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Keene Little : 6/20/2007 11:50:15 PM

Bottom line is the bulls need to get this market rallying right away, and strongly (not some lazy choppy bounce), otherwise the price pattern will turn much more bearish. 60-min chart updates:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 11:44:50 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/20/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:27:13 PM

Nikkei-225 Link ... currently down 38 points, or -0.21% at 18,172.

Session high/low so far has been 18,189/18,108.

Country's trade balance came in at surplus of 0.79T, which was below the 0.92T consensus.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:05:21 PM

On June 7, the 10-year Yield ($TNX.X) went out at 5.099%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:03:30 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.14 -0.49% ... Recent NAV's Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:01:48 PM

Small-Cap Stocks Fall As Bond Yields Rise Again

DJ- Small stocks fall, hurt by a fall in the price of oil and rising bond yields, with financial services companies a volatile group. Treasury yields rise, after declining this week, re-igniting fears that this could harm companies' borrowing for acquisitions.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 5:47:23 PM

CME LIKES CBOT HOLDER RESPONSE TO OFFER

DJ- Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holding is encouraged by the response received from CBOT Holdings shareholders regarding their latest merger proposal. CBOT holders prepare to vote on the merger agreement on July 9.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 5:45:44 PM

HOMELAND SECURITY DELAYS PASSPORT REQUIREMENT

DJ- After resisting changes to the January '08 deadline for Americans to use passports when returning to U.S. from trips abroad Dept. of Homeland Security postpones the requirement, surrendering to the reality that the State Dept. can't meet the demand for travel documents in time.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 5:37:11 PM

US Month-Ahead Electricity Prices - Amerex at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 5:32:32 PM

FISHER SEES FASTER GROWTH, WARNS ON HOUSING

DJ- Fed President Richard Fisher is optimistic about U.S. economic growth as the year progresses, although he warns the housing sector's woes could run on longer than many currently expect.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 5:11:49 PM

DJ- Deutsche Bank, Citi In Talks To Settle Fund Exposure - Sources

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 5:03:57 PM

July Unleaded (rb07n) ... made a comeback towards the close to settle down just $0.0065, or -0.29% at $2.2281.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 5:02:57 PM

July Crude Oil (cl07n) settled down $0.91, or -1.32% at $68.19.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 5:02:11 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 4:49:34 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 4:34:58 PM

It might as well be another Op-Ex for the Russell's.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 4:34:23 PM

Now I've got IWM marked $82.93 close. $0.02 below MONTHLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 4:17:40 PM

This SPX daily chart is one I'll use in tonight's Wrap. The only way to look at today's action as potentially bullish is to think about an ascending wedge as this chops its way higher into mid July as depicted with the bullish (green) wave count. Link

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 4:02:47 PM

This is bearish looking, no ifs, ands or buts. While I can still call the drop down in the DOW as an ending move for an a-b-c pullback from Friday, I can't do the same for SPX. SPX and RUT look bearish, pure and simple. In order for this not to turn into something much more bearish it has to rally tomorrow and it has to rally immediately.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 4:02:24 PM

IWM goes out smack at DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 4:00:59 PM

Email: ... Jeff, I didn't buy any GM on your initial trade, but couldn't resist on your request at $30.50 on June 1. I did sell the July 32.50's. With them so far in the money now and premium eroding, plus the stock hitting your target, how would you suggest managing the pair at this point?

Reply: ... Having traded stocks with covered calls/puts for years, one way I like to trade it is to simply cut the losing call trade (take the loss if as GM example), then simply snug up a stop in the underlying in an attempt to get a profit from the combined. Calculate the loss from the covered call, see if there's technical upside to a retracement, or pivot level, that has you/us "getting back" some of the lost opportunity from the CC as a revised target for the stock.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 3:48:42 PM

IWM's UpTickVol:DnTickVol is 7:6.

Thank goodness it isn't 12:2?

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 3:48:32 PM

If this afternoon's lows hold though, it will still be possible to count this pullback as the 4th wave and now we'll get a clean 5th wave higher into the end of the week. I just have to ignore that minor under-throw on SPX (it breaks an EW rule, where wave-4 cannot overlap the top of wave-1, but on short term charts it's less critical, especially when not confirmed by the others).

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 3:47:07 PM

Russell Deletions (partial list) left sorted by yesterday's Market Cap Link

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 3:45:45 PM

Getting interesting here. SPX barely overlapped the June 11th high (5 cents) but the DOW and NDX have not, yet. The RUT also just overlapped slightly but it's been in a different kind of pattern so it doesn't have the same significance. This is unfortunately opening up a bunch of possibilities for the next move and makes guessing which way much more difficult. I'm getting the feeling we're going to chop our way higher for several more weeks as part of an ending pattern. It takes a break below the lows on June 12 to remove that bullish potential.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 3:39:18 PM

VXN.X 16.38 +5.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 3:38:59 PM

VIX.X 14.46 +12.52%

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 3:36:27 PM

Good Gravy ... Coley Pharma (COLY) $3.54 -58.42% ... exiting the Russell 2000 with a bang.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 3:35:13 PM

BIIIIG volume in the IWM of 4.8 million last 5-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 3:34:05 PM

Swing trade bullish call trigger alert ... as the IWM trades $83.30 ... for two (2) of the IWM July $83 Calls (IOW-GE) at the offer of $1.86.

See yesterday's MM at 12:11:19 PM.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 3:33:11 PM

If you were able to get short and just hang on you would have had a good day but the kind of trading I do it has not been easy.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 3:29:47 PM

Wide stops are needed and if you are not willing to take on the risk then it is best to step aside.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 3:29:16 PM

This is out of the ordinary because ER is usually a really nice market to trade.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 3:28:24 PM

This afternoon has been one of the worst scalping environments I have traded for quite a while.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 3:25:43 PM

Nigeria Oil Union (update): To Shut Down Production, Loading By Midnight Wednesday

DJ- Oil production and loading will be shut down by midnight Wednesday as part of ongoing nationwide strike, a leader of one of the oil unions said late Wednesday.

"We have instructed our people (members), especially those at the Department of Petroleum Resources, to ensure that all loadings ongoing should be facilitated to ensure that production and loading should be shut down by midnight today," Bayo Olowoshile, general secretary of Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, or Pengassan, told Dow Jones Newswires.

Employees of the DPR hold the keys to the loading terminals. They're needed at the loading terminals to monitor how much crude is being loaded onto vessels for export from Nigeria.

Unions on Wednesday began a nationwide strike to protest price increases for gasoline and other fuels, as well as the value added tax rate increase implemented by the previous government.

The government has responded by reducing the increase in gasoline prices and reversing the 100% hike in the VAT rate, but the workers are insisting on a complete reversal of the gasoline price hikes.

Olowoshile said that despite the directive by Pengassan to its members, the union had not foreclosed last-minute discussions by the government to the end the strike.

"We expect negotiations with the government tomorrow (Thursday), but we know that the government may want to meet us today," he said.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 3:18:44 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 3:09:44 PM

SPX is in the same pattern as the DOW but I'm showing the potential to drop a little lower before finding support near 1520 (dropping as I type), possibly as low as 1516.22 (2nd leg down = 162% of the 1st leg down from Friday). Any lower than 1515.53, the high on June 11th, would say we've either got something a lot more bearish going on or else it's going to be a long hot summer as this gives us a big ugly choppy ascending wedge to new highs. Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 3:08:16 PM

All markets have now broken their PDLs. Interesting, I thought today would be quite bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 3:03:17 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 3:01:52 PM

Mark! ... I'll get to your question regarding my previous GM target of $35. Concede the covered calls, and raise the stop and note WEEKLY R1 at $36.15.

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 2:59:32 PM

The DOW just completed a move down where it has two equal legs down in its pullback from last Friday, at 13561. It's therefore possbile that the pullback is now complete. If so then a projection for the 5th wave (for equality with the 1st) is now at 13787. If it takes the same amount of time as the 1st wave then it should get up there by Friday morning. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 2:53:46 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 2:33:12 PM

Not finding any "news" or updates from tankers at this point Curtis.

I figure TK the biggest market cap; would likely have a headline.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 2:29:56 PM

06/04/07 Sector Snap: Tanker Owners Trade Mixed ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 2:28:26 PM

Teekay Corp. (TK) $57.05 -0.98% ... Formerly Teekay Shipping.

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 2:25:50 PM

Bulls just can't get into gear here. The selling is not being sustained either (hence the choppy overlapping highs and lows on the way down) and now I'm watching to see if the new low is met with bullish divergences. SPX is testing its 10-dma so now's as good a place as any to get some buying started.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 2:19:25 PM

So even if we had moved the stop to 850.80 we would have been stopped.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 2:19:25 PM

Oil, Gas Futures Off on Invetory Report ... AP Story Link ... Like I said... "mass confusion" in the pits.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 2:13:20 PM

Sometimes you can just feel that the market needs a little more breathing room. This trade was one of those times.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 2:12:17 PM

You may want to put the stop at 850.80 to make sure - too late. STopped at b/e

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 2:10:18 PM

Stop to b/e we are within a few ticks of profit.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 2:08:24 PM

Raise stop on long from 851.2 to 849.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 2:07:00 PM

email ... Jeff, I'm no oil expert, but is the huge build in oil supplies related to the big storm that the Middle East a few weeks ago? My guess is that the build could be due to all the tankers arriving with their first delivery after the storm. I'm not sure where to verify this information, but you seem to have access to it. - Curtis

Reply: I've been snooping around, maybe some news under tanker stocks. EIA might have some insight (see 02:16:19)

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 2:06:19 PM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 2:02:33 PM

Curtis! ... Perhaps! CNBC just mentioning imports may not have gotten processed.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 1:58:41 PM

Long from 851.20 stop is 849.20

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 1:52:00 PM

ER made it to 851.10 so no cigar.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 1:50:20 PM

And of course the target is 852.50.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 1:50:03 PM

If triggered stop is 849.20.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 1:49:37 PM

ER long at 851.20 alert.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 1:48:50 PM

Today's Global Economic Calendar at this Link ... Rather surprising 5-4 vote from recent (June) Bank of England MPC meeting. MPC left rates unchanged at 5.50%.

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 1:45:39 PM

With the new leg down we have a either a choppy pullback now or the start of something much more bearish. If SPX drops lower again then it's back to watching for a move down to 1521 area for a 38% retracement of the leg up from June 12th and the area of the previous 4th wave (a common support level for a correction).

The whole sideways/down pattern from last Friday's high continues to look bullish but it's been a challenge figuring out where the pullback will end. However, if SPX were to drop much lower than about 1520 I'm going to start thinking more seriously about the possibility we saw a choppy finish to a truncated high (for SPX) at this morning's open.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 1:43:36 PM

This gives me the impression the DOW is ready to explode upwards. May retest the magenta 20EMA first but I think new all time highs are in our near future. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 1:29:24 PM

European Markets at this Link

$FTSE Link

$DAX Link

$CAC Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/20/2007 1:28:14 PM

We still have some important data tomorrow, so they could hold NQ anywhere between 1952 and 1956. Nevertheless, bulls fumbled even with a chip rally.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/20/2007 1:25:00 PM

The action was indeed toppy yesterday and shorting the rallies the new game. Weekly pivots are targets. VIX lows indicators were in synch with dual negative divergence on daily QQQQ for a reversal set up. We should hit NQ 1950/1952 today. Must hold is 1944.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 1:22:42 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 1:08:45 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 1:01:31 PM

Swing trade covered call buy it back alert ... Buy back the previously sold General Motors GM July $32.50 Call (GM-GZ) at the offer of $3.30.

GM $35.24 +2.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:58:33 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... on the underlying shares of General Motors (GM) $35.18 +1.91% ... to $34.60.

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 12:33:02 PM

After retesting its broken downtrend line and finally working its way over to the parallel line for its up-channel from June 8th, SPX may be finally ready to push higher. I'm showing the ascending wedge as just an idea how it might play out into a Thursday/Friday high. Link

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 12:23:08 PM

SPX did the 3rd test of the broken downtrend line so maybe 3rd time is a charm. Let's see if the bulls can follow Europe's lead here and make new highs.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:19:56 PM

Asset Sales May Upset Mortgage Bonds

DJ- Sale of collateral held by two Bear Stearns hedge funds could have repercussions in the credit markets, writes Anusha Shrivastava. Investors may rethink valuations of bonds where subprime mortgages reside.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:19:18 PM

US Jobless Claims Seen Flat

DJ- Median estimate of economists is for initial jobless claims last week to be even with the prior week's 311,000 reading. If the forecast is right and there are no revisions to prior data, 4-week moving average would dip slightly.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:18:15 PM

MURDOCH EYES MYSPACE SWAP FOR YAHOO STAKE

DJ- Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation is considering swapping its MySpace social networking website for a 25% stake in Yahoo!, according to media reports.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:17:34 PM

S AFRICAN UNIONS THREATEN GOLD MINERS WITH STRIKE

DJ- South African trade unions have declared a dispute against gold producers that are being represented in wage negotiations by the country's Chamber of Mines, the first legal step toward strike action, says union Solidarity.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:16:59 PM

CHINA SETS OVERSEAS INVESTMENT RULES

DJ- China's securities regulator issue detailed rules on overseas investments of securities companies and funds, expanding its overseas investment program for domestic investors.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:14:15 PM

KERKORIAN ENDS TALKS WITH MGM

DJ- Investor drops plans to possibly take over 2 of the prized assets of his majority-controlled company even as his investment vehicle 'continues to believe that there is substantial unrecognized value' in the company's assets.

MGM $81.17 -6.16% ...

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 12:13:53 PM

Short from 850.80 with a stop at 851.80.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 12:13:24 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:13:20 PM

CIRCUIT CITY LOSES $54.6M

DJ- Circuit City Stores swings to a fiscal 1Q loss of $54.57 million, or 33c a share, from a year-ago profit of $6.37 million, or 4c a share on sinking demand for sinking demand for televisions. Company pulls its financial guidance.

CC $16.07 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:12:30 PM

LSE TO SIGN MOU TO MERGE WITH BORSA

DJ- London Stock Exchange and Milan Stock Exchange Borsa Italiana will sign a memorandum of understanding to merge their operations, a person close to the matter tells Dow Jones Newswires.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 12:11:59 PM

Looking good for being short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:11:51 PM

MORGAN STANLEY NET SURGES 40% ON BANKING, TRADING

DJ- Brokerage's 2Q net income jumps to $2.58 billion, or $2.45 a share, as results trump expectations amid big gains at its institutional securities and global wealth management operations. Revenue climbs 32% to $11.52 billion. Analysts expected earnings of $2.01 a share on revenue of $10.3 billion.

MS $89.36 +1.77% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:10:37 PM

NUVEEN TO GO PRIVATE IN $5.75B BUYOUT

DJ- Nuveen Investments agrees to be acquired by a private-equity group led by Madison Dearborn for $65 a share, a 20% premium to yesterday's closing price, but will accept competing proposals for next month. JNC $63.14 +16.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 12:07:17 PM

BANKS START SELLING ASSETS OF BEAR STEARNS' FUND

DJ- JPMorgan is selling assets held as collateral for loans to a Bear Stearns' hedge fund; Deutsche Bank is expected to sell $300 million; and another $575 million is seen hitting the block, CNBC reports. Numbers are on top of Merrill's $850 million asset sale expected this afternoon.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 12:06:06 PM

Stop on the short from 850.80 is 851.80

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 11:58:05 AM

Short ER at 850.80 alert

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 11:46:49 AM

If SPX is going to retest its broken downtrend line from Friday a 3rd time, it should find support near 1528.70 so only about 2 points lower.

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 11:24:44 AM

Chop chop. I'm not seeing anything at the moment that makes me want to get on either side at the moment. Summer time trading at its best (worst) this week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 11:17:23 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 11:14:36 AM

That would have been 2 profitable trades IF.... Ok enough.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 11:14:11 AM

Target is 853.50 and we just hit it.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 11:13:32 AM

Stop is now at 855.70 alert.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 11:13:09 AM

The long from 856.2 that we should not have stopped at 855.80 made it to 857.30 so I would have moved the stop to lock in a few ticks profit. In any case we are short from 854.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 11:05:07 AM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) Link trade at $38.00 is spread-triple top buy signal.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 11:04:28 AM

There is a very good chance crude will revisit $67.00/bl and it if holds then we know for sure it is resistance turned support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 11:03:30 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 11:01:36 AM

I still see a short at 854.80

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 10:58:38 AM

EIA Weekly Heating Oil and SPR Inventory Table at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:58:15 AM

What a shame.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:57:58 AM

And stopped at 856.80.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:57:41 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices were under slight pressure early Wednesday, sending yields a bit higher, as prices gave back a portion of the gains scored in recent rallies.

"The market has come a long way and at this point there should be some backing and filling," said Thomas di Galoma, head of Treasury trading at Jefferies & Co.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:56:49 AM

That drop got to 855 and we would still be long IF I had not made a typing error.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:55:18 AM

Do forget to put that al&&&t on my trades.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:54:55 AM

alert on the last post

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:54:25 AM

Long from 856.20 was stopped at 855.80 for a 4 tick loss. WE are short from 855.80 and have a stop at 856.80 and target at 854.50.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:53:35 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude supplies jumped 6.9 million barrels for the week ended June 15 to stand at 349.3 million, according to the Energy Department. Motor gasoline supplies also rose 1.8 million barrels to 203.3 million. Distillate stocks were up 100,000 barrels at 122.7 million barrels. Following the news, July crude fell 80 cents at $68.30 a barrel. July reformulated gasoline was down 2.86 cents at $2.206 a gallon and July heating oil traded at $2.009 a gallon, down 1.78 cents.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:52:16 AM

Lower stop on the short from 855.80 to 856.8

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:51:39 AM

Target is 13 ticks at 854.50.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 10:50:47 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Crude Oil Inputs, Refinery Op. Capacity, Percent Utilization of Ref. Op. Capacity %, Crude Oil # Days Supply Table at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:50:07 AM

So Sorry I made a mistake and the stop and reversal should have been at 854.80 and not 855.80. But now that we are short we need to manage it. - alert

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:47:49 AM

Short from 855.80 stop at 857.20

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:45:49 AM

Stop and reverse at 855.80 - alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 10:42:52 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Total Gasoline, Reform. Gasoline, Total Distillate, Diesel and Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Inventory Table at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:41:08 AM

Stop and reverse to short at 854.30. - alert

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:35:13 AM

Long triggered at 856.2

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 10:33:32 AM

Stepping away for about 30 minutes. Watch the chop but look for bullish entries.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:32:16 AM

Stop will be 853.80 and target 13 ticks.

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 10:31:51 AM

Let's try an ER long at 856.20.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 10:32:12 AM

Huge build in Crude Oil Stockpiles ... +6.9 million barrels ... mass confusion in the oil pit.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 10:30:38 AM

EIA data being released.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 10:30:17 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $76.35 -0.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 10:29:51 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $52.11 -0.01% ...

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 10:22:53 AM

SPX retested its broken downtrend line from Friday (top of its bull flag) so that continues to look bullish. It may drop a little lower again before it's ready to rally. Then we'll see if it can work its way up to the 1554 target area.

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 10:10:46 AM

The other possibility is that we're going to see this kind of choppy price action as it works its way higher from yesterday's low. If that happens it would likely create ascending wedges for the 5th wave up (ending diagonals). It would be a very typical pattern for the final 5th wave in a long-running bull leg and it would add to my conviction that we're going to be looking for a major high at the end of this. But the short term consequence of that would be a lousy intraday trading environment (very whippy and no follow through).

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 10:08:18 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 10:06:51 AM

Now it's not looking so good for any of them. The bounce into yesterday's high is now looking like part of the corrective 4th wave consolidation since last Friday and not the start of the next leg up. I'm still expecting that leg up but this morning's price action says we're going to get another pullback first. I really hate 4th waves.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 10:02:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 10:01:27 AM

The techs aren't looking nearly so bullish this morning. It looks like the consolidation from Friday may continue for a bit longer on that one.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:58:03 AM

PTR $149.57 ... PTR-GK now bid $2.70. "Usually" get the implied volatility spike right at the open on a gap, but it's actually building.

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 9:39:32 AM

We're getting a quick pullback in the market so if the gaps do get closed it should be a good time to try the long side.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:33:48 AM

Swing trade sell covered call alert with one (1) of the PetroChina PTR Jul $155 Calls (PTR-GK) at the bid of $2.35.

PTR $149.62 +4.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:32:47 AM

Home Depot $10.3 Billion Spinoff, Stock Buyback ... CNN Money.com Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:31:17 AM

Home Depot (HD) $40.85 +6.74% ... "hot early." Should be a 3-box reversal higher. This is loan Dow component not yet showing a "buy signal" on its PnF chart.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:29:05 AM

A couple of weeks ago I had a question regarding why Shanghai's exchanged was so much "stronger" than HongKong's despite close geography. I have/had no good explanation.

This may be addressed in 09:19:25 article.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:22:49 AM

We paid $4.80 for the Sep $145's, so $145 + $4.80 = $149.80.

If we sell the $155 for $?.?? we'll get $155 + $?.?? =

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:20:21 AM

OK .... I think we want to sell OUT-the-money $155's.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:19:25 AM

PetroChina Vaults on Share-Sale Plan ... MarketWatch Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:10:13 AM

PetroChina (PTR) alert! $142.65 ... called higher at $150.00 pre-market. Looking to write a July covered call at the open against the Sep $145 Calls.

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 9:04:16 AM

Asian Markets: at this Link

$NIKK Link ...

$HSI Link ...

$SSEC Link ...

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 8:55:46 AM

We have bullishness abound but there always as to be something and that "something" is the MACD. Even though all the major markets are very close to breaking to new yearly highs the MACD is not supporting that move. I would not be bearish because of it but I would be a little less optimistic bull. Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 8:51:59 AM

Same story here. Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 8:51:05 AM

It doesn't take much of a crystal ball to see that the DOW's all time highs have a very good chance of breaking today. The market may even open at new all time highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/20/2007 8:49:14 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 8:48:55 AM

This pattern suggests that yearly highs are the next stop and with the bullishness we have seen of late it think yearly highs will break. Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 8:47:01 AM

The $ is sitting right on its 20 and 50EMAs and if that support breaks the next level is at the black trendline which is the December lows. This market needs to make a higher low to confirm the higher high made June 14th and I think it has a very good chance of doing just that. Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 8:42:44 AM

US $ is hovering at its PDL and Gold is hovering at its PDH so these two are in sync. later I will look at the daily charts and you will see that the $ is at a very important support and Gold is just sitting a watching to see which way it will go so it can make its next move.

Anyone who doubts the move in the American indexes needs to look at the DAX and they will see the rally has legs. Link

Jane Fox : 6/20/2007 8:35:36 AM

And the bulls are back in town. As if they ever left! Link

Keene Little : 6/20/2007 8:15:38 AM

With equity futures up as much as they are this morning I'd say there's little question that the pullback ended yesterday. Futures climbed steadily all night and are at their highs. The gap up this morning may not get filled today but instead only after we top out later this week.

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