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Keene Little : 5/3/2007 11:54:32 PM

End of day re-posts:

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The 4 indices' roadmaps for Friday:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

CME has started its bounce and should continue. Link

GOOG is back up near its downtrend line now (475) and its broken uptrend line from March is just above that. The bearish wave count calls for a drop back down to a new low. Link

The pattern for the brokers (XBD) looks like a bearish ascending wedge with the bearish divergences to go with it. Link The flip side of the ascending wedge pattern for XBD is quite bullish. The bullish interpretation of the wave count would have this index exploding higher out of this. Let price lead the way here.

OI Technical Staff : 5/3/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Keene Little : 5/3/2007 5:56:54 PM

The 4 indices' roadmaps for Friday:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 5:47:42 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 5:25:41 PM

AMC Entertainment Cancels IPO - Source

DJ- Theater chain giant AMC Entertainment Inc. has canceled its initial public offering, sources familiar with the situation said on Thursday.

It follows speculation in recent days that AMC would have to cut the public offering's price range of $18 to $20 a share, set by underwriter Goldman Sachs, to complete the deal.

The Kansas City, Mo., company had been looking to sell 39.5 million shares through its IPO.

The company could have raised as much as $790 million had it priced at the high end of the range.

AMC's public offering has been under pressure this week following the recent disappointing debut of another leading cinema chain, Cinemark Holdings Inc. (CNK).

"Since the debut of Cinemark did not perform as Wall Street investors expected, the AMC Entertainment IPO immediately became a tough sell," said Scott Sweet, managing director of IPOBoutique.com, an IPO research service near Tampa, Fla.

AMC, which acquired rival Loews Cineplex Entertainment Corp. in January 2006, has 382 theatres and 5,340 screens, 87% of which are in the U.S. and Canada.

Only Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) is bigger, with 6,386 screens, according to the company's Web site.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 5:08:29 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 5:03:12 PM

BTW, the flip side of the ascending wedge pattern for XBD is quite bullish. The bullish interpretation of the wave count would have this index exploding higher so if that were to happen, say with a rally above 260 that holds, take all short bets off the table and get long and hang on for dear life.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 5:01:36 PM

Jane! Did you notice the DXY was up today and so was gold?

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 5:00:57 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 4:58:30 PM

I continue to keep my eyes on the brokers (XBD) for some clues and they keep chugging higher with the rest of the market (no new highs though). Its pattern from the March low is a very clear bearish ascending wedge with the bearish divergences to go with it. Link

It's possible to count the move up as complete at today's high (it might do a little throw-over first tomorrow) or it could do a pullback and then final high, possibly doing a double top with its January high near 260. This index is telling me to get ready to get short for a fast ride back down below the March low--a trend line break on this index would be a definite short signal.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 4:45:11 PM

June Nat. Gas (ng07m) settled up $0.217, or +2.81% at $7.947. Biiiig volume today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 4:43:24 PM

June Unleaded (rb07m) settled up $0.0150, or +0.67% at $2.2476.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 4:41:49 PM

June Crude Oil (cl07m) settled down $0.49, or -0.77% at $63.19.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 4:40:59 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

S&P 500 Closes above 1,500 !!!

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 4:36:42 PM

CME has started its bounce so until I see evidence to the contrary this should continue higher in at least a larger bounce (in both time and price). Link

GOOG is back up near its downtrend line now (475) and the bearish wave count calls for another drop from here. If it breaks above 475 the next level of resistance would be its broken uptrend line from March, which isn't much higher. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 4:25:03 PM

PTR trades 2.945 million. 4.5-times average daily volume last 3 months!

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 4:20:11 PM

Even on an intraday basis while the NYSE made a new high this afternoon its a-d line deteriorated. Just not much to like here to get me excited about the long side of this market. Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 4:14:12 PM

For a slightly different perspective on the NYSE a-d volume it's interesting to see how today progressed--little green candles followed by evern smaller red ones. A buy program would hit, they'd let it settle back, hit with another buy program, let it settle, rinse and repeat. Very methodical and almost looks manipulated. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 4:09:06 PM

Look at the tajectory of that volume. Amazing. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 4:07:51 PM

Economic reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. April Nonfarm Payrolls. Expected: -60K. Previous: +180K.

8:30a.m. April Unemployment Rate. Expected: 4.5%. Previous: 4.4%.

9:45a.m. April ECRI Inflation Gauge. Previous: 118.6.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 4:07:27 PM

This was an unnice day to trade. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 4:04:36 PM

Chavez: Threatens To Nationalize Banks

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 4:04:06 PM

Chavez: Threatens To Nationalize Sidor

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 4:02:52 PM

Venezuela's Chaves: Doesn't Need IMV, or World Bank

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 4:01:37 PM

But the bulls certainly aren't worried about tomorrow morning's reports as they jam it higher into the close.

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 4:00:23 PM

Avoiding the day-to-day noise in the advancing volume - declining volume on the NYSE, here's a comparison of the 20-dma of the a-d volume (blue) and again, bearish divergence. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 3:59:14 PM

Time Warner (TWX) $21.06 +0.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 3:58:30 PM

Time Warner's CEO: Private Equity Has Inquired About AOL

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 3:56:25 PM

Same with the a-d line for NYSE. There's just nothing behind this rally. Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 3:54:34 PM

Where's the beef? NYSE made new highs today but again on lower breadth as measured by individual stocks making new highs. Bearish divergence. Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 3:43:39 PM

The difference with the RUT is that it still maintains the possbility that it has already topped out. Buying some puts on the small caps, stop at a new high above 835, is a good play. Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 3:39:54 PM

Same for NDX. The bearish divergences at this high as compared to the price high at the end of last week sure makes me want to short this puppy. A break back below 1892 would be a sell signal. Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 3:34:38 PM

Also no change for the slightly bigger picture for SPX. Just waiting for the top of this leg up to then give us some clues as to what's next. The top trend line on this chart is near 1512 but I don't see that happening. Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 3:29:32 PM

It's just conjecture on my part but as I watch this chop its way higher, which again is an ending pattern, I'm left to wonder what will happen after tomorrow morning's reports (payrolls and earnings). We could get an immediate drop out of the gates that kicks off the next leg down or we could get a gap up, spike up to finish the wave count and then drop for the rest of the day. The latter move would give us a key reversal day. Who knows, if it got really ugly and the DOW dropped below 13150 it could give us a key reversal week.

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 3:25:54 PM

Not much has changed for the DOW today--still looking for a high for this leg of the rally to then determine from the next pullback whether we're going to get just another correction (green wave-4) or the start of a bigger decline. The DOW is pinched at the top of its parallel up-channel for price action from March 14th. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 3:21:12 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 3:20:10 PM

There's just enough buying interest to keep this elevated and to keep the bears in their caves. The overlapping highs and lows while it climbs higher is clear evidence to me of an ending pattern and that's why I'm not interested in trying the long side--the upside is labored and it could reverse on a dime. I don't see a good enough reward:risk ratio.

So following it up with the uptrend line is still the best way at this point. If I see a nice setup again to try to pick a top I'll do that but with these choppy price patterns that can be a real challenge. At this point it looks like the Boyz just want to see SPX close over 1500 today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 3:19:26 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $122 +6.5% ... "X gets another square."

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 3:05:44 PM

If you have an IB account you can partcipate in this IPO through a dutch auction.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 3:05:18 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Market watchers are keeping a close eye on the initial public offering of options-trading firm Interactive Brokers Group as a steadily rising market combined with red-hot interest in exchanges and trading platforms have many investors expecting a big rise in the shares when they debut Friday.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) plans to offer 34.5 million shares at $27 to $31 apiece to raise about $1 billion. Earlier this week, Interactive Brokers Group boosted the IPO from 20 million shares and lifted the expected price from $23 to $27 a share.

"The demand is considered massive across both retail and institutional books," Scott Sweet of IPO Boutique said. "The mere fact that the price-range and share-size increase was so large reinforces that belief."

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 3:04:01 PM

Hard to deny these are strong. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 3:02:55 PM

ES's break to a new daily high was by 1 tick.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 3:01:54 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 3:01:09 PM

Never trade against the AD volume.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 3:00:36 PM

The bulls are really trying here but I don't see enough strength to bring the markets to new daily highs. I mean give it a break and take a rest. And just as I am typing this ES breaks to a new daily highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 2:56:30 PM

VONAGE DENIED RETRIAL IN VERIZON DISPUTE

DJ- Vonage's bid for a retrial in its patent dispute with Verizon is thrown out by a federal appeals court, which says it can include the issue of getting a new trial in its appeal. Vonage (VG) falls 3.6%%, Verizon (VZ) up 3.3%%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 2:54:50 PM

SSAB TO ACQUIRE IPSCO FOR $7.7B

DJ- Swedish steel maker will pay $160 a share for Ipsco, which said last month it was in merger talks. Offer is a 7.7% premium to yesterday's closing price. Deal requires two-third approval by Ipsco shareholders.

IPS $154.71 +5.96% ...

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 2:44:26 PM

SPX/ES held its uptrend line on that little spike down. If ES now drops below 1505.50 I'd short it and use a 2-pt stop. Just keep following this up and wait for the break.

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 2:36:37 PM

Based on the corrective look of the bounce off yesterday afternoon's low this could easily go either way. Because the pattern to the upside is so choppy (so far) it looks more like an ending pattern than a setup to get long. But trying to identify the end of this move is proving to be a tad difficult.

Therefore the alternate method from here is to wait now for a break of the uptrend line from yesterday afternoon's low (which should have been the end of the 4th wave). For ES that line is currently coming up to 1506 (SPX 1500.65). Let this chop higher and then once it drops and takes out that trend line, get short.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 2:23:19 PM

PetroChina (PTR) Updated PnF chart at this Link

Annual dividend of $4.00/share skews StockCharts.com's Link which NEVER even came close to $108 on recent pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 2:19:08 PM

Also a "low pole warning" as PTR retraces more than 1/2 of O column from $126 to $110.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 2:17:28 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $120.00 ... "X gets the square."

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 2:13:08 PM

After dropping this morning it now looks like a relatively flat and corrective bounce in the euro (bear flag) which suggests it will drop lower (and the US dollar will rally). This should continue to put pressure on commodities in general.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 1:56:12 PM

PetroChina's parent unveils big oil find in Bohai ... Reuters Story from earlier this morning Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 1:52:12 PM

YM still hang'n around its WEEKLY R1 ... YM 13,260

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 1:51:24 PM

ES Weekly R1 just ahead.

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 1:50:46 PM

Pushing back up and you should be stopped out of your ES short. We've entered a choppy pattern and not worth trading until it clears up now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 1:48:01 PM

200-day SMA alert! ... PetroChina (PTR) $116.92 +1.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 1:42:39 PM

US Dollar Index (dx00y) ... Remember Jane! MONTHLY R1 at 81.98.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 1:41:13 PM

All I know is GEO didn't pull back to $45.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 1:41:09 PM

Never did follow how that prison riot in Illinois turned out (04/26/07).

Geo Group (GEO) $52.65 -0.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 1:36:50 PM

Corrections Corp. of America (CXW) $59.51 +3.94% ... the "jail break" continues. Notable new 52-weeker at the big board.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 1:27:36 PM

Here is the jtHMA spreadsheet. There are two things that I are beginning to worry be about my long Gold position. First of all the US$ daily has just turned green, a first in a long time. Secondly look at how bearish Oil is looking now. The only green is the weekly. Ouch! Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 1:25:57 PM

This has dropped down enough to now lower the stop if you shorted this bounce--a couple of ticks above the last little high (so ES 1507.75). Once ES drops to a new low then bring it down to breakeven and let it ride.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 1:13:07 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 1:01:50 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 1:00:30 PM

At 1506.75 on this bounce for ES, it did tag its broken uptrend line so it's a short here with a stop at 1508.50. Worth a try.

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 12:55:54 PM

After breaking its uptrend line from Tuesday, if SPX bounces back up for a retest, currently near 1501.4, and fails there, it'll be a good kiss goodbye for a short entry.

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 12:49:14 PM

Copper is on a tear today, up 2.4%, currently trading 3.73 (July contract). Its daily pattern shows upside potential to just under 3.94 although it has hit its first upside Fib projection for this move at 3.75 (5th wave = 62% of 1st wave). Unless the oscillators kick into gear here they're going to leave a nasty bearish divergence, which I expect to see for its 5th wave up. I haven't checked any copper stocks but they may be setting up a top based on what I see here in the metal. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 12:48:46 PM

JB Hunt (JBHT) $28.90 +6.14% ... upgraded at Baird to "outperform" from "neutral." Announces quarterly dividend, share repurchase Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 12:40:58 PM

At least on equities we seem to be seeing the same thing Jane. I still like the short side better than the long side on the metals. If I see something start to happen impulsively to the upside on the metals then I'll switch directions on the next pullback but so far it's looking like it could be just a correction to the decline. Gold (YG) has retraced 50% of its decline so we'll see what becomes of this. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 12:35:13 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.07 -4.22% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.87 on Revenue of $40.88B

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 12:33:27 PM

So glad I did not bail on the long GOLD position yesterday. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 12:32:34 PM

Gee Keene we are on the same side.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 12:32:09 PM

From what I can see we will not be getting another push higher unless the buyers come back in strong. It looks like the bears are starting to get stronger.

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 12:31:48 PM

Hmm, this little break down is starting to look a little more ominous.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 12:30:56 PM

VIX to new daily highs but AD Volume is still strong, relatively. AD line has fallen +236.00

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 12:27:37 PM

The risk here, in expecting another push higher is that it may have already been made (the small jab up just before 11:30 as a truncated high. This would be classic for the final 5th wave to go "missing". A break below SPX 1500 would spell trouble and below 1497 would be confirmation that we've seen the high.

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 12:25:02 PM

SPX dribbled out of its steeper uptrend line for what should be its 5th wave up and is now testing its uptrend line from Tuesday. This should hold if there's to be one final new high to top this off.

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 12:21:04 PM

The silver contract (July) doesn't have quite the same strength in its bounce as gold but it too has broken its downtrend line after leaving a bullish divergence at its last low. My best guess on the metals is that this bounce is correcting the decline and once it's done they will head lower again. So far silver has retraced 38% of its decline in a 3-wave bounce. But the time for the correction is still short so there should be more to the correction before heading lower again (assuming it will head lower). Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 12:13:17 PM

Plum Creek Timber (PCL) $40.21 +0.27% Link ... PnF chart may not be "accurate" due to company's $1.68 annual dividend.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 12:08:53 PM

S&P: Plum Creek Timber Ratings Unaffected By Higher Repurchase Authorization

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 12:02:30 PM

Even with the US dollar getting a good bounce today the metals are also getting a good bounce. So whether the current bounce in the metals is just a correction to the decline or the start of another rally leg is the question. With the break of the downtrend line it was a good place to cover a short. Confirmation will be a break above last Friday's high of 67.53 for GLD (very close now). If the rally in the dollar continues then the bounce in gold will likely be just a correction. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 11:52:30 AM

Court Freezes ABN Amro Sale of US Bank ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 11:51:17 AM

May Copper (hg07k) alert! $3.67 +1.10% (30-min delayed) ... set to test contract highs.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 11:46:10 AM

This has not been an easy day to trade.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/3/2007 11:43:19 AM

Charts give you support and resistance and trend when established. But they don't tell you what is going to happen in a month. That takes a little more macro analysis. And right now, inflation will be a risk as we grow and gold will be a refuge especially with the Yen falling. Gasoline prices are headed higher, in myopinion. We will see 3.50 a gallon this summer and 4 in California. That is inflationary.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/3/2007 11:39:17 AM

I missed that trade and I'm not happy. I should have stuck to my guns on the fundamentals.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/3/2007 11:38:17 AM

Gold was deifnitely a buy a few days ago.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 11:27:45 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: Just before my absence the NYSE 10-day NH/NL ratio was 90.9%. The NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratio was 70.0%. I would have to believe they remain in X, as they were prior to my absence.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 11:24:04 AM

Don't try shorting here. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 11:22:57 AM

YM has just moved above its Daily open so its number is now +10 as well.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 11:21:33 AM

The Smith Open Number system is telling you you should stay long ES, step aside YM and step aside ER. Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 11:20:25 AM

With SPX pushing back up there is now a another smaller up-channel for what appears to be the final 5th wave--this 3-min chart zeroes in closer on the 10-min SPX chart I showed earlier: Link

I'm just making some guesses here but if we now get a consolidation followed by another push higher then it would be an ideal setup. The new high in this case is the one that should be accompanied by bearish divergences.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 11:16:50 AM

US$ climbing and that is not good for my long Gold position.

OIl falling is another nail in the coffin for Gold Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/3/2007 11:05:12 AM

They're just gooing to hold ES 1500 and press higher until TNX gets to 4.9%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 11:02:57 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 11:00:15 AM

The way I read the AD volume and VIX is if both are in sync, VIX making new daily lows and AD volume making new daily highs, it is a slam dunk. Get long and stay long. If the AD volume is making new dailys and the VIX is just hovering at daily lows just as good as the above scenario. If the AD volume is making new daily highs and the VIX is climbing we have a sideways market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 11:00:11 AM

NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 9,750 +0.36% Link ... "X gets the square."

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 11:00:03 AM

Nope, still pushing higher. I think it's probably best to wait for a pullback and then a new high with some bearish divergences. The top of the small parallel up-channel for SPX is near 1505 and a Fib projection for the 5th wave to equal 162% of the 1st wave is at 1506.55 so there's still some upside potential here.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 10:55:49 AM

YM is the only to not break its PDH yet. I guess it is taking a well needed rest. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 10:52:11 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 10:50:44 AM

Looks like I need to put the keys back in my pocket, take my coat off and sit back down for an after dinner drink. Pushing higher again. But now it could get interesting--SPX nearly tagged 1502 and may have just finished the 5th wave up. I'd like to see a few more short term bearish divergences here but if this continues to chop its way higher then I don't see it going much higher as it's an ending pattern. Still looking good for a short play setup.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 10:32:52 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table at this Link ... Build of 87 Bcf

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 10:30:03 AM

OK this is boring. Can we just go somewhere now? This is like standing at the door, car keys in hand, ready to leave but your spouse keeps talking to your friends who had you over for dinner.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 10:23:12 AM

Swing trade sell covered call alert ... for the 1/3 position (100 shares for $10k=full) and the Continental Airlines CAL May $40 Calls CAL-EH) for $1.00.

CAL $38.74 +3.83%

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 10:12:06 AM

Here's my June Unleaded (rb07m) bar chart with nested retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 10:07:58 AM

I think June Unleaded (rb07m) $2.21 -0.89% ... is a short here, stop $2.26, target of $2.05.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/3/2007 10:07:25 AM

Watch out for that Yen...it's dropping.

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 10:04:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/3/2007 10:01:27 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $73.17 +0.45% ... New 52-weeker at the big board!

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 9:52:51 AM

So far it's been a nice little gap n crap. If you're short just use this morning's high as your stop. It's possible that this pullback is simply part of a larger correction before finishing the 5th wave up so keep your stops tight for now (for either side). Whipsawwing is the risk right here.

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 9:39:16 AM

First Fib projection of 1499.26 for SPX (5th wave = 62% of 1st wave) has almost been tagged. At this point any drop back down below 1494.75 (cash), yesterday afternoon's low, would be a sell signal.

Keene Little : 5/3/2007 9:24:31 AM

It looks like we'll get the pop higher that I hoped we would see this morning. As we were tracking yesterday on the SPX a move up this morning should complete a 5-wave rally from Tuesday's low. Whether that will be a setup for just another pullback or THE top I'm not sure but it should at least be a good spot to try shorting this rally. Equality between the 1st and 5th waves is at 1502.04 and the high so for for ES this morning (1507.50, if that holds, could be the end of the run. Gap n crap? That's always risky to play but it's just possible. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 9:15:04 AM

ROME (MarketWatch) -- Eni SpA , Italy's biggest oil and natural gas company by volume, confirmed Thursday that six international workers were seized earlier in the day in Nigeria by militants on an oil ship 55 miles off the southern coast of the West African country.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 9:13:53 AM

This market is also poised to break to new yearly highs. Big yawn! Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 9:12:37 AM

What can you say about this market other than, "Let's take a break." I still think a retracement back to 12800 would be very healthy indeed. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 9:09:17 AM

The "retracement" the SPX took earlier this week was only back to the lower trendline of the upward channel. This market is setting up for a break of its yearly highs as well. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 9:03:08 AM

Very nice move in the Russell 2000 cash index yesterday. I believe this is setting up for a break to new yearly highs which of course is a break to new all time highs. Then once that happens resistance is anyone's guess. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 8:59:50 AM

Here is the daily chart of Oil and it looks like support is now sitting at 62.40-62.50. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 8:57:11 AM

Here's my daily chart of Gold and as you can see it took a 38.20% retracement. I will not allow it to go much further before I am out. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 8:55:04 AM

Markets breaking their overnight highs here.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 8:53:45 AM

Equity markets liked what they saw in the Q1 Productivity report out at 8:30 but heck the market likes anything nowadays. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 8:51:36 AM

Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 8:50:08 AM

My long Gold position survived to live another day. I have a "Get out" if the big contract (CL) closes below 673. I am showing the Emini 100oz contract here because my big contract is on a 20 minute delay. I like to see the $ hovering around daily lows - Gold and the US$ trade opposite to one another in a very tight relationship.

Oil and Gold also trade together but that relationship is direct and I would like to see the price of Oil move up to support my long Gold. I know that is almost hearsay to say I want to see the price of Oil move up but I am talking only the context of my trading, not my driving. Link

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 8:42:52 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - In a sign that the labor market remains tight, U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level since early January, the Labor Department said Thursday.

First time applications for state unemployment benefits fell by 21,000 to 305,000 in the week ending April 28, the department said. This is the lowest level since the week ending Jan. 13.

The four-week average of new claims dropped 4,500 to 328,750. The previous week's initial claims were revised to 326,000 from 321,000.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 8:39:34 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- U.S. productivity grew much more sharply than expected during the first quarter despite a steep slowdown in economic activity while labor costs remained in check, suggesting that U.S. firms are adjusting to the slowdown by cutting back on labor.

The productivity report should prove comforting to Federal Reserve officials who have contended in recent weeks that underlying productivity trends remain strong.

Nonfarm business productivity rose at a 1.7% annualized rate between January and March, the La

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 8:24:36 AM

DAteline WSJ - RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- A gathering here of Asian and Middle East energy ministers has cast a fresh spotlight on how rapidly the petroleum-rich Persian Gulf and energy-hungry East Asia are intertwining their economies, with potentially significant consequences for the international balance of power.

The Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable, which met yesterday, surveyed oil demand, supply possibilities and energy-investment opportunities in Asia, where explosive economic growth is helping drive the world economy. The 16 ministers at the meeting -- jointly hosted by Saudi Arabia and Japan -- represent the huge oil exporters of the Persian Gulf region, dubbed West Asia by the group, and such major consumers from East Asia as China, South Korea and India.

Jane Fox : 5/3/2007 8:23:55 AM

Dateline WSJ - General Motors Corp. on Thursday posted a 90% plunge in first-quarter net income, though its loss narrowed at its core North American region, as poor earnings at GMAC Financial Services weighed on the auto maker.

GM, in the midst of an extensive corporate restructuring, reported net income of $62 million, or 11 cents a share, compared with $602 million, or $1.06 a share, a year earlier. Earnings in the latest quarter included unfavorable special items of $32 million, or six cents a share.

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