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Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2007 1:14:00 AM

SPX NH/NL finished 49:1

RUT NH/NL finished 86:12

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 11:33:10 PM

The 4 indices appear to be in synch here. I'm looking for a quick decline Friday morning followed by a reversal to a minor high which will set up the shorting opportunity:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/14/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 5:59:53 PM

Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 5:35:57 PM

July Unleaded (cl07n) settled up $0.0694, or +3.22% at $2.2247.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 5:35:04 PM

July Crude Oil (cl07n) settled up $1.39, or +2.10% at $67.65.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 5:33:58 PM

July Heating Oil (ho07n) settled up $0.0901, or +4.68% at $2.0161. (see yesterday's MM and December Heating Oil)

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 5:31:51 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

OIX.X and OIH close at new 52-weekers!

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 5:11:29 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 4:53:09 PM

Stock prices and bond yields

Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models? Link

Mentioning of 1987 (see 11:56:59 AM)

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 4:39:46 PM

S&P Price/Earnings Ratio at 17.27

DJ- The price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the close of trading Thursday was 17.27.

On Wednesday, the ratio ended at 17.19.

The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 measures the index's closing level divided by the index's total earnings, as reported under generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, for the most recent year.

In 2006, the most recently reported year, S&P 500 companies reported earnings of $88.18 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 4:28:20 PM

Hey Keene! Check out the NH/NL table in relation to the Bradley turn dates you gave us.

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 4:19:59 PM

The DOW's pattern gives me the impression that this afternoon's bounce was just wave-b in an a-b-c pullback from this morning's high. That means a sharp move down tomorrow morning to be followed by another rally leg for the 5th wave in the move up from Tuesday, with an upside target near 13600. Then it'll be MOAP time.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 4:16:48 PM

I think SPX/SPY bulls want to see at least 40 new highs. No more than 5 new lows.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 4:14:08 PM

I think RUT/IWM bulls want to see at least 60 new highs today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 4:12:38 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $152.84 +0.62% ...

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 3:59:09 PM

OK, heading into the close I see a high likelihood of spiking down tomorrow morning. Whatever the CPI data is the market will react negatively. But then the bigger question is whether this afternoon's high marked the high for the bounce or whether the spike down tomorrow morning will be followed by another rally leg back up the SPX 1530 area (springing a bear trap).

I'm leaning towards the latter scenario but from a wave pattern perspective understand the risk here is that the bounce just finished (SPX is now breaking its little ascending wedge I showed on the 3-min chart) and tomorrow will start a strong sell off. The Bradley turn date will have nailed the day if that happens.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 3:55:53 PM

Stopped at 844.30 dang it

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 3:51:50 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert on the 1/2 position in Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $38.75

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 3:49:11 PM

I'm getting more and more of an ending diagonal 5th wave feeling about this move. This 60-min chart is one I'm preparing for tonight's Wrap. Look at the way it chopped higher into the June 4th high (highlighted in yellow on the left side of the chart) and compare to today's action. Link

It looks like a fractal and in the bearish EW count this could be setting up the exact same topping pattern. Especially with the CPI data coming out tomorrow morning I've got to wonder if we aren't seeing the same setup. Definitely worth a few put options as we head into the close.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 3:36:52 PM

As long as we don't get "stopped in the chop" I think we will have a winnder here.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 3:35:42 PM

Looks like the market has not quite finished its consolidating even though the VIX is making new daily lows, the AD volume is making new daily highs and TRIN is making new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 3:25:05 PM

Target on the long from 846.20 is 847.50, 13 ticks.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 3:23:51 PM

TRIN making new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 3:22:22 PM

Like to see VIX at session lows when long.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 3:22:01 PM

Triggered long at 846.20 stop is 844.30 initially until I can get it moved up.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 3:21:23 PM

VIX.X alert! 13.60 ... session lows.

SPX 1,524.47

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 3:21:18 PM

I will be long ER at 846.20 alert

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 3:20:52 PM

Without trying to complicate things here, it's possible that today could see the end of the rally. The markettells data and the preferred EW pattern suggests we'll get another leg down to complete today's sideways consolidation followed by another rally leg higher. But if the market chops higher in an ascending wedge as depicted on this SPX 3-min chart, then it's possible we're putting in the final 5th wave this afternoon (as an ending diagonal). It could even end up as a truncated 5th (lower high) which is not that uncommon. Link

This is the tricky spot--do we short it at a retest of today's high or do we wait for the pullback to finish and a new high? With the markettells data I'm leaning towards the pullback/new high scenario but I could be tempted to take a few puts home with me tonight just in case the market tanks tomorrow morning. If we get the pullback and a new high I'll add to my position and then stop out of the whole thing with a rally above 1530. Your call as to how you'd like to play it from here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 3:12:25 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 3:02:04 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:58:07 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish and bearish positions in ACH.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 2:57:23 PM

Needless to say the long is off the table.

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 2:52:52 PM

Tracking the progress of the 4th wave shuffle today, we could see a bounce back up to retest this morning's high before getting a sharp decline to finish the a-b-c pullback from this morning's high. It might even happen on tomorrow's CPI data (the end of corrections like this are often news related). Link

I was asked why I want to see SPX 1517 for the pullback. It has to do with the projection for the next leg (5th wave) up. I'd like to see equality with the 1st wave (which is the first leg up off Tuesday's low) and projecting from just under 1517 would give me an upside projection of 1529, right on top of the 78.6% retracement.

This 78.6% retracement is the "line in the sand" as far as retracements go--any more than that and we'll likely see a continuation higher to new highs. But it's also been a common retracement for 2nd wave corrections--strong moves to suck the bulls in, spit the bears out and then reverse hard down. So that's my hope for tomorrow (not the suck and spit part, just the pattern). Now we watch...

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:49:35 PM

Bullish day trade long alert for 1/2 position in Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $39.08 here. Stop $38.75, target $39.49.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 2:42:23 PM

Long ER at 847.20

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:44:13 PM

Brazil Markets Look To Easing Rates, But Doubts Linger

DJ (partial) - Brazil's markets reacted positively Thursday to the morning release of the minutes from the central bank's last interest rate meeting. But some analysts had doubts about whether the language in the document signaled continued deepening of interest rate easing at coming monetary policy meetings.

In the minutes, the bank said the influence of incoming trade and investment flows in maintaining the strength of an appreciated local currency implied continued mild inflation expectations and prompted it to return to a half-percentage-point interest rate cut after opting for quarter-point cuts at its previous three meetings.

At its June 6 meeting, the bank cut the reference Selic interest rate to 12.0% annually, the lowest level on record since 1996. Citing economic data and conditions "at this moment," the bank's accumulated rate easing amounted to 7.75 percentage points since September 2005.

Investors in the local markets celebrated the moderate tone of the meeting minutes, pushing the Bovespa stocks index up Thursday more than 1% to a record intraday high of 53,574 points, and bidding up the local real currency more than half a percentage point to BRL1.932 per dollar. Rates on the country's most liquid domestic futures contract, January 2010, fell to 10.42% from 10.49% at Wednesday close.

Brazil's 2040 global bond rose 1/4 to 130 13/16 bid, according to Reuters, though emerging market bond prices were generally up across the board.

In the minutes, rate committee members said they considered maintaining a quarter point pace of cuts in the face of increasingly robust domestic demand, but the majority on the committee decided that favorable foreign investment and trade conditions would help offset the threat of rising prices.

"The majority on the committee argued that the contribution of the external sector for the consolidation of a benign inflation outlook within the horizon of projections could be greater than initially imagined, especially considering the discipline exercised on prices of tradable goods and by way of increasing investments, in an environment of heated demand," the committee said.

Five of seven members voted for the half-point cut.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 2:33:30 PM

These charts were instrumental in my decision to lower the stop to the 845.30 and I am very glad I did. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:30:15 PM

DJ- Hamas: Forces Take Fatah - Run National Police HQ in Gaza City

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:28:37 PM

Palestinian President Abbas Dismisses Hamas's Haniyeh As PM

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:27:08 PM

Palestinian President Abbas Declares State Of Emergency

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 2:25:31 PM

A little more data from Markettells--after a 4:1 positive breadth day (Wednesday) the market has a 78% chance of seeing a higher level two days later (that compares to a 54% chance normally). So the data suggests a pause on Thursday followed by more rally on Friday. It's a perfect description of what I see from an EW perspective.

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 2:21:46 PM

One thought that supports the idea that we could see a drop into the close to get us back to flat on the day is the Markettells data that shows it to be a higher-odds scenario for the day. There have been only 6 occurrences since 1990 where the market experienced a strong negative breadth session (identified as one that is at least 3:1 in favor of declining issues) followed by an equally or stronger positive breadth day (or vice versa).

Tuesday had 6:1 negative breadth and Wednesday had 4:1 positive breadth. In each of the 6 prior cases the following day (today) was flat, or as the markettells author, Rainford Yang, says, "the market took a breather the following session." So we'll see if history follows through on this pattern today. It fits from an EW perspective where I'm looking for a 4th wave pullback today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 2:19:50 PM

Sony Ericsson Unveils High-End Phones Ahead of iPhone Launch

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 2:14:01 PM

And stopped at 845.30.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 2:10:06 PM

That is 10 ticks at risk now.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 2:09:50 PM

Ok one more move stop to 845.30. AD volume to new daily highs again. alert

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 2:08:20 PM

We got to 6 ticks profit which is enough to lower your stop a tad but you still have to be careful you don't lower it too much and get stopped out in noise.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 2:05:05 PM

We could very easily still take a loss but in any case this has been a very interesting trade.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 2:03:44 PM

Sometimes you are the windshield and sometimes the bug.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 2:03:09 PM

Oh my gosh and now we are into profit on this short. Lower stop to 845.7 - alert

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 2:02:24 PM

The monthly jtHMA chart of Crude is still red so I will not be long USO until I see it turn green. I also see some resistance on the weekly crude chart at 68.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:56:51 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $51.07 +1.95% Link ... session high has been $51.25.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 1:55:59 PM

Too funny. Our short from 844.30 had a stop at 846.20 and we got to 846.00 and sold off. Far from out of the woods yet but geesh!!!

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:54:04 PM

WKLY Momentum shifts positive.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:53:44 PM

Good eye Jane! On the July contract, that's a triple top buy signal above trend.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 1:49:46 PM

And there goes Oil above $67.00 and it breaks through its resistance. Link

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 1:46:03 PM

The sideways shuffle since this morning's high is looking like a nice 4th wave consolidation. Everything remains on track for another high out of this. Still hoping to see SPX pull back near 1517 into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:44:37 PM

OPEC To Maintain Current 30M B/D Output Level

DJ- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Thursday that there was no need for the group to inject further oil supplies into the market in the face of rising demand, an implicit rebuke to the International Energy Agency's call this week for urgent new supplies from the group.

In an unusual statement well ahead of its formal policy meeting Sept. 11 in Vienna, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri said 12-member OPEC, which currently meets 35% of the world's oil consumption, would maintain its daily output of 30 million barrels a day.

"However, considerable uncertainties continue to surround world oil demand and demand for OPEC oil," he added.

"But a combination of current high inventory levels and increasing OPEC spare capacity, which is expected to reach around 15% in the second half of this year, means there are adequate supplies available to cope with any upward revisions to oil demand forecasts."

In the statement, El-Badri continued, "OPEC notes oil markets remain well supplied and market fundamentals do not require any additional supply from the Organization at this time."

"OPEC will continue to monitor developments and is prepared to help mitigate any tightness which may emerge at any future stage," he added.

Without identifying the International Energy Agency directly, the producer group's statement appears to be a response to this week's hard-hitting report by the agency that warned of the prospect of a world oil supply deficit this year due to record demand, rising project delays and a reluctance by OPEC to ship more crude over the summer.

The IEA Tuesday raised its estimated daily need for OPEC's oil this year by half a million barrels to 31 million barrels, and expressed concern about its ability to offset demand with planned capacity expansions by the end of this year of just 700,000 barrels.

With the need for OPEC crude this year set to climb 2.5 million barrels a day, the challenge to OPEC "would appear to be a key impending market dynamic," the agency said.

"We need an awful lot more crude," IEA supply expert David Fyfe said at the time. "To us, the balance looks particularly stark at the moment."

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:37:50 PM

30-year ($TYX.X) 5.290% ... 61.8% "dynamic" at 5.295. 38.2% at 5.275%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:36:24 PM

BIX.X 399.86 -0.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:36:06 PM

RUT.X 836.68 +0.49% ... DAILY R1 and WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 1:35:43 PM

Short at 844.30 with a stop at 846.20 until I can lower it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:34:40 PM

NYSE a/d 2,090:1,131

NASD a/d 1,793:1,143

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:33:46 PM


DJ- Service sector revenues fall 1.4% to $924.83 billion in 1Q as revenues decline in three of four sector categories measured by the Quarterly Services Survey. Information category falls 4.3% to an estimated $271.1 billion.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 1:32:30 PM

My stop will be initially at 846.20.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:32:24 PM


DJ- Wall Street Journal will raise its weekday newsstand price by 50% to $1.50 starting July 16. The increase doesn't include the subscription price, which means that more than 90% of the newspaper's buyers won't be affected.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 1:31:59 PM

I will be taking ER short at 844.30 - alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:31:23 PM


DJ- U.S. Energy Information Administration chief Guy Caruso tells a Senate panel gasoline inventories likely to be tight this summer, meaning higher gas prices than last year. Average gasoline price for summer projected at $3.05 a gallon.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:30:56 PM


DJ- Mortgage-finance giant posts loss of $211 million, or 46c a share, compared with a year-earlier profit of $2 billion, on losses in derivatives and a rise in credit-related expenses. Total revenue drops to $424 million from $2.48 billion.

FRE $65.51 -0.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:29:12 PM

July Unleaded (rb07n) $2.21 +2.31% and has traded $2.22. Updated PnF with today's action at this Link

The "pink dots" are just the 45-degree trend that I place on the chart. Only becomes trend if the bullish support (red dots) were ever to be violated.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:20:53 PM

Those Hartford July $95 Puts (HIG-SS) are now $0.40 x $0.50.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:14:41 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 1:11:33 PM

After seeing Marc's post on INTC I took a look at its chart and I agree with him that it looks like more upside on that stock. First resistance I see is at 24.00 where there's a Fib projection and the top of a parallel up-channel from June 2006.

But if the bulls can keep it going above that level (assuming it even gets there) then the next Fib projection is at 24.50 for two equal legs up from June 2006 and then 25.68 for two equal legs up from March. That upper Fib target would have INTC closing its gap from January 17, 2006 at 25.54. But the bulls better keep this going otherwise a double top with clear bearish divergence is the current threat. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 1:03:13 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 12:57:31 PM

That would have been a good one Marc. Sometimes its best to take a small profit, in fear of a loss. When its real money at risk, it is a different game. The key with options is to NOT overleverage. That's when the "fear" sets in.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 12:52:34 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Have been stopped on the QID at $46.50.

Went long partial 100 shares of Aluminum Corp. China (ACH), will holt ACH-WF as some protection near-term. Not sure when next dividend date is.

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 12:49:57 PM

If I could put in my order for how I'd like to see the SPX play out over the next day or so, this is how I'd like to see it move (30-min chart): Link

A pullback to just under 1517 by this afternoon would then set up the 5th wave up for the rally leg from Tuesday's low. That would then finish the A-B-C bounce off last Friday's 1487 low and be the MOAP setup (mother of all puts). Then if it pulls back correctively again and heads for a new high you'll want to switch sides and get long for a run up to new all-time highs. It would be a realtively simple trading plan with tight stops.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/14/2007 12:44:53 PM

Now that is one I should have held lomger, Jeff. But you can't win em all. (I was in at 6.30, but bailed yesterday for a minor profit).

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 12:40:21 PM

Apple July $115 (QAA-GC) are $7.90 x $8.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/14/2007 12:36:27 PM

Actually, be safe it the WORST advice you can give a trader. Trading is about ignoring the emotions in you, greed or fear.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/14/2007 12:35:13 PM

INTC is going to get 25 soon (see my post a few days ago). That was the easiest trade I have done all year. Load up at 21.50. See you later, be safe. but not TOO safe.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 12:34:30 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $118.41 +0.77% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 6/14/2007 12:33:57 PM

NDX 1925 is max pain. By the way, gold is bullish if yields can stay under 52.25.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 12:33:36 PM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table at this Link ... Build of 92 Bcf.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/14/2007 12:33:04 PM

ES 1542 is gap open 6/11 and resistance. Anyone who believed in Armageddon and did not buy this pullback missed out on a fortune in gains, once again. No matter how short you think you should be, it would take you months to make back what you missed out on this year. Moral of the story? Trade what you see however insane it looks. The prime mover in markets is trading off the disbelief of average traders. Only when that has disappeared will we put in a lasting top.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 12:24:28 PM

Hmmm... is right Keene. The last recession started with a rally in bonds. One that will go down in history for sure.

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 11:56:59 AM

I was reading an interesting article in which the author was pointing out that the rally in bonds in 1987 ended about six months before the market crashed in October of that year. Our bond rally either ended in December '06 or March '07 depending upon where you start counting. Six months would either put us in June or September if history repeats.

Thanks John. Bonds actually peaked in December 2006. Hmm...

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 11:42:51 AM

Treasuries choppy today, but look to be digesting recent session volatility.

Day traders might want to start calibrating WEEKLY/DAILY Pivots as well as intra-day dynamics.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 11:34:37 AM

And the IWM charts. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 11:33:28 AM

Here are the WFC charts. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 11:31:55 AM

And the SPX charts. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 11:31:17 AM

Here are the DOW charts. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 11:30:08 AM

Those charts also have given me a DOW long at 13475 and SPX long at 1515.53.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 11:28:37 AM

Using the jtHMA charts I am long MCD from 50.82, WFC from 35.75 and I just added IWM at 83.33 today. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 11:22:05 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 11:19:50 AM

SPX is leaving a bearish shooting star on the 30-min and 60-min charts at that broken trend line. We may have seen the high for the day and now start the sideways/down consolidation.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 11:18:48 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: It would take a closing measure of 42.00% for the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse/turn higher.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 11:07:00 AM

Keene! ... Thanks for Bradley turn dates. Pivot traders will find useful for backtesting.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 11:02:50 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:53:39 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $137.05 +0.95% ... breaks free of our 38.2% bullish vertical count retracement ($135.70). WEEKLY R1 ($137.21) here.

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 10:51:51 AM

Here's the updated RUT 60-min chart showing the potential to rally up to the Fib resistance level of 844. It too would look better with a small pullback before getting up to there. Link

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 10:45:07 AM

I had the trend line along the lows since May 1st in the wrong place on the SPX chart I last posted. SPX is now hitting that broken trend line near 1526.30: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:44:48 AM

European Markets at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:43:55 AM

General Motors (GM) $33.03 +2.89% ... sticks its head above 3.5 month resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:38:15 AM

Dow Jones (DJ) $57.74 -2.01% .... gets some action.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:36:10 AM

Bear trap alert on the Russell 2000 ($RUT.X) 840.00 +0.90% ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:31:13 AM

Asian Markets $SSEC, $HSI and $NIKK Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 10:29:22 AM

AD line and volume are very bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:28:28 AM

Crocs (CROX) $89.14 -1.95% ... challenges yesterday's lows and DAILY S1.

DAILY S2 at $87.10 with WEEKLY Pivot $85.33.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:26:23 AM

S&P Insurance Index ($IUX.X) 414.65 +0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:25:55 AM

KBW Bank Index (BIX.X) 116.28 +0.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:25:34 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 401.51 +0.03% ...

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 10:25:09 AM

Internals very bullish this morning. Does not mean you can't get a reversal play but they are scary. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:24:43 AM

50-day SMA alert ... Hartford Financial (HIG) $101.53 +0.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:21:59 AM

June-Dec'07 Fed fund futures all 94.75.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:15:28 AM

Asian Markets

Japan's Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link ... was up 109 points, or +0.62% at 17,842.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:13:27 AM

NASDAQ a/d 1807:855

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:13:14 AM

NYSE a/d 2198:739

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 10:10:13 AM

We got a bit more of a rally this morning than I expected to see. But it's a good place for SPX to stall out now--right up against its broken uptrend line along the lows from May 1st and 62% retracement of last week's decline(1522.23). The leg up from Tuesday would still look better with a pullback and then another minor high (the 1530 area is looking better and better), so it's possible we'll see this hold up into tomorrow. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:04:43 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 10:03:15 AM

Swing trade long triggered alert ... for 100 shares of ACH $38.40.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 9:59:50 AM

Swing trade bearish stop alert on the QID at $$46.50 -1.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 9:57:31 AM

General Motors (GM) $32.55 +1.40% ... reclaims the $32.50 strike. I've seen enough to know I've seen too much!

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 9:55:41 AM

Amerco (UHAL) $82.62 +3.5% ... retraces 50% of its April'06 high close to recent March'07 low close. (see 6/07/07 MM)

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 9:56:12 AM

Since my last update on CME on June 4th ( Link ) it rallied a little higher and ran into resistance at its broken uptrend line from August 2006 and just a bit above the 555.41 Fib target for two equal legs up from May: Link

The bearish wave count says CME has seen the high for its bounce and now there will be a strong decline to follow. A short on CME against Monday's 560.25 high would be a good play here. If it turns around and rallies higher then I'd say the bullish wave count was in play.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 9:47:12 AM

Bullish swing trade long setup alert ... for 100 shares of Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $38.27 +7.50% ... should they trade $38.40.

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 9:41:33 AM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $38.16 +7.19% ... Goldman Sachs upgraded. Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 9:39:49 AM

Upgrading ACH to a "hold" from "sell"

Jeff Bailey : 6/14/2007 9:37:44 AM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $38.57 +8.34% ... surges to new 52-weeker. What the heck is going on in China?

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 9:28:48 AM

Just keep in mind that if we get a 4th wave correction today, as depicted on my charts for the leg up from Tuesday's low, it could last well into this afternoon and it's not the wave you want to trade--too much chop and whipsaw potential. Or maybe that's me giving myself permission to stare out the window today instead.

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 9:20:08 AM

I changed that gold chart to better reflect the longer term wave count and the downside Fib projection at 514. I'd be more than happy to cover my short there instead of 500.

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 9:19:04 AM

Jane, not if you're short gold (your 9:06) ;-)

I'm hoping to cover my short around 500 before looking for the long term buying opportunity. I just wish it would hurry up and drop--it's making me nervous by chopping around the same level. Weekly chart of the gold contract (August): Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 9:17:58 AM

Keene, I moved to the sidelines when Gold started to turn but never did short it. That would have been a very nice trade for sure. Sometimes our biases do get in the way.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 9:16:09 AM

One last chart, the US$. The formation I thought could be a bear flag was not but is turning into a reversal pattern and is the reason the Gold chart is as bearish as it is. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 9:11:41 AM

Bonds are in really sad shape and I see nothing here to tell me things are going to change in the near future. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 9:09:46 AM

Ok will crude break and sustain the break above $67 this time? Those higher lows are telling me yes but the MACD is not sure. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 9:06:56 AM

All I can say here is :( Link

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 9:06:45 AM

This DOW 60-min chart update shows the bearish wave count (for an a-b-c corrective bounce off last week's low) with the Fibs and broken uptrend line defining a potential resistance zone between 13512 and 13550: Link If it were to rally much above that, especially above a 78.6% retracement at 13600, then I'd be giving the bullish wave count a much higher probability. Until that happens I think the end of the current leg up will be a great shorting opportunity for wave-3 down next week.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 9:05:39 AM

I truly thought the bears had enough momentum built up to bring the market down further this week and maybe into next week but while the American markets were all testing support, the DAX was not. So it was this chart that had me wondering about that opinion. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:59:50 AM

Here is the chart of the Wilshire 5000, looks a lot like the SPX chart doesn't it? Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:58:04 AM

Interestingly the SPX did break that blue trendline but has now closed above it and the 20EMA so the bulls have told us who is the boss. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:56:16 AM

And another. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:54:57 AM

Another blue trendline that remains intact. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:53:11 AM

This chart pretty well speaks for itself; the blue upward trendline is the line in the sand between bullish and bearish although I would be watching that magenta 20EMA, bulls want to see a close above this MA. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:54:00 AM

Keene, I may complain a lot about getting up early but I do really like my afternoons off. I could not imagine how I would get everything done that I needed to do if I had to work to 4:00 or so (smile)

I to love the commute and I must admit I love the job I commute to as well.

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 8:47:31 AM

Jane, I definitely have to switch my habits of when I do things in the eastern time zone. Actually my favorite time zone is mountain--I can get up an hour later and still have most of the afternoon after the market closes. Eastern time chews up most of the day by the time the market closes and I've caught up on some reading/chart prep. But no matter what, I still like my commute. And now that commute means sitting down by the windows at the top of our boat house that overlooks the islands in the St. Lawrence River. I sometimes forget to watch the market (wink).

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:44:07 AM

Gold was weak again overnight. This commodity has certainly had a rough time of late and until I see some reason to be long I will be on the sidelines.

Crude is edging back to the $67 resistance and I think it will break it this time.

The jump in the DAX is due to the Eurex rollover. Link

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:37:11 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- With employees notified that their company is on the block, industry observers said Rydex Investments could soon unveil a deal to sell the mutual fund and exchange-traded fund pioneer for a price tag approaching $1 billion.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:35:14 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time filings for state unemployment benefits were unchanged in the week ending June 9 at 311,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The four-week moving average of new claims - which smoothes out distortions caused by one-time events such as weather or holidays - rose by 3,750 to 311,250, a five-week high.

Labor markets remain healthy, the data show. Meanwhile, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell by 43,000 to 2.487 million in the week ending June 2. The four-week average of continuing claims rose by 4,000 to 2.501 million.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:34:13 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Led by another big gain in energy prices, wholesale prices rose a greater-than-expected 0.9% in May, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Wholesale food prices fell 0.2%, the first decline in seven months.

Energy prices jumped 4.1%, the biggest increase in six months. Wholesale gasoline prices rose 10.2%.

The core producer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, the first increase in three months.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for smaller increases of 0.6% on the headline PPI and a 0.1% increase for the core PPI.

Headline inflation has risen 4.1% in the past 12 months, the largest increase in a year. But core inflation at the wholesale level is up a moderate 1.6% in the past 12 months.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:33:07 AM

Heh Keene, it is nice having you in the Monitor this early. Don't ya just love living in the Eastern time zone.

Looks like the bulls are back in town. Link

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 8:27:12 AM

The SPX chart below (10:14 PM) shows the potential to rally a little further (perhaps after a sideways/down correction today) and this NDX 60-min chart shows the same idea to complete a 3-wave bounce off last week's low: Link

There's very good Fib correlation just above 1928 for an expected high and that would be the first place to look to short the rally (assuming we're getting some supporting evidence that the rally is ending there). But the more bullish path shows a Fib projection at 1953.43 for a new high. If there is to be a new high then this higher Fib projection is also close to the 127% projection of the last week's decline. The 127% (1956) to 138% (1962) projections are common reversal points.

Jane Fox : 6/14/2007 8:26:18 AM

Dateline WSJ - Bear Stearns reported record revenue, but earnings fell 33% due to charges and subprime weakness.

Keene Little : 6/14/2007 8:17:39 AM

Jeff, answer to your question regarding Bradley turn dates for 2007 (11:48 PM): Link The bold dates are the more important turn dates for the year so June 14th is the first important date. As noted on the chart, the line doesn't tell direction but instead only shows the potential turn date.

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