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Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:40:37 AM

CRB Index (CEC:CRY) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:24:41 AM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert ... on the CME Group (CME) $586.30 ... to $550 (from $536)

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:20:41 AM

Almost too easy isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:19:05 AM

RS chart of CME Vs. $SPX Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:18:28 AM

RS chart of GOOG Vs. $SPX Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:17:06 AM

RS chart of ACH Vs. CME Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:16:33 AM

RS chart of ACH Vs. GOOG Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:15:39 AM

RS chart of VLO vs. CME Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:14:58 AM

RS chart of VLO vs. GOOG Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:14:02 AM

RS chart of XLF vs. CME Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:13:30 AM

RS chart of XLF vs. GOOG Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:12:34 AM

RS chart of CROX vs. CME Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:12:05 AM

RS chart of CROX vs. GOOG Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:37:02 AM

News Corp, Dow Jones Reach Deal ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:58:44 PM

CROX ... with a BLUE anchored at the 6/22/07 close. That's what "was" into the 6/27 trade. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:49:21 PM

IF CROX trades $43.47/$43.59 next couple of days, what might a trader do?

Stay tuned and find out?

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:46:55 PM

CROX daily interval bar chart. BLUE retracement is low CLOSE 3/13/07 and I've "pulled it higher" to 7/11/07 close. Why did it close there? What matters right now is that it did (long, or short).

PINK is June's MONTHLY Pivot retracement and July's MONTHLY Pivot retracement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:40:39 PM

CROX's PnF chart at this Link ... Why options? It is what I've been saying for weeks, if not months, if not years.

STOCK/security is at all-time high. OVERHEAD SUPPLY is LIMITED. Do I want to be SHORT the STOCK/SECURITY?

Bullish vertical count was $28.00 (post-split). Can it go to $50.00, $55.00, $60.00? No? What if it DOES?

Put OPTION limits RISK as long as I don't OVERLEVERAGE!

Now, my BAR Chart of CROX.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:39:34 PM

MM Profiles That I've Made ... Question/Clarification ... Jeff: You gave a Swing trade put option alert for CROX. I understood this to mean that you were Buying Sept.07 PUT of 42.50 strike at 3.30 when the stock was trading at about 46.69. This did not involve any transaction in the stock.

The Current OPEN MM shows 100 shares.

I BOUGHT the PUT only.

Reply: Yes! Correct! ONLY the put option (CQJ-UV). The "100 shares" is only the Benchmark of WHEN the put option was purchased. One contract is equal to 100 shares. So, I simply Benchmark as if to represent a 100 share SHORT position. RISK is defined as MAXIMUM of $3.30 x 100 = $330.00.

Stock trader only? You might think "puts are too expensive, I'll just go short!" Hey, that's fine. Place a STOP at $46.69 + 3.30 = $49.99 perhaps? That's an attempt to LIMIT RISK of $330.00 on 100 shares. ANYONE can trade here in the MM.

While my QCharts' "portfolio" monitor shows high/low for the CQJ-UV as $3.20/$3.20, that is CBOE only. Today, there were actually 295 contracts traded (all exchanges: ISEX, PHLX, CBOE, NYSE, AMEX and BOSX) with high/low today of $3.30/$3.00.

Here's my MM OPEN Positions, with today's Level II for the CQJ-UV Link

CROX trade history: Back on 6/13/07 I profiled two (2) of the CROX July $42.50 Puts (CQJ-SV) with no stop at that time (this was pre 2:1 split), target was $42.50 ($85.00 pre-split). Trade was CLOSED out on 6/27/07 for $2.20 when CROX traded TARGET of $42.50 (post split).

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 10:23:20 PM

Same with GOOG--looks like a good finish to its rally. It's a short against Monday's high. Link

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 10:19:12 PM

CME did a nice stop run on Monday but by the end of the day left a flaming shooting star candlestick. It looks like a nice finish at resistance and is a good short play from here, stop against Monday's high. Link

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 10:09:35 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

There are not a lot of changes from the roadmap updates from Sunday night. The DOW got all the lovin' on Monday but it's looking tired. It missed 14K by a measly 11 points and the way the charts are looking, the bulls might have to wait before trying again. The daily chart shows just the bullish count with an expectation for a pullback (green wave-iv) this week and then final rally into the end of the month: Link

The 60-min chart shows the possibility for THE market high but that will be clearer once we see a pullback. If it's a choppy sloppy sideways/down pullback then another leg up should be coming. A sharp and impulsive decline that takes out 13670 would suggest we might have seen the high. Link

The SPX daily chart shows the potential for a choppy mess before becoming clearer what it's up to. Negative divergences urge caution even if it is a tad early to load up on short positions. Link The 60-min chart is the same one I showed at the end of the day and depicts price pulling back this week, perhaps as low as 1535, before heading higher next week. A break below 1506 would say we've seen the high. Link

The NDX daily chart shows a bearish wave count that calls Monday's high as THE high but it takes a drop below 1948 to suggest it's true. Meanwhile a choppy pullback could lead to another run higher next week. Link The 60-min chart shows how a pullback could find support above 2000 before heading higher: Link

No change for the RUT--it's still a messy price pattern. It was quite a bit more negative than the others today and that's never a good sign. The choppy price climb looks like an ending pattern but as always it's a challenge figuring out where the end will be. A break below 834 would suggest we've seen THE high. Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/16/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 6:40:24 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 4:52:45 PM

Aug'07 Unleaded $0.02-box at this Link

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 4:47:50 PM

I'm going to leave the green line on the SPX 60-min chart, showing the path of a pullback and then new rally leg next week. We'll see how well price follows that path (or else I'll have to take it off and modify the potential price path depending on what happens next). Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 6:22:32 PM

Next Week's headline ... US Retail Gasoline -8 Cents In Week To $2.97/Gallon.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 4:25:16 PM

EIA: US Retail Gasoline +6.8 Cents In Week To $3.049/Gallon

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 4:20:14 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 4:04:06 PM

Tonight, we review the broader.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 4:03:44 PM

I did the same last Monday's Market Wrap. Narrow/large cap was where the buyers flocked.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 4:01:01 PM

That selling started when Cramer said to take some off the table Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 4:00:55 PM

European Markets: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:55:11 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $76.08 -1.51% ....

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:54:27 PM

$GASO:$WTIC 0.30-box chart Link ... Last week's update had me thinking it would take a measure below the 30.90 level. We've got it. See if buyers turn to sellers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:52:09 PM

August "crack" looks 28.674.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:51:37 PM

August Unleaded (rb07q) settled down $0.0986, or -4.43% at $2.1262.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:48:51 PM

This is only Monday, so there is time for many surprises, up or down, this week. I am just extrapolating out into September and how this feels like July 1998.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:45:26 PM

We will see a +30 VIX this summer.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:45:25 PM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) $89.55 -0.86% ... #4-most heavily weighted YM/DIA/INDU component.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:45:15 PM

Also, options will get more expensive, as the VIX climbs to +30, +40.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:44:42 PM

In fact, traders that get too cute waiting for perfect tops always miss them then they suddenly start buying the wrong pullback. The one that does not come back up.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:44:02 PM

August Crude Oil (cl07q) settled up $0.22, or +0.30% at $74.15.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:43:13 PM

If we duplicate July 1998, that would put SPX at 1250 in October. It won't matter much where you short this.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:41:55 PM

Inversion alert! ... on Aug'07-Jan'08 Nymex Crude Oil futures.

Long time since we've seen this.

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 3:41:01 PM

So begins the chop. Get used to it if this is indeed going to be a 4th wave correction that takes up most of this week. Choppy whipsaw price action that goes net sideways. The only ones who would benefit from that would be credit sellers.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:36:24 PM

And it was still within a strong bull market. So the more cockiness you read or hear, sell it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:35:33 PM

AD lines were +1500 on Thursday. That is still decent. But Friday and today, with SPX new highs and DOW new higs, no confirmation. As a reminder, from July 1998 to October 1998 we fell more than 20%.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:32:27 PM

They sold SPX 1552.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:29:00 PM

Wilshire 5000 (DWC) 15,682 -0.11% ... Thursday's all-time high CLOSE was 15,652.94.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:27:10 PM

Or Thursday morning!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:26:16 PM

Non confirming AD lines on new highs is like the summer of 1998.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 3:25:34 PM

That long from 854.20 hit target but without us.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:20:44 PM

Intl. Business Machines (IBM) $110 ... X gets the square.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:19:39 PM

Afternoon low? ... $101.00

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:19:08 PM

Boeing (BA) $102.05 +0.16% ... best levels of the session.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 3:18:29 PM

I didn't "play" that trade well - I was too aggressive in raising my stop.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 3:17:58 PM

With trading you not only have to know which direction you also have to know how to play the market you are trading.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:17:15 PM

Afternoon low? 14,000

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 3:16:45 PM

Now is the time to raise the stop but alas we have already been stopped.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:16:00 PM

YM 14,042 .... +69 now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:15:05 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $209.22 -1.70% Link ... 4-point box shift above $200.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:14:04 PM

14045 is getting some selling. All in all, I still prefer building a short into weekly pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:13:02 PM

Google (GOOG) $557 +0.87% Link ... 4-point box (via Dorsey/Wright) would have X getting another square today.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:10:49 PM

Opex in all its glory.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:09:41 PM

14039 is a scalp long if VIX stays below 15.54.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 3:04:25 PM

Looks like if I had left the stop at 852.80 we would have been OK.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 3:04:13 PM

YM long setup cancel that order alert ... from 02:43:17.

YM 14,036 ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 3:02:38 PM

It could be a trap, but ADVDEC lines are getting worse, thanks to small caps. NYSE is affected by that.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 2:56:35 PM

PPI tomorrow.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 2:53:54 PM

Stopped at 853.40.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 2:53:52 PM

14039 is indeed a problem. Volume just spiked on this last drop.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 2:49:13 PM

If YM breaks above 14039, next R is at 14045 and 14052.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 2:48:38 PM

VIX weekly R1 is at 15.95.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 2:47:05 PM

YM R1 is at 14021. 61.8% is at the same level, that test on a drop was just made, so if we lose that again, we should get a retest of 14012. 14039 is 76.4% resistance. But it's best to look at NQ, since YM is being moved by one or two stocks. NQ 2049 is a problem for now. If that does not break, YM 14039 could be a problem.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 2:43:50 PM

For my YM signals, just one (1) contract for MM profiles unless specified otherwise.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 2:43:17 PM

YM long setup alert ... with YM 14,035 ... let's look to go long a trade at 14,017. Stop goes 13,995, target 14,065.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 2:43:00 PM

Let's move the stop up to 853.40

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 2:42:22 PM

Following up on my last comment on the NDX (2:10), this is how it might look for a 4th wave to play out this week and then a final 5th wave rally to mark THE top. Possibly a pullback to around 2000 and then a final rally to 2080 (for equality between the 1st and 5th waves). That would get a few more bears to stop shorting this market (which is what they really need--too many shorts holding this up). NDX 120-min chart: Link

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 2:36:42 PM

We made 13 ticks on the first trade then lost 14 ticks on the 2nd so we need to make at least 1 tick to b/e. Of course we need to pay the brokers and it would be nice to have a little left over to pay ourselves as well. Sad how our pockets are the last to see the money.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 2:35:46 PM

PACCAR, Inc. (PCAR) $94.37 +0.63% ...

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 2:34:21 PM

Target on the long from 854.20 is 855.50

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 2:35:42 PM

Lear Shareholders Reject Icahn's $2.9 Billion Offer ... AP Story Link

LEA $36.97 +0.18% ...

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 2:33:53 PM

Here is the $RUT.X's jtHMA charts. 60 minute has turned red now we just need the 120 and the daily to turn red and then we need the 120/60 to turn back green again before we can buy. Link

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 2:29:08 PM

Looks like we survived the noise and we could probably now raise the stop to 852.80. alert

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 2:26:36 PM

ER just made a higher low but is consolidating at daily lows which tells me we are headed lower. In any case we will ride out this trade.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 2:13:02 PM

This is a counter trend move and we need to give it room to breathe.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 2:10:58 PM

No let's put the stop at 852.30 becasue daily lows are at 852.40. alert

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 2:10:10 PM

Long from 854.20 stop 852.40

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 2:10:09 PM

NDX has one of the cleaner looking patterns and the best way for it to finish is to get a 2-3 (maybe 4) day consolidation/pullback for a 4th wave correction (will be ugly to trade) followed by another push to new highs into next week. While it's certainly possible we're seeing THE high get put in, I think it's more likely that we're only going to get a pullback that will set up a good short term trading opportunity on the long side. I'd hold my fire on any long term short positions just yet.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 2:06:39 PM

Long alert 854.20. alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 1:59:52 PM

Next month, you are going to look back and wonder why you did not start building a short position for the rest of the summer.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 1:52:10 PM

QQQQ should retrace to 49.20, NQ to 2020/2025.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/16/2007 1:51:33 PM

Volume increase on the drop. ES could not get past R1. Looks like a 7 year double top is forming on SPX.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 1:46:39 PM

US Energy (USEG) ... Latest Drilling Results and Commencement of Phase II Drill Program At Mother Lode Link

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 1:41:38 PM

ER long at 855.60 alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 1:40:49 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,015:1,953

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 1:40:34 PM

NYSE a/d 1,142:2,043

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 1:40:06 PM

JOINT CHIEFS WEIGHING NEW IRAQ OPTIONS

DJ- U.S. military's top general says the Joint Chiefs of Staff is weighing a range of possible new directions in Iraq, including, if Bush deems it necessary, an even bigger troop build up.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 1:37:20 PM

Sector action getting weaker now ... Oil -2.12%, Nat Gas -1.83%, Homebuilders -1.81%, Nat. Gas -1.85%, Oil Service -1.67%, Retailers -1.07%, Gold Bugs -1.04% ... Computer Tech +0.33%

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 1:33:28 PM

YM 14,033 +0.42% ... up 60 still.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 1:33:08 PM

I think shorts got "sucked in," but it was on Tuesday. Today, they spit it out. Way too much heat taken by aggressive shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 1:30:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 1:17:13 PM

With the games be played the past few days you have to wonder if this little drop is to suck in some shorts to provide the lift needed to tag DOW 14K. It takes a drop below DOW 13930 to say we may have seen the top for at least today.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 1:09:34 PM

Didn't get triggered on the long and that was a very good thing. Avoiding a loser is just as good as triggering a winner.

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 1:09:19 PM

Nice little selling spike. Catching the sleeping bulls per chance? Either that or we're still consolidating before making a stab higher to DOW 14K.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:59:20 PM

VXN.X 16.33 -0.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:59:07 PM

VIX.X 15.29 +0.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:56:01 PM

Swing trade put option alert ... for 1/2 position (1 contract) on Crox, Inc. CROX Sep $42.50 Puts (CQJ-UV) at the offer of $3.30.

CROX $46.69 -0.87% ...

No stop for now, target $41.00.

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 12:49:35 PM

If you're looking for an opportunity to try a short play on YM I think one is coming up shortly. I've got a couple of Fibs lined up at 14085. That's if we rally to there from here--quick jump up to finish the wave count and then start a pullback. I wouldn't give it anymore than a 20-pt stop.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 12:36:59 PM

What I would like to see is ER retrace but not all the way to 860.20. Then make a higher low and then we get triggered on the long on the next swing upward.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 12:35:30 PM

The other thing to consider is the bearish AD line at -483.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 12:34:38 PM

This is a risky trade because the time of day but ER is oversold, the VIX is making new daily lows and the TRIN is still at 0.75. Long at 860.20 alert

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 12:27:46 PM

NQ is testing its PDHs as support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:20:19 PM

PHILIPS 2Q NET SOARS ON STOCK SALE

DJ- Net profit climbs five-fold to $2.17 billion, but falls just short of expectations, as results include $1.68 billion gain from sale of Taiwan Semiconductor shares. Sales fall more-than-expected 4%.

PHG $44.10 -1.01% ...

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 12:19:10 PM

I was thinking my stop should probably be put down at 859.40 but that was taken out as well so it is good I left it at 859.80.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 12:17:08 PM

Long from 861.20 was stopped at 859.80.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:16:54 PM

IBM SIGNS $1.4B CONTRACT WITH ASTRAZENECA

DJ- IBM signs $1.4 billion, seven-year global strategic outsourcing agreement with AstraZeneca, expanding an existing contract. As part of deal, IBM will manage IT services for drug maker across its global organization.

IBM $109.78 +1.08% ... #1-weighted YM/DIA/INDU component.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 12:16:21 PM

The short I had at 858.80 is off the table.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:14:50 PM

MCDONALD'S SAME-STORE SALES RISE 8.4%

DJ- Fast-food giant reports global comparable sales increase 8.4% in June and 7.4% in 2Q. U.S. same-store sales rise 4.2% last month. Excluding items, 2Q EPS expected to be about 71c, above analysts' expectations.

MCD $52.10 +0.36% ... #15-weighted YM/DIA/INDU component.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 12:14:45 PM

This may be the time we get stopped at the full stop. Happens but fortunately not often.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:12:53 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $55.72 +0.32% Link ... $0.50-box to match futures.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:10:20 PM

OPEC DOESN'T PLAN TO ACT TO EASE PRICES

DJ- Group dampens expectations it would act to ease high oil prices with fresh forecasts that suggest consumers will need less of its members' crude than they did this year.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:09:38 PM

MISSION WEST EYES $1.8B DEAL TO GO PRIVATE

DJ- Mission West Properties says it is in negotiations to be bought by an unnamed leading real estate private-equity fund in a deal that values the Silicon Valley real estate investment trust at a slight discount to Friday's closing price.

AMEX:MSW $13.55 -1.02% ...

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 12:09:27 PM

A small consolidation here looks like it will lead to a 5th wave up in today's rally. It could be just enough to ring the bell at DOW 14K and then start a pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:08:14 PM

BLACKSTONE UNIT TO BUY DJO FOR $1.2B

DJ- ReAble Therapeutics, controlled by Blackstone, agrees to buy DJO for $50.25 a share, a 19% premium to Friday's closing price. DJO and ReAble provide complementary products in orthopedic rehabilitation and pain management.

DJO $50.11 +19.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:07:00 PM

EATON NET DOWN 2.8%; BOOSTS '07 GUIDANCE

DJ- Eaton 2Q net slips to $246 million, while earnings per share are flat at $1.64 after a dip in the number of shares outstanding. Revenue climbs 3.9% to $3.25 billion.

ETN $102.86 +4.85% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:05:11 PM

MATTEL NET UP 15% ON INTERNATIONAL GROWTH

DJ- World's largest toy maker earns $43.1 million, or 11c a share, in 2Q due to strong international sales, as well as overall strength from the Fisher-Price and Hot Wheels brands. Sales rise 6.5% to $1.02 billion.

MAT $27.36 +3.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:03:58 PM

NY FED MANUFACTURING INDEX RISES

DJ- Conditions for N.Y.-area manufacturers continue to improve in July, with the New York Fed's manufacturing index increasing further to a reading of 26.46 from an unrevised 25.75 in June. Economists expected a reading of 17.75.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 12:03:35 PM

ER hit a low of 860.40 so glad our stop was not set there.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:03:21 PM

RBS CONSORTIUM OFFERS $98B FOR ABN

DJ- RBS-led group revises the terms of its bid for ABN Amro, but maintains the previous offer value, despite the exclusion of the Dutch bank's LaSalle unit. The consortium raises the cash component to 93% from a previous 70%.

ABN $51.00 +0.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 12:02:09 PM

President Bush: To Call For Intl Meeting To Restart Mideast Peace Talks

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:56:30 AM

Colombia's Jan-June Tax Collection Up 18% To COP31.4 Trillion

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 11:55:06 AM

Once the long from 861.20 breaks 861.50 I will move the stop to 860.40.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 11:49:39 AM

Sorry stop is 859.80 alert

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 11:49:03 AM

Long from 861.20 stop is 860.4

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 11:47:22 AM

ER long at 861.20 alert.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:43:26 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $65.96 -0.10% ... off 7 cents. Session low/high has been $65.77/$66.19.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:39:45 AM

CME $598.54 +2.40% ... probes its WEEKLY R1 ($598.27). WEEKLY R2 ($612.36). WEEKLY Pivot ($576.46).

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:38:08 AM

eBay (EBAY) $34.45 +1.47% ... reverses morning losses after kiss of WEEKLY Pivot ($33.61). WEEKLY R1 ($34.59)

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 11:36:07 AM

The MarketWatch article I posted at11:32 stated that Gold rose Monday morning but I certainly do not see Gold climbing. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:33:55 AM

CROX Link rocketed into its split.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 11:32:50 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose Monday morning, as continuing weakness in the dollar against other major currencies and crude's move past $74 a barrel underpinned demand for the precious metal.

"The U.S. dollar's languishing near critical long term support of 80 on the U.S. Dollar Index, new record Brent crude-oil prices this morning and continuing fears regarding the U.S., some other housing markets and the subprime sector remain supportive of gold," said Mark O'Byrne, director at Gold & Silver Investments Ltd.

Gold for August delivery was last up 70 cents at $668 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $669.50. It closed at $667.30 an ounce, down $1 for the session Friday. The contract gained $12.50, or 1.9%, last week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:32:44 AM

RIMM will be splitting 3:1 on 8/21/07.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:30:41 AM

Buyers still concentrating on narrower, BIG caps aren't they?

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 11:28:23 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures climbed past $74 a barrel Monday, with continuing concern about oil production in the North Sea and recent predictions for growth in oil demand keeping prices at a 10-month high.

The $75 level "seems to be a key resistance level that the market should find its next fight at, although I do believe you'll see the market trading through $80 within the next two months," said Zachary Oxman, a senior trader at Wisdom Financial.

Crude oil for August delivery was last up 32 cents at $74.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded as high as $74.30 during the regular trading session and as high as $74.44 in electronic trading.

The record intraday level for a front-month contract stands at $77.95 from the regular trading session on July 14, 2006. In electronic trade, it climbed as high as $78.40 that day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:30:35 AM

Sense/observe aggressive shorts under pressure.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:30:28 AM

Research in Motion (RIMM) $231.06 +1.56% Link ... "Top" of Dorsey/Wright's 10-week trading band at $200

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 11:27:49 AM

Even the SPX should be up about 7 points instead of less than 3 if it were keeping up with the DOW. Today's show is courtesy of the DOW Industrial Average. And a few high flyer stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:26:32 AM

Oh my! ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:25:55 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $139.51 +1.28% Link ... X gets another square at $138.

"Top" of Dorsey/Wright's 10-week trading band now at $140.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 11:25:35 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The chairman of the Federal Reserve is expected to resort to the favorite all-time posture of central bankers everywhere -- cautious optimism -- in his discussion of the outlook for the U.S. economy, inflation and interest rates when he appears before Congress this week, Fed watchers said.

With no need to prepare the market for a shift in policy, it's all but certain Ben Bernanke will stick to the script -- namely, that inflation remains the biggest risk but the central bank is watching economic data closely and will respond accordingly in either direction regarding rate policy if necessary.

Bernanke will present the Fed's latest economic forecast to congressional committees in a pair of appearances on Wednesday and Thursday "I think he's going to be cautiously optimistic.

He doesn't want to say something that is going to cause the market to react violently and he doesn't want to create a bubble of any sort," said Daniel Laufenberg, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial in Minneapolis.

"He's going to be very careful about how he addresses issues and he will offer reasonably vague descriptions of U.S. economic activity," agreed John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's in New York.

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 11:24:39 AM

You can see the negative divergence on the 30-min chart of the DOW. Nothing like a little manipulation of a narrow index to get the bulls excited. Just don't hang around long since there's little underneath this rally. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:21:33 AM

Vodafone Denies Rumors To Buy Verizon ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:20:30 AM

IHOP Acquires Applebee's for $1.9 Billion ... AP Story Link

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 11:17:28 AM

Now as long as we do not break to new daily highs I think the short at 858.80 will work out nicely.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:16:53 AM

Sector action mixed. Homebuilders -1.17%, Oil -0.95% and Biotech -0.62%. Cyclicals +0.62%, Transports +0.58% and Computer Technology +0.55%

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 11:13:02 AM

ER just made a low of 859.20 and is now in the process of making a lower low so the short at 858.80 is looking better.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:12:12 AM

XMSR $12.86 +4.63% Link ...

PAYX $43.856 +0.96% Link ...

AMZN $74.11 -1.31% Link ...

Were the three (3) NQ/NDX/QQQQ components giving reversing higher PnF buy signals on Friday.

Dorsey/Wright's NASDAQ-100 Bullish % (BPNDX) still "bull confirmed" (7/12/07) at 79% bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:02:52 AM

NASDAQ a/d 1,189:1,635

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:02:40 AM

NYSE a/d 1,294:1,714

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 11:02:05 AM

Asian Markets: at this Link

Nikkei-225 close in observance of Marine Day.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 11:01:39 AM

If we get triggered short at 858.80 the stop will be 860.20.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:55:58 AM

YM and NQ have both broken their PDHs. ES has tagged its PDH and ER is not anywhere near its.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:51:30 AM

Just below WEEKLY and MONTHLY Pivots.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:52:15 AM

We are now overbot so lets try a short at 858.80. alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:50:56 AM

VIX.X 15.47 +2.11% ... up and running now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:50:04 AM

Agree entirely Jane.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:47:57 AM

Dow 30 Components at this Link ... Breadth positive at 22:8.

Alcoa (AA) moves to #20 most heavily weighted.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:45:03 AM

WE could have taken more on that trade but I have found it is NEVER good to get too greedy and take the little chunks out of the middle.

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 10:43:47 AM

This is the 3rd day in a row that the major indices have been in the green (strongly so on Thursday obviously) and yet the a-d line is negative, and TICK and breadth readings have been running negative. This is a very narrow breadth rally and looks more designed to get the shorts to cover and hit psychologically important levels. But it increases my feeling that it's being built on the fluffy stuff without any good foundation underneath it. It can continue but the longer it continues like this the more dangerous it becomes.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:43:41 AM

Target hit.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:42:30 AM

WE are now OB

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:41:51 AM

So move your stop to b/e if you want but I will leave mine at 858.40

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:41:21 AM

Days like this are tough because you don't want to lose anything once you move to within 2 ticks of target yet you need the breathing room.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:40:28 AM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 13,960 Link

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:40:20 AM

High so far 859.80 2 ticks shy of our target.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:39:34 AM

Stop now at 858.4

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:39:25 AM

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) $63.72 +0.45% ...

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:38:54 AM

Once above 859.50 move the stop to 858.40 and 3 ticks at risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:38:47 AM

Boeing (BA) $101.58 -0.29% ... did get a trade at $102 on Friday.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:37:49 AM

Stop now to 857.80

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:37:08 AM

AD line is below 0 at -433 but the AD volume has inched up above 0.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:35:47 AM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 13,953.42 +0.33% Link ... X gets another square.

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 10:35:08 AM

Bulls can smell DOW 14K now. There may be no holding them back.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:34:24 AM

Once ER breaks above 859.00 I will move the stop to 857.80.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:33:30 AM

Of course your target is 858.70 + 1.3 = 860.00

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:31:52 AM

You need patience this morning. ER is not moving in any direction with conviction.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:31:01 AM

Will move the stop once we get into profit.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:30:31 AM

Long ER at 858.70 stop is 857.40

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:30:01 AM

I see a long trade in Crude if/when it retraces back to its magenta 20EMA. Of course I will need the daily jtHMA to be red as well and then the 120/60 to turn back green. Asking alot here. Link

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:25:04 AM

Dang glad I put the long at 858.70 instead of 858.60 like I usually do.

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 10:23:36 AM

The short term pattern on CME does suggest the possibility for another push higher though, maybe tag the century mark at 600.

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 10:22:52 AM

CME may have just done an over-throw above its broken uptrend line from April 2005. The negative divergence at the new highs (on the shorter term charts) suggests topping rather than a breakout today. Nice stop run basically is what it looks like. Link

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:22:01 AM

I see an ER long at 858.70. alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:20:06 AM

On Friday, 80 stocks achieved new 52-week highs for the SPX. Zero (O) achieved new 52-week lows.

Close to 5/31/07 85:1 comparison.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:15:57 AM

YM 14,008 +0.25% ...

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 10:14:21 AM

The way the DOW is chopping higher now it's looking like a pretty clear ending pattern with supporting negative divergences. I'd be looking to short this for at least a pullback today.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:13:08 AM

This has not been a fun morning to trade so far. I will probably straighten out later but for now it is hard.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:06:41 AM

NASDAQ a/d 1,032:1,672

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:06:33 AM

Still no VIX. TRIN is still at bullish 0.75 but climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:06:24 AM

NYSE a/d 1,202:1,876

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:05:49 AM

SPY $154.92 +0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:05:17 AM

SPY July $156 Call most active at CBOE (6,066) with Up/DnTick 751:0. Dec08 155 Put #2 (1,250) no Up/DnTick measure.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 10:04:12 AM

I see an ER short at 856.40 alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:03:37 AM

SPX's CBOE most active is SPX Sep 1,500 Put (455), but no Up/DnTick measure.

July 1,550 Call (150) with 50 UpTick.

Might be put seller, call buyer. VIX.X probably down? Will check SPY.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 10:01:58 AM

I don't either Jane.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 9:58:53 AM

Dow to new daily, yearly, all time highs. I don't expect follow through on those highs.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 9:58:42 AM

Looking for support at this week's WEEKLY Pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 9:55:31 AM

Last 3 Weekly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 9:51:24 AM

I do not have a VIX this morn.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 9:49:26 AM

Swing trade long raise bullish target alert! ... for the CME Group (CME) $596.50 +2.05% ... to $640 (from $620).

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 9:47:31 AM

CME Group (CME) 598.00 +2.30% ... notable new 52-weeker at the big board.

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 9:44:46 AM

AD line started out very bearish at -793 but has "improved" to -660. TRIN is a very bullish 0.66 so expect a quick move upwards.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 9:43:54 AM

CME Group (CME) $592.99 +1.45% ... "hot" early.

Jeff Bailey : 7/16/2007 9:36:28 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 9:28:40 AM

Not much going on with the DAX either, the overnight session was just a continuation of Friday's sideways move.

Crude is hanging on to its gains.

Gold and the US$ are not giving me any clues as to direction. Link

Jane Fox : 7/16/2007 9:15:39 AM

Good morning everyone. Hope you all had a wonderful summer weekend. After Friday's historic moves the markets moved mostly sideways during the overnight session. I don't suspect we will see much of a follow through today and if we do see higher highs they will be sold. I'm not looking for a bearish day but a "digestion" day, a day where the bulls need to sit back and digest the bite they took out of the bears last week. Link

Keene Little : 7/16/2007 9:03:07 AM

Equity futures are pretty much in the middle of their overnight range. Nothing much telling us which way the market will head this morning. But as of Friday it looks ready for a pullback. We'll just have to see if the bulls agree.

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