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Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:52:47 AM

Wyoming Senator Craig Thomas Has Died, Family Members Say

DJ- Wyoming Sen. Craig Thomas, a three-term conservative Republican who stayed clear of the Washington limelight and political catfights, died Monday. He was 74.

The senator's family issued a statement saying he died Monday evening at National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, Md. He had been receiving chemotherapy for acute myeloid leukemia.

Just before the 2006 election, Thomas was hospitalized with pneumonia and had to cancel his last campaign stops. He nonetheless won with 70% of the vote, monitoring the election from his hospital bed.

Two days after the election, Thomas announced that he had just been diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia. Gov. Dave Freudenthal, a Democrat, will appoint a successor from one of three finalists chosen by the state Republican party.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:49:30 AM

Nikkie-225 ($NIKK) Link ... Up 57 points, or +0.32% at 18,031.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:49:27 AM

Hang Seng ($HSI) Link ... Down 50 points, or -0.25% at 20,579.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:49:22 AM

Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) Link ... Down 207 points, or 5.66% at 3,463.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:33:30 AM

RUT.X Options Montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:19:51 AM

IWM Options Montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 11:28:30 PM

RUT.X with WEEKLY/MONTHLY retracement and a different "5-wave" count Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 10:56:34 PM

CME's Feb'08 and May'08 Housing Futures Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 10:50:37 PM

CME's Nov07 Housing Futures Table at this Link ... A "bright spot" appears in New York Metro as Friday's 208.40 edges above its 2/23/07 sub-prime highs.

Composite's 1-point box chart gets a 3-box reversal higher to 215.00 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 10:39:47 PM

CME's Aug07 Housing Futures Table at this Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 10:17:26 PM

End of day re-posts:

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

The DOW's 30-min chart shows two possibilities from here. The more immediately bullish scenario is only short term bullish in that it calls for a very small pullback on Tuesday and then a minor new high at the 13706 Fib target to then be followed by a stronger pullback/sell off. The slightly more bullish scenario actually calls for an immediate pullback on Tuesday, finding support around 13600 and then a rally up to around 13730 before it too is set up for a stronger decline. Link

The RUT stopped at the 138% projection of the May 23-24 decline, a very common Fib projection off a previous move (along with 127%). So watch for a potentially larger pullback on Tuesday. But ideally, if we're putting in the final 5th wave of the move up from May 24th, we'll see a minor down-up sequence to finish off the rally to perhaps the 857-858 area before starting a stronger decline. Link

Here's an interesting possibility for SPX--it may have topped today and starting tomorrow we'll get at least a larger pullback if not something more significant. I've relabeled the wave count for the move up from May 24th to be more like the RUT's count (for the 1st and 2nd waves of the move up) and this changes the upside projections for the 5th wave. Link

There are a couple of things of interest on this chart of the NDX: Link First is the glaring bearish divergence at today's high vs. the previous two highs last Thursday and Friday. Second is the 127% projection of the May 23-24 decline at 1539.84. This is a very common projection to use off a previous move, the decline in this case, to see where the rally leg might stop.

Third is the 62% projection for the 5th wave related to the 1st wave which is at 1539.87 (and I show the small 5th wave ending diagonal pattern). If I label the count similar to the RUT's then equality between the 1st and 5th waves is at 1940.30. Fourth, price did a little over-throw of the ascending wedge and looks ready to drop back down inside. There are too many signals here to ignore--this ones says look for a down day tomorrow and possibly beyond that.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 10:15:28 PM

Japan's Economic Minister Ota

DJ- Japanese Economy Minister Hiroko Ota said Tuesday that she will continue to monitor the economic impact from the current weakness in production.

"While corporate investment has been confirmed to be strong by the data (released on Monday), production is still weak, and I'd like to monitor its impact on the economy in the coming month or two," she told a regular press conference.

Data released Monday by the Finance Ministry showed that Japanese business spending rose 13.6% in January-March from a year earlier for the fifth straight quarter of double-digit increases.

Ota's remarks suggest the government's wariness about the outlook for the world's second largest economy given various domestic and overseas risk factors.

Among such factors is a slowdown of the U.S. economy, the minister said.

"I think the current production weakness may be reflecting to a certain extent the slowdown of the U.S. economy. While I believe the U.S. economy is heading for a soft-landing, it is a risk factor for the Japanese economy," Ota said.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 10:13:09 PM

US Fed OKs Huntington Bancshares Acquisition Of Sky Financial

DJ- The U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday approved Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN) plans to acquire Sky Financial Group Inc. (SKYF), both of Ohio.

Following completion of the deal, Huntington would become the 34th-largest depository institution in the U.S., with total assets of about $53 billion.

Huntington would also become the third-largest depository institution in Ohio.

OI Technical Staff : 6/4/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 9:53:39 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 9:52:37 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 6:22:58 PM

The RUT stopped at the 138% projection of the May 23-24 decline, another very common Fib projection off a previous move. So watch for a potentially larger pullback on Tuesday. But ideally, if we're putting in the final 5th wave of the move up from May 24th, we'll see a minor down-up sequence to finish off the rally to perhaps the 857-858 area before starting a stronger decline. Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 6:16:21 PM

The DOW's 30-min chart shows two possibilities from here. The more immediately bullish scenario is only short term bullish in that it calls for a very small pullback on Tuesday and then a minor new high at the 13706 Fib target to then be followed by a stronger pullback/sell off. The slightly more bullish scenario actually calls for an immediate pullback on Tuesday, finding support around 13600 and then a rally up to around 13730 before it too is set up for a stronger decline. Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 5:37:47 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 5:27:38 PM

While SPX gives me the impression that it MIGHT have made the high today for its move up from May 24th, NDX would look better with another small choppy pullback and new high on Tuesday. That would then set up at least a pullback into Wednesday/Thursday. Notice also that the 62% projection for the 5th wave at 1941.49 is very close to the 127% projection from the May 23-24 decline at 1940.20. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 4:59:53 PM

World Bullish % Bell Curve (05/09/07) at this Link

World Bullish % Bell Curve (06/01/07) at this Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 4:50:11 PM

Here's an interesting possibility for SPX--it may have topped today and starting tomorrow we'll get at least a larger pullback if not something more significant. I've relabeled the wave count for the move up from May 24th to be more like the NDX and RUT counts (for the 1st and 2nd waves of the move up) and this changes the upside projections for the 5th wave. Link

There are a couple of things of interest on this chart. First is the glaring bearish divergence at today's high vs. the previous two highs last Thursday and Friday. Second is the 127% projection of the May 23-24 decline at 1539.84. This is a very common projection to use off a previous move, the decline in this case, to see where the rally leg might stop.

Third is the 62% projection for the 5th wave related to the 1st wave which is at 1539.87 (and I show the small 5th wave ending diagonal pattern). Fourth, price did a little over-throw of the ascending wedge and looks ready to drop back down inside. There are too many signals here to ignore--look for a down day tomorrow and possibly beyond that.

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 4:21:01 PM

I was asked for my opinion on the mid cap index (MID.X) so here's my best guess on its daily and 30-min charts: Link and Link

The daily chart shows Fib potential to 937 which crosses the top of its parallel up-channel from March on Wednesday. And the 30-min chart shows the same potential (936.53) based on a 200% projection of the Mary 23-24 decline. But the bearish side of things here says to watch for topping at or below the 927 area which is a 162% projection of the May 23-24 decline and where the 5th wave = 1st wave in the move up from May 24th. At the very least we should get a larger pullback once this 5-wave move up from May 24th completes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 4:14:08 PM

EIA: US Avg. Retail Gasoline Down 5.2c To $3.157/Gal On Week

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 3:55:13 PM

A similar pattern for the RUT (small 5th wave ending diagonal) would likely take it to between 855-860. Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 3:49:02 PM

With the market pushing higher today in what appears to be a very choppy move, I'm getting the impression we're going to see little ascending wedges develop for the 5th wave that I've been showing on the 30-min charts. This adds credence to the idea that we might see the 5th waves only achieve 62% of the 1st waves, as just discussed for the DOW. The NDX pattern looks similar at this point and the 62% projection might look something lik this to make a double top. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 3:47:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 3:33:09 PM

In the meantime, the DOW is nearing a potentially important Fib projection based on two equal legs up from October 2002, at 13706. DOW monthly: Link

This is important because of the short term pattern calling for one more high to finish the 5th wave up from May 24th. Will it be THE top this time? Going with just the monthly chart and this current leg up I'd have to say it looks awfully inviting for a bearish play. The 5th wave of the move up from May 24th achieves 62% of the 1st wave (the first common Fib relationship between these two waves) at 13706. Coincidence? Maybe not. Button up those stops if you're long. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 3:29:37 PM

SPY $154.24 +0.10% ... Weekly Interval Chart from last Tuesday Link

I still think a close below $150.86 needed to even think "top", yet observe one again.

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 3:23:04 PM

If SPX were to head higher from here (or after a minor pullback later this week) to the top of its weekly up-channel (for price action since October 2002) then the 1563-1566 Fib zone that I showed earlier for SPX ( Link ) matches up almost exactly with the top of the channel. This would suggest a top sooner rather than later.

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 3:18:08 PM

Here's an interesting weekly perspective of the SPX using just parallel up-channels. The top of the channel for price action since the October 2002 low intersects the top of the channel for price action since July 2006 at 1590 in the 1st week of September. Maybe we will rally through the summer and set up for the typical fall swoon. It doesn't mean we won't get a deeper correction between now and then, but this chart certainly points to a bullish summer. SPX 1590 would be roughly 14200 for the DOW. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 3:12:01 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 3:02:20 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 2:58:33 PM

The 10-year yield (TNX) is pulling back today but so far it looks like a corrective pullback (corrective bounce in bonds). I think there's a good chance we'll see TNX hold at or above 4.9% before heading higher again to potential resistance by its downtrend line from January 2000 through the June 2006 high, currently just above 5.0%. Then a little larger pullback followed by another rally leg should break that resistance as rates head higher into the summer. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 2:58:25 PM

AMR Corp. (AMR) $27.18 -4.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 2:57:42 PM

Continental Airlines' Stock Tumbles ... AP Story Link

CAL $37.40 -6.21% ...

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 2:48:59 PM

At its early morning high GOOG came close to tagging its Fib projection at 512.91 for two equal legs up from March. That also coincides very closely with the November and January highs at 513.00. This should be a good level for a short play as I think we'll see either a top here (per the bearish scenario) or at least a pullback before heading higher again into July (as per the bullish scenario). Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 2:42:57 PM

ECB's Wellink

DJ- Dutch Central Bank President Nout Wellink warned Monday against complacency over inflation risks, even as consumer price trends remain low and stable.

Wellink, a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, was speaking at a conference in Buenos Aires. He appeared to make his remarks in general terms but in a way that could apply to the situation in the euro zone.

"Low and stable consumer price inflation is no reason for complacency," Wellink said.

"Despite consumer price stability, asset price inflation may signal underlying imbalances, such as an overall domestic risk assessment by market participants that leaves long-term interest rates at historically low levels."

He said central bankers need to be forward-looking. His comments come as the ECB prepares to make an expected 25-basis-point increase in interest rates on Wednesday.

Despite euro-zone inflation running at close to the ECB's 2% target, many economists expect the central bank to make further rate hikes later in the year.

Speaking immediately after Wellink, Erkki Liikanen, a fellow member of the ECB and head of Finland's central bank, supported earlier comments by Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi in favor of continued use of monetary analysis for central bank policy making.

Liikanen conceded that the effectiveness of monetary analysis may have declined in terms of predicting short-term inflation trends, but he emphasized it continues to be valuable for long-term forecasting.

"Money aggregates, credit growth, asset prices, etc., contain valuable information and remain relevant for assessing long-term consumer inflation prospects and, importantly, potential emerging threats to financial stability."

His and Draghi's comments are important because they place them in opposition to others in the ECB who would prefer to either increase its soft-target "reference values" for M3 money growth or abandon it altogether. Annual growth in M3 is currently running at around 10%, well above the 4.5% reference value, which is one reason why the ECB is expected to continue raising rates this year.

Recent research by the French central bank concluded that analyzing monetary aggregates is no longer relevant to central bank policy making because of the growth of hedge funds and other non-bank intermediaries in controlling monetary instruments.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 2:38:03 PM

ECB's Wellink: Money Aggregates, Credit Growth, Asset Prices, etc., Contain Valuable Information

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 2:36:19 PM

ECB's Wellink: Low, Stable Inflation No Reason For Complacency

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 2:27:12 PM

Crude Oil Tops $66 As Storm Threatens Persian Gulf

DJ- Crude oil futures rallied more than $1 and topped $66 a barrel Monday as an Arabian Sea cyclone threatened to disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf.

Cyclone Gonu is expected to hit the Persian Gulf in the next 24 hours, according to a U.S. Navy officer in Bahrain, who warned coalition military ships in the area to avoid the storm.

Reuters, quoting the official Oman News Agency, said Oman, a small Persian Gulf oil producer put its army and police on high alert ahead of the storm.

"There is concern the storm could disrupt shipping," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. "Any type of a disruption or in crude supply right now would be critical to a world thirsty for oil."

The July crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped $1.24 to $66.32 a barrel.

The July Brent contract on ICE Futures rallied $1.34 to $70.41 a barrel.

July reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, gained 93 points to $2.2539 a gallon.

July heating oil soared 5.38 cents to $1.9766 a gallon.

The storm had an outsize impact on prices in part because prices were already in rally mode following gains of more than $1 Friday.

In addition, the sharp rally in heating oil and an equally strong rally in natural gas futures spurred fresh speculative buying interest in energy futures, traders said.

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 2:22:37 PM

Certainly after the drubbing the Chinese market has taken again, if our market can hold up this well then you know the bulls will be out pounding the table about what a resilient market this is. And they're right. The only scary thing is that the bulls are believing more and more that they're invincible. So enjoy the run higher with them (I'm still expecting a leg higher out of this consolidation) but don't get complacent with them.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 1:51:52 PM

Hang Seng ($HSI.X) 50-point box chart with Monday's action at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 1:30:07 PM

Stop at 853.20

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 1:24:42 PM

Mother MER is not acting well today, down -2.5%. And when Momma ain't happy there ain't no one happy. It's quite possible we'll get at least another pullback in the consolidation shown earlier for SPX. Watch 1532 area for support as a buying opportunity though. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 1:22:16 PM

Short at 852.30.

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 1:19:13 PM

CME is nearing potential resistance at its downtrend line from January, which coincides with its May high near 545. A push above that level would likely have it pressing up to at least 555 which is where it would have two equal legs up from the May low and run into its broken uptrend line from August 2006. Link

The green price path shows the bullish projection to a new high into July while the bearish projections show resistance holding (either at 545 or 555) which will be followed by a strong decline to new annual lows. It takes a break below 508 to confirm the bearish scenario.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 1:17:50 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 1:08:22 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 1:05:55 PM

Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) 50-point box with Monday's action at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 12:56:16 PM

Moving my short back to 852.30 into the lunch hour and I shouldn't be trading at all.

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 12:54:32 PM

Once the weekly Gold jtHMA turns green I will be buying GLD. I used this same setup to get long the SPX back mid April. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 12:45:07 PM

I am raising my short to 852.80.

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 12:38:07 PM

The RUT's 162% price projection off the May 23-24 decline matches closely to a 5th wave projection near 860 for an upside target. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 12:37:04 PM

I am still long my July DIA puts. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 12:35:22 PM

I will be going short ER at 852.30.

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 12:30:07 PM

NDX looks like it may have finished its 4th wave correction at this morning's spike down. The Fib projection for its 5th wave up is at 1954.64. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 12:28:54 PM

Novastar Financial (NFI) $7.76 +4.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 12:27:52 PM

Accredited Home Lending (LEND) To Be Acquired For $400 Million

Reuters Story Link

LEND $15.41 +11.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 12:23:02 PM

VIX.X 13.41 +4.92% ...

VXN.X 17.06 +2.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 12:20:07 PM

Swing trade Covered Call establish stop alert ... place a stop on the previously sold two (2) IWM Jun $85 Calls (IOW-FG) at $85.30 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 12:18:02 PM

Swing trade sell NAKED Call(s) alert ... Let's sell two (2) of the ishares Russell 2000 (IWM Jun $86 Calls (IOW-FH) at the bid of $0.51.

IWM $84.67 -0.03% ...

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 11:50:40 AM

SPX has the same pattern to the upside as I showed for the DOW. It could resolve to the upside at any time but if it drops back down to the lows of the current consolidation I'd look to buy it. The Fib projection out of this, for equality between the 1st and 5th waves, is near 1549 which is also the 162% projection off the May 23-24 decline. That would then set up a decline on Wednesday/Thursday which would leave us wondering if it'll be another head fake move for a bullish run into opex week. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 11:43:58 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Businesses boosted their capital spending in April at a faster pace than previously reported, the Commerce Department said Monday.

Orders for core capital equipment goods rose 2.1% in April, revised up from 1.2% reported two weeks ago, the government said. Shipments of core capital goods -- which exclude both defense goods and civilian aircraft -- increased 1%, ahead of the 0.7% previously reported

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 11:34:08 AM

Being Canadian I wonder if I should use a hockey analogy instead of football.

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 11:33:29 AM

These charts are telling me no one has the ball today, it is just rolling around mid field and each side is to busy fighting with each other to grab it and run. Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 11:32:48 AM

The sideways consolidaiton continues and it fits well as a 4th wave correction in the move up from May 24th. This could continue into this afternoon before resolving to the upside again. The DOW 13760-13780 area continues to make a good upside target for the next move up. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 11:32:26 AM

Flextronics Buys Solectron in $3.6B Deal

AP Story Link

FLEX $11.56 -1.28% Link
SLR $3.86 +14.54% Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 11:31:55 AM

VIX is hovering within its daily range and not giving a lot of clues and so is the AD Volume but the TICKS mostly trading well above 0 and the TRIN at 0.86 tell you the bulls have the upper hand. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 11:30:00 AM

If you see the VIX falling to a new daily low expect ES to make a new daily high. These two are joined at the hip. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 11:28:39 AM

And just as I thought, the US$ is falling. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 11:29:09 AM

Oooops! That I did Linda. Sorry about that. I changed prior post.

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 11:27:31 AM

Jeff got us mixed up again Linda.

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 11:26:55 AM

Oh my goodness Gold is waking up again. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 11:28:00 AM

Good observation Linda (11:01:21)! ... See 05/21/07 Market Wrap for insight Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 11:24:51 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: NYSE volumes look to be incorrect. Shares of Solectron (NYSE:SLR) $3.85 +14.24% already at 70.6 million traded. Wal-Mart (WMT) $50.94 +2.97% ... 22.7 million traded.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 11:02:38 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/4/2007 11:01:21 AM

Friday, I posted a chart of the USD/JPY, showing that there had been some correlation in the behavior of its chart and that of U.S. equities. Last week, the USD/JPY was facing important resistance on its weekly chart, so I thought the chart might be important to watch. I noted Friday and again reiterate today that I'm far from being an expert in intermarket relationships and couldn't make predictions as to what would happen or whether the relationship seen over the last year would continue to hold. There are too many permutations of equity/bonds/commodities/interest rates/currencies that can impact the intermarket relationships for someone lacking a strong background in economics to predict. However, given what's happening in Asia and particularly in Japan, where rate-hike worries are rising, I thought it important to keep watching the chart. If there was going to be a pullback from resistance and if last week's candle, a potential reversal signal, was going to have implications, the USDJPY probably needed to move lower right away. It did, although it's bouncing back to test a short-term rising trendline (10-day) that it broke through today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 10:58:47 AM

BOOM's Weekly Pivot Levels ... $33.13, $34.94, Piv= $35.96, $37.77, $38.79.

MONTHLY Piv= $34.98, R1= $37.72, R2= $39.18.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 10:53:41 AM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert ... on Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $37.04 +0.78% ... to $36.70 (from $35.80).

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 10:29:07 AM

The bounce in gold on Thursday and Friday seems to have preceded the drop in the US dollar. Now gold is down only 1.60 while the dollar has made a harder drop. In fact the dollar has broken its uptrend line from April. A continuation lower in the dollar could help lift gold (August contract) to its 50-dma at 681.29 (currently trading 675.30) after bouncing off its 200-dma. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 10:21:13 AM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $50.91 +2.91% ... Multiple broker upgrades this morning. Firms citing company's decision to cut back on store-growth plans and step up share repurchase program.

JP Morgan "overweight" from "neutral."

HSBC "overweight" from "neutral."

Morgan Stanley "overweight" from "equal weight."

Wachovia "outperform" from "market perform."

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 10:09:33 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 10:02:00 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 9:49:19 AM

The little bounce off this morning's low could be followed by another quick flush to a new low before setting up the next rally leg so be careful of the whipsaws. The Chinese scare could get some here to start taking some profits off the table.

Keene Little : 6/4/2007 9:21:28 AM

Looks like a dip buying opportunity this morning! In actuality it just might be. The consolidation the past two days looks like a setup for another run higher but it could get a quick spike down to finish it first. Two equal legs down from Friday morning's highs gives us some downside targets to watch for support--DOW 13603, SPX 1528.24, NDX 1918.20 and RUT 846.85. To see where we are this morning, with the futures down, this would be YM 13622 and ES 1531 so they haven't dropped as far as the cash targets suggest is possible.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 9:20:08 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.06 -0.30% ... has traded MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/4/2007 9:19:15 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 8:56:22 AM

Dateline WSJ - SHANGHAI -- Another sharp fall in China's stock market underscored how quickly market challenges have flipped for China's government in the past week, from taming speculation to discouraging panic selling.

The Shanghai Composite Index on Monday sank 8.3% to 3670.40, its worst performance since February and the second biggest drop in a decade. The benchmark index has now shed 15% in the four sessions since Beijing tripled a trading tax just after midnight on May 30. Many of the market's smaller stocks have fallen even more substantially than the broader market, with more than half of the market's main class of shares finishing Monday down by 10%, the maximum that share prices can fluctuate in a day in China.

The plunge came despite a government editorial splashed across the front pages of financial newspapers Monday calling for "rationality" in the market. Regulators' decision to run the commentary in the state-controlled media appeared to reflect concern that last week's tax move had panicked the country's tens of millions of shareholders.

Officials have been trying to cool the speculative ardor that had caused a huge run-up in share prices since mid 2005. But they also fear that a market collapse could have broad economic consequences, like slower spending by China's middle class, and could trigger widespread public anger and reverse the work Beijing has done to develop full-functioning capital markets.

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 8:50:17 AM

Ditto for the DOW except it has a good chance of revisiting its lower trendline. The DOW has not even touched it 20EMA since April 12th. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 8:47:17 AM

I think there is a very good chance SPX will at least revisit its 20EMA this week. Heck if the bears get a good foothold it could revisit the 20EMA today. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 8:39:20 AM

DAX is now breaking its overnight lows and so is YM.

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 8:38:51 AM

The US $ is falling but I don't see Gold rallying however, I suspect it will based on the inverse relationship these two have and also because Oil is breaking its overnight high, which is a market Gold has a direct relationship with. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 8:34:05 AM

Overnight NQ broke its PDL but the only market to do so. There is news about "another precipitous drop in Shanghai-listed stocks overnight" and I am looking for Shanghai futures. I have had a few OIN members email with different symbols but they have been cash indexes and I have not yet found the futures so I can track the Chinese indexes overnight. Link

Jane Fox : 6/4/2007 8:26:28 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Worldwide microchip sales were $19.9 billion in April, which is up 1.6% from the same month in 2006 but down 2.1% from March, the Semiconductor Industry Association reported. "A very competitive semiconductor market, with declining average selling prices in major industry segments, contributed to a sequential decline in worldwide chip sales," said SIA President George Scalise in a statement.

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