Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Keene Little : 5/23/2007 10:35:45 PM

A minor new low tomorrow morning should complete a 5-wave move down from Wednesday's high and set up a bounce to correct that move. I'll then be watching the bounce for another opportunity to get short for another leg down. The dark red wave counts on the 60-min charts is for my preferred wave count which calls for a bounce and another decline. Shorts should use Wednesday's highs as stop levels and then we'll be able to lower them if the bounce leads to new lows.
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 10:31:31 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:02:16 PM

NYSE Summation ($NYSI) 20-point box Link ... Still in a column of "O" at +640.11 (+660 on chart).

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:02:33 PM

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) 20-point box Link ... still in a column of "O" at -81.53 (-100 on chart).

OI Technical Staff : 5/23/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 9:49:06 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 9:40:37 PM

RUT.X NH/NL tally was 109:9 on Wednesday.

SPX.X NH/NL was 55:0

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 6:31:51 PM

Venezuela Begins Two-Phase Review Of All Mining Companies

DJ- Venezuela has begun a two-phase review of all mining company operations in the country including those handling gold and diamond projects, the mining ministry said Wednesday.

In the first phase of the "Program to Evaluate Mining Companies," private and publicly owned companies will present their production plans to the government, the ministry said in a statement.

During the next month, "more than 30 companies will have the opportunity to explain to the ministry its production procedures, reserves, investment projects and other proposals," the ministry added.

The companies involved in the first phase of the review include the government's gold company "CVG Minerven and the U.S.'s Hecla Mining Co. (HL)," among others.

A second stage of the mining review would begin in July and August that would involve evaluating the different mining projects presented.

"Among the large projects we will study closely in the second phase are those of the gold and diamonds in the state of Bolivar," said Mining Vice Minister Ivan Hernandez, according to the release.

Eventually, the government will also audit these companies "to verify the information they provide."

The government of President Hugo Chavez is expected to gain a stronger hand in the mining sector as part of a campaign to control strategic sectors of the economy.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 6:14:35 PM

US, China Make Modest Progress On Trade

AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 6:05:57 PM

US Presses China To Lift Restrictions On US Beef

DJ- The Bush administration renewed pressure on China this week to lift its restrictions on U.S. beef, U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns said Wednesday.

Johanns, who met with visiting Chinese officials this week during the bilateral U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue, said in a recorded statement that there was no "breakthrough" in talks on beef trade.

China has been a source of consternation to USDA officials when it comes to the treatment of beef trade. High-level USDA officials traveled to Beijing several times last year after a pledge by China to end its ban. No agreement on how to restart beef trade was reached, but China nevertheless unilaterally announced a decision in June 2006 to open its market to some U.S. exports.

Johanns rejected China's offer to allow in only boneless beef cuts from cattle under 30 months old. He said, at the time, he wouldn't be satisfied until China agreed to accept "a full range of U.S. beef products."

USDA officials now believe they have stronger grounds to demand that foreign markets lift barriers to U.S. beef because the World Organization for Animal Health, or OIE, voted Tuesday to grant the U.S. a favorable "controlled" risk status for mad-cow disease.

China and many other nations banned U.S. beef in December 2003 after the first case of mad-cow disease, or bovine spongiform encephalopathy, was discovered here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 6:01:35 PM

Fitch: GM's 'B' IDR Remains On Watch Negative; Cuts Sr Unsecured To 'B-/RR5'

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 5:59:35 PM

Verizon (VZ) $42.67 +0.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 5:58:56 PM

Most active single stock future today was VZ July ... 9,000 contracts; OI=20,001

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 5:55:50 PM

Shoot ... will try to remember to keep track of that IPO. Get a feel for indication from market participants.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 5:55:01 PM

Wells Real Estate Investment Trust Files $345M IPO

DJ- Wells Real Estate Investment Trust Inc. on Wednesday filed an initial public offering with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell up to $345 million in common stock.

The Norcross, Ga.-based real estate investment trust, which mainly invests in office buildings, previously has completed four public offerings of common stock, but its stock currently is not traded on a national securities exchange, so this will be its first listed public offering, the company said in its prospectus filed with the SEC.

The company said it intends to apply to list its stock on the New York Stock Exchange.

Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are listed as underwriters for the offering.

The company didn't disclose how many shares will be offered, nor did it provide an estimated price range.

The company said it intends to use the net proceeds for general corporate and working capital purposes, including acquisition and development of office properties, and repayment of debt or repurchase of outstanding shares.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 5:52:18 PM

Apex Silver (AMEX:SIL) $21.99 +2.23% ... cut to "hold" from "spec buy" at Salman.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 5:48:12 PM

Zhou: US, China Differ On Pace, Not Shape, Of Yuan Reform

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 5:34:09 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 5:20:52 PM

July Unleaded (rb07n) settled down $0.0079, or -0.35% at $2.2274.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 5:20:47 PM

July Crude Oil (cl07n) settled up $0.26, or +0.40% at $65.77.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 4:43:05 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 4:31:48 PM

Vice Commerce Minister: China Company's Set To Buy $32.6 Billion Of U.S. Goods

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 4:30:38 PM

Target (TGT) $58.60 +0.96% ... gets a "pop" to $60.27 extended on headline numbers.

Intra-day high was $60.63.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 4:24:04 PM

S&P Price/Earnings Ratio at 17.26, Down From 17.28

DJ- The price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the close of trading Wednesday was 17.26.

On Tuesday, the ratio ended at 17.28.

The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 measures the index's closing level divided by the index's total earnings, as reported under generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, for the most recent year.

In 2006, the most recently reported year, S&P 500 companies reported earnings of $88.18 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 4:21:44 PM

CA Inc. (CA) $27.84 -1.03% ... sharply lower at $25.35 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 4:20:35 PM

Children's Place (PLCE) $53.88 -0.75% ... ticking $54.47.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 4:19:32 PM

Gymboree (GYMB) $38.71 +0.99% ... higher at $40.90 extended on headline numbers.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 4:14:18 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: +19K. Previous: -5K.

8:30a.m. April Durable Goods Orders. Expected: +1.0%. Previous: +3.7%.

10:00a.m. April New Home Sales. Expected: +0.4%. Previous: +2.6%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 4:10:48 PM

Swing trade put establish stop alert for the Cypress Bioscience CYPB July $20 Put (QGY-SD) at $20 in the underlying.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 4:06:51 PM

Tomorrow is setting up for a bounce. First drop a little lower so that SPX can tag it uptrend line near 1520, then a bounce back up to around 1527, which will be about a 50%-62% retracement (and the previous 4th wave in this afternoon's decline), and then watch the bottom drop out. That would be a nice bearish setup that we'll watch for tomorrow. I'll discuss it more in tonight's Wrap.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 4:03:51 PM

Greenspan Warns Of Overheating Chinese Markets

DJ- Warnings from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan about overheating in Chinese equities formed part of the backdrop for choppy trade in Treasurys Wednesday afternoon.

The ex-central banker told a management conference in Madrid that he fears a "dramatic contraction" in Chinese stocks, according to a Reuters report.

Greenspan said via teleconference that the unprecedented boom in these markets was "clearly unsustainable," adding that "there is going to be a dramatic contraction at some point."

In Asian hours Wednesday, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.5% to its third successive record close of 4173.71. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.1% to 1223.98, also a record.

US stocks dipped slightly in the wake of the remarks, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which reached an all-time peak above 13,600 earlier Wednesday, continues to fluctuate around fresh highs.

Treasurys caught a small boost midafternoon, though the market overall has weakened throughout the session. A gradual selloff has taken the 10-year yield to 4.86%, just shy of its year's high of 4.89%.

Greenspan's speech also touched on the outlook for global growth, which he says cannot be sustained at the pace it's enjoyed in recent years.

"In the last five years, the world as a whole is growing faster than at any time in the world's history... It can't last and it won't last."

Nevertheless, he said the inevitable decline in certain asset prices wouldn't necessarily prove a heavy drag on the global economy.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 4:00:13 PM

Oh this is looking so good but calm down Jane, you know how viciously the bulls can turn markets around. And "Tomorrow is another day."

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 4:00:09 PM

I've seen nothing regarding Bancroft family meeting.

DJ $52.58 +2.17% ...

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 3:59:48 PM

Here's the same SPX 60-min chart with just the bearish wave count in an attempt to clean it up a little. It will be a good one for us bears to follow and see how closely it tracks. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 3:58:54 PM

ES testing daily lows which just happen to be PDLs as well.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:53:48 PM

Microsoft's Gates, Apple's Jobs Get Set For Historic Meeting

DJ (partial) - For more than two decades, Apple Inc. (AAPL) Chief Executive Steve Jobs and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Chairman Bill Gates have sparred over the issues that were crucial to the development of the technology industry.

Issues such as whether it is wiser for a company to partner or build everything itself. Or the primacy of software versus hardware in personal computers. Or which is more important: how easy it is to use a product or what it can do once you figure out how?

This jousting over big ideas, sometimes friendly but often not, has always been from a distance.

Until now.

Although Gates made a famous phone call to Jobs in 1997 and the two shared a stage briefly at a 1983 Apple promotional event, the two industry icons have never had a public conversation.

So when they sit down next Wednesday for a 75-minute joint interview in front of a gathering of tech executives, their long history and competing philosophies should make for an interesting - if not history-making - discussion.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 3:49:44 PM

The SPX 60-min chart shows why the uptrend line from March is critical. It's still possible to consider today's pullback as the end of the 4th wave correction which will be followed by another new high, perhaps as high as 1545. Based on the RUT's pattern I'm not leaning in that direction but we are in a bullish period (not just the current rally but also around the holiday). That uptrend line is currently near 1520 and I suspect we will get a bounce off it tomorrow if it drops a little further now.. Link

The bearish wave count calls for a 2nd wave bounce off that uptrend line, to correct today's decline, and then another decline that handily breaks support. The bullish wave count calls for another high. So don't be bashful about taking profits if and when SPX gets down there.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:49:25 PM

Forrest Labs (FRX) $53.39 +2.91% ... upgraded to "strong buy" from "neutral" at First Albany.

HSBC upgraded to "neutral" from "underweight."

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:48:08 PM

CIBC upgraded Cypress Bioscience (CYPB) $16.57 +96.09% today to "sector outperform" from "sector perform"

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 3:48:01 PM

Interesting how once ER broke its daily open at 842.40 used it as resistance with a double top at 842.30 Link

Tab Gilles : 5/23/2007 3:46:31 PM

I'm curious if Greenspan's comments are in some way a shot back at Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi, and her blunt comment the other day and the failure to resolve the U.S./China currency dispute?


Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 3:44:31 PM

Keene, I think we will have a close littered with those shooting stars you mentioned.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 3:40:52 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Wednesday that there's going to be a "dramatic contraction" in Chinese equities and that the current surge on the Chinese stock market is unsustainable, according to media reports. In recent weeks, a number of financial firms, including Goldman Sachs, as well as Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the People's Bank of China have expressed concern about the possibility of a bubble forming in the Chinese stock market. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks shares listed on the larger of China's two stock exchanges, has gained 56% year-to-date.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 3:40:20 PM

Now look at how the VIX and the TICKS reacted to the what ever it was that spooked the market. But interestingly the TRIN didn't spike. HMMMM Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:40:09 PM

Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan (6/23/2005) ... China ... Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 3:41:22 PM

You don't see the the AD line fall from +1404 to -438 very often so are we all thinking it was Greenspan's comments that did this? If so can you IMAGINE what will happen when the Chinese stock market actually does begin it fall. Oh my gosh! Link

Tab Gilles : 5/23/2007 3:37:09 PM

Greenspan words still move markets. Even if taken out of context. However...looking at the top 25 Chinese stocks we can buy, via the FXI...looks like it is forming a Double Top? Just as our SPX is setting a record. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:37:06 PM

Mexico's April Trade Deficit $728M; Consensus was -$381M

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:35:19 PM

If we close here with CYPB $16.50, then tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels will be ... $14.70, $15.60, Piv= 16.90, $17.80, $19.10.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 3:34:18 PM

The bulls need to gitty up and go otherwise the daily charts today will be littered with shooting stars and bearish engulfing candles at resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:32:29 PM

CYPB $16.41 +94.2% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:31:12 PM

29-minutes until equity cash close

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:21:48 PM

Closing out remainder of day trade short in CYPB $16.62 ... on that last 5-minute close above $16.50.

Hold the put, but into the close, lock in profits.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:15:21 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 3:14:36 PM

All my TA is telling me we have finally made a top. I certainly do not expect it to be a long term top but a top in any case.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 3:12:35 PM

... and here. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 3:12:03 PM

...and here. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 3:11:32 PM

Making a top here as well. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 3:12:55 PM

I just bot some IWM puts and if we don't have some kind of correction from here I will eat my hat. Everyone can meet me in Times Square and I will have ketchup and B-B-Q sauce with my hat. Link

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 3:02:51 PM

The RUT has bounced up to a 38% retracement of the leg down from the mid-day high which is also where the 2nd leg up in the bounce off the low is 162% of the 1st leg up (both just above 840) so it makes for a good place for this bounce to stop and turn back down. But if it hits 843 color me gone.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:02:16 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 3:00:08 PM

10-year ($TNX.X) up 2.8 bp at 4.859% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:58:59 PM

IWM $83.53 +0.24% ... sticks its head back above MONTHLY 19.1%. Juuuust undercut DAILY Pivot on that pullback.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 2:53:46 PM

No Jeff, I haven't tried anything on the Chinese market. Just amusing to watch what's going on over there. Actually it's not so amusing when you think of the number of Mom and Pops who are going to get hurt bad. A lot of ordinary citizens have a way of investing in their stock market for the very first time and they've all been caught up in the feeding frenzy. Unfortunately the end of the story is a well known ending and there will be a lot of pain.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:50:13 PM

You short/put anything "Chinese" Keene?

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:47:18 PM

On Friday, look to dump one of them at $85.00.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:46:43 PM

Swing trade bullish call alert ... for an additional iShares Russell 2000 IWM July $83 Call (IOW-GE) at the offer of $2.50.

IWM $83.35 -0.07%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:45:41 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 1.6 bp at 4.847% ...

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 2:43:37 PM

Pardon me for laughing but who doesn't see a decline coming in the Chinese stocks? Their stock market puts the tech rally into 2000 to shame. That one is not going to end pretty.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:42:52 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $129.92 +0.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:42:28 PM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $33.93 -0.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:41:54 PM

CNBC ... Just said they've heard Greenspan mention today that he sees a decline coming in Chinese stocks.

See Monday's Market Wrap for insight.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 2:41:23 PM

Bonds are oversold on the daily chart and showing bullish divergences at today's low on the 60-min chart. They should be starting a larger bounce over the next several days. I suspect we'll be seeing more money rotate out of stocks and into bonds.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 2:39:22 PM

With the RUT now having dropped back below the trend line along the highs since April 25th, the one just above 839, that line could act as resistance now. We should see a small consolidation for about an hour or so followed by more selling, perhaps right into today's close. Bears need to stay cautious though--as steep as the drop was, the decline from today's high is still only a 3-wave (corrective) move down. Any rally back above 843 would have me out of my short play.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 2:33:26 PM

With the way bonds rallied hard at the same time stocks sold off it looks like a big player (or two or three) hit the "rotate" button and sold stocks while buying Treasuries. Pretty smart move if you ask me.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 2:28:44 PM

Not even a speed bump as the RUT smokes on through that trend line near 839.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:27:22 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $50.02 +0.20% ... quiet from 02:12 trade of $49.93.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 2:24:02 PM

After a picture-perfect 5th wave ending to the RUT's rally today, the decline is looking good (for shorts). The trend line along recent highs, at 839.20, will likely act as support for a bounce/consolidation before dropping lower. Gettng there as I type so we'll see if it at least acts as a speed bump. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:23:50 PM

Explosion Heard In Beirut from 02:12 PM EDT

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 2:12:13 PM

ER is finding support at previous day and overnight highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:10:18 PM

Rules are ... ONCE a close above/below a level, then STOP at a minimum should be TWO levels below/above the level closed.

So far, CYBP has only close BELOW Red#2, so STOP for a short needs to be disciplined with RISK assessed to $18.20.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 2:08:15 PM

CYBP ... day trader's 5-minute interval chart with a LOWER 5-mrt Link

A technique using fibonacci retracement I developed a couple of years ago. Provides discipline for stocks that "gap" more than 7% from a prior close.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 2:02:12 PM

In case this is a head fake move down I'd now lower my stop to just above the highs around 1:30. Price should not get back up there if we've seen the highs. It would also be a good time to reverse long if stopped out of your short play.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 1:59:35 PM

Down she goes. Looks good for shorts.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 1:59:11 PM

TICKS just hit -1000!

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 1:56:50 PM

I'm NOT holding any underlying short in CYPB overnight.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 1:55:58 PM

Covering a partial position day trade short in CYPB here at $16.18.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 1:51:40 PM

After touching 845 the RUT is turning back down. Once it drops back below the mid-day low at 842.78 (assuming it will) then lower stops on short plays to just above the last bounce high. Until then this could easily turn right back around and head higher still.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 1:48:40 PM

Can't tie for certain, but FRX has traded RED #5 of 5-MRT.

CYPB $16.13 +90.88% has come close to RED #3 $15.97. Red #4 at $15.45 and Red #5 at $14.60.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 1:44:43 PM

US House OKs Criminal Penalties For Gasoline Price Gouging

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 1:44:05 PM

BBC- Lord Levy To Resign As UK PM Blair's Mideast Envoy

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 1:40:13 PM

DAX is supporting more upside as well. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 1:39:03 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 1:38:15 PM

I think we have more upside from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 1:28:34 PM

01:15 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 1:20:34 PM

A break below SPX 1529 would be a sell signal now.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 1:19:23 PM

SPX looks like it might get up to around 1535, at the top of a small ascending wedge for the move up from yesterday afternoon. But the trend line along the highs from May 4th, at 1533.15, could stop it again. In fact that would be a good place to nibble on a short again. This rally could be ending sooner than the green price depiction here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 1:17:25 PM

01:15 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 1:12:00 PM

For silver shorts, this YI 60-min chart shows it has been finding resistance at the broken trend line along lows of a previous consolidation. The bounce off last week's low looks corrective and I anticipate silver will sell off again to new lows. A break back below 13.00 (July contract) should be followed by strong selling. Link

The risk for shorts is today's break of its downtrend line from April 23rd which looks bullish but I think the best it will do is to continue chopping a little higher. The negative divergence at today's high suggests today's new buyers might be in trouble. But just in case, today's high makes for a good stop level, or just above that trend line that has been stopping the bounces so far.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 1:11:49 PM

There's alway one bear in a fox hole Jane!

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 1:07:35 PM

Like I said earlier this is not a day to be short.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 1:04:55 PM

IWM $83.88 +0.66% ... Daily Interval chart with MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Should get some bullish momentum going as MACD "hooks up" above zero.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 12:58:31 PM

IWM $83.86 +0.63% ... Hold strong you bullish troops. IWM sitting on TOP of its WEEKLY R2 ($83.73). MONTHLY R2 above at $85.06.

While the chatter of gunfire from the beaches of Normandy sound formidable, I think buyers will prevail!

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 12:50:33 PM

So far it's looking like a very small bear flag is forming so it's looking like we'll see a move lower perhaps right after the lunch crowd returns. The RUT could make it back up to around 845 and retest its broken uptrend line from yesterday's mid-day low.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 12:48:07 PM

Can history repeat itself? ... Stay tuned and find out.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 12:47:39 PM

The SPX.X's all-time intra-day high was 1,552.87. From current levels of trade (1,530.52) a rise to 1,552.87 would equate to a 1.46% advance.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 12:44:11 PM

This day in history saw the SPX falling into the Memorial Day holiday as the SPX struggled to hold its trending higher 200-day SMA (1,258).

Buyers stepped up on Thursday as the SPX jumped higher by 14 points, or +1.14% to its 150-day SMA.

On Friday, the SPX rose an additional 7 points, or +0.57% to close at 1,280.16.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 12:32:48 PM

It would only be fitting for the S&P 500 (SPX.X) to CLOSE at an all-time high on Friday.

Without the sacrifices of many, the greatest bull market in history would not have been possible.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 12:32:18 PM

and (in reference to Jeff's 12:26 post) they may as well be closed on Friday as well because trading will be really really slow.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 12:30:32 PM

Out of Office: ... I will be out of the office on Friday (5/25/07) in order to attend the funeral of a close family friend.

"Mr. V" as we called him was a World War II veteran and will be put to rest at Ft. Logan National Cemetery. His stories of World War II and sacrifices made will not be forgotten.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 12:26:32 PM

Reminder: ... Markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 12:25:04 PM

Pro-Troops Rally In Washington, D.C. This Saturday

DJ- Gathering of Eagles, a non-partisan grassroots group of pro-victory veterans and other patriotic Americans, will be joining Rolling Thunder for the "Saluting Our Troops" rally this Saturday, May 26th, at the Lincoln Memorial.

Rolling Thunder, which is hosting the rally, is marking the twentieth anniversary of their annual Memorial Day weekend activities demanding the federal government account for and repatriate POWs and MIAs as well as seeking improved care for our nation's veterans.

Rolling Thunder will be holding their annual motorcycle ride from the Pentagon to the Vietnam Veterans Memorial on Sunday, May 27.

Saturday's 'Saluting Our Troops' rally will feature veterans, Gold Star families and military family members.

The parents of Army Sgt. Keith "Matt" Maupin, who was captured by the enemy in Iraq on April 9, 2004, will be speaking at the rally.

Maj. Gen. Irene Trowell-Harris, U.S. Air National Guard (Ret.) is scheduled to be the keynote speaker.

Others scheduled to address the rally include Rolling Thunder Executive Director Artie Muller, Gathering of Eagles Chairman Capt. Larry Bailey, USN (Ret.) and OIF Gold Star mother Merrilee Carlson, President of Families United for Our Troops and Their Mission.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 12:20:36 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Two days of closed-door talks between the United States and China on economic issues have yielded "tangible results," Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Wednesday.

His counterpart, Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi, said the talks between the two economic superpowers were a "complete success."

Paulson said the dialogue with China will continue in a cooperative spirit.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 12:21:28 PM

Consumer Note: ... Received notice from my local trash collector yesterday that starting June 1, they will be raising their price by about 10% due to increases in fuel prices.

They are a small/local trash collector.

Should gasoline prices fall I let you know if they lower their fee.

Or keep it and build their gross margins.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 12:19:56 PM

These remain very bullish and I would not try a short here. Link

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 12:12:34 PM

Here's how the wave count for the RUT looks after reaching today's high. It counts very clean and now with price starting to break its uptrend line from Tuesday we could be getting confirmation that at least that rally leg is finished. Within the larger wave count it suggests a major high may have been put in today. Link

The next important uptrend line to break is the one from last Friday, currenly just under 842, with better confirmation with a drop back below 840. Once the RUT bounces back up and turns back down to a new low then you'll be able to lower your stop on a short to just above the bounce high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 12:05:04 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

OPEN Profiles Stops/Targets at this Link (targets/stop based on UNDERLYING security)

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 12:00:28 PM

It's only small time frame stuff but the RUT looks to have made a 5-wave decline from its high and that further supports the idea that the top is in on that one. If you shorted the RUT, keep your stop at a new daily high for now.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 11:59:12 AM

Waiting for MACD to turn back down here and make yet another divergence. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 11:58:09 AM

Y the heck didn't I buy the $RUT when the jtHMA system told me too!!! Because of my bias that we were overextended! Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 11:46:25 AM

The Smith Open system is giving you a +10 in all markets. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 11:41:45 AM

Support and resistance are very clear on this chart of Crude. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 11:40:20 AM

I am liking the looks of this chart but resistance needs to break before you can make any kind of inferences from it. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 11:37:22 AM

As long as the VIX is not confirming the AD volume price will not make new daily highs. But as long as the AD volume is not making new daily lows price will not make new daily lows either. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 11:02:27 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 11:08:35 AM

SPX is currently stalled at the trend line along the highs since May 4th. This 60-min chart shows the possbility for a larger sideways consolidation before getting the final 5th wave high for the move up from May 10th. It calls for another pullback from here but not a top to the rally. Just something to be aware of--it says the market (or at least SPX) will not top out until closer to the end of the month (next week). Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:53:44 AM

XOM $83.36 +0.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:53:18 AM

SUN $79.02 +1.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:53:03 AM

FTO $38.39 +2.23% ...

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 10:53:00 AM

Since the RUT continues to show one of the cleanest patterns, this push up to a new high now makes for a clean 5-wave move from yesterday afternoon's close. It's possible we'll get one more minor new high (watch the 1-min chart) which should be a very good short setup (should stay below 847). Then if we get another down-up sequence to a new high (stopping you out) I'd try one more time at the new high.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:52:41 AM

VLO $76.04 +0.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:50:23 AM

EBAY $33.39 +0.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:50:08 AM

Snap Analysis: Barring any geopolitical or weather events, looks as if refiners starting to come back online. Should have gasoline/diesel prices steady, but easing from peak levels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:48:26 AM

EIA: Weekly Percent Utilization Of Refinery Operable Capacity (%) rose to 91.10% from prior week's 89.50%.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:47:30 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity unchanged at 17.469 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:46:20 AM

Estimating that EIA's # Days of Supply of Crude Oil at 22.40.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:45:24 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs into Refineries rose by 351,000 barrels/day to 15.69 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:44:26 AM

That has my # Days Supply of Crude Oil edging down to 22.03 from last week's 22.11.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:43:15 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries up 281,000 barrels/day to 15.91 million barrels/day.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 10:41:39 AM

For NDX, since it too is either very close to finishing its rally (based on the EW count) or already did, now use the uptrend line from May 16th as your signal to get short--a break of it says the rally leg is finished. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:40:56 AM

EIA: SPR added 82,000 barrels to 689.69 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:39:27 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles up 2.1 million barrels to 62.37 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:38:26 AM

AMR $28.15 +1.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:38:10 AM

CAL $40.26 +1.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:37:54 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel up 473,000 barrels to 40.47 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:36:45 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles up 512,000 barrels to 120.26 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:35:31 AM

EIA: Weekly Reformulated Gasoline Stockpiles down 176,000 barrels to 2.18 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:34:46 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles up 1.43 million barrels to 196.66 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:33:52 AM

PTR $131.07 +0.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:33:18 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $49.78 -0.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:32:40 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 1.97 million barrels to 344.19 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:26:17 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 10:24:03 AM

Notice what price did when the VIX retreated? Moved sideways. Link

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 10:19:25 AM

After this mornng's rally any drop back below yesterday afternoon's low would be a signal that we've topped out which would be a more conservative way to find an opportunity to short this market.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:08:36 AM

Overstock.com (OSTK) $19.05 +2.52% ... jumps from $18.40

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 10:07:49 AM

I stepped away for a couple of minutes and I see the RUT has wasted no time in getting up to the top of the range I mentioned to watch for topping. So here we are. Ready to short? It's getting in the way of rising knives but look for a rollover on the 5 and 10-min charts for some clues.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 10:07:01 AM

Remember yesterday I said this setup doesn't come around every day so take it when it does. Well lately it has been coming around everyday. Hopefully you were all able to get on board for this ride. The VIX and AD volume were in sync at 9:53. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:06:09 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:05:41 AM

CYPB $17.50 +107% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:05:00 AM

Olin Corp. (OLN) $20.78 +1.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:04:35 AM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $35.75 +1.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:03:57 AM

IWM $84.00 +0.80% ... X gets the square.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 10:03:22 AM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) alert! 844.07 +0.50% ... 61.8% of my bullish vertical count retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 9:59:40 AM

For those new to the MM, it is my rule that I do NOT go outright short any biotech company. It is the one that finds the cure for cancer, or any major disease that blows up a short's account. Use OPTIONS to minimize risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 9:57:09 AM

Target on the QGY-SD is $15.00 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 9:56:29 AM

Swing trade put alert ... for one (1) of the Cypress Bioscience CPYB July $20 Puts (QGY-SD) at the offer of $3.70 ($2.75 x $3.70).

CYPB $17.35 +105%

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 9:52:18 AM

Dow Jones (DJ) $54.00 +4.87% ... Bancroft family to meet with News Corp (NWS) $23.86 +0.25% today.

Linda Piazza : 5/23/2007 9:41:16 AM

I'm stopping by for a second to suggest that index bulls keep a watch on the S&P Midcap Index (MID). It got sold hard when it approached yesterday's high this morning, reversing all its first gains. It's trying to climb again, and maybe a breakout will be successful this time, but maybe it won't. The MID has almost, but not quite, replaced the TRAN as my indicator index of choice to watch sentiment.

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 9:40:32 AM

For gold traders I've got gold (GLD) in a bear flag and I'm hoping to see it push a little higher into a Fib resistance zone of 65.86-66.01 which would be at the top of its bear flag. It should be a good short from there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 9:32:36 AM

Toll Bros. (TOL) $30.46 +0.86% ... gaps slightly above its 150-day SMA ($30.25). ABOVE all SMA's.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 9:28:35 AM

DRUG Sector Bullish % ... reversed up to "bear correction" status on 04/16/07.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 9:27:45 AM

FRX Link ... some room to its bullish vertical count. A trade at $56 would trigger "bullish triangle" pattern.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 9:25:07 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures nudged higher in early Wednesday action as a weakening dollar against major currencies boosted demand for the precious metal.

Gold for June delivery gained $3.40 at $663.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"A better day dawned for gold on Wednesday, as a pause in the dollar's advances against the euro gave the necessary stimulus to traders looking to buy a bit of metal at current prices," said Jon Nadler, metals analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in a morning note.

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 9:24:47 AM

CYPB Link ... Bullish Vertical count ($16.50) may be achieved at the open. If long, might suggest taking partial off the table.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 9:23:28 AM

IF the monthly and weekly jtHMA charts are green then the daily/120/60 jtHMA turn red this is a setup for a "buy the dip" and I will go long once the 60 turns back green. If you remember my comments I said the markets were overextended and that I was not taking that long signal. Looks like I should have doesn't it? Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/23/2007 9:17:19 AM

Forest Labs, Cypress Bioscience Post Milnacipran Data ... Reuters Story Link

FRX $51.88 ... $56.70 pre-market.

CYPB $8.45 ... $17.57 pre-market.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 9:17:15 AM

Just a quick look at the daily gold chart and you can see that it is finding resistance at magenta 20EMA and the 50EMA. The weakness in the $ today is telling me the support at 650 will hold for now. I am not bullish on gold anymore but certainly not bearish either. Link

Keene Little : 5/23/2007 9:15:13 AM

Nice overnight rally in equities so it looks like we'll get the new rally leg right out of the gate (just be careful about a whipsaw move back down as part of the consolidation that price has been in the past 2 days). Assuming we'll get the rally leg just keep an eye on the levels I've got on the charts below.

Summarizing, these are the upside potential targets if the bulls can keep this going: DOW 13660-13700, SPX 1542-1545, NDX 1926-1930, and RUT 843-846. Whether they'll all get hit, or if price will even stop there, is an unknown but those price zones are where I'll be watching very carefully for signs of topping.

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 9:14:26 AM

Then we have the Wilshire 5000 and as you can see everything I said about the SPX you can apply here. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 9:12:26 AM

It is kind of interesting how ER and NQ get in sync sometimes, not always but sometimes and they sure are here. Everything I said about ER you can apply here. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 9:10:00 AM

Here is another very clear MACD divergence and another market that is just prime for a revisit to at least is 23.60% fib retracement. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 9:07:05 AM

Huge MACD divergence on the SPX and a revisit to at least the lower channel which is now the 50EMA is almost baked in the cake. Well as much as you can bake anything in the market that is. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 9:04:46 AM

The Russell 2000 cash index is getting kind of interesting here. I contend that if you have a sideways move and the MACD is falling the MACD is not bearishly diverging but bullishly confirming however, and this is a big however, the MACD needs to catch up with price eventually. The $Rut is making new yearly (actually all time) highs but now the MACD needs to catch up. If it does not and turns down here then we have a huge MACD divergence to match the divergences on all the other markets. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 8:59:09 AM

Here is a daily chart of the US$ that shows the resistance from the December 2006 lows and the 50EMA. It looks like the $ is building a big bear flag albeit a very big one.

MACD is not telling me much other than it is confirming the charts and not showing any divergences. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 8:53:51 AM

It may be time to get back into Gold because the US$ is taking a huge dive here. The $ has meet with some major resistance from its December 2006 lows and the 50EMA, which looks like it has not been able to break.

Crude fell yesterday and overnight it just bumped along its PDL.

The DAX broke its PDH overnight but YM has not. so far I have seen the DAX and YM lead one another but I have not been able to decipher who is leading whom. I shorted YM yesterday because the DAX was making new daily lows and YM was not. I made a few points on the trade but then the two got back into sync and almost traded tick for tick. Link

Jane Fox : 5/23/2007 8:39:32 AM

The equity markets were in rally mode overnight and ER even tested its PDH. ER's PDH was 843.90 and overnight high was 843.70 obviously a very important area of resistance. Link

Market Monitor Archives