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OI Technical Staff : 6/29/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 7:59:12 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jun'07 Trade Blotter of CLOSED Trades at this Link

Worst trade of the month in my opinion was TLT.

Best trade of the month was ACH long, which resulted from the still open ACH-WF.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 7:33:48 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 6:33:53 PM

I'll check to see if it is 90 points or not. Usually 50% of the decline, which would be 95 points.

What's 5 points between friends?

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 6:28:37 PM

Q3'07 Trading Collars and Circuit-Breakers at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 6:20:36 PM

Check out TRIN from 03:30 (1.90) to the close.

Somebody big wanted some 1, 2 and 3-lettered stocks to close above a level for the quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 6:05:51 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 4:46:57 PM

You too Jane!

Get some rest, review that trade blotter and maybe make some adjustments.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 4:40:40 PM

2nd Quater '07 and '06 Bond Underwriting Comparisons

High Yield Corporate Link

Global Bonds Link

US Investment Grade Link

US Mortgage-Backed Link

US Federal Credit Agency Link

US Asset Backed Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 4:25:36 PM

European Markets at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 4:11:31 PM

Everyone have a great weekend. Next week should be pretty slow trading but heck what do I know. Mr. Market has certainly proven to me this week that it will do just what it wants and does not care one iota what I think. :)

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 4:11:02 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart with MONTHLY and WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 4:09:48 PM

Here's the updated SPX 60-min chart that I've been using to show my expectation for another leg up into next week. If we get two equal legs up that will take us to SPX 1527 and could be another test of the broken uptrend line from March (failed at the line at today's high) on Tuesday or Thursday (Wednesday is the holiday). The bearish wave count says we'll then get a strong sell off after that. The bullish wave count says SPX will get back above the trend line and head for new all-time highs. So that trend line will be the key next week (assuming we continue the rally). Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 4:06:26 PM

I speak the truth .... I was surely looking at the extension of downward trend on the YM to MONTHLY S1 thinking "that's today's close."

But old trades remember shifted my sentiment.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 4:04:28 PM

Heee, heee, heee Jane ... Almost profiled a short at 03:30 in the YM, but erased it.

Couldn't short the YM at 13,405 and old bear target from Tuesday I thought to myself. Especially if market participants were going to set up for a bullish Monday.

Nope ... get some Ford right back at bull entry after being treated so right by it and GM.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 4:02:57 PM

So I guess I have to qualify my 4:00 post to the small caps are going crazy.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 4:02:24 PM

I am not seeing the same kind of action in the large caps though.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 4:01:43 PM

ER made a new daily low right at 4:00 and has reversed again.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 4:00:52 PM

What the heck is going on! After hours on a Summer Friday and the markets are going crazy!

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 3:54:56 PM

Now it looks like we're going to get an impulsive move up off the low. Talk about volatility! They played the bears masterfully by sucking them in on that flush and then reversing it hard on them. The pullback from today's high actually counts well as a corrective move down (double zigzag) and that means the pullback should be over and now we've started next week's rally. Look for a pullback first thing Monday morning as an opportunity to get long.

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 3:46:06 PM

This price action is really messing up the nice neat little EW pattern I had all mapped out for the market. I hate it when it doesn't listen to me.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 3:42:21 PM

Delphi Workers Approve Contract

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 3:42:21 PM

Nice short covering spike there. Final end-of-month buying I suppose.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 3:41:51 PM

Swing trade long alert for 300 shares, just over 1/4 position for $10k=Full, for Ford Motor (F) at the offer of $9.40.

Same stop and target as before.

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 3:40:19 PM

Looks like the higher odds (continued sell off) loses today--bouncing into the final 1/2 hour here.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 3:37:07 PM

And once again the market does the unexpected and reverses almost all the bullishness we saw on Wednesday. Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 3:33:45 PM

I was long some IWM July Calls from Wednesday and I just bailed on them.

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 3:30:37 PM

With this kind of drop in the afternoon it's common for the selling to continue into the close so I wouldn't be anxious to buy the dip here. SPX 1491 is going to need to hold on this pullback otherwise something more bearish is afoot here.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 3:28:29 PM

That reversal would have been long at 840.60 with a target at 840.60 + 1.30 = 841.90. It did get to a high of 841.60 so it would not have been a winner but probably b/e.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 3:27:39 PM

Morgan Stanley (MS) $82.98 -2.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 3:27:10 PM

S&P Puts Morgan Stanley's ACES SPC 2006-8 CI A7 Rtg on Watch Negative

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 3:24:57 PM

Reminder: 1/2-day trade on Tuesday of next week and markets closed on Wednesday in observance of Independence Day.

StockTrader's Almanac shows historically bullish equity day on Monday.

Dow +76.2% of time, S&P Up 76.2% of time and NASDAQ up 66.7% of time.

Was "back on track" with bull/bear heads this week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 3:18:06 PM

Very different 03:00 reaction despite lower Treasury YIELD close.

Taking some notes today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 3:16:44 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio might not make X by the close.

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 3:15:22 PM

Well I said if it doesn't bounce it's going to acclerate lower. I guess we got our answer. Not bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 3:13:40 PM

Bear raid ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 3:11:54 PM

Valero (VLO) $73.53 -0.12% ... backfills this morning's gap higher.

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 3:08:46 PM

Hmmm...NYSE reporting 46.8% for last week's program trading. We know if it is calculated the old way it would be 93.6%. Only 6.4% of all shares traded on the NYSE were NOT in program trades! Much had to do with index rebalancing I am sure. Last year for the same week it was 92%. Amazing! The crooks are still in control.

Thanks for the data Joe. This ties in with the markettells observation I mentioned earlier (12:19) that it seems the public (retail) is participating less while the institutions have taken over the bulk of the trading, even more than the ratio once was.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 3:08:35 PM

Day trade long cancel order alert ... for the RFY-GP

RIMM $198.93 ...

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 3:08:05 PM

ER is once again oversold but I ain't trading the reversal. I was stopped twice trying that one and I will not try a 3rd time.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 3:05:11 PM

McMillan's weekly commentary - The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has clearly carved out a trading range on its chart. There was heavy resistance in the 1535-1540 area a couple of weeks ago. When that couldn't be penetrated, the market fell rather sharply, eventually bouncing off the 1485-1490 area a couple of times making that a support area. Until proven otherwise, traders can utilize this information -- buying near support and selling near resistance. Eventually, the market will break out one way or the other, but until it does, there is plenty of room within this trading range to take advantage of it.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals (see Figures 2 & 3). These intermediate-term indicators are the most bearish in our set of indicators. For this reason, we are thinking the eventual breakout will be on the downside, unless these put-call ratios improve. For now, they are rising from low (extremely overbought) levels, which means they are on strong sell signals.

Market breadth (advances minus dec lines) has been rather negative as well. When the market fell last week, breadth was extremely poor for several days. This produced an oversold condition in breadth oscillators.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have been extremely volatile as well. They broke out to the upside when the market fell, thereby establishing an uptrend. That was bearish, in our opinion. However, $VIX got a bit ahead of itself, reaching nearly 19 on Tuesday, before collapsing below 16 on Wednesday. That is enough of a reversal to qualify as a spike peak buy signal in $VIX. Those typically are quite reliable buy signals as well.

So, the indicators are at odds with each other to a certain extent. The $SPX chart is neutral within the trading range. The equity-only put- call ratios are bearish. Volatility has given a spike peak buy signal, and the breadth oscillators are somewhat positive -- having moved from deeply oversold to a more neutral status. This is the kind of mixed picture that one can expect to find when the market is trading within a range. So, this is not unusual to see.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 3:03:26 PM

Dateline CNN - Police and security sources say they found bomb components in a second car in central London hours after deactivating a device in the city's entertainment district.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 3:02:38 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:59:18 PM

And sure enough I saved 1 tick on that stop. No more reversal trades for me today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 2:58:41 PM

Hmmmm ... on Monday, the 10-year yield went out at its lows of the session.

Majors were at their lows too at 03:00, but got a small bounce.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:54:54 PM

I was thinking of lowering that stop to 844.30 like I did on the last trade but thought heh I was stopped anyway so why take on 1 more tick of risk. May live to regret though.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:53:45 PM

They got us again stopped at 844.40

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:52:37 PM

Got to a low of 844.50

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 2:49:16 PM

Several sessions ago the sentiment from one trader was that the end of the bond rally marked the end of the stock rally.

Now bonds firm in recent sessions, yet major averages waver.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:47:36 PM

Now raise the stop to 844.40

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:45:43 PM

I was very tempted to raise the stop to 844.40 but the market is noisy today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 2:45:42 PM

10-year yield ($TNX.X) ... down 8.3 bp at 5.035%

15-minutes to close. Boy, not sure 5.00% today.

Defensive? Or bullish for equities?

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:44:29 PM

Ok Raise stop to 843.80

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:44:07 PM

I am very hesitant to raise that stop because this trade is feeling too much like the one before.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 2:43:43 PM

Maybe sentiment has shifted positive, with shorts thinking they were trapped? $DWC 15,241 +0.03% ...

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:41:00 PM

Long from 845.20 and the stop will remain at 843.40.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:38:02 PM

And once again we hit a low of XXX.50 and our stop was at XXX.40. This time it looks like we are OK.

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 2:36:53 PM

This is how it might look for SPX if we get a bounce and then another leg lower on Monday: Link

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 2:34:04 PM

If the low for today is in and we get a bounce that retraces 50% of today's decline, that would take prices for SPX and DOW back up to the most recent bounce (the end of the 4th wave correction in today's decline). That's a typical resistance/support level for a correction. And from there we should get another leg down as part of a larger 3-wave pullback into Monday. Chart to follow.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 2:33:47 PM

Technicals can drive sentiment.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 2:33:06 PM

Excellent, excellent comments Jane.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:28:59 PM

I can feel the sentiment change because I am not getting the explosive counter trend moves I have learned to love so much.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 2:28:43 PM

Wishire 5000 broke to new session low at about 2:12 PM

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 2:27:36 PM

Can see how sentiment has changed just since this morning.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:27:32 PM

The next "stop" for the stop will be 843.80 but not yet.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:23:18 PM

Triggered long at 845.20

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:23:03 PM

Target is 845.20 + 1.3 = 846.50

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:22:30 PM

Stop probably should be below daily lows but I am not willing to take on that much risk. So stop will be 843.40

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:21:43 PM

Let's try this again Long ER at 845.20 alert

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 2:21:29 PM

This move down could be finishing today's decline. I think we could be setting up for a bounce now that will correct today's decline. So maybe back up into positive territory for the close. But it will need to bounce from here otherwise just the opposite might happen--an acceleration lower.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:19:38 PM

The only market that has not broken its PDLs is NQ. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 2:12:36 PM

RIMM Day trader's 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 2:11:59 PM

This is not looking good for the bulls folks. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 2:03:41 PM

$180 + $21.10 = 201.10

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 2:03:11 PM

Day trade long setup alert ... for one (1) of the Research in Motion RIMM July $180 Calls (RFY-GP) should the stock trade $200.60.

Stop would go $198.00 with target of $204.

RIMM $199.33

RFY-GP $21.10 offer right now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 1:51:42 PM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $84.91 +0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 1:50:49 PM

Baker Hughes: Weekly North American Rig Count Rises 1.5%

DJ- The number of rigs drilling for oil and natural gas in North America rose by 30, or 1.5%, to 2,006, according to a weekly update by Baker Hughes Inc. [s; bhi] on Friday.

The U.S. rig count increased by four from last week to 1,775, while the offshore rig count fell by three to 77.

The Canadian rig count rose by 26 to 231.

In addition, the number of gas rigs fell by 6 to 1,489, while the oil rig count rose by 10 to 281, Baker Hughes reported.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 1:49:22 PM

DJ- European Leveraged Loan Index Hits New Lows

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 1:41:20 PM

Mid-point of this month's SPY range is $151.23. Today is the last day of the quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 1:35:35 PM

That sure looks "end of quarter" ... Just looking at SPY again. That recent relative low of 06/07/07 was $149.06. The most recent relative low was a penny below our 19.1% retracement of $148.07 at $148.06

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 1:29:17 PM

SPY $150.58 +0.13% .... slipped back below that 5/11/07 close again.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 1:28:15 PM

"Bad tick" in SPY to $113.35

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 1:26:35 PM

Looks like that long will make it to full profit now.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 1:25:57 PM

ER did make that right shoulder but I miscalculated how far it would retrace.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 1:20:13 PM

Wilshire 5000 (DWC) 15,225.82 -0.06% ... slips back under 19.1% retracement of 03/05/07 low close to recent 06/04/07 high close. Probes its 50-day SMA.

Sentiment could shift negative on break below yesterday's "doji" low.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 1:18:37 PM

Stopped at 845.30

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 1:17:24 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 1:15:45 PM

Now a low of 845.40 to funny. I will not move my stop anymore. If we get stopped so be it.

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 1:12:37 PM

I'm thinking anothe minor new low, maybe after a little more consolidation here, to give us a 5-wave move down from today's high, and then a bounce to correct this decline to be followed by another leg down into the end of the day/Monday.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 1:12:37 PM

I have moved my stop down 1 tick to 845.30 alert

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 1:10:40 PM

Just made a low of 845.50 so still long.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 1:07:36 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 1:03:17 PM

Long from 847.20 with a stop at 845.40. I want to move that stop up but we have not moved into profit enough for me to do so.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 12:51:14 PM

Keene (12:13:31) ... Not really, or at least not ISEE data (don't even know what it is to be truthful), and I don't view short interest, or VIX.X as sentiment data.

Sentiment can be emotional, or "I don't believe it" logic.

The best "sentiment" data comes from intra-day news events, and the reaction to the news.

Another good one is to LISTEN, then WATCH and see if there are convictions behind the "news" or "commentary."

Do I short a stock, or go long the stock because short interest is high? Who is right, who is wrong?

The "charts don't lie."

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:47:30 PM

What you are looking for here is a reverse H&S and you do not want to taken out on the right shoulder.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:46:14 PM

It is not nice having a stop so far away but we need to give these trades room to breath.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:45:09 PM

I will be moving the stop up as soon as we move into profit.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:43:54 PM

Target is 847.20 + 1.30 = 848.50

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:43:35 PM

Triggered long at 847.20

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:43:17 PM

It is very surprising how strong the bears have been the last two days. The bulls were able to carry the day on Wednesday but yesterday and today they seem to have lost their staying power.

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 12:41:41 PM

So far the pullback looks too short in time which might mean we're completing just wave-a down in what will become a larger a-b-c pullback. That would mean a bounce to correct today's decline followed by another leg down. So be careful of the chop and whipsaws.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:41:33 PM

If triggered long at 847.20 stop will be 845.40.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 12:39:01 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold bearish position in XLF.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 12:38:00 PM

Swing trade put alert! ... for one (1) additional XLF Aug $37 Put (XLF-TK) at the offer of $1.35.

XLF $36.15 -0.63% ...

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:37:37 PM

ER long at 847.20 alert

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 12:34:23 PM

A 50% retracement of this week's rally in the DOW is at 13392. The 2nd leg down today would equal 162% of the 1st leg down at 13394. Therefore watch that level for potential support. The equivalent level for SPX is not quite as tight as far as Fib correlation. A 50% retracement is at 1500.86. The 2nd leg down becomes 162% of the 1st at 1502.80. So that's the target zone for potential support.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:32:28 PM

Long ER at 847.60 alert

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:31:40 PM

Obviously ER is not ready for a counter trend move yet.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:30:18 PM

But you have get be careful that the move is indeed a counter-trend move and not just noise. That is the tricky part.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:28:49 PM

ER can make really nice countertrend moves.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:26:53 PM

Let's try a long off this oversold - long at 848.20 alert

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:21:41 PM


Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:20:56 PM

Egads markets are almost to their PDLs. Link

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 12:19:06 PM

For more info on sentiment, this is from Markettells.com: It's interesting to note that another gauge of investor participation is also in a longer-term decline. Pull up the long-term chart of the QQQQ Customer/Market Maker Ratio and note the 20-day moving average trading consistently below 1.0. This indicator divides daily QQQQ options volume attributable to customers by daily volume attributable to market makers, so readings below 1.0 mean market makers are accounting for an unusually large share of the volume.

In a healthy market, like we saw throughout most of the 2003-2006 period, this ratio will remain consistently over 1.0 as customers remain actively involved. But that participation has been noticeably absent over the last two months. June has been particularly weak, as we haven't seen a single day with a reading over 1.0. The sharp contraction in customer volume has sent the 20-day moving average down to its lowest level in over five years.

This suggests the public has not been behind this rally and has not been very bullish. This could be construed, from a contrarian sense, to be bullish. But the data supports the idea that smart money has been using the Qs for trading/hedging due to its liquidity. Therefore the lower participation rate from the retail crowd may not be telling us anything. And that says much of the normal sentiment data we've used in the past, including put/call ratios, may not be as reliable as it once was.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:16:41 PM

Sellers have arrived.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 12:14:39 PM

Komag Inc. (KOMG) $31.90 +7.84% ... DJ- Shares surged after Western Digital (WDC) $19.28 -1.28% agreed to acquire the company for about $1 billion. Separately, Komag cut its second-quarter revenue outlook, prompting it to project a "substantial" operating loss for the period.

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 12:13:31 PM

Jeff, I know you sometimes take a look at sentiment data. Have you got a feel for what the market looks like in that regard. I get different measures depending on what I look at. I asked Marc the same question and I know he likes the ISEE data. He feels sentiment is pretty neutral right now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 12:10:10 PM

Current OPEN MM profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 12:05:41 PM

Palm, Inc. (PALM) $15.92 -3.86% ... DJ- reported fiscal fourth-quarter net earnings of $15.4 million, or 15 cents a share, down 44% from $27.2 million, or 25 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding items, the company earned 17 cents a share. Revenue in the quarter ended May 31 fell to $401.3 million from $403.1 million.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 12:05:38 PM

American Home Mortgage (AHM) $18.50 -11.52% ... Expects a second-quarter loss on "substantial" charges for credit-related expenses and withdrew its 2007 earnings guidance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 12:01:55 PM

Manpower (MAN) $92.15 -1.71% ... slips below its 21-day SMA ($92.35). Stock has NOT closed below this short-term SMA since moving above on 04/09/07.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 12:01:25 PM

It does look like the US$ could bounce from here but I agree with Keene this is not bullish. it has closed below the support from last December and is has also just closed below two important MAs, the 50 and 20. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:57:17 AM

Kid just about wiped me out in K-Mart the other night with those shoes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:56:41 AM

Heelys resistricted shareholders must view stock's price as undervalued.

Remember ICE several months ago.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:54:18 AM

Heelys (HLY) DJ- Said it has withdrawn its registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a secondary public offering of 4.5 million shares by some of its stockholders.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:53:00 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $27.96 +0.39% Link ...

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 11:52:08 AM

Jane, not only that potentially bullish descending wedge for gold but I'm also watching the US dollar closely here. It's pulled back as far as it can without turning more bearish: Link

If the dollar closes below 82 it will probably head to below 81 and I would expect gold to get a strong bounce in that case. I'll gladly switch sides and join you on the bright side of the shiny metal if that happens. I'm still short gold but my stop is just above the downtrend line near 655.50 (this morning's high was 654.30): Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:51:41 AM

Good Gravy!

Black Box (BBOX) $41.81 +15.17% Link ... DJ- Reported preliminary fiscal fourth-quarter net earnings of $6.97 million, or 39 cents a share, up from $4.66 million, or 26 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding certain items, the company earned 71 cents a share versus 53 cents a share last year.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 11:50:59 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Friday, with portfolio managers making last-minute purchases as the first half of the trading year winds to a close, while tame inflation data and Apple Inc.'s launch of the iPhone helped lift sentiment.

"We're seeing a quarter-end rally," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. "This might continue next week given that many people will take off for the [July Fourth] holiday, and trading volumes will be low."

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:42:24 AM

RIMM $199.60 +20.57% ... GREEN #2 at $200.20.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:41:00 AM

I don't know about that Keene (RIMM). Stocks that gap like that signal a "surprise" of some sort to the MARKET.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 11:38:12 AM

Keene, don't look (smile). There is a nice little bullish wedge forming on Gold's daily chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:39:27 AM

Kia Motors Says Bond Sale Cancellation Won't Affect Georgia Plant

DJ- Kia Motors Corp.'s (000270.SE) recent cancellation of a $500 million bond sale won't affect the company's plans to build an auto plant in west Georgia, a company spokesman said Thursday.

Alex Fedorak said the cancellation won't affect plans for construction in West Point. "I can tell you that that's not even an issue."

The South Korean automaker joined a series of other companies in pulling bond offerings. The retreat is viewed by Wall Street as a sign investors are skittish about riskier assets.

The $1.2 billion factory in West Point is expected to employ 2,500 people. Suppliers are expected to hire 2,000 more.

The plant is scheduled to be completed in 2009.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 11:35:51 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury bonds rose on Friday, sending yields lower, after news that core consumer prices increased just 0.1%, as expected in May. In recent action, the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond was up 11/32 at 95 22/32, yielding 5.059%. Core prices -- which exclude food and energy costs -- are up just 1.9% in the past 12 months, just inside the central bank's unofficial 1% to 2% target range. Link

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 11:34:21 AM

Jeff, just like the good ol' days for RIMM, eh? I wonder if it will end the same. Me thinks so but then I know that doesn't come as a surprise that I think that (grin).

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 11:33:44 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Business activity expanded strongly in the Chicago region in June but at a slower pace than in May, according to a private survey of businesses released Friday. The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 60.2% from 61.7% in May. Readings over 50% indicate more firms are growing than contracting. Economists expected the index to fall to 57.5%. The new-orders index fell to 65.7% from 71.1%, the prices-paid index fell to 68.1% from 70.2% and the employment index fell to 52.7% from 57.3%.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 11:33:12 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Spending on U.S. construction projects jumped 0.9% in May, the most since February 2006, boosted by hefty gains in spending on federal and private nonresidential construction projects.

The gain outpaced economists' expectations. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting construction spending to rise by just 0.1% in May.

Spending on federal projects climbed by 4.1%, the most since October 2006, the Commerce Department reported.

Private nonresidential construction spending rose by 2.7% in May. Public construction spending, meanwhile, rose by 2.2%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:26:36 AM

Palm, Inc. (PALM) $15.82 -4.46% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:25:38 AM

Good Gravy!

Research in Motion (RIMM) $197.49 +19.25% Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 11:24:57 AM

Interesting to note that the Wilshire 5000's upward blue trendline has not yet been breached. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:24:37 AM

Crocs (CROX) $42.91 +3.99% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:23:59 AM

Heely's (HLYS) $26.64 +7.81% Link ... Upgraded at CIBC World Markets to "sector outperform" today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:20:53 AM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Note: It would take a closing measure of 48.00% for the NYSE's 5-day NH/NL to reverse back higher.

It would take a closing measure of 58.00% for the NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL to reverse back higher.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 11:12:50 AM

Well I guess this is telling us the buyers have taken the - HMMMM bulls by the horns. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 11:03:09 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 10:57:39 AM

More input re: our conversation about ATT/Cingular service and the iPhone yesterday:
The iphone may bring more people to AT&T/Cingular. I just switched from Verizon to AT&T myself because Verizon has no service in Grand Central Station in New York and practically no service in 95% of Vermont. I got the Samsung Blackjack and I am very happy with it. I don't need any data service on my cell phone but AT&T has Xpress mail which allows me to sync the email on my Blackjack with Outlook on my desktop. Works great and cheap.

I was thinking of buying the AT&T stock. Wished I picked it up when it was $18. Now it is $40 and has a PE of over 20. Will it break out of the trading range for the last three months?

I agree with you Peter about the reliability and coverage of ATT vs. the others. After trying a few I settled on ATT for my phone service a number of years ago and have been thoroughly pleased with it, especially as I travel the country. Where others have difficulty receiving a signal I do not. I highly recommend their phone service.

The potential problem is their internet service which is poor (great when it works, terrible when it doesn't--requires rebooting the computer to get it to "let go" of whatever tower it's looking for and go search for a new one, or so I'm told). The trouble is that it seems to be the same problem with all of them. So if the iPhone is going to be dependent on internet access for many of its features, it could be trouble.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 10:55:15 AM

Manpower (MAN) $92.38 -1.47% ... With Wednesday's reversal lower in both NYSE and SPX Bullish %, potential "bull trap" (triple top buy signal, with X just one box above, then quick reversal lower). Note sector status too and know what to look for, and what NEEDS to happen. Link

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 10:48:59 AM

The SPX 30-min chart that I posted last night (below, 11:09 PM, Link ) showed the parallel up-channel for price action since Wednesday's low. This morning's rally fits as the 5th wave of that rally. That interpretation calls for a pullback now to correct this week's rally and this 15-min chart zooms in a little on the rally and expected pullback: Link

I'm showing the use of the Fib retracements and time projections for the pullback. The database of price and time relationships between waves (courtesy elliottician.com) shows that a 2nd wave pullback will typically take a little less than half the time it took for the 1st wave and retrace a little less than half the price.

So that's what I'm showing on the chart--the vertical lines show time projection and assuming this morning's high is now the end of the 1st wave up from Wednesday, the 2nd wave pullback should finish at the end of today or first thing Monday. It should pull back to just above 1500.

Now I'm going to be watching to see how the pullback develops (assuming it has now started) and fine tune the projection as we get closer. The first thing it needs to do is break the uptrend, currently near 1507, to confirm the end of the 1st wave up. Then the pullback should make for a very good buying opportunity.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 10:38:25 AM

Swing trade short alert ... for 1/2 position in shares of Manpower (MAN) $92.60 -1.23% here. Stop goes $95.20, target $88.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 10:21:12 AM

Asian Markets: Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 10:05:12 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 10:04:29 AM

SPX 1518 coming up also.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 10:04:13 AM

I'd be staying long for now. Internals are very bullish. Link

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 10:04:00 AM

This morning's push higher fits well as the 5th wave in the rally from Wednesday and the DOW is approaching a 62% retracement of the decline from June 15th, at 13525, so be careful if you're long.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 9:55:15 AM

May Personal Spending +0.5% M/M ... consensus was +0.7%. Previously +0.5%.

May Personal Income +0.4% M/M ... consensus was +0.6%. Previously -0.2%.

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 9:50:13 AM

They're pushing the indices higher but MER is not joining and is even dropping. Something smells a little fishy here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/29/2007 9:46:42 AM

Olin Corp. (OLN) $21.00 +1.30% ... "X" gets the square.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 9:42:16 AM

AD line is a bullish +1292 and AD volume above 0 and climbing.

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 9:27:51 AM

Interestingly the Wilshire 5000 was not able to break the blue upward trendline. Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 9:24:07 AM

Here is the NAZ and like the ER it was able to close above the magenta 20EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 9:18:06 AM

SPX's candle from yesterday is ominous as well. Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 9:17:11 AM

The DOW is into some major congestion here but the candle from yesterday is ominous. Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 9:15:25 AM

Russell 2000 H&S is still in play. On Wednesday I began to think that the H&S would not confirm and that the bulls were just too strong to let that happen. To tell you the truth I was surprised by the strength of the bulls on Wednesday then surprised that they were not able to follow through so I'm not sure what is going to happen today. Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 9:05:03 AM

Gold up US$ down so these two are back in sync and as you can see they are in sync because Crude is helping Gold.

I find it quite interesting that the DAX is not challenging its ON highs just like the DOW. Link

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 8:59:12 AM

As you can see yesterday's range was pretty narrow even with the FED gyrations so when the overnight trading broke PDLs it was no big deal. However they all have regained their PDRs and NQ has even broken to a new ON high. Link

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 8:54:38 AM

Personal incomes declined, spending is up. Negative savings rate increased to 1.4% over the 1.2% in April. But, hey the core inflation rate is 1% (if you have to drive or eat - tough ). Let's rally.

John, I hope you're not trying to apply logic to this market (wink).

Jane Fox : 6/29/2007 8:50:31 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Core consumer prices increased just 0.1% as expected in May, the Commerce Department reported Friday, leaving core inflation within the Federal Reserve's comfort zone for a second straight month.

Core prices -- which exclude food and energy costs -- are up just 1.9% in the past 12 months, just inside the central bank's unofficial 1% to 2% target range.

It's the first time in three years that the core personal consumption price index has risen less than 2%. Core inflation had risen 2% in the year ending in April

Keene Little : 6/29/2007 8:43:08 AM

We've had a big bounce off the premarket lows, thanks primarily to the reaction to the 8:30 reports. Equity futures are at the high end of their overnight range which puts them about at the middle of the price range between yesterday's post-FOMC high and low.

So we don't have a lot to go on here as far as determining whether the market will push higher or if this morning's bounce will be followed by renewed selling to give us a larger pullback correction of the rally off Wednesday's low. Watch out for chop if we're in a correction.

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