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Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:15:05 AM

Swing trade put establish stop alert! for the three (3) Financial Select SPDRs XLF Aug $37 Puts (XLF-TK) at $37.20 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:53:36 AM

Bear Stearns (BSC) $139.91 Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:43:49 AM

Bear Says Troubled Funds Have "Very Little Value"

Reuters Story Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 11:42:39 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

I had posted the following charts on SPX at the end of Tuesday's trading day. I have no idea if we'll see selling follow tonight's hard down in futures since I've seen too many of these post-earnings depressed futures gets turned immediately around the following morning.

Here are a couple of SPX charts pointing to the possibility that we'll see 1563-1570 as the potential end of its rally (assuming it continues a little higher from here). First the 60-min chart showing a small sideways triangle for the 4th wave of the leg up from June 27th: Link If we get a leg up out of this triangle that goes the distance of the widest part of the triangle (projected from the top of the triangle) that gives us about 1562.80.

That's not much above the projection for equality between the 1st and 5th waves in the rally from March, which is at 1557.89: Link And what's amazing is that it's right on top of the projection on the weekly chart that shows two equal legs up from October 2002 at 1562.80. It would be a picture perfect ending to the rally. The upside potential on the 60-min chart is to about 1570 to hit the trend line along the highs since the end of June.

Now we'll have to see what the morning's price action brings us.

OI Technical Staff : 7/17/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 6:40:33 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 6:18:08 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 6:04:41 PM

Of course with futures down as hard as they our after hours here, it's not looking like any bounce tomorrow. But we've seen this time and again--futures down overnight and then rally the next morning.

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 5:56:41 PM

Here are a couple of SPX charts pointing to the possibility that we'll see 1563-1570 as the potential end of its rally (assuming it continues a little higher from here). First the 60-min chart showing a small sideways triangle for the 4th wave of the leg up from June 27th: Link If we get a leg up out of this triangle that goes the distance of the widest part of the triangle (projected from the top of the triangle) that gives us about 1562.80.

That's not much above the projection for equality between the 1st and 5th waves in the rally from March, which is at 1557.89: Link And what's amazing is that it's right on top of the projection on the weekly chart that shows two equal legs up from October 2002 at 1562.80. It would be a picture perfect ending to the rally. The upside potential on the 60-min chart is to about 1570 to hit the trend line along the highs since the end of June.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 4:43:25 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $212.29 +2.05% Link ... $212 extended. "The GOOG of China" as they say.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 4:41:24 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $30.78 +2.49% Link ... $30.54 extended. Still some "search" flavor.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 4:39:36 PM

Google (GOOG) $555.00 +0.36% Link ... $553 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 4:37:34 PM

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $27.53 +3.10% Link ... marked lower at $27.00 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 4:24:07 PM

Intel (INTC) $26.33 +1.46% ... marked lower at $25.13 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 4:11:49 PM

BAC Earnings Preview ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 4:07:03 PM

Mr. Russell ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 4:06:33 PM

Jane "MR" (mr07u) is the QCharts' symbol for the russell futures.

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 4:03:12 PM

Yep, they parked the DOW on the uptrend line. Break it and she falls but there's still the possibility for another leg higher within the expanding triangle. We'll know early tomorrow. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 4:01:28 PM

Looks like USEG implemented some of its stock buyback program today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:56:10 PM

My 03:51:25 should read ... from 1,555 ... "fat fingered" it.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:54:41 PM

Jeff what is the MR to which you referred in your 3:53 post.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:53:57 PM

Looks like you had a good one as well.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:53:22 PM

Tks Jeff.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:53:20 PM

Good er/mr trade Jane!

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:52:06 PM

SPX 1,549.61

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:51:50 PM

VIX 15.56

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:51:25 PM

Covering an es short from 1,565 here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:48:52 PM

Brazil's Real Closes At Fresh 7-year High of BRL1.8605

DJ- The Brazilian real closed at a new seven-year high Tuesday on continued heavy inflows of dollars from foreign investors.

The real closed at BRL1.8605, stronger than Monday's close of BRL1.8700. Tuesday's close was the strongest level for the Brazilian currency since 2000.

Investors are attracted by a booming stock exchange and high returns on fixed-income investments. Brazil's benchmark Ibovespa stock index has posted 30 record highs so far in 2007. Meanwhile, Brazil's Selic base interest rate continues at a towering 12.0%.

Brazil's central bank is due to review the Selic rate Wednesday night. The bank is widely expected to cut the rate by 50 basis points. However, the pace of cuts is likely to slow down toward the end of the year.

According to analysts, the Selic rate will remain above 10% well into 2008. Such a rate will continue to attract foreign investors, analysts said.

Nor is Brazil's government likely to change the rules of the game for the foreign exchange market. In comments to reporters Tuesday, Finance Minister Guido Mantega specifically ruled out any changes in the country's floating-rate foreign exchange mechanism.

On credit markets, investors showed they are increasingly convinced the central bank will cut the Selic rate Wednesday and then maintain a conservative pace of more cuts going forward.

On the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange, the most actively trading interest rate futures contract, that of January 2010, closed at 10.59%, down from 10.87% on Monday. Among near-month contracts, the October 2007 contract closed at 11.32%, down from 11.58% on Monday.

Contracts on the exchange represent expectations for annualized interest rates at future dates.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:46:45 PM

Trade #1 long from 859.20 exited at 860.50 after just about stopping us - this was our windshield trade.

Trade #2 long from 858.60 was stopped at 857.8 for 8 tick loss

Trade #3 short from 857.80 exited at 856.50

18 ticks today.

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 3:46:10 PM

On the DOW watch the uptrend line from yesterday--if it breaks then the high for now is in. The reason I'm watching the DOW is because it's more bullish. When it breaks down the others will probably be as well. DOW is getting close to testing the trend line now (probably get parked on for the close).

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2007 3:45:39 PM

Sell those rallies.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:43:38 PM

Hit target! Love those kind of trades.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:44:19 PM

NDX 2,043.65 ... gett'n close to that 2,050 open interest. See 07/09/2007 MM Link (about 05:49 PM on)

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:42:52 PM

Oh come on give me that last tick!

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:41:52 PM

Got to within 2 ticks of profit so not willing to leave any on the table now.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:41:24 PM

STop to b/e

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:41:13 PM

Stop to 858.80.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:40:58 PM

AD volume to new daily lows - wow!

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:38:45 PM

Once we get past 857.00 move the stop to 858.80.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:36:33 PM

Let's move the stop to 859.20

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:36:18 PM

NQ ... oh the pain for aggressive shorts from last week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:35:57 PM

QQQQ $50.24 +0.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:35:32 PM

MSFT $30.80 +2.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:35:13 PM

Just looking at my Watch List. Didn't see AMAT this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:34:46 PM

I like that trade Jane ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:34:16 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $21.98 +6.54% ... strong day for chips.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:33:53 PM

Short at 857.80 alert

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:33:40 PM

If triggered short at 857.80 the stop will be 859.60.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:30:03 PM

CME's daily interval bar chart at this Link

Some "old" trend observations.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:29:54 PM

So far saved by 1 tick. :)

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:27:23 PM

That dip got to 857.90 and we were not triggered short. alert

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:26:59 PM

Mid cap stocks are also still within their trading range. Link

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:25:48 PM

Let's try one more trade. ER short at 857.80 alert

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:22:39 PM

NAZ Composite has a very clear resistance turned support but has already retested it (July 11th low) so it doesn't need to retest. Link

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:20:49 PM

I'm not so sure SPX's resistance at 1540 has turned into support though. I suspect the SPX will need to return back to the trading range and try and break that resistance again. In any case the swing low made on July 11th should hold and the SPX will make a higher low. It's just that higher low will probably be below 1540. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:17:13 PM

CME's 15-minute interval chart with my MONTHLY Pivot retracement and QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels. Also some trend observations that BULLS and BEARS are monitoring. Link

Some technicians actually believe that when a trend (up, or down) is broken, the extension of the trend becomes (resistance, or support).

In baseball, some hitters are "called out" on the third strike.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 3:16:56 PM

I fully expect the resistance the DOW found at 13670-13690 has turned to support and that you will have a very good place to get long when/if it returns to test that resistance turned support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 3:00:33 PM

CME's 4-point box chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 2:57:59 PM

Interesting action again today for the CME that BULLS and BEARS are monitoring.

CME 583.88 -0.41% ... session low has been 580.00 on the button.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 2:52:56 PM

02:48 PM Market Watch found at this Link ... Ugh! Financials building gains too!

And the 12:48 Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 2:40:42 PM

Anyway ... a few educational tidbits for those new to day trading.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 2:39:03 PM

Then of course, a trader has in mind where the Open Interest is for BOTH the SPY and SPX options montages.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 2:36:03 PM

VIX.X 15.38 -1.34% ... its DAILY S1 is 15.29. Oh... DAILY R1 overlaps MONTHLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 2:34:48 PM

DOW 14030-14040 looks like a potential topping zone. If it goes right on up and through that zone then don't be looking for a short play since it could be an accelerated move higher.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 2:34:41 PM

SPX 1,554.75 +5.23 points now. Testing DAILY R1 again.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 2:33:40 PM

While the large caps are all charging to new yearly highs, all time highs there are leaving the small caps behind. $RUT.x has not been able to break out of its trading range from 820 to 855. Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 2:33:18 PM

The DOW has built a little ascending wedge from yesterday's low so a final thrust higher (not much) followed by a quick turn back down should mark the high and I'd try a short against the high. Could be very soon here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 2:31:52 PM

SPX 15-minute interval chart with My MONTHLY Pivot retracement (PINK) and QCharts' weekly pivot levels Link

Remember Tuesday? Remember Wednesday (aggressive short)? and Thursday?

IF VIX were to get above WEEKLY Pivot, THEN maybe SPX vulnerable to its WEEKLY Pivot. VIX.X has to see enough CALL SELLING/PUT BUYING outnumbering CALL BUYING/PUT SELLING to get above an OVERLAPPING WEEKLY/MONTHLY though.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 2:18:09 PM

Don't forget! This is Option Expiration week!

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 2:17:45 PM

VIX 15.47 -0.76% ... 15-minute interval chart with my MONTHLY (PINK) and QChart's WEEKLY Pivot Levels Link

15-minute inerval used so that I can show a couple of weeks, and how VIX does indeed show some influence at levels.

Remember last Tuesday? Remember last Wednesday and Thursday?

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 2:08:15 PM

The DOW is still within its bearish expanding triangle formation shown earlier. And the beaucoup negative divergences say be cautious about the long side here. When it drops out of this pattern it could go quickly. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:50:34 PM

SPY $155.17 +0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:50:19 PM

SPX 1,552.21 +0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:50:04 PM

VIX.X 15.57 -0.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:31:24 PM

MM Trade Blotter History ... on 5/1/07 went long one (1) of the Toll Bros. Sep $30 Call (TOL-IF) at $2.65. Exited on 6/1/07 at the bid of $1.85.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:28:07 PM

CME's Feb/May'08 Regional Housing Futures Table at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:24:13 PM

CME's Aug07 Regional Housing Futures Table Link

CME's Nov07 Regional Housing Futures Table Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 1:23:33 PM

We've got a 3-wave pullback for the DOW and now pressing back up again. This will either consolidate further at/near this level and then press higher, or it will press higher directly from here. Still too early to short but don't like the upside potential vs. downside risk. Flat is a good position for now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:16:09 PM

Make it 5 Dow components. UTX bmo. Consensus $1.14/share.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:13:59 PM

Tomorrow's partial earnings calendar at this Link

4 Dow components. 1 MM profile. 1 Large bond house.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 1:10:00 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - With interest rates moving higher, a glut of homes sitting unsold, and the problems in the subprime mortgage market worsening, U.S. home builders' confidence in the housing market plunged further in July, according to a monthly survey released by the National Association of Home Builders.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index dropped four points to 24 in July, the lowest since the 20 recorded in January 1991 and the third lowest reading in the 22-year history of the survey.

The index was at 39 a year ago and peaked at 72 in June 2005, when nearly three-fourths of builders were upbeat about the market.

The decline in the home builders' index mirrors the massive slump in home building and home sales seen in the past two years. Starts of single-family homes are down 36% from the peak, while sales are down 20%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:01:57 PM

Seeing 4 pages of upcoming major company earnings reports ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 1:00:13 PM

MM Profile History ... Back on 12/14/06 went LONG volatility with three (3) of the VIX-BV (Feb $12.50 Calls) at $1.75. They were $0.00 at expiration.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2007 2:00:48 PM

VIX is at 100% of range today which usually means they will start selling rallies. A reversal would occur at 15.95. This is purely day trade. As for financials, they are a sell on strength with rising rates, unless CPI tomorrow is benign.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:54:58 PM

VIX.X Link ... 0.50-box size. Would take a measure of 14.50 to generate a "sell signal."

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 12:54:24 PM

While I see the potential for the DOW to push back up to another high, looking at the SPX chart gives me the opposite impression. Right now it looks like SPX is fixin' to head south. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:50:25 PM

12:48 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:46:31 PM

VIX.X 15.73 +0.89% ... still below WEEKLY and MONTHLY Pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:45:39 PM

SPY 154.81 -0.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:45:23 PM

SPX 1,549.14 -0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:43:35 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $74.70 -1.80% ... Updated PnF chart at this Link ... With Crack Spread deteriorating further, I'd have to think some bulls cutting back positions.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2007 12:39:03 PM

Weekly pivot is 15.95.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2007 12:39:23 PM

Finally a sell signal from the VIX.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:33:04 PM

XLF updated bar chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:28:30 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $74.70 -1.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:28:02 PM

DJ- NYMEX Crude Falls Below $74/Bbl ... follows Gasoline, Brent

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:10:10 PM

Financial Select SPDRs (XLF) $36.73 +0.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 12:07:46 PM

Dow Dog 2007 (updated) Link

Dow Dogs at 12/29/06 Link

12/29/06 Market Monitor Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2007 11:57:28 AM

Big reversal for MER.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2007 11:57:21 AM

Financials are a sell on strenght.

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 11:55:12 AM

Still consolidating and still waiting to see if we get DOW 14038. Either that or a break below 13940. Could go either way from here and I don't like the setup yet. But I'll look to short a top (hopefully a top) or a bounce after a breakdown. I think we're too close to a high to be playing the long side (famous last words).

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:43:26 AM

WFC's loan generation looks positive.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:42:35 AM

Wells Fargo's Earnings Press Release Link

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:34:15 AM

Nope not a bear flag and stopped at 858.60

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:33:59 AM

This could be a bear flag. Hoping it is a bear flag :)

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:32:16 AM

That little drop got us oversold so I am not holding my breath on this short.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:31:48 AM

Oh the pain ....

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:31:08 AM

YM ... 14,067 ... session high has been 14,086.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:28:54 AM

RATE FUTURES PRICES PARE YESTERDAY'S GAINS AFTER FRESH DATA

DJ- U.S. interest rate futures prices pare the previous day's gains, though they still price in expectations for the Fed to cut its benchmark rate next year following a stronger-than-expected increase in June core producer prices.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:27:54 AM

Short from 857.80 has a stop at 858.60 and a target at 856.50. alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:26:41 AM

KEYCORP 2Q NET CLIMBS 11%

DJ- Cleveland-based bank earns $334 million, or 84c a share, as $90 million of principal investment gains helps offset "challenging interest rate environment." KeyCorp earns 85c from continuing operations, topping estimates of 70c.

KEY $36.49 +3.96% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:25:32 AM

FOREIGN ACQUISITION OF US SECURITIES CLIMBS

DJ- Net foreign acquisition of long-maturity U.S. securities is $112.6 billion in May, up from $72.7 billion in April, as purchases of corporate bonds and equities jump, according the monthly Treasury International Capital report.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:24:37 AM

WELLS FARGO NET RISES, PEERS STRUGGLE

DJ- Wells Fargo posts 9% increase in 2Q net income to $2.28 billion, or 67c a share, matching expectations, as revenue rises 13% to $9.89 billion. U.S. Bancorp's net falls 3.7% and Regions reports sharp deterioration in credit quality.

WFC $35.73 +0.78% ...

USB $32.90 -0.93% ...

RF $33.69 -1.52% ...

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:23:50 AM

Once we break 857 the stop will go to 858.20 but we need to break 857 first.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:22:37 AM

Stop to 858.6

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:22:15 AM

Stop to 859.20

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:21:03 AM

COCA-COLA NET UP 1%; STRONG INTERNATIONAL SALES

DJ- Beverage giant earns $1.85 billion, or 80c a share, amid charges and a year-earlier gain, as strong international growth continues. Revenue rises 19% to $7.73 billion, helped by a weaker dollar.

KO $53.41 -0.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:19:48 AM

JOHNSON & JOHNSON 2Q NET CLIMBS 9%

DJ- Health-care-products maker posts net income of $3.08 billion, or $1.05 a share, as sales jump 13% to $15.1 billion. Wall Street expected EPS of $1 on revenue of $15.1 billion. Firm backs its full-year view, minus research and development charges.

JNJ $62.70 -1.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:18:37 AM

MERRILL LYNCH PROFIT RISES 31%, LED BY TRADING

DJ- Brokerage earns $2.14 billion, or, $2.24 a share, as revenue rises 19% to $9.73 billion, as trading, investment banking and wealth management remain strong. Analysts expected earning of $2.02 a share on revenue of $9.25 billion. Merrill's investment banking revenue rises 26% to $1.54 billion.

MER $86.95 -0.50% ...

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:16:53 AM

Now short at 857.80. stop is 859.60

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:16:08 AM

Short at 857.80 alert

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:11:54 AM

Don't you just love been the windshield?

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:10:38 AM

And target hit

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:10:31 AM

That was close - whew!

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:07:58 AM

It looks like we may be the windshield today.

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 11:03:45 AM

Triple top on the DOW on the 5-min chart or consolidation under resistance? My guess right now is consolidation before pressing higher.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:02:41 AM

Hit a low of 858.00 so still long.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 11:02:04 AM

NQ is still not able to break its PDHs but surely trying.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 11:01:51 AM

Dow Industrials 14,000! ... Your Dow 30 Link

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:59:50 AM

YM breaks to new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:58:29 AM

Consolidation at daily highs usually means higher highs so we just have to plug our nose and hope we can stay in the long until then.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:54:33 AM

Another test of daily highs that does not break and I will.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:54:15 AM

I don't like this price movement and I am tempted to raise my stop to 858.30 but I will keep it at 857.80 for now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 10:52:18 AM

Asian Markets: finished mixed. Shanghai ($SSEC) Link ... session High/Low was 3,919/3,768. No chart activity.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:49:35 AM

Once it breaks it could be quick so make sure you have your orders in.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:48:53 AM

ER tags daily highs again and cannot break - yet.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:46:30 AM

NQ is having a hard time breaking its PDH here. Link

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:43:51 AM

Once ER was not able to break that daily high I became concerned but I will stay long until I get proved wrong.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 10:39:35 AM

Intel (INTC) $26.23 +1.07% ... overtakes Pfizer (PFE) in #29 spot.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:39:09 AM

I see the VIX climbing now and that is not the direction you want the VIX to go if long.

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 10:38:55 AM

Another look at the DOW 30-min chart shows a wave count that calls the current move up today as the 5th wave in the leg up from July 11th. A Fib projection for equality between the 1st and 5th waves at 14038 would be a good spot to test the short side if it gets there and looks like it will stall. A break of yesterday's low at 13923 would confirm we've seen the high for now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 10:38:38 AM

American Express (AXP) $64.59 +4.36% ... "hot early" jumps to #9 weighting in Dow.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:37:46 AM

ER usually breaks daily highs easily so this is a little disconcerting.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 10:37:16 AM

"Bad ticks" to DIA $140.85 earlier this morning.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:37:08 AM

ER tags daily highs at 859.70.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:35:57 AM

Once we break 860 I will put the stop at 858.3

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:34:46 AM

AD volume to new daily highs but VIX is just hovering at daily lows. TRIN at 0.89.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 10:32:02 AM

Olin Corp. (OLN) $22.54 +2.17% ... notable 52-weeker at the big board.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:27:52 AM

Be aware daily highs at 859.70.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:27:31 AM

Stop on the long from 859.2 is 857.80 alert

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:26:44 AM

I see and ER long at 859.20. alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 10:23:24 AM

US: Ready To Hold New Talks With Iran On Iraq Situation

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2007 10:20:11 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:13:36 AM

DOW breaks 14000

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:08:43 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Output at the nation's factories, mines and utilities rebounded in June, another sign that the factory sector had recovered from six months of weakness.

U.S. industrial production rose 0.5% last month after falling a revised 0.1% in May, the Federal Reserve reported Tuesday.

Capacity utilization rose to 81.7% in June, the highest level since last October, from a revised 81.4% in the previous month.

Economists had been looking for June's production to rise 0.6%, according to a survey by economists sponsored by MarketWatch.

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 10:07:43 AM

DOW rang the bell but I think it'll press a little higher again, maybe 14010-14020, before potentially starting a larger correction of the leg up from last week's low. A drop below 13940 is needed to say we've seen the high for a few days.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:03:46 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose sharply Tuesday and briefly traded above $75 a barrel, as bullish sentiment dominated the market.

Crude oil for August delivery was last up 85 cents, or 1.1%, at $75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract hit an intraday high of $75.05 a barrel in electronic trading, its highest level since August 31, 2006.

"You're seeing crude moving higher on follow through action from yesterday," said Zachary Oxman, senior trader at Wisdom Financial, in emailed comments. "Large funds and speculators continue to get long in this market and crude is continuing its strong, technically sound rally."

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 10:02:22 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Monthly capital flows to the U.S. including short-term securities like Treasury bills rose to $105.9 billion in May, up from a revised $97.8 billion in April, the Treasury Department reported Tuesday.

Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities, meanwhile, climbed to $163.5 billion from $97.4 billion, the highest amount since August 2006.

Private foreign investors bought $152 billion in securities, making up most of the increase in net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities.

Private purchases of Treasury bonds and notes rebounded in May, with investors buying $26.2 billion in bonds and notes. Private investors also more than doubled their purchases of corporate bonds, buying $68.6 billion in corporate debt versus the $30.6 billion bought in April.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 9:58:25 AM

Crude hit a high of $75.00 today.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 9:54:40 AM

DOW high now 13997, 13998

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 9:46:48 AM

The DOW will surely ring the bell at this rate. But the continued negative divergences as it presses higher is not the recipe for a breakout move. Link

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 9:41:09 AM

DOW hits a high of 13990.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 9:38:25 AM

AD line climbing to +436 and AD volume climbing as well. The bulls are getting stronger.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 9:36:30 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The chairman of the Federal Reserve is expected to resort to the favorite all-time posture of central bankers everywhere -- cautious optimism -- in his discussion of the outlook for the U.S. economy, inflation and interest rates when he appears before Congress this week, Fed watchers said.

With no need to prepare the market for a shift in policy, it's all but certain Ben Bernanke will stick to the script -- namely, that inflation remains the biggest risk but the central bank is watching economic data closely and will respond accordingly in either direction regarding rate policy if necessary.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 9:34:40 AM

Crude pushing to new yearly highs again. Link

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 9:32:50 AM

AD line is an anemic +128

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 9:20:09 AM

ES and YM usually trade lock in step but they became disconnected yesterday when ES retraced its entire daily move to make new daily lows at 2:00 and YM only retraced about 50% of its daily move. Overnight you can see they did get back in sync but the dip at 5:30 - 6:00 EDT broke ES's PDLs whereas YM did not break its PDL. Link

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 9:10:35 AM

Dateline WSJ - Merrill Lynch & Co.'s second-quarter net income climbed 31% amid continued strength across its operations as trading, investment banking and wealth management remain strong.

The New York securities firm posted net income of $2.14 billion, or $2.24 a share, compared with $1.63 billion, or $1.63 a share, a year earlier. Revenue jumped 19% to $9.73 billion. The mean estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were for earnings of $2.02 a share on revenue of $9.25 billion.

"We delivered another strong quarter in a volatile and, at times, hostile market environment," said Chairman and Chief Executive Stan O'Neal in a statement. "These results reflect our revenue diversification, which makes possible strong performance despite uneven market conditions."

Shares of Merrill closed Monday at $87.39. The stock rose to $88.63 in premarket trading.

Revenue from the firm's global-markets and investment-banking, or GMI, operations climbed 36% to $6.19 billion as pretax earnings surged 43% to $2.1 billion. International operations, which makes up 61% of the unit's revenue, continued to grow "significantly faster" than the U.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2007 9:06:11 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- U.S. wholesale prices fell in June on lower energy prices, but prices rose more than expected outside of the volatile food and energy sectors.

The producer price index for finished goods fell 0.2% in June, the Labor Department said Tuesday. This drop, the first since January, followed an unrevised 0.9% gain in May.

But the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3% after rising 0.2% in May. This was the biggest one-month rise since February, the Labor Department said.

June's numbers were unexpected on Wall Street, where economists had expected both the headline and core indexes to grow slightly. The median forecast of 24 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires called for an increase of 0.1% in the PPI and 0.2% in the core. In the 12 months through June, wholesale prices rose 3.3%. In contrast, the core PPI was up just 1.8% from a year ago.

The government releases June consumer price figures on Wednesday. Economists expect it to show a modest increase, tempered by retreating energy prices and muted price pressures outside the volatile food and energy sectors.

Financial markets also are looking to upcoming testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke for an assessment of the current monetary policy outlook.

Keene Little : 7/17/2007 8:46:00 AM

Equity futures are flat and relatively close to the middle of their overnight range. There's not a whole lot to go on to help us figure out the initial direction this morning. Until I see evidence to the contrary I'm expecting a choppy whipsaw kind of week (exacerbated by opex) and therefore be especially choosy in your trade setups.

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