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OI Technical Staff : 7/3/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 7/3/2007 3:30:00 PM

My target for the rally since April has been reached, COMP 2645. My bias is now to the downside, unless we get a convincing close on volume above 2646. I am out of all speculative equity long positions other than day trades.

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 1:41:52 PM

Everyone have a wonderful 4th of July. C U all Thursday.

Keene Little : 7/3/2007 1:13:09 PM

And with that I'm outahere. I hope everyone has a great, and safe, holday with family and friends. We'll be back at this on Thursday and in the meantime get away from the market and relax a little. I'll have charts updated (not a lot of changes) posted Wednesday night.

Keene Little : 7/3/2007 12:57:10 PM

Well, my short is still alive but not exactly the kind of cushion I was hoping for. We could see a relief rally on Thursday (that would be another pop higher as we saw yesterday and today) or a stronger pullback. It's a bit of a roll the dice so be careful with any position you're thinking of taking home with you.

Keene Little : 7/3/2007 12:32:07 PM

It sure looks like they want to get the market to go out at the high.

Keene Little : 7/3/2007 12:05:54 PM

Into the last hour--let's see if there's a little profit taking for the holiday (for those of us who shorted against this morning's high). If not then I'll (not so) gladly take the stop and go home flat.

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 11:33:30 AM

Equities and Options markets will close at 1:00pm EST, option Index products will close at 1:15pm EST

NASDAQ will close at 1:00pm EST and will conduct a modified extended-hours session until 5:00pm, EST. Most NASDAQ systems will close three hours early. For addtional information on early closings at the NASDAQ refer to the following, Link

GLOBEX: CME Equity Indexes and CME ETFs will close at 1:15pm EST

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 11:29:57 AM

Have a good one Jeff.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 11:28:43 AM

Well, I'm going to head for the hills and try and beat the holiday traffic.

Have a safe 4th of July. See you Thursday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 11:27:52 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 11:21:07 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 11:15:11 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Global mergers-and-acquisitions volume, fueled by private-equity buyers mostly in the U.S. market, surged to $2.88 trillion in the first half of 2007, data compiled by Dealogic show.

This represents a 55% increase from the same period a year ago, the supplier of software and information systems used by the investment-banking industry said. A 133% increase in financial sponsor-led buyouts fueled the increase, and M&A in the U.S. surged past $1 trillion -- a 75% increase above the same period last year.

The average deal size rose 58% to $298 million.

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 11:13:00 AM

Only major market to make a new yearly high.

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 11:12:22 AM

Naz Compsite's previous yearly high was made on June 20th at 2634.60. Today's high so far has been 2642.90, new yearly high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 11:12:48 AM

Chrysler Group June US Sales Down 1% to 183,347 Vehicles

Company Press Release Link

Keene Little : 7/3/2007 11:10:54 AM

If you shorted the high then it's time to move your stop down to just above today's high--no sense risking more than that at this point. Let it run for a bit and leave your stop there since there's a decent chance for at least a test of the high. If there's enough of a cushion it's not a bad trade to take home with you over the holiday for a little insurance against something bad happening (but let's hope for a calm and uneventful day).

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 11:02:32 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 10:57:13 AM

Internals are still bullish suggesting higher highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:51:43 AM

Chile Hikes 2007 Fiscal Surplus To 7.1% Of GDP

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:50:32 AM

20 Largest US Cos. By Market Cap at this Link

Keene Little : 7/3/2007 10:46:36 AM

The DOW has already tagged its potential resistance area by hitting 13578 and the broken uptrend line from March. I'd say it's a good place to try a short with a stop near 13600 (cash) for a tight stop. It might only be good for a pullback (or not even that) or the bounce could be finishing here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:45:13 AM

CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) $118.64 +2.41% ... challenges recent all-time high of $118.72.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:44:02 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $153.99 +2.04% ... works its way above our 61.8% bullish vertical count retracement ($151.85) and challenges $155 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:41:55 AM


DJ- National chain store sales fall 1.1% in the first four weeks of June versus May, according to Redbook Research. Separately the International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales Index edges up 0.1% in week to June 30.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:40:16 AM


DJ- French food maker is in exclusive talks with Kraft Foods to sell its biscuit and cereal division after its U.S. peer makes a $7.2 billion offer. Danone's CEO says a deal would allow the company to concentrate on its dairy-products and water divisions. Operations in question generated $2.7 billion in sales last year. Danone gains 1% and Kraft falls 1%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:39:11 AM


DJ- Country's central bank sends its strongest signal so far that it will continue with monetary tightening and guide the growth of credit to prevent China's economy from overheating.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:38:25 AM


DJ- Apple is expected to generate a margin of more than 55% on each 8-gigabyte iPhone it sells, says market researcher iSuppli. Device costs $599 and iSuppli says it has a total hardware bill-of-materials and manufacturing cost of $265.83.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:34:13 AM

Financial Select SPDRs (XLF) $36.82 +0.90% ... sticks its head above 19.1% retracement ($36.78) of 6/14/06 low close to recent 06/01/07 high close. 21-day SMA above at $36.95.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:32:00 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) alert! 395.93 +0.89% ... Back at 38.2% retracement (6/23/06 relative low close to recent 02/20/07 high close). 21-day SMA here too.

Keene Little : 7/3/2007 10:30:19 AM

SPX is nearing its 1527 potential resistance. Watch for price to stall (or not) for a short play.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:29:57 AM

French PM: To Balance Budget, Cut Debt Below 60%/GDP By 2012

DJ- French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said Tuesday that France will bring its budget deficit back into balance within five years, and forecast it would cut public debt to below 60% of gross domestic product, also by 2012 at the latest.

The comments by Fillon, who was outlining the main details of his government's program to the country's National Assembly, echo those of President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has been backtracking from a previous commitment to balance the deficit by 2010.

Sarkozy is expected to present his proposal to delay a commitment to balance the country's budget deficit to an Ecofin meeting July 9 in Brussels. The proposal is likely to meet resistance within Europe.

Three months ago, France, together with the other 12 euro-zone countries, pledged to balance its budget by 2010. France's budget deficit this year is forecast at 2.4% of gross domestic product, close to the maximum 3% of GDP threshold stipulated by the Maastricht rules underpinning the euro.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:27:13 AM

Blackstone (BX) $29.59 +1.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:26:46 AM


DJ- Hedge-fund giant becomes the latest sizable alternative investment manager to move to tap public markets. Och-Ziff had approximately $26.8 billion of assets under management for over 700 fund investors as of April 30.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:25:59 AM


DJ- Trading volume at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Chicago Board of Trade flourishes in June as both exchanges post record volumes amid a busy month for interest-rate futures and other core products.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:25:16 AM


DJ- Firm advised on 229 takeover deals worth a combined $838 billion, according to Dealogic, giving the investment bank the top spot for M&A advising in the record first half of the year. Following Goldman was Citi, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Lehman.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:19:57 AM

Table Of Data On Factory Orders at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 10:19:13 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- More Americans fell behind on their debt payments in the first quarter than at any time since the 2001 recession, despite fewer delinquencies on credit-card debts, the American Bankers Association reported Tuesday.

Delinquencies of all types of consumer loans rose to 2.42% in the first quarter from 2.23% in the fourth quarter, led by higher rates of late payments for real-estate loans. It's the highest delinquency rate for the bankers' composite delinquency index since the second quarter of 2001.

Delinquencies of credit-card debts fell to 4.41% of all accounts from 4.56% in the fourth quarter, however. Accounts are considered delinquent if payments are 30 days overdue.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:18:42 AM

Notable decline in Transportation Equipment for May Factory Orders.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:16:49 AM

Notable gain in computers for May Factory Orders.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:13:33 AM

Apple Inc. (AAPL) $124.92 +3.02% ... finds a bid.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:12:10 AM

Today's Global Economic Calendar Link

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 10:08:20 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. housing market weakened further in May, with contract signings on sales of previously owned homes falling 3.5%, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

Pending sales are down 13.3% compared with a year earlier, and are down 21% from the peak year in 2005.

In May, pending sales fell 8.9% in the Midwest, and 7.6% in the South. Pending sales rose 5.6% in the West and 3.8% in the Northeast.

A sale is considered "pending" when the contract signed; the NAR marks it as "sold" when the sale closes, usually within two months.

The pending homes-sales index is considered a leading indicator of existing-home sales, which were down 10.3% in May compared with a year earlier. Inventories of unsold homes rose to a 15-year high in May.

The real estate group will report on existing-home sales for June on July 25.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:05:31 AM

Pending Home Sales m/m down 3.5% Vs -3.2% previous. Consensus was for gain of 0.6%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:04:29 AM

US Factory Orders m/m -0.5% Vs +0.3% previous. Consesus was for a decline of 0.9%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 10:03:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 10:02:42 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - After three straight gains, orders for U.S. made factory goods fell 0.5% in May, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday.

Economists had been looking for a drop of about 1.2% in factory orders, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. The forecast was based on last week's report that durable goods fell sharply in May.

Orders for durable goods, such as airplanes, computers and washing machines, did not fall as sharply as first estimated. Durable goods orders fell a revised 2.4% in May, up from the initial estimate of a 2.8% decli

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 9:59:58 AM

US Domestic June Sales forecasted at 12.3M units.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 9:58:29 AM

Haven't been able to find out the size of the Ford Motor (F) bond conversion is. Just how dilutive.

Automakers report June sales during today's session.

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 9:53:54 AM

AD line is how a bullish +1038

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 9:49:29 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. workers' confidence weakened in June to the lowest level in nine months, according to a monthly survey by a top recruiting company released Tuesday.

The Hudson employment index fell to 101.2 from a May reading of 106.9, said Hudson Highland Group Inc. , citing reduced expectations for hiring combined with heightened financial worries. The June 2006 index was at 102.4.

'It appears worker sentiment caved under the pressure of the weak housing market, high energy prices, and inconsistent job growth.' - Robert Morgan, Hudson Talent Solutions "It appears worker sentiment caved under the pressure of the weak housing market, high energy prices, and inconsistent job growth," said Robert Morgan, president of Hudson Talent Solutions, in a statement.

The percentage of workers surveyed who said their company is hiring fell to 30% from 32%, while 19% of workers said they were worried about their own job security.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 9:49:12 AM

AIG Intl. Commodity Update DJ- Nearby NYMEX crude futures settled above the $71 level on Monday, the highest close since late August 2006. August crude, which ended at $71.09 (up $0.41), has gained more than $3.30 over the past five sessions.

Decent-sized gains on Monday in August Brent crude, which settled more than a Dollar higher at $72.62, substantially widened the WTI-Brent spread. After dipping to a multi-month low of $0.73 last Friday, nearby WTI-Brent spreads have roughly doubled in the aftermath of the unsuccessful terror attacks in the UK.

Flooding in Kansas caused an outage at a 108K bpd facility owned by Coffeyville Resources. Unofficial estimates suggested that the plant, which was almost completely submerged, could be out of service for several months.

Wheat futures closed down sharply in a continuation of Friday's steep, technically-inspired declines. Friday's USDA acreage report showed that spring wheat plantings are now below most industry analysts' expectations, raising the likelihood of significant declines in global ending stocks.

Renewed Dollar weakness spurred healthy gains in copper, zinc, and aluminum.

Keene Little : 7/3/2007 9:48:22 AM

A little snapback buying just to keep the sellers at bay.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 9:46:46 AM

"On fire" hot that is.

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 9:45:56 AM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $46.40 +6.71% ... stock "hot" early.

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 9:42:10 AM

VIX and AD volume are bullish but the TRIN is making new daily highs although at 0.90 I am not putting too much emphasis on it right now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 9:37:05 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for shares of Ford Motor (F) $9.40 -2.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 9:36:26 AM

Ford (F) $9.46 -1.86% ... Company saying it was offering a premium to holders of its 5-year-old debt securities to convert them to common stock.

This will pressure the stock today.

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 9:34:32 AM

Keene, yup I totally agree and I did reference that downward trendline in my 9:23 post. Thanks.

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 9:33:29 AM

AD line is a bullish to neutral +595

Jeff Bailey : 7/3/2007 9:33:07 AM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert ... on shares of Ford Motor (F) $9.45 -1.97% ... to break even ($9.40).

Keene Little : 7/3/2007 9:25:33 AM

Jane, before jumping aboard the gold bull train I'd watch for a break of the downtrend line first, and that should be confirmed with a higher high above 665.70. Until then we have a downtrend firmly established for gold. Or is that just me trying to convince myself that my gold short is still OK? Link

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 9:23:11 AM

And Gold's daily charts are also telling us it needs to clear some resistance before we jump back into this market. That resistance is the June 19th swing high and the blue downward trendline. Link

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 9:20:55 AM

But just because the weekly charts of the markets that have a relationship with Gold are giving us a go ahead to get long Gold it does not mean we jump in willy nilly. The jtHMA charts are showing me the weekly charts are still red so patience grasshopper (sorry goldbugs) and we need it to turn green first. Link

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 9:17:05 AM

Here are weekly charts of markets that have a relationship with Gold, US$, Crude and the Swiss Franc. Gold is bullish if Oil is above its weekly 12EMA. Gold is bullish if the US$ is below its weekly 7EMA and Gold is bullish if the Swiss Franc is above its weekly 5EMA. We have 3 out of 3 so time to get back on the Goldbug train. Link

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 9:10:56 AM

Gold bumped along its PDH overnight and US$ bumped along its PDL overnight so these two are in sync. Oil sort of bumped along its PDH so it in sync as well.

The DAX is interesting. I mentioned yesterday that it was not as bullish as its American counterparts but it certainly made up for it overnight since its entire overnight session was above its PDR. Makes me wonder if my charts are right. Link

Jane Fox : 7/3/2007 9:11:06 AM

All markets closed strong yesterday so it is not surprising they all broke their PDHs overnight. And, although they all have retreated off their respective overnight highs, no market has retraced back to it PDR. Looks like the bulls are back in town. Link

Keene Little : 7/3/2007 8:40:18 AM

Equity futures got a big pop a just after 2:00 AM and have been trying to hold on to those gains since. What that will mean after the cash market opens is anyone's guess. If you thought yesterday was slow, stand by for a real snoozer. The market closes at 1:00 PM today and you can bet most are not even bothering to watch. There's a bullish bias but the risk today is that some may want to take money off the table rather than risk it over the holiday. Light volume could exaggerate any of those moves.

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