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Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 10:14:44 PM

Hey! ... SPG's relative strength vs. SPY Link does give the "sell signal." Stock looks to be losing favor relative to broader market.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 10:13:20 PM

email reply ... Yes and no! ... Yes that would be a "buying climax" pattern on Simon Property Group (SPG) $113.35 -1.55% this week, but no it is not a "bull trap." A bull trap is a triple top buy signal that is just one box above, then the reversal back lower. SPG Link traded $118.25 on Monday.

OI Technical Staff : 5/4/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 9:25:44 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Closed out the PTR-FD when PTR traded traded target of $128.

Stopped out of the 1/4 USO at $48.80.

Long 1/3 BOOM at $34.40

Shorted YM 13,301 , covered ahead of target (13,270) at 13,275.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 9:14:31 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 9:04:35 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 5:57:02 PM

Ssssniffff ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 5:56:39 PM

Hey! The all-time Friday closing high on the SPY was $153.56.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 5:53:08 PM

Hey! SPY's WEEKLY R2 pretty close to the May $153 Call calculation. Don't really see the May $151 put calculation of $149.74 in either WEEKLY, or MONTHLY. Might be a key level on Monday?

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 5:53:03 PM

SPY's WEEKLY Pivot Levels for next week are ... $146.45, $148.69, Piv= 149.90, $152.14, $153.35.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 5:52:55 PM

email reply ... Yes! However, you need some type of benchmark. Here's the SPY option chain from 02:10:29 PM EDT Link

And here it is again, same sort order as 02:10. Link

So ... VIX.X edged down from there. May $150 Puts stayed "neutral."

June $150 Put actually finished #2 (was #3) with a bull bias (selling of a put is viewed as bullish) I have day's average as $1.98. 150 - 1.98 = $148.02.

May $151 Put with a bearish bias (buying of a put is viewed as bearish) I have day's average as $1.26. $151 - $1.26 = $149.74.

Down lower, I note May $153 Call volume rose with bearish bias (call selling is viewed as bearish). I show day's average $0.44. $153 + $0.44 = $153.44

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 5:17:48 PM

CME San Francisco Aug'07 Housing futures ... (per Wednesay's al_rt) finished 208.00. Up 0.40 for from last Friday.

My thinking here is that a "region's" action strength/weakness might be an al_rt for broader strength/weakness. Similar to stock/sector action we observe.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 4:58:20 PM

CME Feb'08 Housing Futures finish 209.60. Up 0.60 from last Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 4:57:23 PM

CME Nov'07 Housing Futures finish 212.00. Up 0.40 from last Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 4:56:35 PM

CME Aug'07 Housing Futures finish 215.40. Up 0.60 from last Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 4:55:32 PM

CME May'07 Housing Futures finish 218.40. Unchanged from last Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 3:59:47 PM

Weyerhaeuser (WY) $82.81 +6.00% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.62 on Revenue of $4.69B

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 3:46:11 PM

Argentina's Car Output -7.5% on Month; Up 23.9% On Year

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 3:45:13 PM

Argentina's April CPI Up 0.7% On Month; Up 8.9% On Year

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 3:39:58 PM

I've got to head out to a 1:00 meeting (west coast time) so I'll check back in late this afternoon and update the roadmaps. Enjoy the rest of the day and your weekend.

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 3:24:51 PM

I'm getting that bear flag feeling on this bounce. We might get some selling into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 3:12:27 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 3:11:04 PM

Hopefully this version of that DOW weekly chart is not too confusing but I wanted to show you the Fibonacci relationships (in addition to the time cycles) in the rally from the October 2002 low. Link

First of all the wave count that I added shows a double zigzag count (A-B-C-X-A-B-C). There's usually a Fibonacci relationship in each A-B-C and between the two A-B-Cs. I already mentioned the 13257.80 which is where the two A-B-Cs are equal.

The first A-B-C has wave-C just a bit more than 162% of wave-A. The 2nd A-B-C has wave-C a bit more than 261.8% of wave-A at 13192.50 (showing the relative strength of the move up from August 2004). None of this means the DOW is finished rallying but with so many other signs of a potential top I think it's worth noting the longer term symmetry in the market here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 3:02:12 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 2:48:55 PM

The DOW's daily candlestick is so far looking like a gravestone doji which has the shadow, or wick, above its opening and closing prices which are close to equal. This while price is at resistance by a couple of different trend lines. The bears would love to see an end of the day with this pattern (it will need confirmation with a red candle on Monday).

I've shown this weekly chart before with the 40-week cycles and the fact that this week is the end of the current cycle. It also shows the Fib projection where the "bounce" from the October 2002 low has two equal legs up at 13257.80 which is where the DOW has been struggling this week. All the pieces are in place now for a major high. We'll just have to see what the bears can do with it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:44:29 PM

Olin Corp. (OLN) $18.36 +2.17% ... makes a move.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:40:42 PM

CAL $38.82 +2.21% ...

AMR $27.60 +3.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:38:32 PM

Continental, American raise U.S. fares $5

Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:36:21 PM

NASDAQ-100 Dynamic Heatmap Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:35:49 PM

ETF Dynamic Heatmap Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:34:15 PM

Bear Stearns: Ups Panama, Barbados Sovereign Debt

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:33:46 PM

Bear Stearns: Cutting Dominican Republic, Iraq Sovereign Debt.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:32:51 PM

"Ditto?" for SIL $18.03 +18.46% ... was news a couple days ago about restating some prior results Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:31:39 PM

Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $3.81 -2.56% ... #13 most active today. Downgraded at Deutsche Securities to "hold" from "buy."

Must be something in today's from 11:41:34.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:26:42 PM

Wells Fargo To Buy Greater Bay Bancorp ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:19:08 PM

"Max Pain Theory" for the SPY currently tabulated at $148.00 ($1 increments)

SPX 1,465 (5-point increments)

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 2:16:16 PM

SPY Options Chain ... just a benchmark ... Sorted by CBOE most active Link

All exchanges would have SYH-QT having traded 17,987 to this point.

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 2:12:11 PM

Another potential bearish candlestick that is staring NDX in the face here, if the bulls don't get this back up, is a bearish engulfing candlestick. It gapped up but if it closes below yesterday's opening price of 1892.60 then today's red body will engulf yesterday's. At the trend line from January 2004 this would not be the kind of sign the bulls will want to leave on the table today. Bears of course would be smacking their lips at such a juicy morsel. Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 1:59:15 PM

One other point on the copper chart--I didn't draw in the mid line of its up-channel but that's where price is currently stalled. This is a very typical place for the 5th wave to stop.

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 1:57:13 PM

This is copper's daily chart and shows the clean EW count. It's in its 5th wave with bearish divergences so far. It has met its normal minimum price projection at 3.75 so a drop back below 3.456, the 4th wave low on April 27th, would say the rally is done. Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 1:52:23 PM

And as for copper, its price pattern looks like a very clean 5-wave move up and I see a top sooner rather than later. As I had mentioned yesterday, the July contract has a Fib projection just shy of 3.94 (today's high was 3.807 so a little further, maybe).

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 1:51:44 PM

Hmmmm ... AVB $118.82 -2.00% ... a possible "poster child" for SPG $113.43 -1.48%?

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 1:50:01 PM

Jane's post (1:22) about Jon Nadler's comment on the industrial aspect of silver as compared to gold is a very good point. The fact that silver has been underperforming gold is one of the reasons I've been shorting silver. His comment about silver outperforming gold works in reverse too--check out recent declines and you'll see when it drops hard you can make a $1000 per emini contract (that's a dollar change in the price of silver) in a heartbeat, and it requires a very low margin.

Today's bounce had it testing its 50-dma and while it could certainly bounce higher, it too had a good setup for hitting it short at this morning's high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 1:48:53 PM

Holly Corp. (HOC) $63.00 -0.81% ... WEEKLY S1 holds ($62.41).

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 1:42:27 PM

After the sharp drop it's looking like the current bounce may be dying. The day is still young but it'll be interesting to see how the daily candle finishes--right now it's looking suspiciously like a shooting star. This candlestick at resistance after a strong run up could spell trouble for next week. If it looks like it will finish that way today I'll definitely stuff a few puts in my pocket to take home with me. Go out several months and only buy a few. We don't have any confirmation yet of topping.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 1:33:40 PM

Wooops ... OIH hasn't traded a 52-week high. (5/11/06 $169.75)

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 1:31:48 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) 161.22 +0.01% ... noting session low almost identical to last Friday's close.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 1:25:17 PM

Sector Status Change ... yesterday's action had GAMEing reversing back lower to "bull correction" from "bull confirmed."

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 1:22:03 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- As the metals market waits anxiously for gold to return to the $700 level, traders may be best served to keep an eye on copper and silver.

"Keep an eye on silver because it is an industrial metal as opposed to anxiety barometer or monetary metal," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers. "It not only rises with gold in a big bull market, but usually outperforms it."

And as for copper, "the way inventories are going, there is a real possibility that last year's peak price could be exceeded in 2007," said Eric Coffin, a co-editor of hraadvisory.com, which offers publications focused on resource stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 1:21:15 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 1:14:29 PM

VIX.X 13.23 +1.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 1:12:07 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in VLO.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 1:11:36 PM

Swing trade put add alert ... for one (1) additional Valero Energy VLO May $70 Put (ZPY-QN) at the offer of $0.55.

VLO $72.99 -0.45% ...

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 1:10:45 PM

The gold fund (GLD) came right back up for what looks like a kiss goodbye against its broken uptrend line from March 14th. Daily MACD has barely lifted and the 60-min chart looks ready to roll back over. I don't know if that's all there will be for the bounce but it was a good place to short it this morning, stop at a new high. My preferred wave count from here is the dark red one which calls for a steep drop next, finding support along the way at uptrend lines and moving averages. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 1:09:45 PM

It's take one heck of a move today for a "buying climax" in VLO $72.93 -0.53% ... DAILY Pivot here, DAILY S2 at $70.93 would do it though.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 1:02:02 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:46:27 PM

TRIN 0.97 ... session high has been 1.04.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:46:10 PM

VIX.X 13.22 +0.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:45:47 PM

YM 13,278 ... session low has been 13,261 and DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:44:54 PM

Reports: Microsoft Pursuing Yahoo! ... AP Story Link

Microsoft (MSFT) $30.41 -1.80% ...

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $32.73 +16.18% ...

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 12:42:27 PM

TICKS back to +800.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:41:53 PM

DJ- NYMEX Crude Slips Below $62 On Weak Near-term Demand

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 12:37:06 PM

Gap up, new high and now dropping into the red. The bulls are saying "no, don't let this turn into a key reversal day!" They better get some buying going and quick.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 12:36:31 PM

Look at the TICKS showing the buyers coming back. Link

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 12:35:26 PM

Let's hope we don't have any buy programs to turn this around. The market and the bulls need this. Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 12:34:14 PM

That 30-second commute is great isn't it Jane?

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 12:32:36 PM

Makes me want to take my bat and ball and go home. Heh I am home.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 12:30:39 PM

I don't like it when the internals lie.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 12:30:20 PM

Internals have been lying to me all day today.

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 12:29:02 PM

Hmm, this drop is getting a little more than it should if there are going to be new highs. SPX 1499 is key for the bulls to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:27:25 PM

What a morning!

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 12:27:21 PM

There's another Fib projection to keep in mind for SPX--1522, assuming we get another push higher. For the move up from March 14th, that's the level where the 5th wave would equal 62% of the 1st wave. The August 2000 high was 1530 and it closed at 1520. The March 2000 closing high was 1527 so there will definitely be some resistance around the 1520 area if it gets there. Link

Whether it can get there, now or after a pullback (green wave count), is unknown but it's a level to keep in mind. The way this pattern is playing out I'm liking the bearish (dark red) count more and more--the current leg up looks good for finishing the 5th wave of the rally. But again, the next drop will provide us the clues as to which one it will be. SPX 1477 is the first key downside level.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:26:23 PM

Swing trade bullish stopped alert ... traders should be stopped on the 1/4 position in the US Oil Fund (USO) $48.70 -1.17% ... at $48.80.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:24:36 PM

YM 13,270

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:23:48 PM

YM short cover alert here at 13,275

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:22:03 PM

YM short lower stop alert ... to break even.

YM 13,280

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:18:24 PM

BIX.X 402.00 +0.19% ... came fractions within my WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:17:04 PM

DJ- Money Flow Table found at this Link ... potential idea generator.

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 12:16:55 PM

SPX should hold above 1505 if there's more upside to come.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 12:14:53 PM

These are telling me any trade will not have follow through. This is reinforced by the fact that earlier the internals were very bullish and the upside did not have follow through. Link

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 12:10:48 PM

Here is the Smith Open Number system charts. If you want to go short, according to these charts, you should be using ER as your vehicle. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:07:37 PM

Apex Silver Mines (SIL) alert $17.25 +12.35% ... on fire!

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 12:06:48 PM

Iran's Foreign Minister Boycotts Diplomatic Dinner, Avoiding US's Rice

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 11:59:43 AM

YM Short alert ... here at 13,301. Stop 13,318, target 13,270

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 11:52:06 AM

McMillan's weekly update - The stock market just keeps rolling along. There is probably a very good reason why the Dow has been up 22 of the last 25 days -- and other broad market indices have followed suit. The reason is that there is still a significant portion of the investment community who is under-invested (and there may even be some shorts left), from that swift correction we had at the end of February.

$SPX has finally crossed above the 1500 level for the first time in over 6 years, and it appears inevitable that it will challenge its all-time highs. The intraday high is 1552 and the closing high is 1527 -- both set on the same day, March 24th, 2000. By the way, you can tell how volatile the market was back then, by the fact that the high and the close for $SPX were 25 points apart on that day. The support line for $SPX is the trend line connecting the bottoms since March. Ironically, that trend line is very closely following the 20-day moving average. Currently, it's at about 1475. So any correction back to that level would just be normal.

The equity-only put-call ratios continue to plummet, which is bullish. Of course, they are now reaching the lower regions of their charts and -- while we would only consider them bearish if they roll over and begin to trend higher -- that makes them overbought. This past week's action has seen a huge influx of call volume, which is reflected in the fact that the ratios have fallen at an even faster pace.

Market breadth has been perhaps the weakest indicator. Oh, sure, breadth is strong on big up days like yesterday. But, on many of the slower-paced days, we've seen declines outnumber advances, even though the Dow and $SPX are higher. That is usually a sign of negative divergence, but it hasn't been -- so far -- for this particular market.

Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have been conducive to a bull market as well. $VIX has crept higher -- toying with the 14 level at one point. However, it hasn't really established an uptrend, something which would be more bearish. In fact, what we may be seeing -- although it's too early to tell for sure -- is a rising $VIX in a rising market. That's what we had back in the 1990's.

In summary, we remain intermediate-term bullish, while acknowledging that short-lived corrections are possible. We have often compared the current market to that of 1995-96. So far, it is forming a very comparable pattern. We all know what happened after that skyrocketing prices. Could it happen again so soon after the bubble of the 1990's? Anything is possible.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 11:51:18 AM

BOC's Dodge: Sees No Cause For C$ Intervention Yet

DJ (partial) - The Bank of Canada has had no second thoughts about its 1998 decision to abandon intervention in currency markets, despite recent market volatility and the sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said Friday.

Responding to audience questions following a speech to a financial conference in Montreal, Dodge said the Bank is confident it made the right decision in late 1998 when it abandoned a longstanding policy to smooth out day-to-day fluctuations in the Canadian dollar's value by means of direct intervention in currency markets.

"There's no question it was the right decision to make," Dodge said.

He added that it can be dangerous if central banks step in and try to somehow mitigate daily volatility in the value of their currency.

"There's huge dangers in trying to lean against the trend," Dodge said, adding that "there's absolutely no thought on our part of reversing (the 1998) decision."

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 11:46:50 AM

EIA: US Feb Oil Use Revised -2% Vs Estimate; +4.7% On Year

DJ- U.S. oil demand set a record in February at 21.271 million barrels a day, a jump of 4.7% from a year ago, but was 2% lower than preliminary estimates, the federal Energy Information Administration said Friday.

Demand in the world's biggest oil consumer was the most in any month since August 2006 and was a 3.5% rise from January, EIA data show.

Gasoline demand was revised down 1.3% from initial estimates, but, at 9.025 million barrels a day, the revised figure is a record for February and represents a 2.1% growth rate from a year ago. Gasoline demand was the highest for a month since December and was up 1.5% from January.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 11:41:34 AM

DJ- Precious Metals Top Stories

Peru's Yanacocha Gold Mine Union To Strike - Union Official

Protesters Block Road To Centerra's Kyrgyz Mine

Low Supplies, Safe Haven Demand To Support Gold - Randgold

AngloGold: Strong '07 Gold Demand As Consumers Accept Prices

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 11:32:20 AM

It would be too easy for the bears if we just fail here. A pullback followed by another push higher should thoroughly dash their hopes and get them to quit trying the short side. Only then will this market be finished. This morning's high left no short term bearish divergences and therefore I'm still leaning towards new highs.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 11:29:08 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 11:15:30 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 11:02:23 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 10:56:22 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/3 position (100 shares for 10K=Full) in shares of Dynamic Materials (BOOM) at the offer of $34.40. Stop goes $32.00, target $38.50.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 10:54:48 AM

Internals are very bullish but price is just not cooperating today. This is really weird. Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 10:49:51 AM

The daily chart shows why chasing this higher could be risky. The top of its parallel up-channel from last summer, where price was held down from November to February, is where price is currently pushing up through. We either have an honest-to-goodness breakout in progress (in which case we should look for an explosion higher to get that all-time high) or else this is an over-throw for the final 5th wave up. Link

On a daily chart basis, a break above 1498 put us on the bullish price path and that level now is a key level for the downside--a break below could say a top is in place after an over-throw. The only question after that would be whether we're going to get just another corrective pullback (shown in green) or a stronger drop (dark red).

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 10:42:14 AM

In the short term SPX chart that I've been showing the past couple of days, I've been tracking the wave count for the move up from Tuesday and here's an updated count: Link

The 4th wave correction in this rally was the pullback to Wednesday afternoon's close and from there I had expected another small move higher to finish the 5th wave and then turn back down. It now appears that 5th wave is extending and subdividing further into its own, and larger, 5-wave move. It's a bit of a guess here since it appears this 5th wave is turning into an ascending wedge (based on the internal 3-wave moves).

So, if this is correct then we'll need a choppy shallow pullback followed by another push higher and that's when the 1517 area could get tagged. This projection says we should expect to continue rallying higher today. One thing to note on the Fib projection I show is a projection for the 5th wave based on the move for waves 1 through 3. The first (62%) is at 1508.55 and has been exceeded. The 2nd (100%) is at 1517.08 and is a potential upside target from here.

I'd like to see the wave count finish this way to add confidence in shorting the high but understand the risk here--this looks clearly to be in an ending pattern. A break back below 1499 would confirm the rally is finished. Until then the trend is still up, up and away.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 10:29:10 AM

Broker/Dealer (XBD.X) alert! 258.29 +1.06% ... challenges its all-time closing high!

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 10:29:05 AM

SPX is now pressing up against the top of its ascending wedge pattern for the rally off the March low (near 1510). It could give us an over-throw (how high?) but be careful here if long.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 10:26:58 AM

VIX.X 12.61 -3.66%...

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 10:26:42 AM

PTR-FD exhausted at the $10.00 offer ... PTR $128.43.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 10:08:49 AM

PTR's DAILY R2 right in here at $127.72.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 10:06:41 AM

If not filled on the PTR-FD (though high has been $11.70), I'd go bid $9.20.

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 10:02:08 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 9:47:28 AM

NYSE is making its intentions known--good pop up this morning and still going higher. It's now back up to its broken uptrend line from July which is the line that price has been walking up underneath since mid April. As shown on this daily chart, upside potential is 9867 (printing 9786 here) where there's a 162% projection from the Feb-Mar decline. But this is its 5th wave up and therefore you have to be ready for a reversal at any time. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 9:39:40 AM

Swing trade bull call exit/target alert ... with PetroChina (PTR) $128.07, exit the PTR June $120 Calls (PTR-FD) for $10.00

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 9:39:16 AM

The bulls will definitely want to see any gap closes this morning hold. The bears of course would love nothing better than to see a gap up turn into a down day in order to create a key reversal day. The only thing better in their books would be a close below last Friday's close in order to give them a key reversal week. Both sides know what they need today and it could be an important day.

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 9:30:39 AM

The silver contract (YI) looks like it's about to retest its broken 50-dma at 13.67 (high so far this morning is 13.645).

Jeff Bailey : 5/4/2007 9:28:58 AM

Petrochina (PTR) $128.00 pre-market. This would exceed initial target for the PTR June $120 Calls (PTR-FD) should it hold at the cash open.

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 9:28:19 AM

This morning's bounce in the euro (drop in the US dollar) has taken it up to the top of its new down-channel and has since pulled back. So far it looks like a correction to the start of its decline (and a bounce in the dollar to correct the start of its rally).

Gold has bounced hard off its low and as shown on the daily chart for YG is just about to retest its broken uptrend line from March 14th, currently near 694. This makes me wonder if we're going to get a triple top in gold. It would be a good place to try shorting it again with a stop at a new high. Link

Keene Little : 5/4/2007 9:19:13 AM

The initial reaction was a spike up in equity futures to the slower jobs growth number, lower average workweek and higher wage inflation than the Feds wants. From a logical perspective this of course makes no sense.

But don't confuse an emotional market in a blow-off mood with logic. Bonds initially tanked on the news (reacting to the higher inflation data) but have sinced reversed and they're rallying. With slower job growth the bond traders are probably figuring the Fed's hands are tied as far as trying to raise rates. Equities also reversed and gave up their initial spike but still holding onto the overnight gains.

The top trend line for the SPX's pattern is near 1510, about 8 points above yesterday's close. With ES up 5.50 here, and spiking above the equivalent level, that looks doable from here. Watch that level for a possible reversal if tagged.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 9:07:10 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Options-trading firm Interactive Brokers Group Inc. raised $1.2 billion in its stock market debut Friday as the richest IPO so far in 2007, even as movie theater chain AMC scrapped its deal in the face of downward price pressure.

Tapping to a merger mania among exchange firms and fatter profits in the trading business, Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) priced 40 million shares at $30.01 each through an online auction handled by banker W.R. Hambrecht.

The pricing came in at the high end of the expected range of $27 to $31 a share, and the size of the offering was boosted from 34.5 million shares earlier in the week.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 8:59:19 AM

Here is a look at the Wilshire 5000, what many consider the entire market. The longer this rally goes on the more pain we will endure once a retracement happens and all the buyers head for the door at the same time. We are getting to the point that just one little misstep and we will take a healthy correction that may happen a lot faster than anyone wants. Link

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 8:52:15 AM

Yesterday we had a total disconnect between Gold and the US$, both rallied. It happens sometimes but you know that it will not last and that it will correct and the relationship will right itself. Unfortunately though you just don't know how it will correct itself, Gold down and $ up or the vice versa. I kind of thought Oil was giving me hint in that it was falling and that Gold would follow it but that was not the case. Link

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 8:45:14 AM

My goodness gracious (I have been saying that a lot lately). How much longer can this go on. All equity markets broke their PDHs even though US job growth slowed. Obviously traders are looking at this as inflation has been nipped in the bud.

Classic example of when bad news is good news. Link

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 8:35:01 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. job growth slowed in April to 88,000 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5%, the Labor Department said Friday.

In April, average hourly wages increased 2 cents or 0.2%, to $17.25. Average wages rose 3.7% in the 12 months ended in April.

The average workweek fell to 33.8 hours from 33.9 hours.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were calling for payrolls to rise by 100,000, for the jobless rate to tick up to 4.5%, for average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% and for the workweek to hold steady at 33.9 hours.

Jane Fox : 5/4/2007 8:20:03 AM

Dateline WSJ - LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Yahoo shares rallied 15% in pre-open trading on Friday after a newspaper report that Microsoft may try to buy the Internet search firm after being beaten to other deals by Google Inc.

Shares of Yahoo (YHOO) jumped 15% in trading ahead of the bell on volume of over 378,000 after The New York Post reported that Microsoft (MSFT) may want to buy the firm in what could be a $50 billion deal. Shares of Microsoft slipped 0.9% in pre-open trade.

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