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Keene Little : 6/21/2007 10:37:43 PM

End of day re-post:

The DOW and SPX are back in synch and look the same here. They could go either way and the June 18 low is the important level for the bulls to break back above tomorrow. 60-min chart updates:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link

NDX looks a little more bullish already since it recovered right back up into the previous trading range. It will probably continue rallying or pull back a little first and then press higher: Link

The RUT looks like the DOW and SPX as far as not having bounced up to its June 18th low but interestingly it's finding resistance at its broken uptrend line from March. Link

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 10:17:00 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/21/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 7:03:55 PM

When we trade that level tomorrow, we'll exit at least one (1) of the calls.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 7:03:45 PM

Hmmm ... tomorrow's IWM DAILY R2 is $84.43.

While I have had the 06/05/07 Close marked at $84.29, it was actually $84.43. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 6:38:58 PM

August Nat. Gas (ng07q) settled down $0.037, or -0.50% at $7.482.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 6:37:27 PM

August Heating Oil (ho07q) settled down $0.0093, or -0.46% at $2.0330.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 6:36:38 PM

August Unleaded (rb07q) settled up $0.0186, or +0.83% at $2.2162.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 6:33:42 PM

August Crude Oil (cl07q) settled down $0.21, or -0.31% at $68.65.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 6:32:44 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 6:14:58 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Note: At today's close, the NYSE's 10-day NH/NL reverses back up at needed 62.00%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 6:04:50 PM

Oh my! GM $35.96 +1.75% ... what a stock!

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:57:59 PM

DJ- Unusual Option Activity 06/21/07 at this Link

Other than GM on 6/08/07, what did the others do? If anything.... Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:48:01 PM

Oracle Expected To Post Strong 4Q Results Tuesday

DJ (partial) - Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is expected to announce a 20% increase in profit and a 14% increase in sales when it posts fourth-quarter results Tuesday, though Wall Street analysts will be zeroing in on the business software maker's guidance for the coming year as it absorbs numerous acquisitions.

Oracle said in March it expects that, excluding special items, it will report earnings of 34 cents a share for the fourth quarter ended in May, while revenue should grow 10% to 14% higher than the $4.9 billion total in same period a year earlier.

Growth in new software license revenue, a closely watched metric for the company, is expected to be between 5% and 15% in the quarter, Oracle said.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect Oracle to post earnings of 35 cents a share for the quarter, on revenue of $5.61 billion.

A strong fourth quarter for Oracle, however, is almost taken for granted, as the company typically shines in the last period of its fiscal year.

Many analysts are therefore looking ahead to the company's projections for 2008 in order to gauge the health of the company's business. A potential wild card could be Oracle's progress in digesting its many significant acquisitions.

Traditionally a powerhouse in database software, Oracle has spent more than $20 billion in recent years to build its presence in business applications software, thereby drawing it into more direct competition with German rival SAP AG (SAP).

In contrast to Oracle, SAP has generally opted to develop its own technology internally. Investors have generally cheered Oracle's acquisition spree, however, sending the company's shares up 60% in the past two years, while U.S.-traded shares of SAP have risen roughly 20%.

Oracle's largest recent purchase was an agreement announced in March to pay $3.3 billion for Hyperion Solutions Corp., which makes software used to report and track financial information.

Bank of America analyst Kirk Materne said in a recently published note that "understanding the impact of Hyperion is key to gauging [fiscal 2008] guidance hurdles" for Oracle.

Materne has a buy rating on Oracle shares.

The analyst said that he anticipates Hyperion will add roughly $700 million in total revenue for Oracle in 2008, including some $300 million in new license revenue. "We believe Oracle will have to guide total '08 revenue to $20 billion" and earnings to "slightly better than" $1.11 a share, Materne said.

Analysts on average expect 2008 earnings for Oracle of $1.14 a share on revenue of $19.97 billion, according to Thomson Financial.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:38:43 PM

S&P Additions/Deletions (update)

DJ- Standard & Poor's unveiled several changes to its major U.S. indexes slated for June 29, when ...

1) Covidien Ltd. (COV) will replace National Semiconductor Corp. (NSM) in the S&P 100 and Sanmina-SCI Corp. (SANM) in the S&P 500.

2) Tyco Electronics Ltd. (TEL) will replace PMC-Sierra Inc. (PMCS) in the S&P 500, and the new Tyco International Ltd. (TYC) will replace the old Tyco International (TYC) in the S&P 100 and 500.

Tyco International Ltd. is spinning off Covidien and Tyco Electronics Ltd. in a transaction expected to be completed June 29.

3) Discover Financial Services (DFS) will replace ADC Telecommunications Inc. (ADCT) in the S&P 500 and ADC Telecommunications will replace PH Glatfelter Co. (GLT) in the S&P MidCap 400.

S&P 100 and 500 constituent Morgan Stanley (MS) is spinning off Discover in a transaction expected to close on June 29.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:34:34 PM

O'Reilly Auto Started at "outperform" by Wachovia.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:33:54 PM

AutoZone (AZO) Started at "outperform" at Wachovia.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:27:54 PM

Nigeria Govt, Unions Fail To Reach Deal In Fuel Price Talks (update)

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:25:51 PM

S&P To Add Covidian To S&P 500

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:24:15 PM

S&P To Remove Sanmina and PMC Sierra From S&P 500

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:23:26 PM

S&P To Add Discover Financial To S&P 500

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:22:09 PM

S&P To Remove ADS Telecom From S&P 500

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:19:00 PM

AMEX Short Interest 1.1 Billion Shares At June 15 Vs. 940.5M in Mid-May

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:17:11 PM

Wells Fargo To Buy CIT's Construction Unit

DJ- Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) said late Thursday it has agreed to acquire CIT Group Inc.'s (CIT) construction lending unit.

Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

CIT Construction had $2.4 billion in assets and 235 employees as of March 31.

The acquisition is expected to be completed by the end of June.

Headquartered in Tempe, Ariz., CIT Construction will operate as a division of Wells Fargo Equipment Finance Inc.

WFC $35.63 -0.14% ... $35.63 extended.

CIT Group (CIT) $57.23 +1.18% ... $57.23 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:09:06 PM

Kraft Stock Up on News of Peltz Interest ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 5:07:46 PM

Wow! ... Kraft Foods (KFT) $36.74 +6.61% exploded at 02:00 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 4:41:20 PM

Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 839.81 +0.43% Link ... Session low/high was 828.71/840.02.

So O gets the square to 832.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 4:37:23 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,522.19 +0.61% Link ... Session high/low was 1,522.90/1,504.75.

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 4:33:34 PM

The DOW and SPX are back in synch and look the same here. They could go either way and the June 18 low is the important level for the bulls to break back above tomorrow. 60-min chart updates:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link

NDX looks a little more bullish already since it recovered right back up into the previous trading range. It will probably continue rallying or pull back a little first and then press higher: Link

The RUT looks like the DOW and SPX as far as not having bounced up to its June 18th low but interestingly it's finding resistance at its broken uptrend line from March. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 4:35:31 PM

European Markets: at this Link

$FTSE Link ...

$DAX Link ...

$CAC Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 4:17:12 PM

Coleman Cable (CCIX) $29.85 +0.36% ... Cramer Candidate #1 from $26.56.

FCStone (FCSX) $57.00 -4.63% ... Cramer's Candidate #2 from $42.29.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) $9.65 -5.20% ... Cramer's Candidate #3.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 4:09:18 PM

Mmmm, mmm, mmmmmm... Big long with protective puts today?

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 4:07:54 PM

Financial Select SPDRs (XLF) $37.02 +0.21% ...

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 4:01:19 PM

All in all, not a bad recovery for the bulls. They didn't prove anything yet (still need SPX above 1525.67 for that) but they've held support by the uptrend line from March. That uptrend line, currently near SPX 1508-1509 for tomorrow morning, is an important support level. If that gets broken then we have a heads up that something more bearish is happening. Until it breaks though I think you still need to be looking to buy the dips. Just beware of the potentially very choppy price action we could see for a number of weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 4:00:33 PM

When you're naked, or covered July, sometimes expiration feels a long way off.

When you're long call, or puts, it seems so close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 3:51:53 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $151.81 +3.20% ... sure makes you wonder. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 3:42:27 PM

Oil Futures: Crude Eases On Expected Improvement In Nigeria (update)

DJ- Nymex crude oil futures reversed early gains Thursday to settle below $69.00 a barrel as striking labor unions in Nigeria were expected to reach agreement with government negotiators.

In addition to the news from Nigeria, traders said the sell-off was also due to traders taking advantage of recent high prices to take profits.

Near-month August crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled floor trade 21 cents lower at $68.65 a barrel, after reaching a high of $69.88.

August ICE Brent reached a high of $72.49 a barrel before falling back below $71.00.

Nymex July gasoline settled 1.86 cents higher at $2.2467 a gallon.

Futures opened floor trade higher over uncertainty about the labor strike in Nigeria, which entered its second day. However, traders said the improved outlook for negotiations there, as well as profit taking and continued reaction to government data Wednesday showing a larger-than-expected build in crude stocks pressured prices lower.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released data Wednesday showing a build of 6.9 million barrels in crude oil stocks and an increase of 1.8 million barrels in gasoline inventories.

"People have been taking profits because of the 6.9 million barrel increase in oil," said Peter Beutel, president of trading at Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, Conn. "We've had a lot of speculative buying in this market. That's what's had this market roaring."

Uncertainty as to whether the strike in Nigeria would curtail oil production and whether union leaders and the Nigerian government would negotiate an end to the work stoppage supported prices earlier in the day. But the walkout wasn't seen disrupting the flow of oil from Africa's largest oil producer. Total SA (TOT) said the strike hadn't affected output and loading from its facilities, while other foreign operators in the country couldn't say if there had been any disruption.

The Nigerian government of newly inaugurated President Umaru Yar'Adua has thus far reduced automobile fuel prices increases, canceled an increase in value-added tax and pledged to increase civil service salaries by 15%.

Labor unions initially rejected the government concessions, claiming that they will strike until the fuel price increase is rescinded completely and the sale of two state-owned refineries is reversed.

The two sides should reach an agreement by Thursday or early Friday, said Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, an Africa analyst at Eurasia Group.

"The government has acceded to most of their requests," he said," and the two sides now differ only over the rate of petroleum levies by 5 naira - about 4 US cents."

The government's privatization agency also announced that it will allocate 20% of the equity in the sale of the two refineries for workers at the plants and the local communities.

"It seems there hasn't much news on Nigeria, so the market seems to be backing down a little bit," said Anthony Rosado of IAG Energy Brokers. "The premium we had in the market was probably around $3.00, so we're probably most headed towards the $66.50 and $67.00 mark," said Rosado.

Beutel said that the possibility of a resolution to the work stoppage in Nigeria would likely pressure oil prices downward in the near-term.

"But over the next two years or five years, it could be rather bullish, because I think now they [the government] have established a precedent of giving into demands if they think they have run into a bit of unpleasantness," Beutel said. This could possibly lead to an increase in militant attacks and instability in the long-run, he added.

However, Spio-Garbrah said that the government's willingness to make concessions, including the release of rebel militant Mujahid Asari-Dokubu from prison, could have a positive impact.

"I think the story that is yet to be probably told is how the release of this guy (Mujahid Asari-Dokubu) relates to the market," said Spio-Garbrah.

"Going forward, we will probably see a fall over time of militia attacks because the level of angst has fallen from where it was before. Greater stability than there was before would mean more production."

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 3:35:49 PM

Kansas isn't so bad ... September-February and opening of Turkey in the spring.

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 3:28:26 PM

All I know Jeff is I'm not in Kansas anymore.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 3:25:03 PM

You in Japan Keene?

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 3:23:18 PM

(wink) still here, but not sure for how long.

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 3:22:13 PM

There's a big storm headed our way which may cause a loss of power. So if I suddenly get quie

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 3:14:55 PM

So that I can give equal airtime to the bullish case, here's a daily SPX chart that's a little different than the one I just showed before. It supports the idea that we're going to see an extension of the current rally in a little larger ascending wedge pattern that is based off the entire rally from last July rather than just the 5th wave of the rally as presented in the previous daily chart: Link

I know many of you play credit spreads who like to see option premium decay and of course many are directional traders who don't like decay. In the above chart I'm showing price could extend higher to a Fib projection zone of 1602-1606. That could mess with some credit spreads. It could take as long as mid August. That could mess with premium decay on long puts. So beware of this possible pattern. Until SPX breaks below 1488 it's a very real possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 3:14:23 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 3:02:16 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 2:56:45 PM

The TRIN today has been downright bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:51:43 PM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.56 +0.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:47:08 PM

DJ- 4.7 Quake Hits Japan's Ishikawa Prefecture - Kyodo

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:44:41 PM

GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 196.34 +0.25% ... still holding its rising 50-day SMA.

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 2:40:48 PM

Here's an update to the SMH chart that I used in last night's Wrap. The semis are clearly bullish today and that should have bears very cautious. The MER chart is bearish and the semis are bullish. Look both ways before crossing the street. But SMH hit a potentially important Fib level today at 38.75: Link

At a minimum I expect to see a pullback in SHH now since it has completed a 5-wave move up from its June low. The fact that it completed that 5-wave move at the Fib projection for 62% of the 1st leg up from the end of March has me wondering what we might have here. In the larger weekly pattern it's possible the 3-wave move up from March just completed the final e-wave of a larger sideways triangle.

I don't want to make it complicated and I'm struggling with my charts to be able to show what I mean but it's possible the techs just put in their final high and will now start their next bear market leg down. That would put the techs in synch with the bearish thing I see with MER. It's a bit of speculation at the moment but I like the way it fits the broader market's patterns for a potential top here or soon.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:40:04 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $151.53 +0.25% ...

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 2:32:30 PM

The bounce in SPX off this morning's low is now a 3-wave move that hasn't yet reached the low on Monday, June 18. That level is important for the potential bearish wave count since today's bounce could be the 4th wave correction in the decline from Friday the 15th. As long as 1525.67, noted on the 60-min chart here, is not violated, any turn back down to a new low from here would give us a bearish wave pattern. Link

As depicted with the bearish wave count it would likely mean a whipsaw period over the next week but it would set up a stronger sell off after the end of this month (and holds the market up for end of month/quarter). But if the rally pushes SPX back above 1525.67 from here then there's a good chance we are in a larger choppy move to the upside that forms an ascending wedge as I showed earlier on the daily chart ( Link ).

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:26:00 PM

General Motors (GM) $35.70 ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:19:34 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $38.70 +2.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:18:24 PM

Simply refuses to hit a raised stop today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:17:47 PM

Ooops, close it out at $35.71 bid. Accidently hit the button. GM closed at $35.71.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:17:05 PM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for General Motors (GM) $35.70

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:10:31 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert for General Motors (GM) $35.80 +1.30% ... to $35.70.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2007 2:05:16 PM

TNX 51.50 and higher is stalling bulls.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2007 2:04:43 PM

INTC is on a steady march to 25.50. Techs is the place to be into EOQ.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 2:01:59 PM

Take a look at the 13:49 bar, the bar that made it to 846.50 (13 ticks) and how the market had a little selloff right after.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:01:28 PM

RUT.X 839.91 +0.44% ... at its WEEKLY P, P, P, Pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2007 2:02:38 PM

Watch YG 654. If it holds, it could be a tentative buy with oil up here and grains higher. The problem will be yields, but an equity rally could keep gold above 61.8% 2007 (654). Don't discount the metal if equities rally. All bets are off if we lose 652 again, weekly R1.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:00:30 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL 78:79

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 2:00:17 PM

NYSE NH/NL 84:87

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 2:00:03 PM

Funny how that 13 tick target is the one that makes it most days.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:54:48 PM

I truly did not have time to type that all in before the trade finished. But it just goes to show you it is always a good idea to have a plan in place before you enter a trade.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:52:48 PM

Here is what I did on that last trade. I lowered my target to 846.40 and raised my stop to lock in 3 ticks. The market was telling me it had sellers at 846.40 so why force the dang thing to get past it for 1 more tick. Also since I got so close I was not willing to risk anything and decided I needed something for my effort.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:49:59 PM

Target hit at 846.50.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:48:40 PM

Did you see how ER just sliced thru its daily highs?

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:47:11 PM

Don't you just hate it when the market stops just 1 tick shy of your target.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:46:30 PM

Hit at high of 846.40 so stop to b/e or take this trade off if you like.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 1:45:56 PM

XLF $37.00 +0.16% ... sticks its head above WEEKLY S1.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:44:51 PM

stop to 844.8 4 ticks at risk now.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:44:21 PM

Raise the stop to 844.30

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:41:15 PM

stop to 843.80

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 1:41:12 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for General Motors (GM) $35.73 +1.06%% ... to $35.45.

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 1:42:00 PM

The bounce in SPX would have two equal legs up off this morning's low at 1524.14. It will run into its 30-min 100/130 moving averages in the 1522-1523 area and its daily 10 and 20 moving averages in the 1520-1521 area so in other words it could find resistance to this afternoon's bounce here or not far above.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:38:59 PM

I need ER to move into profit before I raise the stop.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:35:59 PM

Triggered long at 845.20.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:34:01 PM

WE made a high on that last push to 845.10 so no cigar.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:33:31 PM

I see intraday highs at 845.50 but ER does not seem to respect those highs like ES does.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:31:43 PM

STop will be 843.50 and target 846.50

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 1:33:01 PM

Bush Administration "Disappointed" In State Of Doha Talks

DJ- President George W. Bush and his top trade negotiators Thursday said they are disappointed that attempts to revive the Doha round have stalled, but vowed to keep working for a successful conclusion to the Doha talks.

U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab and Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns cut short their visit to Potsdam, Germany, after so-called G4 meetings with ministers from the E.U., Brazil and India failed to bring consensus on lowering trade barriers. The U.S. put the blame for the dead-end on Brazil and India's refusal to negotiate over opening their markets to imports of manufactured goods.

"The President is disappointed that certain countries are blocking an opportunity to expand trade," White House spokesman Tony Fratto said. "Large economies like Brazil and India should not stand in the way of progress for smaller, poor developing nations - but that appears to be what happened in Germany this week."

The Doha negotiations have already missed many deadlines since their launch in 2001, and face another obstacle when Bush's fast-track negotiating authority for trade pacts expires at the end of the month.

Johanns said the E.U. had shown willingness to make new trade concessions and that recent weeks had brought significant progress in a deal to lower trade barriers in agriculture. But India and Brazil were so unrealistic in their demands for keeping their markets closed to foreign manufactured goods and services they in practice "refused to negotiate."

Schwab and Johanns said the Bush administration won't give up on a Doha deal. They plan to travel on to Geneva and talk to World Trade Organization Director General Pascal Lamy about what to do next.

Johanns said that recent weeks had brought more progress toward a trade deal in agriculture than ministers had made in years. That progress could persuade other developing countries to continue working toward a Doha agreement, Johanns and Schwab said.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:30:34 PM

long at 845.20 alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 1:25:52 PM

CNBC- Major Energy Bill Clears Key US Senate Roadblock

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:25:46 PM

These are not giving a real clear picture but bullish all the same. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2007 1:21:59 PM

Intraday VIX was not in favor of bears today, short suqeeze coming.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 1:19:30 PM

Yep ... feels/looks a bit like equilibrium.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 1:16:50 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 1:15:15 PM

My original long was at 842.60 and looking at it now that would have been a successful trade but on closer inspection there was a swing high at 12:48 at 842.60 that would have been stopped so the fact that I did not get the second attempt is OK with me.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2007 1:14:10 PM

Huge move up in SMH. Careful if short.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 1:02:04 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 12:49:41 PM

TAX RATE GRACE PERIOD FOR BUYOUT SHOPS MAY END

DJ- Senate's top tax writer says he would consider shortening a five-year transition period for private-equity firms that go public after House Democrat proposes a similar bill without any grace time for transitioning from the 15% tax rate to the 35% corporate rate.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 12:41:59 PM

SUBPRIME INDEX AT RECORD LOW

DJ- ABX index, which measures subprime-mortgage risk, remains in record-low territory as troubles at 2 Bear Stearns hedge funds rattle investors. Investors unnerved by more bad news on subprime-backed deals offload U.S. mortgage bonds.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 12:40:04 PM

US Economic: BUSINESS BAROMETER UNMOVED AMID AUTO WOES

DJ- Dow Jones-Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UFJ weekly business barometer is unchanged in the week ended June 9 following a 0.2% decrease in the prior week, auto and steel weakness weighing on the gauge.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 12:39:06 PM

BLACKSTONE'S IPO WELL OVERSUBSCRIBED

DJ- Analysts are reporting overwhelming demand for shares in private-equity firm's $4.6 billion IPO a day ahead of the stock's NYSE debut. Blackstone is offering 133.3 million units at an estimated price of $29-$31 each.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 12:33:20 PM

Taking all trades off the table. We are now into a time frame that is difficult to trade.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 12:30:14 PM

MERRILL SELLS FRACTION OF BEAR STEARNS ASSETS (update)

DJ- Brokerage sells $100 million worth of securities, mostly collateralized debt obligations, which a person familiar with the deal tells Dow Jones Newswires was enough to the cover the loan it extended to Bear's two troubled hedge funds. Merrill had put $850 million of assets on the auction block.

BSC $143.84 +0.44% ...
MER $86.28 -1.58% ...

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 12:27:30 PM

Long at 842.60 is off the table - for now alert

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 12:25:20 PM

Short at 838.40. alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 12:25:42 PM

US Economic: Philadelphia Factories See Strong June Gain

DJ- Mid-Atlantic area manufacturers saw their best rate of growth since April 2005 during June, even as they continued to face pressure on the inflation front.

A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday said that the bank's business conditions index, which gauges activity in the region's manufacturing sector, moved to an 18.0 reading in June, from 4.2 in May and 0.2 in April. In the overall index and in its components, positive numbers indicate expanding activity and describe the breadth, but not the magnitude, of the change. June's reading came in above the 7.0 that was the consensus view of forecasters.

"Indicators for current activity point to an expansion of the region's manufacturing sector, after modest growth in previous months," the report said. "A large share of firms continued to report cost pressures, but only slightly more firms reported higher prices for their own manufactured goods than reported price decreases," it added.

In the report, strength in manufacturing activity covered by the Philadelphia Fed district was broad-based. While price pressures continued to expand, with the prices paid index moving to 29.7, from 32.3 in May, the prices received index was a modest 5.1, versus the prior month's 2.2.

The bank also said that its new orders index for June was 18.3, from 8.7 in May, while the shipments index hit 5.0, after standing at 9.3 the month before. Employment expanded more slowly, with that gauge at 5.6, down from 12.9 the prior month.

The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index is a closely watched indicator and given the make up of factories in the bank's district, it is considered to be a solid leading indicator of national activity in the sector. It is often seen as a proxy for the Institute for Supply Management's monthly national manufacturing index.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 12:22:23 PM

Pearson: No Plans For Dow Jones, CNBC, Financial Times Link

DJ- Pearson announced Thursday that it has had exploratory talks with GE about opportunities in business and financial information, including Dow Jones, and has decided not to pursue a combination of CNBC, the Financial Times Group and Dow Jones.

The two companies continue to discuss co-operating agreements between CNBC and the Financial Times Group.

DJ $59.96 -1.13% ...

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 12:15:39 PM

Would have been stopped by now.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 12:15:25 PM

Notice the market got to 842.40 and we were not triggered long. WHew!

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 12:16:38 PM

Asian Markets: at this Link ...

$NIKK Link

$HSI Link ... incredible.

$SSEC Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 12:14:09 PM

Once again the stop is wider than the target because I plan to raise the stop when we move into profit but we need the room to let the trade breathe at the beginning.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 12:12:56 PM

Stop will be 840.8 and target is the 13 ticks at 843.9

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 12:06:06 PM

I will take ER long at 842.60 - alert.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 12:05:27 PM

I was negatively surprised by NH/NL readings this morning.

Long the IWM, I would want to see the NL's stabilize and see build back in NH.

Last three sessions, RUT NH/NL has been more bullish than I had expected at 86:17, 83:25 and yesterday's 82:25. Don't have intra-day NH/NL for RUT, but probably saw bulk of NH early in morning.

According to StockTrader's Almanac, yesterday's trade was historically BEARISH with SPX up just 38% of days. Today is supposed to be BULLISH, with SPX up 76% of days.

Tomorrow supposed to be BEARISH with SPX up just 33% of days.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 12:00:48 PM

NYSE NH/NL 74:79

NASDAQ NH/NL 61:68

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 11:54:58 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 11:50:41 AM

So far we've seen a 3-wave bounce off this morning's low which is a corrective move. The drop back down is so far only a 3-wave move also. What it might be suggesting here is that we're going to just consolidate sideways/up for the rest of the day.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2007 11:46:47 AM

Do not trade lunch today unless you are scalping large contracts for a few ticks. Wait for 2 PM.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 11:46:08 AM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $14.34 +5.13% Link ... gets an upgrade today from Stifel Nicolaus to "buy" from "neutral." Analyst thinks stock reflects several challenges, including the delay of the Barcelona processor and marketshare gains by Intel (INTC) $24.07 +0.54% ...

That's what I (Jeff Bailey) thought on June 1 at $14.58.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 11:43:08 AM

ES is the best market for respecting its PDR. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 11:39:31 AM

I'm showing 12,097 contracts have traded (all exchanges) in the XLF-SK with high/low $0.88/$0.65.

$37 - 0.88 = $36.12.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 11:37:33 AM

I'm showing 15,576 contracts have traded (all exchanges) in the XLF-GK with high/low $0.75/$0.60.

$37 + 0.75 = $37.75.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 11:35:12 AM

I'm showing 11,291 contracts have traded (all exchanges) in the XLF-UI with high/low $0.65/$0.55.

$35.00 - 0.65 = $34.35.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 11:33:22 AM

XLF Options Chain at this Link ... CBOE Volume only.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 11:31:19 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Leading indicators of U.S. economic activity increased 0.3% in May, suggesting the economy may have weathered the storm of the housing slump and rising gas prices, the Conference Board said Thursday.

Economists had been anticipating a 0.2% increase, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

"Although choppy on a month-over-month basis in recent months, the underlying trend of the LEI points to continued modest real GDP growth in the near future," said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc.

And a revision pointed to the leading indicators not as weak in April as first indicated. The leading index fell a revised 0.3% in April, up from a 0.5% decline reported last month.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2007 11:23:54 AM

We might have too many bears once again jumping in with Armagedon statements in the press. We might not get real selling traction until July, so don't get stuck in a bias if price does not confirm. End of quarter is a big deal and we are close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 11:21:25 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 11:14:16 AM

XLF's WEEKLY Pivot Levels are ... $36.54, $36.99, Piv= $37.35, $37.80, $38.16.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 11:12:29 AM

CNBC's Bob Pissani reporting there was some very active PUT BUYING in the Financial Select SPDRs (AMEX:XLF) $36.85 -0.21% this morning (remember VIX.X).

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2007 11:04:44 AM

5 dma R for NQ (1962). That is your momentum indicator on the daily and for now, it still means sellers on rallies. A close above gets the bulls back in the saddle. In other words, don't trust longs for very long below NQ 1961/1962. Great day to buy support and sell resistance. Line in the sand is now 1951.75 for NQ.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 11:01:57 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:58:21 AM

RUT.X 837.52 +0.16% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2007 10:59:17 AM

The VIX went from one end of the spectrum to the next in a matter of two days. This is great news for traders as volatility is back. Scalp 'em, don't love 'em, but bias is upside for now. Financials are weak and providing chop to the day, so again, daytrades only.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:57:49 AM

IWM $83.28 +0.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:57:20 AM

BIX.X 397.39 +0.25% ... day trade bears might be swallowing hard here.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2007 10:56:39 AM

Semis are strong and today's lows are most likely in. Enq of quarter is coming and they will have techs in their portfolio. This day belongs to the bulls above NQ 1951.75. INTC is on a roll once again.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:52:52 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $38.52 +1.95% ... pressed against DAILY R2. Looks $39 much above here.

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 10:56:33 AM

I haven't shown mother Merrill (MER) in a while. Its chart looks bearish and could be one of our best indicators that all is not well in bull land. It has broken below its 200-sma (87.87) and I'm thinking a retest of it will fail. The EW count on this daily chart is calling for a strong sell off from here, although I think it will bounce to retest its 200 moving average first. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:37:17 AM

Nat. Gas Storage is down roughly 5.33%, or 132 Bcf from year-ago levels.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:35:20 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table at this Link ... Build of 89 Bcf.

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 10:31:53 AM

We should see a test of the low with a higher low (a break to a new low would not be a good thing for the bulls) and it would be a good time to try a long if you missed the v-bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:27:55 AM

Nice bounce in the BIX.X 396.02 -0.09% ... DAILY Pivot at 399.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:26:02 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 575.97 -0.54% ... was incorrect quotes at 10:00 AM EDT. Nearing its 07/18/06 low close of 557.76.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:23:02 AM

VIX.X 14.98 +2.04% ... didn't like that MONTHLY R2.

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 10:17:02 AM

Now we find out what the next move will be, assuming the low for the day was just made at support. If we get a choppy consolidation then the bearish wave count will look more plausible. But if the rally gets stronger then we could see the start of another rally leg. Too early to tell so don't hang onto a trade too long here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:13:07 AM

Permain Basin Royalty Trust Announces June Cash Distribution (6/19/07) ... Company Press Release Link

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 10:05:34 AM

Still dropping. Not good for the bulls if this doesn't immediately turn around and bounce. A little throw-under is OK but a drop through support, especially if it fails a retest of that level, will be bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:05:30 AM

VIX.X alert! 15.51 +5.72% ... MONTHLY R2 here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:02:40 AM

I "rolled" to August energy futures with yesterday's July Crude Oil expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 10:02:07 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 9:59:41 AM

SPX and DOW are hitting their trend lines and 62% retracements. This is where it needs to bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 9:52:21 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert on General Motors (GM) $35.56 +0.62% ... to $35.05 (from $34.60).

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 9:50:37 AM

NOT bullish in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 9:49:47 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 394.33 -0.48% ... undercutting MONTHLY S1 again.

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 9:48:47 AM

The DOW just tagged potential support at its uptrend line (13450) from March through the June 8 low. That trend line through the June 13 low is a little lower at 13420 which is the 62% retracement of the rally from June 8.

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 9:43:30 AM

While SPX should find support near 1507 if it drops a little lower this morning (and I place I'd look to try the long side), NDX should find support at its uptrend line from June 8 and 12 lows that's currently at 1917 so about 4 points lower.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2007 9:40:33 AM

Bullish swing trade reestablish target alert for General Motors (GM) $35.12 -0.62% ... at $36.00. Stop has been raised to $34.60.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 9:19:36 AM

Yesterday I mentioned that I suspected the resistance at $67.00/bl would probably hold up as support if/when crude revisited 67.00 to test it. I am beginning to wonder if it will even do a retest now. Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 9:16:56 AM

The US$ has found support at the confluence of the 20 and 50EMAs. If the $ can rally from here, make a higher low then break the swing high from June 14th to confirm that higher low, it will be game over Goldbugs. Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 9:13:02 AM

Notice how once Gold broke its blue upward trendline it returned to it twice and was turned back? Things are not looking good for this shiny commodity. Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 9:08:29 AM

Once I see the DAX close below its blue trendline I will believe the bears have come out of hibernation. Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 9:04:31 AM

The Wilshire 5000 broke the blue trendline earlier this month but used it as support yesterday so the plot gets thicker. Will support fail or will it hold? You can't discount the bulls but at some point we will transition into a bear market, of that I am 100% sure and is this the start. Oh stop that silliness Jane. Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 8:58:03 AM

SPX has been the odd man out because it has used the 50EMA as its support and not the upward blue trendline like all the other markets. But just like the DOW, SPX's MACD is suggesting support will fail and also just like the DOW, I will not discount the strength of the bulls just yet. Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 8:53:05 AM

MACD is supporting the notion that this double top is indeed a bearish development and the next move will be down. However I will not discount the bulls quite yet. I will begin to lose some of my bullishness once I see the DOW close below the blue trendline. Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 8:49:21 AM

Now you have to ask yourself is this a H&S forming with the blue trendline as a neckline or not. Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 8:45:39 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time filings for state unemployment benefits rose to their highest level since April 21 in the latest week, indicating some slack in the U.S. labor market.

Jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 324,000 in the week ending June 16, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The four-week moving average of new claims -- which smoothes out distortions caused by one-time events such as weather or holidays -- rose by 2,500 to 314,500, a six-week high.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 8:43:09 AM

Gold and the US$ traded in sync overnight.

I see the Crude broke its PDH and the DAX is supporting the bearishness seen in the American markets. Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2007 8:33:26 AM

All major equity indexes broke their PDLs overnight, which was not hard to do since they all closed very close to the daily lows yesterday. In any case it does look like the large cap indexes have regained their PDRs but the small cap Russell not quite yet. Link

Keene Little : 6/21/2007 8:22:18 AM

Things aren't looking so good this morning for the USS Bullship. Bulls need the opposite of yesterday's gap n crap and get a drop n pop. Any continuation lower this morning will need to see SPX finding support near 1507, about 5.50 points lower than yesterday's close, which is a 62% retracement of the rally off the June 8th low and the uptrend line from March (see chart below, posted last night).

Assuming SPX will find support no lower than that level, there will still be a chance for a new rally leg to start that takes it higher into next month in a choppy ascending wedge pattern (the green bullish count on this daily chart: Link ). I'm focusing on the SPX right here because it currently looks more bearish than the DOW or NDX so if it breaks support then I think the others will follow.

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