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Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2007 12:29:10 AM

Happy Mother's Day!

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2007 12:28:54 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2007 12:16:16 AM

The Weekly Interval bar chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Link prints a "doji," which can signal a near-term reversal of trend.

Today's SPX NH/NL measure finishes at 21:2

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2007 12:11:24 AM

Bullish swing trade call raise stop alert for the one (1) Intercontinental Exchange ICE Jun $150 Call (IHH-FJ) to $138.40 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 5/12/2007 12:09:27 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for the 1/2 position in Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $35.58 +1.71% ... to $34.70.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:16:33 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:11:17 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/11/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 5:24:03 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 5:06:00 PM

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) $140.55 +4.22% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 5:05:56 PM

DJ- CBOT-CME Deal Now Carries $288M Breakup Fee

CME $536.30 +7.70% Link ...

BOT $201.35 +3.78% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 5:05:40 PM

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA): Crt Finds Eisai's Aciphex Patent Enforceable

DJ- Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA) late Friday said a U.S. district court has found that Eisai Co.'s (ESALF) patent for its acid pump inhibitor, Aciphex, is enforceable.

Teva, an Israeli pharmaceutical company, plans to appeal the ruling immediately as well as the court's decision granting summary judgment of validity to Eisai.

Teva said its abbreviated new drug application to market a generic version of Aciphex has already been approved by the Food and Drug Administration.

The company said it's been awarded 180 days marketing exclusivity for the product, which will start on the earlier of the date of first commercial launch or a final court decision.

The ruling came from the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 5:05:34 PM

S&P Insurance (IUX.X) 419.18 +0.81% ... closes at new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 4:47:48 PM

AMEX Networking Index (NWX.X) 273.26 +2.38% ... closes at new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 4:47:05 PM

AMEX Computer Tech (XCI.X) 846.53 +1.25% ... closes at new 52-weeker.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 4:29:11 PM

I've got to run. Hope all y'all have a great weekend.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 4:26:39 PM

Setups are the same on the NDX and the RUT (although the RUT looks like it could use a little higher before setting up a potential high for its bounce). Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 4:23:36 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $14.68 +4.48% ... was up yesterday too!

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 4:21:28 PM

C being blocked out at $53.00. 6.19 million @ $53.00, and two 1.0 million blocks at $53.00.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 4:19:42 PM

This is our setup on SPX for Monday: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 4:18:31 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $133.56 +0.80% ... erase bulk of Thursday's losses.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 4:15:23 PM

Should be a pressure filled Monday morning!

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 4:14:12 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $150.89

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 4:11:49 PM

SPX is up against its broken uptrend line and the DOW has gone about as far as it can go and still remain bearish--78.6% retracement and back up to the bottom of its broken up-channel. It's a good place to buy some lottery puts (May) and hope for an immediate decline starting Monday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 4:06:02 PM

Somebody thew the switch on the YM 13,370

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 4:03:49 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $74.88 +1.44% ... did see a trade at $75.00, so "X gets the square!"

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 4:01:41 PM

YM is now breaking its PDH and ER is tagging its PDH.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 4:01:13 PM

They parked SPX right up against its broken uptrend line from April 12th, prompting of course the question "do you feel lucky punk?" Will it jump over and run higher next week or immediately sell off? Flat is a good position for the weekend.

Tab Gilles : 5/11/2007 3:58:50 PM

OIH OilServicee ETF Testing highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 3:56:14 PM

Dow Jones US Technology (DJUSTC) 601.19 +1.33% ... new 52-weeker.

Jim Brown : 5/11/2007 3:50:26 PM

Outstanding! - Nice move by the Chinese oil stocks today! Sinopec (SNP) +7.69, Petrochina (PTR) +6.20. We are long both of those in the LEAPS newsletter

Tab Gilles : 5/11/2007 3:50:20 PM

Taking a look at the QQQQ, $SPX, $OEX & $NYA charts look at those doji candles this week.

Bullish percentage, RSI and MACD over bought.

Caution is still the word. Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 3:48:58 PM

TEVA's BVC is to $53.00

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 3:48:39 PM

Crude Oil's support held on today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 3:47:43 PM

15,888 have traded. CNBC "Dr J" cites possible takeover action.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 3:47:05 PM

Like I said earlier this is/was a "Get long and hang on" type of day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 3:47:08 PM

TVQ-EH are $0.60 offer.

TEVA $39.72

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 3:45:23 PM

NDX bounced right up to the trend line along the highs since Jan 2004 and is now pushing a little higher towards its broken uptrend line from April 12th (broken yesterday). If it drops back down now it could leave a little shooting star reversal candlestick on its 30 and 60-min charts at resistance. SPX came within 26 cents of its 62% retracement of yesterday's drop and is also close to retesting its broken uptrend line from April 12th, currently just under 1506. Today looks bullish but the jury is still out as to what it means for next week.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 3:33:24 PM

Nice push higher as we head into the final 30 minutes. Good way to get some positive press over the weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 3:20:20 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 3:07:12 PM

I showed the GLD 60-min chart earlier today (12:14 -- Link ) and the daily chart puts it a little more into perspective. The gold bulls obviously want to see support at the October uptrend line hold whereas a break below yesterday's low would be a confirmed break of support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 3:06:00 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 3:02:08 PM

Sell'm if they get there.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 3:02:00 PM

Bullish swing trade call option alert ... for one (1) of the Intercontinental Exchange ICE Jun $150 Calls (IHH-FJ) for $4.20($3.80 x $4.20)

ICE $140.20 +3.96%

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 3:01:27 PM

The Trannies appear to have topped at the April high as it hit the top of its parallel up-channel for price action since the March low and at the trend line along the highs from May 2006. A break back below yesterday's low would confirm it with a break of its uptrend line from March 14th. But if it manages to chop its way higher then I could see a push back up near 5300 before the rally is complete. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 2:52:25 PM

DIA closed $126.15 on 4/13/07.

DIA $133.11 +0.46% ...

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 2:49:35 PM

Back to the daily chart updates--the oil stocks (OIX) are getting a nice bounce today but the last high looks like a good one. I would be short these stocks against the high at 703. It was a throw-over above the trend line along the highs from August 2006, it finished a 5-wave count there and it left behind some bearish divergences. It's possible we'll see a sideways consolidation that works off the overbought and bearish divergence which is why I would not want to be short if 703 is exceeded. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 2:46:02 PM

YM 13,337

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 2:45:45 PM

If that's the explanation for C's volume observation earlier today, then its "put off" already. Will be dilutive to EPS probably, but not that much in the scope of things.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 2:40:27 PM

Update on GOOG chart shows price has bounced back up for a test of both its neckline and downtrend line, both near 465. Whichever way it goes from here should be a good trade. I'd think about trying a short first and then reverse to long if resistance breaks. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 2:41:06 PM

Update- Citigroup Registers 14.2M Common

DJ- Citigroup Inc. (C) on Friday registered to allow for the sale of up to 14.2 million shares of common stock from time to time by Corporacion UBC Internacional SA of Costa Rica.

The shares could be worth up to $755 million, Citigroup said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Corporacion UBC acquired the shares when Citigroup purchased some of its units earlier this month.

Citigroup said it won't receive any of the proceeds from the sale of shares by Corporacion UBC No underwriters were listed in Friday's SEC filing.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 2:37:29 PM

C got hit to $53.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 2:36:13 PM

Chevron: No Impact Seen On Nigeria Oil Output

Most Work Suspension In Nigeria Offshore.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 2:31:28 PM

Today's news about CME's offer to buy CBOT has certainly spiked the price of CME. Obviously some think it would be a good thing for CME. After today's gap up (a move up was at least being predicted by its descending wedge pattern with bullish divergences), it's now a question as to whether it's a one-day wonder pop or something more. It looks ready for at least a short term pullback and then we'll have to see if it does just a corrective pullback or starts back down in more earnest. If it's corrective then a move at least back up to the top of its channel will look likely. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 2:26:13 PM

VIX.X 12.94 -4.85% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 2:25:43 PM

SPY Up/DnTick is 9.3:10.24

ES is 74.05:66.80.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 2:15:42 PM

DJ- 02:00 Money Flow Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 2:10:45 PM

Dendreon (DNDN) $6.04 +9.02% ... jumps atop most actives.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 2:07:51 PM

PG&E Urges Customers to Keep Metallic Balloons Secure for Mother's Day and Graduation Day Celebrations

DJ- This month many customers will celebrate Mother's Day and graduation day with helium filled metallic balloons. Pacific Gas and Electric Company urges customers to make sure that all metallic balloons containing helium are securely tied to a weight that will prevent them from floating away in the air. Unsecured metallic balloons that contact overhead power lines can disrupt electric service to an entire neighborhood, cause significant property damage and result in serious personal injuries.

Metallic balloons that drift into PG&E power lines cause between 100 to 150 outages each year affecting electric service to thousands of PG&E customers throughout northern and central California. In the most dangerous circumstances, metallic balloons cause power lines to fall to the ground creating the potential for fires, property damage, injury and even death.

In order to significantly reduce these types of outages each year, and so everyone can safely enjoy their Mother's Day and graduation day celebrations, PG&E reminds customers to follow these important safety tips for metallic balloons.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 2:02:54 PM

Not much of a change to the short term picture here. As shown on the SPX 60-min chart, price appears to be consolidating underneath resistance at its broken uptrend line from Apri 12th. This is bullish if it continues. Even if it drops a little lower first before rallying again it's looking a little more bullish than bearish at the moment. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 1:59:24 PM

Treasury Secretary Paulson To Skip Potsdam G8 Meeting

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 1:53:21 PM

No details there ... Not sure if that means Corporacion UBC is/was a restricted holder of C shares and now registering that restricted stock, or what ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 1:51:07 PM

DJ- Citigroup Registers 14.2M Common Shares for Corporacion UBC Intl.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 1:48:51 PM

Oil (USO) is attempting to bounce after dropping to the bottom of a new parallel down-channel from its April high. It came close to tagging the price level where it would have two equal legs down (46.92). I'm leaning bearish on this one and think it will continue lower. It takes a rally above 51.90 to negate the bearish count although a break of its downtrend line, currently near 50.75, would be the first heads up that it's getting more bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 1:47:48 PM

CNN - US Has Been Aware Of Threat In Germany For Several Weeks

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 1:42:42 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 1:34:40 PM

Grab your coffee and sit back and read McMillan's thoughts. A large decline finally materialized after about five weeks of solid gains. It had a bit of the appearance of 'everyone trying to get out of the exit at once.' In other words, there was a panic feel to the selling. When all was said and done, though, the damage to the intermediate-term picture was minor. But we will have to be vigilant to see if there is any follow- through.

$SPX had made a series of new highs, as it crawled along the outside of the upper Bollinger Band. That is a tough pace to maintain, as the market is generally overbought at those heights. Thursday's selling alleviated that overbought condition, as $SPX pulled all the way back to its 20-day moving average in one day. This is also where the bullish uptrend line exists. Thus, so far, there has not been a violation of that important line. However, should $SPX close below support in the 1475-1480 area, we would have to downgrade the chart to short-term negative. At the present time, though, it remains an intermediate-term bullish chart.

The equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on buy signals. One day's action is not generally going to turn these 21-day moving averages around. The weighted ratio is overbought in that it is near the lower regions on its chart. However, just because the last two sell signals occurred in the same general area on the put-call chart does not mean the next one will. So, we continue to view these indicators as bullish unless they roll over and begin to trend upward.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) suffered badly on Friday, and as a result, generated sell signals. Breadth is a somewhat schizophrenic indicator though -- easily swinging back and forth between buy and sell signals -- so we tend to use it only as a confirming signal. Therefore, while the breadth sell signals are noteworthy, we are not going to change our market opinion based on them alone.

Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have remain subdued, albeit at higher levels than we saw earlier in the year. $VIX moved higher on Friday, but not overly so. Specifically, $VIX was only 0.72 higher and the Dow was down 150. As a comparison, on February 27th, when the Dow was down 416, $VIX was up over 7 full points. So, option traders were not overly worried by Thursday's decline, and they -- through their opinion on $VIX -- are usually worth heeding. What would be worrisome would be if $VIX continues to rise in the coming days.

In summary, the selloff on Thursday by itself has not caused any real damage to the bullish case. So, we officially remain intermediate- term bullish. However, if some of the other indicators begin to turn bearish (especially if $SPX closes below 1475), then we will alter our view.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 1:35:05 PM

In the first week of May I had pointed out the possibility for a H&S topping pattern in the home builders for the bounce off its April low. The neckline then broke on May 4th and price gave a little peck (it wasn't quite a kiss) goodbye on Wednesday. It looks like it's headed towards its downside price objective near 590. Link

The daily chart is even more bearish than that though. I have a feeling 590 won't even be a speed bump on its way much lower. Link But I'm still watching lumber prices for clues--it's getting a little bounce but still well within its down-channel and MACD is buried in negative territory. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 1:31:45 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 1:25:55 PM

CNN - US Sources: Terrorists Planning Attack In Germany

DJ- Terrorists have been in the advanced planning stages of an attack in Germany on U.S. personnel, Cable News Network, citing a senior U.S. official, reported Friday.

CNN said the planning may have also included attacking tourists in Germany.

Members of the intelligence community, whom CNN did not identify, said the threat lacked specifics in terms of timing.

CNN said the U.S. official said operational planning for the attack or attacks has been going on for some time, and that it involves bombs and the use of small arms against military facilities.

CNN reported that the senior official said an al-Qaida affiliate franchise in Europe may be behind the threat.

CNN said there was no information of anyone being evacuated, but an alert has been sent to U.S. consular and diplomatic facilities in Germany, saying security should be increased.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 1:21:05 PM

As Linda just mentioned (12:38) the BIX may be in a topping pattern here. The index made it a little higher than the Fib projection at 405.42 that I've been watching but it then dropped sharply back down yesterday. A continuation lower below yesterday's low would be bearish. But if it manages to continue pushing higher then I see the possibility for it to push back up to its previous high near 415 and a retest of its broken uptrend line from October 2005. Link

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 1:13:05 PM

I'm looking over some of the other daily charts that I typically cover in each Wednesday's Market Wrap. Since I missed getting the daily charts (this week's Wrap included just the weekly reviews), I thought I'd go ahead and update them now for your use and study over the weekend. So after the 4 indices, next is the semis, SMH. Link

After tagging its Fib projection at 37.99 (where the 5th wave = the 1st wave in the move up from the end of March), which was accompanied by bearish divergence, this one may have topped. But if it can press a little higher then the price objective out of the sideways triangle pattern is at 39.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 1:03:49 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 1:01:39 PM

For any of you who do not know Linda, she used to be a MM commentator whose contributions are sorely missed. She is without a doubt one of the best technicians out there.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 12:58:47 PM

Heh Linda - Wow is this great to see you here.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 12:57:56 PM

Here are daily chart updates for the 4 indices we watch:

The DOW's daily chart looks bearish in that the oscillators are rolling over while price is at resistance (top of its parallel up-channel from July). My best guess based on this daily chart is that we've either seen the top or we'll get a sideways consolidation before the final run higher. Link

SPX has the same setup. Again we've either seen the high or we have one more new high to go. I show the possibility (light green and hard to see) for a move up higher sooner rather than later (as into next week) to a Fib projection near 1522. Either that or it will consolidate sideways before heading higher later this month. While I show a move all the way up to its all-time high (dark green), the same 1522 Fib projection may be all it gets. Link

NDX has been stalled at the trend line along the highs from January 2004 for the past two weeks. Bulls will see the pulling back in MACD while price goes sideways as a bullish indicator (especially if it doesn't get below zero). Bears see MACD rolling over after a negative divergence at its last high as bearish. I'd have to lean with the bears on this one. Its uptrend line from March 14th is currently near 1866 so a drop below yesterday's low would be bearish and a drop below its uptrend line would confirm it. Link

The RUT is the only one that gives me a stronger sense that we could see an immediate rally into next week to finish THE rally. But it will have to do it soon. Any drop back below yesterday's low would also be a break of its uptrend line from March 14th and that would be a strong sell signal. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2007 12:54:31 PM

And just when I was thinking about buying a diesel, Jeff! However, I've got my eye on a diesel conversion to vegetable oil, so maybe I'm okay. Unfortunately, I've got to sign off now. Good trading, everyone. Be careful in this climate.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 12:49:51 PM

TICKS just hit -1000. Yes Virginia that was a minus sign. Go Figure!!!

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:47:07 PM

Hi Linda! ... Get over there to the VLO refinery and light a match under those guys. Diesel prices here in Denver are out of control!

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:46:00 PM

On 5/07/07 I received my monthly per diem of $0.323/share for the TLT.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:38:59 PM

FVX.X 4.569% ...

TNX.X 4.660% ...

TYX.X 4.840% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/11/2007 12:38:52 PM

Hi, everyone. Long time no see. Unfortunately, my family situation still does not allow me to participate fully in the Market Monitor, but I couldn't resist signing on for a moment to point out that the BIX, at 401.53 as I type, is forming a little head-and-shoulder on the 30-minute chart, with a neckline at about the day's low and open, at 401.84. I show significant Keltner support on 30-minute closes at 400.98-401.32, so I'm far from sure that this formation will confirm. Prices could jump right back up to close 30-minute periods above that neckline after piercing it. Be especially cautious about conclusions if the formation should seemingly confirm but then prices bounce back immediately, especially if this should occur near the stop-running period that often occurs in about an hour from now. I don't trust these formations any longer anyway, but they can show us something about bullish vs. bearish sentiment as they either confirm or are invalidated. Lately a tendency has been for the right shoulder to moderate into a triangle that's as often as not broken to the upside, invalidating the whole thing. However, given the sometimes-importance of the BIX, it might be something to watch for confirmation of your own sentiment in the markets, whether you're bullish or bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:35:44 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 position in shares of Olin Corp. (OLN) at the offer of $18.15.

Stop goes $16.50 to begin. Target $21.

SEC Yield based on annual dividend of $0.80/share currently 4.407%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:31:47 PM

email reply ... No, I give individual stock advice often. Yes! I like it as a dividend/growth play.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:21:59 PM

I can't believe a shareholder would even think of this ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:20:04 PM

1 million there at 11:45-50 AM EDT

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:19:31 PM

News Corp. (NWS) $23.17 +0.30% ..

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:18:25 PM

Dow Jones (DJ) $52.92 +2.22% ... big volume last 25 minutes.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 12:14:04 PM

After dropping down to its uptrend line from October GLD has bounced today (again in synch with equities). That uptrend line coincided with a retest of its broken downtrend line from April 20th and was where it had two equal legs down from that April 20 high. Link

It looked too good to pass up and I'm glad I reversed long gold (YG) near yesterday's low to hedge my silver short. Now I'm watching to see how the bounce progresses and where I may want to cover the gold long. Any break back below yesterday's low could usher in some fast selling (for equities too). In the meantime I'm watching the US dollar for some clues as to what it's going to do next--turn back down for a new low or continue to head higher from here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:12:08 PM

See a Wall Stree Journal headline "China to Allow Banks to Offer Overseas Equity Exposure."

May be C related.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:07:34 PM

Gosh those ICE $140.16 +3.93% Link call options are "expensive."

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 12:03:37 PM

This morning's rally in SPX found resistance at its broken uptrend line from the April 12th low, currently at 1504. Needless to say the bears want to see a kiss goodbye here. Link

If the bounce fails here and heads for a new low then it would be a very strong indication that we've seen THE high. But until then we could get either a larger bounce correction (light red) or a continuation higher to make a new high next week. I'm watching today's pattern in the bounce to see if it gets impulsive and a new high from here could do it (that would strengthen the bullish count even if for only another leg up after a pullback as per the light red price depiction).

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 12:00:45 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $72.84 +0.88% ... a little "different" action today after earnings than that found on 5/11/06.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:59:04 AM

Trader and investors that have been with us will NEVER forget 5/10/06-5/11/06 and AIG.

At least I will not.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:57:12 AM

Citigroup Options Chain benchmark at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:54:38 AM

C's "Max Pain Theory" currently tabulated at $52.50 ($2.50 increments)

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 11:51:06 AM

All markets are building what looks like bull flags. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:50:34 AM

c most active option looks to be Jan $45 Put (WRV-MI) ... $0.65 last.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:49:46 AM

YM 13,346

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:49:28 AM

C $53.28 +0.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:48:58 AM

C ... Up/DnTick vol currently 8.4:7.6

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 11:47:36 AM

TICKS were very strong earlier today but have weakened substantially. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:42:14 AM

Interesting call here ... DA Davidson raising Cabella's (CAB) $22.57 +1.89% Link to "buy," but downgrades Gander Mountain (GMTN) $15.16 +1.26% Link to "underperform."

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:39:06 AM

Folks ... C is #1 volume. That's VERY unusual.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:38:25 AM

BIIIIG volume spike in shares of Citigroup (C) $53.39 +0.35% ... from 11:10-11:15 AM EDT. 24.3 million shares

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:28:52 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 11:28:21 AM

We so much for my prognostications that Gold would see new daily lows and the US$ new daily highs. Link

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 11:22:55 AM

If you want to go long YM is the market to use. Link

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 11:12:03 AM

If yesterday's decline was wave-1 of a larger decline coming, then today's correction is wave-2. It's important to know that 2nd wave corrections are usually strong because many believe the correction is over. They're called sucker waves because they get traders leaning in the wrong direction. So knowing that I'm watching this bounce for signs that it's just a correction.

But so far this morning's rally has some signs that it's more than a correction. If we now get a consolidation near the highs followed by another push higher, that would give us a strong impulsive move up off yesterday's low. In that case a pullback correction to this morning's rally is one you'll want to buy. That's what I'll be watching for next.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 11:07:18 AM

I would like to know if anyone else using the downloaded version of the MM cannot get images. If not please email me at jbfox@charter.net or support@optioninvestor.com

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 11:03:20 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 11:01:27 AM

Goodness gracious this is a "get long and hang on" day. Link

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 10:56:55 AM

Two equal legs up in this morning's bounce in SPX is at 1502.98 which was just hit. If this is to be just a correction then the 1503 area would likely be the end of the bounce. If we get much more of a rally than this right here then it begins to strengthen the idea that we're going to see a rally to a new high.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 10:52:37 AM

A 62% retracement of yesterday's drop in SPX is at 1505.30. We've seen many instances of greater retracements but once it gets more than 62% you have to start wondering if it's going to be something more than just a correction. So far it's now reaching up to a 50% retracement at 1502.68.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:47:35 AM

CME Sweetens Offer for CBOT ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:44:24 AM

Everything June so far. May $150 Calls showing just 718 and #6.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:41:52 AM

Qcharts locked up ... would be pulling up an SPY/SPX option chain, analyze most actives.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:38:13 AM

VIX.X 12.95 -4.77% ... slips below DAILY S1 (13.04)

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:37:19 AM

At 02:30:14 yesterday, VIX.X was 13.39 at these SPX price levels.

Nobody's flinched at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:36:10 AM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,499.22 +0.51% ...

VIX.X 13.00 -4.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:34:02 AM

Greenspan Sees One-third Chance of Recession ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:30:08 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $129.19 +5.11% ... has volume early.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:21:42 AM

Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 824.67 +0.73% ... sticks its head back above WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:20:25 AM

Swing trade cancel prior order alert ... Please cancel yesterday's order to buy BOOM at $34.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:19:00 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/2 position in shares of Dynamic Materials (BOOM) at the offer of $35.05.

Stop goes $33.70, target $38.50.

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 10:07:48 AM

Look for at least a shakeout move down this morning before resuming its rally. The important number is yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/11/2007 10:03:46 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 9:47:14 AM

We've got a bounce started after the 5-wave move down yesterday so this bounce should get larger, both in time and price. If you bought the "dip" then having your stop below yesterday's low is the right place. If it's going to be just a correction to yesterday's decline then expect choppy price action. If yesterday's decline was the end of a larger correction starting from last Friday then long is the place to be for a rally into next week.

We don't know which it will be yet and once the bounce progresses you'll be able to raise your stop. The price pattern is clear at this point--we either topped this week or one more new high will do it. So if you're long the market from a while ago, bringing your stop up below yesterday's low is the perfect spot.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 9:29:56 AM

Ad line and volume were very bearish yesterday yet the bulls were able to bring price to new daily highs. However the difference yesterday was that the bears were able regain control and bring price back to new daily lows and then some Link

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 9:22:12 AM

A retracement to the 23.60% level is a very shallow retracement and is not as healthy as one to 50%.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 9:21:10 AM

SPX built a bearish flag over the last 11 trading days that was confirmed by MACD's bearish divergence. Yesterday's drop confirmed that flag now we wait for Mr. Market to tell us just how far this correction will go. Mr Fibonacci is telling us at least to 1476. Link

Keene Little : 5/11/2007 9:11:16 AM

Equity futures did a nice recovery off their overnight lows and as we near the open the only one not doing well is NQ. That one is closer to its low than the spike up after the 8:30 reports. The metals are getting a nice little bounce as well which so far looks like a correction to yesterday's steep drop. The US dollar still looks strong (euro weak) so I don't expect the bounce in the metals to last. The jury is out on equities until we see what kind of bounce develops.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 9:07:43 AM

Russell 2000 cash index has certainly hit resistance and MACD was telling me it would not break this resistance. I suspect it will retrace (I hope to about the 800 area) before it takes another run at those yearly and all time highs. Link

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 9:03:34 AM

I was bullish on Natural Gas but with the way Crude is trading and it having such a hard time break this trading range, I'm not so sure anymore. MACD is telling me to hold off on my bullishness. Link

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 9:01:35 AM

Crude is finding support at its April lows, 61.00/bl however, the consolidation at the lows of a trading range suggest it will break lower. Link

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 8:58:20 AM

I bailed on my long GLD position yesterday because my get out point was a close below 670 and yesterday Gold closed at 667.00. I also see a lower high and a lower low that is supported by the MACD, ie MACD is telling me there is no divergences to make me think there is underlying bullishness. Link

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 8:55:21 AM

NQ has just fallen and is now testing its overnight lows. The rally out of the gate is becoming less sure.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 8:48:52 AM

Equity markets liked the data out at 8:30, although you have to wonder why. Could be that with each report that comes out that the economy is cooling is less fuel for the inflation fire. Link

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 8:42:50 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil and gasoline futures extended their gains Friday after the International Energy Agency expressed concern about the adequacy of current energy stocks.

Crude oil for June delivery rose 38 cents to $62.19 a barrel in electronic trade.

Reformulated gasoline for June delivery rose 2.30 cents, or 1%, at $2.3491 a gallon. On Thursday, reformulated gasoline climbed 4.3%, or 9.52 cents, to close at $2.3261 a gallon, its strongest level since mid-August.

The IEA is anticipating a "thirsty market in the months ahead," the energy agency said in its monthly oil market report Friday.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 8:38:21 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales fell a weaker-than-expected 0.2% in April, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. This was the biggest decline in retail sales since last September.

Excluding autos, retail sales were flat. Excluding both autos and gas, retail sales were down 0.2%

Economists were expecting a soft report, but not this weak. The average forecast in a MarketWatch survey called for a 0.3% rise in retail sales in April. Excluding autos, sales were expected to rise 0.5%.

But there was a hint on Thursday that retail sales might be weaker than expected, when most large U.S. chain stores reported miserable April sales results, hurt by unseasonable weather and an early Easter holiday in March. See full story.

The report may be a sign that consumer spending is slowing, which would have significant ramifications on the outlook for economic growth in coming quarters. Consumer spending has remained strong over the past six months even as the economy slowed. Spending rose at a 3.8% pace in the first quarter and a 4.2% pace in the fourth quarter.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 8:36:04 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Higher energy prices pushed up wholesale prices by 0.7% in April, but core inflation was tame again, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The producer price index for finished goods rose 0.7% in April, driven by a 3.4% increase in energy prices. Wholesale gasoline prices rose 8.2%.

Outside of energy, however, price gains were more moderate. Food prices rose 0.4%, the smallest gain in four months.

Excluding both food and energy goods, wholesale prices for finished goods were unchanged in April. Car prices fell 1%. Capital equipment prices rose 0.1%, including a 3.8% increase in heavy truck prices.

The 0.7% gain in overall inflation was larger than the 0.5% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch, but the flat reading on the core rate came in below the 0.2% gain expected.

Jane Fox : 5/11/2007 8:26:41 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told an audience in Singapore that the odds are two-to-one that the U.S. economy won't fall into a recession, wire services reported, citing people who attended the event. Global economic growth would mitigate a U.S. slowdown but China's trade imbalances won't correct while the yuan was artifically low, he reportedly said. He also said that continued Japanese investment demand for government bonds is keeping interest rates in Japan low, making yen carry trades attractive -- he called the trade a "cultural phenomenon."

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