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Keene Little : 6/26/2007 10:07:40 PM

The good news is that the price patterns cleared up some after Tuesday's price action. Each index is in what appears to be a bullish descending wedge and it looks like we should be very close to putting in a bottom and set up a stronger rally. A rally into end-of-month/quarter looks good at this point and if that happens then a rally into July also looks likely.

The flip side of the choppy price pattern in the move down over the past 8 days is that it could be very bearish and we're about to get a hard sell off. But with the bullish divergences on the 60-min charts (except NDX) I'm leaning toward seeing a bullish resolution out of this.

Starting with the DOW 60-min chart, you can see how choppy the decline has been. This is normally bullish and it's been forming a descending wedge with clear bullish divergences at the new lows: Link Ideally we'll see a move lower first thing Wednesday morning and find a low around the bottom of the descending wedge, perhaps around 13290. Look to buy it there. A break below 13250 would be more bearish.

It's possible the low was put in Tuesday afternoon so any break of the downtrend line, currently near 13385, would be more immediately bullish. It's the same picture for SPX: Link On the SPX chart I show the Fib projection for two equal legs down from June 1 at 1485.56 which would also tag the bottom of its descending wedge. Much lower than that though and I'd start thinking much more bearishly.

NDX shows the same descending wedge pattern but does not have the supporting bullish divergences at the new lows. A drop below 1888 would be a heads up and a break below 1876 would be very bearish. In the meantime see if support holds not much lower, or if it rallies right away and breaks the downtrend line then it should be off to the races to the upside. Link

Monday night and early Tuesday morning I posted daily charts of the DOW and SPX showing some potential EW patterns and price projections. This daily NDX chart is an attempt to do the same: Link There are a couple of different patterns here--from expanding to contracting triangles and parallel channels. The choppy price action makes for a few possibilities for how price could rally from here.

Unless we start to get a strong sell off from here, the upside looks like the better odds play. How choppy it will be and how high it will get are subject to some interpretation of the patterns. But for starters I see the Fib projections at 1972.67 and then 2032.09 as the potential.

The pattern in the RUT is even choppier than the NDX. I won't even bother with a 60-min chart on that one since I could have 5 different wave counts on it and no one could tell me I'm wrong. We need more price action. But moving to the daily chart at least gives us some trend lines and price levels to watch: Link

With the various ways to interpret the RUT's price pattern I get upside projections from 860 to 920. We'll have to take our cues from the other indices. In the meantime a break below 820 could be potentially bearish although really 814 (two equal legs down from June 1) would need to break. A move above Tuesday's 830.74 high would be bullish. In between we could get more chop.

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 10:07:03 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/26/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Keene Little : 6/26/2007 9:53:55 PM

The good news is that the price patterns cleared up some today. Each index is in what appears to be a bullish descending wedge and it looks like we should be very close to putting in a bottom and set up a stronger rally. A rally into end-of-month/quarter looks good at this point and if that happens then a rally into July also looks likely.

The flip side of the choppy price pattern in the move down over the past 8 days is that it could be very bearish and we're about to get a hard sell off. But with the bullish divergences on the 60-min charts (except NDX) I'm leaning toward seeing a bullish resolution out of this.

Starting with the DOW 60-min chart, you can see how choppy the decline has been. This is normally bullish and it's been forming a descending wedge with clear bullish divergences at the new lows: Link Ideally we'll see a move lower first thing Wednesday morning and find a low around the bottom of the descending wedge, perhaps around 13290. Look to buy it there. A break below 13250 would be more bearish.

It's possible the low was put in Tuesday afternoon so any break of the downtrend line, currently near 13385, would be more immediately bullish. It's the same picture for SPX: Link On the SPX chart I show the Fib projection for two equal legs down from June 1 at 1485.56 which would also tag the bottom of its descending wedge. Much lower than that though and I'd start thinking much more bearishly.

NDX shows the same descending wedge pattern but does not have the supporting bullish divergences at the new lows. A drop below 1888 would be a heads up and a break below 1876 would be very bearish. In the meantime see if support holds not much lower, or if it rallies right away and breaks the downtrend line then it should be off to the races to the upside. Link

Monday night and early Tuesday morning I posted daily charts of the DOW and SPX showing some potential EW patterns and price projections. This daily NDX chart is an attempt to do the same: Link There are a couple of different patterns here--from expanding to contracting triangles and parallel channels. The choppy price action makes for a few possibilities for how price could rally from here.

Unless we start to get a strong sell off from here, the upside looks like the better odds play. How choppy it will be and how high it will get are subject to some interpretation of the patterns. But for starters I see the Fib projections at 1972.67 and then 2032.09 as the potential.

The pattern in the RUT is even choppier than the NDX. I won't even bother with a 60-min chart on that one since I could have 5 different wave counts on it and no one could tell me I'm wrong. We need more price action. But moving to the daily chart at least gives us some trend lines and price levels to watch: Link

With the various ways to interpret the RUT's price pattern I get upside projections from 860 to 920. We'll have to take our cues from the other indices. In the meantime a break below 820 could be potentially bearish although really 814 (two equal legs down from June 1) would need to break. A move above Tuesday's 830.74 high would be bullish. In between we could get more chop.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 5:12:56 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Note: Closed out the PTR-II. Now NAKED the PTR-GK with stop at $150.00 in underlying shares.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 4:59:36 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 4:47:40 PM

August Unleaded (rb07q) settled down $0.0585, or -2.60% at $2.1934.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 4:46:47 PM

August Crude Oil (cl07q) settled down $1.41, or -2.04% at $67.77.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 4:41:04 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 4:33:32 PM

Nike (NKE) $53.82 +0.01% ... jumps to $56.00 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 4:32:05 PM

Oracle (ORCL) $19.16 -1.64% ... edges lower to $18.89 on headline numbers.

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 4:18:47 PM

It's a nice setup for a quick low tomorrow morning and then start the rally into the end of the week. I see no reason why we shouldn't be looking to buy it tomorrow.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 4:08:41 PM

Should be an interesting overnight session.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 4:07:58 PM

Remember SPX's lower trendline at 1490? SPX lows today are 1490 - do you all hear a drum roll.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 4:07:09 PM

Should'a gone there earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 4:06:09 PM

YM alert! 13,405.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 3:56:50 PM

Lows on June 12th were 819.75 so a close below those lows will have me saying this H&S pattern has confirmed. I originally was saying a close below the neckline (blue trendline) and of course a close below the June 12th lows will be a close below that trendline but I think using the June 12 lows just gives us a better line in the sand. And remember I did predict that would happen this week. HMMMM Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 3:49:37 PM

SEC's Cox: About 12 Investigations on CDOs, CLOs, Under Way

DJ- The Securities and Exchange Commission has opened about a dozen investigations in connection with complex products in which debt is bundled together, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said Tuesday.

Cox was responding to a question from Rep. Carolyn Maloney, a Democrat of New York, who asked about the SEC's oversight of collateralized debt obligations and collateralized loan obligations.

"We come at these problems in many cases through our division of enforcement," Cox said at a House Financial Services Committee hearing. "Our enforcement division currently has open about 12 investigations focused on (such) issues."

At the heart of the issue involving Bear Stearns & Co. (BSC) hedge funds is the opaque and complex market for collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, that have become popular investments for hedge funds as well as investors with longer-term horizons such as pension funds and insurance companies.

Unlike markets for U.S. Treasury securities, there isn't always a willing buyer or seller for these bundles of debt, and the recent turmoil has made those tainted by subprime exposure particularly undesirable.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 3:48:07 PM

Stopped at 831.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 3:43:35 PM

Bodman (update) DJ- U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said Tuesday that he is concerned about the impact of Exxon Mobil (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP) negotiating exit terms from their interests in multi-billion dollar projects in Venezuela's Orinoco heavy oil belt.

Asked if he's worried that supplies to the U.S. could be limited in the wake of Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez's announcement Tuesday, Bodman said, "Of course I'm concerned.

"It's not a happy thing for the Venezuelans," he said.

The energy secretary said that he has encouraged all of the countries with major oil reserves to make those supplies available, and create laws that would encourage non-indigenous companies to produce those reserves.

Bodman also noted concerns about supply from countries other than Venezuela, pointing out problems in Nigeria, for instance.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 3:41:26 PM

ER back down to 832.10.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 3:35:15 PM

WE have a target on this long at 834.90. For now the stop will stay at 831.80.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 3:28:03 PM

That trade once triggered made a low of 832.10 and is now heading back up again.

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 3:27:41 PM

The decline to a new low for SPX has now met the minimums to complete the wave count for wave-c of an a-b-c correction from the June 1 high. Therefore if you're short the market be aware that a new rally leg could start at any time. Ideally we'll see a bounce stay within the descending wedge and then get another low that takes SPX down closer to 1485 to finish the pullback (two equal legs down from the June 1 high) and I'm still looking for that possibility into tomorrow morning. Link

Of the various wave count possibilities that I've shown on the daily DOW and SPX charts, my preferred one calls for the end of a 4th wave correction with the a-b-c pullback from June 1. That then calls for a rally to a new high into early-mid July (to finish the rally from March and from July 2006). Upside Fibs are to 1560 and then 1606 if it doesn't stop at 1560.

This is setting up so that those expecting a rally into the end of the month/quarter this week might get their wish. This week is typically bullish in the 2nd half of the week and that looks to be setting up here. In the meantime continue to watch the downtrend line from June 20th since a break above it from here would be more immediately bullish. Until that happens I'm looking for a little lower to finish this off.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 3:25:11 PM

Long from 833.60 reached at high of 834.20 stop goes to 831.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 3:20:37 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 3:12:26 PM

YM short cover alert 13,449

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 3:07:02 PM

SPY at WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 3:06:22 PM

YM short lower stop alert ... to break even.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 3:04:02 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 3:02:31 PM

ER is quite oversold now but the sellers just keep coming.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 3:00:01 PM

ER long at 833.60 - alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 2:37:45 PM

YM short alert here at 13,449. Stop 13,505. Target 13,405.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 2:29:52 PM

ALTRIA SHIFTS CIGARETTE PRODUCTION TO EUROPE

DJ- Philip Morris unit is moving cigarette production for foreign markets to Europe from the U.S., a move that would further prepare Altria for a possible spinoff of its international tobacco operations. Move will close 2,500-employee N.C. plant.

MO $69.75 +1.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 2:27:10 PM

Energy Secretary Bodman: Concerned About Impact On US Energy Security

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 2:26:21 PM

Energy Secretary Bodman: Concerned About Exxon, Conoco Leaving Orinoco Projects

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 2:23:28 PM

The RUT still shows potential to drop down to the 820 area before finding support. Link

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 2:20:36 PM

In the meantime NDX is fighting hard to hold onto its uptrend line from March. Link

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 2:15:53 PM

Same with the SPX--I'd like to see another low in its descending wedge pattern for an opportunity to buy it (which might happen first thing tomorrow morning). Link

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 2:11:26 PM

The DOW 30-min chart shows the bullish divergences but it hasn't been able to break out of its descending wedge pattern. Price action is a choppy mess. I'm waiting to see if it breaks out or gives us a new low. Either should be a good setup for a long play but not yet. Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 2:07:17 PM

Talk all trades off the table. alert

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 1:56:30 PM

Internals are not giving any clues as to who has the ball today. Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 1:53:33 PM

Stop will be 836.70 if triggered.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 1:52:40 PM

ER short at 834.40. alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 1:47:37 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) Short Interest as of June 15 rose by 4.5 million shares to 22.4 million. Average daily volume has been 13.7 million. Days to cover edged lower from 1.65 to 1.63.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 1:35:54 PM

Long at 837.70 did not trigger. A losing trade that you did not take is just about as good as winner you did. Not quite but just about!

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 1:27:09 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures dropped as much as $12 an ounce Tuesday to touch their lowest level since mid-January, and silver futures sank to their weakest level in eight months, pressured by the options expiration on the July contracts and weaker oil prices as traders awaited a Federal Reserve decision on interest rates due later this week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 1:25:25 PM

US 2-Year Note Auction: 4.906%; 1.37% At High

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $18 billion in two-year notes at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 4.906%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $50.37 billion and accepted $18 billion, including $864.92 million of noncompetitive tenders, down from $938.05 million in noncompetitive tenders accepted at the previous two-year note auction on May 29.

The Treasury received no bids from foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.80, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 1.37%.

The dollar price was 99.941145 and the coupon rate was set at 4.875%, or 4 7/8%.

The median rate was 4.890%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.850%.

Accepted indirect bids for the two-year notes were 28.8% of the total, up from 22.9% in May.

The high rate was up from 4.886% at the previous two-year note auction. The high rate was the highest since 4.930% at the two-year note auction on Jan. 24.

The issue is dated July 2 and matures on June 30, 2009.

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 1:23:17 PM

That was a spike up that tagged a few stops (including mine) and now is probably ready to resume the decline. The trouble is all this chop is going to make either direction riskier than normal. If we get a new low with bullish divergences it would be a better setup for the long side.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 1:20:02 PM

Interesting on how the US$ is finding support at the December 2006 lows. Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 1:19:05 PM

Little doubt that the bullish MACD divergences will not play out. Big sad face! Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 1:15:10 PM

Long ER at 837.70.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 1:13:55 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 1:02:53 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 12:58:02 PM

05/11/07 to 06/25/07 Sector Bell Curve Comparison found at this Link

I've also placed the 5 major market bullish % measures (Dorsey/Wright's) on each curve.

OTC (over the counter) and NDX in column of O. NYSE, SPX and OEX still in X.

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 12:40:27 PM

We've got a 3-wave bounce off yesterday afternoon's low and now the pullback is already getting a little larger than it should be if we were starting something bigger to the upside. I'm still thinking we could see another push lower before potentially setting up a rally into the end of the week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 12:20:54 PM

BOE's Gieve: Not Sure Current Rate Enough To Curb Credit Growth

DJ (partial) - U.K. interest rates may not yet be high enough to bring credit and nominal demand growth down to levels that are sustainable, Bank of England Deputy Governor John Gieve said Tuesday.

In a speech delivered at the University of Surrey, Gieve said that while the full impact of the central bank's four rate hikes since August 2006 "has yet to come," the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee "cannot be sure how much of a restraint current rates will be."

The key Bank rate stands at 5.5%, up from 4.5% before the MPC started tightening policy. The MPC left the rate unchanged at its June meeting, a decision Gieve opposed.

Gieve's comments Tuesday suggest he will once again vote for an increase in the Bank rate at the MPC's next meeting, which ends July 5.

"I voted for a further increase earlier this month partly because I was not convinced that current rates would be sufficient to bring credit growth and nominal demand back to their long term sustainable path," Gieve said.

The deputy governor acknowledged that there is a risk the MPC will raise the Bank rate too quickly and generate "an unnecessary slowdown in activity." But he said he was more concerned that the MPC could lose credibility if it moved too slowly and allowed the inflation rate to get out of control.

Gieve said that he will pay close attention to figures on credit and money supply growth when deciding how to vote at coming MPC meetings.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 12:13:23 PM

Huuuuuge volume in FNM yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 12:12:46 PM

FANNIE MAE MORTGAGE PORTFOLIO UP 1%

DJ- Fannie Mae's gross mortgage portfolio balance rises to $718 billion in May, driven by purchases of $21.8 billion. Firm's net retained commitments climb 50% to $17.5 billion. Into the month of June, option-adjusted spreads continue to widen.

FNM $66.76 +0.78% ...

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 12:11:54 PM

Stopped at 835.80

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 12:11:28 PM

DOJ CLEARS WACHOVIA-AG EDWARDS DEAL

DJ- Wachovia receives Justice Department approval for its $6.8 billion acquisition of A.G. Edwards. The quick 1-month approval indicates the agency decided not to conduct a more thorough investigation.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 12:09:39 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Pimco Chief Investment Officer and founder Bill Gross Tuesday predicted that the subprime mortgage crisis's impact will spread beyond the housing sector and prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates to stir a flagging economy.

Gross, in an outlook for July posted on the Pimco Web site, said the mortgage-sector crisis will impact consumption and new home building over the next year to year and a half.

The crisis "may be just what the Fed has been looking for: easy credit becoming less easy, excessive liquidity returning to more rational levels."

The bond guru predicted that the Fed will reduce the fed funds rate, which is now at 5.25%, over the next six months.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 12:06:28 PM

Target on the long from 837.20 is of course 837.20 + 1.3 = 838.50

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 12:05:48 PM

ConocoPhillips (COP) $77.13 -1.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 12:05:21 PM

Conoco's Petrozuata Unit Now Under PdVSA's "Total Control"

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 12:03:25 PM

Now move the stop to 835.80 alert

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 12:02:37 PM

REdo the stop to 835.40 I was too aggressive on that last move up. alert

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 12:01:54 PM

stop to 835.80

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 12:01:29 PM

Triggered long at 837.20

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 11:59:24 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 11:56:17 AM

ER long at 837.20

Stop 834.8 alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 11:49:58 AM

Swing trade now NAKED Call establish stop alert ... for the PetroChina PTR July $155 Call (PTR-GK) ... should the stock trade $150.

PTR $146.26

PTR-GK $1.50 x $1.60

VIX.X 16.67 +0.12% ...

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 11:49:51 AM

Sometimes it is pretty hilarious what I can type. I even used the spell checker but picked basting instead of bastion.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 11:48:58 AM

BTW Gold's last bastion of hope is not its last basting of hope. :)

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 11:47:52 AM

Crude seems to be the market that is influencing gold's performance more than the $ today

"SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures dropped as much as $9 an ounce Tuesday to touch their lowest level since mid-January, ready to suffer a second-straight session of losses as oil prices weakened and traders awaited a Federal Reserve decision on interest rates due later this week. " Link

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 11:46:03 AM

There's something about the choppy price pattern this morning that I don't like from a bullish perspective. Maybe we're just going to consolidate sideways today but if the current leg up achieves equality with the 1st leg from yesterday afternoon's low, which would be at SPX 1506.96, and looks to be stalling there, I'd try shorting it since we could get the leg down to 1485 to finish the decline. Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 11:48:27 AM

Gold's last bastion of hope is the 200EMA, which is getting a very good test today. Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 11:41:32 AM

I of course have chosen to ignore the Feb debacle when looking at the trendline. You may not choose to do so and if so then the trendline extends back to March.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 11:39:46 AM

... and did indeed hold up again today.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 11:39:28 AM

Keene, actually the $RUT upward trendline extends all the way back to November 2006. Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 11:37:34 AM

Updated AD line and volume. Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 11:36:58 AM

AD line and volume have been all over the map today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 11:29:53 AM

Asian Markets: at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 11:22:49 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 11:17:26 AM

Yesterday Jane showed an uptrend line along the lows of the RUT since late March. That's where price is finding support again today (near 825). If that holds then we should get another rally leg and it could take us to a new high. But if it breaks, especially below 820, then it will begin to look more bearish--daily chart: Link

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 11:07:36 AM

While the choppy pullback in NDX over the past 6 days looks bullish, it's interesting that it's not showing any bullish divergences like SPX and the DOW at the recent lows. The bearish interpretation of this choppy move down (with the overlapping highs and lows) is very bearish and says we're about to get a very strong sell off as the wave pattern unwinds to the downside. So be aware of that possibility if you're trying to buy this for the expected run higher into the end of the week.

But the decline could also be viewed as another bullish descending wedge and a new low, especially with a throw-under and recovery back inside the pattern, could be a good spot to watch for some bullish divergences and try to buy it. But no bullish divergences and I'd either be short or on the sidelines. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 11:02:59 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:53:33 AM

VIX.X 17.04 +2.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:52:26 AM

Cnooc (CEO) $110.27 -2.99% ... just retraced 19.1% of its 2/27/07 low close ($78.18) to recent 6/21/07 high close ($116.95).

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:50:26 AM

PTR may be vulnerable near-term to $140.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:49:55 AM

Bullish swing trade call exit alert ... for the PetroChina PTR Sep $145 Calls (PTR-II) at the bid of $8.60.

PTR $145.80 -0.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:27:14 AM

BP WILL SIGN REVISED TERMS WITH VENEZUELA

DJ- BP is to agree to new terms that allow the Venezuelan government to take majority stakes in oil assets it has stakes in, a source says, following reports that ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil are to quit their operations in the country.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:26:24 AM

SHELL WON'T RE-ENTER NIGERIA'S WESTERN DELTA THIS YEAR

DJ- Oil major is unlikely to go back into Nigeria's troubled Western Delta this year despite the area contributing around 500,000 barrels a day to the company's crude oil production because of escalating violence.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:22:51 AM

TARGET SEES JUNE SALES ON LOW END

DJ- Retailer expects same-store sales for June to increase near the lower end of its planned range of 3% to 5%. In the year-earlier period, same-store sales rose 4.8%.

TGT $63.54 -0.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:21:38 AM

US Econ: US CHAIN-STORE SALES DECLINE

DJ- U.S. chain store sales fall 1.0% in the first three weeks of June, Redbook Research says, noting weather and later Father's Day. Drop is more than its expected 0.8% decline. ICSC-UBS chain store sales index also slips.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:20:33 AM

BLACKROCK TO BUY QUELLOS FUND OF FUNDS

DJ- BlackRock agrees to buy the fund of funds business of Quellos Group for up to $1.7 billion. Quellos chief investment officer, Bryan White, will be global head of the combined fund-of-funds platform, overseeing more than $25.4 billion in assets.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:19:38 AM

KROGER 1Q NET RISES 10%, PLANS $1B BUYBACK

DJ- Grocer earns $336.6 million, or 47c a share, as sales rise 6.7% to $20.7 billion. Excluding labor costs, EPS would have been 49c, a penny ahead of forecasts. Kroger unveils $1 billion stock-buyback program.

KR $28.47 -4.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:18:29 AM

LENNAR HAS LOSS, SEES MORE WEAKNESS

DJ- Home builder swings to 2Q net loss of $244.2 million, or $1.55 a share, and warns of further market weakness in 3Q. Excluding items, it loses 22c; analysts projected EPS of 5c. Revenue drops less-than-expected 37% to $2.88 billion.

LEN $38.55 -0.51% ... new 52-weeker this morning below $38.66.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:13:47 AM

June Consumer Confidence

DJ- U.S. consumer confidence fell in June to its weakest reading since August, with both the present situation and expectations components declining, according to a report released Tuesday.

The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence for June moved to 103.9 from an upwardly revised 108.5 in May and from 106.3 in April.

Economists had expected the June reading to slip to 105.0. May's reading was originally reported at 108.0.

The present situation index, a gauge of consumers' assessment of current economic conditions, fell to 127.9 from an unrevised 136.1 in May.

Consumer expectations for the state of economic activity over the next six months fell to 87.9 in June from an upwardly revised 90.1 the prior month.

"A perceived softening in present-day business and employment conditions are the major reasons behind this month's pull-back in confidence," said Lynn Franco, director of the conference board consumer research center. "Looking ahead, consumers remain rather subdued about short-term economic prospects."

Survey respondents calling current economic conditions "good" fell to 27.4% in June from 29.0% in May. Those saying conditions were "bad" rose to 16.4% from 14.6%.

Consumers were also less positive on the labor market. Those calling jobs "plentiful" fell to 27.0% in June from May's 29.1%, while those describing jobs as "hard to get" lifted to 21.1% from 19.7%.

Meanwhile in June, 17.0% of consumers saw fewer jobs available in six months compared with 15.6% in May.

The Conference Board also reported that in June, 16.1% of those surveyed expected better business conditions in six months' time, versus 15.3% in May. The percentage anticipating worse conditions lifted to 11.0% from 10.2%.

The Conference Board survey is based on a mail-in survey of 5,000 households. The cutoff date for responses was June 19.

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 10:10:37 AM

The DOW did another little throw-over above the top of its descending wedge and has fallen back inside again. This leaves open the possibility that it will drop to a new low below yesterday's. But if it pulls back a little and then pushes to a new daily high then it would be a good sign that the bottom is in for now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:09:15 AM

Table Of New Home Sales at this Link ... Inventory edges up to 7.1 months from April's 7.0, but still down from March's 8.3.

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:04:38 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:02:36 AM

US May New Home Sales -1.6% to 915,000

April Revised to 930,000 from 981,000

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 10:01:19 AM

US Economic: June Consumer Confidence 103.9 Vs. May 108.50

Jeff Bailey : 6/26/2007 9:49:20 AM

Blackstone Group (BX) $31.12 -4.13% ... trades IPO pricing.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 9:18:46 AM

I am less worried about the NAZ confirming the bearishness but I don't doubt it will follow suit if the others break support. Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 9:16:19 AM

And very important that the SPX confirms as well. Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 9:15:16 AM

BEfore you get too excited about the buying puts on the $RUT, you, of course, want to see the DOW close below this support as well. Link

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 9:14:48 AM

Silver is getting knocked lower today, currently at 12.57 and down -.29 (-2.3%). One of the reasons I like playing silver is the fact that when it moves it tends to move big. It's been taking a long time for the metals to roll over and my short from the $14 area in April has mold on it. But at a $1000 per $1 change in silver (YI) it can make for a nice trading vehicle. The low margin requirement is another nice feature about trading YG (gold) and YI. Trend lines and a Fib projection are pointing to 12.40 for short term support (this is the daily chart for July but I'm getting ready to roll over into September): Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 9:09:27 AM

I just love this chart because it is so clear. H&S on the price bars and is confirmed by the MACD and a neckline that started way back in November of 2006. The projection if the pattern is confirmed is the 200EMA (dotted green MA) Link

Keene Little : 6/26/2007 9:03:47 AM

The descending wedge that formed over the past 4 days, as shown on this DOW 30-min chart, Link , was a bullish setup. The pattern is bullish and the bullish divergences at the new lows was confirming it. The throw-over above the pattern yesterday morning was followed by the throw-under yesterday afternoon. It's a very typical setup.

So the short term direction looks bullish from here but then it's a question of what's next. As I laid out with the SPX charts, it's possible we'll only get a bounce that stays below 12400 and the we'll get another new low. If that happens and it continues to show bullish divergence then I'd try buying it again. If the DOW drops below 13250 (two equal legs down from June 1) then the pattern turns more bearish. Link

The first reaction to this chart is yikes, too many lines. This is the same setup as the SPX but on one chart. First of all, if the DOW drops below the June low of 13253 then it would negate the sideways triangle idea (dark green) and we could take that one off the board if it happens. Then we'd be left wondering if it will be just a minor pullback before rallying again (light green) or will it continue to drop (dark red). And that's where 13250 is the key level--much below that and I'd be favoring the bearish wave count.

In the meantime, with several factors and breadth measurements (oversold on a short term basis) favoring a rally this week, I'm looking for a push back up towards the highs and then we'll take it from there. As with the more bullish SPX 1600 upside target, based on a Fib projection off the July low, the upside target for the DOW is 14052 so keep that one in mind for your trading plan. But the first upside targets are 13800 to 13900 (assuming of course we don't break down below 13250 from here).

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 8:59:45 AM

Gold and the US$ were not in sync overnight and both have broken their PDLs. Rest assured they will get back in sync at some point today.

Notice the DAX's late day recovery was much shallower than the American market's recovery and the overnight session was able to actually break its PDL. Link

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 8:52:47 AM

WE have a lot of reports out at 10:00 today:

10:00a.m. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. Previous: -10.

10:00a.m. May New Home Sales. Expected: -6.2%. Previous: +16.2%.

10:00a.m. June Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Expected: 105.0. Previous: 108.0.

10:00a.m. June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Previous: -10.

Jane Fox : 6/26/2007 8:50:01 AM

The markets were able to recover about 50% of Monday's late day sell off before they closed and the overnight sessions have not been able to move them much from that close. Link

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