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Keene Little : 5/7/2007 11:24:17 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

End of day roadmaps, hourly. Internal breadth measurements continue to weaken and suggest the rally is simply pooping out. But you can't argue with price so don't--wait for some breaks of uptrend lines and key levels.
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/7/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Keene Little : 5/7/2007 5:33:45 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 5:29:36 PM

June Unleaded (rb07m) settled down $0.0268, or -1.21% at $2.1896.

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 5:28:31 PM

June Crude Oil (cl07m) settled down $0.46, or -0.74% at $61.47. (Losing streak extends to 6 sessions)

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 5:22:46 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 4:41:40 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratio above 10-day NH/NL ratio, but didn't quite get the needed 72.0% reading to reverse into X.

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 4:32:15 PM

GOOG is working very hard to hold above its uptrend line from August 2004, closing right on it today. A break below 462 would confirm the break of the trend line. Until then the key levels remain 462 and 485. Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 4:27:32 PM

CME broke and closed below 510, a key level for the down side. It also broke below the bottom of the previous hammer on May 1st, usually a bearish signal. It left a long-legged doji today which could be just indecision or the start of a reversal pattern (back to the upside). We'll know more tomorrow. If the bearish break is real then there are a couple of internal Fib projections pointing to the 475-479 area for a downside target. I put in a parallel line off the downtrend line to show a parallel down-channel, support by which is also in the same area. Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 4:19:46 PM

Jane, I can see your link just fine (and the others). I'm on the browser version of the MM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 4:18:41 PM

Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index 200.86; Yield 5.62%

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 4:16:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 4:13:45 PM

Well at least it is not just my links that are not working.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 4:06:50 PM

I guess we have more than just the charts that are rotten, I can't get the dang images to work.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 4:05:11 PM

You know the old saying there is something rotten in Demark. Well when the AD volume and the VIX are this bullish and price is moving sideways, you know there is something rotten in Demark. Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 4:03:20 PM

With the RUT poking its head to a new high this morning it negated the possibility for the bounce to be a 2nd wave correction so now it's either all of the final 5th wave (dark red count) or just wave-a of an a-b-c for the 5th wave (green count). It looks like a large ascending wedge for the move up from March 14th hence the internal a-b-c counts for each of the 5 waves. If it continues to rally from here then the 845 area looks like a good upside target. Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 3:51:53 PM

NDX gives me the impression that it will head lower from here. If it instead turns back higher then the upper trend line just above 1920 makes for a good upside target. But first it will have to negate all those bearish divergences. Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 3:46:35 PM

The flatter consolidation today for SPX is what gives me the impression it will head higher again and if it does then the upside Fib projections at 1517 and 1522 could be the targets. But again, with the bearish divergences on just about all time frames it says be careful about the long side. Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 3:41:25 PM

On a very short term basis the DOW looks like it could use another minor high to finish the wave count from this morning's first pullback. If we get then watch for bearish divergences at that high for evidence of topping.

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 3:39:49 PM

Thanks to AA (up 8%) the DOW has been able to show stronger performance again. It was AA's turn to be anointed. The way the DOW is inching higher though is what gives it its ascending wedge look over the past couple of days, with the continuing bearish divergences that make it difficult to want to buy it. If anything I'd want to short this index here and now. Link

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 3:39:01 PM

NQ is now making new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 3:33:30 PM

Probe of Trading in Dow Jones' Options ... AP Story Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 3:23:02 PM

SPX has pulled back to the 1508 level so now it will need to rally in order to keep the bullish potential out of today's consolidation. Otherwise a break much lower would likely lead to a sharp leg down. That might only be part of a larger correction but it's something to be aware of if you're attempting a long play here.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 3:13:49 PM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The world's most celebrated investor has nothing against exchange-traded funds, but given a choice he recommended sticking to plain-vanilla and low-cost index mutual funds because the temptation to engage in potentially self-destructive trading isn't as great.

Appearing Monday morning on CNBC from Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Neb., Chairman Warren Buffett reiterated his view that for most small investors who don't have time to research individual companies, cheap index funds are the best way to invest in the stock market.

"The best way in my view is to just buy a low-cost index fund and keep buying it regularly over time, because you'll be buying into a wonderful industry, which in effect is all of American industry," Buffett told CNBC anchor Liz Claman.

"If you buy it over time, you won't buy at the bottom, but you won't buy it all at the top either," the billionaire investor said.

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 3:12:20 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 3:02:15 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 2:57:24 PM

S&P Banking Index (BIX.X) ... 60-minute interval with MONTHLY (pink) and WEEKLY (blue) retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 2:36:33 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 404.41 +0.53% ... FOMC on Wednesday. BIX.X now edging above key 400.00 psychological resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 2:33:55 PM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) ... 60-minute interval chart with MONTHLY (pink) and WEEKLY (blue) pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 2:16:46 PM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) ... Daily interval bar chart with MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 2:07:31 PM

Other than an expectation for the current consolidation to lead higher again, there's less than nothing here to trade. One more trip down near SPX 1508 could set up a long play with a relatively tight stop. If it breaks down instead it could go quick (since a lot of traders are probably looking at this thinking the same thing about it going up again). Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 2:04:08 PM

Sector Status Change ... At the conclusion of Friday's trade, Dorsey/Wright's INternET bullish % achieved "bull confirmed" after reversing up to "bull alert" status.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 2:03:33 PM

AD volume to new daily highs and I would not be short here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 1:27:37 PM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 1:16:57 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 1:07:12 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 12:50:33 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures advanced on Monday and are poised to mark a three-session win as the dollar fell against other major currencies and underpinned demand for the precious metal.

For this week, "it's all a currency play," said Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard. "With the Europeans and Asian central banks continuing to raise rates while the Fed is in no position to do the same," gold and, to a smaller extent, silver are "becoming great currency plays."

Gold for June delivery gained $1.50 to $691.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The strength comes on the heels of a $14.60 gain in the past two trading sessions

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 12:50:00 PM

Here is the overnight range. NQ has not yet traded outside its overnight range. Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 12:49:46 PM

Here's the NYSE 15-min chart showing a wave count for the move up from last Tuesday, May 1st, which is the 5th wave on the daily chart posted earlier. The move up from this morning's quick pullback is now looking like either part of a larger correction (the way it's choppy higher with lack of strength in the move) or it's an ending pattern to finish off the rally. The wave count here says this could be done. But it takes a break below Friday's low to confirm it. Link

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 12:46:03 PM

Here is an updated jtHMA spreadsheet. Nothing has changed drastically. I am still bullish the equity markets, Gold and Natural Gas. Netural on crude and bearish the US$. Link

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 12:38:10 PM

These are certainly telling me we are going higher today. I don't know for how long but the odds are we go higher and not lower. Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 12:27:14 PM

I had shown this NYSE daily chart early last week and showed the projection for a 5th wave up to complete its rally from March 14th. It's pretty clear that's what we're getting now: Link

Assuming the rally will push a little higher there are two Fibs I'll be watching carefully. The first is a 162% projection of the Feb-Mar decline and that's at 9866. The next one is where the 5th wave = 62% of the 1st wave which is at 9920. Since the 1st and 3rd waves were nearly equal it would be common for the 5th wave to be the shortest.

As I note on the chart, this being the 5th wave, the risk for the long side is that this could top out at any time. The daily oscillators, including the negative divergence, suggest caution at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 12:16:35 PM

Alcan (AL) alert! $80.89 +32.55% ... has achieved/exceeded its bullish vertical count of $78.00.

This merger will likely face anti-trust scrutiny. I'd strongly suggest those long AL look to take profits.

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 12:16:10 PM

For some reason INTC has struggled with the $22 level over time and that's currently where it's been trading the past 2 weeks. It's also being held down by its downtrend line from January 2004. If it manages to break resistance here it would likely make it up to $23 which is the bottom of its big gap down on January 18, 2006. It would have to rally up near 25.50 to close its gap. But before reaching $23 INTC will probably find resistance near $22.50 which was the November high. The daily oscillators could reverse back up but it's looking weak here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 12:13:33 PM

Alcoa Makes Hostile $27B Offer for Alcan ... AP Story Link

AA $37.98 +6.50% ...

AL $80.89 +32.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 12:10:19 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Raising stops for CAL and BOOM.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 12:05:46 PM

Macd has not been able to help too much today. Just not a lot happening out there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 12:03:32 PM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert on the 1/3 position in shares of Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $34.74 +1.87% ... to $33.40.

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 12:01:00 PM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert on the 1/3 position in shares of Continental Airlines (CAL) $39.21 +0.87% ... to $37.40.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 11:58:17 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Aecom Tech plans to raise $700 million in a busy week for initial public offerings, after the Los Angeles-based engineering and architecture firm reported a nearly 80% jump in first-quarter net income.

Also this week, drug development firm Biodel Inc. plans to offer 5 million shares at $14 to $16 each in a bid to raise $75 million.

JMP Group, a 200-employee investment bank, plans to offer 7.9 million shares at $10.50 to $12.50 each in a bid to raise about $91 million

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 11:53:59 AM

11:50 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 11:52:45 AM

Trading volume is running slightly lower than Friday's. It's a quiet day with the market apparently on hold but for what? Surely not for the FOMC policy statement on Wednesday. If that's the case, we'll need to find something to do besides watch paint dry.

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 11:52:27 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: It would take a closing session measure of 72.0% for the NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse up 3-boxes.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 11:30:29 AM

PARIS (MarketWatch) -- French President-elect Nicolas Sarkozy plans to waste no time in pushing through a first package of pro-market, anti-crime reforms before the summer and is likely to nominate ally Francois Fillon as his prime minister later this month.

Sarkozy, 52, of the ruling conservative UMP (Union pour le Mouvement Populaire) party won Sunday's second and decisive round of the elections with 53% of the vote, according to the final results released by the French Interior Ministry on Monday morning

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 11:29:07 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Further declines in crude-oil prices and a couple of downgrades in the oil services business kept the lid on energy stocks early Monday.

After skidding lower at the open, most of the sector managed to pull itself back up to unchanged levels about an hour into the trading day. But underlying oil prices remained a hurdle.

Crude oil for June delivery was trading 62 cents lower on the New York Mercantile Exchange at $61.30 a barrel, feeling the effects of a gradual rise in supplies worldwide.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 11:23:35 AM

Let me rephrase that, the odds are it will move higher.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 11:23:18 AM

VIX hovering at daily lows tells me ES will move higher. Not sure when though. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 5/7/2007 11:06:26 AM

The Yen is up and it is very suprising equities are up. My guess is they are buying the Yen as a hedge and holding on to US stocks.

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 10:54:49 AM

Even the currencies and the metals seem to be on hold this morning. Just not much happening here.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 10:50:53 AM

The problem at the CME has been clearaed up.

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 10:40:56 AM

I agree with Marc--I could make an argument for either direction from here and that tells me to be aware of potential chop and whipsaw. Need to wait until we get a better setup.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/7/2007 10:37:13 AM

NDX holds April high (1896.70) and the DOW finds resistance at 13300. Chop until one of those breaks.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/7/2007 10:30:40 AM

Still a wall of worry out there. The day CBS MW gets all bullish is when I will go all in short. Watch YM 13316, 61.8% Friday. Lots of chop, but DOW 13300 seems to be resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 10:18:39 AM

I'm having some QCharts problems this morning and can't keep a connection to their server. Re-downloading and hope to be back up and running soon.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 10:06:23 AM

The CME is reporting technical issues with some data channels and users. Our Data Center operations team is investigating the issue with the CME. More information will follow when it is available

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 10:04:53 AM

As long as we see consolidation near the highs we should expect higher still. It now takes a break below Friday's low to suggest something more bearish has started.

Jeff Bailey : 5/7/2007 10:03:28 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 9:44:39 AM

It doesn't look like the market has any intention of going down yet. The recent pattern for SPX has the potential to be a broadening top but even that pattern could have it extending up towards a Fib projection near 1517. That would give us a +100 day for the DOW. If this broadening top is true it's a bearish pattern which is supported by bearish divergences, but that hasn't meant a whole lot to this market. Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 9:38:50 AM

It's possible the DOW, which is making new all-time highs, may be finishing up a small ascending wedge. If true it should fail around this 13300 area (maybe a little throw-over). Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 9:26:33 AM

A last minute buy program near the close on Friday saved several indices from bearish candlestick patterns and kept them above support. A break below SPX 1502 should usher in more selling. If the pullback is going to be just a correction to the rally then watch for support around 1495-1498. Link

Keene Little : 5/7/2007 9:21:36 AM

Friday afternoon's bounce off the spike down looks like a bear flag of sorts. It looks like a correction to that quick drop. Therefore any early bounce this morning should be a good setup to get short. Of course keep in mind that shorting this market has been less than easy lately so continued caution is required and keep your stops tight.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 9:09:34 AM

I heard some jabbering about the volume over the weekend because it was not going up as the price was but if you take a step back you will see run from last July to now was not on increasing volume and that was a very sustable rally.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 9:04:46 AM

Here is the S&P cash index and it needs to retrace back to its 50EMA as well and that is a retracement back to 1460. That is a 40 point drop but it is very much needed. Link

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 8:59:23 AM

The Russell 2000 cash index is hitting some major resistance and the MACD is hitting the saem resistance. This is a bullish chart but it, like all the rest, need to take a rest. I think a retracement back to the gold 50EMA would be very healthy. Link

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 8:52:33 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- If you weren't impressed with the economy's performance in the first quarter, with the slowest growth rate in four years, then you might want to just skip the second quarter.

Data to be released over the next week will bring a soft second quarter into focus. Economists are looking for weaker consumer spending to set the tone for the next three months. You know it will be a bad week when the only bright spot is that taxpayers paid a ton of taxes this month.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are expecting a 0.3% gain in April retail sales, down from a 0.7% rise in March. The retail sales report will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Friday.

"I don't expect it will be a vigorous report," said Mike Moran, economist at Daiwa Securities America.

And the headline could even be overstated because a lot of the spending is going to stem from higher prices at the pump.

"It will be less impressive that it appears on the surface," Moran said.

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 8:48:50 AM

Gold is ralling as the US $ falls, just the way it should be. Link

Jane Fox : 5/7/2007 8:32:55 AM

Good morning everyone and welcome to another week of trading with Mr. Market. Overnight the equity markets traded sideways telling not giving us a lot to work with. ER did break its PDH but it closed very near its PDH as well. I suspect the open will see and AD line and volume very close to 0. Link

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