0.82% Link ... spread triple top buysignal here. Dorsey's Top of 10-week trading band at $104.Bullish verticl count column under construction ($95 to $102).

See this weekends Trader's Corner. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 10:01:42 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 9:55:40 AM

Brokerage stocks tend to lead the market so it will be important to watch them from here.

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 9:55:01 AM

With the help of MER, with their stock buyback news this morning (nice try), the broker index (XBD) had a quick pop up at the open but both MER and XBD have now given it all up and XBD is now in the red. Interesting where XBD stopped--a penny shy of its 253.03 Fib target for two equal legs up off the March 14 low. I think this one is done and if the wave count is correct we should be at the start of wave-3 down. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 9:49:49 AM

Ionatron (IOTN) $6.10 +19.84% Link ... "hot" early. #3 most active.

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 9:45:52 AM

SPX is testing its April 12th uptrend line now (about 1492.50)and NDX is still well above its trend line (1875).

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 9:43:04 AM

It's only small but the DOW appears to be finally breaking its uptrend line from April 12th.

Jeff Bailey : 4/30/2007 9:29:53 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 9:25:41 AM

Same story for the SPX, it needs to take a breather and a very shallow move would be back to February 21st high at 1460 and its 23.60% fib level. Link

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 9:23:01 AM

I am looking for the Russell 2000 ($RUT) to retrace back to at least its 23.80% fib level which is very near its March 26th high and its 50EMA. This rally needs to take a breather if it wants to make much more headway. Link

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 9:16:55 AM

Here is how the commodities and Bonds traded overnight. Link

Keene Little : 4/30/2007 9:10:28 AM

Equity and bond futures got some nice steady buying since the European markets opened. Whether that follows through after the cash market opens remains to be seen. As overbought as we are, and near some solid resistance levels, watch for an early push higher that fails. The drop in consumer spending is Not bullish.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 9:04:21 AM

Obviously the Consumer spending report out at 8:30 and the specter that inflation was easing was enough to bring out the buyers - again. Lately it doesn't take much to bring out the buyers does it?

The NAZ (NQ) and the DOW (YM) futures tagged their respective previous day highs (PDH) overnight, the S&P futures (ES) was able to pierce its PDH and the Russell 2000 (ER), the laggard of late, only made a new overnight high.

I always find it worthwhile to know where a markets previous day and overnight ranges were because they are obvious levels of support and resistance Link

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 8:40:54 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer spending was sluggish in March while inflation pressures eased, the Commerce Department estimated Monday.

Nominal spending rose 0.3% in March, marking the slowest pace since last October.

Real, adjusted for inflation, spending fell 0.2%, the weakest reading since September 2005. Personal incomes increased 0.7% in March for the second straight month.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected consumer spending to rise 0.5% and for incomes to rise 0.6%.

The core personal consumption expenditure price index was flat in March, bringing the year-over-year increase down to 2.1% from 2.4% in February. Economists had expected a 0.1% gain in the core PCE.

Jane Fox : 4/30/2007 8:39:34 AM

Dateline WSJ - Personal income rose at a 0.7% rate in March, while spending grew at a 0.3% rate. A key gauge of core inflation grew at a slower pace.

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