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OI Technical Staff : 7/13/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 8:15:08 PM

Trade Blotter of CLOSED Trades that I've made at this Link

Tan shaded (Column A and P) is the RISK Managed portfolio ($10k in underlying = Full position).

Different way of trading, but addresses risk. I see traders building a short position in the YM and averaging "down" as the trade moves against them (price higher).

Ym long on 7/5 and average UP as trade moves in favor on 7/6. Then leg out higher on 7/12 and 7/13.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 7:31:44 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Closed out partial CME today and last portion DAW-HE at the bid of $5.50 as DIA approached target of $140.

Have a great weekend!

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 7:19:49 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 5:29:50 PM

Ross Stores (ROST) $31.86 +0.09% Link ... Here's and NQ/NDX/QQQQ component that gave a reversing LOWER PnF sell signal on Wednesday 07/11/07.

Keene covered puts that morning!

But an aggressive short in ROST might well see now what Keene saw Wednesday morning.

ROST's "market", or BPNDX has reversed back up and has built further to "bull confirmed."

OK, if aggressive short, then cover 1/2.

Rising tide can lift all boats.

You've seen what the bullish % can point to, don't wait until $36 to find out.

RS of ROST is negative on all counts (longer-term and shorter-term). But understand, the stock turned "weak" RELATIVE to the market on 7/14/04. ROST looks like it was trading about $24-$23 in July (blue 7) of 2004. Momentum has just turned up. That seems to last for 7 weeks from what I've seen. Sometimes MUCH longer.

Sector BPRETA is "bear alert." That means the sector was above 70%, and reversed back below 70%. 56% tells us field position (50-yard line in football is 50%). If the SECTOR turns back up to 62%, then sector is "bull confirmed" and bulls have the ball on the bear's 38-yard line!

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 5:11:10 PM

M, m, m ... here's something .. and it goes with the "rising tide can lift all boats."

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 5:06:38 PM

Kind'a glad they did! Nice bull trade on the DIA's! Probably got near our $140 target faster than it would have if they hadn't!

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 5:02:49 PM

Somewhat similar looking to late-December/early January.

Couldn't believe bears were shorting so aggressively Tuesday in the NQ. Or was it YM?

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 5:00:40 PM

Citrix Systems (CTXS) $34.42 -3.12% Link ... the trade at $35 is actually the SECOND consecutive buy signal. ONLY the FIRST reversing upward buy signal ($32) adds to a bullish %.

I show the chart as the BPNDX does achieve "bull confirmed" status. See that trade at $27 in late December?

You can tie it in with the BPNDX Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 4:49:51 PM

Alert for the "shakeout" on this one Link ... I like to see the "shakeout" come closer to the "sell signal." Nice 7-month consolidation.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 4:46:35 PM

Tellabs (TLAB) $11.88 -0.33% Link ... One of the NQ/NDX/QQQQ that gave a reversing higher Pnf buy signal.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 4:46:53 PM

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) $98.39 +1.45% Link ... One of the NQ/NDX/QQQQ that gave a reversing higher PnF buy signal.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 4:32:32 PM

BIIIIIG earnings week next week. Lots of financials and YHOO, EBAY, and the GOOG.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 4:29:37 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 855.77 +0.06% Link ... does close above its 6/04/07 high CLOSE of 855.09.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 4:26:11 PM

Jim! ... Hey, at least that's the index that is "underperforming" and a little more out of favor. If traders are going to be short/bear a US index with no overhead supply, RUT.X might be less pain on the brain.

Still, option mitigates bear risk that much more.

Watch those a/d indicators. If bullishness starts broadening out ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 4:20:11 PM

Marc ... good question (03:45:23 PM). The answer is "OVERLEVERAGED" for the size of the account they're trading.

Still can't believe APPL from that June 13th low. Link

One-month anniversary today.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 4:07:08 PM

This is how you get the swing at a good price. If you wait for the perfect price, you sometimes miss the whole move.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 4:05:21 PM

It looks like SPX is going to settle below 1552.87 (I'm showing 1552.26). I'm sorely disappointed in the bulls today. They let us all down. But hey, look at the bright side. They have something to shoot for on Monday! I'll get charts updated when I fix the problem getting charts uploaded. Have a great weekend.

Jim Brown : 7/13/2007 4:07:11 PM

With all the geopolitical hot spots and recent terrorist activity I try to be short the Russell futures at the close every Friday. I entered today at 861.50 when the last roll over began. You never know when the next 9/11 will occur. Weekend sporting events have always been rumored as a likely target.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 4:01:27 PM

Bingo. Core short position is now very profitable. Just like that.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 3:59:48 PM

YM ... 1 point = $5 ; 20= $100 ; 30= $150.

I usually look for a MINIMUM of 40-points in a day trade.

I do NOT hold long/short overnight.

When world peace is upon us, then I might update my plan.

A stated goal in my futures trading account business plan.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 3:58:21 PM

2 minutes to go. Hold it Boyz.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:55:20 PM

I only do these trades at market extremes (before I get the usual wave of negative postings). On other days, I day trade with the flow. I did not short yesterday, for instance, save a brief attempt at the open when it seemed like we could drop just for a minute.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 3:53:30 PM

Missed Mission ... Entrepreneur.com Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:53:20 PM

Next high would be 10420/10426, if they give it, add on there, it will drop after back to 10410, take +10...If we don;t get past 10410, you have a great position short over the weekend anyway. It DOES NOT HAVE TO BE PERFECT. 20 or 30 point off for YM means nothing.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:51:31 PM

Bingo, another scalp. Take some off and wait for the next bounce. You always keep a core position in your swing (short in this case) and work aorund another set of contracts for reducing cost. This is not the cost averaging others think. My core position is light right now, 4 contracts. I will trade up to 10, and lighten up on drops and re-enter.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 3:51:18 PM

What's the goal for your account?

To beat the SPX by 10%/year, 20%/year, 30%/year?

How do you get a $5,000.00 account, $5,000,000.00 account to do that?

Just like company's will sell one segment business in order to focus on a more profitable business segment, traders need to have a GOAL. But they also need to know how to manage their positions (business segments).

Enron a good example, perhaps New Centry too. Didn't know how to manage, or adjust to change. Some say Enron management was misleading investors with their books and really wasn't managing what they said they were.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:48:47 PM

All the idiots that got stopped at 10410 now look like idiots. Sorry, but that is how they screw you with YM.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:48:12 PM

YM will often move 500 points within a week, both ways. You get pullbacks if your entry is 50 points or more above the 5 dma. It's now over 125.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:46:48 PM

It's all about getting a good entry. Otherwise, tight stops will liquidate your account in a few days. If you can;t take the heat on a wide stop, you should be trading options. Futures traders with tight stops never last.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:45:23 PM

I still don;yt understand why traders will spend 10K on buying puts, put in a 50% stop and then trade futures and freak out on a 20 point stop. Futures is a tool, just like options. Better yet, you can hedge overnight with other futures ect... So I prefer hedging to tight stops and overtrading.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 3:44:57 PM

Goldman Sachs Group's Mission Statement Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:43:25 PM

2 period RSI at 92.26, right in the swing zone. Use that period for swings.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 3:42:16 PM

I trade a large account too. For those that don't ... I might suggest DON'T average down.

Not a bad policy/discipline for those with large accounts either.

Need something to do this weekend?

Write a BUSINESS PLAN. May your account YOUR BUSINESS.

What are the disciplines of the business?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:42:29 PM

I use 50 point stops for YM, unless I am scalping with multiple contracts. In that case, I bracket orders and trade 15 points scalps.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:42:22 PM

In fact, overnight maintenance could be lower, 1750 I think. You should trade 1 contract per 10K overnight and maybe 2 intra day. That leaves you plenty room for error.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:38:32 PM

I trade a large account, but for those who don't, YM overnight is one of the cheapest out there, 2250 I think per contract. Intraday initial is lower, so you can scalp in and out and cost average very nicely. It's cheaper than option if you are counting premium loss.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 3:37:25 PM

YM/NQ/ES/MR shorts should have an idea by now that it takes a LOT of protective calls to be hedged. And for accounts that may not have "unlimited" amounts of capital, shorting to a market with no overhead supply like an institution can be dangerous for the retail trader like you and I.

See some of last night's commentary (Educational/Review at 09:15:12).

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 3:28:50 PM

Marc! For those futures traders that may be "averaging in" or "down" in their short positions, could you review margin requirements, etc. for them.

Had one email yesterday regarding this.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 3:26:39 PM

DIA bumping DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 3:25:50 PM

Swing trade bullish call filled alert at the now bid $5.50 for the DAW-HE

DIA $139.23 +0.65% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:20:10 PM

Not one negative article in the press. Not one. Just like late July 2005. Rings a bell?

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 3:19:52 PM

AD line/volume are anything but bullish. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:19:18 PM

Shorts are terrified and bulls are giddy.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 3:18:39 PM

Another positive day for the averages and another day for negative TICK readings for the day. It'll be two days with NYSE up but cumulative tick readings down. Market breadth is slightly negative. Must be nice to hold the market up, whoever's doing it. Care to guess? The initials start with PPT...

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 3:18:29 PM

March 24th, 2000 SPX high was 1552.87 and closed at 1527.57. This has been quite the day.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 3:16:28 PM

In March 2000 SPX hit at high of 1552.87 today's high so far is 1555.10 WOW!!!!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:15:44 PM

NQ 2046 is weekly R2

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:09:32 PM

Risk is to 14026 above 14003, but realize that 14003 is weekly R3. You rarely get weekly R3 without a minimum 100 point drop the following week.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:14:48 PM

Three days totaling over 500 points for the DOW. It's a beauty, but she could be poison soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:05:31 PM

You have to add some on the upticks, then take some off on the little pullback, then add again. It's work, but the rewards will be there.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 3:04:06 PM

My cost average is now 13980 on 6 lots. It's really pretty easy, scalp a few on the bumps, collect 10 pts, etc....For some readers who might be short, don't let the cheerleading get to you. We made a ton of money on the last drop and will make even more on the next. Daytrading was long today but swing trading says one drop early next week. So relax, shut out the noise and use your head, not your emotions.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 3:02:32 PM

Now all the bulls need to do is hold SPX above 1552.87 in order to claim victory for a new all-time closing high and not just another intraday high. Shouldn't be hard to do as I think the bears are pretty dejected about now. They'll be back at it next week but are probably done for the week. The only fly in the ointment is what traders will be willing to hold onto, or not, over the weekend. There are a lot of profits this week sitting on the table.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 3:02:13 PM

Swing trade bullish call stick it out there alert ... Let's sell long the remaining Dow Diamonds DIA Aug $135 Call (DAW-HE) in between at $5.50.

DIA $139.12 ... be back in a few.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:58:16 PM

Stepping away for 20-minutes. Quick meeting I have to attend.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:57:52 PM

I know it wasn't you Keene!

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:55:51 PM

VXO.X 14.76 -0.73% ... sits on WEEKLY Pivot 14.69

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 2:55:22 PM

Not me Jeff ;-) I jumped out of my QQQQ puts on Tuesday. I expected another leg up but not this strong. Wish I had reversed long, sniff...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:54:30 PM

DAW-HE $5.40 x $5.60

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:52:55 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $139.19 +0.61% ... benchmarking here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:52:21 PM

YM 14,000 alert!

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:50:20 PM

I know at least one bear that got his bell rung this week Keene!

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:49:40 PM

If you made millions in the NDX from early May to mid-June from the long side, don't blow it all now from the bearish side since then!

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 2:47:53 PM

Well ring that bell.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:47:29 PM

Bull Confirmed alert! (BPNDX) ... yesterday's action did see a net gain of two (2) stocks to reversing higher PnF buy signals. That has Dorsey/Wright's narrow BPNDX achieving "bull confirmed" status.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:42:59 PM

That reminds me.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:42:37 PM

Gets those institutions moving. Making the adjustments.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:42:11 PM

Those bullish % reversals are powerful aren't they?

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:39:00 PM

QQQQ $49.79 +0.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:38:01 PM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $224.58 +4.23% Link ... and another X

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:37:21 PM

Good gravy! Aggressive shorts really taking it now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:36:19 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $136.05 +1.49% Link ... X gets another square.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:31:56 PM

PBT $14.29 +1.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:30:30 PM

PHLX had enough ... 25 bid @ $0.05 on the PBTHC

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 2:30:28 PM

Lucky we got out of the long from 859.20 at 860.50 because that was high of the upward swing.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:28:00 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,288/1,679

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:27:42 PM

NYSE a/d 1,510/1,684

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:22:55 PM

I think I can, I think I can ... said the little "crazy train" that could.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:22:04 PM

Yessssss ....

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 2:18:47 PM

Looks like the bulls are going to do it--another attack on 1552.87 coming up. Can they do it?

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:16:28 PM

Check out the "flashing" in the PBT-HC ... really drives a market maker nuts.

Just snooping around and seeing if there's anything for a covered call that looks good. See what premiums there are.

Flashing is a technique a trader will use to get a fill.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 2:13:49 PM

Hit full target.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 2:11:51 PM

I've been suffering a lot of connection issues for the past hour and now can't seem to get charts posted again. I was going to show a chart of CME and how it has pulled back, and threatening to roll over after tagging its Fib projection level at 589.35 (shown on yesterday's CME chart). Like GOOG, that one looks like a good shorting opportunity. It's down $4 today.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 2:10:39 PM

Iran is no longer taking dollars for oil from Japan. Yen only. Do they know something? An attack coming? I would be very careful holding long overnight. Count me out.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:07:48 PM

As ER/MR futures traders know ... sometimes its that 1-tick that is so elusive.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:06:28 PM

SPY +1.30% last 5-days via my QCharts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:05:06 PM

IWM +0.17% last 5-days via my QCharts.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 2:04:44 PM

McMillan's weekly update. Wow! A bullish vortex of sorts formed and the storm swamped the market today (Thursday). The impetus behind the huge rally came from several sources: short covering, fundamentalists who decided that the retail sales report was evidence of continued consumer demand, and -- later in the day -- technical breakouts over several key levels. Some of the problems that the market had previously been facing still exist: a declining bond market (or rising rates), poor performance in the financial sector, and the continuing subprime problem. But those didn't seem to matter today.

$SPX had been bound by the 1490 - 1540 trading range. Today, it closed above there, at 1547.70, which is a new all-time closing high for $SPX. It still hasn't exceeded its all-time intraday high, at 1552, but that seems all but certain now. This upside breakout is quite bullish, as long as it holds. Sometimes trading range markets can be tricky, so any subsequent close below 1540 would be a big disappointment and would negate the potential bullishness of the breakout. On a more positive note, assuming that the breakout holds, it should generate a rally towards the 1600 level (basis $SPX) according to "standard" lore that a breakout from a trading range is usually equal to at least the size of the range itself (about 50 $SPX points in this case).

The equity-only put-call ratios had remained on sell signals, although they began to turn down (see Figures 2 & 3) a couple of days ago. A resumption of a downward trend in these ratios is a cancellation of the previous sell signals at a minimum, and can be considered a full-blown buy signal at best. As long as these ratios continue to decline, they will be considered bullish.

Market breadth continues to swing back and forth, following the market, rather than leading it. Data shows that there were 880 declining issues today, although I don't know how in the world there could have been that many.

Volatility indices continue to rise, in general. That is, the trend of $VIX is up (note the rising 20-day moving average on the graph, Figure 4). Even today, one would normally expect $VIX to drop much more than 1.10 if the Dow was up nearly 300 points, but it didn't. Of course, for some time, we have been expecting volatility to increase in general, and now it is. Perhaps it will increase during a rising market ala 1996-1999. But, in any case, increased volatility normally makes for interesting and tradeable markets for option traders.

In summary, it certainly appears that the trading range has been resolved in favor of an upside breakout. I would be more enthusiastic about this if a true washout had taken place, and if the breakout hadn't seem to come in such a panic fashion. But at this stage, it is a breakout, and by default the market is bullish as long as $SPX holds above 1540

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:04:31 PM

QQQQ +1.80% last 5-days via my QCharts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:04:09 PM

DIA +2.10% last 5-days via my QCharts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:03:22 PM

Might just be on to something.

Monday's wrap suggest BIG CAP and NARROW was the place to be for bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 2:01:55 PM

Hey! ... RUT.X's 06/04/07 high CLOSE was 855.09.

Yesterday's all-time high CLOSE was 855.18.

Analysis: Not a lot of conviction among buyers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 1:56:02 PM

Jane! How's the VERY BROAD RUT.X trading relative to its 6/04/07 high CLOSE?

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 1:55:14 PM

Good comments there on CNBC.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 1:52:29 PM

This late in the day I would reduce my target to more like 10 - 12 ticks.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 1:42:30 PM

Permian Basin ...

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 1:39:26 PM

Target is 859.2 + 1.3 = 860.50

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 1:39:07 PM

Just under 858.50

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 1:38:52 PM

Stop to 858.40

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 1:36:57 PM

Permian Basis Trust (PBT) $14.23 +1.35% ... sticks its head above MONTHLY R2 ($14.18).

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 1:23:04 PM

Stop will be 857.80 just under 858.00

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 1:22:08 PM

If this long triggers and you do decide to jump on board be prepared for a long trade. Long as in time not in which side you are on :)

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 1:20:55 PM

I see an ER long at 859.20 but be careful it is a summer Friday afternoon and the markets have been moving slowly. alert

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 1:18:31 PM

GOOG got the bounce up to the top of its ascending wedge and counts well to call a top here. It might get a bit higher to give us an throw-over but basically it looks done. I'd consider a short on GOOG here, stop at about 560. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 1:14:44 PM

Wilshire 5000 Composite (DWC) 15,663.80 +0.06% ... In yesterday's MM (see 03:00:07) I alerted traders that the DWC was challenging its 6/04/07 CLOSE.

CLOSES are important as confirmations, or failures at a previous inflection high, or low, suggest CONVICTION among buyers and sellers.

As you observe the $NYSI and $NASI you begin to observe the "bearish divergence" these VERY BROAD a/d measures alert us too.

What better way to continue to measure PRICE action that the DWC? (to be cont'd)

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 1:09:09 PM

NASDAQ Summation Index ($NASI) 20-point box chart Link ... Still in "O" at -81.35, but close to reversing back up if -80.00 measure is achieved.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 1:06:44 PM

NYSE Summation Index ($NYSI) 20-point box chart Link ... Has reversed back up at +220.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 1:03:53 PM

I keep hoping Oil will retrace just a bit so I can get long but so far it has not cooperated with me. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 1:02:11 PM

74 oil...

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 12:59:16 PM

ES 1560.75 could be the extent of this bounce (two equal legs up, 50% retracement of the small drop from today's high). That would be the level to short against today's high.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 12:42:31 PM

MOT missed, Sony Ericsson missed, Samsung missed. We are only rallying on M&A news.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 12:39:42 PM

One negative is that we have not had one decent tech earnings report, even after all the lowered estimates. It will change next week, but so far, it could give bulls as stall.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 12:38:52 PM

Everyone is ignoring the negatives, but when it suits them, that is all you are going to hear.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 12:32:09 PM

I don't think we have hit the highs, so I am treating any short trade as a swing until proven otherwise.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 12:31:29 PM

Shorts need to be prepared for the worst and use sound capital management. Just know that the next swing is down. Whether 50 points or a 100, no one knows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 12:29:56 PM

YM weekly R3 is 14003.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 12:24:39 PM

ER is lagging so is the SOX.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 12:24:31 PM

As long as you started this strategy today, you're ok, If you started yesterday, you are in big trouble.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2007 12:23:57 PM

We have reached that distance form the 5 dma where I once again start cost averaging into a swing short. I'm using YM, starting with 2 lots, I'll scalp a few, keep a core position and work my way into 10 contract free of cost once all is said and done. You just have to be patient, not start too early and ABOVE all TAKE profits. I did that with longs for months, now I am favoring shorts as the Gann turn date is fast approaching (7/15). Carl Swenlin also has the 20 week cycle any day now. Good enough for me, he called the low last year.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 12:12:06 PM

General Electric (GE) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.52 on Revenue of $41.7 billion.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 12:04:02 PM

Are those weenie-head bulls really going to leave us wanting for more today? Surely they can rally this back up one more time to ring the bell at SPX 1552.87. But the pullback on SPX has now taken on a small impulsive form and that suggests a bounce will fail at a lower high today and then drop lower again (not quite the same look on the DOW and NDX though). So watch for a retest of the high to try a short against it.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 12:03:31 PM

ER is now oversold but I don't think I will take a long reversal here.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:59:22 AM

Target hit!

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:59:06 AM

Once we break 858 I will put the stop to 859.20 just over 859.00.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:58:34 AM

Finally 858.30 breaks and the stop at 859.60 feels much more comfortable now.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:56:11 AM

AD line as not gotten above 0 all day. Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:52:08 AM

Dateline WSJ - CHICAGO -- Fallen media tycoon Conrad Black was convicted Friday of mail fraud and concealing documents from an official proceeding, but a jury acquitted him of wire fraud, racketeering and several other counts.

Mr. Black, the former head of the Hollinger International Inc. newspaper empire, had been accused of swindling shareholders out of millions of dollars.

A federal court jury of nine men and three women delivered their verdict after deliberating 11 days following 14 weeks of testimony at the racketeering and fraud trial. Jurors said Friday they have reached a verdict in the racketeering and fraud trial of fallen media tycoon Conrad Black.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:46:30 AM

I would feel a lot more comfortable with the stop at 859.60 if ER break 858.30. Seems stuck there.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 11:46:02 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Closed partial on CME at $585.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:38:19 AM

Feeling uncomfortable with the stop at 859.60 'cause it is not giving the trade enough room to breath.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:35:09 AM

Gee Keene that is a bullish wedge on the US$ chart isn't it. A formation that should not be ignored. TKS

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 11:33:41 AM

You could be right on the dollar Jane but just to offer a different opinion, I see the US dollar about ready to bust a move to the upside: Link And the shorter term charts (30-min here) support a bottom being put in now: Link A reversal back up here would leave a throw-under of its bullish descending wedge on the weekly chart. I remain bearish the metals because of this.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:35:38 AM

That may be too aggressive a move though.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:33:09 AM

Lower stop to 859.60 alert

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:31:46 AM

Short from 858.80 stop at 860.20

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 11:26:29 AM

Baker Hughes Sees Sequentially Lower Q2 Profit ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 11:18:18 AM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $84.32 -5.39% ... getting hit.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:16:39 AM

Looks like the US$ is making a bottom for now but I expect the support from last April has now turned to resistance and that resistance will hold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 11:13:24 AM

Should CME close around 585, next week's WEEKLY Pivot Levels would be $540.84, 562.92, Piv= 576.74 598.82, 612.64.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:08:29 AM

I also see a long at 860.60 alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 11:07:34 AM

CME $585.59 -0.37% ... bumping DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 11:06:34 AM

Have "looked ahead" at next week's StockTrader's Almanac. Bugger paid off this week.

No "bull heads" next week. One "bear head" on Friday.

See 07/09/07 MM @ 03:02:32 PM Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:06:26 AM

I will now take an ER short at 858.80. alert

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:05:57 AM

These are bullish but in the context of an AD line at -102 they take on a different tone. Link

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 11:04:33 AM

SPX's high today is 16 cents shy of the March 2000 all-time high at 1552.87 (today's high is 1552.71 so far). Surely they can do better than this. What a bunch of weenies these bulls are (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 11:02:04 AM

Bullish swing trade long exit 1/2 alert ... Let's sell five (5) of the nine (9) shares in CME Group (CME) at the bid of $585.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 11:00:31 AM

Of course you still have the bullish TRIN at 0.67 and AD volume making new daily highs and VIX new daily lows. sooooo

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 10:59:38 AM

AD line is a neutral -99 so that short may work nicely.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 10:59:10 AM

I see an ER short coming at 858.40.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2007 10:57:01 AM

I'm Back!!! Did you all see that post about the TRIN and what happened.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:55:16 AM

Dow breadth 15:15

"Big 10" are 6:4 in favor of advancers. CAT +1.29% and UTX +1.02%. MO -0.67%

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:53:18 AM

Intl. Business Machines (IBM) $108.97 -0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:52:34 AM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $63.38 +0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:51:54 AM

Boeing (BA) $101.06 +0.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:51:19 AM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 13,907.17 +0.32% Link ... X gets another square.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:45:04 AM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $220 Link ... X gets another square.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:43:46 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) alert! $138.91 +0.40% ... MONTHLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:42:56 AM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,549.20 +0.09% ... above yesterday's high. All-time high from 3/24/2000 just ahead at 1,552.87.

That was a reversal day as the SPX closed 1,527.46. It was its all-time high close, never to be seen until 5/21/07.

Important psychological benchmark. Not much technical. Unless of course, you bought some shares on March 24, 2000 and held.

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2007 10:40:08 AM

The USD/yen pair is now bouncing up toward the 122.35-ish resistance. The RUT is also beginning a bounce from the day's low. (I apparently have the power to move markets since prices often move just after I've made a post commenting on their levels!) The advdec line (as charted on QuoteTracker) remains negative, however.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:34:18 AM

Retail Sales Down Steeply In June ... AP Story Link

Linda Piazza : 7/13/2007 10:33:13 AM

I'm signing in for a moment to say that both the U.S. dollar/yen and euro/yen pair are somewhat weak today. Often, the actions of these pairs and equities move similarly, so they're not confirming equity strength this morning. In addition, the RUT is already pulling back, but only to a minor level. Anyway, these are not confirming strength this morning. The advdec line isn't supporting it, either. It's possible that they support the thesis that yesterday's big-range day could be followed by a small-range one today or even a pullback, although as Jane mentioned, TRIN is bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:23:29 AM

Should be getting our dividend from PBT on Monday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:22:22 AM

Nat. Gas +2.03% ... leader in energy complex.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:21:51 AM

Permian Basin Trust (PBT) $14.07 +0.21% ...

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 10:20:53 AM

Jane is still struggling with technical problems but sent this to me: Keene will you post that the TRIN is 0.68 and we should be expecting a bounce real soon. I saw this same setup the other day and it was really nice.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:20:53 AM

Oil up a bone on IEA demand forecast.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 10:14:15 AM

NDX has a clean 5-wave move up from June 26th and that leg up could be considered complete at any time. There's the possibility for it to press up to 2040 before starting a larger pullback into next week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:14:04 AM

Today's Global Economic Calendar at this Link ... Core retail sales weaker than expected.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 10:12:20 AM

The DOW has been stronger than SPX so it has already achieved the level where it has two equal legs up from June 27th (13884) but SPX would need to rally up to 1556 to achieve the same. If that happens we could then get a pullback into next week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:04:02 AM

NASDAQ a/d 1,029/1,622

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:03:49 AM

NYSE a/d 1,223/1,641

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:02:46 AM

Dow breadth even at 15:15.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:02:09 AM

Diamonds press best levels of the session. $138.82 +0.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:01:24 AM

Michigan consumer sentiment a little stronger than expected.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 10:00:33 AM

Sector action mixed to lower. Homebuilders +1.87% are only percentage notable. Airlines -0.87% and HMO's -0.79%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 9:59:19 AM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $63.16 -0.31% ... inched to new high for the month this morning, but slips red.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 9:55:24 AM

Alcoa (AA) $46.40 +2.45% ... underestimated its impact in Monday's Market Wrap. Seems to have been the "key stock" for yesterday's ride.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 9:55:19 AM

The move up from June 27th is subject to some interpretation as to what yesterday's rally was but looking at the whole move up, two equal legs up is at DOW 13884 and only because it's a measured move I'd watch that level for potential resistance. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 9:54:28 AM

Boeing (BA) $100.80 +0.01% ... still looking for lift.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 9:53:48 AM

Caterpillar (CAT) $85.74 +1.97% ... continue to impress. Notable new 52-weeker at the big board. #5 weighted Dow component.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2007 9:49:10 AM

General Electric (GE) $40.00 +2.43% ... X gets the square. #25 weighted Dow component.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 9:29:34 AM

Jane just emailed me and said she's having some technical issues and can't get logged into the Market Monitor. She's trying to get them resolved and will be with us shortly.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 9:26:05 AM

Retail sales fell -0.9%, the largest drop in two years, and is a symptom of higher inflation, gas prices, home values stagnating/dropping, loss of income (shall I continue?). Sounds like a good reason to rally don't you think? There is truly a disconnect between the market and reality right now but as traders we have to ignore the news and reality and just trade the charts.

What's amazing to me though is how all the hoopla over mergers, LBOs and other corporate shenanigans, all while the economy is slowing, is an exact repeat of what happened in 1929. And the quick correction in the spring followed by a super strong rally into August of 1987. As one who studies repeating patterns in the stock market I've got to tell you, this one is scary.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 8:41:17 AM

Doing the same thing (all-hours view) for ES shows a projection up to 1572.75 for a 5th wave. That would tack on another 17 points on top of yesterday's rally and frankly I don't see that happening. But then again I didn't see the strength of yesterday's rally coming either. Link

Futures are selling off after the 8:30 reports so it's time for the Fed to step in again and feed their dealers to keep this rally alive. What better way to distract people from Iraq, poor housing numbers, high oil prices, earnings misses, etc. Oops, letting my conspiracy theorist colors show. But someone needs to explain to me how such a strong rally can be accompanied by neutral TICK readings (and cumulative TICK readings held in negative territory until the very last part of the day) and a lack of institutional buying. There were a very select few who drove yesterday's market up.

Keene Little : 7/13/2007 8:28:49 AM

Equity futures have rallied again off the 6:00 AM low, just like they did yesterday. Here we go again? Usually after a big rally like yesterday's there will some consolidation but as this all-hours view of YM shows, if we've got a 5th wave to finish the leg up from Tuesday and it's to equal the 1st wave then look for YM 14072 before we see a pullback. I'm not saying that's what we'll get today (since all-hours charts are not always very accurate in EW analysis) but that's the potential I see. The first Fib target is 14009. Link

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