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Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 11:44:45 PM

2007 Russell Reconstitution ... Preliminary Additions/Deletions at this Link

Today's "additions" list for the Russell 3000 shows that 277 companies will move into the broad-market index-more than last year's 237 additions but far less than the 10-year average of 405. About one-third of this year's additions are in two sectors: financial services (57) and health care (48). Alternatively, only seven stocks in the consumer staples sector will flow into the index this year.

Among the total of 12 sectors, slight changes are expected in terms of weighting within the index. The energy services sector likely will increase from 3.9% at this point last year to 4.6%, while the health care sector (despite the number of additions) likely will decline in weighting from 12.1% to 11.9%. Financial services (22.4%) and consumer discretionary (13.4%) will remain the largest sectors.

"Turnover is always low in the broad-market Russell 3000, and it is expected to be similar to prior years at between 2% and 2.5% this year," said Lori Richards, client service director for Russell indexes. "Turnover in more specific capitalization segments, such as the small-cap Russell 2000. Index, is expected to be lower this year as well given the low market volatility between large and small cap stocks. This is also due, in large part, to our rules-based methodology that adds IPOs on a quarterly basis and several other recent enhancements such as percentile banding."

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 11:36:32 PM

Currencies, US Indexes, Asian Indexes and European Indexes table at this Link

When I look at the week-to-week comparisons, then the "longer-term" 06/11/07 to 3/30/07, I have a tough time observing any major change, or impact from currencies. US$/Yuan -0.97% is only currency that sticks out on 6/11-3/30 time observation. Euro/US$ getting there at just +0.03%.

Can see the Shanghai's -15.34% relative to the trending lower US$/Yuan, and recent +0.10% in the US$/Yuan brings an +8.86% in the Shanghai.

Last week, its the Euro/US$, where the US$ strengthens notably against the euro, or euro weak against the US$, which then sees DAX and CAC-40 pace equity decline, perhaps drag US Indexes lower.

Now, we've seen the US$ rise with expectations of Fed monetary policy tightening.

Tonight's Market Wrap focuses on the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) and the S&P Regional Banks Index ($BIX.X).

OI Technical Staff : 6/11/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Keene Little : 6/11/2007 8:13:05 PM

I'll be crossing into Canada Monday night and therefore will be out of touch until I reach my destination Tuesday afternoon. In the meantime there hasn't been much of a change from Sunday night's charts. But by pushing a little higher on Monday there are a couple of different possibilities. The one that doesn't change is the bullish one--the bounce could keep going and offer very few pullbacks (typical).

One of the bearish possibilities, not shown, is that it will continue to have a sharp upward move that completes earlier than I depicted on the charts (Thursday/Friday). Stay aware of the possibility for a another sell off to begin without notice. But for now I'm going to assume that we'll see a pullback before another rally leg higher and that's what I'm depicting.

The RUT is the only one that I show the possibility that we'll see a small ascending wedge develop for the current bounce. I posted the SPX 60-min chart just as the market closed and here are the other three:
DOW: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 7:28:54 PM

NYMEX Oil Futures: NYMEX Crude Rallies After Friday Decline

DJ- Crude oil futures rallied more than $1 Monday, ending just under $66.00 a barrel, as traders bought back previously oversold positions and gasoline futures gained.

There was no specific news behind the rally, although traders said indications from Saudi Arabia that it would keep export volumes to Europe and Asia steady may have given prices an initial boost.

"The Saudi decision is not a surprise but it may be a reason to jump back into the market after Friday's big sell-off," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "People realize that Friday's sell-off was overdone and you have some bargain hunting coming in."

The nearby July crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which lost more than $2 Friday, gained $1.21 to end at $65.97 a barrel.

The July Brent contract on ICE Futures rose 96 cents to $69.56 a barrel.

July reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 2.42 cents to $2.1513 a gallon.

July heating oil ended 3.03 cents higher at $1.9291 a gallon.

The gain in petroleum products futures came despite expectations of rising inventories in weekly data due Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect gasoline stocks to rise by an average of 2 million barrels and distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, to increase by an average of 1.5 million barrels.

State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., or Aramco, has informed Japanese and South Korean lifters of Saudi oil to expect a cut of 9.5% to 10% in supply in July, lifters said Monday. Other Asian and European customers have been informed by Aramco to expect the same volume of crude in July as in recent months, leaving current supply curbs and output unchanged.

The move reinforced a market view that Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which agreed to cut production earlier this year, are satisfied with the current supply-demand picture and are not keen on raising production.

Iran's oil minister, Kazem Vaziri Hamaneh, said OPEC has no immediate plans to release more oil into the market ahead of its next policy meeting in September.

"Now there is sufficient crude oil in the market, there is no shortage of crude oil," Vaziri Hamaneh said on the sidelines of a conference in Malaysia.

Globally, commercial oil inventories, including in the U.S. "are in a very high level," he said.

OPEC members "don't think the high price of oil is due to anything they do," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago. "They blame it on (tight) refining capacity. As long as they have that view, they're not going to be in a hurry to raise production."

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 7:22:26 PM

3 pages of stocks that go ex-dividend on June 13.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 7:20:00 PM

DJ- 12 Foreign Hostages Released In Souther Nigeria - Official

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 5:00:23 PM

One 2 million share block crossed in the IWM $83.03.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 4:57:29 PM

Two 1 million share blocks crossed in the IWM $82.87.

Still no preliminary list of Russell additions/deletions at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 4:51:46 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 4:51:42 PM

Standard Pacific: Cancellation Rate For First 2 Mos of 2Q +28% Vs. +35%

SPF $19.88 -1.82% ...

Cites continued weakness in FLA, AZ. CA order activity +13%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 4:28:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 4:16:45 PM

CME deal to buy CBOT gets US antitrust approval

Reuters Story Link

CME $149.19 +2.44% ...

BOT $201.54 +1.53% Link ...

ICE $149.19 +2.44% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 4:12:42 PM

Brazil Real Firms Despite Central Bank Change In Forex Rules

DJ- Brazil's real gained strength against the dollar in intraday trading Monday amid firm dollar inflows and despite the announcement of central bank measures to reduce banking sector exposure to foreign exchange risk.

As of 1640 GMT, the real was trading at BRL1.945 per dollar after ending at BRL1.960 per dollar Friday on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange.

Traders noted the market were shrugging off measures announced by the central bank late Friday to reduce banks' forex exposure to 30% of assets from 60% previously.

The real's gain came as investors continued to plow money into local investments following a reduction of the country's reference Selic interest rate by a half a percentage point last week.

Brazil also continued to receive strong trade inflows, posting a $746 million foreign trade surplus for the June 4-10 period.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 4:10:26 PM

EIA: US Retail Gasoline -8.1c In Week To $3.076/Gallon

Keene Little : 6/11/2007 4:02:43 PM

Let's try it again: Link

Keene Little : 6/11/2007 3:54:26 PM

Got one uploaded--here's the SPX-60-min: Link

Keene Little : 6/11/2007 3:51:03 PM

Watching and waiting for the pullback so that we can get some clues as to what to expect to the upsdie next. It's possible we'll only get shallow pullbacks (that's been a very typical pattern so I'm watching for that possibility as well. I was going to send an updated SPX chart but for some reason my wireless internet connection is having trouble uploading charts to the site so I'll get charts updated later when I get a better connection.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 3:30:52 PM

CME Feb'08 and May'08 Housing Futures Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 3:11:57 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 3:03:32 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 2:59:59 PM

CME Nov'07 Housing Futures Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 2:54:27 PM

CME Aug'07 Housing Futures Table at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/11/2007 2:42:48 PM

NQ 1933 is support.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 2:42:21 PM

Lehman Bros. (LEH) $75.57 +1.86% ... has been either side of its trending higher 200-day SMA in recent weeks.

Earnings tomorrow morning. Consensus is $1.86.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/11/2007 2:40:41 PM

SPX May 30 low of 1510 is what bulls want to keep. I warned traders not to short the close on Thursday. You rarely if ever get 3 consecutive -2000 advdec days on NYSE and not rally. The question is now for how long and how strong.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 2:40:19 PM

Cancel that short. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/11/2007 2:38:42 PM

QQQQ 47 pin

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 2:38:40 PM

I am going to try another short at 842.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 2:38:08 PM

21-day SMA's ... COMPX, NDX and RUT.X only majors above their 21-day SMA.

NYA.X 9,866.64 +0.41% ... right at its 21-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 2:27:06 PM

GM's 150-day SMA at $31.61.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 2:26:07 PM

200-day SMA alert! ... GM $31.76 +2.45% ...

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 2:15:59 PM

You know when I said once ER reaches 843 lower the stop to 844.60 then I lowered it to 844.60 even though ER only reached 843.10. Well if I had not lowered the stop and left it at 845.20 we would still be short. Sometimes you are windshield and sometimes the bug.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 2:08:30 PM

Stopped at 844.60

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 2:04:16 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link ... GM-GZ serving as a good example of how despite rise in equity price, out-the-money calls not performing so well as volatility (VIX.X) declines.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 2:00:55 PM

Made a low of 843.10 so lower stop to 844.60.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 1:59:07 PM

Once we get to 843 the stop will be 844.60.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 1:58:46 PM

Lower the stop to 845.20 not much but some.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 1:56:19 PM

Looking for the 13 ticks at 842.50

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 1:55:55 PM

Short from 843.80 and stop is 845.60.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 1:54:45 PM

IBM TO BUY TELELOGIC FOR $745M

DJ- International Business Machines will pay $745 million to buy software provider Telelogic AB, which is traded on the Nordic Exchange, at a price of 21 Swedish Kronor a share. Telelogic's board has backed the IBM offer.

IBM $103.53 +0.44% ...

TGIAF $3.20 +10.3% ...

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 1:42:02 PM

Stop will be 845.60 until I can lower it.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 1:41:04 PM

Internals are still bullish but these reversals can be quick and lucrative.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 1:42:20 PM

I will try a short at 843.80 looking for a quick reversal play.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 1:33:40 PM

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,915.11 +0.46% Link ... 20-point box chart needs trade at 1,940 to reverse back up to X.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 1:31:01 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,514.71 +0.46% Link ... needs a trade at 1,520 to get 3-box reversal back up to X.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 1:27:47 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 13,464 +0.29% Link ... after giving a double bottom sell signal at 13,400, gets a 3-box reversal higher.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 1:27:22 PM

You can't get the internals much more bullish than this. Well actually you can; the AD line could be above +1000 and it is only at +464 now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 1:25:17 PM

01:15 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 1:16:53 PM

01:15 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 1:13:22 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) ... 30-minute interval chart with updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement, and "wave counts" at this Link

Since RUT.X did violate upward trend, wave discipline has me LOWERING #3 and #5 to bullish resistance.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 1:05:40 PM

WE have buy signals on DOW, SPX, NAZ and the DAX. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 12:58:19 PM

Russell annual reconstitution will be announced after today's close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 12:57:29 PM

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) $83.18 +0.39% ... probes its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 12:57:25 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 837.74 +0.05% Link ... gets a trade at Monthly Pivot. Should kick off a bull wave above WEEKLY Pivot with initial count to 852.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 12:53:20 PM

COURT REJECTS ZOLTEK PATENT APPEAL

DJ- U.S. Supreme Court rejects an appeal from Zoltek in its lawsuit against the federal government over alleged carbon-fiber-sheet patent violations by government contractor Lockheed Martin.

ZOLT $37.50 +2.31% ...

LMT $96.70 -0.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 12:51:44 PM

YAHOO CONDEMNS SPEECH CONSTRAINT IN CHINA

DJ- China shouldn't punish people for expressing their political views on the Internet, Yahoo says one day after the mother of a jailed Chinese reporter said she was suing Apple for helping officials imprison her son.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 12:51:02 PM

QWEST CEO NOTEBAERT TO RETIRE

DJ- Qwest Communications Chairman and Chief Executive Richard C. Notebaert, who has been credited with turning around the local phone company after an accounting scandal, will retire after a successor is found.

Q $9.50 -6.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 12:50:09 PM

NUCOR SEES 2Q NET DOWN ON LOWER SHIPMENTS

DJ- Nucor shares fall more than 5% after the metals company says 2Q profit could come in as much as 27% lower than the record earnings reported a year earlier, hit by lower shipments from its bar mills.

NUE $62.89 -5.58% ...

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:49:23 PM

Well so much for that short. :)

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 12:49:08 PM

MICROSOFT, GE HAD MULLED BID FOR DOW JONES

DJ- General Electric and Microsoft were in discussions in recent weeks to combine Dow Jones with some portions of GE's NBC Universal, parrying a bid by News Corp, but failed to reach agreement, people briefed on the discussions say.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:36:54 PM

I see a short setting up that is just too nice to pass up. SHort ER at 840.40

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:27:17 PM

From a purely technical standpoint it looks like Oil will break the resistance at $67.00/bl. This of course is not taking into play the political pressures this commodity faces each and every day. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:22:49 PM

SPX is finding its resistance at the upward blue trendline AND the 20EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:21:03 PM

Bulls are not able to push the DOW above its 20EMA. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 12:20:39 PM

BIX.X 398.25 +0.58% ... this may be "key sector" for major index action this week. Steepening curve gives some margin relief, but overlap resistance (WR1/MPiv) would be trigger for strength.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 12:18:48 PM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix at this Link

Weekly updated for early Monday action.

Keene Little : 6/11/2007 12:18:33 PM

Chicago is about the worst to get through and there's very little you can do to avoid it. I guess this year I was lucky in that I halved my time--only 2 hours to get through this year. Ugh, it's the worst part of the whole trip across country.

I've been watching the market (in)action this morning and waiting for evidence of finishing the leg of the bounce off Friday's low. Another minor high might do it and then start a pullback into tomorrow. It could set up a nice little short play before getting the next rally leg.

If you like playing the bonds I see another leg down setting up here--a little sideways coil should be about finished and ready to break.

Continue to watch for a little whipsaw price action over the next couple of days (not much to speak of today so far). If we get a b-wave pullback then it will be ugly trading. The next leg up will be more fun. Check back in a little bit.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:14:45 PM

Getting into the lunch hour and the "no trading zone."

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:14:27 PM

Taking the ER short off the table now.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:13:29 PM

Large cap stocks are stronger than their small cap brethren. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:12:04 PM

VIX is supporting the bullishness today. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:09:48 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- During the next 10 days, four of Wall Street's biggest brokerages will report quarterly financial results that in any other era would be cause for celebration in Manhattan's toniest restaurants, luxury-car dealers and premium real-estate offices.

Do not, however, be surprised if the reaction among investors to the profits reported by Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC) Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH ) and Morgan Stanley (MS) is subdued. Results are expected to be flat to slightly lower than in recent periods.

Combine these with some recent hiring data for the financial-services industry and the summer of 2007's looking a lot like the summer of 2000.

Back then, the market was robust. The bubble, fueled by technology spending and Internet optimism, had brokerages nearing their highest-ever employment level -- 840,900, with more than 20% growth during the three preceding years.

While Wall Street's been more restrained in its hiring, it did break the 800,000-job mark at the end of 2006 and was inching higher before Citigroup Inc. (C) announced plans to cut 17,000 positions in April, according to government statistics.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 12:07:57 PM

Aluminum Corp. China to buy Peru Copper for $792 million.

MarketWatch Story Link

ACH $34.12 +1.21%

AMEX:CUP $6.10 +2.17% ...

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:07:15 PM

These are definately bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 12:05:55 PM

AD line is still below 0 but certainly a lot higher than its daily lows at -979. AD volume is above 0 and climbing. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:57:44 AM

I will short ER at 839.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 11:53:29 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for one (1) of the Monster Worldwide MNST Sep $45 Calls (BSQ-II) at the offer of $4.40.

MNST $45.30 (unch).

Stop on the option if stock trades $43.90. Target $56.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:47:02 AM

This weekend I went through all the DOW and OEX stocks to see which ones had a nice jtHMA setup but alas I found too many so now I need a filter to pare down the list.

I am long CVS from 37.90 with at stop at 37.25

Long MCD from 50.82 with at stop at 50.45

And will take MO long at 70.55

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:41:05 AM

It looks like MO is setting up as a nice long at 70.55, if/when it gets there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 11:47:59 AM

NASDAQ-100 Reversing Lower "sell signals"

Celgene (CELG) on 6/07 at $59 Link

Gilead Sciences (GILD) on 6/07 at $80 Link

Infosys (INFY) on 6/07 at $48 Link

Monster Worldwide (MNST) on 6/07 at $45 Link (first test of trend can be painful for bears, first sell signal in upward trend often a buying opportunity).

Starbucks (SBUX) Link on 6/07 at $28.

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) Link on 6/07 at $27.00.

PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Link on 6/08 at $84.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:31:24 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose Monday, breaking a five-session losing streak, as physical demand and technical buying boosted the precious metal, which fell to a multi-month low in the previous session.

"Bolstered by light physical buyers and on the back of an expected technical bounce, gold prices attempted a comeback on Monday morning," said Jon Nadler, metals analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.

"Trading action remained on the nervous side as the metals' complex vulnerabilities continue to be visible after the wounds it sustained last week," Nadler said.

Gold for August delivery rose $6.40 at $656.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:29:52 AM

Out at 840.40 enough to frost you isn't it?

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:29:20 AM

Stop now at 840.40 locking in 2 ticks.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:28:44 AM

Darn ER just did it again stopped 1 tick short of my target 841.40.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:27:46 AM

Stop to b/e

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:27:35 AM

Stop now at 839.4

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:26:51 AM

Target is 13 ticks at 841.50

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:26:32 AM

Long from 840.20 with a stop at 838.40 until I can get the stop moved up.

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 11:22:23 AM

I will be taking ER long at 840.20

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 11:22:08 AM

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % (BPNDX) Dorsey/Wright's did reverse back lower last week (Thursday) from "bear correction" to "bear confirmed" status at 68%, and saw a net loss of 1 stock to a reversing lower PnF sell signal on Friday to 67%.

StockCharts.com's NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link also reversed back lower.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 11:17:03 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

NASDAQ's NH/NL rather bullish compared to the NYSE. A notable "shift" from last couple of years where NASDAQ is usually the weakest first.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 11:02:37 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Linda Piazza : 6/11/2007 10:57:34 AM

I've been watching the action of the yen against both the euro and the U.S. dollar today. So far, neither currency pair--the USD/JPY or the EUR/JPY--is doing much. Both are staying in a fairly tight range, with the USD/JPY at 121.76 as I type, still below the 1/29/07 intraday high of 122.15. The EUR/JPY hasn't made much of a recovery attempt, however, off Friday's low, unless there's something wrong with my feed, always a possibility. I'm not sure that any bounce in the USD/JPY would make much difference to U.S. equities unless the EUR/JPY made some gains, too. These inter-market relationships are complex, but the yen carry trade could be adversely impacted by the EUR/JPY action as well as the USD/JPY, so I'm not certain how recovery on one without the other would impact that carry trade. What does this mean for traders? For me, it means I'm cautious about predicting any direction yet this morning for U.S. equities.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 10:40:45 AM

30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX.X) Link ... up 3.0 bp at 5.250%. Current target for Fed funds is 5.25%

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 10:37:47 AM

European Markets:

London's FTSE-100 ($FTSE) Link is up 35 points, or +0.54% at 6,540. Session low has been 6,506 while session high has been 6,563.

German's DAX ($DAX) Link is up 81 points, or +1.07% at 7,671. Session low has been 7,624 while session high has been 7,702. X's get the square(s) to 7,700.

France's CAC-40 ($CAC) Link is up 47 points, or +0.81% at 5,931. Session low has been 5,916 while session high has been 5,948.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 10:30:07 AM

Asian Markets:

Japan's Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link finished up 55 points, or +0.31% at 17,834. Session low was 17,802 while session high was 17,932. X's get the square(s) to 17,900.

The Hang Seng ($HSI) Link finished up 106 points, or +0.52% at 20,615. Session low was 20,592 while session high was 20,673. X gets the square(s) to 20,650.

The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) Link continued its rebound rising 82 points, or +2.11% to 3,995.

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 10:17:09 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert for the 100 shares in Continental Airlines (CAL) $35.80 -1.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 10:01:55 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/11/2007 9:37:15 AM

Last 3 Weekly Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 9:16:18 AM

Last but not least is a chart of Crude. That is quite the trading range this market has been in since March but the higher low made on May 29th then again tested on May 31st suggests to me that the upper trendline will break. I'm not sure how the stock market will perceive a break of this range but up to now the price of oil has not had too much of an affect on the stock market. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 9:11:47 AM

You can never do an analysis of gold without looking a chart of the US $. This looks like one great big bear flag doesn't it? The break on June 8th should certainly worry the bears but as you can see it just poked above the upper trendline and was not able to sustain that move. The lows made on June 5th have become all the more important now and if a retracement breaks that low then this is indeed a bear flag. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 9:05:48 AM

Gold has found support at its 200EMA but that is little comfort for us goldbugs because it is below all other MAs and its support from 2006 December highs. I have been on the sidelines in this market for weeks and have been waiting for a buy signal which seems to be slipping further and further away. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 8:59:18 AM

We can see the NAZ has also respected its blue trendline but this market's upward trendline is also the 50EMA so is a very good place to find support. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 8:53:52 AM

This chart is not anywhere near as clear as the DOW and SPX chart but nevertheless it has respected that ubiquitous blue trendline. MACD is also not as clear here either but the new yearly high made on June 4th was not made with a new MACD high and that can be read a bearish. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 8:48:48 AM

Interestingly the SPX has already broken its blue trendline and is finding its support at the 50EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 8:45:44 AM

Now we have to see if the bulls have the gun powder to break back above the magenta 20EMA resistance or will the bears be able to keep them at bay and force them back down below the blue trendline.

Of course only time will tell but I think the bulls still have further to go and that the bulls will win. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 8:40:45 AM

Gold and the US $ were in sync over the weekend, both traded sideways. Crude looks like it is trying to pick itself up off its PDLs and may help Gold but the $ needs to cooperate as well. The DAX broke its PDH over the weekend and that a heads up for American equity indexes. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 8:36:01 AM

Markets closed strong on Friday so unless something a market moving event happened over the weekend you can expect the markets to open Monday morning very close to where they closed and that is exactly what will happen this morning. Link

Jane Fox : 6/11/2007 8:26:49 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Although there has been anxiety in financial markets all week about inflation, the Federal Reserve does not have an itchy trigger finger to hike rates, an expert on inflation said Friday.

Instead, inflation has been like a lumpy chair in which one can't get comfortable.

Core consumer price inflation increased 2% year-over-year in April, making it the first time in 14 months that core prices have been inside the Fed's unofficial target zone of 1% to 2%. In addition, the core CPI over the last three months has risen only 1.9%.

"If the Fed looks at where inflation rates are, while they are not going to leap for joy, they certainly are about where the Fed has a right to hope they would be. But obviously the Fed is not only looking where we are, but where we are going. I would say right now there is a lot of uncertainty," said Don Ratajczak, an expert on inflation and an economic consultant to Morgan Keegan.

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