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Keene Little : 6/6/2007 12:13:01 AM

If NDX pulls back Wednesday morning and stays inside its down-channel from last Friday's high then one more leg down could set up the rally out of it. Otherwise if price continues to chop up and down while heading lower then I see the possibility for it to find support at its uptrend line from March before rallying again. Support could show up at the trend line and a 50% retracement of the leg up from May 24th. Link

The light green path would actually look better on the daily chart pattern which would set up the last high for its rally from March, ending with a 5th wave ending diagonal and potentially coinciding with GOOG's last run up.

Keene Little : 6/6/2007 12:02:26 AM

This is a re-post of the GOOG charts posted at the end of the day, which may be pointing to a nearby high for GOOG and by extension the NDX:

GOOG's rally today took it above the resistance level of 513 (Fib and previous highs) so now the next resistance level is the trend line along the highs since January 2006 near 538. There's a Fib projection for the current leg up at 547 but I'm thinking that trend line will be tough resistance. Assuming the rally makes it up to 538 I'll then be looking for evidence of either topping out there or just a pullback. Link

The weekly chart shows the ascending wedge pattern and that top trend line that I think will be resistance (maybe a brief throw-over). The bearish divergences support the ascending wedge interpretation and says the next high near 540 should finish its rally from 2004. Link

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 11:59:49 PM

The DOW daily chart continues to look bullish even if weaker by the bearish divergences. Fib projections for the final 5th wave, according to the EW count on the chart, are at 13777 and then 13995. The bearish wave count calls Friday's high as the end of the rally and the rest of the price action since that time as the start of a more significant decline: Link

Earlier on Tuesday I had shown a 120-min chart and the parallel up-channel with price hanging out in the top half of the channel ( Link ) and this 60-min chart shows how price dropped below the mid line on Tuesday and then bounced back up to it by the close: Link

The internal price pattern of today's decline suggests another leg down on Wednesday and if it does then we'll find out if support holds near 13525 for another rally leg. A break below 13424 would be a heads up that something more bearish may have started.

This SPX 30-min chart shows a similar bullish setup if another decline Wednesday morning finds support in the 1522-1523 area. If it continues down through 1518 then I'd start thinking more bearishly. If it rallies immediately on Wednesday above 1535 then the pattern turns either more immediately bullish or will lead to more sideways chop. Link

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 10:01:27 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/5/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:27:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:19:12 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 4:52:50 PM

GOOG's rally today took it above the resistance level of 513 (Fib and previous highs) so now the next resistance level is the trend line along the highs since January 2006 near 538. There's a Fib projection for the current leg up at 547 but I'm thinking that trend line will be tough resistance. Assuming the rally makes it up to 538 I'll then be looking for evidence of either topping out there or just a pullback. Link

The weekly chart shows the ascending wedge pattern and that top trend line that I think will be resistance (maybe a brief throw-over). The bearish divergences support the ascending wedge interpretation and says the next high near 540 should finish its rally from 2004. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 4:37:26 PM

July Unleaded (rb07n) settled down $0.0307, or -1.37% at $2.2073.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 4:36:37 PM

July Crude Oil (cl07n) settled down $0.60, or -0.91% at $65.61.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 4:31:56 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 4:25:14 PM

GOLDMAN REVERSING 2007 RATE-CUT CALL

DJ- Firm becomes the latest Wall Street dealer to say it no longer forecasting any interest-rate cuts this year. Goldman's economists now see growth picking up faster and the jobless rate ticking higher more slowly than they previously expected.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 4:24:22 PM

AMAZON HITS 7-YEAR HIGH ON CHINA NEWS

DJ- Internet retailer's shares rise 5%, reaching level last seen as the bubble burst. Latest advance comes as Amazon.com outlines plans to increase its investment in its fastest-growing market, China.

AMZN $73.65 +4.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 4:23:28 PM

BUSH SAYS RUSSIAN REFORMS 'DERAILED'

DJ- President, while touting freedom and democracy as alternatives to radicalism, says democratic reforms in Russia have been 'derailed.' Bush also says Cold War isn't being revived by plans for missile shield in Eastern Europe.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 4:20:18 PM

FTC TO CHALLENGE WILD OATS TAKEOVER

DJ- Federal regulators will try to block Wild Oats' $565 million purchase by Whole Foods. The organics-foods supermarkets plan to work together to fight the effort in court.

WFMI $40.50 -2.85% ...

OATS $17.16 +1.47% ...

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 4:16:18 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

7:30a.m. May Challenger Layoffs. Previous: +44.2%.

8:30a.m. 1Q Revised Productivity. Expected: +1.0%. Previous: +1.7%.

8:30a.m. 1Q Revised Unit Labor Costs. Expected: +1.5%. Previous: +0.6%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 4:12:35 PM

Buy Program Premium ... YM 13,613

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 4:09:14 PM

"The GOOG" Jane!

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 4:07:06 PM

Interesting how strong NQ is today.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 4:06:50 PM

Markets are finding resistance at PDLs. Well ER and ES are YM is not anywhere near its PDL and NQ is well ABOVE its PDL. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 4:02:40 PM

ICE EXPERIENCES TERMINAL PROBLEMS

DJ- Some oil traders and brokers in London were hit by two disruptions to their trading systems that ICE blames on local Internet problems in the U.K. The systems came back online within 20 minutes of the disruptions.

ICE $148.76 -0.60% ...

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 4:02:14 PM

We're getting corrective price action in both directions now and that leaves me guessing as to what's next. My best guess is that we've got another leg down as part of a slightly larger pullback as shown on this SPX 30-min chart to perhaps just under 1523 and the uptrend line from May 24th through the May 30th low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 3:54:58 PM

To the close ... PTR $135.91 +3.66% ... juuuust above our 38.2% bullish vertical count retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 3:53:13 PM

INDU 13,597 -0.57% ... comes to WEEKLY Pivot (from underneath). Only major under its WEEKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 3:47:19 PM

Based on the looks of the bounce in SPX off its mid-day low watch for resistance just shy of 1533 which is the potential completion of a a-b-c bounce which will be followed by more selling.

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 3:44:25 PM

NDX is continuing its bounce so watch to see if resistance is found at the top of its down-channel (bull flag) near 1933.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 3:35:26 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) alert! $144.38 +1.88% ... China's "favorite son" at all-time high.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 3:33:52 PM

Google (GOOG) alert! $517.71 +2.08% ... all-time high.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 3:31:58 PM

RUT.X 847.63 -0.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 3:30:49 PM

VIX.X 13.78

VXN.X 16.63

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 3:24:27 PM

BOOM $37.12 -0.37% ... has retraced just more than 61.8% of today's range.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 3:22:53 PM

Swing trade covered call buy'em back alert ... for the remaining two (2) iShares Russell 2000 IWM Jun $86 Calls (IOW-FH) at the offer of $0.31.

IWM $84.14 -0.76%

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 3:11:45 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 3:02:13 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 3:01:46 PM

This NDX 60-min chart shows the bull flag pattern and ideally it too will get at least another minor low before rallying out of it. While it could break down directly from here (the bearish wave count) another possibility is that it will stay within the down-channel and make its way down to the uptrend line from March. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 3:00:03 PM

GlasoSmithKline (GSK) $51.98 +0.32% ... Biiiig volume build

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 2:59:20 PM

Glaxo's Avandia Associated With Heart Failure Risk - Study

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 2:55:48 PM

US Fed Discount Minutes: Most Expected Moderate Economic Expansion

DJ- U.S. Federal Reserve Bank directors voting last month expected moderate economic expansion as the housing slump abates, according to Fed discount rate minutes released Tuesday.

"Although directors noted rather weak (gross domestic product) growth in the first quarter, most expected the overall economy to resume moderate expansion over the balance of the year as the contraction of housing activity abated," the minutes said.

The records of the meeting also said several directors considered tight conditions in the labor market to reflect an upside risk to expectations that core inflation would drift lower over the rest of 2007.

Other directors viewed risks to growth and inflation to be "about evenly balanced."

"Directors generally agreed that the best course was to maintain the current stance of monetary policy for now while keeping a close watch on incoming data for areas with the greatest potential risks," the minutes said.

By May 3, all 12 regional Fed banks had agreed to keep the primary discount rate steady at 6.25%.

The central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee decided last month to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5.25%.

In a statement, the panel said economic growth slowed in the first part of this year and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. "Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters," the statement said. It added that core inflation remains somewhat elevated.

"Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures," the May 9 FOMC statement said.

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 2:49:38 PM

Slow price action here and it's looking like a bear flag since the mid-day low. I'm still hoping for another minor low before setting up a long play. Drumming my fingers while waiting...

The only one not fitting the same pattern is the NDX but the whole pullback since last Friday continues to look like a bull flag.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 2:30:35 PM

I'm showing ER Up/DnTick Vol as 14.4:15.5

Current analysis is that buyers look to ramp things into expiration, perhaps reconstitution.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 2:28:24 PM

IWM Options Montage where OI is updated thru yesterdays trade. In upper portion is fields for Up/DnTick of underlying security. Link

Those options that show decline in OI are likely net (sell to close, or buy to close). Those that show gain in OI are likely net (buy to open, sell to open).

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 2:18:26 PM

Jane! ... What's it look like on ER?

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 2:17:12 PM

Good gravy ... check out the UpTick/DnTick Vol on the IWM. 7.4 to 2.0

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 2:10:35 PM

VXN.X ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels are ... 14.83, 15.70, Piv= 17.01, 17.88, 19.19.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 2:06:14 PM

RUT.X 845.74 -1.09% ... hanging around my eyeballed' "Max Pain" tabulation from option montage work.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 2:04:32 PM

8 days. 8 days until Q2 option expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 2:03:46 PM

Yesterday's VIX.X low was WEEKLY Pivot too.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 2:03:00 PM

VIX daily lows today was yesterday's highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 1:57:36 PM

Mar'08 Crude 50-cent box Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 1:50:32 PM

OPEC MAY RETHINK EXPANSION PLAN

DJ- Cartel responsible for 40% of world's oil production capacity could rethink its expansion plans beyond 2012 unless it is given assurances from consumer nations over future demand, says Secretary-General el-Badri.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 1:49:56 PM

GM CEO DOESN'T SEE GOING PRIVATE

DJ- Wagoner tells shareholders the auto maker has no current or future plans to go private, despite the wave of consolidation taking place in the industry. He also confirms medium-duty truck unit and Allison Transmission are on the sale block.

GM $30.07 -0.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 1:48:59 PM

MORE CHINA TIGHTENING SIGNALED

DJ- China has ample room for adopting monetary-policy tools to tackle economic issues, and domestic interest rate levels are still low, says People's Bank of China adviser, comments that signal Beijing may consider tightening further.

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 1:48:52 PM

If SPX makes a new low now it will create a 5-wave move down for today and will be either the start of something more bearish or the end of the correction as I've been highlighting on the charts. In either case we should get ready for a bounce after a new low. The 5th wave down should reach only 62% of the 1st wave (based on what looks like an extended 1st wave) and that gives us a downside Fib target of 1524.29 which happens to be right at its uptrend line from March. So look for a buying opportunity there, especially since you can keep your stop relatively tight just under the trend line.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 1:48:19 PM

OPENWAVE FALLS AFTER FIRM REJECTS PARTIAL BUYOUT

DJ- Firm's shares fell as much as 19% after the software company turns down an unsolicited offer from Harbinger Capital to buy 49% of the company's shares outstanding for $335 million.

OPWV $8.63 -16.77% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 1:46:46 PM

PAULSON SEEKS CHINA CURRENCY REFORM

DJ- Treasury Secretary says China can do more on currency reform, notes he has been pressing China to increase flexibility of its exchange rate in the short run. Doing so would help the country get out of 'no man's land.'

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 1:45:01 PM

ER leading the other markets downward. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/5/2007 1:40:10 PM

Last Friday and again yesterday, I posted weekly charts showing the USD (dollar) in relationship to the JPY (yen), noting that correlation in the behavior of that chart and U.S. equities. The USD/JPY has turned down from the resistance I said I was watching on Friday. Although no technical damage has been done yet on the USD/JPY chart, I continue to watch it closely as it's so far supported the downside move in equities, and even led it a bit yesterday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 1:36:49 PM

AVAYA AGREES TO BUYOUT BY SILVER LAKE, TPG

DJ- Private-equity firms will buy the telecom-equipment company for about $8.2 billion, a 28% premium over the stock's closing price the day before reports were published about a potential transaction.

See 5/29/07 11:47:23 MM

AV $17.05 +1.91% ...

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 1:27:30 PM

I've backed out on the SPX with a wider 120-min chart to show how common this fractal pattern of a consolidation/spike down has been followed by more rally. There are several ways I could label the rally from March and I show one potential that calls for another rally leg up to finish the wave count. The Fib projection at 1566.58 is where the 1st and 5th waves are equal. This would of course get the bulls their new all-time high for SPX (and make for a bull trap?). Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 1:20:22 PM

AD volume to new daily lows. AD line very very bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 1:11:09 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 1:04:04 PM

The July DIA puts I bot last week are doing OK and I have put my stop to Breakeven.

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 1:03:50 PM

Using the SPX, here's another reason to remain skeptical about today's decline (as far as it starting something more bearish), at least until the uptrend line from March is broken. The pattern in the consolidation and decline since last Friday's high looks like a fractal (smaller but similar pattern) of the move from May 21-24. If it is in fact a fractal then we can expect another upside resolution out of this. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 1:02:04 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:52:52 PM

Here is sell the rally chart. You would have taken the US$ short at 82.32. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:51:07 PM

Gold's weekly chart needs to turn back green before I will jump on board. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:50:15 PM

Interestingly the Wilshire 5000 120 minute chart has not yet turned red. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:49:12 PM

NAZ Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:46:37 PM

SPX Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:44:53 PM

Here are the jtHMA charts for the DOW. Link

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 12:45:53 PM

So far SPX has dropped to support by its 10-dma at 1526.29 and the March 2000 closing high 1527.46. Bulls will want to see this area hold as support, certainly no lower than the uptrend line from March that's now near 1524. The short term pattern for today's move down would look best with another low after this bounce and then if it's met with bullish divergences I'd look to buy support.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:41:48 PM

Here the 120 and 60 minute charts have turned red but the daily is still green. The daily will have to turn red as well, then the 120 and 60 to turn back green before we buy this market. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:38:29 PM

According to the jtHMA charts DIS is a long here. Monthly and weekly charts are green. Daily/120 minute/60 minute all turned red telling me DIS dipped and now the 120 and 60 have turned back green telling me to buy the dip. Stop would be just under the June 1st lows so very close. Link

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 12:38:20 PM

The 10-year yield (TNX) continues to make new highs and I don't think the current leg up from the May low is quite finished. It's looking more and more likely that we'll see the TNX tag its downtrend line from January 2000, currently near 5.01%, before another meaningful correction. That pullback correction (which would be buying in the bonds) would likely mean some money rotating out of stocks and into bonds. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:33:40 PM

Bulls taking a well deserved rest today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:30:58 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

BOOM and IOW-FG are closed.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:21:48 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $135.05 +3.01% ... correct PnF with today's action at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:13:59 PM

Bullish swing trade stop alert for shares of Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $36.70 -1.55% ...

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 12:12:56 PM

SPX is now down to the 1527 level where I said it could find support. This level is based on the possibility that today's leg down is finishing the pullback from Friday's high (two legs down with the 2nd leg being 162% of the 1st). If it doesn't hold here then the uptrend line from March at 1523 is next.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:12:41 PM

Swing trade covered call establish stop alert on the two (2) ishare Russell 2000 IWM Jun $86 Calls (IOW-FH) to $85.30 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:09:43 PM

IOW-FH are now Covered

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:07:45 PM

Swing trade covered call buy'em back alert ... buy back the two (2) IOW-FG at the offer of $0.64.

IWM $84.16 -0.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:05:33 PM

VIX.X 14.00

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 12:04:33 PM

BIIIIG volume spike in IWM last 15-minutes.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:00:45 PM

3 wins today is enough for me.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:00:22 PM

Now that is the kind of trade I like.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 12:00:05 PM

Oh just hit target

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:59:52 AM

If triggered short at 848.80 my target will be the 13 ticks at 847.50

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:58:42 AM

If triggered stop will be 850.20.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:58:22 AM

Dateline WSJ - Former White House aide I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby has been sentenced to 2 1/2 years in prison for perjury and obstruction of justice in the CIA leak case.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:58:02 AM

I am going to take another short at 848.80.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:57:27 AM

The TRIN is talking today. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:52:09 AM

It has been a day of near misses and "almosts." Even if you get on the right side you still have to work the trade and your profits do not come easily.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:50:41 AM

Too funny!

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:50:13 AM

U know I really thought my stop should be at 850.10 and if I had I would still be in this trade.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:49:32 AM

And stopped at 850.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:49:11 AM

One way or the other I will make a profit.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 11:48:49 AM

Sector Glance: China ADRs ... AP Story Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:48:45 AM

I am lowering my stop to 850 locking in 3 ticks.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:48:25 AM

Here you have to make a decision to take what you have or take a chance and wait for the extra 2 ticks.

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 11:47:57 AM

A common pattern in this market has been a marginal new low after a bounce which has more often than not been a bear trap. Be careful of the same thing setting up here. Keep an eye on the short term charts if it turns back up and leaves a bullish divergence. Otherwise the short term trend is now down.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:47:31 AM

Got to a low of 849.20.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 11:47:28 AM

Burkle Expresses Interest in Dow Jones

AP Story Link

DJ $60.84 +1.13%

NWS $24.17 +0.29% ...

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:46:53 AM

stop to b/e

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 11:45:29 AM

CEO has achieved/exceeded its bullish vertical count of $99.00.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:45:06 AM

Lowering stop to 851.20

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 11:44:45 AM

SPX bounced off its uptrend line from May 24th this morning (ignoring the spike down on May 30th) and is now testing it again. Any further drop will break the uptrend line and this morning's low which will obviously be more bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 11:43:13 AM

PTR $135.88 +3.64% ...

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:42:46 AM

Once this trade moves into profit I will lower the stop.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:41:27 AM

Target is once again 13 ticks so 849.00.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:40:39 AM

Triggered short at 850.30 and I will put a stop at 851.60.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 11:40:18 AM

Swing trade bullish call alert for one (1) of the PetroChina PTR Sep $145 Calls (PTR-II) at the offer of $4.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 11:38:57 AM

Holy cr... CNOOC Ltd (CEO) $102.92 +4.07% ...

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:38:45 AM

Just below the swing low made at 11:32.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:38:20 AM

I will go short ER at 850.30.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 11:29:34 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell against other major currencies Tuesday, touching a three-week low against the euro as traders awaited central bank meetings in the eurozone and the U.K.

The dollar trimmed some of its losses after a report showed the nonmanufacturing side of the U.S. economy grew last month at the fastest pace in a year. Earlier, Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke said he anticipates "moderate" growth in coming months.

The service-sector Institute for Supply Management number indicated "the recent strength in corporate profitability," said Kathy Lien, chief strategist at DailyFX.com. "Not only has the weakness of the U.S. dollar been behind the record highs in the [Dow Jones Industrial Average], but it has also brought significant benefits to both the manufacturing and service sectors."

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 11:27:02 AM

After yesterday's close I had mentioned that an immediate decline this morning would actually be potentially bullish. This was based on not getting an ending pattern (5-wave move) to the upside from yesterday morning's low. With just a 3-wave bounce it tells me the move down this morning should be the completion of the 2-day consolidation as shown on this RUT 15-min chart: Link

The RUT should head higher from here and now has an upside Fib target of 858.44 for equality in the 1st and 5th waves in the move up from May 24th. If it drops a little lower first then watch for gap close at 846.29.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 11:13:51 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 11:02:05 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... check out VXN.X too.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 10:57:20 AM

VIX.X ... moves higher on call selling/put buying.

VIX.X ... moves lower on call buying/put selling.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 10:56:26 AM

Probably a good idea Jane ... what most NAKED call traders have to do.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 10:54:29 AM

On a day like today to take what you can.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 10:53:48 AM

RUT.X nor IWM got a trade at WEEKLY Pivots.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 10:53:45 AM

And there you go. 13 ticks

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 10:53:19 AM

VIX.X ... 30-minute interval chart with MONTHLY Pivot retracement and QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... VIX.X stopped dead at 13.90 and that overlap. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 10:51:44 AM

13 Ticks is about right for an ER scalp.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 10:51:00 AM

My target is 852

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 10:49:37 AM

Actually I am going to go long here at 850.70 and put at stop at 849.80

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 10:47:44 AM

I will take ER long at 851.6

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 10:43:46 AM

The parallel up-channel for the DOW since the March low shows how well it's been trading inside the upper half of the channel. The mid line of this channel is currently near 13580. Until that level is broken this remains bullish. It takes a break of the 13424 low on May 24th to say the rally leg is finished. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 10:41:17 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The nonmanufacturing side of the U.S. economy grew at the best pace in a year in May, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday.

The ISM nonmanufacturing index rose to 59.7% from 56% in April. It's the highest since April 2006.

"This further reinforces that the trough in business sentiment, and likely peak of the inventory downdraft, was in the first quarter, said Mike Englund, chief economist for Action Economics.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a pullback to about 55%

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 10:40:07 AM

IWM $84.40 -0.45% ... session low has been $84.20. (see 10:10:43) QCharts' DAILY S2 $84.11.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 10:39:23 AM

AD line made a low of -1491 this morning. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 10:38:35 AM

I guess you don't have to look at the internals to know who has the ball this morning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 10:38:22 AM

Notable DNTick on the IWM June $85 Puts

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 10:19:04 AM

A bearish thing I see for the market is what's happening in the semis. It had bounced off support near 36 but is finding resistance at its downtrend line from January 2004. Stochastics (not shown on this chart) has turned back down and MACD stayed negative during the recent bounce. Any drop back below the recent low at 35.89 would be a clear sell signal. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 10:10:43 AM

IWM $84.46 -0.38% ... IF we can get a decline to $84.15, let's buy back/close out the June $85 Calls (IOW-FG) we sold on 5/31/07.

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 10:05:49 AM

The RUT has dropped down to the bottom of what could be a bulls flag consolidation from Friday morning's high. This morning's leg down still holds the possibility that it's the leg that is finishing the consolidation and will set up another rally leg so be careful about chasing this lower.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 10:02:14 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:59:33 AM

Shanghai Bullish % (BPSH) at this Link ... "Late Day Rebound" (see 09:41:04) a bit surprising to me. I was thinking Wednesday was rebound day.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/5/2007 9:55:48 AM

In other words, welcome the higher volatility, but it's not the end of the world until it actually is. 20 day moving averages is the line in the sand short term.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/5/2007 9:54:32 AM

This will all end badly one day, but new traders should know that the greatest bull market of all time in the 90's was built on Fed fund rate between 5.25 and 5.5% AND a housing recession.

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 9:41:50 AM

SPX wasted no time getting down to its first potential support area near 1532. If it doesn't hold then 1527-1528 should be next.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:41:41 AM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $33.91 +0.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:41:04 AM

Chinese Stocks Rebound in Late-Day Rally

AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:37:11 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $49.86 -0.97% Link ... $0.50-box to match futures.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:35:39 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $136.30 +3.96% ... only "news" I see is a review of Warren Buffett's Top 10 High-Yielding Stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:31:52 AM

PetroChina (PTR) alert! $136.10 +3.81% ... grrrr...

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:31:09 AM

Morgan Stanley Placing 700,000 Millicom Shares - Source

DJ- Morgan Stanley Tuesday began placing 700,000 shares of Luxemburg-based Millicom International Cellular SA (MICC), according to a person familiar with the transaction.

The shares are being placed on a bookbuild basis at between 605 Swedish kronor ($87.6) and SEK610 per share, the person added, without being able to comment on the identity of the vendor.

At 1324 GMT, Millicom shares in Stockholm were down 2.6% at SEK611, in a slightly lower overall market.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:29:21 AM

BOJ's Fukui: Hedge Funds Help Improve Market Efficiency

DJ- Japan's economy is expanding moderately and is expected to continue to grow slightly above trend in 2008, Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said Tuesday.

Fukui was making prepared remarks to the International Monetary Conference in Cape Town, South Africa.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:25:38 AM

Bernanke: Market Discipline Key To Hedge Fund Regulation

DJ- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that the current "benign" risk environment in global financial markets might not persist forever, which could prove problematic should some disruptive event occur.

There is currently a "good bit of confidence" in a "benign" global macroeconomic environment, Bernanke said via satellite in response to questions following a speech to the International Monetary Conference in Cape Town, South Africa.

Along with significant amounts of global savings, that benign risk environment has helped keep long-term interest rates relatively low, Bernanke said.

The current pricing of risk, which Bernanke described as "quite low," does raise concerns should the current benign environment be interrupted, he said. Bernanke encouraged financial market participants to make sure that risk is accounted for appropriately.

Jeff Bailey : 6/5/2007 9:17:33 AM

Murdoch calls Dow Jones meeting "constructive"

MarketWatch Story Link

No additional meeting date at this time.

DJ $60.16 ... quiet pre-market.

Keene Little : 6/5/2007 9:15:44 AM

Looks like we'll start the day with a little gap down. SPX 1532 should be support, possibly as low as 1527, if this pullback is going to lead to more highs. If the selling takes out those levels then the last line of defense is the uptrend line from March near 1523. I'll be watching the form of the decline to help determine whether it's just another corrective pullback or the start of something more significant.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 9:07:01 AM

I lost my internet connection for a while yesterday and was not able to follow the ER short I posted. I had a stop posted, which was hit but was not able to make a commentary about it.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 9:03:42 AM

The US$ is the one of the main reasons I have become bullish on gold again. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 9:02:23 AM

Gold has certainly given us a very clear picture of its support and the higher high it made of Friday tells me the trendline is now up. I'm not a buyer just yet but soon. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 8:55:58 AM

YM is now testing its PDL.

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 8:55:37 AM

The COMPX's chart is getting almost unreadable. I do see support and a possible upward trendline that could be support as well but other than that I don't see a lot that makes much sense. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 8:47:41 AM

Ditto for the DOW. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 8:47:02 AM

Isn't it interesting how the trendline that supported the SPX before the Feb 27th selloff is now supporting it again. This chart also shows that the SPX needs to get back to the lower trendline and the 20EMA before it can make another run at new yearly highs. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 8:40:19 AM

OH weee look at the DAX. Now is this telling us we are in for a bearish day or just a bearish open.

Gold and US $ are in sync and it may be getting real close to get long Gold again. Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 8:35:38 AM

Overnight the markets were able to make a higher high around 3:00 EDT but are now making lower lows, next stop PDLs? I still have my DIA puts so my bias is down today. :) Link

Jane Fox : 6/5/2007 8:27:23 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Fed chief Ben Bernanke was fairly upbeat about the outlook for the U.S. economy, saying he expects moderate growth in coming months."On average, over coming quarters, we expect the economy to advance at a moderate pace, close to or slightly below the economy's trend rate of expansion," Bernanke said in remarks prepared for delivery to a bankers' conference in Cape Town, South Africa.Economists generally agree the economy's trend rate of growth is around a 3% real gross domestic product annualized rate. Bernanke said some of the factors that slowed the economy to a crawl in the first quarter "seem likely to be at least partially reversed in the near term."

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