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Keene Little : 6/27/2007 11:12:29 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

I'm expecting to see a consolidation of Wednesday's rally and it's typical to see the market go on hold before FOMC so it fits to see a consolidation. Then perhaps a relief rally post-FOMC followed by another larger pullback on Friday. That's how I see the market playing out. It's possible we'll see a more bearish pullback but I think that's the lower odds play at this point. 60-min chart updates:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/27/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 9:17:16 PM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 5:53:27 PM

DJ- Con Ed: Power Restored To All Areas of New York City; Brief Transmission Disturbance

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 5:51:45 PM

European Markets finished like this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 5:51:12 PM

Asian Markets finished like this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 5:49:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

CROX hit target of $42.50, closed out CQJ-SV at bid of $2.20.

Long just over 1/4 position Ford Motor (F)

Traded YM long +43.

What a day!

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 5:35:12 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 5:16:34 PM

NYSE NL of 141 just shy of 06/12/07's 144. NHs a similar match of 57, with 55 today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 5:06:42 PM

Oil/Unleaded August crack spread 31.92.

November 31.075.

I think I know what Citigroup is thinking (see 09:34:51) and once again today's EIA data.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 5:03:17 PM

August Unleaded (rb07q) settled up $0.0085, or +0.39% at $2.2019.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 5:01:50 PM

August Crude Oil (cl07q) settled up $1.20, or +1.77% at $68.97.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 4:58:54 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 4:34:40 PM

Oh my! 10-year Yield's session low was the "Bill Gross" low of 06/07/07 (50.28, or 5.028%).

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 4:10:44 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 4:03:54 PM

I'm still getting data feed from big board.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 4:03:23 PM

CNN- New York Subway Suffers "Major" Power Outage

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 4:01:11 PM

Scattered Power Outages Reported In new York City

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 3:53:37 PM

RUT.X alert! WEEKLY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 3:48:38 PM

DJ- Magnum Coal Postpones $350 Million Bond Offer ... Due to Market Conditions.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 3:45:26 PM

All indexes we watch here are not giving jtHMA buy signals. (60 and 120 minute charts have turned green).

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 3:44:54 PM

It looks like we're getting some more short covering into the close as the las hold outs throw in the towel. I think we'll get a pullback first thing tomorrow but it's hard to say how much. Typically the market goes flat on FOMC day until after the announcement.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 3:44:18 PM

Only market to not break its PDH is YM.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 3:44:05 PM

I expected a strong day today but not this strong. Just goes to show you cannot discount the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 3:34:57 PM

YM alert! 13,513

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 3:32:10 PM

NDX alert! 1,930.60 +1.15% ... tries to pull free of WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 3:24:32 PM

Another excellent observation Keene!

And the first major to break above trend was the RUT.X

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 3:18:54 PM

The DOW is the last to break its downtrend line but all are now on a bullish path for at least a few more days. Whether the bounce turns into just a correction to the latest decline or heads for new highs is something we'll have to wait for further price action to help determine. As shown on this DOW 60-min chart, I think both scenarios point to a move higher into next week but not before a pullback perhaps into Friday and maybe as a result of something the Fed says, or doesn't say, in tomorrow's FOMC announcement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 3:15:29 PM

UCPIX went out at $12.36 last night. -20.62% from 11/02/06 close. -15.98% from 11/27/06 close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 3:13:39 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/27/2007 3:09:06 PM

RUT It could see a 7% correction nearterm down to the 775 level. Link

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 3:06:57 PM

Looks like we've got pretty good agreement between the indices today, although some (NDX and RUT) are clearly stronger. Downtrend lines have been broken, including by SPX, except for the DOW which has only tested it so far. But if the DOW can push a little higher then it will be unanimous (starting another push higher as I type). SPX would run into potential resistance at its 38% retracement of its decline at 1505 which is also near yesterday's high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 3:02:57 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/27/2007 2:59:50 PM

NDX & SPX are starting to roll over. Link Link

We're getting a spike in the $VIX this week,is a bottom stting up? Link

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 2:57:57 PM

The RUT tagged its 50% retracement of the decline and looks like it could start at least a pullback to correct today's rally. Link

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 2:51:03 PM

NDX has had a bullish day. It's about to hit the 62% retracement of its decline at 1930.51. Not that it has to but it would make for a good level to stop and start at least a corrective pullback. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:47:03 PM

VIX.X 15.81 -16.35% ... session lows.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:46:31 PM

IWM alert! $83.22 +1.82% ... pounding weekly PIVOT. Go baby go!

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:41:00 PM

YM downward trend from 6/20/07 relative high and 6/27/07 relative high is right here at 13,480

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 2:38:56 PM

NAZ now breaks its PDH as well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:38:14 PM

10-year down 2.9 bp at 5.072% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:37:48 PM

YM 13,475

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 2:34:18 PM

And we can add another arrow to the NAZ's blue upward trendline. Truly amazing. Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 2:32:40 PM

And SPX is bumping up against its 50EMA. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:32:16 PM

High has been 13,473 ... "I hate it when they come within a point, or two of target."

I love profits!

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 2:31:53 PM

The DOW's blue trendline seems to be acting as resistance today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:31:31 PM

YM long exit/target alert 13,465

Tab Gilles : 6/27/2007 2:31:10 PM

Weekly EIA Reporthttp://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp Drawdown in gasoline and distilates was a surprise.

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 2:30:29 PM

The downtrend line from June 20th for the DOW, drawn through yesterday's high, is currently just above the level where today's bounce would have two equal legs up--13374. Be careful if long until we see if this resistance level breaks. Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 2:28:15 PM

This is a pretty bullish engulfing candle we have building today. Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 2:24:31 PM

The jtHMA $RUT is giving us a great big buy signal. This market could easily retrace back to its yearly highs before it breaks support so may be a good place to get long. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:23:37 PM

General Motors (GM) $37.00 +1.70% ...

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 2:23:10 PM

ER breaks through its PDH. Looks like NQ will be next. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:21:09 PM

Swing trade long trigger alert ... for Ford Motor (F) $9.20

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:17:23 PM

YM "in the zone" 13,446

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:16:09 PM

YM long raise stop alert to 13,432.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:14:31 PM

10-year YIELD highs of session at 5.066%

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 2:13:32 PM

YM alert! 13,452 ... DAILY Pivot here.

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 2:05:22 PM

Finally got my wireless connection back so trying to catch up here. The downtrend lines for the DOW and SPX (top of their descending wedges) are currently near 13355 and 1498.20 so watch for potential resistance if this can push a little higher.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 1:55:47 PM

YM long raise stop alert ... to 13,375.

YM 13,418.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 1:53:55 PM

Yes I do Jane ... came so close to YM short target yesterday before stopping a b/e.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 1:51:05 PM

Getting several upside al_rts I had set.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 1:45:17 PM

That is totally up to you but ER moved too fast for me and it was back up almost to b/e before I had a chance to react. And now stopped at b/e

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 1:43:52 PM

Don't you just hate when your trade comes to within 1 tick of profit. Then what do you do take profits whereever, wait for the 1 extra tick or just lower your stop.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 1:40:03 PM

Came to within 1 tick.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 1:38:34 PM

Low stop to b/e

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 1:35:53 PM

Target is of course 836.40 - 1.3 = 835.10

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 1:34:31 PM

stop to 837.60

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 1:30:07 PM

VIX 16.53 -12.49% ... did kiss WEEKLY R2 at open.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 1:27:18 PM

Should YM rocket above DAILY Pivot and 10-year YIELD continue to fall toward 5.0%, then we'll have some insight as to what, if any signal Treasuries begin to give longer-term.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 1:25:36 PM

10-year yield at 50% "dynamic"

YM did fall to its 50% dynamic.

Perhaps MARKET is trading the lower yield "defensive."

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 1:22:35 PM

Still... it would appear Jane is trading the lower yield defensive.

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 1:20:40 PM

Because I'm still on dial-up (AT&T/Cingular is still suffering a national outage apparently) the only chart I have up is YM and I see it has broken today's uptrend line. Today's pattern looks an awful lot like a bear flag. That just broke. A retest of the broken uptrend line would be near 13415.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 1:19:36 PM

Jeff, nope I am just trading the charts :)

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 1:19:27 PM

YM 13,403 ... 10-year down 5.6 bp at 5.045%

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 1:18:53 PM

Look's like Jane's trading the "lower Yield" more defensive.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 1:17:15 PM

BTW the lower high has now confirmed.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 1:16:27 PM

Short ER at 836.40. Stop will be just above the swing high at 838.3 so at 838.40. Its wide I know but we need to let these trades breath. I will lower it of course once we move into profit.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 1:14:32 PM

These are still bullish but the short at 836.40 still stands. ER's counter trend moves can be very nice and since our profit target is only 13 ticks our target is easily attainable. Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 1:11:43 PM

ER's swing high at 1:06 looks to be a lower high but we have to wait until the swing low at 836.60 is breached before we get a confirmation.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 1:10:32 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 1:02:25 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 12:52:22 PM

YM day trader's 5-minute interval chart Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 12:52:29 PM

Short at 836.40 stop 838.20 alert

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 12:47:46 PM

Large Caps are in rally mode as well but they not seeing the same kind of buying as ER.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 12:46:25 PM

ER's PDH is 839.40 and ER is now at 838.50.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 12:43:42 PM

Ya gotta love that VIX! Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 12:40:57 PM

Almost there!! Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 12:39:23 PM

WE took some heat on that trade but our stop was well placed and have now hit target at 837.00

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 12:38:10 PM

Swing trade long setup alert let's look to buy 300 shares in Ford Motor (F) $9.10 +1.56% ... at either $9.01, or $9.20.

Stop goes $8.65, target $10.00.

Just over 1/4 position for $10k=full.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 12:26:10 PM

YM 13,425 ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 12:25:44 PM

10-year Yield's DAILY S2 is 50.53. 10-year currently down 4.4 bp at 5.057%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 12:24:31 PM

Only "reason" I see the YM hasn't traded MONTHLY 61.8 (13,445) and DAILY Pivot (13,452) at this point is the morning gap in the 10-year.

My thoughts anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 12:23:18 PM

Good observation Keene ... check out the 10-year and I think that's why (corrective looking). Day traders wondering if 10-year Yield backfills this morning's gap down, or if it is headed for the 5.0% handle into FOMC.

Yesterday's gap down didn't get backfilled.

December Fed funds 94.81 (unch).

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 12:12:14 PM

So do you think $67.00/bl is support? Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 12:09:51 PM

Of course the target is 837.00

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 12:09:34 PM

stop to 833.80

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 12:08:27 PM

Long at 835.70 stop is 833.40 for now.

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 12:08:17 PM

The only thing I don't like so far about this morning's bounce is the fact that it's corrective looking. With the overlapping highs and lows it gives me the impression that the bounce will fail. Keep an eye on the downtrend lines from last week since it might set up at least a scalp short play if that resistance holds.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 12:07:31 PM

Long ER at 835.70 alert

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 11:48:00 AM

If I get a close below the JUNE 12 lows I will be buying IWM puts. I usually buy ATM and will probably go out to Jan 2008 to give the trade breathing room.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 11:43:52 AM

I'll keep updating these charts for you to see if my prediction that PDHs are tested today. Link

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 11:42:58 AM

If price can hold up today then we have a nice setup for the start of a rally. This morning's spike caused SPX to do a throw-under below the bottom of its descending wedge and then jumped back up inside. Proof will be a break above its downtrend line, currently near 1500, but so far it's a good start. This morning's low can't be violated otherwise it would negate this bullish pattern. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 11:16:22 AM

YM long alert here at 13,422. Stop 13,368. Target 13,475.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 11:14:15 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 11:07:22 AM

Makes you wonder if it's going to be like this through tomorrow afternoon until the FOMC announcement.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 11:02:23 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 10:55:42 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputes, Crude Oil Inputs, Refinery Op. Capacity, Pct. Utilization, USO at Friday Closes, # Day's Supply Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 10:45:12 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Total Gasoline, Reformulated Gasoline, Total Distillate, Diesel and Jet Fuel Table at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 10:35:00 AM

Like I said earlier I think the PDHs well be tested at some point today. They may not break but will be tested. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 10:34:57 AM

VLO $73.06 -2.11% ... will find bid

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 10:34:30 AM

Mass confusion in energy pits ... unleaded draw.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 10:25:50 AM

EIA Weekly Inventory data due out in 5-minutes. Builds expected, but last few reports have been very confusing.

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 10:25:46 AM

There's not a lot happening this morning and by that measure alone I think we'll at least see a retest of the overnight lows for the futures. But that doesn't preclude a move higher first. Bottom line is I don't see a good setup yet for either direction.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 10:25:15 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey is out, but "link" is broken at their web page. Support team there is working on it.

"Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Survey"

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 10:14:31 AM

Equity futures / cash traders ... notable discrepancy between the two today. Futures got hit just after the 04:00 PM cash close, so INDU/SPX/OEX/NDX/RUT differ from futures.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 10:07:58 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 10:05:58 AM

Software drives hardware ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 10:05:30 AM

Not getting quotes on GSO.X.

MSFT +0.33% and ORCL +1.93% ... would guess positive though.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 10:04:43 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 9:56:05 AM

All markets to new daily highs and I expect them to challenge their PDHs at some point today. Even though the AD line and volume are bearish the VIX is telling you the buyers are lurking.

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 9:54:12 AM

If the futures manage to drop back down to retest their overnight lows I'd try to buy it there. The futures closed their morning gaps but that was at a lower level than where cash had closed yesterday so it's a bit difficult to determine which gaps are the important ones. Until downtrend lines are broken be careful of continued chop and whipsaws this morning.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 9:51:39 AM

Wonder why the markets are choppy? VIX to new daily lows and AD volume is also to new daily lows. This is your formula for chop. Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 9:45:14 AM

I still do not expect this to be a down day. I think the bulls are just too strong to let the support we saw on the daily charts break TODAY.

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 9:46:28 AM

Crocs "gett'n skinned" ... -9.12% Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 9:43:33 AM

Bear Stearns (BSC) $142.66 +2.37% ...

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 9:41:29 AM

My goodness gracious look at the AD line -1458. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 9:39:45 AM

Valero (VLO) $72.00 -3.56% ... Downgraded at Citigroup to "neutral" from "buy"

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 9:36:15 AM

VIX.X 18.81 -0.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/27/2007 9:34:51 AM

Swing trade put target alert ... With Crocs (CROX) $42.50, the CROX July $42.50 Puts (CQJ-SV) at the bid of $2.20.

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 9:32:46 AM

Here is one we have not looked at for a while, the mid caps. It has already broken its June 12th, blue trendline and its 50EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 9:27:29 AM

The NAZ composite is not even tagging its 50EMA or blue trendline so seems to be the stronger market of late. Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 9:24:34 AM

And the SPX is hitting its major support as well but this market is below its 50EMA whereas the DOW is just hitting its 50EMA. Today is a very crucial day, IMHO. Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 9:18:22 AM

DOW has broken its blue trendline but finding support on the 50EMA and of course we have the June 12th lows, which is 13251. Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 9:10:32 AM

June 12th lows were 819.75 so I am now looking for a close below that low which of course would be a close below the blue trendline and a confirmation of the head and shoulders. Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 9:07:48 AM

US$ is falling but I am not seeing a counter move in Gold and that is due to Crude falling. Both the $ and crude influence Gold and lately it seems Crude has had more of an affect on Gold than the $ although it is usually the other way around.

We are having a nice rally in TBonds. Link

Jane Fox : 6/27/2007 8:58:44 AM

All markets broke their PDLs overnight and none have returned back to the comfort of their PDR. The daily charts are hitting major support and I suspect the market will at move sideways or retrace today. I do no think support will break today. Link

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 8:49:51 AM

Looks like I'll be limping along on a very slow dial-up connection until Cingular support gets out of bed. They don't open up until 7:00 AM PST, 10:00 AM EST. Real customer friendly that group. I'll repeat my recommendation about Cingular wireless for internet again--do not ever consider them.

Keene Little : 6/27/2007 8:43:17 AM

I'm struggling with my internet connection again and will be on the phone with Cingular support until it gets fixed. Not sure how long that will take.

In the meantime, after the quick sell off in the futures following yesterday's cash close and now with futures down a little more it looks like the cash market will be opening gap down. But this could be the move that finishes the pullback so watch for the potential to have a drop n pop day--look for an opportunity to buy it.

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