Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Keene Little : 5/23/2007 12:18:04 AM

Chart updates:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

The DOW and SPX charts are very similar in that there's a way to call the rally finished but they would both look better with either a little longer sideways/down consolidation followed by another rally leg, or another rally leg right from here. The key downside levels are DOW 13481 and SPX 1515--any break of these levels would be bearish.

NDX and RUT have pretty clean patterns for their rallies over the past week, especially the RUT. If you look at the rally from May 16th on the RUT it shows a very clear 5-wave move up. At the completion of a 5-wave move there will always be a correction of that move so now we wait for the top to get short. Moving in closer to look at that 5th wave, which is the move up from Monday, this 5-min chart shows how it's unfolding: Link

Whether the RUT rallies right away on Wednesday or slides a little further over to the bottom of a parallel up-channel (parallel to the line from the 1st to the 3rd wave and attached to the 2nd wave) before rallying, we should get another leg up. Then the Fib projections at 842.64 (5th wave = 62% of the 1st wave) and 844.65 (5th and 1st waves equal) will be the levels to watch for a top.

Backing out to the daily chart shows why the 845 area holds a lot of potential to be tough resistance: Link The trend line along the highs from May 2006 and February 2007 is currently about 844.90, coinciding with that 844.65 Fib target. That's what I'm hoping will get tagged and then see this turn back down which should be a very good shorting opportunity. We'll have to wait for the pullback to develop in order to determine whether it will lead to more highs or will instead be the start of a significant decline.

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 11:49:49 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 11:05:11 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link ... after generating the "bearish signal reversed" pattern yesterday with a trade at 17,000 ... Nikkei up 71 points, or +0.41% at 17,751. Session high has been 17,802 so two (2) additional X's to early May's relative high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:54:34 PM

SPX's NH/NL tally was 53:1

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:54:30 PM

RUT.X's NH/NL tally for Tuesday was 108:9 ... the 108 NH was shy of what I thought bulls wanted to see. 9 NL also shy of what a bear would want. Daily ratio of 92.3% is "strongest" since my 4/20/07 return.

5-day NH/NL ratio would reverse up (58.0%) with closing measure of 65.9%.

OI Technical Staff : 5/22/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 6:50:24 PM

... food safety was raised over breakfast ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 6:49:43 PM

US Hears Blunt Trade Warning From China ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 6:44:01 PM

IWM's July Option Montage at this Link

I'm showing 21,142 contracts traded in the IOW-GH on all exchanges. IOW-SC close enough, but 63,364 all exchanges.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 6:22:42 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 6:19:09 PM

1,000,000 shares of CAT just blocked at $75.51.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 6:14:58 PM

US Senate Endorses Allowing 600,000 Foreign Guest Workers/Year

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 6:00:51 PM

Fed's Bernanke: Says Strong US Educational System Is "Critical."

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 5:58:41 PM

Gartner: IBM Maintains Top Worldwide Server Sales Spot

DJ- Technology research firm Gartner Inc. (IT) said Tuesday that International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) maintained its No. 1 spot in worldwide server revenue during the first quarter of the year, as the company saw its performance in the market enhanced by increased sales of high-end Unix-based servers.

Gartner's results said IBM had total server revenue of $3.83 billion, up 8.4% from a year ago, and good enough for almost 30% of the total industry's sales during the first quarter. Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) came in second place, as its sales rose 5.4%, to $3.64 billion and a 28.2% market share.

The top five server makers in term of revenue were rounded out by Dell Inc. (DELL) with $1.44 billion; Sun Microsystems Inc. (SUNW), which had sales of $1.33 billion; and Fujitsu/Fujitsu Siemens, with $698 million in server sales.

Total industry sales rose 4.5% from the same period a year ago, to $12.86 billion.

Gartner said IBM's sales rose in nearly all of its main server lines, and the company surpassed Sun for the top revenue spot in Unix servers, with $1.26 billion in sales, up 14.3% from last year's first quarter. Sun's Unix sales slipped 1.5% to $1.17 billion.

H-P kept its top spot in terms of server unit shipments, with 634,000 units sold, up almost 18% from last year. Gartner said H-P's shipments gave it 30% of the market, the first time since 2002 that it claimed that much market share.

Gartner said Dell claimed the No. 2 shipment spot by selling almost 446,000 servers, while IBM was third with shipments of 295,000 servers. Fujitsu/Fujitsu Siemens and Sun completed the top five unit leaders.

Gartner said total industry shipments rose 6% from the first quarter of 2006, to 2.11 million units.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 5:46:05 PM

NHP $29.28 +0.96% ... 400 @ $30.27.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 5:44:42 PM

WFR $57.43 +1.48% ... jumps to $59.05 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 5:44:02 PM

S&P To Add Memc Electronic Materials to S&P 500

DJ- Standard & Poor's said it would add Memc Electronic Materials Inc. (WFR) to the S&P 500, replacing Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI), on a date to be announced.

Nationwide Health Properties Inc. (NHP) will replace Memc Electronic in the S&P MidCap 400 Index on a date to be announced. Kinder Morgan is being acquired by an investment group led by its Chairman and Chief Executive Richard Kinder.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 5:25:00 PM

June Crude (cl07m) ... final day for June contract has settlement at $64.97.

July Crude Oil (cl07n) settled down $1.36, or -2.03% at $65.51.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 5:22:51 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 5:18:01 PM

email response ... I have no idea other than it would appear somebody thinks they know/knew something Friday. TOL's option montage from Friday Link had the look of $30.48 to $31.61.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 5:09:39 PM

VLO $75.75 -0.03% ...

Jim Brown : 5/22/2007 4:58:08 PM

Short interest on the NYSE is at a historic high according to a press release by the NYSE yesterday. That is helping fuel the continued gains.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 4:47:08 PM

I couldn't figure out for the life of me how VLO went to a new intra-day high after our day trade short. Now I "know"

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 4:46:17 PM

Good Gravy! ... VLO's May 15 Short Interest Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 4:32:56 PM

FTC: Gasoline/Diesel prob (update)

DJ- The Federal Trade Commission is investigating gasoline and diesel supply activities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, Commissioner William Kovacic told a House oversight committee probing price-gouging on Tuesday.

"Following up on observations of anomalous pricing patterns affecting multiple cities over the past year, staff currently is examining bulk supply and demand conditions and practices for gasoline and diesel in the Pacific Northwest," the commissioner said in a footnote in his testimony to the energy oversight committee.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 4:22:41 PM

Alcan's Board Recommends Shareholders Reject Alcoa's Offer

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 4:20:34 PM

Argentina: 1Q Unemployment 9.8% Vs. 8.7% in 4Q

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 4:20:01 PM

Same with the RUT--got a little pullback from this afternoon's high which looks like a corrective sideways consolidation. This suggests another move to a new high tomorrow and that will then complete the 5-wave move up from yesterday afternoon's low which in turn will complete the 5-wave move up from May 16th which in turn could be the completion of the rally from July. Yep, getting close to a good short play setup--tomorrow. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 4:19:13 PM

FTC: Probing Gas, Diesel Supply Activities in Pacific NW US

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 4:15:33 PM

NDX gave us a little pullback from this afternoon's high and now the question is whether that high was it or will there be one more. Ideally the pattern calls for another new high, depicted in green on the 60-min chart here. But I think this one is very very close to finishing and the risk for bulls is that it already finished. Link

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 4:10:58 PM

With the SPX pushing above the March 2000 closing high of 1527 two days now and then not being able to hold it tells me we've got some distibution going on. The closing price is reflected on this updated SPX chart--it could still head down and/or over to the uptrend line from March, or immediately higher. It takes a break of its uptrend line before the bulls have to start worrying. Link

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 4:03:50 PM

If we're going to get a sideways correction in the DOW before pushing higher then this pullback could be about the extrent of it. We could get another up-down sequence to finish it before the final rally leg. But with the new highs for the NDX and RUT today, which could be close to finishing their own 5-wave moves, the DOW will need to hold above its uptrend line from April 12th, and especially above 13481, in order to maintain the bullish possibility for another leg up. Otherwise this may have already topped. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 4:01:13 PM

Yes ... 5/11/07 @ 11:42:14 AM EDT. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 3:58:56 PM

I think that's the same firm that upgraded CAB and downgraded GMTN a few days ago. Mentioned it here in MM.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 3:58:18 PM

Gander Mountain (GMTN) $13.19 -5.71% ... Upgraded at DA Davidson to "Neutral" from "Underperform"

Jim Brown : 5/22/2007 3:51:40 PM

Just like the very strong resistance above 843 on the ER it appears there is equally strong support at 841. It simply refuses to crack after numerous tries.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 3:43:01 PM

RUT.X ... Daily interval chart at this Link

Anchor the March relative low, then drag 100% up to 4-point box BVC of $896.

If now holding a "strangle," could close out the put on CLOSE above 844?

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 3:34:20 PM

email response ... No! I would have NO problem at this point holding an IWM strangle.

Jim Brown : 5/22/2007 3:27:30 PM

Volume is beginning to slow and I fear it will only get worse as the week progresses towards the holiday weekend. Since volume is a weapon of the bulls that may not be a positive sign.

Jim Brown : 5/22/2007 3:18:03 PM

Every time the ER moves over 843 the market depth becomes severely imbalanced with nearly 3:1 ask over bids. There is huge resistance over 843.

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 3:13:04 PM

I agree Jane (on the divergence question). That's why I'm thinking we'll get a leg down as part of a larger sideways/down correction before giving us the final rally leg to finish this off.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 3:12:17 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 3:10:18 PM

Interesting that both laggards, ER and NQ of late were the strongest markets today in a game of catchup. Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 3:08:49 PM

Keene, I am seeing those divergences as well (2:47 post) but I was wondering what the chances are that the markets just trade sideways until the divergences correct themselves. With the strength of the bulls that scenario would not surprise me.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 3:06:13 PM

One has to wonder if the DOW will just trade sideways and not retrace before its next move upward. Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 3:04:42 PM

Russell 2000 cash index traded in a sideways pattern while MACD fell. Although convention TA says this is a bearish MACD divergence I contend that it is bullish and not a bearish divergence. Seems that was the case here. I must add a caveat though I was hesitant on that interpretation this time because all the other markets were indeed making very clear divergences and of course my bias that we are way overextended. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 3:02:56 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 2:59:46 PM

Crude has certainly found resistance. Link

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 2:47:22 PM

SPX is also leaving some not-so-healthy bearish divergences at recent highs so it looks ready for a drop back down. But if the bulls can keep the rally going then the next Fib resistance zone is around 1540. But assuming we'll pull back from here then the question is whether we'll get just another leg down as part of a larger 4th wave correction (light green wave-(iv) showing a pullback to the March uptrend line) or if it will break the uptrend line from March. Link

As noted on the chart, that uptrend line is the key for the current rally leg since a break of it would signify that the wave count is finished. And if the wave count for this leg up is finished then there's more than an even chance that the rally from July will be finished. But first things first--we need a pullback and we need to see if it will hold above 1515.

Jim Brown : 5/22/2007 2:36:27 PM

Here is an average I use on the 5 min chart. No trending average scenario is perfect since a lull in the market will always bring them together but in the long run you will always be on the right side of the trade. Experiment with your own averages and time frames. I like to use averages that are roughly 2:1 long to short. 23-11, 39-19, 100-50, etc.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 2:36:12 PM

NQ just broke its PDH and is making new daily highs. Obviously it is playing a game of catchup with ES and YM.

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 2:34:48 PM

The bulls laugh in the face of bearish divergences, as shown on this DOW 60-min chart. I'm just not sure how much longer they can keep laughing. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 2:33:42 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jim Brown : 5/22/2007 2:22:55 PM

Here is a sample NVR chart with my option trade averages of 19 and 39 periods on a 20 min chart. Change to puts from calls or calls to puts when the averages cross. Sorry for the wide chart but it was needed to show the range. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 2:20:20 PM

VLO $76.34 +0.73% ... "fading" a bit.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 2:18:15 PM

NQ tags its PDH and finds resistance.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 2:17:56 PM

Bulls took a while to get things off the ground but once they did it was to the moon - again at least for ER it was. Link

Jim Brown : 5/22/2007 2:16:22 PM

I have picked a top in the Russell several times this week and have yet to be right. I agree completely with Keene but this bull refuses to rest. The best way to profit in this market is to simply follow a pair of averages like the 11 and 23 or 21 and 39. Whatever produces an accurate trend change indicator on your chart period. If you like very short periods like 2 min then the averages used should be different than a longer term like a 15 min. Experiment and pick one that works for you. I will post some examples in a few minutes. If you faithfully follow the changes you will never be on the wrong side of the trend.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 2:15:42 PM

I might have Jane!

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 2:14:15 PM

NDX is also nearing potential resistance and it too would look best with a small pullback and new high but recognize that it is now into the area that could mark a top to this move. Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 2:13:34 PM

I have 3.40 ER pts off that signal.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 2:13:09 PM

For RISK and trade management purposes ... I think I've noted before, but will do so again, that the IWM has achieved its bullish vertical count of $83.00.

Now turning to the RUT.X itself, using 4-point box to establish further potential upside target for longer-term RISK/REWARD analysis.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 2:13:09 PM

Did Y'all take the VIX and AD volume signal? They don't come along every day so you need to take them when they do.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 2:10:47 PM

I'll say it now and test it later.

At tonight's close, I think a small cap BULL wants to see something north of 130 new highs.

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 2:10:22 PM

The RUT has made it up into its potential Fib/trend line resistance zone of 838-840 and pressing through the top of it right now. The RUT often over throws its Fib levels but I'd be careful about chasing it higher here. The EW count could use a small pullback and then final high but we're definitely in the area of "close enough" right now. If anything I'd be considering picking a top around here, which needless to say could be dangerous. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 2:08:16 PM

Get ready for some "Russell reconstitution" too. Should be quite a few changes.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 2:08:46 PM

I must thank Linda for pointing out the typing error I made on my 2:00:17 post (now 2:06). We all need a laugh now and then don't we?

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 2:07:27 PM

AMEX:IWM $83.52 +0.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 2:06:49 PM

RUT.X 840 +0.80% ... short squeeze alert!

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 2:06:01 PM

TOL will be the next best thing Jim. Hey, check out BZH's 150 and 200-day SMA.

Jim Brown : 5/22/2007 2:03:52 PM

Too bad NVR does not have options. I have wanted to play it for years but can't bring myself to buy the stock at its triple digit price.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 2:02:16 PM

NVR, Inc. (NVR) alert! 834.09 +3.28% ... back at that 80.9% retracement of all-time high close of $938 to recent low close of $394.

Jim Brown : 5/22/2007 2:01:06 PM

I think traders would be able to buy July IWM calls cheaper very soon. I know this bull is still running but it's legs are starting to wobble.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 2:06:37 PM

Look at those TICKS hit at high of +1398 today. Wow! Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:58:32 PM

Make sense? Long ~1/3 small-cap BOOM. Add a broader IWM? Take more PROFITS in OLN?

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 1:57:55 PM

Expect ES to find resistance at its PDH, it always does at least for awhile. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:57:05 PM

Swing trade long exit partial alert ... Let's sell the 75 share, more "mid-cap" Olin Corp. (OLN) here at $20.43 +4.71% ... Hold the remaining 100 with today's covered call.

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 1:54:57 PM

SPX is continuing to push up under its broken uptrend line from May 16th, a very common occurrence with this market.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:53:37 PM

Russell 2000 Index ($RUT.X) default 5-point box Link

Dorsey using 4-point Link

Option montage for IWM July looks like they're ready to rumble at 840.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:49:38 PM

Bullish swing trade call option alert ... for one (1) of the iShares Russell 2000 IWM July $83 Calls (IOW-GE) at the offer of $2.48.

IWM $83.27 +0.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:48:13 PM

Good Gravy! ... check out the AMEX:IWM July call action.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:42:14 PM

Should get NASDAQ and AMEX in a couple of days.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 1:41:55 PM

I think we are going to continue to move higher so you may want to get long and hang on.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:41:20 PM

ACH's May 15 Short Interest Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:40:38 PM

GM's May 15 Short Interest Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:39:56 PM

OLN's May 15 Short Interest Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:39:01 PM

DJ's May 15 Short Interest Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:37:38 PM

TOL's May 15 Short Interest Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:34:03 PM

SPY's May 15 Short Interest Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:33:25 PM

DIA's May 15 Short Interest Link

Linda Piazza : 5/22/2007 1:30:39 PM

I was talking to Jane earlier via emails, relating that I don't see any clear directional clues today. We're approaching a dreaded stop-running time of day, though. I used to find that about 1:35-1:55 ET were the times when big money people would return from lunch and try a little run past either support or resistance, to see what held and what didn't, depending on their outlook and desires for the rest of the day. The locus of those moves tended to be about 1:45 ET in my experience. So, it's possible that if there's anything directional to happen today, and I'm not at all sure that there will be, it might begin with a little stop run. I don't think that big money people are evil and trying to get all our stops before reversing course. I think, instead, before they spend all their money buying, they want to be sure support is going to hold, and before they put a lot at risk shorting, they want to make sure resistance is. If they run prices down and the bottom falls out, they aren't going to buy and may instead dump some of what they've already bought. If they run prices down and they immediately bounce back, they have more confidence. And vice versa with bearish moves. But for now, I just don't see anything that would tempt me into a play either direction.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 1:26:29 PM

Once again Vix to new daily lows and AD volume to new daily highs. Link

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 1:15:17 PM

I'm back and I see equities have pushed back up. But SPX has now bounced back up to its broken uptrend line from May 16th and if there's a little larger correction in its future, as per the green price depiction I put on the chart yesterday, then another drop could start from here. Continue to be cautious during this consolidation. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:14:05 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:03:20 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 1:00:27 PM

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) alert! $150.70 +3.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 12:59:12 PM

Chile's Ipsa Down 4.0% On Pension Fund Foreign Investment Change

See Yesterday's MM.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 12:56:20 PM

And the bulls return and push the markets to new daily highs Oh Hum!

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 12:54:48 PM

VLO is trading like it is VERY short, where each new high gets snapped back up on re-test of that high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 12:53:22 PM

VLO $76.95 +1.54% ... probes morning and all-time high.

DO NOT be complacent if short.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 12:51:28 PM

Day trade short stop alert ... for Valero Energy (VLO) $76.90

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 12:38:51 PM

Crude Oil/Gasoline ... DJ- Crude oil futures extended losses in morning trading Tuesday as gasoline futures slumped amid expectations for a build in supplies of the fuel ahead of the summer driving season.

Adding to expectations for rising stockpiles, Colonial Pipeline Co. said Tuesday that it is restricting the amount of gasoline shipped on its Gulf Coast-to-New York Harbor line. Colonial allocates gasoline nominations on the line whenever there is a back-up of supply along the Gulf Coast trying to find its way to the New York market.

"The weakness in crude is pretty much related to Gulf Coast (spot) gasoline, which is eight to 10 cents (a gallon) lower on a back-up" in supplies, said Tom Bentz, an analyst and broker at BNP Paribas in New York.

The front-month June light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 99 cents, or 1.5%, at $65.28 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell 76 cents to $70.49 a barrel.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 800,000 barrels in weekly inventory data due Wednesday from the U.S. Department of Energy, according to the mean estimate in a Dow Jones Newswires survey analysts. If the survey is right, it will be the third straight increase in gasoline stockpiles, which previously had 12 straight weeks of draws because of refinery glitches, high demand and low imports.

"We've come off in products, with the market expecting an increase in refinery utilization and an increase in stocks" in the DOE report, said Brad Samples, an analyst at Summit Energy in Louisville, KY. "There is still a lot of anxiety built in that supplies could struggle to cover summer demand," he said.

Front-month June reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygenate blending, or RBOB, fell 6.91 cents, or 2.9%, to $2.3322 a gallon. June heating oil fell 3.35 cents, or 1.7%, to $1.9174 a gallon. Refinery utilization is expected to rise 0.6 percentage point to 90.1% of capacity in the data, which is put out by the DOE's statistics and analysis unit, the Energy Information Agency.

Crude oil stockpiles are seen falling by 200,000 barrels, while distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are seen building by 900,000 barrels.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday that there is a 75% chance that the June 1 to Nov. 30 Atlantic Hurricane season will be above normal and that it expects between 13 and 17 named storms, seven and 10 hurricanes and three and five major hurricanes. Prices had little reaction to the forecast, which was in line with expectations and slightly milder than an earlier forecast by the respected Colorado State University. CSU last month said it expects 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense storms.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 12:08:48 PM

Day trade short alert ... full position in shares of Valero Energy (VLO) $76.61 +1.09% here. Stop goes $76.90, target $75.01.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 12:07:26 PM

Notice how the Smith Open number system is giving you a heads up as to which markets to short today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 12:05:39 PM

DJ- Nymex Crude Falls As Gasoline Tanks

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 12:00:01 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $130.75 -0.34% ... c'mon in ... WEEKLY S2 ($125.78) would be nice.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 11:58:56 AM

U.S. Oil Fund (USO) $50.09 -1.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 11:58:30 AM

Reminder: June Crude Oil (cl07m) final settlement is today.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 11:55:46 AM

ES and YM are certainly your weaker markets today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 11:54:06 AM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link ... closed up 123 points, or +0.70%.

Since $NIKK was in a column of X ... session high was 17,730, so X's to 17,700.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 11:52:35 AM

Heh $10.00 now WEEEE !

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 11:52:08 AM

My YM short is up $5.00 :(

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 11:51:33 AM

Both AD line and volume are now below 0 but not a lot below and are still basically neutral.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 11:49:19 AM

My bias in Gold is based on three charts, Oil, US$ and the Swiss Franc. I need Oil above its weekly 12EMA, the $ below its weekly 7EMA and the Swiss France above it weekly 5EMA. As you can see I have no reason to be bullish on Gold at this poing and will remain on the sidelines until I see these charts tell me otherwise.

Oil is the only chart that is bullish on Gold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 11:48:07 AM

Halliburton Seeks Mideast Investor In $80B Project Push

DJ- U.S. oil contractor would welcome a Mideast investor in its push for $80 billion worth of oil-services projects worldwide in the next five years. It also is considering a listing on the Dubai International Financial Exchange.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 11:41:33 AM


DJ- OSI Restaurant Partners accepts an improved buyout offer from Bain Capital Partners and Catterton Management of $41.15 a share in cash, from $40. New offer represents a 27% premium over stock's closing price Nov. 3.

OSI $40.94 +1.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 11:35:46 AM


DJ- Treasury secretary says U.S. and China need to show their economic dialogue will be followed up with action to combat growing protectionism and mistrust among citizens in both countries.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 11:34:59 AM


DJ- CEO Geoghegan says measures taken to deal with the bank's sub-prime mortgage problems in the U.S. are working, but warns the situation may worsen in 2H depending on the health of the U.S. economy and its property market.

HBC $92.40 -0.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 11:15:11 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: It would currently take a closing measure of 62.00% for the NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse higher by 3-boxes.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 11:13:39 AM

I haven't looked at VLO much lately and all I can say is my good gracious. I thought been long was not a good idea because it was so overextended but this just goes to show you how much overextended a market can get. That little consolidation it did in early May was enough to burn off the overbot and then to the moon. Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 11:09:46 AM

I may be short YM but these are telling me to just stay away from trading until a direction becomes just a little clearer. Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 11:08:14 AM

These are pathetic. If this is all the bears have then they are in serious trouble. (I expected a bearish day today sic!) Link

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 11:08:10 AM

I've got to head off for a meeting that will take a couple of hours so I'll be back after lunch. Good time to leave while the market consolidates--keeps me from hurting myself :-)

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 11:06:46 AM

DAX testing daily lows and I think YM will follow so I am short YM with a stop at 13595. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 11:01:40 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:50:40 AM

Toll Bros. (TOL) $29.68 +3.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:50:18 AM

NVR, Inc. (NVR) $815.12 +1.16% ...

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 10:44:18 AM

The small consolidation that we're getting near the low of yesterday afternoon's pullback looks bearish but it could be good only for another small leg down before starting another rally. But because of the choppy price action it could literally head in either direction and then reverse again. I don't see this as a good time to trade. Need to let the price pattern develop a little further.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:42:40 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/3 position (100 shares for $10k=full) in Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $35.03 +0.22% here. Stop goes $33.40, target $38.50.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:37:10 AM

200-day SMA alert for Toll Brothers (TOL) $29.45 +2.20% ... 150-day at $30.24.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:34:43 AM

Toll Brothers (TOL) $29.42 +2.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:34:14 AM

DJUSHB 655.24 +3.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:33:43 AM

10% alert ... DJUSHB +10% from Friday 4/13/07 afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:32:28 AM


DJ- Shares shoot up 40% after firm agrees to sell its commercial-real estate lending business to iStar Financial for $1.9 billion and a minority interest in the company that will result in new corporate management.

FMT $9.95 +39.94% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:30:28 AM


DJ- Intel and STMicro are combining some of their operations into a new company focused on flash memory for wireless products. Intel will get a 45% stake in the new entity and $432 million at closing, while STM will get a 49% stake and $468 million at closing.

INTC $22.73 +0.44% Link ...

STM $20.36 +2.41% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:21:24 AM

Olin to buy Pioneer for $35/share ... Yesterday afternoon Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:20:25 AM

Olin Corp. (OLN) alert! ... Pioneer Announces Conference Call to Discuss Acquisition by Olin Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:18:11 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:12:52 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert on the shares of Olin Corp. (OLN) $20.56 +5.38% that do NOT have a covered call written against them to $20.20

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:06:52 AM

My bullish target was/is $21.00 for OLN.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:04:55 AM

Swing trade sell covered call alert for one (1) of the Olin Corp. OLN June $20 Calls (OLN-FD) at the bid of $1.05.

OLN $20.44 +4.76%

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 10:03:59 AM

So far it's just a continuation of the consolidation that started yesterday afternoon and that would mean choppy price action. It's probably going to be a day to pick and choose your trades carefully or not at all. The best thing for the market right now (in order to help figure out where we are) is for a consolidation today (could be a little larger move down in a sideways/down move) to be followed by another push higher perhaps into tomorrow. Then I'll be looking for a short entry but so far the bulls haven't done anything wrong here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 10:01:45 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/22/2007 9:49:51 AM

Anheuser Bush Says 2Q To Miss Estimates

BUD $49.85 +0.40% ... resting on its 150-day SMA ($49.48). 50-day SMA ($50.74).

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 9:29:58 AM

With no key economic reports Tuesday, markets will be paying close attention to talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Chinese government officials. China last week widened the daily trading band for the yuan against the dollar in what many saw as a symbolic gesture.

The Chinese government also in an unprecedented move said it would put $3 billion of its massive foreign exchange holdings to work by investing in The Blackstone Group, a leveraged buyout firm preparing an initial public offering

Keene Little : 5/22/2007 9:21:24 AM

Equities look set for a little bounce this morning but the short term pattern is not clear as to which way the market will head next. The pattern in the techs has been ugly and choppy lately but the move up from May 16th looks like it could give us a nice impulsive move and that means a push back to new highs from here. Then it'll be time to start looking for a top again.

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 9:10:42 AM

I suspect the bears to be in control today and that YM will break this bear flag today. How is that for going out on a limb? Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 9:07:16 AM

Here is a very clear MACD divergence, price making higher highs but MACD making lower highs. Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 9:02:57 AM

Russell cash index tested its yearly highs yesterday but the MACD did not. Conventional technical analysis tells you this is a bearish divergence yet a sideways move with the MACD falling is many times bullish. But like I said yesterday, all the other markets have clear MACD divergences so you would probably have to say this chart was a bearish divergence as well. Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 8:59:17 AM

Here is a chart of the DAX and YM and as you can see both made a new overnight low as the same time and both have been in rally mode since. Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 8:50:33 AM

Overnight Gold was able to rally enough to break its PDH which was accommodated by a selloff in the greenback, however, the $ was able to come back and make a new overnight high and, although Gold did not make a new overnight low at the same time, it was not able to follow through on its rally.

Oil made lower lows and highs overnight and that does help Gold either, we need to see Oil rallying if we want Gold to make higher highs that stick.

When I first looked at the DAX chart I saw this market in rally mode and I wondered if YM would follow. Then I realized that DAX opens at 2:00EDT and at 3:55 made a new overnight low the same time YM made its overnight low but both of them have been in rally mode since. Link

Jane Fox : 5/22/2007 8:36:24 AM

All the markets were doing just fine yesterday and the bulls were in total control then at 3:00EDT NQ and ER made a lower high and all four markets began a sell off. ER was able to hold the selloff to 50% of its daily range, NQ was a little deeper to 76.40% but ES's retracement was a full 100% and ended up testing its daily lows. However, the big story was YM, our energized bunny of late, not only sold off 100% of its daily range but then some and actually hit the 127.20% fib level of its daily range. Link

Market Monitor Archives