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Keene Little : 6/28/2007 11:09:44 PM

I showed this SPX 60-min chart towards the end of Thursday's trading session to discuss the possible bullish and bearish scenarios that might play out over the next week: Link

Both scenarios make the assumption that we've seen the completion of the 1st leg up from Wednesday's low and that we'll get a pullback followed by another rally leg up next week. The question then will become whether it'll be just an a-b-c bounce to correct the decline from June 15th or if this is the start of a rally up to new all-time highs.

If the broken uptrend line from March remains resistance and price drops back down to a new low then there will be little question about the fact we're in the bearish wave count. But if price gets back above the trend line and finds it to be support again then the upside target at 1560 is where this should head.

But first we'll need to see SPX break below 1505 to give us a better clue that the 1st leg up is done. Otherwise, as shown on this 30-min chart, a parallel up-channel for the rally is still intact and another push higher could see SPX tagging the 1518 area: Link

It's the same for the DOW's two scenarios from here: Link

NDX and RUT have been in much choppier price patterns and leave some different possibilities. The NDX chart shows the bearish wave count calling for a new decline to start from here. The bullish wave counts need a pullback but then a continuation higher (how high is the question). Link And the same setup for the RUT: Link

I haven't updated CME and GOOG in a while so here are daily chart updates. CME has again pulled back correctively since the June high and that only continues its very choppy and whippy price action that this has seen this year. I don't see any reliable trade setups in this stock. Link

I see GOOG as topping or very close to topping. It has formed an ascending wedge pattern with bearish divergences at the new high and it met its initial Fib projection target at 533. Link A break of its uptrend line from May would be the first heads up that the rally may have ended. A break below 498 would confirm it and a break below 457 would say we're into what should be a very large pullback. A small push higher to around 540 could be a good setup for a short play. And if GOOG is topping out I have to wonder what's in store for the rest of the techs (and by extension, the rest of the market).

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 10:09:33 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/28/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 6:22:23 PM

UAL Refinances Approximately $1 Billion In Debt

Company announces that it has refinanced approx $1 bln in existing lease and mortgage debt through the issuance of $694 mln in Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates and $270 mln in Special Facility Rev Refunding Bonds at Denver International Airport. The proceeds from these debt offerings will refinance existing aircraft lease and mortgage debt associated with 13 widebody aircraft and the existing Special Facility Revenue Bonds at Denver International Airport. Excluding any non-cash gains associated with the extinguishment of debt, these transactions are expected to save UAUA approx $10 mln in interest and rent expense for the remainder of 2007 and $22 mln for the full year 2008.

UAUA $40.63 +4.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 6:22:18 PM


DJ- Two more junk-bond deals stumble, with underwriters in charge of drumming up financing for leveraged buyouts forced to significantly alter terms to entice investors. Changes come after several deals were postponed indefinitely over the last week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 6:06:03 PM


DJ- Private-equity firm slashes size and price of offering in a fund investing in assets such as residential mortgage backed securities and corporate loans amid growing investor concerns about widespread contagion in credit markets.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 6:22:10 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.04 +0.19% ... 06/22/07 NAV $10.29 Link

One portion of today's decision to part with IWM July $83 Calls.

Tends to "make sense" with recent news of canceled bond offerings due to Bear Stearns revelations and poor pricing in corporate market. Will pass with time.

FOMC looks on track.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 6:21:59 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Closed out PTR-GK, IOW-GE and wanted to protect F @ $9.52 into the FOMC. Looking to buy F back, but monitor UAW vote GM/Delphi. Added additional OLN-AD.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 5:29:40 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 5:19:38 PM

August Unleaded (rb07q) settled up $0.0067, or +0.30% at $2.2086.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 5:18:39 PM

August Crude Oil (cl07q) settled up $0.60, or +0.87% at $69.57.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 5:11:48 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

05/09/07 Closing Watch Link

06/29/06 Closing Watch Link (Last rate increase)

Also see today's 02:27:46.

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 4:36:01 PM

Quick update on RUT before I run (and then I'll update charts later this evening). Following up on Jane's observation, my daily chart shows the same bearish shooting star for today's candle and notice where the rally stopped--right at the mid line of its up-channel: Link We have a bearish candle following a bullish one so which one rules? Only time will tell.

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 4:32:26 PM

I heard on a news story last night that there is some concern about Iphone service because ATT/Cingular--the only carrier available--is known for its poor quality bandwidth (Iphone searches the internet). Just thought you should know.

This might help answer the question from RB (12:28 post) and his question about the ATT/C--iPhone setup. Perhaps between the phone not measuring up to the hype and ATT/C's poor service, we're looking at a flop in the making. It also explains some of the difficulties I've been experiencing.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 3:58:22 PM

Olin Corp. (OLN) $20.71 +3.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 3:57:56 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $38.50 +2.52% ...

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 4:18:03 PM

Geesh! On Monday and Tuesday I was bearish thinking it was possible for the markets to break their support this week. Then yesterday happened and I began rethinking my bearishness. Now I am rethinking my rethinking. Today was not a bullish day. Link

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 3:46:52 PM

It's looking like the pullback in yields might have finished since the bounce in TNX has now made a higher high after lower highs. Looking at the daily chart you can see how it stopped exactly on the parallel line (light blue uptrend line) that was attached to the low on May 11th. Link

This an EW technique for identifying parallel channels--draw the trend line between the 1st and 3rd waves, attach a parallel to the 2nd wave and you will very often see that line mark the end of the 4th wave pullback. It now appears the 5th wave up (in the rally from March) could be underway and between the Fibs and trend lines I think it will rally (bonds decline) to the 5.4% area. That might then mark the high for the year or we could get another corrective pullback and press higher again into August.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 3:41:58 PM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... shares of Ford Motor (F) $9.52 +2.67% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 3:39:58 PM

CNOOC (CEO) $113.22 +3.39% ... Closed under its 19.1% retracement of $109.55 two days in a row, but backfills its 6/25 to 6/24 gap today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 3:35:00 PM

VIX.X 15.14 -2.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 3:34:28 PM

Swing trade NAKED call buy it back alert! ... bullish looking settlement on Crude Oil and begins to confirm strength of oil-based equities.

Closing out the PetroChina PTR July $155 Call (PTR-GK) at the offer of $2.20.

PTR $149.19 +1.97% ...

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 3:33:09 PM

Just got this email from Al about the Russell futures moving to the NYBOT's ICE exchange. "A lady at the CME verified that the ER2 will be available on CME/Globex until Sept 2008. In the interim, they will be working with S&P to develop an alternative product that they hope to have available by the beginning of 2008. Of course, the EMD is a currently available mid cap alternative that has the same tick value as the ER2 but currently lacks volume. Hopefully, that will pickup and become a viable alternative. While I don't really know anything about the NYBOT, I sure don't want to pay another $55 exchange fee."

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 3:19:49 PM

Because of the impulsive rally off yesterday's low I'm now looking for a pullback to correct it and then another leg up. After the 2nd leg up (probably into the end of next week or early the following week) will be decision time since it could count as a bearish a-b-c bounce to a lower high (and get ready for a strong 3rd wave down) or it could be a bullish 1-2-3 wave count on the way up to new all-time highs for SPX. This is how the two scenarios look on the 60-min chart: Link

I'm making the assumption for now that the end of the 1st leg up is done and we'll now start the pullback to correct it. I'm showing a 62% retracement which would take SPX back down around 1495. Then for the bearish wave count (dark red) equality between the two legs up would be at 1526 which crosses the broken uptrend line from March next Thursday (QCharts hasn't taken off Wednesday, July 4th yet). That's the first place I'd consider a long term short play.

But if we've just started the move up to a new high then that's shown with the green bullish wave count. Using typical time and price relationships between the waves shows the 2nd leg up (3rd wave) getting up near 1545. Then a pullback in a 4th wave followed by the final 5th wave to 1560. Notice too that that is in the area between the 127% and 138% projections off the previous decline (these often act as reversal levels). The 1560 projection also ties in very nicely with the Fib projection on the daily chart where the 5th wave in the rally from March would equal the 1st wave near 1558: Link

One leg at a time until we see how this sets up. First thing is to see if today's high was it and we start a pullback into tomorrow. If it does then I'll be watching it closely for where a buying opportunity will be found.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 3:19:00 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 3:02:13 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:57:18 PM

SPY 150.86 +0.30% ... trades its 5/11/07 "Doji" close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:55:55 PM

December Fed Fund futures (ff07z) 94.80 ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:54:06 PM

BP's Whiting Refinery Restart

DJ- BP PLC's (BP) giant refinery outside of Chicago has begun to restart a 75,000 barrel a day crude unit there, a person familiar with the refinery said Thursday.

The move is consistent with earlier reports that the unit could restart in late June or early July.

If the restart is successful, the move will increase crude throughput and boost gasoline output at the refinery, which has been at reduced rates since March. The move would boost gasoline output by about 20,000 barrels a day, the person said.

The refinery is the fourth largest operating refinery in the U.S., with a crude processing capacity of 410,000 barrels a day. However, the company has only been processing about 200,000 barrels a day since late March.

The Chicago-area refinery is a key source of fuel for the midwest. Downtime for two of its three crude units and gasoline-related processing units has stretched to months from the four to six weeks originally estimated.

A fire at the end of March damaged a hydrotreater, used to remove sulfur and other contaminants, and forced BP to reduce the processing rates of other units there, including those used to produce gasoline. Forced to cut the amount of crude oil processed, BP also took the opportunity to advance planned maintenance on the crude units.

Repairs on the other crude unit - which also processes about 75,000 barrels a day of crude - are seen taking until late summer to complete, the person said.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:50:10 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $73.60 -0.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:49:39 PM

One Crude Unit In Restart At BP's Whiting Refinery

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 2:48:42 PM

If this pushes higher then that quick drop to the low just past 2:30 would be the end of the 4th wave correction. In that case the projection for the 5th wave, where it would equal yesterday's 1st wave, is to 1518.16, pretty much on top of the 62% retracement of the decline and at its broken uptrend line. So I think it's a short here, against today's high, or a short at 1518.

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 2:46:47 PM

Are we rallying or are we pulling back? Obviously a new high would now be bullish again. Back and forth. Make up your mind.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:46:40 PM

SPY $151.11 +0.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:46:09 PM

VIX.X alert! 15.03 -3.21% ... WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:36:30 PM

SPY $150.55 +0.09% ... know where you are.

Did get a trade at WEEKLY Pivot first time this week just after FOMC.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 2:34:08 PM

Remember ER's PDH at 846.20 I looks like it is going to be support again.

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 2:35:03 PM

Taking out the reaction low is now bearish. We're likely starting the pullback that should take us into tomorrow. But the impulsive (5-wave) move up off yesterday's low tells us our trend has changed to up, at least for the short term. After the pullback we'll be due at least another leg up and that's the one that should take us into next week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:32:54 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $73.46 -0.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:32:31 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $174.04 -1.53% ... extending losses from 02:20 benchmark.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:29:55 PM

Pretty close to my read Monday evening.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:27:46 PM

FOMC's June 28, 2007 Statement Link

May 9th Statement Link

June 29, 2006 Statement Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:22:45 PM

02:20 Market Watch at this Link

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 2:21:34 PM

And if it does continue higher then keep an eye on SPX 1518 as a level to try a short for a pullback into tomorrow.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 2:21:03 PM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve on Thursday kept the federal funds rate steady as expected and signaled that it is not yet satisfied with the recent drop in core inflation to the top end of its long-assumed comfort zone.

While officials acknowledged recent price improvement and said they expect inflation to keep moderating, they said the downtrend hasn't been "convincingly" established.

They also upgraded their economic assessment, further evidence that officials aren't contemplating rate cuts in the foreseeable future, as Wall Street once hoped

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 2:20:35 PM

Busting out of the top of the pattern could be bullish here so be careful if short. If it doesn't immediately drop back down then it'll be bullish.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 2:18:05 PM

This is for cowboys only.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 2:17:45 PM

Both ES and NQ used their PDHs as support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:16:24 PM

Alternating sell, then buy, then sell program premiums.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 2:15:44 PM

First move down.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 2:15:13 PM

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 1:59:36 PM

This move up looks like it could be completing the little ascending wedge on the DOW chart I've been showing, a little earlier than I thought it would. In order for it to be completing the 5th wave of the rally from yesterday's low it will need to be topping out around here. If it pulls back and then rallies higher after FOMC then it will be a bullish signal.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 1:55:22 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) alert! 13,464.82 ... Back at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 1:53:21 PM

S&P 100 (OEX.X) alert! 696.29 +0.34% ... back at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 1:46:25 PM

Ad line and volume are bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 1:42:22 PM

This has the look and feel of a market that is ready to blast higher but who knows how the markets will react to the FED's announcement. An announcement that is an almost baked in the cake for sure "No change." Link

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 1:41:13 PM

So far the DOW continues to look good for a sell-the-news post FOMC. Just be careful about a quick spike out the top that doesn't immediately pull back. That would be a buy signal for a big run higher. But a quick spike up that then falls back inside this ascending wedge would be a sell signal. Link

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 1:39:27 PM

I have been trading ER for many years have gotten to understand its nuances. Trading on the ICE exchange will be totally different.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 1:38:11 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... on shares of Ford Motor (F) $9.60 +3.55% ... to $9.52.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 1:37:52 PM

So ER will not longer be ER but TF.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 1:37:11 PM

"NYBOT's Russell 2000 futures contracts to be offered on ICE will have contract specifications familiar to those who trade Russell 2000 stock index contracts. NYBOT now offers in open-outcry trading a full-size Russell 2000 futures contract (symbol TO) with a multiplier of $500 X Russell 2000 Index; this contract will be launched on the ICE electronic trading platform no later than August 29 and will be available in side-by-side trading during normal floor trading hours. In addition, NYBOT plans to offer a new mini size Russell 2000 futures contract (symbol TF) with a multiplier of $100 X Russell 2000 Index on or before August 29."

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 1:36:51 PM

A great big thanks to Al for forwarding these articles to me. I had heard about this last week but did not have the time to research it until now.

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 1:36:46 PM

If SPX spikes higher after the FOMC announcement keep an eye on the 1518 area which is a 62% retracement of the decline and up against its broken uptrend line from March: Link

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 1:35:52 PM

A subscription to NYBOT is $55.00/mo.!!!!

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 1:35:33 PM

In the weeks ahead and no later than Friday, August 29, NYBOT will offer Russell 2000 full-sized and mini futures contracts on the ICE electronic platform. The Russell 2000 Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer of the US small cap stock sector, and it includes the 2000 smallest securities in the Russell 3000 Index. Year-to-date in 2007, over 20 million futures and options contracts on the Russell 2000 Index have traded on US exchanges alone.

NYBOT's Russell 2000 Index futures contracts, both full-size and mini, will be available for trading on the ICE electronic platform from 8:00 p.m. Eastern time to 4:15 p.m. Eastern time on typical trading days. The platform is available for order entry fifteen minutes before the opening of trading.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 1:34:38 PM

Did you all know that Russell 2000 index futures and options on the futures is moving to the ICE exchange? "ATLANTA, GA (June 18, 2007) -IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), the leading electronic energy marketplace and soft commodity exchange, announced today it has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Russell Investment Group to offer futures and options on futures contracts based on the company's industry-leading U.S. equity indexes, including the Russell 1000. Index, Russell 2000. Index and Russell 3000. Index, as well as the related value and growth indexes offered by Russell."

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 1:18:42 PM

Fair Value for the S&P 500 today is $12.58.

HL Camp & Co. has their computers set for program buying at $13.72 and set for program selling at $11.14.

QCharts' symbols are INDEX:PREM.X and INDEX:EPREM.X

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 1:15:27 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 1:05:02 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 1:01:26 PM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) Daily Interval chart with 5 most recent bullish% shifts noted at this Link

Should have "cloned" that downward trend from February, placed it at the 6/20/07 high.

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 12:56:40 PM

Speaking of the iPhone, this cartoon was in today's Slate email: Link

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 12:45:22 PM

May as well blast the iPhone as we wait for the Fed :)

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 12:44:56 PM

Keene and RB - I think there has been so much hype about the iPhone it will be a huge disappointment once everyone gets their hands on it. I heard yesterday on NPR (yes I listen to NPR) that you have to go through 6 layers before you can place a call. That would be enough for me to NOT buy it.

Also it does not have a keyboard and that would take some getting used to. It has a virtual keyboard.

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 12:28:04 PM

Noted your rant vs. cingular this morning and was wondering whether you have an opinion on a) whether Iphone people will be really ticked off because their great phones are on a lousy system (b) whether and to what extent ATT/cingular might benefit from the Iphone craze. When and if you have a chance i'd like to get your take.

Was I ranting? I guess I was. Yesterday's angst with AT&T/Cingular has been an ongoing issue and I'm just building up enough evidence for their customer service people to convince them that the reliability of their system is not sufficient to warrant them charging me a contract cancellation fee. Wish me luck.

You raise an interesting question about the iPhone and AT&T/Cingular. Actually I have no complaints about my phone service with ATT/C and in fact highly recommend it. Therefore I think it will be strictly a hardware issue. If Apple doesn't live up to the hype then people will be very frustrated, and I suppose ATT/C will take the brunt of the complaints. What impact that will have on their stock is pure speculation. If the phone works well then it should be a good boost for ATT/C since they have good service already.

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 12:17:51 PM

The little ascending wedge idea for the 5th wave of the move up from yesterday's low might look something like this on the DOW 5-min chart: Link A choppy move higher could be the end of the first leg up and then it will be followed by a pullback correction into tomorrow before proceeding higher into next week.

An alternate interpretation to this pattern is what's called a leading 4th wave where this choppy consolidation is the 4th wave correction with an upward slope. That says we'll see a strong move out the top of the pattern so if that were to happen, say post FOMC, it would probably mean a rally of about another 80 points from wherever it ended its pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 12:20:29 PM

NDX, OEX, SPX, NYSE, OTC and DJIA at this Link ...

For the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % (BPNDX), it recently achieved a "high" measure of 74% on 5/09/07 and again on 06/01/07-6/06/07. On 06/07/07, it reversed 3-boxes (or 6% from 74%). It would currently take a 74% measure to reverse back up. It would take a 76% measure to achieve a "buy signal" and achieve "bull confirmed" status. It would currently take a 52% measure to exceed the recent March low measure of 54%.

For the S&P 100 Bullish % (BPOEX), it recently gave an additional "buy signal" on 4/25/07 at 84%. It would currently take a measure of 82% to reverse 3-boxes lower from 88% (even though it has had 89% of 100 stocks achieving buy signals, we measure 2% box). It would take a 66% measure for this market to generate a "sell signal" and turn bear confirmed.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 12:08:52 PM

The DOW cannot break its 50EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 12:06:14 PM

All the major American markets are on a buy now. Interestingly though the DAX, our leading market so far, is not on a buy. Link

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 12:02:40 PM

The way this market is climbing higher now as we move closer to the FOMC announcement gives me the impression that it's going to be a sell-the-news event. Whenever I see price chopping its way higher after a big move it's usually an ending pattern.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 11:58:29 AM

My goodness gracious Crude gave us the BEST entry yesterday at $67.00/bl. All my funds were tied up in other positions and did not have anything left. How sad! Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 11:58:06 AM

Major Market Bullish % Reversal Alert! ... Yesterday's action did have Dorsey/Wrights broad S&P 500 Bullish % (BPSPX) reversing lower to "bull correction" status Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 11:46:40 AM

Major Market Bullish % Reversal Alert! ... Yesterday's action did have Dorsey/Wright's very broad NYSE Bullish % (BPNYSE) reversing lower to "bear alert" status Link

VERY similar levels of risk to most recent 03/01/07 reversal lower (67.03%). Then on 04/03/07, reversed back up at 68.01%. Recent bullish % high was 6/05/07 at 74.76%.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 11:35:57 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy fizzled last winter but it wasn't quite as bad as earlier data portrayed, according to a report Thursday that depicted slightly stronger growth because of an upward revision to exports.

Gross domestic product rose at a 0.7% annual rate January through March, the Commerce Department reported. The new estimate for first-quarter GDP reflected a revision up from a previously reported 0.6% increase. Yet, growth was a far cry from the fourth-quarter's 2.5% climb

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 11:35:09 AM

Trying a short this close to the FED is probably not a good idea. Trading earlier was Ok but not this close so let's take that short off the table.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 11:30:35 AM

ER short at 845.80. alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 11:30:27 AM

Manpower (MAN) $93.72 +0.54% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 11:30:01 AM

Immigration Bill Fails To Proceed In US Senate

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 11:25:36 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 11:17:01 AM

Oracle (ORCL) $19.99 +1.52% ... notable new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 11:16:58 AM

Patience, only 3 more hours of this (wink).

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 11:06:00 AM

ER's PDH is 846.20 and the sellers are having a hard time breaking through that level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 11:03:07 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:57:06 AM

So far the last stop adjustment I made was not a good idea. :(

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:55:48 AM

Today's Global Economic Data Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:52:14 AM

VIX.X 15.53 (unch)

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:50:54 AM

Remains to be seen if 848.20 is tagged before the target.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:50:28 AM

I was thinking I should not have made that last adjustment to 847.80 and left the stop at 848.20. I am quite aggressive on lowering my stop and sometimes I get too aggressive but usually I have found that to be a good thing.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:50:17 AM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in OLN.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:47:21 AM

Stopped at 847.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:46:30 AM

Swing trade bullish call alert ... for an additional Olin Corp. OLN Jan $20 Call (OLN-AD) at the offer of $2.00.

OLN $20.57 +2.38% ...

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:46:27 AM

Got to 847.70 so still in the short.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:44:42 AM

9 ticks at risk now.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:43:58 AM

Lower stop to 847.80 alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:43:06 AM


DJ- Home builder reports net loss of $148.7 million, or $1.93 a share, as firm takes pretax charge of $308.2 million related to inventory and joint-venture writedowns.

KBH $40.19 -0.59% ...

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:42:52 AM

ER using its PDH as support but YM is using its PDH as resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:39:50 AM

Swing high at 848.20 so raise that stop a tad to 848.3 alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:39:38 AM

VIX.X 15.55 +0.12% ...

VXN.X 17.20 -0.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:39:03 AM

Swing trade bullish call exit alert for the two (2) iShares Russell 2000 IWM July $83 Calls (IOW-GE) at the bid of $1.98.

IWM $83.52 -0.03% ...

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:38:10 AM

Lower stop to 848.20

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:37:54 AM

Target is 846.90 - 1.3 = 845.60 alert

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:37:01 AM

Triggered short at 846.90 stop is 848.6 for now.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:36:40 AM

ER short at 846.90 alert

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:34:44 AM


DJ- Cereal maker's profit rises 1% to $224 million, or 62c a share. Sales climb 6.9% to $3.06 billion, beating expectations. Firm forecasts 2008 profit in a range of $3.39 to $3.43 a share; Wall Street expects $3.44.

GIS $58.82 -1.05% ...

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 10:34:42 AM

TRIN to new daily highs at 1.21 and it is proving to be the indicator to watch today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:32:28 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table at this Link

Build of 99 Bcf

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:30:59 AM


DJ- Drugstore chain's net income rises to $27.6 million, or 4c a share, as the firm benefits from one-time items and higher profit margin. Revenue rises 2.8% to $4.46 billion. Analysts expected 1c loss on revenue of $4.67 billion.

RAD $6.45 +4.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:27:59 AM


DJ- Semiconductor equipment maker expects 2Q revenue and earnings at the low end of its earnings guidance of 42c to 45c a share on revenue of $410 million to $420 million. Wall Street is calling for 44c.

NVLS $28.76 -3.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:26:27 AM


DJ- Earnings climb to $570 million, or $1.03 a share, as sales jump 19% to $2.84 billion. Results aided by a strong agricultural season. On an adjusted basis, it earns $1.02 a share, beating expectations by 4c.

MON $67.04 +1.57% ...

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 10:26:01 AM

Thank you for your thorough commentary last evening (and every evening). I am a little puzzled that your analysis is forecasting a bullish outcome for the indexes, but not for the tran or the bix. What will be doing the heavy lifting for the indexes if those two do not participate? Thanks as always.

This is an excellent question and observation. Without the banks you have to wonder how the market can sustain a rally. So my answer is a two-parter.

First, if the broader market is going to rally to something more than a minor new high (and I consider SPX 1557 a minor new high) then I think the banks and Trannies will participate in making new highs as well. I had mentioned for the banks in last night's Wrap that they could be in a larger ascending wedge which would mean a choppy move higher, probably into August if SPX is to rally to the 1600 area by then.

Second, if the broader market is only going to make a minor new high then I don't think the banks and Trannies will participate, just as the banks did not make a new high on June 1st with the broader market. It's that kind of bearish non-confirmation that is giving us a heads up that something's not right with this rally.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:24:23 AM


DJ- Retailer reports net income of $104.6 million, or 38c a share, as result meet recent warning. Revenue increases 11% to $1.55 billion. CEO says the company continues to see 'challenging' environment.BBBY $36.31 -3.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:21:48 AM


DJ- Oil giant says it will delay its $3.5 billion Tahiti project in the Gulf of Mexico because of metallurgical problems in the mooring shackles of its drilling rig. The project had carried a mid-2008 completion date.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:20:32 AM


DJ- Jobless claims fall by 13,000 to 313,000 in the week ended June 23, reversing three-straight weekly increases, with prior week's gain revised higher by 2,000. Analysts expected latest claims to fall by 9,000. Four-week average rises by 1,000 to 316,000.

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 10:16:33 AM

I'm getting that sideways kind of feeling. It's looking like a good time to put the mouse aside and find something else to do until post FOMC, which announces at 2:15.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:13:53 AM


DJ- U.S. gross domestic product is revised up to 0.7% from 0.6%, in 1Q, but remains sharply below the 2.5% gain posted in 4Q. The slight uptick is tied to an upward revision in exports. Economists expected a slightly larger revision, up to 0.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:12:40 AM


DJ- U.S. private-equity firm postpones plans to list a company investing in assets such as residential-mortgage-backed securities and corporate loans. Spokeswoman says delay is due to filing of offering supplement, which requires regulatory approval. She declines to say whether the supplement would affect pricing or if delay has anything to do with current credit-market conditions. Separately, Cambridge Place plans to close its Caliber hedge fund after losses in U.S. subprime market.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 10:04:05 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 9:59:18 AM

So I am cautiously bullish.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 9:58:27 AM

TRIn above 1.00 at 1.16. This is a out of the ordinary for the TRIN on bullish days. HMMM

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 9:56:52 AM

AD line is now +750 so it is officially into bull territory.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 9:54:04 AM

LSI Corp. (LSI) $8.00 -7.40% ... Percentage loser in chips.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 9:53:15 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $160.93 +2.41% Link ... New all-time high.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 9:53:11 AM

Ford Motor (F) $9.51 +.47% ... notable 52-weeker at the big board. Most active issue early.

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 9:49:32 AM

Each of the 4 major indices broke their downtrend lines yesterday but the DOW is the one that is still the closest to it. Therefore a retest of it could provide earlier support, currently near 13368: Link . If the others are going to retest their broken trend lines then it would be a much deeper retracement this morning and I'm not so sure we'll see that.

Jeff Bailey : 6/28/2007 9:49:07 AM

General Motors Selling Allison Transmission for $5.6 Billion

GM $38.03 +1.65% ...

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 9:41:59 AM

No market has broken its overnight high yet but I feel the pressure building.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 9:38:21 AM

AD line is +476 - neutral

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 9:28:59 AM

I have talked about a bearish signal is a CLOSE below 1490 and as you can see yesterday it traded below 1490 but it did not close below. This just goes to show how important it is to have a close before you see a bearish or bullish signal. Link

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 9:15:53 AM

DOW was not able to break its 50EMA yesterday. Link

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 9:15:51 AM

For those of you who are Fib challenged (wink), a 38% retracement of yesterday afternoon's rally, as shown on this ES 10-min chart, would be at 1513.25: Link For YM it's at 13476. This retracement is assuming we're going to get a small 4th wave correction before heading higher in a 5th wave. The interesting thing about the pattern for NQ, which was a stronger rally yesterday, is that it stopped at the level where it had two equal legs up (at 1956): Link That raises the possibility that we'll see a stronger pullback.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 9:14:55 AM

Yesterday was an unbelievable day and does make me think that support may not break this week. :) Link

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 9:11:31 AM

Sideways consolidation at PDHs tells me we will probably see a push higher before lower. Notice that YM was the only market to not break its PDH and has taken a deeper retracement than the other three. Link

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 9:07:14 AM

Lynne emailed me yesterday about a post I made yesterday. Apparently I posted that "all the markets were 'not' on buy signals." Of course that was supposed to be ""all the markets were 'now' on buy signals." Thank you Lynne. Funny how one little old letter can totally change the meaning of a sentence.

Jane Fox : 6/28/2007 9:02:49 AM

Yesterday I expected a bullish day that would challenge PDHs. That did happen. However, I was also expecting to see support break this week and what I did not expect was the kind of bullishness we saw yesterday. Needless to say that now throws a monkey wrench into my "support will break this week theory."

Keene Little : 6/28/2007 8:45:20 AM

Bond and equity futures have pulled back some from their overnight highs. Equity futures made new highs above yesterday's close but have pulled back and now all are in the red. I don't expect much of a pullback but more of a consolidation instead. For a ballpark number watch for a 38% retracement of yesterday afternoon's rally leg.

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