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Keene Little : 7/18/2007 10:14:57 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

I still favor the upside for the rally so that we get a cleaner finish in terms of an EW count. I show the possibility for the decline to continue (a break of Wednesday's lows would suggest we've already topped) but I think we'll either consolidate for a few more days (either sideways or with another relatively small drop) before heading higher, or head higher directly from here.

If we head higher right away then there's a possibility that we'll see a market high by the end of the week. If we consolidate first then we're probably looking at the end of next week or the end of the month to put in a market high. 60-min updates:
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/18/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 7:12:29 PM

1 bone = $1

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 7:11:01 PM

EBAY $33.45

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 7:10:22 PM

IBM up 3 bones at $114.55 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 7:06:05 PM

Trade Blotter of July CLOSED trades as well as updated stops/target for current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 6:54:09 PM

Oh Jimmy C ... don't average down.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 6:44:11 PM

VLO Aug, Sep, Dec Options montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 6:31:42 PM

Mmm, mmm, mmm ... check out the 19.1%. What a "result."

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 6:31:02 PM

Hey! Check it out. Leave your 100% retracement anchored at the 09/25/06 close, but 0% raised to most recent 7/10/07 high close of $77.73.

38.2% is at $66.43.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 6:26:24 PM

What I like to do now is set a QCharts alert at $66.34, with an "alert note" to refer to 7/18/07 post. That way, should VLO trade $66.34, we can come back to today, review some things (like gasoline/crude oil crack spread) and assess the situation.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 6:24:35 PM

Ugh! ... downtick 2,356 vs. uptick 5.

$70 - $3.66 = $66.34.

My target is/was $63.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 6:21:29 PM

Mmm, mmm, mmm ... QCharts showing 3,388 contract traded in the ZPY-XN today. 5,309 all exchanges.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 6:16:58 PM

Swing trade put raise target alert! ... for the two (2) Aluminum Corp. China ACH Nov. $30 Puts (ACH-WF) to $29 from $23.50.

Very glad we went long on 6/14/07.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 5:14:38 PM

Good gravy! ... VXN.X went out 16.77. (see 12:41:17 MM) and on.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 5:09:21 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Both the EBAY underlying long and covered call (XBA-GG) were closed out.

Established stop of $37.20 for the three (3) XLF-TK.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:40:01 PM

Two (2) days until Friday's equity option expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:35:09 PM

IF still NAKED XBA-GG and didn't like what you saw at $35.45, then do something now at $34.18.

See today's MM.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:32:53 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:24:49 PM

Nuveen Ivestments (JNC) ... per yesteray's MM Monitor ... will release Q2 on Thursday, July 26th.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:22:45 PM

eBay (EBAY) ... Earnings Press Release this evening Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:21:35 PM

Intl. Business Machines (IBM) ... Earnings Press Release this evening Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:20:28 PM

Pfizer (PFE) ... Earnings Press Release from this morning Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:18:40 PM

United Technologies (UTX) ... Earnings Press Release from this morning Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:16:18 PM

Oh my does it!

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:15:50 PM

eBay gets active ... $35.09

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:15:34 PM

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) ... Earnings Press Release from this morning Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:13:58 PM

Altria (MO) ... Earnings Press Release from this morning Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:10:20 PM

Earnings reports hitting the wires ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 4:04:27 PM

eBay (EBAY) $34.05 -0.58% ... goes out 'in the zone' ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:59:22 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,087/1,958

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:58:56 PM

NYSE a/d 1,123/2,121

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 3:56:14 PM

SPX has smoked up through that 1544 Fib level. Next Fib target is 1549.65 where the 2nd leg up today would achieve 162% of the 1st leg up. But before that are Monday's and Tuesday's lows around 1547-1548 (we're there) which could act as resistance now.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 3:39:46 PM

The bulls stepped back up to the plate and are doing some buying. Now watch SPX 1544.37 where today's bounce will achieve two equal legs up. If this is going to lead to another leg down then the bounce could fail there. I wouldn't be surprised if that's where we finish for the day (little pullback and then rally to that level for the close, leaving us guessing about tomorrow). Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:33:05 PM

I'd have to think at least a few NAKED NDX/QQQQ call traders learned a lesson the past 5 trading days.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:28:53 PM

VXN.X 17.44 +2.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:26:36 PM

RISK removed ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:24:53 PM

Swing trade NAKED CALL close out, buy it back alert! ... for the XBA-GG at the offer of $0.60.

EBAY $33.93.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:11:19 PM

49 minutes ... 49 minutes until EBAY cash session close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:09:59 PM

Good gravy! look at QID on 15-minute interval.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:08:05 PM

Hmmm... maybe 200-pd on 15-minute is important to that trader. Check out 7/11/07 low. Remember Wednesday morning? ... Oh the pain...

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 3:07:31 PM

There are two potential wave counts that I'm considering at the moment, obviously one bearish and the other bullish. I've been showing the bullish wave count that calls the current pullback a 4th wave correction and then a final leg higher to finish the rally from June 27th which will finish the rally from March and so on. In other words it could make THE top.

As shown on this SPX 60-min chart, the bullish wave count needs the pullback to stay above today's low and a new leg up needs to start now. Today's little bounce followed by another move lower would give us an impulsive decline from Monday's high and that would indicate there's a good chance the high is already in (dark red wave count) with a trend change to down. Link

Assuming for the moment that the bulls will pull another rabbit out of their hat (should be getting pretty low on rabbits about now), there's a good chance for the final rally leg to top out this week, thus meeting the turn date window of this Thursday through next Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:06:38 PM

03:02:53 post didn't show the $33.80 amount on Level II.

Why $33.80?

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:05:47 PM

ebay ... 15-minute interval with XBA-GG and stock's INET Level II at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 3:02:53 PM

eBay 15-minute interval with XBA-GG and stock's INET Level II Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 2:59:29 PM

Ah ... check out EBAY. 15-minute interval and that 200-pd SMA. That "makes sense."

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 2:57:38 PM

BIG bid on INET at $33.80.

EBAY $33.96

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 2:45:21 PM

EBAY $33.91 -0.99% ... be ready IF it trades WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 2:45:19 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures gained nearly $8 an ounce Wednesday to close at their highest level in six weeks, buoyed by a rally in oil as well as persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Gold's reaction is a "combination of [Federal Reserve Chairman Ben] Bernanke's speech and the initial run in crude oil," said Burt Schlichter, director of trading at New World Trading.

The $670 level for the August gold contract was also an important technical level in the market, so "once that level was broken, the market experienced short covering and technical buying," he said in e-mailed comments.

Meanwhile, the dollar is "embarking on new lows ... which is another driving force," he said.

Gold for August delivery closed up $7.80, or 1.2%, at $673.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a high of $675.30. The contract hasn't closed or traded at levels this high since early June. Other metals prices finished higher as well.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 2:44:39 PM

US $ down and Crude up is a dynamite combination for Gold and why the Gold charts are a lot less reliable

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 2:36:27 PM

The DAX's daily jtHMA has turned red but I am not all that encouraged to take a long here (if it sets up that is) because of the way the daily jtHMA has turned red then green then back red again in a short period of time. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 2:34:34 PM

20,487 contracts have traded (all exchanges) $0.68 to $0.85 in the XBA-GG today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 2:31:42 PM

90-minutes. 90-minutes until the EBAY cash session closes.

eBay (EBAY) $34.10 -0.43% ... XBG-GG $0.70 x $0.75.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 2:27:21 PM

For those of you NEW to the market monitor, today's updated VXN observations seems like "hindsight" observations.

Those that have been followers of my commentary over the years, know it to be VERY repetitive.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 2:25:18 PM

VXN actually up from 7/09/07 benchmark?

Next time you hear/read anything about call/put open interest being bullish/bearish for an index, you'll kow what to do.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 2:22:21 PM

We got a 3-wave bounce off the low and now it's turning back down. Not a good bullish sign. It could easily turn right back up and make a larger 3-wave bounce but so far it's looking corrective to the upside and that should have you and any long positions pulling your stop up tighter.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 2:23:07 PM

Now pretend you've been an institutional market maker the last week. An aggressive bear market maker.

Or ... a computer that had to sell calls to buyers, or sell NAKED puts to aggressive NQ shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 2:20:06 PM

That was then NDX Option Montage (7/09/07) evening, with 7/06/07 open interest. Link

This is now NDX Option Montage with 7/10/07 open interest. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 2:04:05 PM

VXN.X 17.54 now. Here's a 15-minute interval chart (same as yesterday's VIX.X). MONTHLY Pivot retracement (PINK) and QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels (I added a retracement) at this Link

On Monday evening 7/09/07 I reminded traders (especially aggressive shorts) to know where the NDX open interest was at. Gave them the "key" with VXN.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:54:39 PM

QID $41.93

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:49:38 PM

VXN.X 17.52 +3.36% now ... re-testing MONTHLY Pivot (17.51).

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:47:42 PM

As well as Monday evening (7/9/07) NDX.X open interest observations.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:46:39 PM

VIX.X 16.57 +6.01% now ... coming with a VXN.X chart per 12:41:17 post.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 1:46:09 PM

ER is now overbot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:45:58 PM

NASDAQ a/d 838/2138

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:45:42 PM

NYSE a/d 888/2310

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:45:04 PM

Stopping er/mr short

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 1:35:36 PM

SPX did an even better retest of its broken downtrend line. Take a picture of this pattern since it's the kind of setup that can make you money. A developing descending wedge (or in reverse, an ascending wedge) with bullish divergences, a throw-under below the bottom of it and then recover back inside (buy signal #1), then a break out of the wedge (buy signal #2) and then a retest of the broken downtrend line (buy signal #3). Link

It doesn't work like this all the time of course, and in fact a break out of the bottom of these patterns usually accelerates lower. But this is one of the more reliable patterns to trade. Keep your stop at a new daily low until the high at 1540 is exceeded (in case of another retest of the broken downtrend line). This pattern works of course on all time frames and makes for a logical place to put your stop, which is one of the reasons I like it (rather than an arbitrary number).

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 1:35:20 PM

I see a long setting up but it not a reversal off an oversold so you need the trend and the internals on your side for a trade like that. The internals are certainly not so I will not be taking that trade. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 1:22:30 PM

Stopped at 844.30

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:18:03 PM

NASDAQ a/d 729/2240

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 1:17:53 PM

I'm back. The DOW has dropped back down for what should be retest of its broken downtrend line from this morning. Trying a long here against a new daily low is a good play. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:17:50 PM

NYSE a/d 785/2,396

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:17:15 PM

I've lowered my stop from an 850 short entry too. 839.20 and juuuuust above WEEKLY 80.9% 839.00 would be a nice "trend day" target.

Need that WEEKLY S1 to serve resistance now the rest of the session.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:13:31 PM

I like that trade Jane!

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 1:12:00 PM

Short from 842.80 stop is 844.30.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 1:08:50 PM

ER short at 842.80 alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:08:36 PM

The number of days of crude oil supply edges down to 22.7 from last week's 22.9%.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 1:08:25 PM

VIX and AD volume are certainly in sync today but look at the TRIN. Doesn't seem to make much sense. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:07:29 PM

US weekly percent utilization of refinery operable capacity (%) rose to 91.04% from prior week's 90.17%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:06:34 PM

US weekly refinery operable capacity remained unchanged at 17.443 million barrels per day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:05:32 PM

US crude oil inputs into refineries rose by 89,000 barrels per day to 15.65 million barrels per day.

Up 4.18% Vs. month-ago.
Down 0.26% Vs. 2-months.
Up 3.74% Vs. 3-months.
Down 1.61% Vs. year-ago 15.0 million barrels per day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 1:02:22 PM

US weekly gross inputs into refineries rose by 151,000 barrels per day to 15.88 million barrels per day.

Up 3.8% Vs. month-ago.
Down 0.22% Vs. 2-months
Up 3.63% Vs. 3-months

Down 1.74% Vs. year-ago 16.16 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:59:02 PM

Back to demand ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:54:19 PM

NASDAQ a/d 767/2,199

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:54:05 PM

NYSE a/d 815:2,361

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:51:55 PM

Current OPEN MM profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Stopped EBAY long at $34.20. Establish stop $34.64 on now NAKED XBA-GG.

1/2 position ($5,000 for $10k=full) in QID.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 12:50:15 PM

BTW, the DOW is breaking its downtrend line from this morning's high so it's on a buy signal now.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 12:49:45 PM

Stepping away for about 30 minutes.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 12:46:47 PM

We need the RUT's daily jtHMA to turn red before we can start looking for a long swing trade. I will be using IWM for that trade if it sets up. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 12:45:32 PM

I do suspect the DOW's resistance at 13700 will act as support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:41:17 PM

NQ pivot traders that utilize the VXN.X, know where things are.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 12:36:47 PM

And there ER goes a reversal that worked. WIsh I had a crystal ball to tell me when those reversals would start working. In order to have gotten into this long however, you would have had to have traded each and every long reversal and would be hurting right now.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 12:33:57 PM

We might have had the throw-under of the descending wedge for SPX and now recovery back inside the pattern should be a buy signal. A break of its downtrend line should be next. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:31:57 PM

You're getting down the routine aren't you?

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:31:39 PM

VXN.X 18.30 +7.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:30:36 PM

EBAY's DAILY Pivot Levels ... $34.05, $34.14, Piv= $34.31, $34.40, $34.57.

WEEKLY are $31.99, $32.97, Piv= $33.61, $34.59, $35.23.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 12:29:12 PM

As I suspected, SPX's resistance at 1540 did not turn into support. However, I do suspect the 50EMA will be that support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:26:22 PM

Swing trade now NAKED Call estabilish stop alert! for the eBay EBAY July $35 Call (XBA-GG) ... Close out before today's close, or intra-day should stock trade $34.65.

EBAY $34.29 +0.11% ... XBA-GG are $0.75 x $0.80.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 12:24:00 PM

WE are oversold again and so far the reversals have not worked out so I will not be taking anymore for now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:23:48 PM

Bullish swing trade long stopped alert! for the 1/3 position in shares of eBay (EBAY) at the bid of $34.20.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:22:48 PM

On the demand side of things ...

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 12:21:30 PM

For the DOW, a 38% retracement of the big rally leg up from July 11th is at 13813 so about 20 points lower.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 12:21:05 PM

The bears are proving to be formidable opponents today. Link

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 12:18:49 PM

Even the lowly RUT, which has been stuck in a rut as compared to its larger cap brethren, is building some bullish divergences on its 5 and 10-min charts this morning. It's looking like the market is getting ready to at least push back up this afternoon. It's possible we're putting in the lows for opex week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:16:15 PM

US weekly kerosene-type jet fuel stockpiles fell by 204,000 barrels to 40.9 million barrels. Up 3.02% from year-ago 39.7 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:13:26 PM

Dec. Heating Oil (ho07z) $2.18 +2.83% ... See 6/18/07 Market Wrap Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:11:11 PM

US weekly heating oil stockpiles fell by 711,000 barrels to 31.6 million barrels. Down 41.02% from year-ago 53.5 million.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 12:07:26 PM

US weekly ultra low sulfer diesel (0-15 ppm sulfer) stockpiles rose by 620,000 barrles to 67.5 million barrels. New product last summer, so year-ago not yet comparable.

Down 1.54% Vs. month-ago
Up 8.33% Vs. 2-months
Up 13.55% Vs. 3-months.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 12:06:12 PM

It's looking like a small descending wedge is forming today for SPX's decline, with the supporting bullish divergences. Another low, especially if it does a small throw-under below 1535, and then recover back inside the pattern, could set up a buying opportunity. Either that or wait for price to break above the downtrend line from this morning's first bounce high, currently near 1540. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:43:08 AM

One way to blow up your account is to keep "scaling into" a position that continues to move against you. Hard lessons.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 11:41:47 AM

Still probing for a low here but with the bullish divergences on the 5-min chart it's hinting of finding a bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:41:43 AM

Good thing I didn't keep buying QID eh?

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:37:54 AM

eBay (EBAY) $34.31 +0.17% ... oh the pleasure?

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:37:50 AM

Disclosure: I currently hold position in QID. Much smaller than initial trade blotter profile, but still a partial. Ugh! Oh the pain.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:34:26 AM

Bearish swing trade long alert for 1/2 position in the UltraShort QQQ (AMEX:QID) at the offer of $41.92.

Stop goes $41.00, target $42.80.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:20:38 AM

YM 13,980 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:19:00 AM

Keene, Jim! See where YM low has been? Makes some sense doesn't it?

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:18:52 AM

I was too late in lowering the stop. Sorry folks.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 11:18:09 AM

This morning's pullback is definitely worth testing the long side so a pullback now that makes a higher low should be a good long play, stop at a new daily low.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:17:44 AM

Ah gee stopped at 846.20 b/e.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:16:57 AM

You know I should have lowered the target to the high at 847.30 when it was not able to break that resistance. Counter trend trades you have to adjust when you see ER hits a resistance. So lets do that now. Lower target to 847.30.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:14:14 AM

... if you put your stop at b/e 846.20 that is.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:13:51 AM

ER made a low of 846.30 and it looks like another windshield trade. :)

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:15:27 AM

Reformulated gasoline stockpiles rose by 21,000 barrels to 2.46 million barrels. New product, so year-ago not comparable.
Up 15.18 for month-ago.
Up 12.64% vs. 2-months
Up 25.72% Vs. 3-months.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:12:59 AM

Egads haven't looked at Gold for a while. This is sweet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:12:11 AM

Total gasoline stockpiles fell by 2.2 million barrels last week to 203.3 million barrels. Down 5.07% from year-ago 214.2 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:09:53 AM

US Crude Oil stockpiles fell by 449,000 for the week ended July 13 to 352.1 million barrels. Up 4.97% from year-ago 335.4 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:09:46 AM

Of course you can bail here and take what you have but if that was not your plan going into the trade then you should not do it. That only leads to poor decisions down the road.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:08:05 AM

This is probably a day to give a trade more breathing room but 1 loss already today does shade your decisions.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:07:03 AM

My stop is at b/e.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:06:43 AM

Got to within 2 ticks of target so now you have to decide to put your stop to b/e or give the trade more breathing room.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:06:10 AM

Stop to 845.40 now

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:05:20 AM

Crude is going parabolic. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:05:19 AM

Permian Basis Trust (PBT) $14.31 -0.27% ... onshore oil and nat. gas field.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 11:04:36 AM

Valero (VLO) $74.87 -0.30% ...

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:04:33 AM

Once we hit 847.00 raise the stop to 845.40.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:03:32 AM

The swing low was made at 845.30 so I will leave the stop at 844.80 for now. alert

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 11:02:43 AM

We were triggered long before the retracement and higher low and that is always hard to take. The higher low just confirmed however.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:58:31 AM

Long at 846.20 and stop is 844.80.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:57:16 AM

If triggered long at 846.20 stop will be 844.80.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:55:15 AM

Let's try a long again. ER long at 846.20. alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 10:53:11 AM

DJ- Oil Futures: Gasoline Surges $0.03/Gal As US Stockpiles Fall

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 10:51:33 AM

It looks like the bulls blinked. SPX is now down to its 30-min 100-pma and close to its 10-dma (1536.15) so watch to see SPX can hold above the important 1535 level.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 10:51:03 AM

VIX.X 16.78 +7.35% ... reviewed yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 10:50:16 AM

Looking like a "trend day" lower from the internals.

From Monday's Wrap, ER/MR should be weakest, then ES, then NQ, then YM.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 10:49:27 AM

NASDAQ a/d 704/2,092.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 10:49:06 AM

NYSE a/d 782/2,245

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:48:12 AM

OK this is what I want to see. Didn't want to be just stopped then the market go the other way. And, as I stated earlier, this a testament to the strength of the bears.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 10:46:25 AM

Testimony of Chairman Ben Bernanke July 18, 2007 at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 10:43:34 AM

For those that may have never traded a stock with a covered call.

Sometimes, due to account size, your broker may not allow you to close out the underlying stock position, and carry the once covered call naked, even though you are planning on closing out that naked call before the close.

In cases like this, I suggest you execute your trades like this.

Have a "mental stop" on the shares, say $34.20. But have a standing order stop of "stop limit" $34.10 with your broker. When the "mental stop" is traded ($34.20), simply buy back the covered call (buy to close position). Once that confirmation is received, then adjust stop on underlying.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:41:52 AM

DAteline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- A cautious Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Wednesday that recent improvement in underlying inflation may prove temporary, though he repeated the Fed's longstanding view that those pressures should moderate in coming months.

Economic growth should pick up despite the continued housing drag, Mr. Bernanke added in testimony before Congress, and against that backdrop inflation has remained the "predominant" policy risk, he said, suggesting that the likeliest scenario remains a lengthy continuation of the Fed's year-long pause in interest rates.

"Overall, the U.S. economy appears likely to expand at a moderate pace over the second half of 2007, with growth then strengthening a bit in 2008 to a rate close to the economy's underlying trend," Mr. Bernanke said in prepared testimony to the House Financial Services Committee, where he delivered his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress.

The Fed has held the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% for eight meetings dating back more than one year and has repeatedly warned that inflation remains the predominant risk.

Whereas past Fed warnings about inflation and the suggestion that rates would stay on hold for the foreseeable future were once at odds with Wall Street hopes for a near-term easing of policy, Mr. Bernanke and the markets seem increasingly in synch. Financial markets now see the Fed on hold into 2008, though its next move is still expected to be a rate cut.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 10:39:57 AM

It's a game of who's going to blink first here. Are we going to continue lower or are the bears going to blink and start covering?

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:38:33 AM

Ok yeaterday we had a windshield trade (we were the windshield and not the bug). The lows on that dip were 846.80 so we were just stopped out. It looks like this is our "bug" trade to offset the "windshield" trade from yesterday.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:37:05 AM

SPX is testing its resistance turned support at 1540. Yesterday I stated that I thought this support would not hold. We'll have to see. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:36:39 AM

Stopped at 846.80. A perfect long setup that did not work is telling me the bears are a lot stronger today than I thought.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 10:36:03 AM

EBAY $32.29 +0.11% .... XBA-GG are $0.80 x $0.85

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 10:33:43 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:29:50 AM

Stop to 846.80

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:29:17 AM

Of course the target is 848.20 + 1.3 = 849.50

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:28:43 AM

Long from 848.20 stop is 846.40 until I can raise it. alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 10:23:21 AM

Earnings on EBAY due out after the bell.

For my MM Profiles , BOTH the underlying LONG and the covered call will be CLOSED OUT before earnings are released.

PROTECTING BULLISH GAINS.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:23:02 AM

The high at 848.00 is telling me the long at 848.20 is a very good entry. This is setting up perfectly.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2007 10:21:36 AM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert! ... for the underlying 1/3 position in eBay (EBAY) $34.36 +0.32% ... to $34.20.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:20:57 AM

If triggered long the stop will be 846.40. alert

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:20:02 AM

ER just made a higher low BEFORE the long trigger - this is what we want to see.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:19:20 AM

ER's countertrend trades can be sweet but you certainly have to stay awake and monitor them.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 10:17:17 AM

A 3-wave pullback from Monday's high, with the 2nd leg down achieving 162% of the 1st leg down, would have SPX finding support around 1540.42: Link

Assuming for now that SPX will find support here and head back higher, a Fib projection for the 5th wave up would be to the 1571 area and potentially right up to the trend line along the highs from June 28th: Link

This would be potentially significant since there's a turn date on this Friday, July 20th, +/- 1 day. That gives us a turn window of Thursday through next Monday and this price projection would fit that window to mark a potential high for the market.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:17:08 AM

You can lower that long entry now to 848.20.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:15:06 AM

WE are oversold now so we could take a counter trend trade. ER long at 848.70. alert

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:11:26 AM

Please be aware though the TRIN is still 0.82 but it looks like the bears are saying, "Frankly Scarlet I don't give a damn."

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:07:40 AM

Things totally turned around and VIX to new daily highs and AD volume to new daily lows. The bears did not fumble and are running for the endzone.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:06:18 AM

Bernake calls for early, meaningful action to trim deficit

Bernake: Economic expansion appears on solid track

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 10:02:46 AM

AD volume climbing and VIX to new daily lows - bulls are clamoring for the ball. Did the bears just fumble it?

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 9:53:50 AM

And once again we have the AD line and volume very bearish yet the TRIN is bullish at 0.82.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 9:52:16 AM

The buying support comes back into the market. The important test will be gap closure. Then we'll see how much buying interest there really is.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 9:50:18 AM

SPX came right down to the uptrend line from March that price has been flip-flopping around since the latter part of June. As long as it holds above 1540, and especially 1535, the bulls stay in control. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 9:44:17 AM

Oh my goodness AD line is a very bearish -1228

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 9:27:44 AM

The overnight patterns for ES and YM are almost exactly the same other than ES traded under its PDL whereas YM was able to trade above its PDL about 1/2 the time. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2007 9:19:21 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- U.S. consumer prices grew moderately last month, as energy costs retreated sharply, while underlying inflation advanced within market expectations.

Meanwhile, home construction unexpectedly rose in June, after two straight months of declines, but a plunge in building permits indicated the upturn might be short-lived.

The consumer price index rose 0.2% in June, the Labor Department said Wednesday, down from May's 0.7% rise. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, advanced 0.2%, up from the previous month's 0.1% increase.

Unrounded, the CPI rose 0.191% last month. The core CPI advanced 0.232% unrounded.

The data were broadly in line with Wall Street forecasts. The median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was for a 0.1% CPI increase and 0.2% core rise.

Keene Little : 7/18/2007 9:10:04 AM

They've been trying to slowly lift the futures back up off the overnight lows but so far we're looking at a healthy gap down opening. This is opex week and it's possible we're going to get a 4th wave correction that lasts a couple of days, both of which could cause some real whipsaws so be careful today.

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