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Keene Little : 5/16/2007 11:29:27 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Chart updates (60-min):
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/16/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 7:58:26 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $48.53 -0.93% Link ... $0.50 box to match futures.

Still some downside RISK to $46.50. REWARD?

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 7:54:28 PM

Great Question on PTR! ... OK, now what about Citigroup (C) ... what was the news a couple of days ago? BIG seller registering stock. (see ALL of my C comments that day)

What's the news today? BIG buyer buying stock.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 7:54:19 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $130.50 +1.77% ... PnF chart via Dorsey/Wright at this Link

StockCharts.com's PnF chart of PTR Link where they penalize a stock's chart for payment of dividend.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 7:49:29 PM

email response for PetroChina (PTR) ... Yes! The Fidelity news regarding the sale of their PTR holdings is out (see today's 11:30:17 AM). As I review my MM trade blotter, and commentary, we put the stock back on 01/04/07 with the PTR-NF $2.35 and closed out on 01/10/07 at $8.80 when the stock traded $122.59.

Now, we then went call the stock on 03/23/07 and then again (as PTR's PRICE rose above 03/23/07 entry) on 03/29/07.

Now, remember the day when I alerted traders at the 200-day SMA on 5/03/07 as the stock traded $117-ish? Remember how there was news that morning regarding their parent company's HUGE oil find? But the stock did NOTHING for several hours!

I'm thinking Fidelity was still selling their position, even then! Once exhausted, demand took greater control.

Now, See that GAP DOWN on 02/27/07?

Ok ... maybe that's the day that Fidelity gave the order to their trader(s) to begin selling the position due to the shareholder pressure.

Now ... from the news items I've posted in the past, who else is a "possible" seller? Fidelity is out, gone, their done (less 9%). Yes! Mr. Buffett.

Now ... weigh that against the current risk/reward.

PTR's trade at $130.00 gets the stock's PnF chart back on a buy signal, and established a preliminary bullish vertical count to $172.

RISK to a sell signal at this point is to $108.

So, knowing what we now know, and measuring against RISK/REWARD of $10.50/$41.50, is a new bull position in PTR worth the RISK?

Yes! The selling of PTR by a fund company the size of Fidelity could EASILY have kept the stock down.

What if YOU were the trader at Goldman Sachs, or any number of traders that execute orders for Fidelity, that got the call from your client at Fidelity to liquidate the position.

Then one day, another client calls you, say from Janus, and asks you about picking up 200,000 shares at $115-$120 net $119.00. What you gonn'a say?

No, you would NEVER say "Fidelity is dumping, wait awhile." That would lose you two clients (Fidelity and Janus) and might get you some time in the big house.

You might say, "uh... stocks under some pressure here and just can't get any traction. How about some CNOOC (CEO) instead?

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:55:54 PM

Current OPEN MM profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:50:59 PM

For future use only ... those SPG-SB are $5.80 x $5.90.

On 04/02/07 they traded $4.50 intra-day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:48:11 PM

T $41.14 +1.85% Link ... closes at a new 52-weeker.

Some sort of a doji on 05/03/07.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:48:03 PM

Sun of a gun ... SPG $106.67 -1.70% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:39:27 PM

I'm already writing Monday's Market Wrap.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:38:13 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $34.71 +0.57% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:36:14 PM

I'd have to say the little Weebles have wobbled, but they haven't fallen down.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:31:59 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 820.20 +0.73% Link ... after kissing its rising 50-day SMA (811.32).

See both NYSE and OTC 10-week and 30-week bullish %.

Good gravy! ... check out the RUT.X with a 150-day SMA too.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:17:08 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:10:55 PM

General Motors (GM) $31.74 -0.71% ... closed back below its 150-day SMA ($31.94), but above its 50-day SMA ($31.01)

See today's 12:20:43 PM and 11:45:21 AM)

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:10:51 PM

Olin (OLN) $18.84 +4.60% ... got roll'n

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 5:10:45 PM

eBay (EBAY) $33.25 -0.74% ... closes back above its 50-day SMA ($33.23)

See today's (12:29:08 PM, 12:38:44 PM and 12:54:35 PM)

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 4:42:25 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 4:39:27 PM

JNJ $63.05 +1.98% ...

C $54.91 +4.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 4:37:16 PM

YM 13,527. I'd have put the bulls target at WEEKLY R2 at most. I was thinking a close at WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 4:32:02 PM

Dow Industrials close at record high!

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 4:30:50 PM

We had a "minor" gas leak in the neighborhood this afternoon, but things look safe now.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 4:29:00 PM

Sssseeeee you tomorrow Jane!

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 4:18:43 PM

A little higher followed by a pullback will then hopefully give us one more push higher to set up a longer term short play. There's a good chance we'll get a pullback first tomorrow morning before proceeding higher to finish the leg up to where I've got "wave-iii" on the chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 3:56:46 PM

YM short stopped alert Traders short the YM from 13,491 should have been stopped out when the YM traded 13,502.

I'll update things later this evening.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 3:54:16 PM

I have just found a rattlesnake in my backyard so I think I will be gone for the day.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 3:47:32 PM

Oh yeee Gold is taking a huge drop here. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 3:42:12 PM

Needless to say the DOW's 60 minute jtHMA has now turned back green.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 3:40:58 PM

So much for the ominous gravestone doji. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 3:38:42 PM

If I had not overthunk that last YM long I would have put an upside target at PDH, 13517 which is where YM is now trading.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 3:29:58 PM

You do not want to be short here. Link

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 3:23:46 PM

The NDX pattern, being potentially as weak as the small caps, has an interesting setup here. The weekly chart looks bearish (this will be shown in tonight's Wrap-- Link ) and the short term chart has what could be a very bearish EW count with a couple of 1st and 2nd waves to the downside. If it makes a new low below today's then it will likely rip to the downside. A 40-50 point decline would be a typical move from this setup. Link

But like the DOW and SPX, with their ascending wedge patterns still in play, we could see both the NDX and RUT struggle higher to at least test previous highs. The upside potential I see for NDX, based on two equal legs up from May 1st, is at 1915.40.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 3:06:02 PM

Door bell ... I'll return in a minute or two.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 3:01:42 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 2:47:22 PM

Isn't it interesting how the Dow has traded below the blue trendline and is now trading above it? Obviously this is an important trendline. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 2:45:24 PM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON- World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz, who has been tenaciously holding onto his job, is now negotiating over the conditions of his resignation, according to people familiar with the deliberations.

Mr. Wolfowitz is said to be seeking a public acknowledgement of his service to the Bank and that both he and the bank share responsibility for the recent tensions arising from allegations that he improperly pushed for raises and promotions for his girl friend, a bank employee. Having heard from Mr. Wolfowitz in person Wednesday, the World Bank board was to have convened this morning to deliberate on his fate. That session was delayed at the request of the U.S. representative.

Earlier today, Mr. Wolfowitz canceled plans to travel this week to Europe for a World Bank conference on development.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:37:15 PM

YM short lower stop alert to 13,502.

YM 13,478

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 2:33:54 PM

It's likely we'll see at least a pullback if not a sideways consolidation, possibly right into the close. If it pulls back instead of going sideways I don't expect much so shorting it here would be likely for a small scalp. But just keep in mind--choppy and whipsaws so pretty much anything goes here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:19:15 PM

Day trade short setup cancel order alert .. for the AMR short.

AMR $26.53 +4.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:18:29 PM

YM short alert here at 13,491, stop goes 13,510, target 13,445

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:16:33 PM

Oh, I see it now Jane (01:54:16) ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:11:43 PM

NYSE a/d 1,900/1,334

NASDAQ a/d 1,609/1,376

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:10:33 PM

JNJ $54.51

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:10:19 PM

C $54.91 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:10:06 PM

YM 13,492 ... best levels

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:07:32 PM

SPX 1,509.20 +0.54% ...

SPY $151.15 +0.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:06:19 PM

It's "in the zone!"

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 2:05:55 PM

It also tells me long positions will not have a lot of follow through.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:05:53 PM

VIX.X 13.74 ... smack on MONTHLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 2:05:18 PM

This relatively weak AD line gives me little faith in long positions and certainly helped me to exit the long YM when I did. Link

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 2:04:49 PM

Thanks to Bret for letting me know my DOW 30-min chart posted at 1:16 is yesterday's. Here's today's: Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:04:25 PM

AMR $26.63 +4.92% ... high so far has been $26.80.

WP $26.83 and DAILY R2 $26.89.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:01:29 PM

"Pain" has been delivered to the C $52.50 long puts.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 2:00:41 PM

C ... $55 calls are biggest OI at 39,968. Showing DnTick/UpTick currently 260:196 $0.30 x $0.40 with some takers at $0.40.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:59:09 PM

Ah gee Jeff this fickle trader bailed already. No guts here for sure.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 1:58:31 PM

C $54.92 +4.03% ... back for a look-see at WEEKLY R2.

Better check $55 strike OI.

Hang in there Jane. Not sure where your target is, but if C get's squeezed above $55 .... then ...

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 1:58:10 PM

Even the RUT has managed to rally back up inside its descending wedge pattern. That's a buy signal. A stop on a long play on the RUT belongs just below the last low of 811.45 around 12:40.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:55:42 PM

YM could just move sideways but it could also move down and stop me out before it has a chance to rally again.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:54:56 PM

That last rally was just to far and too fast.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 1:54:35 PM

NYSE building 1,779:1,436

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:54:33 PM

I am going to take my YM long off the table here because the TICKS and CCI are telling me we need to retrace.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 1:54:16 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,512:1,470 now.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:51:53 PM

YM's CCI got to +283 that is quite overbot so expect a retracement.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:49:18 PM

TICKS made a high of +1281 on that last little rally.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:47:35 PM

The AD line is a measly +352 so I am not expecting a lot of follow through here.

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 1:46:09 PM

Finally getting liftoff.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:45:53 PM

Raising my stop now to 13444.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 1:45:52 PM

Go Get'm Jimmy C!

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 1:45:37 PM

Olin Corp. (OLN) alert! $18.49 +2.66% ...

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:45:18 PM

Oh I love how the VIX talks to me. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:41:40 PM

These are why I took a long and the Smith Open number system is why I used YM. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:40:34 PM

I feel like a fish out of water trading YM. You get so much more bang for your buck with ER.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 1:38:15 PM

JNJ 54.39

C 54.84

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:38:14 PM

I will take a long YM here with a stop just under the swing low at 13433 at about 13429.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 1:37:11 PM

YM 13,469

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:35:18 PM

Here is the Smith Open Number system charts. ER is a bearish +1, ES a neutral +7 and YM a bullish +10. Quite a divergence! Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 1:32:36 PM

Day trade short setup alert ... look to short shares of AMR Corp. (AMR) $26.71 +5.24% ... should they trade $26.89.

IF filled, stop goes $27.09 to begin, target $26.25.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:30:13 PM

Oh my goodness the DOW's 60 minute chart has actually gone red!!! A first since May 11th!

Interestingly the SPX daily and 60 are now red. We had to have the 120 go red before the daily and then the 60 and 120 go back green and now the 60 is back red Whew!

Mid cap just went from all green to daily/120/60 red.

Ditto for the Wilshire 5000.

Another oh my goodness - Gold's weekly is now red a first since November! (a lot of exclamation marks today)

It is not much of a surprise that the US$ is now getting mostly green. (no exclamation marks here) Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 1:18:04 PM

YM short setup cancel order alert ... Please cancel my order to short the YM at 13,469 (from 12:02:13).

YM 13,449

Low/High since ordered has been 13,433/13,464

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:18:56 PM

Well look at here. That little bitty swing low that I said would have to hold did hold and the US $ is on a tear. I believe this market will break its resistance and make a higher high. I have been noticing this bearish market making a bottom for days now and this is NOT good for goldbugs. Link

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 1:16:13 PM

There's not a whole lot of get up and go to today's market. The same ascending wedge idea for the DOW holds as long as this morning's low is not violated. If that were to happen we would also surely be getting a breakdown in the RUT and the combination would look a lot more bearish. It looks weak here and it's hard to want to be long the market but the bulls still control the ball even though they're fumbling at the moment. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 1:14:36 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:14:15 PM

Here are your overnight ranges. $ and Gold are certainly in sync today. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:13:12 PM

Oil breaks its bear flag and I suspect support at $61.00/bl will break as well. That is if we don't get some political debacle that pushed this commodity back upward. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:11:11 PM

The double top Natural Gas made this month has clearly defined resistance and I would need a close above this level before I take a long in the Natural Gas ETF, UNG. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 1:08:33 PM

Gold is breaking support here and is now testing its 100EMA. Guess I should have shorted this market after all. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 1:03:03 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 12:56:50 PM

SPX continues to find support at its uptrend line from March 14th through the May 10th low, currently near 1502.60. Not much of a change from last night's posting of its 60-min chart: Link If it breaks below this morning's low we could see at least a quick trip down to the 1490 area. Otherwise I'm still expecting the ascending wedge idea (dark green) to play out over the next week or more (expect ugly choppy whipsaw hard-to-trade price action in this case).

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 12:54:35 PM

eBay (EBAY) $32.69 -2.41% ... daily interval bar chart at this Link

With nested retracement, 50-day SMA and 150-day SMA.

My MM Profiles currently holds a BULLISH 1/3 position.

BULLS want to see $31.15 hold support at a minimum.

Stock fall below 50-day SMA today. May be "drug lower" by broader OTC? (see 12:38:44 and 12:29:08)

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 12:38:44 PM

OTC 10 Week Bullish % found at this Link

After seeing a 3-box reversal back lower on May 10th, yesterday's action did see an addition decline to 50% (49.33%).

We can quantitatively say that of the roughly 3,000 stocks listed on this exchange, about 1/2 closed below their 50-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 12:29:08 PM

OTC, or NASDAQ Comp 30 Week Bullish % found at this Link

Yesterday's action did see the OTC 30-week bull % reverse back lower by 3-boxes to 54% (53.90% actual).

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 12:27:38 PM

We're getting the pullback now and so far it's a 3-wave move (looking primarily at the DOW and SPX) so any push back above the last high just before 12:00 should continue higher and makes for a long play. Just trade quick and don't hang onto any trades--we're in a choppy pattern that could continue into next week.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 12:20:43 PM

NYSE 10 Week Bullish % found at this Link

Yesterday's action did see a "sell signal" for the NYSE 10-week bull % at 66% (64.74% actual).

This would be a shorter-term SMA bullish % measure of roughly 3,000 stocks.

See today's 11:45:21 and 11:40:43.

For those that played "contrarian" to Investor's Intelligence bullishness in March, now may be the time to be "contrarian?"

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 12:18:25 PM

It looks like the small consolidation in the metals is done--getting a pretty good drop right here. Jane, you sure you don't want to join me on the dark (short) side of the metals?

Silver (YI) is hitting an uptrend line along the two previous lows in January and March, currently near 12.88 which YI just tagged. This is potential support for at least another bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 12:09:39 PM

I'm thinking YM goes out around 13,440 today.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 12:07:55 PM

YM 13,446 ...

JNJ $63.25

C $54.74

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 12:02:13 PM

YM short setup alert Looking to short the YM at 13,469. Stop goes 13,490, target 13,430.

YM 13,456

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 11:56:42 AM

Looks like a nice little 5-wave move up off the low. That should be telling us the bottom is in and the short term trend at least is now up. Look for corrective pullback as an opportunity to buy the dip for at least another leg up.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 11:45:21 AM

NYSE 30 Week Bullish % found at this Link

Yesterday's action did see the NYSE 30-week bull % reverse back lower by 3-boxes to 70% (69.64 actual).

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 11:43:00 AM

After breaking its uptrend from March 14th NDX is now bouncing back up. It needs to keep going otherwise it'll be a kiss goodbye against it (near 1876 currently).

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 11:40:43 AM

Investor's Intelligence Poll: Bullish Sentiment Higher

DJ- Bullish sentiment rose among financial advisers surveyed in the weekly Investors' Intelligence poll from last Friday.

The percentage of financial advisers who are bullish on the market rose to 54.3% from 53.3%, while bearish sentiment fell to 19.6% from 20.0%.

The percentage of financial advisers expecting a market correction fell 19.6% from 20.0%.

In the week ended Tuesday, 60.20% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange were above their 10-week moving averages.

Also, 70.04% of NYSE stocks were above their 30-week averages.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 11:34:03 AM

C $54.46 +3.16% ...

JNJ $62.85 +1.66% ...

YM 13,435 ...

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 11:30:58 AM

The RUT, no surprise, is the closest to breaking down but it's still possible to call this morning's drop as part of a throw-under of its descending wedge. But it will have to reverse back up now. Any bounce that fails at its trend line (about 814.50 now) will be bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 11:30:17 AM

Fidelity Cuts Stake In PetroChina by 91%

FT.com Story Link

PTR $129.78 +1.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 11:17:27 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 11:13:33 AM

NQ breaks 1886 again.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 11:02:43 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 11:00:00 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:59:55 AM

Estimating : EIA's Crude Oil # Days Supply rising to 22.49 from prior week's 22.4 Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:48:47 AM

My Crude Oil # Days Supply rises to 22.11 from prior week's 21.99.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:47:59 AM

EIA: Weekly Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (%) edged up to 89.50% from prior week's 89.03%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:46:45 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity rose by 14,000 barrels/day to 17.469 million barrels/day.

Note: This is a record high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:45:22 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs into Refineries rose by 34,000 barrels/day to 15.34 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:44:03 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs into Refineries rose by 93,000 barrels/day to 15.6 million barrels/day.

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 10:47:01 AM

No get up and go yet but nor is the market breaking down. The market is on hold here waiting for something to kick start a direction.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:41:47 AM

EIA: SPR Stockpiles rose by 132,000 barrels to 689.6 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:40:41 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles down 48,000 barrels to 39.99 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:39:25 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles down 600,000 barrels to 60.26 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 10:38:37 AM

Russell the only market to break its ON lows so don't expect any followthrough. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:38:30 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles up 992,000 barrels to 119.75 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 10:36:56 AM

TICKS hit a low of -782 on that last sell off.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:36:12 AM

EIA: Weekly Reformulated Gasoline Stockpiles up 74,000 barrels to 2.36 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:34:52 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles up 1.76 million barrels to 195.23 million barrels.

Still down 11.14 million barrels vs. this time last year.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:32:52 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 1.06 million barrels to 342.2 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 10:30:21 AM

This is about as close to shorting the Gold market as I have ever been. No Jane do not short Gold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:24:27 AM

WFC recent high $36.99 on 10/20/06. Recent low $33.01 on 3/14/07.

A penny saved is a penny earned.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:22:27 AM

Well's Fargo (WFC) $35.87 +1.27% ... poor Risk/Reward based on Dorsey's PnF chart. RISK to sell signal is currently assessed to $28 in underlying, REWARD to bullish vertical count $39.50 in underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:19:53 AM

JNJ ... This dividend payer's PnF chart different (more accurate) on Dorsey/Wright than StockCharts.com's, which adjusts historical price LOWER for dividends. Dorsey's bullish vertical count to $71.

Longer-term RISK/REWARD from $63.00 tabulated at $3/$8.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:16:12 AM

Sector Status Change ... Yesterday's action saw Dorsey/Wright's TEXTiles/Apparel reverse back lower from "bull confirmed" to "bull correction" status.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:13:25 AM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $62.92 +1.77% Link ... very good risk/reward long term.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:11:37 AM


DJ- Warren Buffett now holds 48.7 million Johnson & Johnson shares and increases his stake in Wells Fargo, but cuts his holdings of Ameriprise and H&R Block. He also reports stakes in Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern.

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 10:10:55 AM

After the initial small pop higher out of the gate the market has stalled. The RUT is back down near yesterday's close and this will be an important level to hold (marginal new low is OK) in order to maintain any chance of a bullish resolution here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:10:16 AM


DJ- Net income edges down to $411.4 million, or 29c a share, from $412.8 million a year ago. Sales rise 13% to $2.53 billion as orders from memory-chip customers remain strong. Company expects growth of 25% to 35% for etch products this year.

AMAT $18.90 -4.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:08:52 AM

Citigroup (C) $54.63 +3.48% ... now we know who was buying some of those shares from 5/11/07. Cost basis probably around $53.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:07:22 AM


DJ- Billionaire hedge-fund manager Edward Lampert discloses that his firm has bought more than 15 million shares of Citigroup, a position valued at more than $800 million. He also has acquired small stakes in Motorola and Clear Channel.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:05:12 AM

10:03 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2007 10:01:08 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

May Trade Blotter TD with updated trade targets and stops where applicable at this Link

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 9:51:19 AM

Citigroup is the anointed stock for the DOW today, currently up 3%. JPM is up a little more than 1% and the banks (BIX) got a nice little pop up this morning. The trouble with the BIX pattern over the past week is that it looks like a consolidation pattern before continuing lower.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 9:25:29 AM

I fixed the link on my 9:25 post.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 9:25:00 AM

Then of course here is our little energizer bunny, the DOW. That gravestone doji tells me the DOW will take a breather today. "A "gravestone doji," as the name implies, is probably the most ominous candle of all. On that day, prices rallied, but could not stand the "altitude" they achieved. By the end of the day they came back and closed at the same level." Link

Keene Little : 5/16/2007 9:15:34 AM

Equity futures have moved up since 6:00 AM so we'll see if that holds this morning. It's going to be important for the bulls to keep the rally going today otherwise some important support levels will be broken. NQ has had a nice little rally from last night's low and between the techs and small caps we'll need to see some bullish price action today or else things will turn a lot more bearish for them and in turn the braoder market.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 9:15:03 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell Wednesday, after closing at a nearly one-week high in the previous session, as the dollar traded slightly higher against the euro and the yen.

Gold for June delivery declined $4.50 to $670.0 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"The market may have breathed a small sigh of relief on Tuesday, as traders took the inflation gospel to the trading pits and bought some gold with the expectation that dollar rates do not have a real strong reason to rise at this juncture," said Jon Nadler, metals analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in a morning note.

"However, today's Labor Department report that confirms the decline in inflation also underscores that a real and not-to-be-ignored economic slowdown is unfolding in the world's largest economy," Nadler said. "Suddenly, the brief euphoria felt by metals traders Tuesday turns into hand-wringing once again."

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 9:13:17 AM

COMPX tested its support zone yesterday and is trading below the magenta 20EMA, which is not big deal as far as I am concerned. Now if this market breaks this support zone and closes below the green 50EMA then that would have my attention. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 9:09:05 AM

Everyone was talking about the sell off in the tech stocks yesterday but I think the big story is the sell off in the small caps. Although $RUT has still not tested May lows, which very nicely fits the 38.20% retracement of the rally from the March lows. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 9:02:57 AM

Crude made a double bottom at $61.00/bl and is now in the process of making a bear flag and I think it will break this bear flag, make a lower high, then go on to break support to make a lower low. That is my story and I am sticking to it. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 8:57:51 AM

Gold's sideways move here is telling me this market will head lower before higher and I am on the sidelines. I did have a long GLD position, which I closed because it closed below 670.00 and will not short Gold. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 8:53:59 AM

I have recently added the DAX to my commodity charts to get a feel for how it trades and to see if I can use it as an internal intraday.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 8:51:08 AM

US$ and Gold were in sync overnight. Anyone who questions the relationship between these two just need to take a look at these two charts. This relationship can get skewed but it doesn't take long to right itself. Notice also how the $ tagged its PDL overnight. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 8:46:02 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch's fund manager survey for May showed that investors are expecting that corporate profits will rise in May, although they also believe that inflation is likely to increase.

The survey, which questioned a total of 201 investors managing $586 billion in funds, found that the net respondents expecting global corporate profits to rise was minus 12%, down from minus 32% in April.

However, the net balance of investors expecting higher inflation rose to 34% in the month, from 27% in April, with a net 17% of respondents saying that global monetary policy is too stimulative, compared to 15% taking this view a month ago.

"With every silver lining comes a cloud and with expectations of stronger growth comes the fear that global core inflation is set to rise," said David Bowers, independent consultant to Merrill Lynch.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 8:37:00 AM

I was updating the overnight charts when the Building permits data was released and I had to keep adjusting the overnight high markers up. I mean really the news was OK but from my perspective not all that good. However, if there is anything I have learned over the last 8 years of trading is that the market never listens to me. Link

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 8:33:12 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. home builders pulled back on filing for permits to build homes in April, but started construction on more houses than they did in March, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

In mixed data on the housing market, the government said building permits fell 8.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.429 million, the lowest since June 1997.

It was the largest percentage decline in 17 years. And it was much lower than the 1.51 million pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Meanwhile, the number of new houses started increased by 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.528 million, higher than the 1.48 million pace expected.

Permits are down 28% in the past 12 months, while starts are down 16%.

Jane Fox : 5/16/2007 8:23:34 AM

DENVER (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig on Tuesday night that he expected the first quarter would be the low point of the slowdown and the economy would pick up from here.

"My own outlook (is) the economy will slowly, gradually increase over the course of the year from our current level of 1.3% towards 2)%) and above 2% over the course of 2007 and ... a higher growth rate going into 2008," Hoenig said .

The Federal Reserve's "modestly firm" current federal funds rate target of 5.25% is designed to "bring the inflation rate down but it is also designed to allow the U.S. economy to move forward and expand gradually over time," he said.

Hoenig, a voting member of the FOMC this year, spoke at a U.S. economic forum in Denver.

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