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Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 11:48:35 PM

email reply ... Yes! here's an updated chart of the USD/JPY Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 11:39:01 PM

USD/JPY alert! 119.97 gets the reversing back higher double top buy signal at 119.88.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 11:13:06 PM

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) 20-point box Link

NASDAQ Comp. ($COMPQ) 20-point box chart Link

NDX 20-point box Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 10:09:55 PM

End of day re-posts:

Today's price action is corrective enough to leave me guessing about tomorrow. It could chop higher, drop to a new low or anything in between. Be careful trying to trade this until a clearer direction is established. Ideally we should get at least a little more sideways/down price action to work off some of the overbought conditions and that's the way I'm leaning. The RUT looks more bearish than that but another new low could set a bigger correction, and who knows, maybe doing that while the large caps are putting in their final high (for some bearish non-confirms.

Roadmap updates for Wednesday (120-min charts):
DOW: Link
SPX: Link Note too that today's price action is working on that potential right shoulder: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link
CME looks like it's setting up a bounce--nice clean impulse down and now leaving a bullish divergence at the last low: Link
Not much to offer on GOOG since it's been such a choppy pattern: Link
GLD shows the same potential H&S top as I showed for SPX. It is only a potential pattern here but if the neckline at Tuesday's low (66.54) breaks then the downside objective by this pattern would be near 64.24. For the gold contract that would be equivalent to about a $25 drop from today's closing price near 676. Gold and equities have been tied at the hip lately and some very similar patterns are showing up. Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 10:02:28 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/1/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 6:06:19 PM

June Unleaded (rb07m) settled down $0.0147, or -0.65% at $2.2447.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 6:05:07 PM

June Crude Oil (cl07m) settled down $1.31, or -1.99% at $64.44.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 5:58:59 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 5:25:37 PM

I showed daily charts earlier for CME and GOOG so these 120-min charts merely look a little closer. Both have been in very choppy patterns and that continues to leave the door wide open for both stocks. These are still only setting up short term swing trades at best.
CME looks like it's setting up a bounce--nice clean impulse down and now leaving a bullish divergence at the last low. What becomes of the bounce is the bigger question. It's a long way back up to the bullish key level at 565. My preferred count is the bearish one which is looking for a 2nd wave correction to be followed by another leg down: Link

The bearish wave count for GOOG is looking for a stair-stepping lower to perhaps the 452 area before a larger upward correction. Right now it only has a corrective pullback and therefore could head immediately higher from here. Not much to offer here. Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 5:12:20 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 5:07:05 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 4:50:35 PM

One of the phrases I hate in this market is "it's different this time". More often than not that gets investors into trouble (it's usually used to justify why the market will keep rallying). But when it comes to gold it just might be different this time (as I slap myself and go eat some soap). At a time when most assett classes have been inflated we may see many fall together when it comes time to correct. Gold and equities have been tied at the hip lately and some very similar patterns are showing up.

For example, this 120-min chart of GLD shows the same potential H&S top as I showed for SPX. It is only a potential pattern here but if the neckline at this morning's low (66.54) breaks then the downside objective by this pattern would be near 64.24. For the gold contract that would be equivalent to about a $25 drop from today's closing price near 676. Link

And if gold and equities remain tied at the hip then gold could be giving us our heads up for what's next for equities.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 4:18:27 PM

Today's price action is corrective enough to leave me guessing about tomorrow. It could chop higher, drop to a new low or anything in between. Be careful trying to trade this until a clearer direction is established. Ideally we should get at least a little more sideways/down price action to work off some of the overbought conditions and that's the way I'm leaning. The RUT looks more bearish than that but another new low could set up a bigger correction, and who knows, maybe doing that while the large caps are putting in their final high (for some bearish non-confirms).

Roadmap updates for tomorrow (120-min charts):
DOW: Link
SPX: Link Note too that today's price action is working on that potential right shoulder: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 4:11:09 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 13,136.14 +0.56% Link ... close at record high!

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 4:07:24 PM

Congress Sends Measure To Bush Setting Iraq Pullout Schedule

DJ- Defying veto threats, Democratic congressional leaders Tuesday sent U.S. President George W. Bush legislation setting timetables for U.S. troop withdrawals from Iraq on the anniversary of his 2003 "Mission Accomplished" speech on the war.

"The president has put our troops in the middle of a civil war. A change of course is needed," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Bush, meeting in Florida with military commanders, said such an approach could turn Iraq into a "cauldron of chaos."

The White House said the president would veto the bill on his return to the White House and then go before television cameras at 6:10 p.m. EDT, just before the evening news shows, to make a statement.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 4:04:53 PM

Chavez: Venezuela Could Sue Oil Cos Over Drilling Practices

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 4:02:16 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link ... After a morning low of $71.78, decided to close out the CAT-HM at $9.70.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 3:56:50 PM

The DOW is up 64 heading into the close and the RUT is essentially flat. Any questions? Very defensive.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:55:38 PM

Might have been a "bad tick" to $51.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:54:58 PM

Oh my ... what action from DJ $55.00 +51.63%

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 3:54:54 PM

If you are an IB customer you can participate in the IPO through a dutch auction.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 3:54:27 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Interactive Brokers Group Inc. is picking up tailwinds from a major merger deal in its sector as the brainchild of Hungarian entrepreneur Thomas Peterffy readies its $1 billion initial public offering for later this week.

The profitable Greenwich, Conn., futures and equities market maker and trading firm nearly doubled the size of its IPO the same day International Securities Exchange set plans to be bought by Deutsche Bourse for $2.8 billion.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 3:50:08 PM

Marc, you make some valid points re: the economy, copper, etc. But I don't trade fundamentals. I trade the charts. I may develop a bias based on intermarket analysis but the bottom line is we need to trade each chart on its own merits. We've seen way too many times where something doesn't follow the "script". The charts have all the information known, or guessed, currently priced in. That's why I think technical analysts have it over funnymental analysts, and why fundamentals can be predicted better from technical analysis than the other way around.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:48:58 PM

DaimlerChrysler (DCX) $81.00 +0.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:48:31 PM

Ford (F) $8.03 -0.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:48:10 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.35 +0.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:47:43 PM

Toyota Motor (TM) $121.41 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:47:07 PM

DJ- US April Domestic Auto Sales Said 12.4-12.6 Million Rate ... Consensus was 12.3 Million.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:45:26 PM

DJ- US April Total Auto Sales Said 16.3 Million Rate

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:36:37 PM

VIX.X 13.64 -4.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:36:12 PM

Bullish call exit alert ... for the remaining one (1) Caterpillar CAT Aug $65 Call (CAT-HM) at the bid of $9.70.

CAT $73.11 +0.67% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 3:36:45 PM

Keene, even if the dollar bounces, it is at its weakest in decades. Furthermore, economic strength (ISM)will help gold as inflationary pressures build. Gold is a buy on pullbacks. Follow copper.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:23:39 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 3:21:15 PM

The US dollar still hasn't done anything convincingly here, and it could still press a little lower to tag its Fib projection at 81.03, but it sure looks like it's setting up for a bigger bounce. The larger pattern suggests it will break its downtrend line from March 2006 (top of its descending wedge). That's the kind of move that will depress the prices of most commodities including oil and gold. The daily sentiment remains extremely bearish on the dollar and bullish on gold, and this is what sets up reversals. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 3:17:07 PM

Gold is hanging in there but a I will bail on my long GLD position with a close below 673.00. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 3:15:34 PM

The double top that was not confirmed by the MACD is indeed failing. Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 3:15:19 PM

USO is setting up a good trade here, just not sure which way yet. After being rejected by its downtrend line from July it is now back down testing its new uptrend line from January. A break below 49.15 would be bearish while a break above 51.90 would be bullish. Based on my expectations for the US dollar to rally and commodities to suffer, I'm currently bearish USO. But let price lead the way here and then jump aboard which ever way it goes. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:13:25 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/3 position, or 100 shares of Continental Airlines (CAL) $36.60 +0.10% here. Stop goes $35.25, target $40.50.

Play the "bear trap"

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 3:12:18 PM

The strength of copper makes me a tentative crude and gold buyer as long as 50 dma's hold on both.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 3:02:21 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:54:01 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $50.32 -1.79% ... back to "righ shoulder" and 4/24 relative low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:52:55 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $113.27 +1.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:52:30 PM

Fidelity, Berkshire Targeted over PetroChina ... Reuters (Update)- Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 2:50:51 PM

GOOG broke its uptrend line from March 16th yesterday and has dropped lower today but found support at its uptrend line from August 2004, and just above its 50-dma. Its key level for the downside wave count remains 462 and for the upside it's 485. This one has me leaning bearish from here. Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 2:43:59 PM

CME made a potentially important move today--it broke below its February low. It has since recovered but that break lower has confirmed the break of its longer term uptrend line from August 2005. Unfortunately, because of all of the corrective wave structure in this it's still not abundantly clear where it's going next. Link

It's certainly possible that the decline will just keep going but it's also just as likely that the 510 area will be support for another push back up to its downtrend line from January. As drawn with the red trend lines, it could be forming a descending triangle and in this location I would say that has a bearish interpretation. But the pullback here could be completing a more complex 4th wave correction and is now ready to rally to a new high.

Today's closing price will be important--if it closes below its 200-dma at 516.17 then that will be the first time since April 2005, although that break only lasted about a week before rallying again. From a short term perspective, CME looks ready to bounce so play this one accordingly.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 2:40:52 PM

When the buyers arrive they don't fool around do they?

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:40:50 PM

Yes ... DJ is a component of the CYC.X

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:40:08 PM

Wait a second ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:38:33 PM

Look at that move at 12:00 PM EDT

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:38:08 PM

Morgan Stanley Cyclical (CYC.X) 1,019.11 +1.85% ... looks to have bears waking up a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:37:21 PM

All majors now in the green.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 2:23:28 PM

If today is going to be an a-b-c bounce to correct yesterday's decline, two equal legs up off this morning's low is at SPX 1485 on the nose. Let's see what happens if that level gets tagged. If it is just a correction it should stop there and start back down again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:16:33 PM

Intl. Business Machines (IBM) $102.68 +0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:15:48 PM

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) after closing at a 52-week high on Friday and finishing the week with a modest gain, takes a look at another 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:08:41 PM

DaimlerChrysler Sales Rise Slightly in April ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 2:00:28 PM

GM US Sales Down 2.2% in April ...

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 1:58:56 PM

Gold's chart (GLD) doesn't look bullish to me. After breaking its uptrend line from March 14th (sound familiar?) it came back up for a kiss goodbye. It should find some support at its 50-dma (the gold contract already has) and then its uptrend line from October, currently near 65.50. There were bearish divergences at recent highs, MACD is still pointed down, its downtrend line from April 23rd continues to hold this down and support hasn't been reached yet. From a bearish perspective what's not to like? I'll stick with my short with my stop just above Friday's high. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:57:41 PM

That VIX was telling me buy earlier.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:57:28 PM

NQ holds weekly S1 and off we go.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:58:48 PM

I take back what I said about Vista. I am getting used to it and actually like it. It's just not ready for gamers, that's for sure. But memory management is good and the interface really is pleasing, especially for us traders who stay on all day. But you must get horsepower. At least core due 2.33/2.44 ghz and a strong dedicated graphics card, preferably the new NVDA line o f8600 or 8800 with dual DVI out.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 1:55:36 PM

Toyota US Sales +3.7% in April

Reuters Story Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:51:54 PM

Globex currency futures is the best kept secret out there. Very good stops, much better than Forex when there is a big news event. It also trades very technically. Just remember that Currencies trade 90% of the time in a RANGE. Book profits, do not buy and hold or sell and hold. All the action in the Yen is overnight, so you must stay up late.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:50:21 PM

$12.50/tick is a very leveraged trade.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:49:45 PM

$12.50 a tick. Currently trading 0.008395.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:48:49 PM

Futures. JPY June, globex.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:48:45 PM

Heck many in this room do not even trade futures so how they buy the yen?

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:48:03 PM

Marc how would the common folk buy the yen? Most don't trade currencies so how do you buy the YEN?

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:46:57 PM

ER has not yet quite made it to its PDL at 816.30.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:46:44 PM

If you are really worried about this market, buy some Yen.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:46:29 PM

ES tags its PDL at 1488 and cannot seem to break through.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:44:48 PM

Make sure you keep your eye on PDLs and overnight lows. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:44:37 PM

I agree Jane. YG is basing between 674 and 676.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:43:29 PM

My goodness the TICKS are just going crazy. Buyers coming back in droves.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:42:50 PM

Another reason to keep a close watch on Gold are these charts. Crude is supporting bullish Gold, the US$ is supporting bullish Gold but the Swiss franc is no longer, the first time for weeks. Link

Tab Gilles : 5/1/2007 1:39:48 PM

Archer Daniels Midland ADM $36.00 -$2.60 -6.96% posted a mixed third quarter, blowing past sales estimates but falling short on the bottom line.

The Decatur, Ill., grain processor made $363 million, or 56 cents a share, for the quarter ended March 31, up from the year-ago $348 million, or 53 cents a share. Sales rose to $11.38 billion from $9.12 billion a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were looking for a 62-cent profit on sales of $9.65 billion.

"We performed well in a challenging quarter," said CEO Patricia A. Woertz. "We are particularly pleased with continued strong performance in our corn processing segment. Our results also benefited from actions to strategically align our portfolio and our outlook on future opportunities remains quite strong."

Operating profit rose 8% from a year ago, as oilseeds processing operating profit was hit by lower softseed and biodiesel processing margins. Agricultural services operating profit decreased due to lower global merchandising and handling results.

But corn processing operating profit increased due to lower operating costs and increased ethanol and sweetener selling prices partially offset by increased net corn costs. Link

Jan. '08 35 Call (WRAAG) looks interesting here at $4.20/$4.30

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:39:23 PM

Those buy programs are just too strong and overwhelm the sellers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 1:39:00 PM

Kuwaiti Oil Minister: Oil Markets Stable, No Bottlenecks Seen

DJ- The oil market is stable and no action is required, but members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are ready to meet if bottlenecks should occur, Kuwait's oil minister said Tuesday.

Speaking ahead of Wednesday's Asian ministerial energy roundtable meeting here co-hosted by Saudi Arabia and Japan, Sheikh Ali Al Jarrah Al Sabah said the market is stable.

"We don't see any bottlenecks," he said.

But OPEC ministers "will be ready to meet if any bottlenecks occur," he said. "There won't be any meetings before September."

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:36:24 PM

And another TICK +1000.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:36:09 PM

Maybe some more selling and chop ahead of the Feds next week, but overall, May could be positive as well. Again, I don't think we wil get a repeat of last year.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:34:58 PM

The real risk is to not be long this market.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:30:17 PM

But, as usual, it is risky, NQ could go as far down as 1855. Overall, I don't think this rally is over, far from it.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:29:21 PM

The VIX is actually telling me to buy this dip.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:29:18 PM

The VIX is actually telling me to buy this dip.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:28:39 PM

And the buy programs kick in TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 1:28:22 PM

Venezuela's April CPI +1.4% On Month forecast was +0.9%

DJ- Venezuela's Consumer Price Index rose 1.4% in April, exceeding both a Dow Jones Newswires forecast of 0.9% for the period and the 0.6% rise during the same month last year.

Accumulated inflation for the past 12 months reached 19.4%, up from 11.4% during the year-ago period. Robust government spending by the Hugo Chavez administration has accelerated consumer price growth over the past few years.

Accumulated inflation for the first four months of 2007 reached 4.1%, up from 2.0% in the same period of 2006.

The product segments that posted the fasted growth in April were heath care, goods and services, and food and nonalcoholic beverages, growing 3.4%, 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively.

Venezuela has attempted to curtail inflation with a fixed exchange rate and price caps on a long list of basic goods. Analysts say this will not resolve chronic double-digit inflation rates in the country. Many of them expect inflation to surpass 20% this year.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 1:25:50 PM

Venezuela's April CPI +19.4% On Yr, Vs +11.4% Yr-Before Period

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:23:23 PM

AD volume making new daily lows and I think the markets will follow.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 1:19:22 PM

If the RUT doesn't find support here and now then it's going to look even more bearish. But the wave count for the move down from last Thursday's high would look complete (5-waves) with another low and I'd look for support around the last low near 803. That should set up a 2nd wave bounce that could take it back up to the 816 area before rolling over in wave-3. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:18:52 PM

This is a sell the rallies type of day.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:16:50 PM

But the Yne fell belwo support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 1:16:43 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:16:30 PM

Of course, as soon as I say that...

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:15:35 PM


Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:15:07 PM

Well look at that, YM is the first market to make new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 1:13:59 PM

This is not the time to be long. Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 1:09:17 PM

If the current support level near 1857 for NDX gives way then the next one down is near 1850, both by the previous low on April 24th and the bottom of it up-channel from March. If short heading down to that level I'd definitely take some profits off the table at that point and think about trying a long play to see what happens from there. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/1/2007 1:07:29 PM

I don't think the bears are going to get much more today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 1:04:11 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 1:02:11 PM

The DOW looks like it could work its way down to support around 13K. It's the mid line of its up-channel from the March low and round number support. It could literally go either way (or let's not forget sideways) from there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 12:55:58 PM


DJ- Shares jump 20% after The New York Post reports Microsoft and ad giant WPP are both considering buying the Internet ad firm. Microsoft could pay $1 billion, nearly double 24/7's valuation as of yesterday.

TFSM $12.00 +20.70% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 12:52:55 PM


DJ- Justice Department and EPA fines Total for violating Clean Air Act at its Port Arthur, Texas refinery and requires $37 million upgrade to its facilities. Agreement is subject to court approval.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 12:47:41 PM

Notice Gold's daily jtHMA has not turned green. A conservative trader would have waited for the daily to turn green and confirm the weekly and monthly. I jumped in when the 60 turned green because I am bullish on gold and there was a very clear stop on the charts.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 12:40:18 PM

$RUT, the red 60 minute has flowed into the 120 minute and now into the daily. Later I will be taking a look at the daily charts and see if they support a "buy the dip."

DOW has turned red on the 60 and the 120 now but it has not yet flowed into the daily chart. I will also take a look at the DOW daily chart and show you it still has a long ways to go before we can call this a retracement.

S&P's 60 minute turned red and has now flowed into the 120 chart but not the daily so far. This market lost a little more yesterday than the DOW but still has a long ways to go to call this a healthy retracement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 12:30:50 PM

Ford Motor April Sales ... Press Release Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 12:30:12 PM

SPX is still hugging its uptrend line from March 14th. After breaking its 10-dma at 1480.73 this morning SPX is also attempting to hold above it on this bounce. At this point all we have is a doji candlestick on the daily chart which if left that way simply means indecision by the market here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 12:18:42 PM

BIIIG volume this morning in the QQQQ. I'm showing 50.3 million traded in first hour.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 12:15:58 PM

YM has now fallen back into a short only zone. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 12:14:55 PM

Ford Motor: April US Sales 228,623 Vehicles Vs. 262,722

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 12:14:49 PM

Notice how those PDLs are coming into play today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 12:14:02 PM

Ford Motor: April US Sales Down 13%

Ford (F) $8.03 -0.12% ...

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 12:13:20 PM

Even though Crude has broken its wedge I am still not sure what to do here. Notice when price made a double top at 66.70 MACD did not. That is a huge indication that double top will hold for at least a while. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 12:10:38 PM

Here is another market I am bullish on, Natural Gas. It has an ETF now, UNG. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 12:09:19 PM

I am long GLD and if GC.C closes below this very clear support I will step aside. I only wish all trades were this clear.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 12:04:55 PM

Do you think Gold has found support? Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 12:04:24 PM

Dow Jones (DJ) released for trade $56.68 +56.06%

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 11:52:08 AM

Not much happening here other than the bounce looking corrective which means we can probably expect lower or chopping up and down for the rest of the day. DOW is in the green while everyone else (except OEX, the other big large cap, is also barely in the green) is in the red. Nothing new. I'll be back in 30.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 11:47:30 AM

Here is the Open Number system. It show that if you are trading ER or ES you should stay short. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 11:42:02 AM

YM is now trading above it overnight high. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 11:39:00 AM

AD line is still under 0 but I don't think the bulls care one little bit. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 11:38:01 AM

Bears beware the bulls are back in town.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 11:37:41 AM

Look at how the internals have totally turned around now and the VIX is making new daily lows and AD volume new daily highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 11:36:24 AM

News Corp. makes unsolicited bid for Dow Jones ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 11:24:49 AM

Dow Jones (DJ) halted for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 11:23:22 AM

News Corp. Makes $60/share Offer for Dow Jones

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 11:22:42 AM

If long DJ, would take profits at bullish vertical count of $55.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 11:21:52 AM

Dow Jones Co. (DJ) $57.23 +57.72% ... surging.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 11:21:19 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 11:20:23 AM

I see the US dollar got a strong bounce off this morning's economic data. It definitely looks like it's pounding in a bottom. With the recent whipsaws in the currencies it's been a tough one to trade in the forex but I still like selling the EUR/USD pair.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 11:16:09 AM

A pattern for the bears to hope for--if SPX manages a bounce over the next day or two, that perhaps hugs the uptrend line from March 14th, it could create a right shoulder of a H&S top. The minimum price objective out of the pattern would be around 1455. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 11:07:10 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 11:01:51 AM

I should disclose that I currently hold bullish position in TOL.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 11:00:18 AM

It's a little too early to tell whether SPX will get back above its uptrend line from March 14th (1480), leaving a head fake break below it, or if it's doing a little head fake recovery before heading lower. Tricky spot right here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 10:59:41 AM

Bullish swing trade call option alert for one (1) of the Toll Brothers TOL Sep $30 Calls (TOL-IF) at the offer of $2.65.

TOL $29.47 -1.04% ... No stop for now, target $38.

Tab Gilles : 5/1/2007 10:59:03 AM

QQQQ$45.91 -0.05 Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 10:41:10 AM

Treasuries have really reversed course. Shorter dated 5-year yield ($FVX.X) up 4.2 bp at 4.558%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 10:39:02 AM

VIX.X 14.36 +0.98% ... session high 14.60 did see trade at WEEKLY R2.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 10:38:39 AM

To keep bears on their toes here, the daily chart of SPX shows what could happen if SPX finds support here and launches another rally. The daily count shows the possibility (in green) for this pullback to be the 4th wave correction in the rally from the March low. That wave count calls for one more new high before calling the rally done. Don't get complacent here. This is still a trader's market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 10:37:39 AM

Caterpillar (CAT) $72.23 -0.53% ... off session low of $71.78. Set to test WEEKLY S1 $72.31.

CAT-HM low/high has been $8.60/$9.55.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 10:33:40 AM

Venezual Seizes Last Private Oil Fields ... AP Story Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 10:31:21 AM

With the pending home sales number at -4.9% for March (bad for economy) and the ISM at 54.7, its highest reading in a year (bad for interest rate reduction expectations) the stock market is not taking well to the news. SPX has now broken support and it probably has at least another bounce and new low ahead of it before I'd look for a larger bounce. Next potential support level is the 1474 low on April 24th (and previous highs of the mid-April consolidation).

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 10:11:58 AM

Bonds tanked on the 10:00 reports and holding their lows. Apparently more concern about higher rather than lower rates ahead.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 10:05:45 AM

SPX hitting possible support now so don't be bashful about taking some money off the table. Not sure I'd want to buy this but protecting profits is different.

Jeff Bailey : 5/1/2007 10:03:01 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 10:02:19 AM

Hmm, nice stop run on that spike. Hopefully you were short anything but YM.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 10:01:20 AM

I had mentioned on the RUT chart that if this is just a 4th wave pullback in its count that it could find support around 810 and it's there so caution advised at this point. And I see a spike up now on the 10:00 reports, mostly the DOW..

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 9:59:20 AM

With the uptrend line from March 14th for SPX at 1480 I would expect a bounce from there so be ready for that if you're playing the short side. That's only 2 points lower.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 9:55:44 AM

And the RUT is selling off, again. Rotation anyone? Sure smells defensive to me.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 9:49:29 AM

The DOW is being held up more than the others, again.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 9:41:01 AM

Now lower your stop to just above that spike up at the open and see if it holds.

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 9:33:53 AM

Nice little stop run at the open. Let's see if it holds. I'm still expecting the decline to stair step lower after yesterday afternoon's spike down so if anything I'd look to short the rallies this morning, especially this kind of opening maneuver.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 9:19:58 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar traded little changed against other currencies early Tuesday, steadying after a sell-off in the previous session as investors await housing and manufacturing data for clues to the outlook for the U.S. economy.

The Institute for Supply Management index is expected to come in at 51% in April after 50.9% in March, according to a survey of economists conducted by MarketWatch. Sales of pending homes likely rose slightly to 109.4 in March from 109.3 in February, according to some economists. Both reports are due out at 10 a.m. Eastern time

Keene Little : 5/1/2007 9:18:32 AM

The US dollar hasn't been able to get off the mat yet and is still hanging around its lows but the metals took a little tumble in the early morning hours. During the bounce off last week's low silver gave a kiss goodbye to its broken uptrend line from March 5th and has been held down by its near downtrend line so that one looks more bearish than gold at the moment.

If you're short the metals I think lowering your stops to just above the last bounce high on Friday makes sense. I'm not quite sure what the downside pattern is and until the dollar can get its rally going I think it's better to lock in at least some small gains in case this turns out to be a corrective pullback in the metals.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 9:15:12 AM

If you go back to the four charts I have shown you will notice the MACD is the weakest on the $RUT so if you want to try to ride this move down the Russell 2000 is the market to use. That is IF you want to try and short this bull market.

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 9:12:55 AM

The Compx's move yesterday reached a support zone that is delineated by the 23.60% fib level. Also notice the 50EMA is sitting right at the 38.20% fib level. This chart is a lot harder to read than the other three. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 9:07:25 AM

The DOW's retracement yesterday hardly made a dent and was not anywhere near as severe as the RUT's retracement. I think a move back to at least 12800, which is not even a 38.20% retracement, is very likely. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 9:03:49 AM

SPX's retracement looks a little more "reasonable" but it still has a ways to go. I believe a retracement back to the 38.20% fib level would be very healthy for this very very long cyclical bull rally to continue. BTW a 38.20% retracement would back to ~1450. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 8:59:46 AM

I have been saying that the equity markets needed to take a healthy retracement however it be nice if it didn't happen all in one day. The swing high from March 26th (811.05) should provide some support since that is almost at the 50EMA , but Remember this market has a tendency to overdo it's moves. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 8:52:06 AM

Overnight the US$ traded within its PDR and both Gold and Crude broke their previous day lows. TBonds are consolidating at their previous day highs suggesting they are about to break higher. Link

Jane Fox : 5/1/2007 8:42:56 AM

Overnight the equity markets all made higher highs and lows but the pattern certainly looks like bear flags. I would certainly be keeping track of the overnight and previous day lows for they could be very important support today. Link

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