Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 11:28:10 PM

Asian Markets: strong in early going.

$NIKK Link +54, or +0.30% at 18,201.

$HSI Link up 233, or +1.07% at 22,005.

$SSEC Link up 43, or +1.14% at 3,879.

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 10:41:45 PM

End of day re-posts:

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

There's an interesting alignment of trend lines and the Fib projection for two equal legs up for SPX from the June 27 low. The top of a parallel up-channel for the move up from June 27th intersects the Fib projection near 1527 at the end of the day tomorrow (Tuesday), which would be just slightly above the broken uptrend line from March: Link

That 1527 area will be important for the bears to hold--any higher and that would make for an excellent chance we'll see new all-time highs before this rally is over. A 78.6% retracement is at the same 1527 level and that's the "line in the sand" for retracements--any higher and you can expect a full retracement.

The way the market rallied today, after the big opening move, gives me somewhat of a bearish feeling about the pattern. It almost looks as if we're seeing a small ascending wedge develop. It looks small on the updated DOW 60-min chart but the setup remains very similar to the SPX chart: Link

The ascending wedge is pointing to the same level, 13578, for two equal legs up from June 27th. I don't show it on this chart but there's another internal Fib projection for the 3rd through 5th waves for the move up from Friday at the same 13578 (62% of an extended 1st wave). So there continue to be reasons why the bearish count could prevail. We should find out soon enough (after the holiday most likely).

Sticking with the daily charts for NDX and RUT will hopefully make it clearer where each could be headed (since the short term patterns are a choppy mess). NDX made it to the top of its potential diamond top pattern so now we'll see if the bulls can drive it higher or if it instead begins to pull back. Link

There are so many levels and reasons for resistance just above the RUT that it makes it a challenge figuring out which one will be the more important. If it can't make it to a new high and rolls back over then the bears win, especially with a drop below 820. In the meantime this could continue to chop its way higher. Link

Time for another look at CME and GOOG, especially GOOG since it's not far from what could be an important end to its rally. First CME--it's holding at its 200-dma and just barely holding onto trend lines, both a broken downtrend line from January and a shorter term uptrend line from May: Link

At this point, as long as CME doesn't break down from here (bearish wave count in that case), it looks like it could be in either an ending diagonal (ascending wedge) for might end up being a truncated 5th wave (to a lower high against its January high as shown in light green) or else it's in a very bullish wave count (dark green) that will easily take it to new all-time highs. A break below 508 would be a win for the bears and above 560 a win for the bulls and then we'd have to see just how bullish it would become.

I'm only showing one possibility for GOOG at the moment. I could draw in lots of others but it looks to me like it needs at least a small move higher, as shown on its daily chart: Link

The trend line along the highs since January 2006 is just overhead near 540 and that could be strong resistance to the current rally. If it's in an ascending wedge as I've drawn in (with the confirming bearish divergences) then I don't think it will head for the upper Fib projection at 554. But if it gets above 554 then the bulls own this one. If GOOG reaches 540 I'd try a short play there and if that ends up being the top in GOOG then I suspect the NDX and COMP will be close behind.

OI Technical Staff : 7/2/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 8:50:43 PM

Time for another look at CME and GOOG, especially GOOG since it's not far from what could be an important end to its rally. First CME--it's holding at its 200-dma and just barely holding onto trend lines, both a broken downtrend line from January and a shorter term uptrend line from May: Link

At this point, as long as CME doesn't break down from here (bearish wave count in that case), it looks like it could be in either an ending diagonal (ascending wedge) for might end up being a truncated 5th wave (to a lower high against its January high as shown in light green) or else it's in a very bullish wave count (dark green) that will easily take it to new all-time highs. A break below 508 would be a win for the bears and above 560 a win for the bulls and then we'd have to see just how bullish it would become.

I'm only showing one possibility for GOOG at the moment. I could draw in lots of others but it looks to me like it needs at least a small move higher, as shown on its daily chart: Link

The trend line along the highs since January 2006 is just overhead near 540 and that could be strong resistance to the current rally. If it's in an ascending wedge as I've drawn in (with the confirming bearish divergences) then I don't think it will head for the upper Fib projection at 554. If GOOG reaches 540 I'd try a short play there. But if it gets above 554 then the bulls own this one.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 6:27:28 PM

June'07 ISM Manufacturing Report Link

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 6:00:04 PM

There's an interesting alignment of trend lines and the Fib projection for two equal legs up for SPX from the June 27 low. The top of a parallel up-channel for the move up from June 27th intersects the Fib projection near 1527 at the end of the day tomorrow (Tuesday), which would be just slightly above the broken uptrend line from March: Link

That 1527 area will be important for the bears to hold--any higher and that would make for an excellent chance we'll see new all-time highs before this rally is over. A 78.6% retracement is at the same 1527 level and that's the "line in the sand" for retracements--any higher and you can expect a full retracement.

The way the market rallied today, after the big opening move, gives me somewhat of a bearish feeling about the pattern. It almost looks as if we're seeing a small ascending wedge develop. It looks small on the updated DOW 60-min chart but the setup remains very similar to the SPX chart: Link

The ascending wedge is pointing to the same level, 13578, for two equal legs up from June 27th. I don't show it on this chart but there's another internal Fib projection for the 3rd through 5th waves for the move up from Friday at the same 13578 (62% of an extended 1st wave). So there continue to be reasons why the bearish count could prevail. We should find out soon enough (after the holiday most likely).

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 5:40:58 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 5:08:47 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link and this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 4:19:58 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Raised stop on F. Established 1/4 bullish position in USEG.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 3:57:21 PM

Permian Basin Trust Paring Losses As Summer Temperatures Heat Up

PBT $13.07 -1.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 3:50:46 PM

European Markets Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 3:47:42 PM

Asian Markets Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 3:39:25 PM

Even though the US$ is on a freefall I don't think it will just slice through support at the May 1st yearly lows. What I think will happen is there will be a weak bounce, retest the magenta trendline and then plunge to new yearly lows. Link

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 3:36:38 PM

This is clearly a market that can't roll over. Either there are no sellers or are there are just enough buyers to keep the sellers away. We had another one-and-done kind of day. We'll have to see if the buyers can keep it levitated into the holiday tomorrow. Or did the holiday already begin?

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 3:32:09 PM

Here is the jtHMA spreadsheet reflecting how the markets are trading now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 3:32:04 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for 1/4 position in shares of US Energy (USEG) $5.64 +4.83% ... at the offer of $5.64 (limit $5.70). Stop goes $4.85, target $9.40.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 3:27:13 PM

US Energy (USEG) $5.62 +4.83% ... Company's board announcing $5 million stock buyback, effective immediately.

Also announces it has signed an exploration and area of mutual interest agreement with a Gulf Coast oil and gas exploration and production company. Under agreement, USEG expects to participate as a 20% interest partner in numerous wells that will be drilled over the next 3-5 years.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 3:26:20 PM

If you think today has been a slow moving day wait until tomorrow. You will need toothpicks to keep your eyes open.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 3:20:13 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $183.35 +9.15% ... surging. Still some room to bullish vertical count of $203.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 3:16:33 PM

AT&T (T) $41.79 +0.72% ... reverses morning losses. New 52-weeker!

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 3:14:06 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 3:02:30 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 3:00:31 PM

ES's PDHs (Friday's intraday high) was 1530.25 and today's intraday high so far has been 1530.25. ES does this all the time.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 2:57:00 PM

CNOOC (CEO) $115.30 +1.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 2:55:26 PM

VIX.X 15.51 -4.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 2:54:51 PM

PetroChina (PTR) alert! $150.00 +0.90% ...

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 2:47:15 PM

The DAX has not yet broken its overnight highs whereas the American markets left those highs in their dust early this morning. Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 2:43:33 PM

I think these intraday charts clearly show the inverse relationship between the US$ and Gold. Link

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 2:33:38 PM

There's really been no change to the charts that I posted last night and where price should be heading. This updated SPX 60-min chart shows price making progress towards the Fib projection near 1527 for two equal legs up from June 27th. Its broken uptrend line from March is currently near 1522 and should be resistance if the rally extends a little higher today.

We've only had a tiny little pullback so far and maybe that's all we're going to get (which would be typical for the kind of non-pullbacks we have often seen in the rallies). If so then I think that will add to the probability that we're going to see SPX punch up through that resistance line as it heads for new highs over the next week (the bullish wave count). We'll know better if and when SPX gets up there.

Right now it's threatening to leave a bearish divergence at the test of Friday's high (which could lead to the larger pullback I have been expecting but not seeing). Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 2:25:06 PM

Here is the bullish daily chart of Crude. Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 2:23:43 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures climbed back above $70 a barrel Monday afternoon with terrorist-related uncertainty in the U.K. and the promise of a strong U.S. driving season overcoming the earlier weakness that analysts had blamed on profit-taking following crude's 9% rise in June to a nine-month high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 1:54:39 PM

US 3-MONTH BILLS: 4.790%; 5.62% At High

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $15.00 billion in three-month bills at Monday's auction at a high rate of 4.790%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $41.95 billion and accepted $15.00 billion, including $1.80 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 98.789194 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 4.930%.

The Treasury also sold $113.00 million of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.80, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 5.62%.

The median rate was 4.770%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.760%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $14.32 billion in bills for its own account in Monday's three- and six-month bill auctions. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $19.14 billion of maturing bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

Accepted indirect bids for the three-month bill were 31.4% of the total competitive amount, up from 24.1% in last week's three-month bill auction.

The high rate was up from 4.685% at the previous three-month bill auction.

The high rate was the highest since the rate of 4.835% at the three-month bill auction on April 23.

The issue is dated July 5 and matures on Oct. 4.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 1:48:23 PM

NQ seems to be the only market to not trade to new daily highs but remains the only market above its PDRs.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 1:50:09 PM

US 6-Month Bills Auction: 4.810%; 41.99% At High

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $14.00 billion in six-month bills at Monday's auction at a high rate of 4.810%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $37.15 billion and accepted $14.00 billion, including $1.89 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 97.568278 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 5.012%.

The Treasury also sold $200.00 million of six-month bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.65, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 41.99%.

The median rate was 4.795%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.770%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $14.32 billion in bills for its own account in Monday's three- and six-month bill auctions. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $19.14 billion of maturing bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

Accepted indirect bids for the six-month bill were 20.3% of the total competitive amount, down from 43.2% in last week's six-month bill auction.

The high rate was unchanged from last week's sale.

The issue is dated July 5 and matures on Jan. 3, 2008.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 1:47:33 PM

Buyers have come back from lunch now and ES and YM are testing their respective PDHs.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 1:46:46 PM

iShares Lehman 20-year (TLT) $85.01 -0.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 1:46:07 PM

Looks like I was off by a day ... 10-year Yield ($TNX.X) did trade 5.0 handle.

Selling long some longer-dated Treasuries today in personal and managed accounts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 1:43:33 PM

CME's Regional Housing Futures

Aug'07 at this Link ... Little changed. Miami eases, SanFranciso edged up.

Nov'07 at this Link ... Little change. Miami eases. New York Metro at new high.

Feb'08 and May'08 at this Link

Aug'07 benchmarkings still below May'08.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 1:16:13 PM

Sector Status Changes ...

Friday's action saw PROTection/Safety Equipment reversed down from "bull confirmed" to "bear alert"

WASTe Management reversed back up from "bear alert" to "bull confirmed."

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 1:14:06 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 1:02:51 PM

Replacing GSO.X with SWH

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 1:01:55 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 12:53:48 PM

09:45:05 Correction .... Those are July MONTHLY Pivot Levels. Just forgot to change "June" to read July.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 12:38:04 PM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $42.85 +0.35% ...

MONTHLY Pivot Levels ... $28.37, $35.53, Piv= $39.77, $46.93, $51.17.

WEEKLY are ... $39.59, $41.14, Piv= 42.31, $43.86, $45.03.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 12:30:44 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $73.74 -0.16% ...

MONTHLY Pivot Levels ... $68.49, $71.18, Piv= $74.53, $77.22, $80.57.

WEEKLY are ... $69.39, $71.62, Piv= $74.14, $76.37, $78.89.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 12:25:28 PM

If the bears can pull off a coup today and bring the markets back to their daily lows or further then we are definitely seeing a change in sentiment.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 12:24:36 PM

Jerry! ... I'd take partial off the table in the RFY-GP at the bid of $33.60.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 12:21:31 PM

These are suggesting we will see higher highs later today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 12:21:05 PM

;)

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 12:20:49 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $213.27 +6.82% ... After trade at Friday's GREEN #6. Weekly R1 here at $214.01.

Looks like things "beginning badly" for bears.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 12:17:53 PM

Olin Corp. (OLN) $21.15 +0.71% ...

MONTHLY Pivot Levels ... $18.56, $19.78, Piv= $20.49, $21.71, $22.42.

WEEKLY are ... $19.01, $20.01, Piv= $20.60, $21.60, $22.19.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 12:12:38 PM

eBay (EBAY) $32.57 +1.21% ...

MONTHLY Pivot Levels ... $29.46, $30.82, Piv= $31.77, $33.13, $34.08.

WEEKLY are ... $31.00, $31.59, Piv= $31.97, $32.56, $32.94.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 12:07:25 PM

Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) $13.05 -2.02% ...

MONTHLY Pivot Levels ... $12.52, $12.92, Piv= $13.35, $13.75, $14.18.

WEEKLY are $12.75, $13.04, Piv= $13.23, $13.52, $13.71.

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 12:02:25 PM

Into the lunch hour so things might slow down a little (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 11:59:55 AM

Select Financial SPDR (AMEX:XLF) $36.43 +0.69% ...

MONTHLY Pivot Levels ... $34.41, $35.29, Piv= $36.69, $37.57, $38.97.

WEEKLY are $35.33, $35.75, Piv= $36.69, $36.65, $37.13.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 11:52:47 AM

Manpower Inc. (MAN) $93.21 +1.05% ....

MONTHLY Pivot Levels ... $87.53, $89.88, Piv= $92.30, $94.65, $97.07.

WEEKLY are $89.31, $90.78, Piv= $92.74, $94.21, $96.17.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 11:45:51 AM

Dateline WSJ - PARIS -- After a long and intense crackdown on cross-border money laundering, authorities say terrorist supporters, narcotics syndicates and sanctions busters have adopted a new method of sneaking funds past the watchful eye of the law: the global commodity trade.

The practice, known as "trade-based money laundering," was pioneered by Latin American drug smugglers in the 1990s. Now, it is spreading to Europe and the Middle East.

Here's how the practice works: Instead of wiring money directly from one country to another, a would-be money launderer buys foodstuffs like sugar or vegetable oil or other goods. Those goods are far easier to deliver to restricted destinations like Iran and the Palestinian territories because they often look like legitimate aid. When they arrive, local merchants transfer the goods on, or simply sell them for cash. A portion of the proceeds end up with local terrorist groups or criminals.

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 11:42:05 AM

It's do or die time for gold bulls, and also a good place to short it at its downtrend line from May, with a nice tight stop just above its last high near 665. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 11:41:20 AM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert ... for shares of Ford Motor (F) $9.54 +1.27% .... to $8.89 (from $8.65).

MONTHLY Pivot Levels are ... $7.41, $8.41, Piv= $9.06, $10.06, $10.71.

WEEKLY Pivot Levels are ... $8.49, $8.95, Piv= $9.33, $9.79, $10.17.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 11:16:35 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: It would take a closing measure of 48.00% for the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back higher and a 58.00% measure for the 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back lower.

NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL continues to rise, now above its 10-day ratio. It would take a 68.00% measure for the 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back up.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 11:15:39 AM

Stopped at 848.40

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 11:14:50 AM

Only 2 ticks at risk now.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 11:14:35 AM

Let's move that stop back to 848.4 just under XXX.50. alert

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 11:14:08 AM

New highs in equities being met with some short term bearish divergences so it's looking like it's ready for a pullback to start at any time.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 11:12:21 AM

Stop to b/e at least. alert

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 11:08:27 AM

Very bullish internals. Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 11:06:34 AM

Ok the long from 848.60 is taking a long time but the stop at 847.30 stays.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 11:02:39 AM

Natural Gas took a hugh beating last week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 11:01:42 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 11:00:58 AM

Gold's bull flag confirms. Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:59:08 AM

US $ is really falling today. Almost to yearly lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:58:18 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $65.14 +1.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:57:36 AM

Dollar-Selling Resumes After ISM; Euro At 7-Week High

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:56:14 AM

Permian Basin Trust (PBT) $13.13 -1.42% ... trades ex-dividend (June $0.096552/share).

Natural Gas prices continue to decline.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:50:27 AM

Stop well placed at 847.30

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:47:17 AM

Treasuries Find Buyers as Manufacturing Prices Ease In June .... 10-year Yield ($TNX.X) down 2.7 bp at 5.006% and WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:45:36 AM

AT&T To Buy Dobsons For $2.8 Billion

Shares of Dobson Communications soar after company agrees to be bought by AT&T.

DCEL $12.42 +11.79% ...

T $41.39 -0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:41:13 AM

CITI TO BUY AUTOMATED TRADING DESK

DJ- Citigroup will pay $680 million in mainly stock for the provider of electronic market making and proprietary trading. Automated Trading has about 120 broker/dealer customers and trades, on average, more than 200 million shares a day.

C $51.50 +0.40% ...

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:39:25 AM

long from 848.60 reached a high of 849.00 only 4 ticks into profit so stop stays at 847.30

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:38:55 AM

DUBAI LENDERS AGREE ON BANKING MERGER

DJ- U.A.E.'s Emirates Bank International and National Bank of Dubai move closer to a merger after their boards approve alliance plan. The deal, announced in March, will create the Gulf's largest lender with assets over $48.4 billion.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:38:25 AM

Market owes us for those nasty reversals it did not give us on Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:38:19 AM

LAWMAKERS CALL FOR PRUDHOE PROBE

DJ- Congressional committee is looking into allegations by some operators the Alaskan oil field that BP has allowed nearly double the amount of compressed natural gas to build up in a processing facility than it was designed to hold.

BPT $72.58 +0.49% ...

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:37:37 AM

ER to new daily highs as well.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:37:19 AM

NQ to new daily highs and I think we will have no problem getting our target here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:36:50 AM

ETS TO BUY THOMSON'S PROMETRIC UNIT

DJ- Thomson agrees to sell its Thomson Prometric unit to ETS, an educational testing company, for $435 million, as it continues to shed its education business.

TMS $19.09 +2.96% ...

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:36:21 AM

Long from 848.60 with a stop at 847.30 - alert.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:35:41 AM

Target is of course 848.60 + 1.30 = 849.90

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:35:26 AM

DANONE UP AMID POSSIBLE DIVESTITURE

DJ- Shares in the French soft drinks and dairy products concern gain 2% amid press reports the group is about to sell part or all of its biscuits and cookies division, possibly to Kraft.

DA $16.56 +1.84% ...

KFT $35.51 +0.73% ...

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:35:19 AM

Stop to 847.30

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:35:04 AM

Long from 848.60 stop is 846.40 I will be raising the stop soon.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:34:12 AM

ER's high 848.50 so not long yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:34:11 AM

INVESTORS AWAIT TALLY ON BEAR LOSSES

DJ- Investors in two Bear Stearns hedge funds will have to wait until as late as July 16 to learn how much money they have lost because the firm has had difficulty calculating the funds' fair value.

BSC $141.57 +1.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:33:23 AM

IPHONE GETS MIXED REACTION FROM ANALYSTS

DJ- Goldman Sachs analyst David C. Bailey says the launch 'blew through expectations,' as he raises his sales and profit expectations, while JPMorgan's Bill Shope says demand was disappointing as he cuts his iPhone sales estimate.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:32:52 AM

DOMINION TO SELL E&P UNIT FOR $2.05B

DJ- Utility agrees to sell its natural gas and oil exploration-and-production operations in Mid-Continent Basin to Linn Energy. Dominion has sold, or agreed to sell, all exploration and production operations under its divestiture plan.

D $86.97 +0.76% ...

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:32:42 AM

But I use a wide stop to begin with and am aggressive in raising the stop to lessen risk.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:32:06 AM

ER long at 848.60 with a stop at 846.40 Once again a wide stop alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:29:49 AM

REDDY ICE GOING PRIVATE FOR $1.1B

DJ- Largest manufacturer and distributor of packaged ice agrees to be acquired by GSO Capital for $31.25 a share, a 9.6% premium to Friday's closing price. Reddy Ice to accept other offers for 45 days.

FRZ $30.49 +6.90% ...

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:29:34 AM

NQ is the only market that has broken its PDHs so far. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:28:43 AM

TRUMP SAYS NO BUYOUT IMMINENT

DJ- Trump Entertainment Resorts says its board has concluded that, after getting advice from Merrill Lynch, none of the indications of interest it's received to date would likely lead to a deal in the company's best interests.

TRMP $10.46 -16.77% ...

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:27:35 AM

OK I am officially NOT going to make any more predictions about where this market is going until either support or resistance breaks. At this point I still think support will break because of the MACD but that is as far as I will go with predictions. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:26:39 AM

AT&T WORKING TO RESOLVE IPHONE PROBLEMS

DJ- Carrier says it is working to resolve problems preventing some iPhone buyers from activating the device, illustrating the complexities Apple faces in working with a partner and in offering a consumer product that plugs into a cellular network.

T $41.39 -0.28% ...

AAPL $121.10 -0.77% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:24:59 AM

Global Economic Calendar at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:23:13 AM

CARLYLE TO BUY MANOR CARE FOR $6.3B

DJ- Carlyle Group will buy Manor Care for $67 a share, 20% above the stock's price before the health-care firm announced plans to evaluate strategic alternatives.

HCR $64.26 -1.59% ...

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 10:20:09 AM

I don't know that we'll get it but a nice pullback would be to th 62% retracement of the jump up off Friday's low, which is near SPX 1502. That would close this morning's gap and take it down for a potential retest of the broken downtrend line from Friday's high. It would be a good setup for the long side. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:17:41 AM

VIRGIN MEDIA GETS $10B APPROACH

DJ- Shares jump 15% as the U.K. cable operator has received a preliminary offer from private-equity firm Carlyle Group, valuing the company's equity at up to $10 billion, plus $12 billion in debt, says a person familiar with the matter.

VMED $27.78 +14% ...

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 10:16:55 AM

In the meantime SPX has bounced up to its broken uptrend line from June 27th so it too could start a pullback to correct the leg up from Friday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:16:30 AM

BCE AGREES TO $32.6B PRIVATE BUYOUT

DJ- Acquisition of Canada's largest telecommunications company by Ontario Teachers Pension Plan and 2 private-equity firms is the largest private-equity deal yet and is a sign that despite some market jitters, the buyout route remains an active option for boards and managers.

BCE $39.20 +3.73% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:14:40 AM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) ... down 1.9 bp at 5.014%. Moves into its 6/06-6/07 "Bill Gross Gap"

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 10:11:25 AM

NDX's trend line along the highs since June 1st, shown on the NDX chart posted last night (below, 11:33 PM), is only about 2 points above this morning's high so we could be very close to finishing this little pop higher. A pullback from that 1953 resistance level should be expected.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:10:51 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. manufacturing firms were growing at a brisk pace in June, further evidence that U.S. economy has brushed off a temporary setback caused by excessive inventories of unsold goods, according to a closely followed survey of top executives released Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management index rose to 56% from 55.0% in May, above the 55.1% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. It's the highest reading since April 2006

Readings over 50% in the ISM diffusion index indicate that more firms are growing than contracting. The ISM had dipped below 50% twice during the fall and winter before surging ahead as spring dawned.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:09:28 AM

June ISM Prices 68.0 Vs May's 71.0 ... consensus was 69.0.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:07:45 AM

Needless to say the bulls have the ball this morning. Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 10:04:33 AM

Nice bullish reaction to the news.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:02:28 AM

US Econ: ISM June Mfg. Index 56.0 Vs May's 55.0 ... consensus 55.0.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 10:00:11 AM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $209.59 +4.80% ... "hot" early.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 9:59:29 AM

Ryland Group (RYL) $36.80 -1.52% ... cut to "hold" from "buy" at Citigroup.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 9:58:41 AM

Pulte Homes (PHM) $22.18 -1.20% ... cut to "hold" from "buy" at Citigroup.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 9:57:46 AM

Toll Bros. (TOL) $24.66 -1.28% ... cut to "hold" from "buy" at Citigroup.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 9:55:42 AM

VIX making new daily lows here as AD volume makes new daily highs. This is very bullish folks.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 9:53:37 AM

Market is waiting for the 10:00 ISM data but the internals are telling me it expects a good number and that they will blast higher. Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 9:51:35 AM

AD line is a very bullish +1463

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 9:47:45 AM

Dateline WSJ - Economic growth in the U.S. is likely to recover as the year goes on, but that might not be an entirely good thing, according to the latest Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters.

Having run a veritable gantlet of threats to its health, the nation's economy is in a better place than it was just a few months ago. Forecasters, however, also see a mounting risk: Thanks to longer-term shifts in the U.S. and global economic landscapes, even a little growth could lead to a resurgence of inflation, which would be painful for American consumers and could cause the Federal Reserve to ride the brakes by keeping short-term interest rates higher

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 9:46:50 AM

10:00a.m. June ISM Manufacturing Business Index. Expected: 55.0. Previous: 55.0.

Jeff Bailey : 7/2/2007 9:45:05 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 9:42:34 AM

US$ breaks its support in a very big way. This is only good for us goldbugs. Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 9:35:11 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose Monday, boosted by safe-haven demand and weakness in the dollar against other major currencies.

Gold's benchmark August contract gained $5.40 to stand at $656.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures gained 50 cents an ounce on Friday.

"The terror attacks in the U.K. over the weekend could bring some safe-haven positioning into the gold market over the next few days, although with the Independence Day holiday in the U.S. Wednesday, conditions are likely to be on the thin side," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in a research report.

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 9:29:55 AM

Just keep in mind that trading this week could be difficult if the pile gets moved around easily because of light volume. It'll be a good week to watch and not worry so much about trading. Look for very crisp setups with clear stop levels otherwise let it pass. This will be particularly true today and tomorrow before the holiday. The period tends to have a bullish bias but we've been getting some strong selling spikes so that continues to warrant caution.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 9:28:30 AM

The daily chart of Gold is breaking its bull flag but is finding resistance at the magenta 20EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 9:26:28 AM

Gold and the US$ are back in sync, $ down and Gold up

Take note of the DAX, it is not making higher highs and lows like the American markets but lower highs and lows. Link

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 9:16:59 AM

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- June's trading in the stock market provided a little bit of something for those who think the glass is half full, as well as those who see it as half empty.

The good news is that the stock market didn't collapse in the wake of the sharpest correction since the Beijing Surprise in late February. Indeed, given the daunting number of hurdles that the stock market had to jump over in June -- everything from much higher bond yields to the potential collapse of several hedge funds -- it is impressive that the market showed as much resilience as it did.

The bad news, though, is that the stock market did decline for the month of June. Some technical analysts are seeing signs that the market is more tired than energized.

Jane Fox : 7/2/2007 9:14:30 AM

Late Friday we saw a nasty sell off and once again, like so many times last week, the bulls were able to stop the onslaught and the markets did not close at daily lows. Then the overnight session opened right were they left off and the markets proceeded to mostly move sideways however, the higher highs and lows does tell us the bulls had the upper hand. Link

Keene Little : 7/2/2007 9:06:33 AM

Equities are in the green to start the day and could pop a little higher but I suspect there will be a pullback to correct the spike up off Friday afternoon's low. If we get it then it will be an opportunity to try to buy the dip for another rally leg. I'll be watching the RUT this time to see if it participates in another rally (as opposed to Friday's late-day bounce).

Market Monitor Archives