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Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:59:02 AM

Forex Economic Calendar (06/13/07) at this Link

Full plate on Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:48:27 AM

Forex Economic Calendar (06/12/07) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:39:56 AM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link ... Down 71 points, or -0.40% at 17,690. Session Low/High has been 17,592/17,696. O's to 17,600 at this point. 17,600 is just about the apex of the bullish triangle.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:35:25 AM

Hang Seng ($HSI) Link ... Down 39 points, or -0.19% at 20,598. Session High/Low has been 20,618/20,521 so no action at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:27:28 AM

Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) Link ... Up 85 points, or +2.10% at 4,157. X gets 2 squares.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:21:58 AM

World Bullish % found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:04:59 AM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) ... No telling how long this trade halt will last.

Shares of China Eastern Airline (CEA) $48.05 were halted "news pending" on 5/22/07 and remain halted.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 10:33:00 PM

The dial-up service provider for Canada (Sympatico) is having their own technical issues tonight and I'm not able to get that service started yet. For some reason I can't get charts uploaded to the Market Monitor through my Cingular wireless internet service and therefore apologize for not being able to get some updated charts to you. I'm hoping it will be fixed some time during the day Wendesday.

In the meantime if you look at the 60-min charts I posted after Monday's close you'll see the 3-wave bounce pattern that is still a very real possibility--it's just that Tuesday's pullback formed a larger 3-wave pullback of its own. For this pattern to hold we will need to see an immediate and sharp rally start on Wednesday. The upside Fib targets remain close to what I showed on those Monday evening charts.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:08:22 PM

SPX NH/NL finished at 8:7

RUT NH/NL was 21:49

OI Technical Staff : 6/12/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 5:33:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 5:29:04 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 5:28:38 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 5:27:57 PM

Sometimes you wonder if we are not dealing with a bunch of freaked out psychotics. The TNX chart is screaming for a pullback. I have never seen such a distance to the 20 dma. Give me a break. What a bunch of babies and I would be very careful here jumping on that train. At least now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 5:19:55 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PFH) $10.00 -1.47% ... this closed end "junk bond" fund goes out with SEC Yield of 9.00%.

Most recent NAV on 06/07/07 Link was $10.34. So trading at a discount to NAV of roughly 3.29%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 5:16:22 PM

5-year Treasury Yield ($FVX.X) ... went out up 9.7 bp at 5.154%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 5:15:16 PM

HSBC Finance Corp. $1B 5-Yr Debt Sold; Yld 5.932%; Tsys +0.82.

Amount: $1 billion
Maturity: June 19, 2012
Coupon: 5.90%
Issue Price: 99.863
Yield: 5.932%
Spread: 82 basis points over Treasurys
Settlement: June 19, 2007 (flat)
Call: Noncallable
Ratings: Aa3 (Moody's Investors Service)
AA- (Standard & Poor's)

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 5:12:04 PM

Barak Defeats Ayalon In Israeli Labor Party Vote

DJ- Ex-premier Ehud Barak has won the Labor Party primary over relative newcomer Ami Ayalon, party officials from both camps said late Tuesday.

As votes were still being counted, the officials said Barak would have a final margin of victory of 6% to 7%. They were speaking on condition of anonymity because the vote counting was still in progress.

Barak is expected to replace deposed party leader Amir Peretz as defense minister in Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's Cabinet. Both Barak and Ayalon called on Olmert to resign over last summer's inconclusive war in Lebanon, but Barak was not expected to pull his party out of the coalition right away.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 5:10:51 PM

If we rally out of this mess, bears will finally capitulate. That is still the missing ingredient, although Russell sure could have been the siren.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 4:59:16 PM

The selling in bonds continues thanks to Greenspan. No one is buying now and neither am I. Wait for some stability, or an outrageous low before Thursday. NQ is critical now.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 4:52:49 PM

Sell stops hit at ZN 104.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 4:51:28 PM

ZN might wait until pre-open to put in a low, that's what happened Friday. I'm flat, but waiting to get back in. Still long JPY, the trade is doing well, but too much ZN weakness hurts it against the dollar.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 4:46:23 PM

DEAN FOODS CUTS EPS VIEW ON DAIRY COSTS

DJ- Dairy processor cuts its 2Q and full-year adjusted earnings expectations due to a steep rise in dairy costs. Dean Foods now expects 2Q EPS of 30c-31c, down from 37c-38c, and full-year EPS of $1.52-$1.58, down from $1.72-$1.78.

DF $31.07 -4.28% ....

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 4:31:49 PM

That's good from a contrarian perspective.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 4:31:26 PM

ZN loses support, there is real fear on rates out there. Real fear.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 4:28:20 PM

Another reason I like the bounce idea--another rally up to the SPX 1520 area--is because of the Bradley turn date (June 13 or 14 depending on which site you look at). With this turn date being the first important one of the year I'd like to see if it works by marking the top of the bounce before letting go in a strong 3rd wave decline. But as I said, it really needs to get up and rally starting right away tomorrow so we should get our answer quickly.

I'll hopefully be able to get the problem resolved with uploading charts and get them updated by tonight.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 4:32:06 PM

Jane! Great ER short trade just after 2:00!

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 4:21:08 PM

Nice JPY bid.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 4:08:29 PM

BIOFUEL ENERGY CUTS IPO PRICE

DJ- Underwriters for BioFuel Energy cut the estimated price range for the company's pending initial public offering to $13-$14 a share from $16-$18 a share. BioFuel Energy still plans to offer 9.5 million shares in the IPO.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 4:10:55 PM

Buy bonds now, or at least start accumulating. Then raise stop to even before the Thursday nightmare if they rally, or get out. But there is a trade here.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 4:07:34 PM

So the equity market is positioned perfectly for the start of a big rally tomorrow--it has to happen out of the gate. Otherwise I do believe the fat lady is warnming up her voice.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 4:06:35 PM

So as a trader, look at this. Never before seen extension like this on TNX, and NQ still above support. What is the logic? TNX drops to the mean, and stocks could rally. Of course, TNX could go higher, but it just sets up a better buy on bonds. How many folks do you think will be buying bnds after seeing these rates? Millions. If you are Mr Armageddon on the economy you should be loading up on bonds now.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 4:06:25 PM

Marc, I like the Fibs for TNX at 52.85-53.00 before we get a bigger pullback. Short term though we could see at least a day of consolidation before pressing higher.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 4:03:42 PM

It's strange how some traders can look at an equity chart and scream over extended, but they look at TNX and say higher. I say over-extended on yields. I have rarely seen such a distance from the 20 dma (49.50).

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 4:01:44 PM

ZN could have bottomed at 104'005 ahead of Thursday PPI. Long 104'020, raising my stop to 104'005, but I might even lower it a little, say 103'095. Why yields are getting ahead of the Feds, I have no idea, but to think Bernanke is going to raise rates is a little stretched.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 3:58:59 PM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $34.31 ... Still halted. Still no official news. May not get it until Asian markets open for trade. (see 12:43:55)

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 3:58:35 PM

In fact two equal legs down from yesterday's high for SPX is at 1493.06 so it could be completing the b-wave pullback here and tomorrow we'll get a strong rally in wave-c. Hold off on the short side until we get a little more evidence. Getting another strong run higher in opex week would also be fitting. It's just that markettells data telling me something more bearish could be starting here.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 3:53:18 PM

If the pullback from yesterday's high, which so far is now a 3-wave move down, finds support around SPX 1492 then two equal legs up from last week's low would be near 1520 which is the 62% retracement of last week's decline. That's what I'm would prefer to see rather than a decline right from here. Then you'd have to short it on the way down rather than try to nab the top of the bounce. But we'll let price show the way here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 3:50:31 PM

IWM $81.57 -1.56% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:49:29 PM

Play currencies and bonds now. Equities are in opex hell.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 3:49:48 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 820.02 -1.57% ... retraces 19.1% of its 07/21/06 relative low close to recent all-time high close.

WEEKLY S1 here at 819.96 as is MONTHLY S1. Biiiig test here.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:50:26 PM

JPY long worked, now bought some ZN at 104'020 again. A slight ZN bid will give JPY a boost overnight. BOJ could be hawkish when they meet. The best insurance you can get right now is to buy some Yen.

Jim Brown : 6/12/2007 3:45:01 PM

Email question: Jim, What charting service did you use for the chart at 3:32:25 PM? Regards, Billy

I use QCharts for most of my charting. If anyone has Qcharts and wants my workspace I will be happy to email it to you.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:44:05 PM

NQ 1916. 1912 is monthly pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:43:33 PM

ISEE reads opposite of normal pc ratios.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:42:35 PM

Readings belwo 120 are bearish in sentiment, since calls outweigh 90% of the time. Any reading below 100 is ultra bearish, witness last week's bottom with an ISEE at .70 or so.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:40:53 PM

Bears are now throwing everything at this. ISEE at 107. Link

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 3:40:05 PM

There are two possibilities as we head into the close (I wish I could show them on charts but I can't upload charts on my wireless internet connection which makes no sense at all).

The first is that this afternoon's pullback is part of a larger pullback to the rally from last week's low. That interpretation still calls for another leg up as per the 60-min charts I've been posting. Another push above this afternoon's high is needed to confirm that (so that's where your stop belongs if short).

The second is much more immediately bearish. If we now get another smaller bounce into the close then things could be set up for a strong move to the downside tomorrow (we have what looks like a 1-2, 1-2 wave count to the downside from yesterday's high). And yesterday's high may have been it for the wave-2 correction to last week's decline. In other words the potential here is uber-bearish. I'll see how it closes but I'd be thinking of getting yourself some put options for the next carnival ride. Just keep in mind your risk is back up to this afternoon's high.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:38:12 PM

This is it, do or die for bulls and the trend. COMP needs to hold 2550.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:32:32 PM

It's too obvious to short TNX 52.50 like last year. The market does not work like that, but respect price if NQ does lose 1913.

Jim Brown : 6/12/2007 3:32:25 PM

Pretty solid support at 830 for the Russell futures but so far no bounce. A break here goes to 820. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:28:27 PM

Focus on NDX and COMP. No financials there, any index with financials will get hurt and get all the freaked out headlines. As long as NQ holds the May 30 low of 1913, this is just noise. The lead must come from techs now, or the rally is indeed over. But multiple days of +1 pc ratio readings including some +2, tells me to be weary of the short side. It is very crowded there.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:23:29 PM

NQ 1921.25 is 50% Thursday/Monday.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:22:45 PM

If you must go long, stick to stocks with wide profit margins (quite a few techs in that).

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 3:22:18 PM

I'm back. What's up with the sell off? I left the NDX chart up and I see it has now dropped below the previous low earlier this afternoon. Not good. The 3-wave bounce off this morning's low is a clear correction. Now the best the bulls can hope for (regardless of the ISEE readings) is for a larger sideways/up correction. This is bearish price action, pure and simple. The markettells data pointing to a lower low (below last Thursday's) for this week is looking more and more likely.

Jim Brown : 6/12/2007 3:20:36 PM

Many equity traders wonder why all the fuss over bonds. Check out this intraday chart of the S&P from today with the 10-year yield overlaid in blue. Any questions? Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:20:26 PM

I took ZN 104'02 and got out at 104'035. buying some Yen for the overnight session.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:19:28 PM

I suspect many are waiting for Thursday before completely freaking out or covering, either way.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:18:26 PM

TNX at last year highs. This is it for bulls. Hold it or drop it.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:17:05 PM

ZN pulls up off lows.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 3:16:53 PM

iShares 7-10YR (AMEX:IEF) $79.64 -0.64% ...

Jim Brown : 6/12/2007 3:12:38 PM

Same picture an hour later. Resistance held. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 3:11:14 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 3:05:52 PM

TNX 52.50 sell-off. Watch ZN 104 level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 3:02:33 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:59:31 PM

Back long ZN here. Without Thursday's data, this drop is a little premature. But very tight stops, they might want a 5.25% headline.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 2:48:01 PM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) now up 11.5 bp at 5.355%. MONTHLY R2 is gone.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 2:45:11 PM

BIX.X 397.84 -0.29% ... from 400, sure didn't like the 30-year moving to new session highs.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 2:41:53 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks were off lows Tuesday, after former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan reportedly said he wasn't worried that foreigners will sell U.S. Treasuries, which helped to soothe concerns about rising bond yields.

In addition, crude oil prices dropped 1%, easing worries about inflation.

"Greenspan's comments were wishy-washy but we're back on the plus side," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners. "The pull-back is not over but all the volatility we're seeing is due to the expiration of options."

Speaking in New York, Greenspan was quoted by press services as saying he is not worried that foreigners will sell their Treasurys. Falling Treasury prices, which send yields higher, have pressured the market since last week, offering an alternative to stocks investments and lifting borrowing costs for consumers and businesses alike

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 2:43:46 PM

QQQQ $46.76 -0.12% ... overlapping WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot holds resistance. Session high marced at 02:04 PM EDT at $47.04.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:36:14 PM

That is the one note I must give traders and investors: be careful of any summer geo-political events, not to mention hurricanes. I plan on being flat in July/August with a short bias.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:33:50 PM

Otherwise, I just patiently wait for what could be a nice long trade in bonds throughout the summer. Heck, it's even a great refuge if we go to war.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:32:52 PM

Just in case they don;t get up to 52.50 before Thursday.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:32:39 PM

Long ZN 104'095. Tight stop 104'075.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:27:12 PM

I am a ZN buyer at TNX 52.50. Big time.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:24:37 PM

Thanks for the note Jim. It's still a -1600 day, and OpEx. Add the TNX bid and you see the pressures at work. If PPI is tame, off we go. If not, then bears win the round and it's short the rallies.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 2:22:35 PM

3 Trades today. 2 b/e and one 13 tick profit.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:22:21 PM

10 day ema seems to be the almost the same as 100/130 ema 30mn.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 2:21:29 PM

And 13 ticks made in a few seconds - those are the trades we all like.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:20:40 PM

Nothing will really be decided until PPI and jobless claims on Thursday. For now, this is OpEx noise, with a QQQQ 47 pin.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 2:20:31 PM

Short from 837.80

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 2:20:11 PM

Jim I totally agree that we are at a major decision point however, I have been using the daily 20EMA. I think if the DOW and SPX cannot close back above this MA it is almost " baked in the cake" that the lows made on June 8th will break. Link

Jim Brown : 6/12/2007 2:19:44 PM

Correct, the 100 and 130 exp (HL) averages on the 30 min chart.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:19:35 PM

I have 10 day ema NDX at 1907, which is pretty close to 100/130 ema 30 mn.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:17:54 PM

You mean on the 30 mn charts, Jim.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 2:15:55 PM

I happen to be bullish but does that mean those who are bearish are wrong? Heck no! They just have a different perspective from me. Heaven knows I have been wrong many many times and if there is anything that I have learned over the years is that you always have to have an open mind and take into consideration another's point of view.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 2:13:30 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. federal government deficit widened to $67.7 billion in May, compared with $42.9 billion in May 2006, the Treasury Department reported Tuesday.

The increase in the deficit was largely due to faster processing of tax returns in April, as well as timing differences on outlays.

The deficit was slightly less than the $71 billion estimated last week by the Congressional Budget Office.

In May, receipts fell 14.8% to $164.2 billion, while outlays dropped 1.5% to $231.9 billion, the government said.

Receipts are up 9.3% year-to-date at $1.669 trillion. Outlays are up 2.5% to $1.817 trillion. The slow increase in outlays is largely due to a more benign hurricane season in 2006 compared with 2005, when Hurricane Katrina led to billions of increased federal spending.

Jim Brown : 6/12/2007 2:12:59 PM

Readers may remember that I use a 100/130 exp average for longer term trade signals on the big three indexes. The current rebound has returned to exactly where those averages are providing resistance. While I would like to think we will break back to the upside this is a major decision point and how the indexes react the rest of the day could be critical to future market direction. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:11:55 PM

If you really want to play the downside, buy some Yen on dips.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:10:37 PM

Anyway, I rest my case with price action. No one can give me any valid argument against that.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:09:24 PM

That does not mean there isn;t money on the short side. Pleanty. But it's not a sell and hold like 2000, not even for more than two days. I am only daytrading shorts.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:07:54 PM

Funds buy stocks, speculators use options, as do small accounts. ISEE tracks that.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:07:27 PM

ISEE is the only true sentiment indicator out there. No short options, only long options, put or call, and only equity. It is pure sentiment. Last year's May highs was at +200. We have never even come close this year.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 2:07:10 PM

Short raised to 837.80.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:06:01 PM

Only when you see positive reads in sentiment on technical breakdown do you have a valid short. Just like in 2000.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:05:07 PM

Keene, it's all over the ISEE readings the past few days.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:04:39 PM

It's a moron's game and you have to be stupid and trade what is "not supposed to be" and "I can't believe this" as long as it is IN THE TREND.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:02:51 PM

Big IQ's is not an asset in trading.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 2:02:43 PM

Marc, show me the data when you say most traders are short. The information I'm getting is that the data is skewed (such as the NYSE short ratio interest) by the thousands of hedge funds hedging rather than playing directionally. It's a different ballgame here.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:02:17 PM

See you later. Remember, it's about making money, not being smart.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 2:01:15 PM

I've got to step away for about 30 minutes. Stay long as long as this afternoon's pullback doesn't get violated.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 2:01:03 PM

It's like beating a dead horse, I just can't get bears to go long on these drops. That's a shame.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 2:04:03 PM

US 10-year Treasury Results

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $8.00 billion in reopened 10-year notes at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 5.230%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $20.44 billion and accepted $8.00 billion, including $32.17 million of noncompetitive tenders, down from $60.75 million in noncompetitive tenders accepted at the previous 10-year note auction on May 8.

The Treasury received no bids from foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.55, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 64.49%.

The dollar price was 94.399130 and the coupon rate was set at 4.500%.

The median rate was 5.210%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 5.172%.

Accepted indirect bids for the reopened 10-year note were 10.9% of the total, down from 44.3% in May.

The high rate was up from 4.612% at the previous 10-year note auction. The high rate was the highest since 5.865% at the 10-year note auction on Nov. 8, 2000.

The issue is dated June 15 and matures on May 15, 2017. It is a reopening of a note originally issued May 15; the notes sold were actually 9-year, 11-month notes.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:59:59 PM

The game is built so that most traders lose. And most trades are short. Period.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:59:55 PM

WE are getting really overbot here so I will try to get a short and Inevitable Reversal. Short at 835.8

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 1:59:41 PM

We shall soon find out Marc. Gold was supposed to continue rallying due to fundamentals also. I think the selling and breaking strong support shows that the market doesn't trade fundamentals--fundamentals follow the technicals.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:59:17 PM

Greenspan: Unsure When Current "Wash Of Liquidity" Will Likely Subside

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:59:07 PM

And off we go again. Please, traders, follow price not your bias.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:59:35 PM

Multiple low ISEE days on these pullbacks. That is supportive.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:57:46 PM

Bears have not thrown in the towel, you cannot call tops until they do. That is a fundamental error.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 1:56:30 PM

And while I'm looking at NDX, just in case the more bearish pattern is playing out, this bounce will only be a correction of the decline from yesterday's high. Two equal legs up is at 1907.86 (almost tagged just now) and a 62% retracement is at 1906.09. Therefore if NDX now turns back down and breaks this afternoon's low, short it.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:56:41 PM

Keene, I just don't understand what has been your rationale for saying this for the past six months. You are echoing the majority of traders, most of whom have been sitting on the sidelines missing out. Of course the markets will go down one day, but the disciplined trader has been buying dips until proven otherwise.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 1:54:02 PM

I still can't get charts uploaded (hope to get that changed once I get my dial-up backup in service) but the updated NDX 60-min chart (from the one I posted late yesterday) shows it bottomed where I thought it would today and that leaves the upside projection at the same 1928 (two equal legs up at 1928.35 and 78.6% retracement at 1928.55). It can certainly rally higher (or not make it to that level) but that's where I'll be watching very closely for a MOAP (mother of all puts).

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:53:07 PM

Greenspan: Current "Wash Of Liquidity" Should Subside

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:51:55 PM

Greenspan: Recent 10-year Yield Rise May Be "Cyclical Firming"

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:51:24 PM

Greenspan: Not Worried Foreigners Will Sell Treasury Holdings

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:50:57 PM

Greenspan: No Sign China Selling Off Dollar Assets

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 1:50:11 PM

Not surprisingly my opinion on techs is a little different than Marc's--I think techs and small caps will lead the parade to the downside. I'm still not sure if we'll see new highs in those two (perhaps without confirming new highs for the blue chips) but I'm sticking with "all assets will be sold together" mantra until I see evidence to the contrary.

For instance, the techs continue to look weak when you compare them to the blue chips. That should continue and it's why I think they'll lead to the downside. It's not fundamentals that matter; it's investor mood and when it turns sour everything goes on sale.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:49:43 PM

And there goes ES to new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:48:59 PM

QQQQ $46.87 +0.10% ... session high. Test of WEEKLY Pivot eminent.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:48:40 PM

I think July and August will have a bearish bias, but I would be careful shorting June.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:48:05 PM

I want to be bearsih, and I did short the open for a quick trade, but I can't. This market is so much more bullish than many realize. Bears are not even close to throwing in the towel. If you think QQQQ 50 is not happening in the next months, you are in denial.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:46:11 PM

Olin Corp. (OLN) $19.58 +0.10% ... inches green.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:44:43 PM

I would venture to say that the Armagedon bears that have been permeating the web the past 2 years were traders that went long in March of 2000. Perma-bears always go long at tops.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:43:43 PM

NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart 2%-box at this Link

"f"ive day, with X/O measuring 10-day ratio.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:39:26 PM

VIX is telling me ES will make a new daily high. Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:37:43 PM

With the market environment been what it was today I choose to move my stop to b/e and give the trade some room to get to full profit.

Funny how my last two trades were mirror images of each other.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:37:37 PM

COMP 2645 is right around the corner.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:37:24 PM

Cramer, like most fund managers, does not understand techs. They are shying away from the very sector they should be overweight on. The higher margins in techs do better in higher rates. Any idiot who shorted 1999 now knows this.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:33:39 PM

So did I move my stop up too fast? No. We got to within 2 ticks of profit so at that point you should take all risk off the table. Your only decision then is should I move my stop close enough to lock in some profit, take profit now or raise my stop to b/e.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:32:30 PM

Santa Rosa chip will be hot for laptops and back to school.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:31:53 PM

And I say that because it's under everyones radar, including Cramer who does not understand what is happening in semis. His bearish comments last week on INTC gave a price you might never see again with that stock (21.29).

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:28:30 PM

I still have a 30 target for INTC this year, possibly 25 by end of month

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:28:29 PM

NYSE, NASDAQ, SPX and RUT NH/NL table I track at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/12/2007 1:28:13 PM

Do not bet against a market that has a heavy INTC bid mid day.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:27:46 PM

My broker is pretty dang happy with me though.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:27:07 PM

Too funny, I was stopped at b/e again.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:24:20 PM

Probably should raise to lock in some profit bbbuuuttt....

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:23:52 PM

WE just got to within 2 ticks of profit so stop to b/e now.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 1:23:27 PM

Got the pop out of the bull flags so now if got long just place your stop just below the pullback low. No sense risking more than you have to--this needs to keep rallying now otherwise it will turn more bearish.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:23:25 PM

Stop now at 832.8 3 ticks at risk.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:22:12 PM

Stop now to 832.4

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:21:38 PM

Raise stop to 831.9

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:21:10 PM

Target is 13 ticks, 834.40

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:20:12 PM

Plenty of time to get that 833.10 now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:19:53 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

110 NL at the big board exceeding the 105 from 6/7/07.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:19:10 PM

Sorry stop is too close - lower to 830.9.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:18:37 PM

Stop is 831.4

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:17:22 PM

That post is going to be late - get in if you can but don't chase it.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:17:00 PM

I am long ER at 833.10.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:07:07 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:04:44 PM

Should have put the stop to 832 to lock in 3 ticks.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:04:43 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) Link ...

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:03:57 PM

And look at that we get stopped at b/e.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 1:03:54 PM

European Indexes:

London's FTSE-100 Link finished down 47 points, or -0.72% at 6,520. Session Low/High was 6,514/6,586 with no action.

Germany's DAX ($DAX) Link was off 27 points, or -0.36% at 7,678. Session High/Low was 7,740/7,630 with no action.

France's CAC-40 ($CAC) Link was lower by 41 points, or -0.71% at 5,898. Session Low/High was 5,883/5,944 with no action.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 1:03:41 PM

The slow sideways/down correction since about noon looks like a bull flag so expect a rally out of this. The flip side is very bearish and says it's going to break down hard and soon. Trying the long side here is the higher odds bet but you need to use a violation of today's low as your stop.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:03:36 PM

We made a low of 831.20 and our profit target is sitting at 831.00

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 1:02:55 PM

Stop is lowered to b/e

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:55:58 PM

Intel (INTC) $22.22 +1.32% ... has moved above near-term downward trend from 5/23 relative high to recent 6/04 relative high of $22.54.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 12:55:25 PM

Target is 13 ticks.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 12:54:50 PM

I will lower the stop once we get into profit but for now I will leave it wide.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 12:54:16 PM

Stop is 833.60.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 12:53:44 PM

I will be going short ER at 832.30

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 12:50:09 PM

I had commented yesterday that the bonds were in a sideways coil and looked to be fininshing it so look to play the break down out from it. Also right on cue this morning's break shows that the coil (which I'm counting as a 4th wave correction in the decline from the May high) was in fact a continuation pattern. On TNX's chart (10-year yield) I had shown some Fib correlation at 52.85 and now with this next leg up in yields I see another internal Fib projection (5th wave = 62% of the 1st wave up from the May low) just under 53 (5.3%) so that could be where this is headed before we see a larger pullback correction. Currently trading at 52.23.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:43:55 PM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) ... finding this Reuters Story Link under Alcoa's headlines.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 12:42:12 PM

If you're trading gold hopefully you shorted yesterday's bounce back up to its broken 200-dma. I say hopefully only because of my bearish opinion on the metal. It's in a down-channel for now and as I see it, that should be the trend for a while (I'll post a daily chart update as soon as I get one uploaded--this problem is rather frustrating and I'm not sure what's causing it).

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:32:33 PM

Continuous Unleaded ($GASO) $0.02-box to match futures Link ... Recent trade at $2.26 was triple bottom sell signal. Bearish vertical count column (O from $2.34 to $2.18) under construction and hints at $2.10.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:29:40 PM

EIA: US Gasoline Price Down in June, July; Rising Again in August.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:28:55 PM

Brazil's Real Strengthens After Govt. Announces Measures

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:25:56 PM

NASDAQ-100 Heat Map Link ... A/D breadth 30:70

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:23:01 PM

Apple (AAPL) $121.34 +0.95% ... held WEEKLY S1 (119.03). Weekly Pivot $123.32.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 12:22:14 PM

MCD also gave me a buy signal and I am long from 50.82. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:22:13 PM

QQQQ $46.75 -0.12% ... not a bank in the bunch, but holding tough.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 12:20:52 PM

CVS gave me a jtHMA buy signal but I was stopped at 37.25. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:20:45 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 398.76 -0.06% ... slips back red. All equity-based indexes red.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:18:20 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $73.40 -0.56% Link ... recent trade at $72 was reversing lower "sell signal" and negates prior bullish vertical count to $82. Bearish vertical count column (O from 75 to 72) under construction and hints at $67.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 12:14:18 PM

One reason I mention the more immediately bearish possibility is because of some data I was reviewing over the weekend from markettells.com. The author of this site has a huge database of market statistics that makes it possible for him to project market moves based on what the market did the previous times that exhibited the same behavior (similar to what Stock Traders Almanac does but much more detailed in his database search capabilities).

He found that the market has a high probability of following through in 3-5 days on a move that experienced an abnormally large spike in open interest. Last Thursday was down and there was a large spike in open interest. Therefore his database shows a high likelihood that the market will be lower than last Thursday's low in 3-5 days (so this week). Something to keep in mind while watching the current bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:13:56 PM

IEA: End-June US Gasoline Stocks Seen 11M BBL Below Year Ago

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:12:43 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $134.23 -0.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:12:07 PM

Continuous WTIC $0.50 box to match futures Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:11:24 PM

EIA: Q3 WTI Crude Forecast At $67; Down $0.33 Vs. May Report

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:10:25 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $49.43 -0.82% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:08:43 PM

EIA: Q2 World Oil use +1.6% Vs. Year Ago; China Use +6.8%

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 12:05:35 PM

SPX 60-min chart updated: Link

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 12:04:30 PM

SPX is also following the script so far--as per the charts I posted late last night (I couldn't do after 10:00 PM so that they'd be visible in today's postings) I thought SPX might pull back to about 1498 for a 62% retracement of the the rally off Friday's low. So it was a good place to try a long play and now we'll see if we get the next rally leg up to 1520 (62% retracement of the decline) to 1525 (two equal legs up). I'm having trouble uploading charts again so I'll post the SPX chart as soon as I can.

Stay aware that it's possible the bounce to yesterday's high is all we'll get for a correction to last week's decline. If true then a roll back over here to a new daily low, confirmed with a break below last Friday's 1487 low, would be more immediately bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 12:03:36 PM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) ... still halted. Still now news released.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:58:06 AM

Texas Instruments (TXN) $35.46 -0.89% ... moves into morning gap.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:57:27 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $36.60 +0.02% ... inch green.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:57:05 AM

NASDAQ Telecom (IXTCX) 247.98 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:56:31 AM

S&P 100/500 and RUT.X have "most" bank/financial exposure.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 11:54:16 AM

And you have the TRIN making new daily lows. Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 11:53:30 AM

Notice that VIX made a lower high while ES made a lower low. This is a bullish divergence and suggests a bottom. Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 11:51:37 AM

The bears certainly have the ball this morning but we may be making a bottom here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:50:26 AM

Correction to earlier post regarding TLT ... "bad tick" to $82.20. Session lows looks to be $82.65.

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 11:49:57 AM

DOW 60-min chart update: Link

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 11:49:09 AM

That chart didn't post so will upload again and post it as soon as it uploads properly.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:48:29 AM

DJ Survey- Argentina Q1 GDP Seen 8% Higher on Year

Keene Little : 6/12/2007 11:47:43 AM

After adding another 2900 miles to the odometer I've arrived safe and sound to my eastern Canada "office". I'm just firing things back up and I see the market has obligingly pulled back this morning and started bouncing. Now let's see if we get the next leg up: Link If we've seen the low for the pullback then two equal legs up for the DOW is at 13545 and a 62% retracement of the decline is at 13524 so that's our target zone.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:47:31 AM

S&P Insurance (IUX.X) 412.27 (unch) ... "financial" showing some stability.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:45:16 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 399.26 +0.07% ... inch green. Only equity-based sector in US market watch in the green.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:44:23 AM

As a pulse, the 4-week is probably the "least risky," but initial look at what market participants see as risk/reward. Will compare to longer-dated 10-year, where time is the RISK.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:42:49 AM

4-week Treasury Auction (results)

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $8.00 billion in four-week bills at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 4.545%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $31.22 billion and accepted $8.00 billion, including $382 million of noncompetitive tenders.

The dollar price was 99.646500 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.637%.

The Treasury also sold $10 million of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis. Foreign and international noncompetitive tenders totaled $10 million.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 3.90, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 85.92%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $5.93 billion in bills for its own account. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $20.92 billion of maturing bills, and in Monday's auction the Fed purchased $15.0 billion in three- and six-month bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

The median rate was 4.530%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:35:37 AM

iShares 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $82.95 -0.73% ... pretty good intra-day reversal taking place after session low of $82.20.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:34:20 AM

30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) up 7.9 bp at 5.319% ... new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:32:58 AM

US 4-week Bills: Bid-to-Cover 3.90 4.545%; 85.92% At High.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:31:55 AM

13-week Yield ($IRX.X) down 1.5 bp at 4.575%. This starts to look more defensive. Rather low yield, but get your money back in 13-weeks plus some interest.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:29:49 AM

Looks like Bank of Canada buying back shorter-dated maturities.

May look for same here in US.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:28:36 AM

Bank of Canada Buys Back C$948M of Bonds At Tuesday Operation

DJ- The Bank of Canada, on behalf of the Government of Canada, announced the results of a repurchase operation conducted Tuesday.

The Bank of Canada said a total of C$948 million (US$894 million) of Government of Canada marketable bonds were repurchased.

Of the total, the Bank of Canada repurchased:

-C$848,268,000 of 4.50%, Sept. 1, 2007 bonds;

-C$100,000,000 of 2.75%, Dec. 1, 2007 bonds.

It said the settlement date is June 14.

The Bank of Canada said the number of bonds outstanding after repurchase includes:

-C$7,516,732,000 of 4.50%, Sept. 1, 2007 bonds;

-C$6,802,164,000 of 2.75%, Dec. 1, 2007 bonds.

The next cash management bond repurchase operation will take place on June 26.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 11:25:11 AM

Crude just cannot break out of this trading range. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:16:09 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: It would take a closing measure of 68.00% or lower for the NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back lower.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 11:02:04 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 10:56:44 AM

Now the $64000 question is, "Will the blue upward trendline hold up as support"? Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 10:54:32 AM

It looks like the daily 20EMAs that I have been showing are going to hold for now.

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 10:53:55 AM

All markets are now below their PDLs. AD line is a very bearish -2200. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:57:09 AM

European Govt. Bonds Fall On US Treasury Supply Concerns

DJ- European government bond prices fell sharply Tuesday on supply concerns as the market prepared for an issue of U.S. 10-year Treasurys later in the day.

Analysts reported paying in dollar swaps ahead of the auction of $8.0 billion of 10-year Treasury notes, which added to negative sentiment in markets.

The focus on the U.S. market drowned out what should have been a slight gain when euro-zone April industrial production data came in 0.8% lower on the month compared with the forecast in a Dow Jones Newswires survey for a rise of 0.2%. Similar news Monday from Italy and France had given the market a slight boost.

Instead, prices on the September bund contract spent the better part of the day on a downward trend, breaking technical support around 110.57/62 and heading toward a contract low of 110.27.

At 1430 GMT, the September bund contract on Eurex was down 0.46 at 110.35. The 10-year benchmark bund was down 0.46 at 97.07, to yield 4.62%.

The September gilt future contract was down 0.56 at 103.89, with the 4% gilt due 2016 down 0.56 at 89.52, to yield 5.46%.

European government bond trading had started slowly, on the back of a selloff in Treasurys and a 3.4% increase in China's consumer price index for May, the highest increase in more than two years.

A trader at a European bank said customer flows were extremely light Tuesday, although there was some evidence of dip buying.

Simon Penn, a market analyst at UBS, said the big danger now is that buyers might show decreased demand for the U.S. auction, which might then spread out across the bond market. "If investors really are running scared of fixed income, then the sale could be in trouble." If that equals lessened demand across the board, he said, "the market is going to be very worried."

BNP Paribas shared similar sentiments, expecting even higher yields in the days to come. "The market is waiting for any pretext to sell off again," the bank said.

Gilts ran into their own headwinds on concerns about increased inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes, hitting a contract low of 103.85 while the yield on the 10-year gilt rose above 5.45% for the first time since May 2000.

The break of the recent high of 5.43% could target a move higher to 5.50%, according to Marc Ostwald, a market analyst with Insinger de Beaufort.

The fears started after hawkish comments by Bank of England Governor Mervyn King in a speech Monday night, further cementing expectations of an impending interest rate hike. Weighed down by King's comments, news that U.K. consumer prices only rose 2.5% on the year, below expectations for a reading of 2.6% in a Dow Jones Newswires survey, did little to quell inflationary fears.

Additionally, the inflation index showed a 1.9% increase in core CPI on the year, up from 1.8% in April.

Gavin Redknap, economist with Standard Chartered Bank, said the increase in core CPI would likely trouble the Bank of England. "Rates still look set to head higher. The only question is how high rates need to go."

Linda Piazza : 6/12/2007 10:51:28 AM

Jane mentioned some SPX levels to watch on the daily chart. I'm dropping in to mention some things to watch on the intraday charts before I have to take off again. The SPX offers a potential H&S formation on its five- to 15-minute charts, forming since Friday afternoon's rise into a left shoulder. You likely know that these formations are no longer as reliable as they once were, but they can still be a gauge of short-term bullish or bearish strength. The trouble with this one is that two opinions can be formed. One is that a truncated right shoulder has already formed and the neckline has been breached, with that neckline now at about 1502. The other is that the truncated formation is not a right shoulder and that a right shoulder still needs to form. Therefore, if the SPX does continue the tepid bounce that's begun (bullish five-minute divergences support that idea) then watch for resistance at 1502, but particularly at the 1505.40-1506.90 zone. That last zone and slightly above it would be the appropriate level for a right shoulder to begin flattening and then rolling down.

Again, don't count on these formations to obediently follow the rules for their formation, confirmation or obtaining of ultimate downside targets. They frequently just do not work well any longer. Do watch to see if bulls or bears are currently in charge. I mentioned this formation only to caution those going long a bounce to be careful in case the current bounce is just either a neckline test (of an already formed H&S with a shortened right shoulder) or a right-shoulder formation if a right shoulder is still need. Bears, be warned that the appropriate right shoulder level is often the level from which bulls gather forces and invalidate the thing, resulting in a higher push. If that happens, don't hold on, convinced that a right shoulder will form while prices zoom higher. Action is choppy here, as it always is when we see these potential formations set up, because they're a sign that bears and bulls are still struggling for short-term supremacy.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:48:29 AM

Asian Markets:

Japan's Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link closed down 73 points, or -0.41% at 17,760. Session High/Low was 17,862/17,736. 3-box reversal to 17,750.

Hang Seng ($HSI) Link was up 20 points, or +0.10% at 20,636. Session High/Low was 20,664/20,512. No action.

Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) Link finished up 76 points, or +1.91% at 4,072. X gets the square to 4,050.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:37:55 AM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) ... still halted. No news that I can find.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:33:30 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 398.00 -0.25% ... Holds WEEKLY Pivot. Daily Pivot (398.41) early resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:31:48 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 8.4 bp at 5.221%. Session high has been WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:24:42 AM

Bearish swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 position in the Ultrashort QQQ (AMEX:QID) at the offer of $48.17 +1.21%. Stop goes $46.50, target $52.50.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:17:06 AM

RATE CUT ODDS IN 4Q SLASHED IN CME EURODOLLARS

DJ- Prices for Eurodollar interest rate futures fall early, maintaining the trend of recent weeks to reduce market expectations for a cut in the benchmark U.S. federal-funds rate this year.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:16:23 AM

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS NARROWS 2Q TARGETS

DJ- Chip maker forecasts sales of $3.36 billion to $3.51 billion, versus prior forecast of $3.32 billion to $3.6 billion. The company expects EPS from continuing operations of 40c-44c, compared with prior outlook of 39c-45c.

TXN $35.11 -1.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:15:26 AM

LEHMAN BROTHERS NET JUMPS 27% ON EQUITIES TRADING

DJ- Lehman Brothers 2Q net rises to $1.27 billion, or $2.21 a share, as revenue climbs 25% to $5.51 billion. Wall Street expected EPS of $1.88 a share on revenue of $4.97 billion. Fixed income trading slides 14% hurt by recent troubles with its mortgage business.

LEH $77.50 +2.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:14:05 AM

Chile Mulls 31.5% Tarriff On Wheat, Flour Imports

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:04:53 AM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) ... halted for trade. News pending.

Jeff Bailey : 6/12/2007 10:02:25 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 9:11:01 AM

Once Gold broke below its upward blue trendline it has not been able to break back above it. Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 8:57:07 AM

Although the SPX broke and closed below its blue upward trendline, it did find support at the 50EMA. We now have two very clear levels to watch, the 20EMA above and the 50EMA below. Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 8:51:58 AM

The fact that the DOW was not able to break above its magenta 20EMA makes me wonder if we have more downside to go. a close below that blue upward trendline would not tell me the bulls are in for a rough summer. Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 8:48:26 AM

Yesterday the $'s buyers pretty much matched its sellers and the result was a very narrow range bound day. Gold was able to eventually break its daily high around 12:30 due to the rally in crude but if crude had not rallied I don't think Gold would have been able to make a higher high.

The DAX made a new overnight low at around 7:30EDT so I am wondering if the DOW will follow intraday. Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 8:39:56 AM

Large cap indexes all retested their respective overnight highs at around 5:00EDT but could not find the buyers to break to a new high. ES and YM then fell to their PDLS where they found support but NQ closed close enough to its daily lows on Monday that the 5:00 drop was able to break its PDL. I suspect the internals will open on the bearish side. Link

Jane Fox : 6/12/2007 8:32:23 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Lehman Brothers (LEH) Tuesday said its second-quarter net income rose to $1.27 billion, or $2.21 a share, from $1 billion, or $1.69 a share in the year-ago period. The company said net revenue rose to $5.51 billion from $4.41 billion a year earlier. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had been looking for profit of $1.88 a share on revenue of $4.97 billion. "With non-U.S. net revenues representing nearly half of our total net revenues for the quarter, our global platform is stronger and more balanced than ever," said Chief Executive Richard S. Fuld, Jr., in a statement. The stock gained 2% to $75.68 on Monday.

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