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Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:52:00 PM

NDX July Options Montage at this Link ... Tough to determine a "Max Pain" here, as 4 out of 5 top OI's are call side.

2000 Call Long would have greatest risk.

Should VXN dart lower, keep an EYE on those 2000 Calls. If it's NAKED, a move much above MONTHLY R2 (1,991.57) starts assessing risk to WEEKLY R1 (2007.13), then R2 at (2,025.95).

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:32:56 PM

QQQQ July/August Options Montage at this Link

An eyeballing of July "Max Pain" looks to be $46.50-ish.

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 11:02:57 PM

With SPX and DOW looking so similar I'm just showing SPX charts tonight. The daily chart shows price stopped just shy of the downtrend line from June 1st, currently just above 1535. The bearish wave count calls for a decline to start in earnest right about now. A break below 1484 is needed to confirm the high is in. Link

A rally above 1540 would suggest we're heading for the upside Fib projection near 1558. The 60-min chart shows a closer view of the leg up from June 27th: Link The trend line mentioned for the daily chart is at 1535 and then a Fib projection at 1538 for the potential ascending wedge pattern for the rally from June 27th. That's why if SPX gets above 1540 I think we should be looking for the higher Fib near 1558. Otherwise a drop below the uptrend line from June 27th, currently near 1510, would be a heads up that we might have seen THE high.

NDX daily chart shows a doji (close to a hanging man doji) at trend line resistance so it looks good for a pullback starting Tuesday. Then we'll find out if it's going to be a sideways/down choppy pullback that leads to another leg up (bullish wave count) or the start of something more serious to the downside (bearish wave count). It takes a break below 1901 to tell us the bears are in control. Link

I know a few people follow CME and with all the merger news between CME, ICE and BOT I thought it would be worthwhile to look at the longer term chart of CME--the weekly chart with the EW count on it: Link The EW count is for those who like to follow these, and it's my best guess on a pattern that has been somewhat confusing the past year.

The weekly wave count says the current leg up from May is either going to be completing the 5th wave of the rally from its inception at the end of 2002, or else it's wave-B of a larger A-B-C pullback. The bullish count calls for CME to continue to chop its way higher, with upside Fib targets near 614 and then as high as 686. I think the lower target would be the more likely.

The signficance of the bullish wave count is that once a 5-wave move is complete the next big move will be a correction of the entire 5-year rally. The more immediate bearish count is looking for a minor new high around 589 to then lead to a strong leg back down, with downside targets near 490 and then as low as 429. The daily chart shows a closer view of the price action this year: Link

A slight pullback should lead to another minor high, target 589.35, and then either the start of a larger decline (to 490, maybe 429) or just a choppy pullback to be followed by a choppy move higher in an ascending wedge pattern as depicted (in green). A break above 590 would suggest the bullish wave count is correct while a break below 526 would say the bearish wave count is correct.

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 10:17:42 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/9/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Marc Eckelberry : 7/9/2007 8:08:08 PM

The fact that I am looking for a swing trade down, does not mean I am mega bearish longer term. If the COMP holds above 2645 on a closing basis after any correctibe move this week, we could be going much higher.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/9/2007 7:20:35 PM

And if they do take it up to QQQQ 50 without any pullback before INTC/MSFT/YHOO next week, it would be madness to stay long.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/9/2007 6:26:36 PM

My guess is a steep sell-off either tomorrow or Thursday. It;s looking good for tonight if NQ loses 2009.75. Watch out, too many cheerleaders out there.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/9/2007 6:25:00 PM

Still short NQ, scaled out at lows and re-shorted highs. Cost basis is thus raised. They should drive the Q's to lower 48 before the opex run up, probably into Thursday, if the plan is to have a bullish opex week. If they plan on dumping opex, then yes, shorts will feel heat this week. But buying new highs is not usually productive short term, wait for the inevitable pullback. Going long here is not wise.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 6:21:05 PM

Aggressive NQ/NDX/QQQQ shorts most likely stopped today. Just above Friday's highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/9/2007 6:10:06 PM

NQ needs to hold 2009.75 overnight.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 6:07:53 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 5:53:52 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 5:49:56 PM

If aggressive short in AAPL, RIMM, NDX/QQQQ/NQ, or CROX, be careful ... very, very careful. Utilize options as I've warned, to at least mitigate risk with overhead supply limited. Gators and croc's seem to be hungry.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 5:28:30 PM

Oh my! Crocs (CROX) $47.88 +7.61% Link ... Link

The Alligator and the Bear Link (To be continued?)

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 5:18:28 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $29.01 (unch) Link ... To Announce "Major News Benefiting Small Businesses Worldwide" Tomorrow At 12:00 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 4:53:01 PM

Aluminum Corp. China (ACH) $47.50 +0.44% ... Agency crosses (200 shares) at $47.42. Call it unchanged extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 4:51:30 PM

DIA $136.48 ... flat from Monday's close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 4:51:05 PM

YM 13,471 ... +33 from Friday's settlement. +26 from Friday's close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 4:45:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

VXO.X 14.38 +0.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 4:41:45 PM

Alcoa (AA) $42.36 +1.68% ... called lower at $41.80 on headline numbers. Earnings season kicking off for Dow components. #21 Weighted component.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.81 on Revenue of $8.34 Billion.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 4:37:56 PM

Today's Global Economic Calendar Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 4:36:18 PM

eBay (EBAY) $33.61 +0.65% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 4:23:38 PM

US May Consumer Credit Increased $12.9B (released 03:00 PM EDT)

DJ- U.S. consumers borrowed double the amount Wall Street was expecting for May as credit-card use climbed at the strongest rate in six months.

Consumer credit outstanding grew by 6.4%, or $12.9 billion, to $2.441 trillion from $2.428 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve report Monday.

Credit in April climbed $2.3 billion, revised down from a previously estimated $2.6 billion increase.

Wall Street expected a smaller, $6.0 billion gain in borrowing during May.

Revolving credit, which mainly reflects credit card financing, rose by $7.2 billion to $894.8 billion from $887.6 billion in April. The 9.8% increase was the biggest since 14.5% in November.

Revolving credit in April increased $200 million.

May non-revolving credit, such as car and boat loans, grew $5.7 billion. That followed a $2.2 billion increase in April.

The credit data are often volatile from month to month and are frequently revised. They exclude home mortgages and other real estate-secured loans.

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 4:09:41 PM

SPX stopped just shy of the downtrend line from the June 1st high. If it can't power higher than that then the bearish wave count (with a set of 1st and 2nd waves to the downside from the June 1 high) is potentially very bearish. It needs to climb above the June 15 high (1538.71) and the June 1 high (1540.56) to negate the bearish wave count. Otherwise stay wary of this rally. Link

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 4:03:11 PM

NDX finishes with a doji, almost a hanging man, at trend line line resistance. It looks good for a pullback tomorrow. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:42:18 PM

Goldman Sachs' iShares Software (IGV) $47.60 -0.58% ... also rather thin.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:39:06 PM

Not sure SWH is best security for "pulse" on software, but we lost $GSO.X.

Will search for more actively traded holdr/ishare

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:37:42 PM

NASDAQ a/d still even, TRINQ 0.79 below 1.00 and WEEKLY Pivot suggests bullishness coming.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:36:19 PM

TRIN 1.05 ... above 1.00 with A/D rather positive (see 03:18:06) suggests leadership for % price gainers still very narrow, or gains fractional on broader spectrum.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:33:49 PM

European Markets: at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:29:29 PM

Looks like "firming" ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:29:01 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.13 +0.39% ... NAV history to 07/05/07 was $10.11. Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 3:25:17 PM

AD line and volume are bullish but nothing to write home about. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:26:01 PM

Haven't been able to keep an eye on bond offerings, or cancelations (firming, or continued cancelations) last several sessions.

Greater impact on brokers. (See end of quarter bond broker rankings) 06/29/07 MM 04:40:40 PM Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:22:42 PM

Financial Select Sector SPRDs (AMEX:XLF) $36.53 -0.40% ... WEEKLY Pivot $36.55. Conventional 19.1% retracement $36.77 (06/14/06 low close to recent 6/01/07 high close).

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:20:30 PM

XBD.X 260.05 -0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:19:53 PM

BIX.X 389.07 -0.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:19:28 PM

SPX's WEEKLY R1 (1,538.72). MONTHLY R1 1,534.55 yet to be tested.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:18:06 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:05:40 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 3:04:25 PM

SPX is looking more and more likely to reach up to its Fib target near 1538 before it'll be ready for a pullback. The important point to be made about this leg of the rally is that it has the potential to mark THE top of the rally from March and therefore July 2006. I'll definitely be looking it over carefully for a short play. Only after a pullback gets started will we get some clues about what might follow. But even a 2nd wave pullback (for the green bullish wave count) could see a drop to around SPX 1518. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 3:02:32 PM

StockTrader's Almanac ... Watch Out For Huge Market Gyrations (Up and Down) After July 4th.

July is Best Performing Dow and S&P Month of the Third Quarter.

4 Bull heads this week (Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday). Tuesday rather neutral with INDU up 47.6% of time, SPX up 42.9% of time and NDX up 61.9% of time.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 2:59:23 PM

This Week's #2 Chart of the Week (based on today's news) for INDU/DIA/YM traders Link

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 2:50:21 PM

The DOW is a little stronger than the others today and its pattern supports the idea that we could see it push higher into the close: Link The pattern from July 5th looks like another ascending wedge which fits for a 5th wave in the move up from June 27th, as I've been showing on the 60-min chart, and which looks like a larger ascending wedge: Link An ascending wedge for a 5th wave to end a larger 5th wave ascending wedge (ending diagonal) is potentially setting up a rather bearish move for a short play.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 2:48:07 PM

This Week's Chart of the Week for INDU/DIA/YM traders Link

Probably decisive for Dow 14,000.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 2:47:12 PM

ER is now getting overbot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 2:38:30 PM

Pivot Trader's Chart of the Week at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 2:17:40 PM

Interesting that ER has retraced more than 61.80% of its daily range but it is not overbot. Very slow and orderly climb.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 2:06:25 PM

Permian Basis Royalty Trust (PBT) $13.52 -0.44% ... Onshore Nat. Gas and Oil.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 2:03:16 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $54.42 -0.47% ... fading a bit. 12/01/06 relative high close was $55.05.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 2:02:03 PM

CRB Index (CEC:CRY) 421.13 +0.08% ... still matching its 12/01/06 relative high close.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 2:00:47 PM

Keene, the VIX is telling me higher is the order of the day. But I certainly agree that the internals are anything but strong and a pullback could happen at any time. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 2:00:05 PM

Went with CME instead.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:59:19 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $51.81 +5.30% Link ... Should'a pulled the trigger Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:57:54 PM

Intel (INTC) $25.00 +1.30% Link ... X gets the square. Another 52-weeker.

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 1:57:27 PM

The market refuses to sell off and keeps chopping its way higher. This looks like a rally waiting to fail, with weak internal market breadth supporting that view. It's just a matter of when the pullback will start. These kinds of days make for difficult trading because it's hard to trust the upside and yet the sellers can't get anything going.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:54:48 PM


DJ- Soup maker is trying to tap income-rising and time-pressed consumers in the world's two largest soup-consuming countries. China consumes about 320 billion soup servings annually, with Russia one-tenth that.

CPB $38.26 +0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:50:40 PM


DJ- Sells equity stake in its commodities arm to the Royal Bank of Scotland to form joint venture. Share repurchase equals 12% of California utility's market cap. Firm raises quarterly dividend and cuts 2008 profit target.

SRE $60.87 +2.64% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:49:33 PM


DJ- Swiss drug maker receives its first approval for Exelon, getting FDA clearance for the treatment of mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease. Patch preferred over capsules by most doctors and nurses.

NVS $55.22 -0.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:47:56 PM

PACCAR (PCAR) $93.68 +5.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:47:30 PM


DJ- American Real Estate Partners boosts offer for auto supplier to $2.9 billion, a move that comes after some large shareholders said they didn't support Icahn's buyout. Vote on deal postponed until next Monday.

LEA $36.85 +2.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:46:03 PM

Lexmark ... Press Release at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:44:09 PM


DJ- Shares of the printer and ink maker slide 6% as the company continues a recent trend and again cuts its forecast. Lexmark now sees 2Q earnings of 62 cents to 67 cents a share, below April's warning of 82 cents to 92 cents, and anticipates little third-quarter profit.

LXK $46.71 -5.44% ... CNBC mentioned "printer ink cartriges" was major drag.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:38:16 PM

US 6-Month Bills Auction

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $14.00 billion in six-month bills at Monday's auction at a high rate of 4.850%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $32.26 billion and accepted $14.00 billion, including $1.95 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 97.548056 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 5.055%.

The Treasury also sold $210.00 million of six-month bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.30, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 20.49%.

The median rate was 4.830%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.800%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $14.05 billion in bills for its own account in Monday's three- and six-month bill auctions. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $18.43 billion of maturing bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

Accepted indirect bids for the six-month bill were 28.2% of the total competitive amount, up from 20.3% in last week's six-month bill auction.

The high rate was up from 4.810% at the previous six-month bill auction.

The high rate was the highest since the rate of 4.865% at the six-month bill auction on April 16.

The issue is dated July 12 and matures on Jan. 10, 2008.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:12:32 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 1:07:03 PM

Ditto for the DOW. Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 1:06:32 PM

Once I saw that the SPX was not going to break support I started to look at the falling MACD as bullish since it was becoming obvious the SPX was into a sideways move and a falling MACD while price moves sideways is bullish. It is hard to tell how long this will go on but I now read this chart as bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 1:03:28 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 1:02:50 PM

I think a 38.20% retracement to the 50EMA is very possible before the Russell 2000 takes another run at yearly highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 12:58:45 PM

CME Daily Interval bar chart at this Link ... Back at MONTHLY R2. Green retracement anchored at recent low close, drag to bullish vertical count.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 12:53:02 PM

NYSE a/d 1,580:1,582

TRIN 0.98 .... all squared up.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 12:48:02 PM

Internals are of no use today. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 12:39:31 PM

Meeeow! ... Caterpillar (CAT) 80.43 +2.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 12:38:54 PM

Intl. Business Machines (IBM $108.89 -0.12% ... can't forget about Big Blue. #1 Weighting.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 12:37:55 PM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $63.16 +1.64% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 12:37:26 PM

Boeing (BA) $63.16 +1.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 12:37:07 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) alert! $136.56 +0.31% ... gets the trade at MONTHLY R1.

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 12:33:14 PM

Getting the little pop higher now. Watch ES 1544 for a high (two equal legs up from this morning's low) to try a short against today's high.

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 12:24:38 PM

I keep waiting for price to move but after the initial up and down move it's gone flat on us. I expect another leg down this afternoon, or at least that looks like the higher odds play. A little pop higher to a lower low for the day and then another leg down.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 12:12:45 PM

Germany's Finance Minister: "I Love The Strong Euro"

DJ- German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck Monday said he was not worried by the euro's strength against the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen.

Speaking to reporters ahead of a meeting of finance ministers from the 13 members of the euro zone - known as the Euro Group - Steinbrueck added that he favored a strong currency.

The euro has hit a series of record highs against the yen in recent days, and is also heading towards all-time highs against the dollar.

"I'm not worried about the strong euro," he said. "I love the strong euro."

The Euro Group's meeting will be addressed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who wants to postpone by two years a commitment to balance the government's budget given by the previous government.

That does not necessarily involve a breach of the budget rules - set down in the Growth and Stability Pact - which require that government's run budget deficits of less that 3% of gross domestic product.

But it does raise doubts about the commitment of leading euro zone governments to ensuring their public finances are sustainable over the medium term.

"We need to support the credibility of the Growth and Stability Pact," Steinbrueck said. "I would be very glad if France would do so."

He added that euro zone governments should stick to their agreed goal of balancing budgets by 2010.

"There's no reason to give up that target," he said.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 12:02:26 PM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $63.27 +1.83% ... Announces $10 Billion Stock Repurchase Program.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 12:01:17 PM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $63.23 +1.77% ... finds a bid. #9 heavyweight for INDU/DIA/YM

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:57:03 AM

Looks like I raised that stop too quickly and should have stayed with my orginal thought of giving the trade some room to breathe.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:54:24 AM

857.50 was just hit. Sometimes you are the windshield and sometimes the bug. WE have been the windsheild many times so being the bug once in a while is OK. WE still walked away with a profit albeit 1 tick.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:53:22 AM

Chicago Merc (CME) $569.30 -0.95% Link ... Did see trade at $580 this morning, so X to 580. Bullish vertical count grows to $680. Trade lower at $568 would be 3-box reversal, but don't chart today.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:48:58 AM

Dang they got us at 856.40. Oh well you can go golfing now.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:44:34 AM

Let's lower our target to 857.50. alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:42:54 AM

CME's Battle To Buy CBOT Set To End In Victory

Reuters Story Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:40:09 AM

So we either get 1 tick or 13.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:39:37 AM

WE at least will be able to pay the commish.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:39:21 AM

Raising the stop to 856.40 now locking in 1 tick.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:38:29 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:37:37 AM

Long from 856.30 with a stop at 855.80 and target at 857.90.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:33:23 AM

US To Sell $11.0 Billion 4-week Bills Tuesday

DJ- The Treasury plans to raise about $3.0 billion in fresh cash Tuesday with the sale of about $11.0 billion in four-week bills to redeem $8.0 billion in maturing bills.

The sale amount is down from last week's auction, when Treasury sold $13.0 billion in four-week bills.

The Federal Reserve holds $18.4 billion of maturing bills for its own account, which it may choose to roll over in either Monday's three- and six-month bill auction or Tuesday's four-week bill auction.

The four-week bills will be dated July 12 and mature on Aug. 9. The CUSIP number is 912795ZU8.

Noncompetitive tenders for the bills, available in minimum $1,000 denominations, must be received by noon EDT (1600 GMT) Tuesday. Competitive tenders for the bills must be received by 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT) Tuesday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:33:19 AM

US To Sell $8.0 Billion 10-year Inflation-Indexed Notes Thursday

DJ- The Treasury plans to raise all new cash Thursday with the sale of $8.0 billion of inflation-indexed 10-year notes.

The 10-year inflation-indexed notes will be dated July 15 and and will settle July 16. They will mature July 15, 2017. The notes are commonly known as Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS.

Amounts bid by the Federal Reserve banks for their own account will be in addition to the public offering amount.

Noncompetitive tenders for the 10-year TIPS, available in minimum denominations of $1,000, must be received by noon EDT (1600 GMT) Thursday.

Competitive tenders for the notes, available in minimum denominations of $1,000, must be received by 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT) Thursday.

The CUSIP number for the notes is 912828GX2.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:28:04 AM

Stop to 855.90.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:23:36 AM

BIX.X 388.70 -0.78% ... probes DAILY S2.

DIA/INDU only majors to see trade at DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:20:36 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:16:25 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:13:41 AM

ER has made a high of 857.20 now but I will be leaving my stop at 855.40. Market is not in a quick move mode right now and I need to give this trade room to breathe.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:11:34 AM

I really think Crude will retrace here and I will be using the jtHMA charts to identify a long entry. Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:09:12 AM

You can raise the stop to 855.40 - just 2 ticks but heh 2 ticks is 2 ticks. alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:06:53 AM

11:05 Market Watch at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:07:01 AM

ER made a high of 856.80 so we were 5 ticks into profit and I did put the stop to 855.20 which was an adjustment from my original stop at 854.9 (although I never did get a chance to post the orginal stop.)

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:03:51 AM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 13,628 +0.12% Link ... DIA $136.30 +0.12% came within a penny of MONTHLY R1.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:03:47 AM

Target is 856.30 + 1.30 = 857.90

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:03:17 AM

Stop is 855.20 alert

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:02:58 AM

Long from 856.30 alert

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 11:02:20 AM

If the DOW can hold above 13600 then there's a chance the bulls can hang on here. Below that and price would be back below the downtrend line from June 15th and below a parallel channel for price action since the June 27th low--30-min chart: Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:02:17 AM

Long ER at 856.3 alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 11:01:41 AM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,527.45 -0.19% Link ...

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 11:00:59 AM

Short ER at 854.40. alert

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 10:59:36 AM

If the Russell breaks its resistance at 856 I will not be a buyer right away I would need it to break, retest that resistance has indeed become support and then I will consider it. Or I could just use the jtHMA charts to get me long again. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:59:08 AM

Asian Markets: Link

$NIKK Link ... Challenging 52-week highs.

$HSI Link ... new 52-weeker.

$SSEC Link ... still digesting.

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 10:56:22 AM

The DOW and SPX have now dropped below their uptrend lines from June 29th so that should be an indication that that leg up is finished. Now I'll be watching to see what kind of pullback we get (assuming we'll now get one). If it's a choppy sloppy sideways/down variety (which I'm thinking it will be) that lasts a few days (ugly trading if true) then the market will have new highs following that.

But if we start dropping harder, especially with a drop below the uptrend line from the June 27th low, then more bearish things could be happening. For now I'd prefer the short side but I'd trade on the light side until we get some more clues as to what's next.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:50:00 AM

Jefferies Analyst Says BA Could Book 1,000 Orders for Dreamliner Within a Year

AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:48:30 AM

Boeing (BA) $100.59 +1.72% ... #2 heavyweight in PRICE-weighted INDU/DIA/YM. Needs a trade at $102 to get back on a "buy signal"

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 10:49:49 AM

WE are overbot now and I see an ER long at 857.30. Alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:31:05 AM

DJ- 2 Shell Workers Taken Hostage In Nigeria

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 10:26:07 AM

The market is certainly trying to rally but there doesn't seem to be much energy behind it (just like last week). The danger for longs in this environment is that it could suddenly let go to the downside. But clearly the bears have not been able to do anything, yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:24:48 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $76.63 +1.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:24:18 AM

Chicago Merc (CME) $577.23 +0.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:23:57 AM

US Energy (USEG) $5.75 -0.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:23:39 AM

Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) $13.59 +0.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:22:57 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $54.89 +0.38% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:21:42 AM

Iraq Minister: Turkey Has 140,000 Troops On Iraq Border

DJ (partial) - Turkey has massed 140,000 soldiers on its border with northern Iraq but so far there have been no violations, Iraq's foreign minister said Monday.

The Turkish military had no comment to the remarks by Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, and it was unclear where he got the figures.

If they were accurate, Turkey would have nearly as many soldiers along its border with Iraq as the 155,000 troops which the U.S. has in the country.

Zebari's comments came amid calls by Turkey's military for the government to give it the green light to carry out military operations in northern Iraqi against the rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK.

"Turkey is building up forces on the border. There are 140,000 soldiers fully armed on the border. We are against any military interference or violation of Iraqi sovereignty," Zebari said during a news conference in Baghdad.

Turkey has been pressuring the U.S. and Iraq to eliminate PKK bases in Kurdish-controlled parts of northern Iraq and has said it's ready to stage a cross-border offensive if necessary.

Zebari said that any problem should be solved through dialogue adding that "Turkey's fears are legitimate but such things can be discussed."

"The Iraqi government is trying to diffuse the situation," said Zebari, a Kurd from northern Iraq. "The perfect solution is the withdrawal of the Turkish forces from the borders.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:17:41 AM

PBR ... was trading $54.08 on May 31, so roughly 2.09 million shares among the 5 Florida pension funds.

3.14 million shares for Calstrs based on $54.08 price.

Stock trades roughly 5.6 million shares/day.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 10:16:18 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose early Monday, picking up where they left off last week as traders played off softness in the dollar.

Gold for August delivery gained $8.70 to stand at $663.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Other metals prices also gained ground.

"Market participants found a softer dollar once again conducive to being on the long side," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in a morning note.

The benchmark gold contract closed up $4.20 an ounce on Friday, yielding a modest weekly gain

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:12:35 AM

Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) $67.10 +2.03% ... DJ- Five Florida pensions funds will have to sell their shares in Brazil's state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR) if the company doesn't end its activities in Iran, the Valor newspaper said Monday.

The funds at the end of May had about $113 million invested in Petrobras shares, Valor said, without citing the names of the pension funds.

A new law passed in Florida recently gives pension funds administered by the state three months to identify in their portfolio companies that have investments in Iran, Valor said. The funds will then have another three months to convince those companies to end activities in Iran.

If the companies don't comply, the funds have one year to sell their shares in them.

Other U.S. states may follow suit. California currently is discussing a law proposal similar to Florida's law.

In early June, the California State Teachers' Retirement System, or Calstrs, sent Petrobras and several other companies with investments in Iran a letter asking them to re-assess their activities in Iran, according to media reports.

Calstrs has about $170 million in investments in Petrobras shares, Valor said.

Iran is in advanced talks with Petrobras to help the Islamic Republic undertake the first exploration of its deep offshore Caspian Sea waters, a senior official from the National Iranian Oil Co. told Dow Jones Newswires in June.

A deal with Petrobras to develop a pair of oil blocks in the Caspian could be reached this summer and may eventually require $2 billion of investment to develop, Seyed Mahmoud Mohaddes, director of exploration at the NIOC, said.

The company already has a $32 million contract to explore for oil in the Persian Gulf.

Both Petrobras Chief Executive Sergio Gabrielli and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in recent months have rejected pulling Petrobras out of Iran. Gabrielli recently downplayed the company's investment in Iran as "very small operations."

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 10:08:19 AM

I think the US$ could very easily break this support and head lower. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 10:02:32 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 9:59:01 AM

Crude is bullish and I wish I had taken a long when it revisited the $67.00/bl but since I didn't I will now wait for a reversal and buy the dip. I will identify that dip when the daily turns red and the 120/60 turn back green. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 9:58:50 AM

Overstock.com (OSTK) $20.19 +7.96% ... "hot" early.

Jeff Bailey : 7/9/2007 9:58:14 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 9:53:18 AM

NAZ to new yearly highs. Link

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 9:43:47 AM

NDX is pressing right up against its trend line this morning. Breakout in the making or revesal setting up? Guess and trade right and it could be a good trade. Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 9:43:43 AM

Goldbugs rejoice because the reverse H&S has confirmed. Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 9:39:37 AM

These are telling me the bulls have the ball this morning. Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 9:38:42 AM

Ad line is a bullish +684.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 9:36:18 AM

Gold is strong because Oil is strong. Link

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 9:36:17 AM

The DOW's broken uptrend line from March, where price stopped on July 3rd, is at 13645 so watch for a reversal of this early bounce. If it doesn't reverse then the next resistance is at the top of its ascending wedge pattern, currently near 13680.

Keene Little : 7/9/2007 9:24:01 AM

With NDX up against resistance (the trend line along the highs since May) I think the higher probability is for a pullback today. But the DOW and SPX look like they could press a little higher first (and their futures are up slightly). The combination could mean a choppy day so don't force trades.

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 9:20:58 AM

All American equity indexes (that I watch) have broken their PDHs. Of course you have to consider that they all closed pretty strong on Friday so this is not any really big deal. Also this sideways move is telling me the markets will break their overnight highs before they break (if they break) ON lows. Link

Jane Fox : 7/9/2007 9:11:41 AM

Dateline WSJ - In a dire forecast, the Paris-based International Energy Agency is warning of an impending crunch in the supply of oil and natural gas needed to power world economic growth in coming years.

The IEA is the energy watchdog of the world's 26 most-advanced economies, and its pessimistic assessment is contained in its latest annual medium-term forecast to 2012, which was released Monday. The agency expects oil supply to be tighter in coming years than it had previously forecast, with little prospect of relief except a possible easing should world economic growth falter.

The IEA doesn't forecast oil prices, though its conclusions imply that consumers should expect continued upward pressure on the cost of energy.

"Oil and gas price pressures look set to remain in the coming years," the IEA report said. "Slower-than-expected GDP growth may provide a breathing space, but it is abundantly clear that if the path of demand does not change on its own, it may well be driven to change by higher prices."

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