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OI Technical Staff : 6/8/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 6:43:21 PM

Parting quote of the day ... "Bears, Paris Hilton hauled back to the pokey."

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 6:26:10 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 6:21:42 PM

For those that trade Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $35.50 +2.24% from the short side, understand potential implications from 06:15:59.

Some chatter that BOOM isn't long for public company.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 6:15:59 PM


DJ- Lehman Brothers raises $3.3 billion for its Merchant Banking Partners IV fund, which will buy stakes in small- and mid-cap companies. The total is almost triple the $1.2 billion raised in its Partners III fund, which is now fully invested.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 6:12:06 PM

CBOE's Most Active Call/Put Options at this Link

GM Jun $30 C were heaviest OI (76,692) going into today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 6:04:54 PM

Check your account ... If trading Chicago Merc (CME) $570.00 +5.65% ... on late session ticks to $582.63.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 6:02:51 PM

Dow Jones Corp. Bond Index 195.82, yield 6.01%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 6:01:38 PM

DJ- Latin America Stock Funds See $810M In Inflows

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 4:18:10 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/8/2007 4:11:54 PM

I'll get the rest of the charts updated over the weekend and posted Sunday night but this updated SPX 120-min chart shows the progress so far on the expected big bounce into opex week. Looking for a brief pullback Monday/Tuesday followed by another leg up. Have a great weekend. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 3:50:52 PM

As expected, the SPY has now reclaimed its 5/11/07 "doji" close. Bulls that rounded back to full at $147, can bring it back to 1/2 positions here. Can always get back on board the new high.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 3:42:28 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in CAL.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 3:41:47 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/3 position (100 shares for $10k=full) in shares of Continental Airlines (CAL) $36.42 here. Stop goes $35.80, target $39.00.

Keene Little : 6/8/2007 3:24:38 PM

Nice pop higher after only a brief pullback. That changes the pattern of today's bounce to one that looks more impulsive which means we should see another minor consolidation, probably into the close now, followed by another leg higher on Monday. That would then set up a correction of today's rally to be followed by another rally leg into next week. So far so good on the opex rally expectations. Link

Keene Little : 6/8/2007 2:29:30 PM

As expected I see we got a nice rally out of the sideways consolidation. This SPX 5-min chart shows the setup for the leg up and now after hitting the Fib projection at 1502.12 for two equal legs up it may have completed the first larger degree wave-A. If so we should get a pullback and then a continuation higher next week. Caution here as the pullback could take it right back down to the 1494 area. If it instead pushes higher first then watch the next Fib projection at 1507.58. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/8/2007 2:29:26 PM

Semis will be the hottest sector going forward. Newbie tech traders are stuck in the old 18 month bear cycle.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/8/2007 2:28:17 PM

SMH up 2.8%. I had a feleing 35.65 was it. yesterday was a double down the money on semis.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 2:10:41 PM

Did you notice on the SS I posted this morning that MCD 60 minute was green and all we needed was for the 120 minute to turn green which it just did.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 2:09:17 PM

MCD is giving us a buy here. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 2:05:49 PM

This morning I talked about a long CVS position when it was trading at around 37.20. CVS is now $38.00

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 2:02:56 PM

I'm off again ... IT making progress, but still not there.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 2:01:09 PM

^vix 15.70 Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 1:59:41 PM

Swing trade put close out alert ... for the Imergent IIG Jul $22.50 Puts (IIG-SX) at the bid of $1.60.

IIG $24.19

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 1:53:15 PM

Swing trade sell covered call alert ... for one (1) of the General Motors GM July $32.50 Calls (GM-FZ) at the bid of $1.10.

GM $30.81

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:47:37 PM

Waiting for the 120/60 minute charts to turn green and I will buy some DIA calls. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:37:22 PM

Target hit.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:37:14 PM

Really thought of putting that target at 837.40 to begin with.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:49:00 PM

Lowering target to 837.40.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:35:52 PM

Raising my stop to 835.80 4 ticks at risk.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:31:00 PM

Raising my stop to 835.40.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:30:40 PM


Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:30:17 PM

My target is 13 ticks.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:29:46 PM

There is a swing low at 834.40 so my stop will be 834.30 until I can move it up.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:28:51 PM

I am long ER at 836.20 my stop is at 834.40.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:19:25 PM

Dow has closed below its upward trendline as well. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:18:05 PM

Look at the number of touches the SPX upward trendline. Notice also how it has closed below this line. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:15:14 PM

Here is the DAX cash index. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:13:21 PM

A close below this trendline will tell me this correction may turn into more than just a correction.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:13:36 PM

Notice the huge MACD divergence on the DAX chart as well.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:11:12 PM

The upward trendline on the DAX futures chart is just a tad amazing. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 1:09:37 PM

I will go long ER at 836.20 with at stop at 834.20.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 12:51:32 PM

Oil cannot seem to hold a break above $67.00/BL Link

Keene Little : 6/8/2007 12:40:37 PM

Checking in to see what's happening. After this morning's spike up off the bottom the techs and small caps are holding up fairly well. The DOW and SPX are less enthusiastic (and suffered more damaged this week). But so far it looks like we should get another leg up this afternoon. Watch for the formation of a sideways triangle and then another leg up out of it. Just be careful of the chop on a Friday afternoon.

The US dollar's pullback appears to be over already and the metals are getting crushed this morning. This fits for the start of a 3rd wave down for the metals and the drop should have a lot further to go.

I'll check in again later.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 12:23:22 PM

I need to shut down for about an hour. IT is here and needs me out of the way.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 12:14:29 PM

Seeing some chatter that today's trade figures have economists contemplating revisions to GDP on the upside. Some see April-June moving up from 2.5% annualized to 4.0%.

Might "make sense" with the steepening of the yield curve.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 12:09:48 PM

Bulls do not have field position so the bears could easily take that ball back again. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 12:09:20 PM

General Motors (GM) $30.45 +2.59% ... finding a nice little bid today.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 12:08:47 PM

The bulls have the ball back again today but the AD line will tell us if they have field position. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 12:07:23 PM

I added a tear to that sad face.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 12:07:11 PM

Great big ; ( Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 12:05:00 PM

The 50EMA has been resistance and it looks like the $ will close above this very important MA so that is another nail in the coffin for Gold. :( Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 12:03:12 PM

That reminds me ... Apple Computer (AAPL) $123.19 -0.70% Link ... has achieved its bullish vertical count of $123.00. Bulls should lock in some gains in my opinion.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 11:47:46 AM

Here is the Smith Open number charts. I think I will put a moratorium on posting these charts for I have found them not too helpful with the quick scalp type of trading that I do and are better suited if you trade off the 5 minute or higher charts. Since I use a tick chart and take 13 tick scalps I have found them not too helpful to me. I will continue to post them if anyone would like me to but if not then I will put this project aside.

You have to always be looking for different things to help you trade, some are helpful and some are more interesting than helpful. I put the Smith Open number system into the category of interesting and not too helpful. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 11:32:02 AM

Sector Status Changes ... Yesterday's action had RESTaurants sector bullish % reversing back lower to "bear alert" from "bull confirmed" at 68% bullish. It would currently take a reading of 32% for the sector to achieve "bear confirmed" status.

WASTe Management also reversed back lower to "bear alert" from "bull confirmed" at 64%. It would currently take a 44% measure for this sector to achieve "bear confirmed" status.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 11:27:12 AM

The spike that we saw yesterday could have been why the 120/60 charts have turned back green but this is a nice entry (actually the entry was yesterday but I didn't have this SS ready). The stop is just under the lows made on June 6th at 37.20. I would put the stop at 36.95 so risking about $1.00. My target will be $39.00. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 11:23:37 AM

Here is my list of stocks pulled from the DOW and OEX that have nice up trends, the monthly and weekly are green but the daily/120 minute/60 minute are red. The one stock that has given us a "buy the dip" long signal is CVS because its daily is still red but the 120/60 minute have turned back green. I will take a look at the daily CVS chart next. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 11:21:59 AM

I am stopped on my short from 834.80 at 836.40

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 11:15:34 AM

30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX.X) Link up 5.9 bp at 5.262% ... and "matches" current Fed funds rate of 5.25%.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 11:14:12 AM

lowering my stop to 836.40.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 11:12:24 AM

I am now short at 834.80.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 11:11:06 AM

If you cannot take a $200/contract loss then my trades are not for you.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 11:10:12 AM

Sometimes I will be stopped at a full loss but that is rare.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 11:10:04 AM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Link currently up 2 points, or 0.15% at 1,493.

Major economic report today showed the U.S. trade deficit falling to $-58.5 billion, which was well below consensus of $-63.5 billion. Just north of the border, Canada's trade surplus rose to $5.8 billion, also better than economists' survey of $4.9 billion.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 11:09:46 AM

If triggered I will put a stop at 836.80 until it moves into profit and then I will lower the stop. Since I move the stop aggressively I have no problem with a 2 pt stop and a 1.3 pt target.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 11:07:12 AM

I have compiled a list of candidates that are setting up a buy the dip. This is very good place to try some longs because the stops are very clear.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 11:07:03 AM

I will be going short ER at 834.80

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 10:58:04 AM

I suspect the SPX will retrace to at least the magenta 20EMA and the upward trendline. At that point you should be watching very closely because if it closes above the 20EMA and this trendline then there is a very good chance it will retest yearly highs. If it cannot close above the 20 then there is a very good chance it will retest the 50 again. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 11:05:06 AM

European Markets:

European bourses stabilize as investors contemplated recent rate hikes.

The FTSE-100 ($FTSE) Link is up 4 points, or 0.07% at 6,509, while Germany's DAX ($DAX) Link is up 7 points, or 0.10% at 7,626. France's CAC-40 ($CAC) Link is gaining 2 points at 5,892.

Economic news has Germany's trade balance showing a surplus of $15.0 billion, which was inline with economists' survey. France's trade balance showed a deficit of $2.8 billion, which was greater than the $2.0 billion consensus.

Great Britian's industrial production rose 0.3% m/m, while the country's manufacturing production gained 0.3% m/m. Both figures slightly above respective consensus of $0.2%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2007 10:36:13 AM

Asian Markets:

Asian markets were mostly lower with the Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) Link bucking the overnight trend with a 22 point, or +0.57% advance to close at 3,913.

The Hang Seng ($HSI) Link fell 291 points, or 1.40% to 20,510.

Japan's Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link slid 274 points, or -1.52% to finish the week at 17,779.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/8/2007 10:04:24 AM

Bulls know what they need to defend at all cost. COMP 2535 and NDX 1877.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/8/2007 10:03:10 AM

If you are short, you are in a very crowded field. ISEE 74 close yesterday and one -1900 ADVD DEC, one -2000 and a -2800 yesterday, spells short covering. I cannot ever recall three -2000 days that have been followed by more selling. Risk is now to the upside. Will we get Aramageddon, as many are predicting (or have predicted for a year)?

Marc Eckelberry : 6/8/2007 9:58:34 AM

Obvioulsy, 50 dmas are the line in the sand. COMP tested as well as SPX.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/8/2007 9:54:53 AM

My target of NDX 1877 was hit and they bought it.(NQ 1903 or so). The low was 1876.52...See my post yesterday. 10 weekly and 50 dma. Yields have topped out and were way out of line with reality. As posted earlier as well, the semis found solid support yesterday at 50% 2007 (35.65).

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 9:28:09 AM

So much for that move out of the trading range. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 9:25:16 AM

Goldbugs DO NOT like this move in the $. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 9:23:58 AM

YM is testing its ON high. Link

Linda Piazza : 6/8/2007 9:21:53 AM

I'm dropping in this morning to note that both the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY charts show bounces this morning, with the USD/JPY already testing the 10-sma and a little above that again. The USD/JPY bounce didn't last long yesterday, but it so far appears stronger today. The significance of this is that our equities have tended to trade in the direction of the USD/JPY since last summer's bounce, with both swooning in February and recovering together. On Friday, June 1, I began posting charts showing that the USD/JPY was facing significant resistance, and that it appeared time either for a downturn, perhaps bringing equities down, too, or a push up through that significant resistance, perhaps supporting an equity bounce. That resistance is at the year's high at 122.15, and the USD/JPY came within a few cents of that number before turning down last Friday. The USD/JPY is at 121.71 as I type.

These inter-market relationships are complex, and I don't pretend to be an economist who understands all the complexities. Some question whether the yen carry trade caused the China swoon and the subsequent swoon in our equities both in February and now, or whether it was the other way around. If they can't figure it out, I certainly can't. However, because these relationships are complex, I must warn that the relationship of equities to a move in currencies, yields or metals may shift, as it has done occasionally with yields. So, don't use this bounce in the USD/JPY today as a definitive sign that equities will bounce or hold any bounce that is begun, but do watch the currency action, if you can, to see whether or not it corroborates a trade you may be considering, either bearish or bullish. If you can't chart it, you can at least follow the actual number by watching the scrawl above the screen on CNBC. It's covered there under the symbol "yen." Be particularly careful if you're long the equity bounce as the 122-122.15 region is approached again.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 9:15:11 AM

I love the way that blue trendline from pre Feb 27th was able to become support again.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 9:13:54 AM

EVery major equity index is now testing its 50EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 9:11:44 AM

Yesterday I made the observation that the RUT and NAZ had more downside potential but I was seeing support on the S&P and DOW charts. I was wondering if the S&P/DOW would hold up the RUT/NAZ or the RUT/NAZ would be able to bring exert enough pressure to bring the S&P/DOW down. I certainly got my answer. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 9:09:53 AM

Love the way the MACD/RSI gave us a heads up to this move. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 9:03:43 AM

Crude breaks its PDL. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 9:02:46 AM

Gold and the US$ dollar are in sync this morning and a great big sad face from yours truly. I am waiting for the next big move in gold and it has just not appeared yet.

I see Crude is breaking to new ON lows as I type.

The DAX is supporting the other indexes with the break of its PDL. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 8:56:46 AM

All equity markets broke their PDLs overnight but that was not surprising because they all closed very near their lows. These indexes may break the PDLs intraday but I don't think the move will have any follow through. Keep your eye on the internals for they have been very helpful. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 8:50:51 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 6.2% in April to $58.5 billion as exports set a monthly record, the Commerce Department said Friday.

This was the biggest percentage improvement in the trade gap since last October.

Reflecting a growing global economy, exports increased 0.2% to a record $129.5 billion.

A big decline in consumer goods and autos and auto parts helped push down imports by 1.9% to $188.0 billion.

Economists expected the April trade deficit to narrow slightly to $63.5 billion, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. The deficit in March was revised down slightly to $62.4 billion from the initial estimate of $63.9 billion.

The figures are not adjusted for price changes. The report portends a boost to gross domestic product for the second quarter after the economy slowed to a crawl in the first quarter.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 8:48:51 AM

SPX did a nice tag of the 50EMA yesterday and I suspect we will see a little retracement today and into next week. This is the time to bring out old Fibonacci to see how much of a retracement the SPX will indeed be able to muster.

Of course the reallllyyy big question is do the bulls have the gun powder to bring this market back to new yearly highs or is this the start of something much more bearish.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 8:43:49 AM

Compare the chart of the long bond to the SPX and you see the MACD here was telling the bulls they needed to beware. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 8:42:35 AM

Here is a daily chart of the 30yr Treasury Bond (called the long bond) and it is certainly bearish but what I like about this chart is how the MACD confirmed each and every swing low/high. Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2007 8:39:01 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The forces behind Thursday's global bonds rout are likely to drive Treasury prices still lower and yields higher, with some analysts expecting the 10-year benchmark yield to overtake the 5.25% level of the feds fund rate soon.

The benchmark 10-year yield (early Thursday pierced the 5% level for the first time since August, joining in a global bonds sell-off sparked by foreign rate hikes. Heavy sell-offs drive yields higher, given that prices and yields move inversely.

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