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Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:19:31 AM

SPX 60-min intervals chart ... that was then on 02/27/07 when SPX gapped below WEEKLY S2 and MONTHLY 61.8%.

Tonight, SPX closes "similar" to 2/26/07 close with WEEKLY Pivot.

Had today's SPX new highs been fewer than 30, I'd feel more "comfortable" with the thought that MONTHLY R1/Weekly R1 is resistance.

Nope. Overhead supply still vastly limited, Nh/Nl indications "strong enough" to warrant just one (1) SPY put at this time, not 2.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:08:52 AM

Boy ... for WEEKLY and MONTHLY Pivot retracement action to play out like 02/27/07, we'd need to see a GAP OPEN below WEEKLY S2 tomorrow morning as well as MONTHLY 61.8% (retracement above MONTHLY Pivot).

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:04:41 AM

On 02/27/07 I did profile two (2) SFB-PN for $2.60. One was close out the same day at $5.30 and the other days later on 3/7/07 for $4.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:00:30 AM

Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix updated at tonight's close Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:39:58 AM

Weekly Pivot Matrix from 02/26-3/02 the week of most recent correction. Then the following 3/05-03/09 that provided a bounce before some giveback during 3/12-3/16 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:29:51 AM

AT&T (T) $40.03 ... closed at a 52-week high today. This was a stock that fit the profile of a "buying climax," on Monday 4/23/07 when it traded a 52-week high, then closed lower on the week.

Looking for ANYTHING that might signal a near-term "top," but having difficulty finding it.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 12:02:35 AM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The fact that the DOW made a new high on Monday that was not matched by any of the others is either very bearish (non-confirmation) or else it means all will create a larger sideways or down correction before proceeding higher. It's tough to tell from here. But with the RUT parked on its uptrend line from March 14th (a break of which could be signficant) and the clear 3-wave bounces from last Thursday's lows, the market can't afford to sell off first thing Tuesday morning.

So the setup could get an early answer in the morning--rally back up and we could see a sideways triangle or an ascending wedge in play. If we get an early drop then we could see at least another leg down to match the drop from last Wednesday's high to Thursday's low. More bearishly it could start the ball rolling down hill. So with that, here are the 4 roadmap updates:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/14/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 9:37:35 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) ... Most recent NAV, Stock Price, and Premium/(Discount) history Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 9:33:39 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 9:32:17 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 7:44:24 PM

Per today's 02:06:48 ... SPX NH/NL tabulated at 48:4.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 6:49:28 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 10-point box chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 6:48:25 PM

I'm experiencing a lightning storm. Should I have a major power disruption, I may not be able to capture additional charts.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 5:59:58 PM

SPX Weekly Interval bar chart at this Link

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 4:24:24 PM

Hopefully the possibilities will clear up a little as the price pattern unfolds but so far there are several possibilities, even some bullish ones for the bearish RUT. It closed on its uptrend line from March 14th so it should rally tomorrow if one of the bullish counts is in play. A break of the trend line, especially if it's followed by a retest that fails, would be bearish. The key level to the downside is 807 whereas it takes a rally above 837 to say we've got something stronger than the dark green bullish wave count. Link

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 4:12:15 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. April Consumer Price Index. Expected: +0.5%. Previous: +0.6%.

8:30a.m. April CPI, Ex-Food And Energy. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: +0.1%.

8:30a.m. May NY Fed Manufacturing Index. Expected: 8.0. Previous: 3.80.

9:00a.m. March Treasury International Capital Flows. Previous: $94.5B.

1:00p.m. May NAHB Housing Market Index. Previous: 33.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 4:08:54 PM

SPY $150.53 -0.21% ... now just below its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 4:07:24 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $150.57 -0.19% ...

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 3:58:38 PM

Again, sorry for the multiple lines on this NDX 60-min chart but I want to show the multiple possibilities from here and some of the key levels for them. Link

The dark green path traces out what would be the ascending wedge for the final leg up, targeting just shy of 1923 for the high. The light green shows an up-down sequence that could play out this week to finish a sideways triangle for the 4th wave. The upside target for that count is up to about 1940 to as high as 1980. That kind of move would clearly look like a blow-off top and I don't discount that possibility. RSI will need to break its downtrend line for that to happen.

The dark red shows an immediate decline is due. A break of the uptrend line near 1872, confirmed with a break below 1857, would be more immediately bearish. Until then I'm leaning towards one of the two bullish wave counts.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 3:36:23 PM

PEARSON BUYS ECOLLEGE FOR $477M

DJ- Pearson makes another addition to its educational business with the $22.45 a share deal, a 7.1% premium to Friday's closing price. ECollege develops online degree programs for universities and other institutions.

ECLG $22.01 +4.95% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 3:34:47 PM

BUSH WANTS FUEL-EFFICIENCY RULES

DJ- President Bush directs federal agencies to craft regulations by the end of 2008 to cut gasoline consumption and greenhouse-gas emissions from automobiles. He has plan that seeks to cut U.S. gasoline consumption by 20% over the next 10 years.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 3:34:00 PM

CARDINAL HEALTH TO BUY VIASYS HEALTH

DJ- Cardinal Health agrees to pay $42.75 a share, or $1.4 billion, to buy Viasys Healthcare, a 35% premium to its closing price Friday. The deal, which was approved by both boards, is expected to be completed this summer.

CAH $69.26 +0.27% ...

VAS $43.12 +36.67% ...

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 3:33:16 PM

ES never did get to test its PDL but NQ tagged its PDL and they held. YM is finding resistance at its PDH. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 3:29:38 PM

CNBC reported minutes ago that Bancroft family was meeting.

June expiration on options should be sufficient for their answer.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 3:28:15 PM

Dow Jones Co. (DJ) $54.18 +2.03% ...

NWS $23.51 +0.90% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 3:27:18 PM

Murdoch offers Bancrofts seat on News board

MarketWatch - Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 3:24:32 PM

SPX 1,503.21 -0.17% ... set for a test of WEEKLY Pivot (from underneath).

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 3:23:58 PM

VIX.X 13.98 +7.95% ... reversing course.

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 3:20:39 PM

Sorry, should have fixed the labels on that SPX 60-min chart to show how the green wave counts would look: Link

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 3:15:13 PM

The RUT's uptrend line held on that spike down (slight under-throw) so we'll see if it holds for the rest of the day. If SPX can get another rally started it will maintain the possibility for an ascending wedge to form (dark green on this 60-min chart). It's a little messy looking but on this chart I'm depicting the ascending wedge pattern taking price up to about 1533 which is at the top of its parallel channel created off the highs since March 21st. Link

However, based on my thoughts about a larger 4th wave correction, as depicted on the DOW chart I posted (2:24) I'm showing the same idea (light green) where price will find support at the bottom of its parallel channel that was created the same way as shown on the DOW chart, which is currently near 1485.. A Fib projection from there, where wave-5 = 62% of wave-1, would have SPX ralling to about 1530 for another test of its broken uptrend line from April 12th, but not until mid next week.

In both bullish scenarios we could get a closing price above 1527 so that the Boyz can put another notch in their belts. I left the bearish wave count on the chart which calls today's bounce the completion of a 2nd wave correction and a stronger decline is to follow next. At the present time this is not my preferred wave count.

Sorry to make this confusing but I'm trying to keep up with a very corrective pattern and each new leg has the potential to change the pattern. And right now there are no nearby clear key levels to let us know which is playing out. It now takes a drop below 1477 to say something more immediately bearish is happeing and a rally above 1514 to tell us the ascending wedge idea is potentially in play.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 3:10:54 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 3:02:40 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 3:00:25 PM

DJ- CME Shares Seen Rising If DOJ Approves CBOT Merger Agreement

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:53:41 PM

I feel/observe great pressure building ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:52:48 PM

Dreyfus High Yield (DHF) $4.34 -0.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:52:16 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 1.8bp at 4.688% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:50:50 PM

Russell 2000 Index ($RUT.X) 821.74 -0.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:50:22 PM

Junk bond alert! ... PHF $10.30 +0.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:45:47 PM

VIX.X's MONTHLY 38.2% just ahead at 14.65. If broken to upside, next level would be MONTHLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:44:34 PM

SPY $150.19 -0.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:44:12 PM

VIX.X alert 14.43 +11.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:34:45 PM

Dow Jones Co. (DJ) $52.73 -0.65% ....

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:34:07 PM

CNBC - Reporting NWS's Murdoch offering board seat to Bancroft family

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:32:21 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:28:31 PM

TRINQ 0.79 ... still below 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:28:13 PM

TRIN 0.91 ... still below 1.00

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:27:55 PM

VIX.X 14.32 +10.57% ... session high has been 14.38. I would think "bears" want to see move above WEEKLY R2 to think "break below last week's low" on weekly interval bar chart.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 2:25:29 PM

VIX and ES are in sync today. Link

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 2:24:56 PM

The weakness following the DOW's new high this morning, which negated the bearish wave pattern I had on its chart, now makes me think we're going to get a larger 4th wave correction for its rally from March 14th before getting the final 5th wave up to new highs. We only got a 3-wave bounce off Thursday's low to this morning's high and that says it's part of a larger correction and not the end of the rally.

Using a 120-min chart to show price action from the March low, I'm showing a parallel channel that should contain any pullback, whether it goes sideways in a triangle or more of a direct drop to the uptrend line. Link

Note the size of wave-2 (the pullback from March 23rd to March 30th) and we should see a 4th wave correction roughly equal so that's why the parallel channel will be important to watch. This pattern suggests a correction this week instead of a new rally and that a new low below last Thursday's will not necessarily be bearish. In fact I doubt it will be any more bearish than just a pullback. This rally is not done yet.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 2:23:01 PM

ER's PDL is 824.40 let's see if it will now be resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:22:47 PM

DJ- US Dol: Planning Work Halted On Environmental Concerns

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 2:22:23 PM

Just ain't nuttin' bullish out there at all today. Link

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 2:20:16 PM

US $ has broken resistance after a small but important higher low on May 8th. Another reason to "think" Gold will head lower from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:19:04 PM

News Corp (NWS) $23.42 +0.51% ...

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 2:18:18 PM

Gold is testing support at 670.00 but the lower high at 693 and the lower low made Thursday tell me it could easily head lower. Next look of course will be at the US $ because the $ has a great deal of influence over Gold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:17:35 PM

Dow Jones (DJ) $52.66 ... fast market here.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 2:14:35 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. banks dramatically tightened their standards for approving individual real-estate loans in the first quarter of 2007, the Federal Reserve said Monday.

In particular, banks made it harder to get a subprime residential loan, the Fed reported. In its quarterly senior loan officer survey, the Fed said 31% of banks surveyed "considerably" tightened credit standards for subprime loans, while 25% of banks tightened those rules "somewhat." None eased standards.

For non-traditional residential mortgages, credit standards also went up. Eleven percent tightened those standards considerably, while 34% tightened somewhat, the central bank said. No bank surveyed eased standards for those loans.

Meanwhile, 15% of banks tightened credit standards somewhat for prime residential mortgages.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 2:11:50 PM

ER, the weaker market, breaks if PDL. Keep an eye on ES and see how it reacts around its PDL at 1500.50. It "should" be support and you "should" see a nice bounce because ES respects its PDR more than any market. If it does not bounce here then you know there is certainly something more bearish going on than we have had for weeks. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:11:20 PM

After all equity-based indexes in U.S. Market Watch turned red, BTK.X, DRG.X, OIX.X, XNG.X show fractional gains.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:10:06 PM

The 01:58:09 headline a tough pill to swallow.

Was one topic on this weekend's Meet the Press with Senator John McCain.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 2:08:21 PM

It is pretty obvious as to who has the ball now. This is a site for bears eyes. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:06:48 PM

I will say this now and test it tonight ...

IF the S&P 500 NH measures aren't greater than 30 at tonight's close, last week's "doji" may indeed mark near-term "top" for remainder of summer.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:02:41 PM

SPX 1,501 ...

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 2:02:07 PM

SPX slices through its 1501. 50 downside target. Now we'll see if the RUT's uptrend line holds. As the weakest index already, that would be a doubly bearish sign.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:01:53 PM

VIX.X 14.14 +9.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 2:01:33 PM

Swing trade put option alert ... for one (1) of the S&P Dep. Receipts SPY Jul $150 Puts (SYH-ST) at the offer of $3.10 ($2.90 x $3.10)

SPY $150.20 -0.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:58:09 PM

Iraq Panel Drafting Constitutional Changes To Seek Extension

DJ (partial) - A parliamentary committee set up to study amendments to Iraq's constitution has failed to agree on a number of issues and will seek a weeklong extension of its deadline to present a report to parliament, lawmakers said Monday.

The 30-member committee was to have presented its report Tuesday - four months after it was established. Amending the constitution to address Sunni Arab concerns is one of the key benchmarks for measuring political progress in Iraq.

But the committee was unable to reach an agreement on its report. Lawmakers said the committee will ask for an extension until Tuesday, the next time parliament is scheduled to meet.

Iraqi politicians said the major stumbling block was a provision about the future of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, which the Kurds want to annex into their semiautonomous northern region. Arabs and Turkomen object.

The constitution provides for a referendum by the end of the year in which Kirkuk residents will decide whether the area joins the Kurdish region or remains under central government authority.

Lawmakers cited other differences, including whether to describe Iraq as an Arab country as Sunnis had demanded, and the powers of the prime minister. But some Sunni officials said the widest differences were over Kirkuk.

Iraqis ratified the constitution in an October 2005 referendum, but substantial numbers of Sunni Arabs voted against it. The document was hammered out during protracted negotiations under intense U.S. pressure.

At the time, U.S. officials acknowledged that the document didn't satisfy Sunnis. But U.S. pressure to finish the draft was so intense that U.S. diplomats argued that the differences could be resolved later by amendments.

Sunni leaders agreed to sign off on the draft only after the Shiites and Kurds agreed to study amendments.

Under the constitution, the committee's recommendations will be voted on by parliament as a single package. If adopted by a simple majority, the amendments will be presented to the voters in a referendum.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:52:03 PM

Unusual Put/Call Option Activity from 01:40 PM EDT Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:50:42 PM

VIX.X alert 14.06 +8.57% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/14/2007 1:54:27 PM

Not only has the Dow begun closing 15-minute periods below that 15-minute 9-ema that I mentioned in my 1:10:50 post, but also the MID, another momentum index of late, has dropped below the neckline of a little H&S on its 15-minute chart, forming since early Friday. That tells me that short-term, at least, sentiment is souring a little, but it does not tell us anything beyond that, as yet. This is a time of day when it's typical to run stops and test support or resistance, so all we know for certain is that they're testing to the downside today during this typical stop-running time of day as the big-money people return from lunch. If support holds . . . well, you know what happens. I'm still watching the Dow as a sentiment indicator, watching to see if it now finds resistance where it earlier found support, on 15-minute closes at the 15-minute 9-ema, now at 13354.26. Gotta go now. Happy trading.

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 1:47:39 PM

The RUT is dropping lower than its Fib target for two equal legs down so it continues to look more bearish and would have me holding off on buying this until I see its uptrend line from March 14th hold (near 821.40), which it did last Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:47:06 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) alert 1,502.71 -0.20% ... undercuts WEEKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 1:46:07 PM

Two equal legs down in SPX today is near 1501.50 (ES 1505.75) so watch that level for some bullish divergences and other support signals to buy this dip.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:44:54 PM

A/D lines weak ...

NYSE 1,232:1,971

NASDAQ 1,003:1,973

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:40:25 PM

Teletech Holdings (TTEC) $34.03 -9.61% Link ... Englewood, CO-based provider of global business process outsourcing abnormally weak.

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 1:37:46 PM

Looking at the pattern in the RUT, since it looks the weakest and therefore most bearish, I'm going to assume for the moment that it too will rally higher before breaking last week's low at 818.56. If the move up from last Thursday is the 1st wave of an ending diagonal, similar to what I posted for SPX ( Link ) then today's pullback is the 2nd wave. Two equal legs down in the pullback would drop it to 822.56. This is based on the A-B-C wave count shown on this 5-min chart: Link

The pattern here suggests we'll see the RUT stair step lower this afternoon before setting up the next rally leg so if it plays out this way I'd look at it as an opportunity to buy the dip. The triangle B-wave in the pullback is usually a very good sign that it's only going to be a 3-wave correction before resuming the trend, up in this case. Getting the next drop as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:35:57 PM

PetMed Express (PETS) $12.76 +14.85% Link ... Abnormally strong on volume today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:27:29 PM

President Bush Directs Agencies To Develop Fuel Regulations By End of 2008

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:26:42 PM

President Bush: Addressing action to cut gasoline usage

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:25:40 PM

Citigroup Cuts South American Stocks On ForEx Risk, Valuations

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:24:47 PM

Colombia's Jan-Apr Tax Collection Up 4.3%

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 1:18:26 PM

We've got very flat a-d lines with a-d volume slightly above zero and a-d issues slightly below zero. The market itself is flat (ignore the DOW). Volume is on the light side--near Friday's volume which was the lowest for the week except last Monday's. Maybe Mondays are turning into blah trading days--last Monday was very flat before dropping off the cliff on Tuesday morning (which then got immediately reversed and rallied higher).

Tomorrow morning we get CPI data and NY Empire State Index before the bell. Makes you wonder if we'll get a repeat performance. The bond yields have been rallying the past 2 days and I wonder if they know something about the CPI data. Higher inflation data with a slowing NY Empire index could drop the market hard tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:13:56 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 5/14/2007 1:14:07 PM

Hi, guys, I'm checking in again for a moment. I'm watching the Dow today as a kind of sentiment indicator, since it's headed up while the TRAN is performing much differently, as is the BIX. Something has got to give, and I'm not sure what it will be: whether the Dow will pop higher and bears will surrender or whether the Dow will finally succumb to the weight of those other indices. However, I thought I'd let you know that the Dow has been finding support at 15-minute closes today at a Keltner line now at 13363.71. That line is dynamic, though, being the 9-ema on that chart. Until that stops serving as a bounce point (15-minute closes remaining at or above it, even if it pierces it during the 15-minute period), nothing has changed even short-term on the Dow. Given the momentum lately, I'm not sure it will mean that much if the Dow does close a 15-minute period under that line, but I sure know what it means when it continues to find support there. It means that the short-term trend (up) continues. Careful as the day's high is approached. Watch that Keltner line (9-ema) to see if the Dow shows any signs of weakening even short-term or continues to bounce from that line.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:06:30 PM

Should a/d lines get even, today's NH/NL indications look quite bullish and buyers could step up in meaningful way.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 1:03:07 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 1:01:19 PM

NDX looks like it could be forming a small H&S top when looking at its 15-min chart for price action since Friday morning. With a neckline break below 1890 it would have a downside objective back down to Thursday's low near 1875. If it has finished bouncing against this morning's drop then two equal legs down would drop it to 1880.

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 12:55:53 PM

Thanks to GM's rally today the DOW is outperforming the rest of the market. It even looks like a clean impulsive 5-wave move up from Friday morning. The others don't look nearly as strong and that difference between indices continues to make it very difficult to figure out the short term pattern here. The next strongest of the 4 is SPX and it looks like it's bear flagging here. It's now back under its uptrend line from April 12th, testing it again from below near 1507.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 12:44:14 PM

Accredited Home Lenders (LEND) $11.99 +0.84% ... Reuters Story Accredited Home dips as "significant" loss seen" Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 12:42:49 PM

Saw a headline from Dow Jones NewsWire that subprime lender New Century had delayed its quarterly financials. Currently seeking bankruptcy protection.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 12:38:51 PM

email response ... Yes! Here is updated (to Friday's close) CME Aug'07 and Nov'07 Regional Housing futures Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 12:22:51 PM

News Corp. (NWS) $23.46 +0.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 12:22:27 PM

Dow Jones Co. (DJ) $52.08 -1.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 12:21:15 PM

email response ... Price action I'd look for in regards to NWS/DJ deal falling through would be a NWS trade above its WEEKLY R1 ($23.81) and a DJ trade below its WEEKLY S1 ($50.91).

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 12:14:56 PM

12:00 Money Flows at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 12:08:30 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $76.00 +1.50% ... "X gets the square" and now has me observing stock stronger than I thought it could have been a couple of weeks ago. I thought stock might see resistance below $76.00, with near-term pullback to $71.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:49:54 AM

Caterpillar (CAT) $75.97 +1.45% ... 3 cents from $76.00.

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 11:38:17 AM

Here are two different views for SPX as far as where it could be headed, both bullish for the moment. The first is shown on this 30-min chart and the small ascending wedge idea for an ending pattern. Again, this is just speculation at the moment and based more on my thoughts about looking for how this rally might end sooner rather than later. Link

This would be a choppy price pattern and we would see bearish divergences develop as the pattern progressed so that's what I'll be looking for if this starts to pan out. The upside target, based on some Fib projections, would be around 1522. Keep in mind the March 2000 intraday high near 1552 and the closing high near 1527.

The 60-min chart here shows more bullish potential based on a price projection for the 5th wave in the rally from March 14th. I show the bearish wave count possibilities but based on the DOW breaking above last Wednesday's high I'm leaning towards the bullish wave count on SPX as well. Link

If we're into the 5th wave of the rally from March 14th then the first price projection is at 62% of wave-1 which is at 1537.10. I've projected that move to the trend line that is along the highs since March 21st, which crosses 1537 on May 18th, this Friday. That of course coincides with the end of opex week and as the Church Lady would say, isn't that special.

The daily chart looks bearish and that is keeping me very cautious about upside expectations. The lack of breadth in this market is worrisome for bulls and if not for opex week I might feel more bearish. I get the sense that this week could be the last hurrah before the "sell in May and go away" crowd takes leave of this market starting after opex.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:37:30 AM

Move Over, Skype: Intel's Backing Jajah ... BusinessWeek Story Link from last week.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:34:00 AM

Wal-Mart Boosting Electronics Offerings

Reuters Story Link

Includes eBay's Skype calling cards.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:29:31 AM

U.S. Steel (X) $110.69 -0.17% Link ... Has achieved/exceeded its bullish vertical count of $109.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:27:30 AM

China April Steel Products Exports May Set Record - Indus SHANGHAI

DJ- China's steel products exports may hit a record high of 7.16 million metric tons in April, far exceeding imports of 1.63 million tons, industry Web site Mysteel.com said Friday, citing preliminary data provided by the customs department.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 11:23:56 AM

$RUT - daily/120 minute/60 minute charts all went red last week and the 60 minute has now turned back green which is usually a great big sign to buy this dip but like I said last week you have to put a little of objectivity into trading and I would not be trying a long here.

Both the SPX's and DOW's 120 minute and 60 minute charts turned red last week and have now turned back green, giving you even more reason to try a long but I still cannot bring myself to get long here.

NAZ - same story at as the $RUT

MIDCap - Same story as the SPX and DOW.

$TRAN - interestingly the Transports' 60 minute did not turn back green like the SPX/DOW

Wilshire 5000 - same story as the SPX and DOW

Gold and Silver are on a "buy the dip" here because the daily/60 minute/120 minute all turned red last week and now the 60/120 have turned back green.

Crude's monthly is still red so according to the jtHMA I cannot take a long.

US $ 120 minute has now turned red but the 60 and daily are green. Monthly and weekly are red so only shorts here and I don't see any trade yet. The daily would have to turn back red before this is a sell the rally. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:23:51 AM

CRESCENT'S $1B IRAN UAE GAS DEAL MAY BE HIJACKED

DJ- A crucial deal involving Crescent Petroleum and Dana Gas to import gas via a $1 billion project into the U.A.E. from Iran could be hijacked by rival companies in the emirates, says a company official.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:23:09 AM

RICE SAYS NO COLD WAR IN RUSSIA RELATIONS

DJ- U.S. Secretary of State says that it is 'not an easy' time in Russia-U.S. relations, but that the tensions don't amount to a new Cold War. Rice is visiting Moscow amid growing tensions underlined by President Putin's criticism of the U.S.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:22:16 AM

BUSH TO SEEK ACTION TO CUT GAS USE

DJ- Two weeks before the start of the summer driving season, President Bush will seek to gain momentum for his plan to cut U.S. gasoline consumption by 20% over the next 10 years, with a formal announcement coming later today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:21:05 AM

CHINA CAUTIONS INVESTORS ON STOCK MARKET RISKS

DJ- China has reached for the brake pedal on its booming stock markets, saying investors must be educated on the risks involved and the government announcing plans to widen a struggling program for overseas investing.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:20:22 AM

WELLS FARGO MORTGAGE APPLICATION PIPELINE SOARS

DJ- Despite residential housing slowdown, Wells Fargo's backlog of new mortgage applications is up 19% this quarter, reflecting more refinancing of mortgages because long-term interest rates continue to be historically low.

WFC $35.55 +0.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:18:56 AM

eBay (EBAY) $34.06 -0.40% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:17:54 AM

APPAREL SALES DRIVE STRONG 2006 FOR E-COMMERCE

DJ- Sales of apparel, accessories and footwear on the Internet jump 61% last year to $18.3 billion, a new study shows. Gains catapult the category past computer hardware and software into No. 2 spot after the $73.4 billion travel category.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:16:51 AM

GM, FORD SHARES JUMP ON CHRYSLER SALE

DJ- Shares of General Motors and Ford both rise 5% after DaimlerChrysler agrees to sell a majority stake in Chrysler Group to Cerberus Capital Management. Meanwhile, Ford family says it is not looking to sell controlling stake in auto maker.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:15:47 AM

CERBERUS TO PAY $7.4B FOR 80% OF CHRYSLER

DJ- DaimlerChrysler says it will sell 80.1% of it struggling U.S.-based Chrysler division to private equity investor Cerberus. The deal allows Daimler to shed Chrysler's $18 billion of retirement and healthcare liabilities, which will be folded into a new Chrysler holding company. Deal has been backed by the powerful United Autoworkers Union. Daimler-Benz paid $36 billion for Chrysler Corp. in 1998.

DCX $82.95 +1.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:12:02 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 11:10:51 AM

The Smith Open Number system is telling you short on all markets. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 11:02:22 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 11:02:08 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Natural gas led the gains among the energy futures Monday, climbing as much as 2% to touch their highest level in more than a week as warmer-than-usual weather in the western U.S. and anxiety ahead of the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season fed concerns over the nation's supply and production levels.

Crude-oil futures also climbed to a level not seen since May 4, extending their prior-session gains as worries over supply disruptions in Nigeria as tight U.S. gasoline inventories helped send retail prices for the fuel to a fresh record level, according to data from the Oil Price Information Service.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 10:59:45 AM

AS Keene mentioned in his 10:47 post, the Dow made a high today of 13383, its most recent high was waaayyy back on May 9th at 13369. However, it is the only market to make a new yearly (and in the case of the DOW a new all time) high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:49:01 AM

EIA's Caruso: OPEC Should Increase Output For Sept. Meeting

Output increases needed to offset Nigerian losses.

Nigerian losses 'not good news' in tight product market.

U.S. gasoline prices should hit nominal record highs.

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 10:47:06 AM

With the DOW having made a new high, and negating its bearish wave count in the process (and the only one to do so at this point), I'm left wondering what happens next. The give back this morning has left the shorter term charts looking bearish. It's just a guess at this point but if we're going to get an ending pattern (an ascending wedge) for the final move up to cap off the rally this week, then it will be full of choppy price action that whipsaws both sides. Exercise a little more caution than usual right now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:45:53 AM

AIG: MAY BUY SUBPRIME MORTGAGES AT DISCOUNT

DJ- Now that other subprime mortgage lenders are running into problems with their portfolios, AIG sees opportunity and is considering the possibility of buying subprime loans at a discount, as others leave the market.

AIG $72.33 -0.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:44:50 AM

PAKISTAN BANKER CHARGED WITH INSIDER TRADING

DJ- SEC says a head of investment banking at Faysal Bank in Pakistan made more than $7.5 million in profits, including $5.1 million from TXU securities alone, after receiving phone calls from a Credit Suisse banker.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 10:43:21 AM

TICKS hovering around 0 are about as neutral as they can get yet considering how bullish the TICKS usually are the fact that they are not bullish today is bearish, IMHO. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:43:05 AM

NYBOT TRADERS DON'T BACK ICE IN CBOT MERGER

DJ- Nybot floor brokers say they aren't rooting for parent company Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in its battle with CME Holdings for CBOT Holdings. ICE said earlier it's evaluating its options after CME sweetens its bid, though still below ICE's earlier bid.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:42:01 AM

MORTGAGE WOES SPUR BANKS TO AUCTION HOMES

DJ- A surge of foreclosures over the past year or so leaves lenders struggling to sell a growing backlog of homes. Rather than relying on real-estate agents, the usual practice, some are turning to large-scale auctions to speed up the process.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 10:41:23 AM

It is always interesting to see how the markets are trading in relation to their overnight ranges. ER and NQ have broken their respective OH lows, ES has tagged its and YM has not yet even tested its ON low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:41:16 AM

MORGAN STANLEY UNIT EXPECTS PRESSURED PROFIT

DJ- Brokerage expects its asset-management group's profit margins to remain under pressure because of continued investments in its recuperating businesses. Its pretax profit margins in 2007 are likely to be about 20%, compared to 26% in 1Q.

MS $85.44 +0.34% ...

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 10:39:25 AM

Gold is losing it here but I don't see a corresponding move in the $ so I don't think this fall has much more to go. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:41:12 AM

COUNTRYWIDE ROLLS OUT REVERSE MORTGAGES

DJ- Lender launches reverse mortgage aimed at allowing seniors with pricier houses to convert homes' equity to greater income, marking the largest U.S. home lender's entry into one of the fastest-growing markets targeting baby boomers.

CFC $40.15 -2.26% ...

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 10:38:12 AM

VIX making new daily highs however tell me the bears have control. Link

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 10:36:46 AM

Here is how the AD line and volume have traded today. Nothing overly bearish or bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:27:42 AM

If we were to see a naked call squeeze like that last month, I'd have to think the "overlapping" VIX.X WEEKLY R1/MONTHLY Pivot finds resistance.

If not, then the "doji" on the SPX's weekly interval chart becomes a focus for bulls to protect profits.

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 10:25:25 AM

After regaining its broken uptrend line from April 12th, SPX is back down to it at 1506. It will need to hold it now otherwise it gets more bearish. A key level for SPX though is Friday afternoon's low just above 1500--as long as that holds then the bullish wave pattern stays intact. The NDX and RUT may give us a heads up (down) if their respective levels break.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:19:04 AM

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) $139.00 -1.10% ... no updates on CBOT. Looks like they are sticking with offer made in March at this point. With CBOT (BOT) $201.40 +0.02% trading above CME's $187.71/share offer, arbitragers see ICE or another entity potentially upping CME/ICE offers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:12:59 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Closed out 1/4 of the BOOM long. (71 shares for $10k=Full)

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:03:55 AM

Bullish swing trade long sell 1/4 position let's sell 1/4 of the Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $36.18 +1.68% position here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 10:02:31 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 10:02:22 AM

No real surprise here--we've got the DOW the strongest and the RUT the weakest. Using Jeff's snake analogy, is the tail going to pull the head down or vice versa?

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 9:47:41 AM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 60-minute interval chart with MONTHLY (pink) and WEEKLY (blue) pivot retracement at this Link

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 9:39:16 AM

SPX is back above its broken uptrend line from April 12th. Last Thursday's sharp decline was once again the time to buy. One of these days that won't work but the Thursday prior to opex week does appear to have been the head fake day again.

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 9:36:00 AM

The DOW has now broken last Wednesday's high just shy of 13369 so that negates the bearish wave count on its chart. I suspect the others will also follow to new highs. Welcome to another bullish opex week.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 9:21:52 AM

I have put a 20EMA (magenta) on this chart of the S&P cash index and as you can see it has traded above it since March 30. Now the S&P Cash index is definitely showing a bearish MACD divergence. Link

Keene Little : 5/14/2007 9:18:53 AM

At its high last night YM was only a point shy of of its Wednesday high (13407) so we could get our answer earlier rather than later if the equity market is able to push higher this morning. The metals came off their overnight highs along with the equity futures so they continue to act together--a continuation of the equity rally could see a continuation of the bounce in the metals.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 9:15:58 AM

Russell 2000 cash index has the weakest daily chart of the four markets we watch here. This sideways pattern will usually suggest a move higher but the pattern is very erratic so I'm not sure. If you look at the MACD you see it falling as price is moving sideways and although most technicians look at this a bearish divergence I have found this is the one MACD pattern where bearish is actually bullish. MACD falling as price moves sideways is bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 9:14:17 AM

Motherly Reminder:

My mother called this morning and wanted to remind us of the U.S. postage rate increases effective today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/14/2007 9:10:16 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 9:09:32 AM

Ad line and volume were very strong on Friday and the markets were almost able to reverse the entire drop we saw on Thursday. I will show some daily charts in a minute. Link

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 9:05:34 AM

US $ broke its PDLs overnight as Gold broke its PDHs, however, Gold is now testing its overnight lows. Oil hit a high of $63.00/bl overnight. Link

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 8:59:58 AM

Overnight range was very narrow and mostly gyrated around PDHs which just happened to be previous day closes as well. NQ had a bad tick around 7:30 last night and I am trying to ignore it.

This pattern suggests we have more upside in story for us today. Link

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 8:51:19 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Private-equity firm Cerberus Capital Management on Monday agreed to inject $7.4 billion into Chrysler Group in return for 80% of the ailing automaker, a move that effectively unwinds the deal struck between Daimler and Chrysler one decade ago.

Cerberus, which reportedly outbid Canadian auto-parts maker Magna International Inc. and private-equity firms Blackstone Group and Centerbridge Capital Partners LP, will take on Chrysler's pension and health-care liabilities owed to its workers and retirees, according to a statement from the firms.

The news sent DaimlerChrysler (DCX) shares up 3.7% in Frankfurt. DaimlerChrysler's shares have climbed nearly 30% going into Monday on anticipation of such a deal.

"Cerberus believes in the inherent strength of U.S. manufacturing and of the U.S. auto industry. Most importantly, we believe in Chrysler," said John Snow, chairman of Cerberus Capital Management and the former Treasury Secretary.

Jane Fox : 5/14/2007 8:45:30 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose Monday, extending their prior-session gains, as concerns over supply disruptions in Nigeria and tight U.S. gasoline inventories set a bullish tone.

Crude for June delivery gained 50 cents to stand at $62.87 a barrel in electronic trading. On Friday, the benchmark contract rose 56 cents a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"This morning, we are off to a higher start, as talk about an imminent two-day general strike to protest vote-rigging in the Nigerian elections, coupled with new trouble in Pakistan, is unnerving the markets," said Edward Meir, analyst at Man Financial.

Forty-one people died in two days of street violence in the Pakistani city of Karachi sparked by the suspension of a chief justice by President Pervez Musharraf, the BBC reported Monday.

And in oil-rich but unstable Nigeria, there has been a resurgence of kidnappings of oil workers as well as a number of attacks on pipelines.

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