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Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2007 12:57:15 AM

Good gravy!

Fannie Mae (FNM) $62.83 Link ... that's a 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2007 12:55:14 AM

Freddie Mac (FRE) $67.44 Link ... Pays a decent dividend, so StockCharts.com's charts not entirely accurate. Stock traded as high as $71.92 back in November.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2007 12:51:05 AM

Hey ... today's 143.2 for the MBA's Govt. Index is the highest since 4/4/07 report, and highest since I started tracking the MBA's data again back in September.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2007 12:11:23 AM

Dorsey's OTC Bullish % still in a column of "O," but threatens to reverse up at 56%. Edged up 0.14% today to 55.12%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/10/2007 12:06:45 AM

03/21/07 to 05/09/07 Sector Bull Curve which would span last two FOMC statements at this Link

BPSPX is the 500 stocks of the S&P 500.

NYSE is the more than 3,000 stocks listed on the NYSE.

OTC is Over The Counter (or Nasdaq) and also very broad more than 3,000.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 11:49:25 PM

World Bullish % Bell Curve at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 11:43:57 PM

Sector Status Change ... BUSIness Products reversed back up to "bear correction" from "bear confirmed." Currently 64.07%. Needs 68% for "bull confirmed."

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 11:36:10 PM

For a while I've been carrying some widely differing wave counts even on the shorter term charts and was waiting for price to confirm which count (bullish or bearish) was winning the day. Needless to say the bullish wave count kept winning as price pushed ever higher. But I'm noticing that my bullish and bearish counts are starting to come together and that in itself could be very telling.

For example, on this SPX 120-min chart I've got an ascending wedge pattern drawn and it has the bearish divergences to go with it. Because it's a triangle pattern each of the 5 waves will be a 3-wave move (or something a little more complex as wave-3 in this pattern is) and that means the final 5th wave will also be a 3-wave move, which today's rally confirmed. Link

The 5th wave in this wedge will equal 62% of the 1st wave (common Fib relationship in a wedge pattern) at SPX 1522.73. While it's possible today's high completed the rally (dark red count), I'd prefer to see SPX push up closer to the 1522 level. For this 5th wave up, which will be a 3-wave move, the 2nd leg up will be equal to 62% of the 1st leg at 1521.41. This gives us some good correlation around the 1522 area and the top of the wedge. A little throw-over followed by a drop back inside the pattern would be a picture perfect short play setup.

As I discussed in tonight's Wrap, particularly with the DOW and its component stocks, things are really coming together to call a high very soon. Either that or stand back for an explosive move higher. First we'll try a short play soon and if that doesn't work we'll get long and enjoy that ride instead.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 11:31:42 PM

CAT-HM's currently bid/ask $11.05 x $11.10.

Took profit "too soon" if there is such a thing on 4/23/07 @ $9.45 ($72.85) and 05/01/07 @ $9.70 ($73.11).

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 11:28:04 PM

Chart of CAT from 04/27/07 Market Monitor at this Link when it was at the "top" of its 10-week trading band. Another $0.25 to go before pullback for new bull entry?

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 11:20:14 PM

I agree Keene. INDU not just starting to break out. Up 550 points from the break. Top of 10-week trading band and may be ready to rest.

50-point box Link

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 11:12:15 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/9/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/9/2007 9:45:16 PM


Keene Little : 5/9/2007 9:15:45 PM

I usually focus on the indices and don't pay too much attention to individual stocks but having just reviewed the DOW stocks, for which I provided charts and commentary in tonight's Market Wrap, I can say that without a doubt we should be much closer to a top than a breakout, or even a muddle higher for another couple of weeks. It's even possible to call today's rally the end of it.

But another day or two or three could finish off the patterns I see in the DOW's heavy weights and for that reason we could see the DOW pushed a little higher. I've got some good targets for the DOW between here and 13450 area so maybe another 100 points out of the DOW. It was an interesting review of the component stocks and it reinforces my view that we're about ready to stick a fork in it.

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 9:03:34 PM

Thanks Marc. I'll do my best as promised...

Marc Eckelberry : 5/9/2007 8:59:17 PM

Way to go Dan. I am a proud sponsor of having you on the monitor and I wish you all the best.

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 8:35:56 PM

For those of you with some extra capital hanging around, take a look at the July SPY 157/159 bear call spread for 40-50 cents. It's 25% on your money and a 75.3% chance of profitablity of expiring worthless. I think we peak in June, so take your time, but keep an eye on it. If the trade goes against us, we can either roll or butterfly out of it to keep the trade profitable. Anyway, I like the odds and the risk/reward ratio for this spread. As always, don't overtrade the postion and exercise proper risk management. I'll coach you along if we get filled. My wife is yelling at me to help with our newborn, so I better get going. See you all in the morning and it's been a pleasure posting today. Have a great evening.

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 8:15:22 PM

With the SPX closing at new highs, there's the possibility the move could continue. With the different warnings (divergences) we have seen, I think a signal that the move is ending and a reversal is developing would be a move down to 1504-1505 area with a confirmation with a move below 1500. A break of 1500, would set up a low risk (imo) call spread/short swing trade opportunity. Keep on your toes because the move will likely happen when you least expect it. These parabolic moves tend to reverse out of nowhere, so keep an eye on these levels if broken.

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 7:16:33 PM

S&P 500 up 6 of the past 7 days.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 6:30:50 PM

Thanks Jeff (5:36), I'll take a look.

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 6:49:50 PM

No pressure at all Jim. Like I had mentioned to you before, pressure is being long 1/3 of the total open interest in an illiquid market and sweating every tick until contract expiration. Pressure is losing $4.3 million in a single month (July 2003) and having the guts to turn it around and make back my all of my losses and gain 10.9 million in May 2004. I will do my best to make my trades profitable to all readers. Just keep in mind folks that my risk tolerance is MUCH higher than most and the reason I believe I've been successful at this game for 13 years now. I get my butt kicked every now and then like everybody else who trades though! Do what fits your own personal circumstances. That's how I started. Risk management, patience, and discipline are the keys. Don't let a trade get away from you. I know from experience. It hurts.

Jim Brown : 5/9/2007 6:04:47 PM

Please welcome Dan Blaise to the Market Monitor. Dan will be offering some new option strategies in the Monitor in the near future

Dan is a retired fund manager who made his fortune trading milk, lean hogs and live cattle. After several years of strong returns he closed his fund, cashed out and retired at the age of 32 to move back home to spend time with his aging grandparents and 3 young sons. He retained his passion to trade the stocks and commodity markets as a lifetime hobby.

Please join me in welcoming Dan to the monitor and I am sure we will all profit from his experience. (no pressure Dan)

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 5:36:16 PM

Keene! Just seeing your email regarding bullishness from options research.

Several Dow Indu components in there (05:26:03) that might be of help to you.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 5:33:04 PM

VIX June $20 Call (VIX-FD) were UpTick/DnTick Vol of 2,700:3,950.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 5:30:02 PM

QCharts has the UpTick/DnTick Vol for the DJ May $50 Puts (DJ-QJ) as 61:14.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 5:26:03 PM

DJ Unusual Put/Call Option Activity at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 5:07:17 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 4:47:12 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 4:19:05 PM

Dow Jones shares fall after Murdoch remarks ... Reuters Story Link

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 3:55:30 PM

I'm showing the ISE at 172 as of 3:30EST. Not at 200 yet, where we should all get beared up, but steadily climbing.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 3:51:52 PM

Sentiment data update from Scott:

Thee ISEE web-site went crazy. It is showing data from 10/5/2006 only right now. Earlier it was for today and the last reading was 186, but I don't know if the data earlier is reliable. Just thought I would let you know. The CBOE put/call reading at .45 is reliable though.

And that put/call ratio shows a high level of calls in relation to puts which is bearish from a contrarian perspective. Thanks Scott.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 3:32:03 PM

Think the DOW can get about 100 points higher? 13453 is where it would tag a Fib projection for the 5th wave of the rally from October 2005 to be equal to the 1st wave. As the weekly oscillators are back into overbought (from March's oversold), hitting that Fib number would really be ideal. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 3:30:13 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in eBay.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 3:29:50 PM

Bullish swing trade call option alert for one (1) of the eBay EBAY Jul $35 Calls (XBA-GG) at the offer of $2.00.

EBAY $34.97 +1.86%.

No stop for now, target $42.

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 3:27:23 PM

We're both right Keene. Price is moving higher, but we both believe a pullback is right around the corner.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 3:25:13 PM

The little pullback here is looking like a bull flag so a rally into the close is possible from here.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 3:23:55 PM

You've been smarter than I Dan. I've had a bearish bias based on a slew of indicators and it's not been an easy time being a bear when the market simply ignores weakening volume and internals. But as I review weekly charts (I'm going to be doing a review of weekly charts and focusing on the DOW and some of its stocks in tonight's Wrap) I'm getting a strong sense that we're close to putting a period on this rally.

But obviously you can't argue with the trend and I'm not. I just keep looking for a logical place to try the next short play. While the DOW did not make it up to the top of its little ascending wedge (near 13380) it does continue to find resistance at the top of its parallel up-channel for price action since the March low (13360 today).

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 3:19:07 PM

VIX.X 12.82 ... sits on MONTHLY 61.8% 12.77, which has marked low measures for May. So far ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 3:17:28 PM

"Bad tick" earlier in the SPY to ($152.82 see Friday's option observations) ... Current Session high for SPY has been $151.50

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 3:15:03 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 3:17:14 PM

Keene, I've been bullish for the last few months, but I do think we are overdue for a retracement near term. I'm starting to average in slowly to a few YM shorts up here.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 3:11:41 PM

I completely agree Dan (2:56). The thing that I have to keep reminding myself is that people were saying the exact same thing about the Nasdaq in July 1999 as the new highs were being met with bearish divergences after the very strong rally off the October 1998 low. It was also "slightly extended" at that time.

That was when the Naz was trading just above 2500. From there it tacked on another 1500 points in 5 months and doubled in 7 months. I don't think we'll see the same thing in the SPX since that was a unique index getting all the "new paradigm" attention but it does show the power of momentum and a truly parabolic blow-off top. There were a lot of shorts smoked out of their holes on that one.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 3:02:12 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 2:56:04 PM

We're overextended now big time. If they take us up into the end of the week, my guess is that we see our long needed retracement during opex next week. Check out how far we're extended over just our 5dma on YM. Crazy. Parabolic moves never end well.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 2:55:56 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $36.15 +2.64% Link ... trade at $36 gets 3-box reversal higher.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 2:54:36 PM

A little levity (thanks Joe):

I am sure the police will show up soon as my neighbors have probably notified them of the domestic dispute that I am having with my computer screen right now....

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 2:54:32 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) alert! 835.32 +0.53% ... reclaims MONTHLY R1.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 2:52:32 PM

Nice little rally underway here. The top of the little ascending wedge that I showed earlier for the DOW ( Link ) is near 13380 so any rally up to that level, or just beyond, could be the completion of its rally so continue to exercise caution about the long side here and you might want to think about testing the short side (risky in this environment but one of these days it'll work).

Tab Gilles : 5/9/2007 2:33:56 PM

EIA Weekly Report Link

Tab Gilles : 5/9/2007 2:31:28 PM

Federal Reserve Release Date: May 9, 2007

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Economic growth slowed in the first part of this year and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.

Core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Cathy E. Minehan; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 2:28:41 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 405.96 +0.28% ... "in the zone" ... WEEKLY R1/MONTHLY R1.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 2:27:49 PM

After the defibrillator shock (and the down-up-down price reaction) I wouldn't be surprised to see the oscilloscope pattern die off into a flat line for the rest of the afternoon and close flat.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 2:26:58 PM

FOMC March 21, 2007 Statement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 2:26:13 PM

FOMC Statement at this Link

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 2:21:27 PM

Never ceases to amaze me how much of a stop run they make after the FOMC announcement and then reverse it. What we don't know is whether this spike back up is also a stop run. Let the dust settle here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 2:18:21 PM

02:16 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 2:15:22 PM

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged at 5.25%

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 2:11:08 PM

Yep, I agree Keene. Protect your capital around this mess that's coming. Don't let a trade go too far against you. Better to be quick on the button than be sorry later.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 2:06:36 PM

As the commercial asks, "are you ready for some football?" Watch the cha-cha-cha around the FOMC announcement and don't get whipsawwed.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 2:05:31 PM

If you're long the semis it's time to button up your stops. The rally off the March low is now a 5-wave move and met the Fib projection where the 5th wave = the 1st wave (37.99). Today's high so far, just made, is 38.01. While there are higher Fib targets understand that the minimum price projection and EW pattern have now been met (and bearish divergence at this new high is reason to be cautious as well). Link

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 2:01:34 PM

Thanks guys. I'll do my best to try and type and trade at the same time!! hah. It's harder than it looks.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 2:00:39 PM

Hello Dan!

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 2:00:18 PM

Welcome to the Monitor Dan! Glad to have your commentary.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 1:52:52 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 407.40 +0.63% ... buyers look to leverage MONTHLY R1.

Dan Blaise : 5/9/2007 1:50:37 PM

Hello all! I think I've finally got my tech issues fixed with the Monitor. I wanted to point out for those of you that are thinking we may get a pop higher after the fed announcement that YM Weekly R1 is at 13420. Daily R1 got hit over lunch at 13378 (high was 13382), so that may be all we get. I'm looking for a pop higher myself and then a sell-off, but remember the trend is up. Shorting is dangerous, but beware of where resistance is during the chaos after the announcement.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 1:43:53 PM

Approximate futures premium over cash (June futures):

YM -- +37
ES -- +5.00
NQ -- +8.75
ER -- +2.6

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 1:41:40 PM

Question for our readers (from another reader)--has anyone tried the standalone version of Market Monitor with Windows Vista? Any problems? If you'd shoot me a quick response to at Support I'll let everyone else know. Thanks.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 1:35:20 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for the 1/3 (100 shares) of Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $35.68 +1.30% ... to $34.85.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 1:33:50 PM

So we've got a big player buying VIX calls and a sentiment indicator saying the bulls are getting ahead of themselves, literally. If nothing else it certainly tells us to be careful about further upside in this market.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 1:32:46 PM

I was just looking at the ISEE sentiment data last night and didn't see anything out of the ordinary but today could be different. Thanks to Scott for sending this:

Have you seen the readings on the ISEE today?

10:30 - 319 11:30 - 240 12:30 - 229

This is the indicator Marc talks about. He said he wouldn't expect a good correction until these readings got extreme. Looking at the chart on their web-site (http://www.iseoptions.com/marketplace/statistics/sentiment_index.asp ) these numbers seem extreme. On May 3rd last year the readings hit 218 just before the correction later that month. I know these aren't closing numbers but the CBOE equity onlty put/call ratio hit .45 on Monday on a closing basis, another extreme. Liegh Stevens follows this in his Index Trader Column, as an indicator of extreme bullishness on the part of the retail investors, which is usually followed by a tradable correction within 1-5 trading days. Seems the big guys have sucked in the little guys now it will be interesting to see how much they will be made to pay.

What this tells me is be very careful about chasing any upside reaction post-FOMC.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 1:26:18 PM

Dow Jones (DJ) $51.21 -6.56% ... gets some action.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 1:22:23 PM

VIX.X 13.13 ... as unlucky as you can get.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 1:22:04 PM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,509 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 1:19:17 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 1:18:58 PM

Thanks to Joe for passing along:

Of interest from Minyanville... This VIX Futures Index June 20 call buyer just keeps getting bigger (now 105k on the day - 35k at a time). This is essentially a $4.5 million dollar lotto ticket on the market heading much lower between now and June expiration. Sell in May and go away?

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 1:02:18 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 12:54:54 PM

IBM upgraded at Goldman Sachs this morning. Citing stock buyback program.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 12:54:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 12:50:44 PM

With the longer term ascending wedge pattern on IBM, any rally above the upper trend line will need to hold above. Otherwise it will look like a throw-over finish to the pattern and a collapse back under the trend line would be a sell signal.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 12:47:43 PM

Interesting pattern on IBM today, especially considering it's the big dog of the DOW. The day is still young but so far, after gapping up this morning, the daily candlestick is a spinning top doji. If it finishes near the low for the day, or closes its gap, it would form a shooting star. It's at potential resistance by its trend line across the highs from November 2005 so either candlestick that is followed by a red one tomorrow would be a bearish reversal signal and this one could be significant. With IBM's influence on the DOW, this one will be worth watching. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 12:41:39 PM

News Corp. (NWS) $23.33 -1.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 12:40:22 PM

Swing trade SPECULATIVE put alert for one (1) of the Dow Jones DJ June $45 Puts (DJ-RI) at the offer of $1.45, LIMIT $1.50.

DJ $53.48 -2.76% ...

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 12:31:33 PM

The DOW's short term pattern gives me the impression it's forming a small ascending wedge since the May 1st low, with negative divergences (so what else is new) supporting the bearish interpretation of this pattern. This pattern suggests we could see a post-FOMC rally to give us a spike up to around 13400 which could potentially finish the rally. I could be tempted to try a short up there if it happens. The bulls are not in trouble until price breaks below 13200 and more importantly below 13K. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 12:23:18 PM

OfficeMax (OMX) $44.80 +7.46% ... higher on takeover speculation.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 12:22:01 PM

DJ- Traders say Force Majeure Called At Nigeria Brass Oil Terminal

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 12:17:20 PM

CDW Corp. Average Daily Sales +22.8% in April ... Company Press Release Link

CDWC $77.86 +6.11% Link ... Notable new 52-weeker at NASDAQ (NDX/QQQQ component)

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 12:11:42 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) alert! $37.93 +1.74% ... probes WEEKLY R1.

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 12:00:44 PM

I need to leave for the rest of the day. Will be on travel.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 11:39:56 AM

Another bearish indication is the fan lines on this same NYSE 120-min chart. Linda had done a Traders Corner article not too long ago about the use of fan lines. This is a technical indicator called the fan principal and basically you draw uptrend lines as the rally progresses (downtrend lines in a decline). When a fan line is broken you will often see price come back up for a retest of it. Link

The principal here is that a break of the 3rd trend line is usually an indication that the uptrend is failing. Whether the first uptrend line on the chart "counts" is questionable because of its steepness but if it does then NYSE has already broken, and nearly retested, its 3rd fan line. A break of the lower uptrend line, currently near 9745, would probably be good confirmation that the rally is complete (confirmed with a break of yesterday's low).

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 11:38:24 AM

VIX is saying ES will see new daily highs before it sees new daily lows. Link

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 11:37:06 AM

These are telling me there will be no followthrough on any trade. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 11:36:25 AM

NOAA names subtropical storm Anread ... 3-day cone Link

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 11:36:23 AM

These are telling me, if you are trading, you should be long and not short. Link

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 11:28:35 AM

As you can see on that NYSE chart, the loss of momentum depicted on MACD is the bearish divergence that says this rally is closer to an end than the beginning. Of course we were saying that about the rally from November to February too. And the lack of participation as shown on this advancing-declining volume continues to show a weakening in the rally. These are warning flags to be aware of while recognizing price is still bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 11:24:21 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link ... notable lack of new lows at the big board.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 11:22:59 AM

Looking at the NYSE chart, the parallel up-channel for price action since the end of March shows the potential for a rally up to 10000 by early next week if we get a post-FOMC rally. Where I've labeled the end of wave-(5), which calls the rally complete, it would then be just wave-1 of (5) and then I'd wait for the next 5-wave move up from May 1st to complete before calling another potential top. A break below 9700 would likely spell trouble for the bulls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 11:03:12 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 11:01:03 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.62 +1.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:58:48 AM

EIA: Weekly Percent Utilization of Ref. Op. Capacity rose to 89.03 from 88.25 in latest week.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:57:45 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity unchanged at 17.455 million bpd.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:54:52 AM

EIA Analysis: Barring any geopolitical, or weather events, data bearish for oil, rather "neutral" for refiners.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:51:41 AM

Continental Airlines (CAL) $38.84 +0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:49:22 AM

Valero (VLO) $73.21 -0.58% ... Biiig volume spike from $73.90-$73.00 at 10:30-35.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:47:14 AM

US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $48.11 -1.08% Link ... $0.50-box to match futures.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:45:54 AM

Mass confusion in oil pit ... strong build in inventory despite increase in refinery inputs.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:44:30 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs into Refineries up 174,000 barrels/day to 15.30 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:43:17 AM

My # Days Crude Oil Supply up to 21.99 days supply from last week's 21.68.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:42:33 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries up 137,000 barrels/day to 15.54 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:41:10 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Stockpiles down 464,000 barrels to 34.34 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:40:08 AM

EIA: SPR added 164,000 barrels to 689.47 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:38:57 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles up 1.63 million barrels to 118.76 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:37:57 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles up 1.35 million barrels to 60.86 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:36:31 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles up 386,000 barrels to 40.04 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:35:15 AM

EIA: Weekly Reformulated Gasoline Stockpiles up 419,000 barrels to 2.28 million barrels.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/9/2007 10:35:08 AM

My friend Dan Blaise, a long time subscriber, might come in and give some signals. He's a solid trader and you should enjoy his posts.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:34:17 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles up 372,000 barrels to 193.47 million barrels.

Marc Eckelberry : 5/9/2007 10:36:04 AM

If there is a post Fed sell-off, I like buying NQ 1877/1878 with a wide stop right below 1868. I won't be around for the announcement, but that is my trade this week, buying weekly S1, confluence 20 DMA on a test. 1868 is must hold for the entire rally, so adjust your stops accordingly.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:33:14 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 5.5 million barrels to 341.16 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:10:17 AM

Toll Bros. (TOL) $29.07 -0.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:09:22 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 10:07:37 AM

I think if I were long the stock market I'd rather not see a rally into FOMC. As stretched as this market is to the upside is that really what the bulls want? The FOMC will likely be just an excuse to take profits in that case. Of course if it does rally after the FOMC then can you say "blow off"? Every short out there will get blown out of the water.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:03:38 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 10:00:02 AM

Dendreon (DNDN) $7.48 -57% Link ... #1 most active

FDA seeks more data on cancer vaccine Provenge.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 9:52:47 AM

Frontier Oil Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.77 on Revenue of $1.17B

FTO $34.60 -4.60% ...

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 9:48:45 AM

IBM is the anointed DOW stock today, currently up 1.2% at 104.52, and it has the largest impact on the DOW's price so the DOW is, again, outperforming the other indices. Money running into the biggest of the blue chips still strikes me as a very defensive play--park your money where it's safer.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 9:30:46 AM

Be careful of this first move up out of the gates--it's usually the head fake move.

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 9:20:12 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Toll Brothers Inc. said Wednesday that it doesn't expect to meet its full-year profit outlook and that more stringent lending standards as a result of problems in subprime mortgages are reverberating in its own luxury-home market.

The Horsham, Pa.-based company (TOL) reported preliminary results ahead of its full financial results for the second quarter, scheduled for release on May 24. For the quarter ended April 30, Toll said home-building revenue fell 19% from a year earlier, while net signed contracts dropped 25%.

"Twenty months into this housing downturn, we continue to face difficult conditions in most of our markets," said Robert Toll, the company's chief executive, in a statement.

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 9:18:32 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Cisco Systems Inc. fell in premarket action Wednesday following its latest financial results.

In early trades, shares of Cisco fell as much as 5%. Analysts said disappointment that Cisco did not raise its fourth-quarter sales forecast contributed to pretrade weakness. Another concern: gross margin fell slightly.

Late Tuesday Cisco reported a 34% increase in third-quarter profit as big phone and cable companies continued to snap up equipment to help deliver video services over their networks.

Cisco reported net income of $1.9 billion, or 30 cents a share, in the quarter ended April 28.

That compared with $1.4 billion, or 22 cents a share, in the year-earlier period.

Keene Little : 5/9/2007 9:13:30 AM

Yesterday's bounce from the quick spike down left me wondering how it fits into the larger price pattern and whether it's bullish or bearish. Unfortunately I could easily argue either side and that leaves it as more of a coin toss from here. It's possible the leg up completed a 3-wave bounce from Friday's low in which case we'll head down quickly from here. Or the 3-wave pullback correction from Friday's high completed at yesterday's low and after a pullback today to correct yesterday's rally we'll see the rally resume.

The key levels are yesterday's lows and highs--if we pull back and then rally to a new high it will be a bullish pattern and long will be the right place to be (at least for a short term trade). But if a drop takes out yesterday's lows then you'll want to be short (for what could be a longer term trade). In between we should expect a lot of chop, especially as we wait for the FOMC announcement (which of course is silly since the market has been rallying regardless of what the Fed wants to do).

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 9:11:19 AM

This is the chart that is giving us goldbugs sleepless nights. Although the US$ is very bearish it is showing signs of recovery and that would be very bad for anyone long gold. Link

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 9:08:35 AM

I was bullish on Natural Gas and thought it would break out of this trading range but it has not so I am back on the sidelines in this market. I was going to use the new ETF, UNG to take a long here and still may if the green dotted 200EMA holds as support. Link

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 9:05:49 AM

I usually find the daily chart of Oil very hard to read but it has recently revealed a very clear support zone as well. Link

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 9:03:06 AM

Gold has a very clear support zone and I will stay in my long GLD position until I see a close below 670.00. Link

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 8:59:07 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell early Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and accompanying policy statement due later in the session.

Gold for June delivery edged down $1.90 to $685.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, gold futures fell $3 to $687.40 an ounce.

"Today is likely to be another day of currency watching as traders remain cautious ahead of the Fed meeting today and [European Central Bank] rate decision tomorrow, with the outcome potentially setting short-term direction," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

Jeff Bailey : 5/9/2007 9:00:11 AM

Toll Brothers Earnings Press Release at this Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.41 on Revenue of $1.10B.

Ticks lower at $28.84 pre-market. Closed yesterday at $29.21.

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 8:55:17 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures were marginally higher Wednesday, as traders awaited data on petroleum supplies from the Energy Department due later in the session.

Crude oil for June delivery rose 12 cents to $62.38 an ounce in electronic trade.

"The focus of today's session will be the EIA [Energy Information Administration] inventory numbers," said Edward Meir, analyst at Man Financial Energy Group, in a morning note.

"The market has started to discount the possibility of a slight build in gasoline stocks, but from the looks of things, the anticipated increase might be too little to significantly impact the prevailing obsession with low gasoline stocks," Meir said.

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 8:49:17 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Applications for new mortgages to buy a home rose last week to the highest level since early January as mortgage rates fell, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday.

The total number of applications filed including purchase loans and refinancing loans was 3.6% higher on a week-to-week basis, and up about 21% compared with the same week a year ago.

Loan applications for mortgages to purchase a home rose by 2.6% week-to-week and are up about 5% from a year ago.

By comparison, U.S. home sales through March were down about 13% from the same time last year.

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 8:47:16 AM

I still contend that the DOW needs to retrace to February highs which just happen to be a 38.20% retracement of the rally from the March lows to May highs. Notice that the 50EMA is moving up to this level as well. 12800 is becoming a very important number for the DOW. Link

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 8:36:06 AM

Gold is falling as the US$ hovers at its PDHs. I was afraid of this because although the $ chart was very bearish it had a "look" to it that made me think it was trying to make a comeback. And as we all know a comeback in the US$ is not good for us Goldbugs. Link

Jane Fox : 5/9/2007 8:31:05 AM

You would have to say overnight trading was neutral but there is a case for putting it in the bearish category because the swing low at 8:30 made new overnight lows thus a lower low.

We should be expecting a very slow trading day until 2:15 when we get the FED decision on what he/they will do with interest rates. Although there is a very good chance he/they will leave them alone we will still get some wide moves, moves that I am never prepared to trade. Link

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