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Jeff Bailey : 7/6/2007 1:17:03 AM

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) Link ... still in column of O to -140. Closing measure -122.15. Needs -80.00 to reverse back higher.

Jeff Bailey : 7/6/2007 1:15:43 AM

NYSE Summation ($NYSI) Link ... still in column of O to 100.00. Closing measure 158.98.

Needs 160.00 to get 3-box reversal higher.

Jeff Bailey : 7/6/2007 12:40:08 AM

RUT NH/NL finished 85:38.

Jeff Bailey : 7/6/2007 12:40:03 AM

SPX NH/NL finished 44:2 on Thursday.

85:1 was best on 5/31/07.

Worst was 11:9 on 6/25/07 and 4:7 on 6/26/07.

Jeff Bailey : 7/6/2007 12:33:54 AM

BPOTC up 0.18%, so net gain of roughly 5 stocks (just more than 3,000). Still in column of O (since 3/05/07), but edging up at 52.95.

Jeff Bailey : 7/6/2007 12:32:13 AM

BPNYSE up 0.55%, so net gain of roughly 17 stocks (just more than 3,000). Still in column of O, but edging up at 68.93%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/6/2007 12:30:27 AM

BPSPX up 1.45%, or ~+7 stocks net gain reversing higher PnF buy signals. Still in O's but edging up to 73.59%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/6/2007 12:27:16 AM

Not seeing the reversing up +1 net gain for S&P 100 Bullish % (BPOEX). AAPL's given 4 additional buy signals since first at $91. GOOG's given 3 additional since first at $468.

I think BPOEX unchanged at 85%.

Keene Little : 7/6/2007 12:02:52 AM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Sampling of charts from tonight's Market Wrap:
SPX 60-min: Link Still struggling with its broken uptrend line from March and now needs to keep rallying otherwise it will break its uptrend.

NDX daily: Link Up against the trend line running along the highs since May and the leg up from June 27th looks complete. Looking for a pullback/decline to start.

GOOG daily: Link Worth watching for signs of topping in techs in general. Hitting resistance now.

RUT daily: Link Also hitting trend line resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 7/6/2007 12:17:31 AM

ERTS $50.90 +4.43% Link ... NDX/QQQQ component getting a reversing higher PnF buy signal today.

BPNDX 75%

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 11:51:08 PM

Gotcha Marc! I remember you saying buy the pullbacks a couple of weeks ago. I must have missed your trade profiles on AAPL and RIMM since 06/13 afternoon.

You're right. A lot of money made on those two from the long/call side.

OI Technical Staff : 7/5/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/5/2007 9:31:00 PM

It's either July 5th or July 10/July 15th, but we are close now and it is worth scaling in to short positions.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/5/2007 9:00:45 PM

Actually Jeff, I took long calls on AAPL several times including June. AAPL/RIMM are not the only reasons why I feel a top is in. I won't explain myself here, but suffice it to say that I am aggressively shorting rallies for the first time since I last called a top in February and traded it with a YM short into March. This time, I am hitting NQ hard. If wrong, it won't matter, I have made plenty of money on this bull and readers know I have been telling them to buy pullbacks for the past three months. I can no longer give that advice.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 7:42:28 PM

Crocs, Inc (CROX) $43.24 +4.19% Link ... When stocks EXCEED bullish vertical counts, and overhead supply is nonexistant, utilize what you've hopefully LEARNED here in the MM (from me). Use OPTIONS to mitigate risk and don't overleverage!

This is covered in REALITY 101.

CQJ-SV $1.35 x $1.45. (see 6/13/07 thru 6/27/07 MM).

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 7:20:47 PM

RIMM Options Montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 6:56:22 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $132.75 +4.38% Link ... QAA-GC $18.00 x $18.20.

Some never could have dreamed that on 06/13/07. Reality at tonight's close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 6:43:11 PM

And there are realists ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/5/2007 6:42:33 PM

There are always dreamers...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 6:41:28 PM

RIMM Link ... No dividend, so StockCharts' PnF chart is accurate.

Top of Dorsey's 10-week trading band is currently at $190.

Bullish vertical count grows to $330.

If still aggressive short from 6/29/07 MM commentary below $200 and adding to position, I'd strongly suggest a stop be derived.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 6:35:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/5/2007 6:28:28 PM

That is turning my bias from cautious long to aggressive short.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/5/2007 6:22:57 PM

RIMM is now trading almost 100% away from its 20 dma. AAPL 10%. If you want the definition of bubble, there it is. I would rather be in cash (or short) when I see garbage like that on ultra low volume (the lowest since June 4th for QQQQ).

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 6:18:37 PM

NDX/QQQQ Top 30 Weighted Stocks (as of 07/03/07) at this Link ... I had been sorting my list of 100 by their QCharts' "Market Capitalization", but that no-longer looks to be the case.

Top 30, or roughly 1/3 of the 100 now accounts for ~66.57% of the weighting. Just the top 10 is ~41.16%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 6:00:19 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 5:41:06 PM

Alert! ... As of 07/03/07 NDX/QQQQ top 10 holdings are ... AAPL 9.21%, MSFT 5.93%, QCOM 5.29%, GOOG 4.52%, CSCO 3.66%, INTC 3.00%, ORCL 2.58%, CMCSA 2.49%, RIMM 2.32% and GILD 2.16%.

Much different than I thought!

Roughly 41.16% of weighting in the top 10.

Powershares.com Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 5:17:56 PM

Oracle (ORCL) $20.49 +2.09% ... gets a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 5:06:13 PM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 4:54:45 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 4:36:38 PM

August Unleaded (rb07q) settled up $0.0199, or +0.88% at $2.2843.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 4:35:16 PM

August Crude Oil (cl07q) settled up $0.40, or +0.56% at $71.81.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 4:32:51 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 4:23:43 PM

Manpower (MAN) $93.88 -0.03% ... Tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels are ... $92.92, $93.40, Piv= $93.76, $94.24, $94.60.

DAILY R2 and MONTHLY R1 (tested on Tuesday) need to hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/5/2007 4:19:03 PM

As I said, you have to hang on with this low volume. Still short NQ.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 4:17:34 PM

Tomorrow's Global Econ. Calendar at this Link

GBP's Industrial Production will be a focal point after BOE's expected hike.

CAD's Employment Change may be a preview of US's employment data.

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 3:55:47 PM

The move up higher into the close is what gave us a completed 5-wave move up off the low around 12:30. That 5-wave move should have completed one larger degree 5th wave so we're due at least a larger pullback now to correct the move up from June 29th. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:55:36 PM

Olin Corp. (OLN) $21.68 +1.26% ... threatens a close above its WEEKLY R1. MONTHLY R1 just ahead.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 3:55:34 PM

The NAZ is foraging ahead to new yearly highs but it is doing it all alone. No other major index market is making new yearly highs.

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 3:52:25 PM

We're there. It's time to take a few QQQQ puts home tonight. Don't go crazy--just enough to see if it works since there will be plenty of time to add to them if it does start to work.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 3:48:00 PM

And the Wilshire 5000 buy signal. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 3:47:11 PM

NAZ buy signal. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 3:46:11 PM

SPX Buy signal. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/5/2007 3:45:49 PM

There is risk to NQ 2012/2020 if they really go nuts, June 2001 highs. But we are now 30 points away from the 5 dma on meager volume. Not good odds to hold a long.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:45:09 PM

QQQQ $48.66 +0.72% .... threatens a close above WEEKLY R2. Buyers stood ground at MONTHLY R1 ($48.29)

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 3:44:54 PM

Here is the DOW buy signal. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 3:44:14 PM

Here is the Russell 2000 buy signal. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 3:42:25 PM

All the major index markets gave buy signals back June 27th and so far that seems like a pretty good entry.

Gold has not given a buy yet - the weekly needs to turn green before that will happen. Although I have chosen to not use the monthly jtHMA for my swing trades, I see the monthly has also turned red now and that is not what you want to see if trying to get long.

Crude is all green but we need a pullback (daily/120/60 turn red, then 120/60 turn back green) before we can get on board.

TBonds gave us a sell signal on July 3rd, which would have been a very good signal. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:36:02 PM

Shorts better get those two under control before adding another is my thoughts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:35:21 PM

Chicago Merc (CME) $553.51 +2.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:34:58 PM

Google (GOOG) $542.50 +1.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:33:47 PM

BPNDX at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:30:07 PM

Dorsey/Wright's NASDAQ-100 Bullish % achieved 76% on 02/26/07. Dorsey/Wright does not adjust their PnF charts for dividends that have been paid.

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 3:28:55 PM

NDX 1980-1985 looks like it could be the place to enter a short play--right up against the top of a parallel up-channel from May: Link It would have the COMP pressing a little higher than the 2656 level I've been discussing but between the two charts I like the setup. We'd then have to watch to see if it'll be just a pullback before pressing higher or the start of something bigger to the downside. Definitely worth a try here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:24:31 PM

December Fed Funds futures (ff07z) alert 94.77 ... less than 10% chance/probablility of 25 bp cut between now and December expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:22:52 PM

Marvell Tech (MRVL) $18.12 -1.09% Link ... gave a reversing higher double top buy signal at $18.50, but still below trend. Probably a "key stock" for NDX/QQQQ shorts/bears to monitor.

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 3:22:33 PM

Ideally we'll see the techs push higher to finish a 5-wave move up from 12:30. That would then be the setup I'd short.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/5/2007 3:21:12 PM

BPNDX hit 76 twice before this year and we had very sharp sell-offs everytime. This is an easy trade, but you have to stay calm and not let them push you around. Risk is to 2001 on NQ, so stops should be at 2005 on the 1998 short. Good luck.

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 3:18:11 PM

The techs are pushing higher while the brokers (XBD) have fallen and can't get up. The bounce since noon looks like a bear flag and should lead to another drop into tomorrow morning where it would then set up another bounce. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:17:40 PM

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % Reversal Alert! ... Wednesday's action did have the narrower NASDAQ-100 Bullish % (BPNDX) reversing back up to "bear correction!"

It would take a 76% measure to achieve "bull confirmed."

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:13:28 PM

Sun Micro Systems (SUNW) $5.34 +2.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:13:02 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $28.25 +0.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:12:38 PM

Intel (INTC) $24.64 +0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:12:19 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $29.96 -0.19% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/5/2007 3:05:03 PM

NQ is a short here at 1998. You will just have to weather some noise, but this is a nice short squeeze on low volume and a gift for swing traders. Target 1973/1977.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 3:02:07 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 2:52:01 PM

VXO.X 14.88 +6.66% ... stay in, at the money.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 2:49:38 PM

No stop for now on the DAW-HE, targeting $140.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 2:49:02 PM

Swing trade long call alert ... for one (1) of the Dow Diamonds DIA Aug $135 Calls (DAW-HE) at the offer of $3.30.

DIA $135.62 -0.05% ...

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 2:43:56 PM

In addition to the weekly chart of the COMP, that shows a potential ascending wedge pattern that is about to complete (with the confirming bearish divergences), the top of which is near 2656 and shown here: Link , now look at the 60-min chart:

Look familiar? Nice fractal playing out and it makes a short play from around that 2656 area even juicier looking. I just know the bulls are going to give me the what-for for even trying but try I must. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 2:35:31 PM

NQ is making new daily highs and it looks like YM will be the next market to try the same thing. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 2:33:38 PM

The TRIN has been talking to us all day and telling us there was a good possibility the buyers could return today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 2:27:27 PM

Currency Cross Rates with daily interval chart of Euro/Yen Link

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 2:19:17 PM

Can't help but notice the DOW, SPX, OEX and NYA have the same W pattern on the daily chart. What do you know about this type pattern and does it suggest anything about future activity? I have heard it mentioned as a pattern seen before big reversal movements like 1987. Your comments are appreciated.

Typically a reversal pattern at a bottom will be a 'W' and at the top it will be an 'M'. So the W patterns seen at the highs are potentially nothing more than a consolidation pattern before proceeding higher. That's what I've been showing on the daily charts as an a-b-c 4th wave correction in the rally from March. It calls for another new high to finish the 5th wave up to complete the March rally.

The alternative interpretation of it, which needs lower highs in the W pattern, is that we've seen the top (June 1st for the DOW and SPX) and now we're seeing a succession of 1st waves down and 2nd wave bounces. This would be a setup for a strong decline in a succession of 3rd waves to the downside. Bottom line is we don't know which is playing out and therefore those W patterns aren't telling us much, yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 2:12:41 PM

Forex Currency at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 2:07:36 PM

European Markets: at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 1:43:17 PM

I want to be long the DIA before today's close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 1:42:45 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $135.34 -0.25% ... back for a look-see at WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 1:40:58 PM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.52 .... sits on WEEKLY S2. Did indeed trade MONTHLY S1 earlier this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 1:17:37 PM

VXN.X 17.50 +4.79% ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels are ... 14.18, 16.02, Piv= 18.00, 19.84, 21.82.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 1:16:37 PM

Google (GOOG) $540.40 +1.14% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 1:15:51 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $184.48 +1.92% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 1:13:35 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 1:05:52 PM

I posted the chart of GOOG last night because I said it could be a good indicator for us to watch. It got the pop higher today and got a little above the trend line across the highs from January 2006 and has pulled back. Link

Looking at the pattern of the move up from June 29th it looks like it needs another minor high following this morning's consolidation to finish a 5-wave move. That should then finish the 5-wave move up from March which should also be finishing the move up from March 2006. So it has the potential to be setting up a major high. And that suggests the techs in general could be doing the same.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 1:02:34 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 1:00:04 PM

HEre is how the VIX is trading in relation to ES. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:59:27 PM

BTMU BUSINESS BAROMETER FLAT

DJ- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UFJ weekly business barometer is unchanged for the week ended June 23 for the third week in a row. Barometer showing that economic growth has rebounded from weakness in late 2006 and 1Q.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:55:23 PM

MBIA DETAILS ITS SUBPRIME EXPOSURE

DJ- Bond insurer details its investments in collateralized debt obligations that helps assure some analysts that the subprime worries that have driven the stock down in recent months may be overblown.

MBI $61.73 -1.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:47:14 PM

APOLLO MAKES HIGHER BID FOR HUNTSMAN

DJ- Trumping a $5.6 billion deal for chemical maker Huntsman, private-equity firm Apollo Management shows how buyout shops are increasingly blurring the realm between corporate mergers and the more-aggressive LBO.

HUN $27.48 +12.62% ... Wow! Stock was trading $18.90 on 6/25. Gapped to $24 on 6/26.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:44:59 PM

FAST RETAILING OFFERS $900M FOR BARNEYS

DJ- Jones Apparel jumped 5% after company received unsolicited offer from Japan's Fast Retailing for its Barneys New York division for $900 million. Jones has agreed to sell Barneys to Istithmar, Dubai government's investment arm, for $825 million.

JNY $28.54 +0.49% ...

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 12:32:32 PM

Russell 2000's high on June 15th was 851.15 and today it has been 850.77. Yearly highs are 856.39 so that is your resistance zone.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:36:25 PM

Permian Basin Trust (PBT) $13.28 +2.15% ... has moved above WEEKLY Pivot ($13.23), but MONTHLY ($13.35) still a test.

Should be getting a $0.096552/share dividend on 07/16.

SEC Yield at $13.50 entry ~8.58%.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 12:30:41 PM

ER now breaks its PDL but NQ is still sitting at its PDH.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:30:12 PM

Energy Events Today ... Good AP Story at this Link

Nigeria, US floods, imports, etc.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:27:37 PM

That might make "some sense" per my trade blotter. (See 6/11/07 BSQ-II)

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:26:11 PM

Monster Worldwide (MNST) $41.47 +0.16% ... Financial services would most likely utilize their services.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:24:21 PM

US AIRWAYS CUTTING 2H CAPACITY

DJ- Epected 2% decline is based on lower use, the airline says. The carrier also anticipates slightly higher-than-projected mainline cargo and other revenue for the year.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:23:12 PM

I don't believe financial services industry utilizes Manpower.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:21:58 PM

Financial Select SPDRs (AMEX:XLF) $36.52 -0.78% ... XLF-TK $1.00 x $1.10.

VIX 15.63 +4.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:20:33 PM

US JUNE JOB CUTS FALL 22% FROM MAY

DJ- The number of job cuts announced by U.S. corporations last month falls to 55,726 according to a Challenger, Gray & Christmas survey, led by the financial industry. Year-over-year decline is 17%, with 1H job-cut announcements dropping 9.8%.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 12:18:12 PM

ES and YM are certainly bearish but NQ is not even trading within its PDR. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 12:14:12 PM

Internals turning bearish. Link

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 12:13:20 PM

The pattern of the pullback from Tuesday morning leaves me with the impression that this is all a consolidation before the market presses higher again. It may only be good for a small move higher or it could be another big rally. As long as SPX stays above 1518 in its pullback (which may continue sideways into the end of the day) then it's possible we're in the process of completing a 4th wave correction in the rally from June 27th. Link

That wave count would leave us just one more push higher and it may only be good enough for another retest of the June highs. But if SPX drops below 1518 from here then it opens up the possibility for much more bearish things (3rd of a 3rd wave down).

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:13:06 PM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) backing up 6.6 bp at 5.216%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:12:41 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) backs up additional 7.7 bp at 5.127%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:12:01 PM

TLT $83.93 -0.99% ... SEC Yield based on annual dividend (pays ~$0.3366 monthly) of $3.91 currently 4.658%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 12:06:01 PM

Today's Global Economic Calendar Link

BOE raised rates 25 bp to 5.75%.

ECB left rates unchanged at 4.00%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 11:56:49 AM

COKE MULLING BID FOR CADBURY SCHWEPPES' SNAPPLE

DJ- Beverage giant Coca-Cola has approached several private equity funds involved in bidding for Cadbury Schweppes' U.S. drinks business about buying Cadbury's Snapple brand. The sale could bring in more than $10 billion.

CSG $53.69 -0.20% ...

KO $52.63 -0.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 11:53:43 AM

AMR, UAL To Sell Stakes In ARINC To Carlyle Group

DJ- AMR Corp.'s (AMR) American Airlines, along with other major carriers, agreed to sell their stakes in ARINC Inc. to an affiliate of private-equity firm Carlyle Group.

According to ARINC's Web site, financial details weren't disclosed. Carlyle Group declined to comment further on the deal.

The Wall Street Journal said in April the airlines were exploring the sale of ARINC, a closely held aviation communications company. The deal, which is expected to close before Oct. 31, was expected to fetch as much as $1 billion.

The airlines, including U.S. carriers American Airlines, Continental Airlines Inc. (CAL) and Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL), together own more than 90% of common stock of ARINC.

Neither Continental Airlines nor Delta Air Lines was immediately available to comment on whether it participated in this deal.

ARINC, Annapolis, Md., has carved out a niche as one of the biggest providers of aviation communications, particularly the transfer of data to and from jetliners via satellite and radio. The company is also a major player in moving data and managing information systems for other modes of transportation, as well as for the Pentagon and U.S. government.

The company's equipment is so prevalent that other electronics are often required by the government to meet a set of technology standards developed and published by ARINC.

ARINC also developed high-speed communications systems that allow corporate-jet users to gain access to the Internet, email and other services while in flight.

ARINC generated 2006 revenue of $919 million and has about 3,300 employees.

According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, American Airlines expects to receive about $194 million for its ARINC shares, and will record a gain of $140 million from the sale.

In a separate filing, United Airlines Inc., a unit of UAL Corp. (UAUA), expects to receive about $125 million for its ARINC shares, and will record a gain of more than $40 million from the sale.

While a sale would generate relatively small proceeds for each owner, the airlines' financial state makes any new cash infusion a welcome addition. They enjoyed a similar windfall in 2004 when they sold off online travel service Orbitz Inc. for $1.25 billion.

Carlyle Group has $58.5 billion in assets under management.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 11:47:53 AM

Things are getting much more bearish now. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 11:32:54 AM

Obviously Crude did not like the crude inventories number out at 10:30. It dropped $2.00 Link

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 11:30:43 AM

Adding to my "I'd sure like to short the techs here and now" feeling, the weekly chart of the COMP shows the very significant bearish divergence at the current high vs. the Jan/Feb highs. Weekly stochastics has been overbought since April but is also negatively diverging from the April highs. If I see the COMP push up to the trend line near 2656 I will probably be all over it like bees on honey. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 11:20:02 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 11:12:35 AM

ES and YM have broken their PDLs and ER looks to be the next nmarket to try and break its PDL.

NQ has hardly even broken its PDH let alone its PDL. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 11:05:44 AM

VIX just spiked to new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 11:02:59 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 11:00:04 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $74.33 -0.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:59:23 AM

EIA's Weekly Gross Inputs, Crude Oil Inputs, Refinery Operable Capacity, Percent Utilization and # Days Supply of Crude Oil Table at this Link

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 10:52:10 AM

The world will be watching to see how the Nasdaq handles the 38% retracement of the 2000-2002 bear market leg down, at 2645.67. Just above that is the trend line along the highs since November 2006 which is where each rally leg has stopped. It's currently near 2656. Considering the fact that daily stochastics is back in overbought and looking at the bearish divergences on the MACD and RSI, does this chart make you want to short it or what? The danger of course is if too many are thinking the exact same thing. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:48:16 AM

EIA's Weekly Crude Oil, Total Gasoline, Refom. Gasoline, Total Distillate and Diesel Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:38:11 AM

Builds in Gasoline and refined products.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:35:48 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $154.22 -0.18% ... gives back gains. Back below $155 strike

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:35:16 AM

3.1 million barrel build in Crude Oil. Should weigh on the complex.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:31:10 AM

EIA Inventory data being released

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:27:42 AM

European Markets: ... fractions lower. FTSE-100 off -0.07%, DAX -0.28%, CAC-40 -0.27%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:24:44 AM

Asian Markets: Link

$SSEC Link ... lower on concern that new share listings could push prices lower.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 10:21:51 AM

Well the US$ has certainly found where the buyers are willing to take a stand. I would not be surprised to see this market retrace back to at least the magenta 20EMA from this very obvious support. Link

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 10:19:38 AM

Looking at the daily chart of TNX, I continue to believe we'll see rates head up to the 5.4% area before either topping out there for the year or setting up another pullback. If TNX does rally up to that level I believe it will be a very good opportunity to buy bonds (including in your retirement accounts) since it's possible we'll see the start of a long decline back down to record lows as the market gets a whiff of too much slowing in the economy. Link

Then, as I've pointed out in the stocks, if we get a sideways/down correction (bold green wave-iv on the chart) then we'll know rates will probably head higher and you can exit any long bond play. For the even longer term perspective, this weekly chart shows how I think rates will go (possibly as high as 5.5%) and why the next high (assuming we get it) could be a very good buying opportunity for bonds: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:17:47 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $130.50 +2.58% ... that's a new 52-weeker. #2 most active behind HLT.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 10:17:16 AM

These are not giving any clues as to direction. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:16:18 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 10:15:31 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- More nonmanufacturing companies in the United States were growing in June than at any time since last April, according to a survey of companies released Thursday by the Institute for Supply Management.

The ISM nonmanufacturing index rose to 60.7% from 59.7% in May. It's the highest since 61.1% in April 2006.

Readings over 50% indicate more firms are expanding than contracting. The index has been above 50% for 51 straight months.

Comments from purchasing managers were mostly positive about business conditions in June, ISM said.

Economists expected the ISM index to fall slightly to 58.2%

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:12:08 AM

Manpower (MAN) $93.97 +0.06% ... holding tough.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:11:03 AM

ISM June Services Index Highest Since April 2006

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 10:10:36 AM

It is not surprising that the AD line is a neutral +110 and that the AD volume is not taking any direction at all. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:10:11 AM

ISM June Services New Orders Index 56.9 Vs May's 57.4.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:09:35 AM

ISM June Services Prices Index 65.5 Vs May's 66.4.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:09:04 AM

ISM June Services Employment Index 55.0 Vs May's 54.9.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:06:43 AM

ISM June Services Business Index 60.7 Vs May's 59.7. Consensus was 57.5.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 10:05:30 AM

CRude trading above $72.00/bl now. This should be putting pressure on the market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 10:03:56 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 9:59:49 AM

Blackstone Group Buying Hilton Hotels for $20.1 Billion Cash ... Values HLT $45.57 +26.38% at $47.50.

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 9:56:10 AM

The 10-year yield (TNX) 60-min chart shows it has jumped up and out of a descending wedge pattern so it looks to have put in a low for now. If it pulls back to close this morning's gap up, retesting its broken downtrend line in the process, it could set up a "buy" opportunity for yields which would be a sell setup for bonds. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 9:54:47 AM

ECB's Trichet Signals Next Hike Could Be October

DJ (partial) - European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday the bank's governing council would continue to "monitor closely" medium-term risks to price stability in the euro area, a signal it will raise interest rates at least once more this autumn.

But Trichet left markets unclear on the precise timing of the central bank's next rate hike, saying he did not wish to counter market expectations the move will come either in September or October.

The euro lost ground against the dollar on the absence of a firm indication from Trichet that the next rate rise would come in September. Shortly after the press conference the euro was trading at $1.3615, down a quarter of a percentage point from its level before Trichet started speaking.

The central bank head was speaking during a press conference following the ECB's decision to keep its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.0% in July, a decision widely anticipated by markets.

Trichet said the council now expects consumer price inflation in the thirteen countries that share the euro to pick up "significantly" towards the end of 2007 after a slight fall in the short-term.

"The medium-term outlook for price stability remains subject to upside risks," Trichet said. "Given the positive economic environment in the euro area, our monetary policy is still on the accommodative side."

The ECB president referred to "vigorous" money and credit growth in the euro area providing what he termed "ample" liquidity. He said the council would act in "a firm and timely manner to ensure price stability in the medium term."

Trichet has in the past used the phrase "monitor closely" to indicate the ECB is likely to raise interest rates in the near future. Its use this time suggests the central bank is likely to raise its key rate again later this year.

That hike is unlikely to come in August after Trichet confirmed the ECB's governing council would likely meet by teleconference rather than in person next month. Instead his comments raised the possibility that the ECB could delay raising rates to 4.25% to October, making it less likely the refinancing rate will hit 4.5% during this year.

Jeff Bailey : 7/5/2007 9:49:47 AM

NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2,646.47 +0.05% ... retraces 38.2% of its March'00 all-time high to recent Sep'02 relative low.

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 9:49:46 AM

Quick update on the DOW chart since it's one of the more negative ones this morning. With the drop down from resistance at its broken uptrend line (same for SPX), as well as at the projection for two equal legs up from June 27th, it looks like a bearish kiss goodbye so be careful if you're holding long. This could easily turn right back around and spike the shorts out once again (especially with the lower volume environment--and bouncing as I type) but if it continues lower then watch for support at its broken downtrend line near 13450. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 9:43:09 AM

I have been looking at the DOW daily chart with a bearish perspective because the MACD was making lower highs and lows but the price was not. But if you step back a ways you see that the move from the June 4th highs has been mostly sideways and the MACD has been falling and that is bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 9:42:14 AM

The Russell 2000 was building a very nice Head and shoulders formation and I was all set to back up the truck once that formation confirmed. But alas it did not confirm and now it is threatening to break the formation and a bearish formation that does not confirm is bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 9:40:20 AM

All markets are now breaking their respective overnight lows.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 9:26:11 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Employment in the U.S. private sector grew by 150,000 in June, the fastest rate in seven months, according to the ADP employment report released Thursday.

The report hints that the nation's nonfarm payrolls rose about 175,000 in June after adding in government jobs, stronger than the 130,000 estimated by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The nonfarm payrolls figure will be released Friday by the Labor Department.

The report shows "an acceleration of employment," with the average gain over the past three months rising to 103,000 from 75,000 in the three months ending in April, said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomics Advisers LLC, which calculates the report from payroll data provided by Automatic Data Processing Inc.

"The acceleration of employment is broadly consistent with the upturn in [gross domestic product] growth early in 2007 and other labor market indicators such as unemployment claims," Prakken said.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 9:20:39 AM

Dateline WSJ - Office rents are skyrocketing across the nation, driving up costs for businesses large and small, thanks to a dearth of space in some major markets and a new breed of deep-pocketed landlords who can afford to hold out for premium tenants.

Nationwide, effective rents on office properties -- the amount tenants pay after concessions -- jumped an average of 3.1% during this year's second quarter, up from gains of 2.8% in the first quarter and 2.1% in the year-earlier period, according to a report scheduled for release today by real-estate research firm Reis Inc.

That was the sharpest quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2000, before the combined effects of the technology-stock bust and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks caused office vacancies to rise and rental rates to fall.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 9:18:55 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits increased slightly last week, as expected, suggested labor markets faltered a bit in June following strong results for May.

Still, jobless claims levels remain in a range consistent with moderate growth in monthly employment.

Jobless claims were up 2,000 to 318,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis in the week ended June 30, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims for the June 23 week were revised to 316,000 from 313,000.

The data were broadly in line with Wall Street expectations for a 2,000 rise, though last week's level was slightly higher than expected given the upward revision to the previous week.

The four-week average -- which economists use to gauge underlying labor market trends -- rose by 1,750 to 318,500, a two-month high. There were no special factors affecting the figures, a Labor Department analyst said.

Jane Fox : 7/5/2007 9:17:26 AM

YM and ES briefly broke their PDHs (Tuesday's intraday highs) but have retreated back into their respective PDRs. YM has almost retested its PDL.

ER and NQ both tagged their PDHs but were not able to break them.

All markets are making lower lows and highs except NQ, which seems to be once again our stronger market. Link

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 9:07:00 AM

Equity futures have taken a bit of a spill since the high near 8:00 AM, with YM more negative than the others. Any split in the market today (such as the DOW down and NDX up) would be a heads up for at least short term topping. While the techs could rally on their own, without all 4 cylinders firing it would be a worrisome sign for the bulls.

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 8:36:36 AM

With NQ up 5 points, if it holds into the open, that will have NDX gapping up to its potential resistance level near 1968 (as shown on the chart posted last night, below) and thereby setting up a potential gap n crap this morning. Obviously if it continues rallying instead it will be bullish as it will have jumped right over resistance. Watch for a possible run to 1980 in that case.

Keene Little : 7/5/2007 8:32:12 AM

Following the opening of the European markets the overnight gains in equity futures were quickly given up. But since 4:00 AM they've clawed their way back up to near their highs. Bonds are down, yields a little higher. The unemployment numbers at 8:30 and then ISM Services at 10:00 followed by crude inventories at 10:30 are our only reports today. Expect another low volume trading day.

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