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Keene Little : 6/19/2007 11:50:28 PM

End-of-day posts with updated charts:

Tuesday morning's low for the DOW looks like it was the end of the pullback and it should now be able to continue rallying out of here. The upside Fib projection is now 13802 based on equality between the 1st and 5th waves in the move up from June 8. Also note the Fib projections based on the previous decline from June 1 to June 8--the 127% and 138% are often good targets for the opposite move and the lower one is at 13808. So we've got some good Fib correlation there if it manages to rally up to that level. Link

The DOW and SPX continue to march in lock step with each other. If The Tuesday morning low was the end of the 4th wave pullback then the 5th wave projects (for equality with the 1st wave) to 1553.79. A 127% projection from the June 1-7 decline is at 1555.02. So we've got an upside target near or just above the March 2000 all-time intraday high of 1552.87. Link

NDX has an upside Fib projection for equality between the 1st and 5th waves at 1973.33 but a lower one at 1957.83 which is where wave-5 = 62% of wave-1. That one is an interesting possibility because of the 127% projection from the June 1-8 decline at 1958.21. Assuming we get the next rally leg, that's the first level I'll be watching for evidence of topping. Link

But I think it would look better if NDX went up and at least tagged the trend line along the highs from May, as shown on the daily chart. That's the top of its bearish megaphone pattern, which is a topping pattern. Notice also that the 5th wave for the move up from March would equal the 1st wave at 1972.67 which closely correlates to the higher Fib target at 1973.33 (for equality between the 1st and 5th waves in the move up from June 8). Link

The RUT remains a confusing jumble of overlapping moves on its daily chart and that makes it anyone's guess as to what the short term pattern is. Therefore I do not have as good a feel for where the upside target for it could be. I think using the others as a guide would be a better technique. Right now I'm looking at 860-870 as an upside target zone. Link

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 11:07:52 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/19/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 8:39:27 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 8:29:58 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/19/2007 7:26:01 PM

Double trouble? Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/19/2007 5:51:44 PM

This is not an invitation to go all out short, we let price decide that, but it is an understanding that trading has become difficult and choppy. They might want a glorious end of quarter, so any push down to weekly pivots could be bought if they hold. I still have COMP 2645 on my radar, but I am getting very cautious now. The easy money has been made.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/19/2007 4:21:43 PM

VIX daily suggests a top is near: Link
Whether it is only short term or longer, no one knows, but this action feels toppy and very dangerous. Bulls have that ES bounce today after closing Friady's gap, but bears have higher Yen and 69+ oil on their side. Long trades should now be restricted to day trades, unless you have longer term options. INTC could still move up to 25/25.50, so bulls might suprise some more. Nevertheless, my bias is starting to shift to selling rallies. I think NQ is headed for weekly pivot at 1951.75. Weekly R1 seems a little too ambitious now (1991).

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 4:08:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:56:06 PM

The VIX is suggesting ES will break its daily highs but with only 15 minute left I'm not sure that will happen. Link

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 3:47:44 PM

The RUT remains a confusing jumble of overlapping moves on its daily chart and that makes it anyone's guess as to what the short term pattern is. Therefore I do not have as good a feel for where the upside target for it could be. I think using the others as a guide would be a better technique. Right now I'm looking at 860-870 as an upside target zone. Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:38:25 PM

The stop at 854.40 was never hit but 856.50 has been.

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 3:36:21 PM

NDX has an upside Fib projection for equality between the 1st and 5th waves at 1973.33 but a lower one at 1957.83 which is where wave-5 = 62% of wave-1. That one is an interesting possibility because of the 127% projection from the June 1-8 decline at 1958.21. Assuming we get the next rally leg, that's the first level I'll be watching for evidence of topping. Link

But I think it would look better if NDX went up and at least tagged the trend line along the highs from May. That's the top of its bearish megaphone pattern, which is a topping pattern. Notice also that the 5th wave for the move up from March would equal the 1st wave at 1972.67 which closely correlates to the higher Fib target at 1973.33 (for equality between the 1st and 5th waves in the move up from June 8). Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:24:38 PM

Entry 855.2 + 13 ticks is 856.00 not 856.50

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:24:24 PM

Take profits here - alert

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:24:12 PM

Miscalculated the target should have been 856.00 and not 856.50.

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 3:24:06 PM

The DOW and SPX continue to march in lock step with each other. If this morning's low was the end of the 4th wave pullback then the 5th wave projects (for equality with the 1st wave) to 1553.79. A 127% projection from the June 1-7 decline is at 1555.02. So we've got an upside target near or just above the March 2000 all-time intraday high of 1552.87. Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:23:28 PM

Stop to b/e - alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 3:19:05 PM

03:05 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:16:52 PM

STop to 854.40

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:15:35 PM

STop to 854.20 - 10 ticks at risk now.

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 3:15:35 PM

The DOW needs to giddy up and go here. After breaking above its bull flag pattern earlier today it has since fallen back inside. It could mean it's going to drop lower again to the bottom of its bull flag and larger up-channel, currently near 13565. Link

But if this morning's low was the end of the pullback then it should be able to continue rallying out of here. The upside Fib projection is now 13802 based on equality between the 1st and 5th waves in the move up from June 8. Also note the Fib projections based on the previous decline from June 1 to June 8--the 127% and 138% are often good targets for the opposite move and the lower one is at 13808. So we've got some good Fib correlation there if it manages to rally up to that level (getting a kick higher as I type).

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:09:49 PM

STop 853.90

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 3:09:43 PM

03:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:09:25 PM

Target 856.50

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:09:09 PM

Stop at 853.60

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:08:54 PM

A little late but you can get it now.

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:08:31 PM

long at 855.20 - alert

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:04:30 PM

Don't see a long setup yet but if I do I will let you know.

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 3:03:50 PM

Sure glad we didn't get triggered short because we would have been stopped by now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 3:01:46 PM

US Senate Finance Committee OKs $28.5B Energy Tax Package

DJ- The U.S. Senate Finance Committee Tuesday passed a major energy tax package that would see oil companies footing the bill for much of the $28.5 billion cost to encourage clean and alternative energy technologies.

The Energy Advancement and Investment Act of 2007 would extend production tax credits for renewable energies such as wind and solar to 2013, offer billions in credits for clean coal projects and carbon dioxide storage, and significantly expand incentives for hybrid vehicles and biofuel production.

The package - passed by a 12-6 vote - is expected to be tacked onto the comprehensive energy bill the Senate is debating in the chamber this week.

"The provisions of this bill constitute the most comprehensive set of incentives for the production of clean, alternative energy ever contemplated by Congress," Sen. Jeff Bingaman,, D-N.M., chairman of the committee's energy sub-panel said.

Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., said that the package was necessary given that gasoline prices are over $3 a gallon, crude is north of $60 a barrel and there is concern over mounting global warming.

"This is a monumental, record-breaking bill that does a lot for the country...and takes us in the right direction" Baucus said. "It moves us beyond the the frontier and helps us to address the energy policy challenges of the 21st century," he added.

Although ranking member Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, whose state will benefit from the biofuels provisions, supported the chairman's legislation, other Republicans were staunchly opposed to the bill.

"This is the biggest tax and spend bill that we've seen...and is bad spending policy and bad tax policy," said Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz.

Kyl and Sen. Jim Bunning, R-Ky., primarily expressed concern over the $21 billion in additional taxes for big oil companies.

Firstly, a severance tax on the crude and natural gas that companies sell would be levied over 10 years and is estimated to raise $10.7 billion.

As the provision would provide credit for companies' petroleum royalty payments, the measure would essentially be a tax on future production from controversial oil and gas leases signed in 1998-1999 that omitted royalty price thresholds.

Bunning said the tax, based on a Supreme Court ruling that said Congress couldn't legislate changes to federal contracts, would likely face legal tangles in court.

Bingaman, however, said the provision didn't change any contracts but simply taxed companies on future production.

Furthermore, $9.4 billion would be raised over 10 years by denying a manufacturing tax deduction for major integrated oil companies' domestic energy production.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 2:50:49 PM

Taser Intl. (TASR) $12.60 +3.96% Link ... traded $13.00 today and sticks its head above trend.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 2:39:05 PM

BIX.X 402.44 -0.21% ... still sitting on MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 2:37:31 PM

Kind'a monitor the 10-year YIELD after kiss of WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 2:35:25 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) down 5.0 bp to 5.092%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 2:34:47 PM

Mexico's 10-year Bond Yield Falls 0.14 Pct Pt to 7.56%

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 2:32:21 PM

If triggered short at 852.80 my stop will be 854.20 initially until I can lower it. Target will be 13 ticks 851.50 - alert

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 2:28:51 PM

I will short ER at 852.80 - alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 2:28:25 PM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,531.24 +0.01% Link ...

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 2:27:16 PM

ES tags its PDH and cannot find the buyers to break through. Both NQ and YM are trading below their PDLs Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 2:26:47 PM

European Markets: were modestly lower Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 2:25:25 PM

TRIN to new daily highs is bearish but the VIX is hovering around daily lows which is bullish and I listen to the VIX much more than the TRIN. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 2:23:33 PM

Asian Markets: were modestly higher Link

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 2:14:46 PM

SPX just pulled back to the top of its bull flag pattern (just under 1531) that I've been showing on the 30 and 60-min charts, and is getting a little bounce. This would be the typical place to find support (kiss goodbye retest of the broken downtrend line).

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 2:12:47 PM

The SPX daily chart is shown here as a reminder of why the bulls need to be cautious as well. While I'm looking for another leg higher to complete a 5-wave advance off the June 8th low, the daily chart shows SPX has hit resistance at the top of its parallel up-channel from July 2006, the mid line of its up-channel from March and a minimum Fib projection for this leg up at 1531. If the bulls can't power through this area, which needs to be done now, then I'd start to turn more bearish (as per the dark red bearish wave count). Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 2:10:17 PM

02:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 2:06:59 PM

If the market were trading well technically I would like to see a 3-wave pullback that achieves two equal legs down and lands within the 38%-62% retracement zone of the rally off this morning's low. That retracement zone for SPX is 1529.56-1531.96. It might be a sharper pullback as it already appears to be. If it were to drop below 1529, certainly below 1528, then I'd start thinking a little more short term bearish again. SPX 5-min chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 2:01:48 PM

02:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 1:56:51 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures reclaimed the $69-a-barrel level Tuesday afternoon, as traders weighed the latest developments in Nigeria, where violence has disrupted oil production, and the possibility of an oil-worker strike threatens to further restrict the African country's output.

Nigerian oil-worker unions rejected a government offer aimed at avoiding a strike, according to Dow Jones Newswires. The move comes ahead of Wednesday's planned strike by oil workers.

Meanwhile, Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, a top militant leader in Nigeria freed on bail, said Tuesday that armed groups in Nigeria's south will halt attacks on oil installations to give the new government a chance to deal with the region's problems, the Associated Press reported Tuesday.

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 1:41:59 PM

The RUT's pattern is still the one that has me wondering if there's going to be more to the pullback but so far it's holding up well.

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 1:29:08 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell from a four-and-a-half year high against the yen but traded higher against the euro Tuesday, after broadly in-line housing figures did little to alter market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady for some time.

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 1:25:26 PM

And there's the new high which gives us the impulsive move up off this morning's low. The trend should now be up so look to buy the next pullback.

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 1:14:49 PM

After the pop up about an hour ago we see price consolidating. If this is followed by another minor high then we'll have an impulsive 5-wave move up off this morning's low. It would say we've seen the low for the pullback. It would also be followed by another pullback to correct the 5-wave advance which would be an opportunity to exit shorts if you're holding on for more downside and to get long for the next leg up.

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 12:50:04 PM

So far that little buying spurt was enough to break out of the bull flags for the DOW and SPX. NDX has been in a different kind of consolidation pattern so it's not quite as easy to judge what it's doing. The RUT is still a little worrisome here as it hasn't been able to break above its bull flag pattern and is stalled again at its broken uptrend line from May 16th. But MACD supports the idea that the rally could continue. Otherwise it will likely take another trip down to the bottom of its flag pattern near 839 (or gap fill near 836). Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 12:39:44 PM

I am also long WFC and have a stop just below the 20EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 12:38:34 PM

I am long MCD and have a stop just under the magenta 20EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 12:31:17 PM

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- Will it take double-digit price hikes to convince the markets that inflation is rapidly becoming a major economic problem?

Over the past three months, the annual rate of inflation has been running anywhere from 7% to 11%. That's no typo, folks: Since March, prices have gone up at a 7% clip at the consumer level and at an 11% pace at the producer, or wholesale, level. By contrast, last year consumer prices rose 2.5%, while producer prices inched up just 1.1%.

Of course, I am referring to the headline figure in each instance; in other words, all the prices that are contained in these indexes.

The markets, however, are not at all nervous over this, since they are looking beneath the surface to another measure of price changes -- the "core" rate of inflation.

They assert that today's headline inflation is due mainly to rising prices of food and energy, so it's OK to ignore it and concentrate, instead, on core consumer and producer prices. As you know, these are arrived at by removing food and energy from the totals.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 12:11:19 PM

Bullish swing trade call option setup alert ... Should the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) $84.13 -0.04% ... trade $83.30, buy two (2) of the IWM July $83 Calls (IOW-GE)

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 12:11:01 PM

The VIX and ES are back in sync today. Link

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 12:10:41 PM

SPX has now broken above its bull flag so the bulls want to see any retest, currently near 1531.65 (ES 1546.50) hold.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 12:07:19 PM

I have to leave for a Doctor's appointment. I hope to be back by 02:00 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 12:05:47 PM

Good eye Bob! ... General Electric (GE) $38.72 +1.70% ... new 52-weeker! Above its 12/20/06 relative high $38.49.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 12:04:09 PM

QQQQ $47.73 -0.08% ... just moving into this morning's gap.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 12:02:05 PM

Here comes CROX $45.26 +2.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 12:01:12 PM

IWM/RUT just feels like it is in "no man's land" today. Needs something north of $84.20 to get some momentum back. Otherwise, pullback closer to $83.00, provides tight bull stop at MONTHLY Pivot, and chance to see how the BIX.X are doing for the next wave higher.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:57:25 AM

RETAiling Bullish % is "bear alert" at 60.80%. Would need 66% to reverse back higher to "bullconfirmed," and 32% for "bear confirmed"

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 11:54:37 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:55:55 AM

BEST BUY 1Q NET FALLS 18%, CUTS EPS VIEW

DJ- Consumer electronics retailer's net income drops to $192 million, or 39c a share, amid greater sales of lower-margin products like notebooks. Revenue rises 14% to $7.93 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 49c on revenue of $7.85 billion. Best Buy cuts fiscal-year earnings view to $2.95-$3.15 from $3.10-$3.25.

BBY $45.64 -4.93% ... Dorsey's PnF chart shows bearish vertical count to $45.00. StockCharts' Link is skewed from dividends, its bearish vertical count to $37.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:52:39 AM

DELTA MAY ORDER 125 BOEING 787 JETS

DJ- In a sign of its resurgent financial strength and willingness to spend heavily as it expands outside the U.S., airline is expected to order as many as 125 of Boeing's new jetliners by year end. Order would be valued at $20 billion at list prices.

BA $97.54 +0.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:51:17 AM

CISCO SEES DRAMATIC NETWORK TRAFFIC GROWTH

DJ- Increased use of video and further online collaboration will drive network traffic to an annual growth rate of between 300% and 500% over the next several years, says Cisco's John Chambers, who adds this is beyond most expectations.

CSCO $27.20 -0.03% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:49:35 AM

JAPAN ECONOMY NOT THREATENED FROM CARRY TRADES

DJ- Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, Hiroshi Watanabe, says that he does not see a real threat to the Japanese economy from so-called yen carry trades.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:49:03 AM

US CHAIN STORE SALES STILL ON ROLLER COASTER

DJ- International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS sees the 'roller-coaster pattern of spending' continue for the ninth consecutive week, with its Retail Chain Store Sales Index falling by 0.1% after gaining 1% in the prior week. Redbook also sees decline.

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 11:48:57 AM

This is certainly not what you would call bullish but price is certainly not bearish either. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:47:58 AM

US Economic: ... US HOUSING STARTS FALL 2.1%; PERMITS UP

DJ- Housing starts drop for first time in 4 months, slipping 2.1% in May to seasonally adjusted 1.474 million annual rate. Building permits rise 3% to 1.501 million rate. Economists expected 3.5% drop in starts and 0.2% climb in permits.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:45:22 AM

BIX.X 402.23 -0.26% ... testing yesterday morning's lows and MONTHLY Pivot. DAILY S1 here too.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:42:46 AM

RUT/IWM Partial Deletions ... Now sorted by Market Cap at this Link

Breadth negative 30:8:2

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:28:29 AM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) 5.117% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:27:20 AM

Swing trade call exit alert ... the iShares Russell 2000 IWM July $83 Call (IOW-GE) at the bid of $2.19.

IWM $83.91

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:26:51 AM

IWM $83.93 -0.27% ... came a penny from WEEKLY Pivot, but battles MONTHLY 38.2%

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:26:00 AM

Just not enough "umph" at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:25:42 AM

BIX.X 402.77 -0.12% ... session high has been 404.75.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:19:30 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 11:02:08 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 10:53:15 AM

ES closed its gap and has pulled back a little. Now we watch to see if it can break out of its bull flag. As shown on this SPX 30-min chart, it could stay trapped a little longer as it works its way down to the bottom of the larger up-channel for the rally from June 8. That's when it could close its gap from June 14 at 1522.78. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 10:44:20 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 2.3 bp and trades MONTHLY R2. 5.119%.

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 10:23:17 AM

If we get a little consolidation here followed by another new low, especially if it's accompanied with bullish divergences on the short term charts, that's when I'd start nibbling on a long play. The pullback from Friday should be just about complete. Looking at ES, if it closes this morning's gap down then I think that would be a good sign that the pullback is done and look for the rally to continue. Of course a better bullish sign would be a break out of the bull flag, the top of which is currently near ES 1547 (SPX 1532).

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 10:13:48 AM

Terrible "performance" on the CROX puts at this point. On 6/13/07 at 12:16 PM, the VXN.X was 16.77.

VXN.X currently 16.18 +2.01% and sitting on WEEKLY Pivot.

CROX -2.19% from profile.

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 10:08:14 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/19/2007 10:02:12 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 9:41:40 AM

It's looking like YM could be the first to get this morning's gap closed. In the meantime if the market continues to chop up and down and SPX works its way down to potential support near 1524 (or gap close at 1522.78) then I think it would be a good setup for the long play. Note that ES would close its gap up from Friday at 1539.75 which is closer and may offer earlier support.

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 9:19:21 AM

The VIX and ES were not in sync yesterday. Very interesting. Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 9:07:53 AM

I suspect the US$ will find support at the confluence of the 20 and 50EMA and could be a very good springboard to make another run at the June 13th highs. This would not be good for us goldbugs though. Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 9:03:59 AM

Gold was not able to break the resistance from the confluence of the 20 and 100EMAs but take note - the June 13th lower low was a MACD higher low. HMMM. OK I'm grabbing at straws here. Link

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 9:00:16 AM

INTC could be a good barometer to keep an eye on since it could influence how traders feel about both the techs and blue chips. Its weekly chart shows it has reached a potentially difficult resistance area that I've identified between 24.00 and 24.50 (yesterday's high was 24.31). It's at the top of a parallel up-channel for price action over the past year and right in the middle of some Fib projections and a 62% retracement of the drop from July 2005 to June 2006. Link

If it can push a little higher then it could reach the higher Fib projection at 25.68 and close its January 2006 gap at 25.54. Last Friday INTC gapped up and leaves the gap unfilled at 23.24. What the bulls don't want to see happen from here is a filling of that gap. That would tell me it was likely an exhaustion gap and look out below. How far it will drop back down is anyone's guess but I certainly wouldn't want to be long the stock at that point.

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 8:59:18 AM

I see no reason to believe the bulls will not continue to dominate this market and push the NAZ to new yearly highs but they do need to rest and digest before they started foraging again. Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 8:56:43 AM

Not much more to say about the SPX chart because it looks very similar to the DOW chart except the ubiquitous blue trendline is not in the same place. Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 8:54:18 AM

In essence the DOW already tested it yearly highs on Friday and will probably take little breather before it marches to new yearly and all time highs. Now the $64,000 question is will that breather be another retest of the ubiquitous blue trendline or a sideways move? Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 8:43:43 AM

This chart is not giving us any clues as to if it will retest resistance at yearly highs or retest support at the blue trendline from November of last year. Up to now it has been foolhardy to bet against the bulls and I see no reason to start now, so my "guess" is a retest of yearly highs. Link

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 8:43:24 AM

The dust settled and futures are roughly about where they were prior to 8:30 and pointing to a negative open so far. Rates dropped a tad but nothing significant. As per the charts I posted last night, I'm hoping we'll see a continuation of the pullback that started last Friday. Then I'll be looking for what should be a good long play into the end of the week (maybe Thursday).

What I'm not sure, assuming we get the next leg (5th wave) up, is whether it will be a strong rally or a choppy labored rally instead. I expect the next leg up to finish the rally from March so it could form a difficult to trade choppy ending pattern. But one step at a time here and first thing will be to look for the long play to set up possibly later today.

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 8:38:49 AM

I see the DAX is testing its overnight and PDLs and so far that support has held. This should be encouraging to the bulls Link

Jane Fox : 6/19/2007 8:33:09 AM

Overnight things were looking really good until about 5:00EDT then the sellers arrived and brought all the major indexes to new overnight lows. however, so far the Russell 2000 is the only market that has not broken its PDL. Link

Keene Little : 6/19/2007 8:24:19 AM

Equity futures have had a rather large reversal off its overnight high but since the European markets have been open the futures gave up all their gains and then some. We wait for the reaction to the housing numbers at 8:30.

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