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Keene Little : 5/16/2007 1:01:13 AM

Another reason the techs need to bounce on Wednesday--the COMP closed right at its February closing high. If that level doesn't act as support now then the techs are probably in trouble. And if the techs are in trouble then the broader market might also be in trouble.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 10:47:19 PM

End of day re-posts:

Wednesday's pivot table: Link and Link

The DOW is close to support by its uptrend line from last Friday, which I'm calling the bottom of its ascending wedge. It can't afford much lower than today's close without suggesting something more bearish is going on (or at least a much larger sideways pattern). Link

The upside pattern on SPX--the 3-wave bounce from last Friday to today's high--leaves me thinking that today was not THE high. It should finish with a 5-wave move up (even if it's in an overlapping ascending wedge). Therefore while it's possible there's a very small 4th and 5th wave in the rally to Tuesday morning's high, it would be a forced wave count to fit a bias and I try very hard to avoid doing that. That means we'll either get a larger pullback correction before heading higher again (light green) or head higher out of the gate tomorrow (dark green). Link

The ascending wedge idea still holds for SPX but it's now getting shallower. That means the upside Fib target near 1522 continues to look like the best possibility (instead of the higher 1538 as shown earlier today). While I don't like the bearish wave count, a break below 1477 would tell me whether I like it or not we probably put in THE high. By that time we would likely have good confirmation from the other indices.

The RUT will need to immediately rally out of the gate on Wednesday (which would create a bear trap here) otherwise the breakdown will look a lot more serious and it will be easy to call a top in this one. Link

NDX is set up the same as the RUT--it must rally immediately tomorrow otherwise the bearish wave pattern starts to look better and better. Link

Daily chart updates for CME and GOOG:

CME looks bearish here but in reality is in the middle of nowhere. It came close to retesting its broken uptrend line from August 2006. It has to drop all the way back down near 497 to close its gap so that's not helpful. However, a drop below 510 would be a heads up that the bears are in control. Link

GOOG broke below 462, a potential neckline of a H&S pattern over the past 6 weeks, and it broke its uptrend line from August. The price pattern is not very clear at the moment though and like CME it is in the middle of nowhere at the moment. I'd be leaning bearish on this one but not aggressively so. Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/15/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Keene Little : 5/15/2007 5:33:13 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 5:22:30 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 5:12:03 PM

Daily chart updates for CME and GOOG:

CME looks bearish here but in reality is in the middle of nowhere. It came close to retesting its broken uptrend line from August 2006. It has to drop all the way back down near 497 to close its gap so that's not helpful. However, a drop below 510 would be a heads up that the bears are in control. Link

GOOG broke below 462, a potential neckline of a H&S pattern over the past 6 weeks, and it broke its uptrend line from August. The price pattern is not very clear at the moment though and like CME it is in the middle of nowhere at the moment. I'd be leaning bearish on this one but not aggressively so. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 5:04:17 PM

June Unleaded (rb07m) settled up $0.0004, or +0.02% at $2.3016.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 5:03:04 PM

June Crude Oil (cl07m) settled up $0.71, or +1.14% at $63.17.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 5:02:19 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 4:41:45 PM

The upside pattern on SPX--the 3-wave bounce from last Friday to today's high--leaves me thinking that today was not THE high. It should finish with a 5-wave move up (even if it's in an overlapping ascending wedge). Therefore while it's possible we've put in THE high with a very small 4th and 5th wave in there, it would be a forced wave count to fit a bias and I try very hard to avoid doing that. That means we'll either get a larger pullback correction before heading higher again (light green) or head higher out of the gate tomorrow (dark green). Link

The ascending wedge idea still holds for this but it's now getting shallower. That means the upside Fib target near 1522 continues to look like the best possibility (instead of the higher 1538 as shown earlier today). While I don't like the bearish wave count, a break below 1477 would tell me whether I like it or not we probably put in THE high. By that time we would likely have good confirmation from the other indices.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 4:29:26 PM

The DOW is close to support by its uptrend line from last Friday, which I'm calling the bottom of its ascending wedge. It too can't afford much lower than today's close without suggesting something more bearish is going on (or at least a much larger sideways pattern). Link

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 4:17:47 PM

NDX is set up the same as the RUT--it must rally immediately tomorrow otherwise the bearish wave pattern starts to look better and better. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 4:13:53 PM

Today's most actives ... QQQQ $46.10 -0.77%, SPY $150.51 -0.01% and AMEX:IWM $80.97 -0.89%

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 4:06:34 PM

AMAT ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.28 on Revenue of $2.36B

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 4:04:50 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $19.78 -3.13% ... $20.04 extended on headline numbers.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 4:04:47 PM

The RUT will need to immediately rally out of the gate tomorrow (which would create a bear trap here) otherwise the breakdown will look a lot more serious and it will be easy to call a top in this one. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 4:04:16 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. April Housing Starts. Expected: -1.6%. Previous: +0.8%.

9:15a.m. April Industrial Production. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: -0.2%.

9:15a.m. April Capacity Utilization. Expected: 81.5%. Previous: 81.4%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 4:03:01 PM

USD/JPY 120.26

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 3:59:08 PM

NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2,525 -0.83% ... probes its 02/22/07 close.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 3:55:13 PM

The 10-year yield (TNX) jumped up to its downtrend line from June 2006 and pulled back today. It did close above its 200-dma so in order to break the pattern set the last time it did this in April it will need to continue its rally and break that downtrend line. Rates have been coiling for the past year so it's time to make a move now. My guess is still to the upside (meaning no rate cuts from the Fed on the horizon). Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 3:40:17 PM

YM tags its PDH and finds support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 3:32:14 PM

Doji-rama potential ... SPX 1,503.16 on its daily interval bar chart.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 3:25:25 PM

13-week Treasury Yield ($IRX.X) down 1.0 bp at 4.690%

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 3:25:21 PM

Mexico's 91-Day Cetes Yield closes up 0.01% at 7.41%

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 3:22:34 PM

Currency- Brazil's Real Closes At Six-Year Low of BRL1.981

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 3:11:36 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 3:10:15 PM

Interestingly NQ is now finding resistance at 1886. Link

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 3:09:00 PM

So far the DOW pattern is playing out as I had depicted earlier. It's uptrend line from last Friday is currently near 13362. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 3:08:20 PM

NASDAQ "inchworm" getting stretched at both end of NH/NL today.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 3:06:19 PM

I had mentioned that the upside pattern, if it's forming an ascending wedge, would likely be filled with lots of chop and whipsaws. So far that's exactly what we're getting. I still don't think we've seen the high. Earlier I had posted a possible wedge pattern that could take SPX up to 1538 ( Link ) but just to keep bulls on their toes, this 30-min chart shows the potential for just one more new high that will complete the rally: Link

I do not favor this shorter term pattern at the moment due to some internal Fib relationships and the trend lines, but if we get another leg up as depicted that fails at or below 1517 then take any decline from there seriously. If we first get a larger pullback from here then I see a strong possibility for a larger sideways consolidation pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 3:02:21 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 2:59:45 PM

Quite a bit of difference here, the Dow is not anywhere near its 50EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 2:57:47 PM

Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 2:57:38 PM

$RUT is testing its 50EMA at 815, just like Keene mentioned.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 2:49:42 PM

SPX has March 14 uptrend support near 1500 so that's a key level for now.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 2:47:36 PM

The RUT has dropped to the 815 level so watch for possible support near here.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 2:47:09 PM

Take a look at the internals here. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 2:41:29 PM

YM has not even tagged its overnight high yet! WOW! Link

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 2:39:25 PM

With the DOW still up 65 points here while the Nasdaq is down 10 and the RUT down almost 4 there should be little doubt as to what's happening--lots of rotation into the safety of the blue chips. Even the new high in the NYSE today is being met with a continuation of the negative divergence in the number of new 52-week highs. This market could easily press higher as market breadth continues to weaken, as it did into the February high, but what we're seeing happen here is a clear sign to the bulls to keep a watch on that exit door. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 2:39:05 PM

There goes NQ 1886!

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 2:38:11 PM

RUT.X 818.60 -0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 2:37:50 PM

Bullish swing trade stopped alert on the remaining 1/4 position in shares of Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $34.70

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 2:30:15 PM

Moral Majority Founder Jerry Falwell Has Died

DJ (partial)- The Rev. Jerry Falwell, who founded the Moral Majority and built the religious right into a political force, died Tuesday shortly after being found unconscious in his office at Liberty University, a school executive said. He was 73.

Ron Godwin, the university's executive vice president, said Falwell, 73, was found unresponsive around 10:45 a.m. and taken to Lynchburg General Hospital. "CPR efforts were unsuccessful," he said.

Godwin said he wasn't sure what caused the collapse, but he said Falwell "has a history of heart challenges."

"I had breakfast with him, and he was fine at breakfast," Godwin said. "He went to his office, I went to mine, and they found him unresponsive."

Falwell had survived two serious health scares in early 2005. He was hospitalized for two weeks with what was described as a viral infection, then was hospitalized again a few weeks later after going into respiratory arrest. Later that year, doctors found a 70% blockage in an artery, which they opened with stents.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 2:27:59 PM

Currency- Colombia's Peso Closes At COPI 1,996; Strongest Since April 2000

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 2:26:55 PM

Larry McMillan will be on CNBC's Street Signs today. Slated for 2:50EDT.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 2:23:02 PM

For the 3rd day in a row NQ finds support at 1886. I "feel" it will break today however. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 2:21:22 PM

YM is the only market that is still above its PDR. ES and NQ are still within their respective PDRs and ER is below.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 2:19:47 PM

This is exactly where NQ was stopped yesterday and you have to wonder if it will find support again today. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 2:18:25 PM

TICKS -1000

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 2:13:39 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $34.90 -2.43% ... WEEKLY Pivot $35.31, WEEKLY R1 down at $34.18. Associate with "small cap" for sure.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 2:11:59 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 692.44 +0.45% ... did just stick its head above WEEKLY R1 at 12:40-45 PM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 2:10:49 PM

Dow Indu (INDU) 13,435.20 +0.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 2:10:03 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 820.90 -0.17% ... second intra-day test of WEEKLY R1.

Small cap bulls want the rotation here.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 1:59:08 PM

The RUT continues to look more bearish than the others. Another test of its low near 818 is less likely to hold than this morning's test. If it does break then watch the 815 area for support--there's a downtrend line along the recent lows from May 8th that could be the bottom of a descending wedge that will finish its pullback correction before launching higher again. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 1:58:49 PM

TICKS have been all over the place today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:51:05 PM

200-day SMA alert ... Continental Airlines (CAL) $36.74 -1.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:49:29 PM

YM short target alert 13,456.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:49:00 PM

Swing trade call stopped alert with ICE $138.40, the IHH-FJ bid $2.90.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 1:48:14 PM

The pullback has become a little larger and now we should get a choppy decline that I don't think will amount to much. I'd like to see the DOW work its way down/over to its uptrend line from Friday to set up another rally leg as shown in my last chart (1:07).

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:40:33 PM

Day trade short alert ... for the YM 13,490 here, stop 13,508, target 13.456.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 1:30:33 PM

But it has not yet breached that tiny little higher swing low at 81.54.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:30:09 PM

General Motors (GM) $32.00 +4.50% ... "X gets the square(s) and a 3-box reversal higher.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 1:29:26 PM

Things are not looking good for the poor old greenback. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:27:06 PM

Dow Jones (DJ) $53.81 +0.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:26:11 PM

email response ... I don't know if DJ's rise to to $56 was on that headline earlier or not. If so, then that suggests there's a lot of arbitrage shorts that are jittery and ready to act on any NWS/DJ news.

I'm thinking "Deal or No Deal" news will have DJ halted prior to any news related to NWS.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 1:19:18 PM

The moderation in housing costs "is one of the most significant developments on the inflation front in a long while," wrote Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital Markets. If the good news persists, "then core inflation will probably turn out better than we have projected" and the Fed will have "more room to ease in the event that we are wrong" about the economy bouncing back.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 1:18:34 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Tightening lending standards shook U.S. home builders in May, sending a gauge of their confidence back down to a 16-year low, an industry trade group reported Tuesday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index slid three points to 30 in May, matching the 16-year low set in September. Economists were predicting the home builders' index would remain at 33, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

The results show that roughly one-third of builders have confidence in the housing market.

The report comes one day ahead of the government's report on housing starts and building permits for April. Economists expect 3% declines for both starts and permits.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:14:48 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 1:12:48 PM

TICKS back to +1000.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 1:08:42 PM

TRIN is a very bullish 0.59.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 1:07:04 PM

Looking at the DOW's rally, clearly the strongest index right now, its upside pattern still gives me the impression it's going to complete an ascending wedge to finish its rally. Because of the 3-wave moves it will leave me guessing somewhat on what the intraday wave count is but this chart shows my latest thoughts. Link

The trend line along the highs from March 23rd continues to hold price down, including today. The wave count shows a possible ending diagonal 5th wave (the ascending wedge) and based on Fib projections from the 1st wave up from March 14th, and some other internal projections, I'm getting 13565 as a good upside target. A pullback to 13400 tomorrow would be a good fit here and should launch another rally leg. As things change I'll keep this chart updated.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 1:05:47 PM

Internals are telling me this may be a very good dip to buy. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:05:22 PM

NASDAQ a/d line negative ...

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 1:04:48 PM

TICKS hit -1000

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:03:23 PM

This was my INDU target close for 2007.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:02:49 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 13,500 !

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:02:24 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 1:00:06 PM

Good Gravy ... with YM +107 at 13,494.

Just looked at DIA short interest of 15.1 million as of 4/13/07. Highest since 8/15/06. Link

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 12:48:04 PM

After pushing to another minor new high, it quickly dropped back. Almost looks like a small stop run as it happened across the board. The DOW continues to push up under the top of its parallel up-channel from March, currently near 13470 now. It's a good place for the bulls to take some profits off the table.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:43:07 PM

VIX.X 13.55 -2.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:42:32 PM

SPY 151.66 +0.73% ... May Naked call squeeze alert!

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:38:21 PM

Swing trade sell naked put alert for one (1) of the General Motors GM May $32.50 Puts (GM-QZ) at the bid of $0.75.

Be willing and able to take if exercised.

Stop goes $27.50, target $35.

GM $31.92 +4.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:28:15 PM

200-day SMA alert ... General Motors (GM) $31.94 +4.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:22:57 PM

DJ Survey- US April Housing Starts Seen -2.2%; 1.485M

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:22:17 PM

DJ Survey- US April Indus. Production Seen Up 0.3%

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:17:10 PM

VIX.X 13.64 -2.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:16:47 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,513.09 +0.66% ... a bit tentative still below MONTHLY R1/WEEKLY R1.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 12:16:06 PM

With a new high here we now have a small 5-wave move up from this morning's low. Expect at least a correction of this leg up to start at any time now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:15:04 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 13,468 +0.91% ... rings up a WEEKLY R2!

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 12:10:30 PM

The NDX chart, because of its continued choppy 3-wave moves, suggests either sideways or chopping higher from here. I don't see a way to call a market high based on what I've seen over the past week (and therefore removed the bearish wave count for now). We should head higher from here (dark green) or after further consolidation (light green). If we see the sideways triangle play out then the upside target could be considerably higher than the 1922.66 Fib target that I show for the dark green depiction. For now beware of the choppy whipsaws. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:09:28 PM

Fed Fund futures pretty quiet across the expirations. 94.76 near-term to 94.93 Dec'07.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 12:03:00 PM

13-week Yield ($IRX.X) down 2.0 bp at 4.680% ... probes 52-week lows.

Linda Piazza : 5/15/2007 11:59:15 AM

I'm stopping in for a second again. The SPX just again hit the 7-minute Keltner resistance, now at 1513.85 but a little lower a few minutes ago. Of course, that's also near the Wednesday post-FOMC high, so you could be seeing that resistance there without looking at a Keltner chart! The SPX has begun pulling back, but it won't confirm a double-top formation on the intraday charts until and unless it drops below the 1507.33 trough it hit at about 11:08 or so. Don't go thinking "double top" in this market environment until and unless that confirms. There's some crazy stuff the last week on these intraday charts. Moves are swift, wherever they're going, up or down.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 11:58:27 AM

Dow Jones (DJ) $54.80 +1.87% ... after spike to $56.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 11:57:16 AM

Dow Jones Comletes Acquisition of eFinancialNews Holdings ... Company Press Release Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:46:41 AM

Brave new world we are entering here. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:45:50 AM

YM to new daily highs. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:44:26 AM

$RUT and COMPX 60 minute charts have turned back red. HMMM

Gold's 60 minute has also turned back red. Another HMMMM

US $ 120 and 60 minute charts back to red as this market falls. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:40:19 AM

Well probably more like 2 pts.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:39:54 AM

Taking 1.50 pts here.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:32:27 AM

According to the Smith Open Number system ER is not the market I should have used for my long. I should have used ES or YM. :( Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 11:30:55 AM

WAL-MART 1Q NET RISES 8.1%, WARNS ON 2Q

DJ- Retail giant's gains come as it cut costs amid disappointing sales. It warns 2Q earnings may miss Wall Street expectations as it clears unsold spring apparel, projecting earnings of 75c-79c per share. Analysts expect 79c. Net income in 1Q is $2.83 billion, or 68c a share, matching expectations. Revenue climbs 8.5% to $86.41 billion.

WMT $47.63 -0.43% ...

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:30:02 AM

Nope stop at 826.3 there is a swing low at 826.40

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:29:28 AM

Raising my stop to 826.40

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 11:26:18 AM

U.S. Steel (X) $111.42 +0.98% ...

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:25:16 AM

Raising my stop to 825.80.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:24:14 AM

I really think my stop on this long should be at 824.40 but that is too far away from my entry and takes on more risk than I want to take on.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 11:24:05 AM

Venezuela Minister- Sidor Iron Ore Price Discount Up to $15/Ton

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:23:00 AM

AD line and AD volume support the bulls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 11:22:05 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:18:18 AM

Lowering stop to 824.9

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:17:45 AM

Long from 826.60 with a stop at 825.20

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:15:20 AM

I am now lowering my ER long to 826.60.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:14:50 AM

Here are the overnight charts showing how the $ and Gold are in sync today. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:11:42 AM

Daily lows so far are 824.40

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:11:05 AM

If ER makes another lower low I will take my long at 827.20 off the table.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:09:41 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - After languishing at the open, energy stocks staged a mid-morning turnaround, with investors drawing inspiration from a new all-time intraday high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and an upward move by crude-oil futures.

At last glance, the Amex Oil Index (XOI) was up 0.3%, shaking off a lower start, while the Amex Natural Gas Index (XNG) was ahead 0.2% and the Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX) was up 0.7%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was helping pull the sector higher, up 92 points at 13,441, as the April consumer prices showed less inflationary pressures on the economy than feared.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 11:07:25 AM

The head fake move down on Thursday has so far been reversed into opex week and I suspect that will continue at least into this Thursday.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:07:00 AM

I am going to take ER long at 827.20

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:05:30 AM

If you don't take into consideration the outlier bar on March 5th, VLO has traded above its 20EMA since January 19th. Now it is bouncing along its yearly highs telling me it is getting ready for another move higher. I though this market would have to take a retracement before it moved higher but obviously I was wrong on that one. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 11:02:53 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 11:00:51 AM

The US $ has not been able to break its resistance and is retreating to make another try. As long as the higher low made on May 7th is not breached I will say they is a very good possibility this market will break its resistance. This is one of the main reasons I think Gold will see lower lows before higher highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 11:00:28 AM

ICE RELUCTANT TO INCREASE CBOT BID

DJ- IntercontinentalExchange may be reluctant to increase its $10.4 billion bid for CBOT Holdings after CBOT's board last week rejected the energy bourse's bid in favor of a new merger deal with a crosstown rival.

ICE $139.75 +0.64% ...

BOT $198.91 -0.42% ...

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 10:57:17 AM

Natural Gas's double top at 8.10 is looking ominous. I have been bullish on this market and was looking forward to using the new ETF, UNG to get long once this trading range broke but I'm not so sure that it will anymore. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:56:36 AM

CHINA SOON TO HAVE MOST NON-US NASDAQ FIRMS

DJ- Chinese firms are likely to account for the most non-U.S. firms on the Nasdaq Stock Market soon, which would overtake Israel in term of listings. There are now 41 mainland Chinese companies listed on the exchange.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 10:55:01 AM

Looks like crude is making a bear flag here but with all the influence global politics have over this commodity I have a tendency to put less emphasis on the charts making this market a hard one for me to trade. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 10:52:48 AM

Gold is not looking strong here and I think it will head lower before upward. Support should come from the lows made in March at 634.50. Link

Linda Piazza : 5/15/2007 10:52:30 AM

That 7-minute Keltner channel line I mentioned in an earlier post is now at 1512.97, with the resistance holding if 7-minute closes hold beneath it. The SPX has to begin closing 7-minute periods beneath support now at 1509.62-1510.06, however, before the short-term trend (testing resistance) would even begin to change. Remember that these lines are dynamic and will move a little in the direction of price movement. They won't be the same place in an hour. I'm signing off again now. Be especially careful today. I'm not used to seeing prices swing from one side to the other of these 7-minute channels so much and so rapidly. It's going to be easy to be whipsawed out of any position with action like this.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:45:00 AM

AIG TO BUY REST OF 21ST CENTURY

DJ- AIG will pay $22 a share, or about $813 million, for the remaining shares of 21st Century, valuing company at roughly $1.93 billion, a 33% premium over 21st Century's closing price on the day of AIG's initial proposal.

AIG $72.47 (unch)

TW $21.74 +3.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:40:21 AM

News Corp. (NWS) $23.73 +0.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:39:58 AM

Dow Jones Co (DJ) $53.08 -1.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:39:31 AM

Bancrofts Stay Cool To Murdoch

WSJ- Family members hold conference call to discuss Rupert Murdoch's latest attempt to woo them into accepting News Corp.'s $5 billion bid for Dow Jones. But they don't respond to his push for a face-to-face meeting, leaving doubts about his chances of winning control.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:38:07 AM

BERNANKE SAYS DERIVATIVE RULES SHOULD BE PRINCIPLES-BASED

DJ- U.S. Federal Reserve chairman argues that regulators should take a principles-based approach to overseeing innovative financial products such as credit derivatives, while avoiding case-by-case or ad hoc rule-making.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:37:28 AM

REDBOOK RETAIL SALES RISE 2.5%

DJ- U.S. chain store sales rose 2.5% in the first week of May compared with April, besting targeted 2.2% increase, according to Redbook Research's indicator of national retail sales. Meanwhile, ICSC-UBS chain store sales edge higher.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:36:53 AM

AGILENT UP ON BULLISH 3Q FORECAST

DJ- Shares jump 6% a day after the firm says 3Q results should top estimates. Agilent posts fiscal 2Q net income of $123 million, or 30c a share, as revenue rises 6.5% to $1.32 billion. Excluding items, earnings of 43c are a penny shy of estimates.

A $37.96 +5.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:35:39 AM

US FORECLOSURES SURGE ON YEAR

DJ- Foreclosures nationwide skyrocket 62% in April from a year earlier, but edge 1% lower to 147,708 filings compared with March, according to RealtyTrac, which sees foreclosure actiivty staying above last year's levels for the rest of 2007.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:34:57 AM

AMGEN FALLS ON PROPOSED MEDICARE LIMITS

DJ- Amgen shares fall 5% after government proposes limiting Medicare payments for anti-anemia drugs by Amgen and Johnson & Johnson. Government says it would cover drugs under specified conditions to treat anemia in certain cancers.

AMGN $53.30 -4.92% ...

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 10:34:40 AM

The waning momentum and breadth during the rally from the March low has not deterred the bulls from driving the market higher, or allowed the bears to sell this off. The ascending sedge pattern as shown on this SPX chart says it's an ending pattern. It's doing what it did into February and it will end the same but this time worse. The question is where will it end. Link

As shown on the chart, a Fib projection where wave-5 = 62% of wave-1 (common in ascending wedges) is at 1537.79. It doesn't have to get there nor does it have to stop there but it makes for an upside target. Currently it's struggling with the broken uptrend line through the May 1st low (dotted line), as it did at yesterday morning's high.

A break of the lower uptrend line, confirmed with a break below 1500 would be the first heads up that a high could be in. Until then just keep running with the bulls. Be aware though that the decline from this pattern will be fast and strong (back below the March 14th low).

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:34:03 AM

TJX 1Q NET DIPS, HURT BY CHARGES

DJ- Discount clothing chain 1Q profit slips 1% to $162.1 million, or 34c, as costs related to a widely publicized breach of customer data offset revenue growth. Revenue climbs 6% to $4.11 billion.

TJX $27.95 -1.48% ...

Linda Piazza : 5/15/2007 10:33:02 AM

I don't know that it means anything today, but I often watch the SPX on a 7-minute Keltner chart. Last Wednesday, post-FOMC and yesterday, in the first push higher, the SPX hit upper Keltner resistance exactly on that 7-minute chart, and then was knocked back from there. It's hit it again this morning, with that resistance currently at 1512.70 on 7-minute closes. (That means that if prices pierce it during the 7-minute period, but then close back below it for that period, the resistance has essentially held.) This is just a 7-minute chart, and Keltner lines can be and are all the time violated, but I'm just offering a suggestion that if you're in bullish positions, that now is the time to make sure you have a plan in place for protecting those positions, especially if they're current-month option positions. The SPX could push higher all day, but then you won't be hurt by having those plans in place. If it falls from this resistance, as it has on three other occasions this week, you'll be helped by having that plan in place.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:32:53 AM

HOME DEPOT 1Q NET DOWN 30%

DJ- Net income falls to lower-than-expected $1 billion, or 53c a share, and sales rise 0.6% to $21.6, as home-improvement retailer continues to struggle during a tough housing market. Fiscal-year earnings seen at low end of range.

HD $38.57 -1.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:31:19 AM

Shell Confirms Bonny Light Oil Output Cut By 170,000 B/D

DJ- Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) confirmed Tuesday production from its Bonny Light oil field in Nigeria has been trimmed by 170,000 barrels of oil a day.

Shell spokesperson in Nigeria Precious Omuku confirmed reports of the outage to the Associated Press. A source close to the company said the move follows the occupation of the Bomu Manifold oil facility, a pipeline valve in Ogoniland in southern Nigeria.

Shell said the share of lost production run by its joint venture in Nigeria, Shell Petroleum Development Company, is 137,000 barrels a day. SPDC is a joint venture operated by Shell, which owns 30%, and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, with 55%, Total SA (TOT) with 10% and Eni SpA (E) unit Agip SpA with 5%.

London-based Shell spokeswoman Eurwen Thomas said the company is responsible for 41,000 barrels a day of SPDC's lost production.

The remaining 33,000 barrels a day of lost production is accounted for by "third parties," according to the source close to Shell in Nigeria.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 10:23:23 AM

Earlier today the VIX was making new daily highs as the AD volume was making new daily lows but the TRIN was a bullish 0.85 and the TICKS were hovering around 0. Now the VIX is making new daily lows, AD volume new daily highs and the TRIN and TICKS now concur with the bullishness. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:16:06 AM

Utilities HOLDRs (AMEX:UTH) $151.81 +0.95% ... the "hunger for yield" and a new 52-weeker.

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 10:12:50 AM

The DOW has pushed back up to the top of its up-channel which has held back the rally since April 25th, currently near 13450 (cash).

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 10:05:48 AM

YM has indeed pushed back up to that 13440 pre-market level and now pushing higher still. And nice rally off the test of the low for the RUT.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 10:02:10 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 9:56:46 AM

The RUT, being the weakest index, looks like it could be completing a 5-wave move down from yesterday's high. At the same time it's testing last Thursday's low near 818 so it's a good place for the move down to end and start at least a bounce. If it does bounce from here it will leave a bullish divergence against last week's low. Be careful if you're short ER.

Linda Piazza : 5/15/2007 9:54:41 AM

Checking in for a moment, I notice that the RUT is currently testing last Thursday's low of 818.56, with the RUT at 818.64 as I type. Market bulls certainly want that to hold, while bears want the opposite. Another momentum index of late, the MID, has erased the early morning gains, and heads down to test a rising trendline off last Tuesday's low, with that at 887.60, if I'm eyeballing it right, and with the MID at 888.41 as I type. This is a dangerous time for bulls and bears alike, so be careful. Consider watching what's going on with these two indices as guidance to who is temporarily at least winning the bull vs. bear war.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 9:46:04 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 9:42:58 AM

This morning's rally in the SPX has confirmed what the DOW did yesterday--it has left yesterday's pullback as a 3-wave (corrective) move. The techs and small caps continue to sport a more bearish impulsive looking pattern to the downside so I'm not sure yet whether we've got a split in the market (which would be bearish) or if they'll just lag behind any effort by the DOW and SPX to rally.

The 3-wave rally off last Thursday's low followed by the 3-wave pullback continues to support the idea that we'll either get a choppy sideways consolidation this week or a choppy move higher in an ascending wedge. In either case it says we haven't seen the market highs yet, at least for the DOW and SPX. It also says be careful about the whipsaws.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 9:37:49 AM

Bullish swing trade call reestablish stop alert for ICE and the IHH-FJ at $138.40 in the underlying.

ICE $139.04 +0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2007 9:29:59 AM

Swing trade bullish call cancel stop alert ... with ICE $137.60 pre-market, cancel stop of $138.40.

Will adjust after options market opens.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 9:23:44 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities jumped in March, led by private investors' purchases of Treasury bonds and notes as well as by official institutions buying government agency bonds, the Treasury Department reported Tuesday.

Net foreign purchases of long-term securities rose to $107.9 billion in the month, up from February's $77.9 billion, according to the Treasury's international capital, or TIC, data. Private investors boosted the March total by buying $30.7 billion in Treasury bonds and notes, more than double the amount purchased in February.

Official investors like central banks, meanwhile, bought $12.6 billion in government agency bonds, three times the amount they bought in February.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 9:22:33 AM

NAZ is testing its 20EMA (magenta MA) but is supported by a zone defined by the Feb high an May low. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 9:19:04 AM

Same story here. Link

Keene Little : 5/15/2007 9:16:33 AM

Equities came screaming out of the hole they were in after dropping in overnight trading. I'm not sure what happened just before 6:00 AM but YM shot higher, with some volume, before dropping sharply back down to its overnight low in about 15 minutes. That swing alone was almost 90 points. The post-8:30 rally has not equalled that pre-6:00 AM spike to 13440 which was another all-time high. It'll be interesting to see if that's where it's headed again after the bell.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 9:16:23 AM

It looks like S&P Cash index has decided to move sideways to burn off its overbought condition instead of making a healthy retracement like I think it should. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 9:16:10 AM

The Russell 2000 Cash index is bumping along yearly highs and has defined a trading range albeit a wide and messy range but a trading range all the same. Many look at a MACD falling as price moves sideways as a bearish divergence but when price is in a sideways move as it is here and MACD falls I read that as bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 8:57:44 AM

The commodities don't usually react to economic data but the $ will react to inflation data so then in turn Gold will as well. My $ chart is on a 20 minute delay so I am not seeing the total reaction in the $ yet but my guess is that it is on its way to test overnight lows. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 8:53:15 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Home Depot Inc. on Tuesday reported a 30% drop in quarterly profit, blaming the faltering U.S. housing market as well as unusual weather, and forecast a weak home-improvement market for the rest of the year.

The Atlanta-based home-improvement giant (HD) also updated its full-year earnings outlook and now sees profit coming in at the low end of its prior target. Shares of the blue-chip retailer fell 3.6% in premarket trading.

"The housing market continues to be a challenge, and erratic weather conditions across the United States negatively affected our spring selling season," said Frank Blake, Home Depot's chairman and chief executive, in a statement.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 8:40:35 AM

The equity markets really liked the data out at 8:30. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.5% but the "core" CPI only took a 0.20% jump. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 8:34:46 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Conditions for New York area manufacturers improved slightly in May, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Tuesday.

The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 8.0 in May from 3.8 in April.

Readings over zero indicate expansion. This is the highest level of the index since February, when the index dropped sharply from 24.4 to 1.9 in March.

The increase was in line with expectations of Wall Street economists.

In May, new orders, shipments and unfilled orders improved. The prices paid index retreated but remained relatively high. The employment index ticked up slightly.

The Empire State index is of interest to traders primarily because it's seen as an early forecast of the Institute for Supply Management's May national factory survey due out in two weeks. In April, the ISM manufacturing jumped to 54.7%, its highest level in over a year, easing fears of a dramatic slowdown in the U.S. economy.

The Empire State index took a back seat to the April report on consumer price index. The April CPI rose 0.4% and the core rate, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2%.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2007 8:32:53 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer prices increased 0.4% in April, boosted by increases for energy and groceries, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

Excluding food and energy, however, the core consumer price index rose 0.2% as expected, cutting the annual gain in the core down to a one-year low of 2.3%.

The CPI is up 2.6% in the past year. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the CPI to rise 0.5% in April. The CPI increased 0.6% in March, with the core up 0.1%.

The moderate core inflation in April could take some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. But at its meeting last week, Fed officials looked past the benign core inflation figures for March, and said inflationary pressures are elevated and remain the greatest risk to a stable economy.

With prices up, average wages up and working hours down, real weekly earnings fell 0.5% in April, the government said in a separate release. Real weekly earnings are up 0.9% in the past year.

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