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Keene Little : 6/24/2007 10:25:10 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

After what appears to be a 5-wave move down from Friday, June 15, we can expect a bounce to correct that kind of move, and that's what I'm showing in the updated 60-min charts for the DOW, SPX and RUT (note the bullish divergence at Friday afternoon's low):
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
RUT: Link

I haven't written off the possibility that we'll see a smaller bounce that finds resistance at the downtrend line from Tuesday, as the RUT chart shows it did, and then a new low from there (green depiction). That would actually give the move down over the past week a more corrective look and suggest a larger rally will follow. So ironically a larger bounce into the end of the week will be more bearish while a small bounce and another new low could be more bullish into July.

NDX still looks more bullish to me because of its corrective pullback. It might drop a little lower to its uptrend line from March but I see a bullish resolution out of this (supported by what I see in GOOG's chart). It might be forming a larger ascending wedge (which will mean a choppy trading pattern) but until support breaks at 1909 I would not trust the short side on the techs.
NDX 60-min: Link
GOOG daily: Link

GOOG is showing a big negative divergence at Friday's high but that could get wiped out if it continues to rally. GOOG could pull back to the bottom of its up-channel and then rally again, possibly to the 550 area by mid August. If so then the broader market will also likely be rallying. A drop below 492 would negate the bullish wave count.

OI Technical Staff : 6/24/2007 9:59:59 PM

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