Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:35:48 AM

Updated NH/NL Measures Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:24:49 AM

SPX NH/NL finished at 25:1

RUT 46:36

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:21:30 AM

Whew! Time for bed, but there's more commodity charts to be viewed.

Some observations tonight ahead of tomorrow morning's PPI data.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:18:20 AM

Continuous Corn conventional 2-point box Link ... remember two sessions of "limit down" back in late March/early April on prelim spring crop report, now Beige Book update.

4-box for more time observation back to January Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:18:16 AM

Continuous Cotton at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:18:11 AM

Shiver me timbers! ... Continuous Lumber Link ... when were those Florida/Georgia fires?

Ah, yes ... 05/17/07 MM 04:25:55 PM to 04:46:03.

July Lumber (CME:lb07n) $263 that day.

Never underestimate the real news, and be able to cover the bases.

Should Fed raise rates in relation to lumber's action?

You can feel it can't you? Short lumber on weak housing, then suddenly, fire takes out portion of lumber supply. Boom! Scenario goes up in flames, run for cover.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:35:58 AM

Continuous Aluminum Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:27:36 AM

Continuous Copper PnF chart with Beige Book periods noted. Today's Beige Book would have encompassed April 16 to June 4. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:09:21 AM

Email

Just to let you know since you told me YM is a fraction before DOW, I'm half blind from watching the bid ask fly by. What's your guess on market movement after the Beige Book announcement? Thanks - I like your comments - honest

Reply ... You aren't, and I wasn't kidding about the YM. You'll go crazy with anything finer than a 3-minute interval and from YM 10,000 to YM 13,000, 30-points isn't what it used to be in percentage terms.

There were some "surprises" in the Beige Book and rather amazing the lack of focus it gets, especially from the Fed critics. While anecdotal, these are general observation that do go into the decision making process for monetary policy.

Check out Fannie Mae (FNM) $68.87 +2.13% Link and another 52-weeker in relation to loan demand, and even the MBA's report today. The Beige Book provided some comment on commercial lending/real estate market and this group has been beaten to a pulp lately. Simon Property Group (SPG) $99.86 +3.15% Link is an example and stock I had profiled puts on (but got stopped out in late April). Beige Book suggest commercial firming.

Not sure how Fed policy can impact grain prices, which starts to get more mention from Fed. Maybe the Fed could raise rates in hopes it would increase rainfall? Have bumper crop and grain prices fall? (grin)

Heck, I probably shouldn't grin, as there will certainly be a Fed critique coming regarding such a notion.

Services... mentioned slowing in trucking. Remember my mentioning of a potential "bear trap" and watch listing of YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $38.49 +0.52% Link in early May at $39, but how the stock didn't "whip around higher" like we witnessed in Continental Airlines (CAL) Link and its "bear trap" in early May (which we traded long for a nice gain)? Beige Book confirms my "YRCW isn't whipping higher like CAL," so no surprises there in my opinion.

Banking/loan demand is a focus of mine (see Monday's Market Wrap) and today's MARKET reaction and jump for the majors on Beige Book, probably triggered short covering. As MM and some evening Market Wrap readers will know, the "perma-bears" have been rather "certain" for years that higher bond yields would equate to declines in loan demand. I continue to test that, as someday it may actually come to fruition. I still remember the "Carter years" when 10% 30-year fixed was a bargain.

The one item that perplexes me is the continued strength in copper prices. After plunding to about $2.45 earlier this year, then rocketing higher to $3.75 in early May from a February low, copper up 15.7% YTD at about $3.25. Heck ... General Cable (BGC) $68.25 remains strong, and I do wish we had held from $14.00. My buddy says utility business remains strong.

So ... that my impression of what the MARKET tends to confirm, or "not confirm" (commercial real estate) in regards to the Beige Book in what I hope you'll find as an unbiased review.

Unbiased, or "honest" in that I try to tie in MARKET observations, with Fed Beige Book observations. Then put in context with Fed minutes, and of course my trade profiles, and watch list.

Remember, the MARKET is not WRONG very often (maybe 1% of the time). And when it is, or discovers that it is, it is quick to adjust (see recent bond market action.) Link

I think traders and investors alike have this concept that the MARKET doesn't care about news, or economic reports, and that it takes this "random walk." That has never been my experience. True, the MARKET is all knowing, and there's always a group that knows the "news" before it hits the wires, but that group isn't as broad some might think.

Nobody has the crystal ball. No, not even President Bush, Ben Bernanke, or Alan Greenspan. Arguably the three most powerful figures in the U.S. right now, if not the world.

I'd suggest some weekend reading of the Regional Fed Beige Book observations.

If the U.S. is a MARKET, then the regional observations can be thought of as SECTORS.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 11:51:25 PM

FED POLICY REFLECTS 1.8% CORE PCE GOAL

DJ- Recent Federal Reserve paper says Fed's behavior in response to deviations in output and inflation over past 50 years has implications on long-term inflation goal. Targets of 2.8% for CPI and 1.8% for PCE aren't far from current rates.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 11:50:19 PM

SENATE REJECTS REFINING CAPACITY PLAN

DJ- U.S. Senate rejects Sen. Inofe's legislation to streamline approval process for projects to expand or build new domestic energy facilities. Plan would have improved regulatory environment, encouraged alternative fuel development.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 11:48:16 PM

Keene ... what were that last few Bradley turn dates? You've mentioned several the past few months, but can't remember the dates.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 10:14:18 PM

I think I've got most of the bugs worked out in my computer/internet setup (I still have to deal with Cingular but that can wait a day). Here's a repeat of the setup I showed at the end of the day on Wednesday for what I expect tomorrow/Friday:

The shot up into the close came close to the Fib level where the leg up from mid day could finish and then start a 4th wave correction for much of tomorrow (sloppy choppy typical opex Thursday action) which should then be followed by the 5th wave up to finish off the A-B-C bounce from last Thursday's low: Link

The intriguing possibility here is that we could see the final high tomorrow, right in the middle of the SPX 1520-1525 zone, thereby accomplishing the bounce high on the June 14 Bradley turn date, to then be followed by a strong sell off next week. If at any time price now drops below Wednesday's mid-day low it would immediately turn the pattern bearish (the dark red price projection) but it would look better if we get the bullish (green) price projection tomorrow and then I'll be looking for where to short it.

OI Technical Staff : 6/13/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 9:54:58 PM

Some are saying USD 123.20 before the Yen bottoms. I don;t know about that, just be ready to buy some the day US markets really topple.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 9:51:36 PM

Just be very careful with currencies tonight. PPI will affect yields and the dollar. Stay away from those trades if you are not around to handle the volatility.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 8:40:39 PM

There will be no better hedge against a stock market collapse and US slowdown than buying Yen, if you are inclined to believe the stock market rally is topping out. In the meantime, it's a great scalp trade every night, just don't stay married.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 8:39:10 PM

Looking at currencies like a stock chart is useless. So anyone chasing the Yen further down on vertical counts or stochastics is going to get hurt for the simple fact that BOJ will raise rates in August. I also think the carry trade will unwind this summer. And the further rise in US yields is not a given. In that light, risk in the Yen medium term is to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 5:44:54 PM

US House Panel Approves $19B Student-Lender Subsidy Cut

Panel Bill Could Clear Way For Auctioning Of Student Loans.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 5:31:22 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 5:18:28 PM

Biiiig volume last two sessions in TLT. Over 8 million back-to-back.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 5:12:36 PM

Key Interest Rates at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 5:00:08 PM

July Unleaded (cl07n) settled up $0.0203, or +0.95% at $2.1553.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 4:59:00 PM

July Crude Oil (cl07n) settled up $0.91, or +1.39% at $66.26.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 4:58:08 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 4:49:17 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 4:36:10 PM

Forex's Econ. Calendar (updated) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 4:28:55 PM

Treasury's Semiannual Report at this Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 4:23:01 PM

The shot up into the close came close to the Fib level where we could see the leg up from mid day today finish and set up a 4th wave correction for much of tomorrow (sloppy choppy typical opex Thursday action) which should then be followed by the 5th wave up to finish off the A-B-C bounce from last Thursday's low: Link

The intriguing possibility here is that we could see the final high tomorrow, right in the middle of the SPX 1520-1525 zone, thereby accomplishing a high for the correction on the June 14 Bradley turn date, to then be followed by a strong sell off. We'll find out soon enough.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 4:25:38 PM

Per Jane/Keene's morning comments ... I think it was the +0.9 M/M increase in import prices. Consensus was +0.3% after previous +1.4%.

See 12:59:02 AM calendar.

Jim Brown : 6/13/2007 4:03:40 PM

In theory the close over these averages is a bullish confirmation but the PPI and CPI could negate that confirmation in a heartbeat. Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 4:00:03 PM

The new high as we head into the close is now short term overbought with some negative MACD divergences so we could see an early pullback tomorrow morning which should then be followed by additional rally. The initial upside target remains SPX 1520-1525 with a topside goal of 1530. If at any time now price drops below today's mid-day low it would immediately turn the pattern bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 3:56:53 PM

Bullish Verticl count on US$/Yen is 126.10. Negated if trade at 120.48.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 3:54:36 PM

Jim, I've heard the same thing. If Cingular doesn't fix this problem guess what they can do with their service and I'll be calling Sprint.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 3:52:07 PM

Little bit of Op-Ex in Monster Worldwide (MNST) $45.37 +2.11% ...

Jim Brown : 6/13/2007 3:40:53 PM

Keene, I have had several heavy users tell me that Sprint is the only way to go for wireless cards.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 3:39:30 PM

Ever try to run QCharts with dial-up? How about at a whopping 24.0 Kbps? My goodness, I'm back in the caveman days. After working with tech support today it would appear Cingular has some kind of choke on uploads through web browsers (as opposed to the port used for emails) and is the reason I can't upload charts here when connected through Cingular wireless. Wish me luck working with Cingular on that issue.

BTW, if you're ever considering a wireless internet card for your laptop, I strongly recommend you not use Cingular. I've had a lot of trouble with mine, and their tech service is worthless. Their phone service, especially for traveling, is very good. But not their wireless card.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 3:36:14 PM

Mark, I took some JPY September at 8255 for insurance. 10 tick stop. Still a night trade, not buy and hold, but if they put in a low today, it could be a ride. USD 122.63 is outrageous against the Yen.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 3:30:39 PM

ECB's Trichet: Will Closely Monitor Price Competitiveness, Unit Labor Costs

DJ- The European Central Bank will "closely monitor" developments in price competitiveness and unit labor costs, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said Wednesday.

He also called on social partners to act responsibly when agreeing on wage increases, and the ECB will deliver price stability.

"Social partners when agreeing on wage increases, national authorities when preparing their budgets or designing policies in their fields of responsibility ... they have all in mind these inflation expectations that are anchored by our monetary policy," Trichet said at Business Day 2007, organized by the Christian Democratic Union.

"They should be, and, as a matter of fact, are fully confident that we at the ECB and in the Eurosystem will deliver price stability."

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:21:30 PM

Mike and Linda you have emails coming.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 3:21:11 PM

KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 115.68 +1.34% ... more super regional and money center.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:20:57 PM

I just realized all my emails are sitting in my outbox.

Jim Brown : 6/13/2007 3:20:38 PM

Jane, Never hurts to take a profit as long as you can do it on a repeat basis.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 3:20:34 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 399.52 +1.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 3:19:43 PM

Fed's Fisher: US Bond Yield Rise Part of Global Yield Gains

DJ- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher on Wednesday downplayed the recent rise in U.S. bond yields and reiterated the central bank's main job remains keeping inflation under control.

"It's not just our yield curve that steepened," Fisher told reporters after a speech in Dallas. "Interest rates just haven't just moved in the U.S. - you have to put this in global context," he added, noting that "complex" market influences make it difficult to interpret the market's move.

"Markets come and go. Our job is dealing with expectations and inflationary impulses, and our job remains the same," Fisher said.

Fisher also said economic data released Wednesday, led by strong May retail sales data, "are strong" and help in confirming his expectation that growth will improve as the year progresses.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:19:23 PM

Jim, I am one of those fickle kind of traders and I bail once I get 12-13 ticks. So I am out.

Jim Brown : 6/13/2007 3:17:22 PM

Jane, I am with you on the ER short. The dead stop on the Dow and S&P at my 100/130 averages is a perfect opportunity for a failure. I am also short crude (QM) from $66.20. I think the inventory spike is overdone. Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:16:26 PM

Trading is not getting the top or bottom but taking chunks out of the middle.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:13:19 PM

839.10

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:13:14 PM

Target hit.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:13:03 PM

Sorry I have forgot about the ale**

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:12:45 PM

lower stop to 840.6 2 ticks at risk alert

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:12:09 PM

lower stop to 841.2

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:11:45 PM

lower stop to 841.6

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 3:10:49 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:09:03 PM

Target is 13 ticks 839.1

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 3:13:02 PM

The potential bullish pattern appears to be unfolding here, but is taking a little longer than I expected (so what else is new), and it opens up a greater likelihood that we're going to see a stronger bounce that takes us at least into the end of the week. The only thing to be aware of here is that this afternoon's leg up will achieve equality with this morning's at 1510.34 so if it leaves another 3-wave bounce it might mean we're just going to chop sideways for the rest of the week.

But for now I'm looking for this to continue to press higher into tomorrow/Friday. The SPX 5-min chart shows the pullback from this morning's high achieved two equal legs down (1498.56) and should now be into the 3rd wave up for move up from yesterday's low: Link

This updated 30-min chart now shows that leg up in progress and while it could tip back over and head lower (dark red bearish wave count), my preferred wave count is the green one showing the possibility for this rally to make it back up as high as 1530 to retest its broken trend line and tag the 78.6% retracement (which would have every bull in town yelling about what a great buying opportunity this dip was. I don't think so but we'll let price decide. Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:07:39 PM

Triggered short from 840.40 stop is 842.2

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:03:34 PM

Raise the short to 840.40.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 3:03:03 PM

Closing the AAPL long call at 6.60, +.30. Not participating. Still long SMH which is very bullish.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:02:48 PM

I am watching MO long at 70.55 but that has not triggered yet.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 3:02:05 PM

Using the jtHMA I am long MCD from 50.82 and WFC from 35.75. I was stopped on my CVS.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 3:02:05 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 3:00:37 PM

Bullish engulfing candle for SPX on a close above 1509.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 2:58:26 PM

Raise the short to 839.80. Need to stay far enough away so we do not get ticked into a short and then have it turn around on us but yet a good entry when/if we get a reversal.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 2:56:18 PM

To be more precise, bullish engulfing candle for NQ above 1931. Critical. Jim mentioned 130 ema's 30 mn, also watch 10 ema daily (pretty much the same).

Jim Brown : 6/13/2007 2:49:52 PM

The Dow and S&P have returned to those 100/130 exp averages I mentioned yesterday. It is decision time for the current bounce. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 2:47:15 PM

If NQ closes above 1930, the correction is over short term. Still PPI tomorrow, but bulls scored today when they needed to.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 2:45:32 PM

Lucky we didn't get triggered on the short!

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 2:41:16 PM

Here is a nice jtHMA setup. WFC 60 and 120 minute jtHMA charts have turned green. I have added an incremental to ensure we get a confirmation. Long WFC at 35.75. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 2:36:58 PM

SMH diamond: Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 2:36:08 PM

I shouldn't do this because I know what happens when I do.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 2:35:46 PM

OK Mike has convinced me to put another trade on. I see a short at 838.80. Stop will be 840.20

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 2:33:22 PM

Here is the jtHMA for the major indexes I watch. Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 2:29:32 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The economy continued to expand at a moderate pace in most regions of the country, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its occasional Beige Book report on the economy.

Most regions reported steady, modest growth, with few heightened worries about inflation. The report's tenor was largely in line with the current views of Fed officials.

Consumer spending and manufacturing were growing in April and May, the 12 Federal Reserve banks reported. Housing remained weak, offset partially by better conditions for commercial real estate. Inflationary pressures were present, but not getting stronger.

The anecdotal report, based on thousands of contracts around the country and produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, painted a broadly upbeat view of the economy, which was growing either at a modest pace or at a slightly faster pace in all 12 regions, compared with the last Beige Book report in late April.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 2:24:33 PM

Fed Beige Book Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 2:19:08 PM

ER hits 840.40 and is stopped in its tracks.

Tab Gilles : 6/13/2007 2:10:27 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 2:11:59 PM

Next stop is PDHs at 840.50

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 2:04:04 PM

ER to new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 2:01:32 PM

Fed Beige Book released.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 1:59:51 PM

I took an AAPL long with July 115 calls at 6.30, when AAPL hit 115.60, 23.6% off Dec lows. Target is 118. Stop is tight at 6.00. Now bid 6.90, ask 7. If you don't buy dips, you don't make money in this market. See you later.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 1:57:44 PM

Jane has the best momentum system out there and should get more credit for it.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 1:42:45 PM

About daytrades ER from Jane Fox. The way it goes is very nice and accurate, but most importent, do you have a recent track record of those trades because since I follow a few days now, results are not that good.

Actually I have been having some success with my daytrades of late and I wanted to share that success with you all but this tells me my success is not what you need so I guess I should not have been so bold as to think my success could be translated to the Monitor.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 1:40:07 PM

Ya gotta love that VIX!! Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 1:34:53 PM

European Indexes

London's FTSE-100 Link was up 39 points, or +0.60% at 6,559.

Germany's DAX ($DAX) Link edged higher by 2.5 points, or +0.03% to 7,680.

France's CAC-40 ($CAC) Link gained 36 points, or +0.61% to 5,934.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 1:33:12 PM

VIX is telling me ES's daily lows will hold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 1:30:04 PM

Asian Markets:

Japan's Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link finished down 28 points, or -0.16% at 17,732.

China's Shanhai ($SSEC) Link closed up 104 points, or +2.56% at 4,176.

Hang Seng ($HSI) was off 57 points, or -0.28% at 20,578.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 1:29:57 PM

I've been struggling all morning getting computers connected to the internet and to each other and limping along here. I'm going to have to power down everything and try to start all over. Be back in a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 1:23:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Option Price quotes may not be accurate.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 1:17:32 PM

Hit our target

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 1:14:07 PM

WE have 5 ticks at risk now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 1:13:34 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 1:11:54 PM

target is 834.70 - 12 ticks = 833.5

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 1:09:13 PM

stop to 835.20 alert

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 1:04:09 PM

I will lower the stop once the trade moves into profit. alert

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 1:02:37 PM

Stop is 836.2

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 1:01:49 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 1:01:13 PM

short at 834.70

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:53:53 PM

CROX $90.00 ... What its PnF chart would look like after 2:1 split Link

Multiply box by 2. $90 becomes 45 on $1 box.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 12:50:24 PM

The weekly DOW chart shows the Fib projection for two equal legs up from the October 2002 low at 13712.60 which it missed by 20 points at last week's high. It was certainly close enough and with the turn back down after what appears to be a clean 5-wave move up from October 2005 the longer term pattern is bearish. Link

I'm still hoping for a bigger bounce to give us a larger 3-wave bounce correction to last week's decline, and it still could. The critical level is last Thursday's low--as long as we continue to chop lower then another rally leg up is possible. Finding the bottom of this pullback is proving difficult. Here's the update on the SPX chart, 30-min: Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:49:52 PM

If triggered stop is 836.2 and target is 13 ticks. No let's change that to 12 ticks today.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:48:56 PM

Alert short at 834.7.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:43:18 PM

If you left the long at 835.70 you have your 13 ticks. :)

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:37:14 PM

Reminder: CROX is set to split 2:1 on Friday.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:29:00 PM

The long at 835.70 is now off the table - alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:25:28 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in the IWM (per 10:27:27 AM post)

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:24:01 PM

This slow consolidation is setting us up for a nice move. You just never know when it will make that move.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:20:57 PM

ER cannot break the resistance at 835.50 so our long sits at 835.70

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:17:27 PM

This chart is not good for us Goldbugs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:16:28 PM

Target on the CROX is $85 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:15:56 PM

Swing trade put alert ... for one (1) of the CROX, Inc. CROX July $90 Puts (CQJ-SQ) at the offer of $3.90.

CROX $89.45 -1.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 12:10:06 PM

BOC's Dodge: Some Upward Pressure On C$ From Corporate M&A

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:09:44 PM

I will give the long at 835.70 another 15 minutes to trigger then I will take it off the table.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:08:14 PM

I just heard that the ale** I used did indeed work.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:04:51 PM

If triggered long the stop will be 833.80

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:05:53 PM

I had a request to use the alert don't know if it worked though.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 12:03:35 PM

Alert I will take ER long at 835.70.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 11:59:06 AM

It's been a real struggle for the bulls to get this going. After the bounce off that last low before 11:30 AM this now needs to hold (so pull your stop just below that low if you got long). Any further drop will turn a lot more bearish even if all it does is consolidate for a bit more first.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 11:53:18 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed Wednesday, recovering from a low under $650 an ounce as gains in oil prices helped renew concerns about inflation, staving off pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar.

Gold for August delivery climbed by $1.90 to $655 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It had fallen to $649.30 earlier in the session.

"Inflation fears" have driven the metal's price higher, according to Kevin Kerr, editor of Global Resources Trader, a newsletter of MarketWatch, the publisher of this report.

"With food and energy prices on the rise, inflation is going to come into play there, and all of this other talk is wishful thinking or a form of denial," he said in e-mailed comments.

"Gold is still well below where it should be and that's because of the pervasive strength of the dollar and ongoing good news like retail sales," he said. The "real number" to look at will be Friday's PPI, he said.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 11:44:32 AM

Gold finds support at its 200EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 11:39:51 AM

Even though the internals are bullish the bulls seem to be fighting for their life today.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 11:38:48 AM

So far the bounce is looking less than inspiring for bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 11:36:21 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 11:32:32 AM

Force Protection (FRPT) $25.17 +5.53% ... confirms it joins Russell 3000 Index.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 11:27:32 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $117.50 -2.37% ... gets action.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 11:26:05 AM

This is a good shakeout if that's what it is. Low risk entry here to try a long, stop at a new daily low.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 11:25:18 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 11:07:25 AM

11:05 Market Watch at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 11:07:07 AM

Consolidating at daily highs tells me we will see higher highs before lower lows. It feels like this market is just about to take off.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 11:00:46 AM

Either a shakeout move back down or else we'll get a deeper and larger corrective pullback. But so far I still like what I see for more upside today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 10:55:17 AM

December Heating Oil (ho07z) up a penny at $2.04.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 10:54:22 AM

Heating Oil was down 2.79 million barrels. Now down 33.28%, or 15.7 million barrels from this time last year.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 10:53:39 AM

SPR was unchanged at 690,270

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 10:53:26 AM

So far we've got a little 3-wave pullback so any continuation higher from here should become a good rally. Long is the place to be today--buy pullbacks.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 10:51:20 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs, Crude Oil Inputs, Refinery Operable Capacity, Pct. Utilization and # Days Supply of Crude at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 10:40:41 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil, Total Gasoline, Reform. Gasoline, Total Distillate, Diesel and Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 10:29:50 AM

Swing trade establish stop alert ... on the four (4) IOW-GE should the RUT.X trade 815.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 10:27:27 AM

Swing trade bullish call alert ... for two (2) of the IOW-GE at the offer of $1.58.

IWM $82.28 +0.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 10:23:57 AM

June-Dec'07 Fed Fund futures at this Link

QCharts' symbol prefix is CBOT:

100 - 94.75 = 5.25%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 10:08:30 AM

10:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/13/2007 10:01:22 AM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $35.32 +2.94% ... released for trade.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 9:55:30 AM

You don't want to be short here folks. Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 9:29:50 AM

I'm trying the dial-up service to upload charts. Here's this morning's updated TNX chart showing just before this morning's jump in bonds (drop in yields), which was right on cue after hitting its Fib target: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/13/2007 9:25:06 AM

NQ holds 1912 (monthly pivot) and Armmagedon does not appear. But more importantly, the DOW holds trendline at 13285. Watch that level. The Yen trade was brief, I got out at 826, thankfully. Big drop there. A reminder that currencies are a trade, not a an investment. One day the carry trade will unwind, but obviously, they are not done pushing stocks up. Too many bears. See you later, be safe.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 9:14:53 AM

With futures up strong at this point I'd say we'll certainly have a bullish start to the day. The next leg up looks like an excellent possibility at this point. SPX 1521/DOW 13524 here we come (and then get shorty).

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 9:13:01 AM

Midcaps are caught between the 20 and 50EMA just like the SPX but above the upward trendline whereas the SPX is below its trendline. Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 9:10:49 AM

If you only look at the charts of the American indexes you get the impression support will break and we are going to see further downside before we retest yearly highs. But then the chart of the DAX is telling us a different story altogether. This chart suggests this market has a higher chance of closing above its 20EMA before it breaks its blue trendline support. Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 9:03:33 AM

Now here is where things get really interesting, the SPX has already broken it blue trendline and is stuck between the 20EMA and the 50EMA. As a matter of fact the SPX is now using its upward trendline as resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 9:00:28 AM

If I had only this chart I would say the blue trendline will break and we will get a close below it even as earlier as this week. But then I have to factor in the bullishness we have seen over the last few months and I am certainly not willing to discount it and say the tide has turned. Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 8:57:42 AM

Dow is stuck between its magenta 20EMA and the upward blue trendline. Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 8:56:14 AM

I think the daily charts are very interesting now. That blue trendline that I have drawn on all major indexes from late last year is proving to be a very important trendline and if I see a close below this trendline I will be stepping aside on my bullishness and move into a wait and see mode. Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 8:56:14 AM

That was weird Jane--a real delayed response to the retail sales data.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 8:51:46 AM

The DAX is supporting the move in the American equity markets with new OH highs.

I see Gold to new OH highs as well so I am suspecting the $ (which is on a 20 minute delay) is almost to its ON lows.

Crude did not make much of a move during the OH session. Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 8:48:41 AM

Retail sales were up 1.4% and I thought that was the report that made the market fall but who knows.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 8:47:43 AM

Keene the retail sales and Import prices just came out.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 8:47:03 AM

And then just like that traders changed their minds and have now brought prices to new ON highs. Link

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 8:44:44 AM

Something bullish just happened--equity and bond futures just shot higher.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 8:43:02 AM

Equity markets did not like the 1.4% jump in retail sales, the biggest gain in months. Although traders "should" see this report is showing us that consumers are regaining a footing, they obviously are much more worried about inflation. Link

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 8:36:08 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures extended their prior-session losses early Wednesday, as the dollar rose against other major currencies, dampening demand for the precious metal. Gold for August delivery fell $2.40 to $650.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July silver declined 12.0 cents to $12.970 an ounce, July platinum fell $24.40 to $1,272.0 an ounce and September palladium shed $4.85 to $368.0 an ounce. July copper fell 2.60 cents to $3.2610 a pound.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 8:35:40 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose 0.9% in May, as imported petroleum prices climbed 2.7%, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Excluding petroleum, the gain in import prices was 0.5%, the largest increase since November 2006. Import prices have increased by 1.1% in the past 12 months. April's prices were revised slightly upward, to climb by 1.4%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting import prices to rise by 0.2% in May.

Jane Fox : 6/13/2007 8:35:01 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales rose by 1.4% in May, the largest seasonally adjusted gain in 16 months, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Sales rose for all categories of spending, from gasoline and autos to building supplies and clothing.

The gains were much better than expected by economists on Wall Street, who were looking for a 0.7% increase. Reports by automakers and retail chain stores were much softer than the government's data showed, perhaps because of differences in the way the two sources seasonally adjust the data.

The report should reassure markets and policymakers that consumers are regaining their footing after a very weak start to the spring. Economists had thought consumers would slow their pace of spending in the second quarter in the face of much higher gasoline prices.

April's sales were revised higher by a tenth to a 0.1% decline.

Inflation accounted for much of the sales gain in May, but by no means all of it. Gasoline sales rose 3.8%, driven by record prices at the pump. Sales excluding gas rose 1.2%. Gas prices are expected to ease slightly, but remain above $3 a gallon for the remainder of the summer, the Energy Department estimated Tuesday

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 8:35:51 AM

Looks like one chart is all I get this morning. I was going to post a daily chart of TNX to show that this morning's move higher has now reached the Fib projection zone that I've been showing at 52.85-53.00 so bond bears beware--we could see a larger pullback in yields (rally in bonds). If rates continue much higher than this morning's 53.14 high then the next Fib projection is at 54.12 (where the 5th and 1st waves in the move up from May's low become equal).

The daily and weekly charts I posted Sunday night would now be updated to show the push up to the Fib level. Assuming we top out for now, after a sideways/down consolidation over the next couple of weeks we should see rates then continue higher again.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 8:20:33 AM

Every once in a while I can get a chart uploaded so that SPX chart I just posted is one from yesterday's close and shows what I was talking about in the post below (10:33 PM). With futures up this morning we'll see if we get the start of the bounce. The bulls need to get some buying going this morning otherwise they could lose their turn at the dinner table for a while.

Keene Little : 6/13/2007 8:17:21 AM

SPX 60-min chart (test): Link

Market Monitor Archives