Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Keene Little : 5/2/2007 11:18:28 PM

Here are the 4 horseman from charts used for tonight's Wrap:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link
GLD: Link

The short term patterns for equities would look best with another minor new high tomorrow and then I'll be looking for a short play to set up. What that turns into (just a corrective pullback or something sharper to the downside) can't be known yet but it will be trying it to see what develops. If the pullback on Wednesday afternoon continues choppy lower on Thursday morning then we should get the setup for a scalp long play to finish the move up for this leg and possibly for the top.

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 11:11:18 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/2/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 6:48:23 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 6:25:12 PM

EIA's # Days Supply Crude Oil unchanged at 22.1 ... EIA Link

For those that may be new to the MM, the # Days Supply is based on the Refinery Inputs from the prior week, then the weekly stockpiles.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 6:13:02 PM

June Unleaded (rb07m) settled down $0.0121, or -0.54% at $2.2326.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 6:11:13 PM

June Crude Oil (cl07m) settled down $0.72, or -1.12% at $63.68.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 5:41:47 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 5:29:25 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 5:11:23 PM

Table of MBA data I keep at this Link

Get those kids to work (see last Friday evening's MM) Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:53:37 PM

YM 13,247 ... pinned at DAILY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:49:50 PM

Intel (INTC) $21.93 +0.59% Link ... testing trend. RISKING $3 to potentially make $10.57.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:47:44 PM

Creative Tech (CREAF) $5.91 +0.51% Link ... still some room to zero.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:46:18 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $13.63 +0.66% Link ... exceed its Bearish vertical count of $23 a long time ago.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:44:25 PM

NVIDIA's competitors Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:43:29 PM

Jane! Is your new computer set up with an NVDA chip? If so, what brand?

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:40:30 PM

Marc ... what about trashing the NVDA chip? Or buying a new one?

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:36:40 PM

Keep those product reviews coming Marc!

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:35:57 PM

In this market?

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:35:34 PM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $32.85 -1.17% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:34:22 PM

When trading a "bear trap," or even the "bull trap," POSITION size is critical. Do NOT trade more than 1/2 to begin. You're actually trading inverse the signal.

From Tom Dorsey's Point and Figure Charting ... Mike Burke had a tremendous opportunity to learn under the great A. W. Cohen, the first editor of Chartcraft.

The Bear Trap is a pattern that often suggests a stock's bottom. When a stock has had a long decline and is trading at a level where it has found a bottom in the past, we watch for the Bear Trap. It is characterized by a stock giving a Triple Bottom sell signal that only penetrates the bottom by one box. The stock then promptly reverses up into a column of X's. What this pattern suggests is the last hangers-on in the stock have finally given up. It is usually associated with some news article about the stock. Possibly the company cuts its dividend or a magazine has a negative feature article. The last investors have ridden the stock down finally giving up. They have thrown the towel in at the last minute. At this point, there is no more supply left in the stock. No one left to sell. The supply/demand relationship of the stock changes. The pendulum switches to the demand side. At this point, all it takes is a few buyers and the stock rallies up, leaving Mr./Ms. Jones, the investor, bewildered once again.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 4:17:18 PM

A reader wrote that my problems with Vista could be related to the top of the line new NVDA vidoe card I have (made for Vista...). In which case, I will also wait for those guys to udptae drivers. I still am going back to XP until they all get it together.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:15:49 PM

Continental Airlines (CAL) $37.30 +1.16% Link ... Did get the "quick" reversal to $38.00, but I just haaaad to mention a potential covered call at that level today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:13:47 PM

24/7 Real Media (TFSM) Link company profile Link

See that trade at $7.50 back in late March? That's what a "bear trap" looks like.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 4:11:10 PM

I don't know, Jeff. I just have the latest windows media player (11) that comes with Vista and it's buggy.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:08:50 PM

Marc ... is 24/7 Real Media a maker of that stuff?

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 4:07:55 PM

Hmmmm... was chatter yesterday that MSFT might go after another media-player manufacturer wasn't there?

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 4:02:25 PM

If you are going to keep Vista, my advice is to not use media player while trading.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 4:01:53 PM

You have no had a crash in the middle of trading...

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 4:00:04 PM

Jane, trash it and put in an XP disk until after the summer.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 3:59:23 PM

I am going to start using 50 point stops on YM. After all, we easily put in that on option plays, but we treat futures as if they were minimalistics paintings and freak out on a 20 point move. What nonsense. A short at weekly R1 with a 50 point stop had you ahead now. I went back in short three times at 13275 area and I finally said the heck with it, I'm holding on, especially seeing that VIX riseNQ is much better with stops, YM needs LOTS more room.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 3:56:33 PM

Marc I have had no trouble with Vista and I run my TS charts on the Vista laptop.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 3:55:08 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Previous: -20K. 8:30a.m. 1Q Preliminary Productivity. Expected: +1.0%. Previous: +1.6%.

8:30a.m. 1Q Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. Expected: +3.6%. Previous: +6.6%.

10:00a.m. April ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Index. Expected: 54.0. Previous: 52.4.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 3:51:30 PM

DIA $132.03

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 3:51:10 PM

YM long stop alert 13,244

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 3:48:57 PM

In other words, forget it and wait for service pack 2 to come out.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 3:47:59 PM

It also has a weird new font DPI scaling, which leaves many applications with blurry font if you raise the DPI, which most of us over 40 have to do. 96 DPI is too smal, I use 120.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 3:46:17 PM

I can't even watch Bloomberg TV without crashing.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 3:46:50 PM

I have had six full system crashes with Vista Ultimate, usually when running videos and media player, in the past two days. No udpates available. I had DELL ship me an XP disk. Vista is very unstable and definitely not ready for traders (or business). I know of NO one in IT departments doing the switch and I should have known better. The hell with Vista until they get a major updtae out. It is good on memory management, though.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 3:41:13 PM

The closing ghour rarely reverses course once it sets a mood at the 3 PM turn. And the mood is get out on bounces.

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 3:39:29 PM

The RUT has had a very strong bounce today, leaving a sharp v-bottom off yesterday's low. Today's high came close to retesting its broken uptrend line from March 14th, which was broken on Monday's strong drop. This of course leaves me wondering if today's bounce is the kiss goodbye.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 3:33:04 PM

YM weekly R1 is 13259, by the way.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 3:33:14 PM

Bearsihness is a strong word...I should just say "YM back below weekly R1 and NQ no new highs".

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 3:27:51 PM

YM long entry alert 13,257 here, stop 13,244, target 13,280.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 3:24:28 PM

AMAT $19.35 -0.36% ... slips red.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 3:23:24 PM

VIX is back above the 10 DMA (since many computers trade off envelopes from the 10 DMA, that is my barometer)and is confirming the creeping bearishness.

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 3:19:55 PM

The combination of SPX 1498 (Gann resistance) and the end of the wave count for the 5th wave turned out to be a good spot for the top of this move. Now we should start another pullback as a larger 4th wave and then the final 5th wave higher. The risk as we get down to these last 5th waves is that the move will finish earlier than expected so the form of the next pullback will provide some clues as to what's next. I'm showing the use of a parallel up-channel based on the EW count for this move up in an attempt to figure out where the next 4th wave pullback could find support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 3:17:28 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 3:05:09 PM

VIX.X ... MONTHLY Pivot 13.71 and WEEKLY Pivot 12.92 ... that's the resistance/support.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 3:03:45 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:55:04 PM

And the VIX once again at 13, 10 DMA support or reistance? It's a big difference.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:51:37 PM

But the Yen is dropping...I got stopped a second time on JPY, getting old.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:51:03 PM

If we enter the closing hour with YM below 12379, bears have a shot tomorrow. NQ is weakening again.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 2:50:51 PM

Marc no buy programs is very interesting because look at the TICKS. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:50:19 PM

My guess is most funds are aalready in and enjoying the ride. I doubt they are doing much more buying today ahead of the Feds next week. What we could be seeing is a good job by hedgies squeezing the disbelievers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 2:49:05 PM

Data provide I've been using lately has NYSE NH/NL at 217:17

NASDAQ 155:49.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:49:04 PM

No buy programs, that is very interesting.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 2:46:44 PM

Great question Marc. Was just thinking about that HUUUUGE volume yesterday morning on the pullback to the old 52-week high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 2:44:19 PM

Incredible as it seems, no buy program premiums today, other than the open when cash caught up with futures.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:43:15 PM

I wonder how much short covering is involved in these rallies once they pass the stage of "reason".

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:37:33 PM

Trading JPY during the day is awful. Clean moves at night, but this chop wears you out. In any case, JPY is finding support at 8371 and YM some reistance at 12380.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 2:30:56 PM

INDU 13,250 ... SPX 1,499 ... VIX 13.00 an "unlucky" 13 at that.

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 2:25:51 PM

SPX 1500.43 makes for a good upside Fib projection for this move (so a little less than 2 more points) but be aware that the internal pattern shows a good chance it's completing here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 2:26:30 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $30.66 +0.85% ... set to test its 04/27/07 relative high! Almost looks like a "break away gap" in August, and a running gap a few days ago. Vista lives!

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 2:23:35 PM

Short term divergences are starting to show up and the short term wave count has this completing the small 5th wave to complete the larger 3rd wave. This should be topping for the day and we'll see another pullback start.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:23:19 PM

NQ is still not making new yearly highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:20:34 PM

What a beast.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 2:19:19 PM

Street Tracks Gold (GLD) $66.70 +0.01% ... why would ABX stop hedging. That's a fundamental question.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 2:18:57 PM

As long as the VIX remains in this sideways move and the AD volume makes new daily highs you should not even think about been short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 2:17:55 PM

Barrick Gold (ABX) $29.64 +5.89% ... Earnings Story Link ... Exits hedges.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 2:17:35 PM

Makes no sense to me but the SPX is poised to break yearly highs and move higher. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:17:31 PM

The VIX is climbing.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 2:15:53 PM

My goodness gracious. Look at this move. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 2:13:52 PM

email question ... No! ... Too many other things to keep track of. I will only benchmark each Friday's close for the CME housing futures. August contract would be a focus for anyone not trading December expiration in housing stocks, or further out.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 2:12:54 PM

I use the monthly/weekly as my main driver and will only trade long when they are green. Then use the daily/120/60 charts for entries. If the weekly turns red I will exit and wait for it to turn back green before using the lower timeframes.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 2:11:23 PM

CME San Franciso Aug'07 Housing futures alert ... 208.00

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 2:10:03 PM

Yesterday the jtHMA Spreadsheet showed the $RUT with a 60/120/daily chart red. The way I use these charts is you get long once the 60 turns back green. As you can see it has now turned back green and has already flowed into the 120 minute. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:08:51 PM

Every USD/JPY tickk is affecting this bounce, which makes me think we are seeing lots of momentum traders chasing this.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 2:07:21 PM

All markets to new daily highs. Amazing! Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:06:34 PM

Wit the Feds coming soon and rates going up, I suspect some caution will appear. Right now, we are getting all that beginning of month cash and they are puring it on.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:05:27 PM

The "poblem" with this rally is NQ not making new highs. Other than that, it's pretty solid, but again, that YM hit at 12380 could be a top. Watch VIX 13.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 2:03:54 PM

International Paper (IP) $38.21 +0.95% ... traded a new 52-weeker today. Once a Dow Indu component, but shunned for technology exposure.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/2/2007 2:03:37 PM

YM 38.2% proj last week was hit (12380). We should get a reversal soon if USD/JPY gets down to 120 and below.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:54:23 PM

I'm note sure about a/d volume Jane, but excluding 4/16/07 to 4/19/07, the last time we saw a NYSE a/d this strong was 04/03/07.

Hey! Check out the April lows.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 1:49:00 PM

Its been a while since we have seen AD volume this strong. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:48:05 PM

Check out WAG $44.36 +0.29% ... its on my list. And a pretty good idea where to short it.

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 1:45:50 PM

SPX 1498 is still showing itself to be resistance. It's a strong Gann number in that it is 5 squares up (5 revolutions around the square of nine chart) from the October 2002 low of 768.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:44:54 PM

Actually, this won't "sound right" either, but a bear actually wants to see the NYSE composite get a 3-box reversal higher.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:43:44 PM

If Dow Indu "psychological" was 13,000, then what's the next?

Per prior MM notes, its SPX 1,500.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:43:00 PM

AT&T (T) $38.88 +0.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:42:36 PM

This is going to sound "not right," but ... at this point, I want to see VLO trade a new 52-week high. Then I'll take note of last Friday's close at $71.22.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:32:40 PM

01:10 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 1:28:26 PM

For the 5th wave up on the pattern I just posted (to complete the larger 3rd wave), I show a projection to about 1504 which is where the 5th and 1st waves would be equal. If the 5th wave goes to 62% then that would be just under 1501. Then another slightly larger pullback in another 4th wave is expected. Yesterday's low remains a key level.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:26:46 PM

Look at those deep cyclicals ... DJ $56.00 -0.35% rather flat today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:25:23 PM

If you can find ANY 1,2,3-lettered stock that looks similar to NYSE Comp from this morning's notes, be looking long.

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 1:25:10 PM

Paul's cup and handle was the small 4th wave pullback and start of the 5th wave up. So far so good on the upside pattern: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:20:58 PM

Doesn't see volatile price in timber/lumber. Sees stability ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:19:01 PM

Discussion regarding timber/lumber prices/demand/supply on CNBC.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:12:59 PM

01:10 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 1:11:23 PM

The others were not able to break daily highs. Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 1:10:39 PM

Well at least ER did.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 1:10:22 PM

Thar she blows.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 1:07:32 PM

Here is the VIX and ES charts. Like you have a mirror up to one isn't it. Link

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 1:02:36 PM

I think I see a cup and/or saucer (which is it?) in the dow and spx 5 min charts. Do I and if I do what does it mean?

Good eye Paul! It would be a cup and handle formation which is a bullish pattern. After the right lip of the cup is finished (what will look like a double top against the left lip), a pullback forms the handle and it should have lower volume associated with it. Then the break out to the upside should follow.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 1:02:31 PM

Both Gold and Oil are recovering from their daily lows. The $ is also trying to make new daily lows so my GLD position my hang on to live another day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 1:00:50 PM

My Level II on the DJ Dec $40 Puts (DJ-XH) show 50 contracts traded so far today with Low/High of $0.95 / $1.90. Currently b/a $1.60 x $1.95.

RISK management suggests NOT trying to sell ANY calls, just in case a rival bidder shows up.

I do NOT currently hold any option position in DJ. However, I want to have some idea of a SPECULATIVE option that might benefit should News Corps. offer be withdrawn.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 1:00:15 PM

TRIN is making new daily lows and that is bullish, although a TRIN at these levels is bullish even if it were not making new daily lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 12:55:45 PM

Dow Jones (DJ) option montage screen capture.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 12:41:13 PM

Did you see the ER tagged it daily high but was not able to break through.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 12:38:42 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 12:32:33 PM

email question ... Yes! XAL.X components via the AMEX site at this Link

DDX.X, BTK.X, XCI.X, HUI.X, DRG.X and many more there too.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 12:22:23 PM

As long as both the VIX and the AD volume are climbing price will move sideways. If the VIX were hovering at daily lows (no need to be making new daily lows) I would say the equity markets have a good chance of making new daily highs. But the VIX moving upwards as the AD volume does tells me price will not make any move upward or downward. Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 12:17:59 PM

VLO is a very strong market but this is not the time to be opening new long position. It needs to retrace more than this before rallies can be sustained. Link

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 12:16:33 PM

Re-posting this to fix the link for the first DOW chart:

With the DOW being the most bullish I wanted to update its chart and show a potentially more bullish wave count than on my previous chart ( Link ). Instead of looking for this next leg up as finishing the wave count, as I showed for SPX, it could set up just another corrective pullback before heading higher for the final 5th wave. Link

The dark green count shows the current leg up as being wave-3 which will be followed by a 4th wave pullback which could take a week and be very choppy (that would be our clue that it's a 4th wave correction). Then the final push back up to a new high, potentially to around 13500, in the middle of the month.

Once the current rally is finished and we get a larger pullback the form of the pullback will give us clues. As I said, a choppy sideways/down pullback would suggest another rally leg coming. But a sharper decline that takes out yesterday's low would suggest we may have seen the high. For now this is bullish and that's the way you should be looking to trade.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 12:15:14 PM

Another market I have been bullish on is Silver and it is certainly dropping below its support. Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 12:14:19 PM

This drop in crude is does help my long GLD position. Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 12:13:25 PM

I certainly will be paying attention to my long GLD position at the EOD of the day. A close below 673.00 will have me on the sidelines. Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 12:10:37 PM

Here is the Open Number system charts. If you want to be long you should be using YM. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:53:23 AM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert ... for Continental Airlines (CAL) $37.90 +2.79% ... to $36.60.

Yes! Get that option chain up.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:51:46 AM

XAL.X 50.95 +2.43% ... its WEEKLY Pivot is 51.37.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:51:14 AM

CAL $37.70 +2.11% ... WEEKLY Pivot here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:39:38 AM

11:15 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 11:39:13 AM

With the move up off yesterday's low now looking impulsive I think it's a good guess that we're seeing what could be the final 5th wave up, as the bullish wave count on the SPX chart was calling for (dark green): Link

Now the challenge is to figure out where it could end. Projecting the wave count with some Fibs and trend lines I show a potential high for this move that will be near SPX 1506: Link On the daily chart that would place it at the top of the parallel up-channel for price action since the July low.

What I would want to see at the new high is bearish divergence on this 10-min chart between the top of the 3rd and 5th waves and I'd also want to see bearish divergence on the 60-min chart between last week's high (larger degree 3rd wave) and this new one(5th wave). Seeing those confirmations would add to my confidence level to short that high. Close but not yet.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 11:38:47 AM

This is your get long and stay long kind of day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:30:34 AM

For bullish action, need a MINIMUM of 207 new highs at the big board.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:29:22 AM

Check out a very short-term downward trend on the NYSE Comp. from last Wednesday's high to Monday's relative high. Extension of that trend broken to upside, then support at 11:10 AM. If we make a new intra-day high, buyers (shorts and longs) should drive higher to the close.

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 11:20:33 AM

The H&S pattern on SPX has been pretty much blown out of the water. But with lumber prices still heading lower, as Jeff pointed out earlier, and the home builders getting a bounce I'm guessing the home builders will tip back over. And if they do it from near here they'll make a potential H&S pattern. A break of the neckline near 630 could spell trouble for them. Volume has been tapering off since the left shoulder and that's consistent with a H&S topping pattern. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:19:42 AM

Oh my the internals ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:17:49 AM

11:15 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:11:53 AM

AT&T (T) $38.90 +0.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:07:47 AM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert ... for Continental Airlines (CAL) $37.39 +1.41% ... to $35.80.

Mike Burke's "bear trap" still in play.

Triple bottom sell signal, with quick reversal back higher. Best if sector/market in "bull" status as depicted by bullish %.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:04:29 AM

Toll Brothers (TOL) $30.16 +1.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:04:11 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:01:43 AM

USO $49.68 -1.35% ... "right shoulder" too much into ear, reverse h/s pattern becomes negated.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 11:00:45 AM

Oil Price Analysis: ... Barring any geopolitical or weather events, USO range for next week between $49 and $51

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:59:12 AM

Caterpillar (CAT) $74.12 +1.20% ... probes its April high!

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:57:08 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs Into Refineries rose by 46,000 barrels/day to 15.13 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:54:59 AM

EIA: Weekly Percent Utilization of Ref. Operable Capacity (%) slipped 0.46% to 88.25% from last week's 87.79%. Call it unchanged.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:53:21 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity was unchanged at 17.455 million barrels/day.

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 10:52:20 AM

While the bulk of the move up may be over I think we still need to see some stair-stepping higher so don't be anxious to be picking a top here. If anything look to be buying these small pullbacks.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:52:12 AM

My # Days of Supply edged down to 21.68 from last week's 21.69. Call it unchanged.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 10:52:04 AM

Here is what the markets are doing in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:51:35 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries rose by 80,000 barrels/day to 15.4 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:46:04 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Stockpiles down 918,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:45:18 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles up 10,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:44:33 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles down 198,000 barrels to 117.1 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:41:37 AM

EIA: SPR build by 288,000 barrels to 689.3 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:39:23 AM

Continental Airlines (CAL) $37.39 +1.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:38:57 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles down 792,000 barrels to 39.7 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:36:45 AM

EIA: Weekly Reformulated Gasoline Stockpiles down 90,000 barrels to 1.866 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:35:31 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $72.31 +1.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:35:05 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles down 1.1 million barrels to 193.1 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 10:34:29 AM

Very very bullish day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:34:11 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 1.17 million barrels to 335.65 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:32:14 AM

USO $50.07 -0.59% ... on EIA headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:26:27 AM

Nothing points to bullishness in the point and figure charts of lumber futures at this point, just know where resistance should be.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:25:41 AM

Traders that might be short lumber futures, may want to review positions.

Yesterday's ISM mentioned furniture sector saw rebound. CNBC mentioned something this morning regarding strong Asian demand.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:22:59 AM

If following this developing Dow Jones (DJ) $55.13 -1.90% story ... and thinking "the family would be silly not to sell their stake and take the offer, as the stock would surely drop back to $36," then monitor the deep in the money calls. If I were them, and refused to sell the company, I'd instruct the family broker to sell the deep in the money calls, still get the HUGE gain, but still hold more than 50% of the family "jewel."

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 10:17:47 AM

With the DOW clearly making new highs and SPX close to doing the same, the "bounce" has turned more impulsive and that means we should look for stair-stepping higher to finish the wave count.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:09:45 AM

USO $50.05 -0.61% ... needs to find support at $49.98 and 80.9% WEEKLY Retracement. Also point of the 60-minute interval reverse h/s pattern.

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 10:06:46 AM

Just another bullish day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/2/2007 10:03:36 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 10:00:55 AM

Gold is bouncing off the morning low so we'll see if the contract can get back up to, or recover above, its 50-dma just above 674. At the same time GLD, which has broken the neckline of a potential H&S top, could bounce back up for a retest as well (or recover above) at 66.50. I'd use the downtrend line on GLD now to chase your stop down (so 67.30 would be a good stop for now). A recovery back above the neckline and then a break of the downtrend line would be bullish. Link

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 9:47:03 AM

Approximate futures premium over cash (June futures):

YM -- +33
ES -- +5.25
NQ -- +9.50
ER -- +3.40

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 9:43:24 AM

Yesterday I had posted a 30-min chart for the SPX (with the potential H&S pattern) and on it had an uptrend line from March 14th through the March 30th low, which was briefly violated on April 12th. That trend line is currently near 1491 so watch that level for possible resistance to this bounce.

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 9:40:14 AM

The DOW is making new highs above Monday's while the RUT has been able to retrace 38% of its decline from its highs. The tale of two markets. The DOW's wave count was looking for a new high, or two, and the RUT's wave count showed a finished wave count to the upside. I wasn't sure how to resolve that discrepancy but it looks like the market is doing it for me.

Keene Little : 5/2/2007 9:19:26 AM

Looks like a bit of a reversal in the equities (off their highs) and bonds (off their lows) after the European markets opened last night. Equities are pulling back to the flat line with the DOW slightly stronger (now there's a surprise).

The US dollar got a good bounce overnight but is pulling back a little and the rally has depressed the prices of the metals. Gold (June contract) has now broken its 50-dma and next support is near 665 which is its uptrend line from October (this morning's low is 670.30 so far). Silver (July contract) is dropping towards its 200-dma at 13.00 (this morning's low is 13.13 so far).

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 9:05:09 AM

All markets broke their PDHs overnight. Link

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 8:24:13 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. private-sector jobs increased by 64,000 in April, the weakest job growth in nearly four years, according to the monthly ADP employment report released Wednesday.

Service-sector firms added about 106,000 jobs, while the goods-producing industries cut 42,000, including 20,000 in manufacturing. Goods-producing industries include manufacturing, mining and construction. The 22,000 jobs lost in goods-producing industries excluding manufacturing is the largest since November 2001.

Small businesses created 45,000 jobs, medium-sized firms created 29,000 and large businesses shed 10,000 jobs

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 8:23:34 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Applications for new mortgages increased 0.6% last week on higher demand for loans to buy a home, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.

The total number of applications filed including purchase loans and refinancing loans was up about 9% compared with the same week a year ago.

The MBA's data do not indicate how many applications were accepted. Lenders have reported tightening their standards for loans, especially for subprime and exotic alt-A loans.

Jane Fox : 5/2/2007 8:21:55 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Job reduction announcements by major U.S. corporations soared by 44% to 70,672 in April after falling to an eight-month low in March, according to a monthly report released Wednesday by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.

Layoff plans were up 18% compared with April 2006. It's the first time since September that layoffs rose on a year-over-year comparison.

The job cuts in April were led by Citigroup (C), which announced plans to eliminate 17,000 positions. With 33,789 reductions in April, the financial sector has now announced plans to cut 50,221 jobs so far this year, overtaking the auto industry as the top job reducer.

Market Monitor Archives