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Keene Little : 7/20/2007 11:03:05 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 10:50:50 PM

The DOW's daily chart shows the bullish wave count that calls Friday's low as the end of the 4th wave pullback (the correction within the rally from June 27th) with a final 5th wave to a new high remaining. The bearish wave count calls Thursday's high as the end of the rally and Friday's drop was just the beginning of a long way back down. It takes a break below 13670 to prove the bears have taken the ball away from the bulls. Upside potential is first to 14052 and then 14208. DOW daily: Link

Its 60-min chart shows a closer view of what to watch for on Monday. If we get another leg up to the bounce that started from Friday's low, watch for two equal legs up (13935 which is near a 62% retracement at 13931) for signs of topping and then try a short. If prices head right up through the 78.6% at 13966 then be looking for new highs for the bullish wave count. Any drop back down below Friday's low should be solid confirmation that we've seen the highs (including if we drop out of the gates on Monday). 60-min chart: Link

The same is true for SPX--Friday's decline either finished the 4th wave correction (green wave-iv on the daily chart) and now we'll get a final 5th wave rally to a new high, probably around 1562-1563, or else the top is already in and a bounce on Monday will be followed by a drop below Friday's low. Link

The 60-min chart shows the bearish expectation for a bounce on Monday to set up a very good shorting opportunity (MOAP--Mother of All Puts) for a position kind of trade. Two equal legs up in the bounce off Friday's low would be near 1544.60 which is right on top of the 62% retracement. Any move above 78.6% (1549) and we can expect to be in the 5th wave to a new high. Link

NDX had a cleaner topping pattern on Thursday and the drop from that high left a clean 5-wave decline. This is the one that has me leaning toward the bearish camp and I like the setup for a short play on Monday. The daily chart shows an evening star reversal candlestick pattern at trend line resistance and Friday's decline was impulsive, indicating a change in the trend to down. Daily: Link and 10-min: Link I zoomed in even closer with the 10-min chart to show how Monday could set up (hopefully we won't get a gap down on Monday and be forced to chase it lower).

The RUT has either a choppy month ahead as it works its way a little higher or else its rally is also done. By dropping below the July 11th low it gave a strong sell signal on Friday. RUT daily: Link

GOOG had an interesting day on Friday--gapping down nearly $37 before recovering some during the rest of the day. By its wave count, which I was calling complete on Monday, July 16th, the gap down should be the kickoff to a much larger decline. As such I do not expect to see the gap get closed. In fact I'd be surprised to see even 50% of it get closed. It should stair-step lower until it's ready for a larger bounce. The daily chart is just speculation at this time as an idea of what may play out next. It will take a little more price action following Friday's gap down before I'll get a better idea of what comes next. Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/20/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Keene Little : 7/20/2007 4:12:34 PM

Assuming we get the bounce on Monday we'll need to stay aware of the bullish wave count possibility, which says the rally will keep going up to a new high, but we'll give a short a try and see what becomes of it. Updated 60-min chart: Link

Have a great weekend. Go make some gingerbread cookies in the shape of bulls and you can snack on them after Monday.

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 4:06:00 PM

The same setup shown for NDX would look like this on SPX: Link Note that two equal legs up from today's low falls right on top of the 62% retracement of the decline. Nice correlation near 1544.60 for the MOAP. Now you can go home with gingerbread bears dancing in your head.

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 4:00:14 PM

Updating NDX's 10-min chart as we head into the close, I like the setup for a bounce on Monday to then set up an outstanding shorting opportunity. Whether it works or not can't be known but it'll sure be worth a try. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 4:00:17 PM

Permian Basin Trust (PBT) $14.59 +0.82% ... Good news for a change! July distribution raised to $0.116911/share. Press release Link

Drake's loaded in the truck. Gott'a go!

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 3:54:17 PM

By dropping below their July 11th low the banks (BIX) triggered the bearish wave count. The banks have been our canary and I think the poor thing took its last breath. The bearish wave count on this suggests price will break below the bottom of its down-channel but could get a little bounce off it first, currently near today's low at 377. Link

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 3:14:17 PM

The bounce is becoming too large (subjective) to be part of the decline from yesterday. It's possible we completed a 5-wave move down from yesterday afternoon's high, which for SPX and DOW looks like a truncated high for its rally (little clearer finish on NDX).

For the bearish wave count, that would make the current bounce this afternoon the 2nd wave correction which should make it higher but hopefully in a more defined 3-wave move (so a down-up sequence to go, possibly finishing as early as Monday) for the short play to set up. Using the NDX 10-min chart it might look something like this: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 3:01:24 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Trade Blotter of CLOSED MM Profiles at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 2:40:45 PM

Well, what a day for traders! I'm off to the hills for some fishing! Have a great weekend!

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 2:39:19 PM

QQQQ $50.10 ... that $50 strike?

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 2:38:37 PM

Covering another NQ short from 2,058 here. Don't like the NQ's ability to have retraced 61.8% "dynamic"

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 2:20:21 PM

After dropping through it, SPX is back up to its 10-dma just above 1540. Now we'll see if acts as resistance. Big bounce off today's low.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 2:10:17 PM

2 hours, 2 hours until July expiration.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 2:35:19 PM

Someone lit a firecracker under the market.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 2:07:43 PM

Wow I can't believe how lucky we were that me missed that short. WE were overbot and I was trading a short reversal and felt totally comfortable doing it because the internals are so bearish.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 2:03:24 PM

A missed losing trade is just as good as a winner IMHO and it may be that we just missed a loser here.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 2:01:35 PM

OK let's do an ER short at 839.80 instead.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 2:01:10 PM

Darn sorry too late.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 2:00:52 PM

ER short at 840.80 alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:53:45 PM

GOOG Option Montage Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:51:15 PM

Check out your GOOG July Put montage ... see the red/green transition? About $525.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:47:18 PM

Don't think GOOG can make GREEN #6 and overlapping WEEKLY S2 today. Never know with the GOOG.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:46:11 PM

Selling long GOOG here at $521 from $515 entry. GREEN #3 just above at $522.57.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 1:41:59 PM

Hit target. Whew that trade got down to 839.00 and our stop was at 838.80. I think that qualifies for a "windshield" trade.

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 1:37:06 PM

One thing the bears have going for them here, as far as figuring out which wave count could be the correct one, is what I see on SPX. By dropping below 1534 and taking out the high on July 9th, it makes the bullish wave count much less likely. It could be some kind of larger ascending wedge setting up (for a choppy run higher into August) but I'd have to have a bullish bias to force that wave count on SPX right now.

Therefore I'm leaning towards the bearish wave counts on the two charts I've posted for SPX and the DOW. This will become especially so if we consolidate for a while and then drop a little lower. That would then set up the big rally correction next week and the MOAP (mother of all puts) opportunity.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:34:58 PM

DDX +1.37% ... has been green throughout.

OIH -0.02% just stuck its head green.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:32:46 PM

VXN 17.70

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:32:32 PM

QQQQ $49.93 -0.77% ... NQ/QQQQ/QID bears cheer their disciplined trading and hard work.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:31:10 PM

GOOG $520.70 -5.08% ... just off best levels of the session now.

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 1:28:47 PM

We're getting a pretty good jump up off the lows, leaving some pretty bullish hammer candlesticks on the 60-min charts. Assuming we've seen the low for this leg down, you can update the 60-min DOW chart I had posted at 12:44 to show the upside Fib target for equality between the 1st and 5th waves would now be at 14208.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:28:21 PM

Permian Basis Trust (PBT) $14.61 +0.96% ... has edged above its 150-day SMA ($14.48), 200-day SMA ($14.93) just above.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:26:44 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

CLOSED out two (2) of the XLF-TK at $1.85 when XLF was trading $35.47.

Still holding one (1) XLF-TK, Benchmarked to $36.15 entry on 7/20/07.

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 1:25:25 PM

The "cleaned up" SPX 60-min chart that I posted at 12:18 does not link to the chart for some of you so I'm re-posting it here: Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 1:20:39 PM

Stop to 838.80 alert

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 1:20:00 PM

Of course the target is 840.20 + 1.3 = 841.50.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 1:19:38 PM

Long from 840.20 stop is 838.40 for now.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 1:16:52 PM

ER long at 840.20 alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:10:21 PM

On June 25th, you and I didn't know where the July MONTHLY Pivot levels were. FULL POSITION BEAR takes some profits today!

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 1:08:56 PM

Financial Select SPRDs (XLF) $35.36 -1.99% ... daily interval bar chart with conventional 6/14/06-6/01/07 low/high closes. And July's MONTHLY Pivot retracement Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 12:59:05 PM

Educational #2 (new option traders): ... now 3 different prices. Still some determined sellers at $1.90 Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 12:55:12 PM

Actually getting PAID to be educated for a change. Worst education is the one that costs dearly and blows up your account.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 12:52:31 PM

Educational (new option traders): ... Here's an example of how options market makers can at times provide different prices. XLF and XLF-TK at time of today's execution Link

A good options trading platform allows the trade to "pick and choose" what exchange they want to buy/sell at.

NYSE and BOSX were giving a better price at time of execution.

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 12:44:08 PM

For those who would like to get short the market, before you go home with gingerbread bears dancing in your head, keep these DOW charts in mind. The 60-min chart shows the possibility that today's decline is finishing the 4th wave correction (note that it is very close to a 38% retracement of the 3rd wave which is very common) and we'll now get a new rally leg to new all-time highs. Link

The Fib projection for equality between the 1st and 5th waves in the rally from June 27th would be at 14227 (assuming today's low is the end of the pullback). This continues to fit the bullish wave count scenario I've been showing on the daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 12:39:14 PM

VIX 17.28 ... has traded 17.43 and MONTHLY 38.2% of 17.41.

Tab Gilles : 7/20/2007 12:38:03 PM

Lots of technicals working for GOOG. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 12:34:12 PM

XLF session low has been MONTHLY S1. Save one for StockTrader's Almanac "bear head" on Monday?

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 12:33:15 PM

Swing trade close out partial put alert! ... Let's go ahead and close out two (2) of the three (3) Financial Select SPDR's XLF Aug $37 Puts (XLF-TK) at the bid of $1.85.

XLF $35.47.

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 12:27:04 PM

Gold has had a great rally the last few days and now the daily chart shows RSI at the same overbought level that has turned back previous rallies. The 60-min chart here shows the potential to hit 690 but it's clearly close to running out of headroom. Gold may have already topped out and should be setting up another short play. Link

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 12:18:02 PM

We're down to two potential wave counts on the SPX (and DOW) now that price has taken out Wednesday's low so I cleaned up the chart some. What develops over the next few days will answer the question as to whether or not we've seen THE high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 12:12:05 PM

NQ/QQQQ/QID what have you ... now you've booked a handsome gain. Perhaps flat at what becomes the session low.

Now you've had some success from the short side!

Now you begin assessing MAX day reward to this low, or WEEKLY Pivot.

Now MANAGE your RISK accordingly.

Maybe a "bounce" comes back to DAILY S1 and you can short again with TARGETS of the daily low, or WEEKLY Pivot.

RISK, RISK, RISK ... REWARD, REWARD, REWARD. Constantly measure ...

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 12:11:23 PM

Sticking with the SPX chart I just posted, if it drops down to the uptrend line from June 27th, near 1525 then I'll be leaning towards the bearish wave count which calls for a bounce back up to the 1545 area next week. That would be the time to load up on put options and see what happens next. So be patient if you're a bear and anxious to short this puppy.

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 12:08:45 PM

The sideways triangle idea for the DOW and SPX just got violated with the drop below Wednesday's lows. Now the bullish possibility here is that we're finishing an a-b-c pullback to be followed by a final 5th wave to a new high. The bearish case says we'll only consolidate before dropping to another new low. It's looking pretty bearish here but c-waves will make you feel that way (they're like 3rd waves) so caution is still advised before loading up on puts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 12:04:32 PM

VXN 17.65

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 12:03:45 PM

QQQQ alert! $49.79 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 12:02:05 PM

QQQQ $49.83 ...

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 12:01:58 PM

SPX has now dropped to another potential support level near 1533. The bullish possibility here is that this drop is finishing the c-wave of an a-b-c pullback from the July 16 high. That would say rally from here. The other possibility, like I showed for the DOW, is that we'll see a sideways triangle. Link

But if SPX continues below 1533, bounces back up and then heads for new lows again, that would be confirmation that we've seen the high (bearish dark red wave count).

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 12:01:45 PM

Covering remaining day trade short in NQ here from 2,058.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:50:02 AM

XLF $35.40 -1.88% ... slips under 38.2% retracement and upward trend from 6/14/06 low to recent 3/14/07 relative low.

MONTHLY S1 and overlapping MONTHLY 80.9% below $35.30.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:43:06 AM

Jane! ER is the symbol you are using for Russell futures. MR is the QCharts symbol for Russell futures.

I use ER/MR so that you're traders and QCharts traders aren't confused.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:38:34 AM

Wachovia (WB) $50.18 -2.77% ... #6 weighting in the XLF $35.47 -1.69% (see MM Profiles and Watch List 10:39:52) ... AP Earnings Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:30:38 AM

OLN earnings due Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:30:00 AM

OLN -5.57% ... not seeing any news at this point. Maybe a "like stock" making some news?

My call yesterday was to just sell partials!

Volume rather light at just 357,200.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 11:29:15 AM

US $ is still making new yearly lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:27:54 AM

OEX -0.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:27:42 AM

SPX -0.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:27:27 AM

INDU -1.00% ...

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 11:27:22 AM

Jeff what is ER/MR?

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:27:07 AM

NDX just -0.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:26:41 AM

RUT -1.74% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:26:15 AM

Wasn't able to "do the work" on ER/MR like we did on QQQQ/NQ

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:24:39 AM

Holding other, but stop lowered to b/e 2,058

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:23:35 AM

Covering partial day trade short in NQ here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 11:05:06 AM

IF short the NQ, you're 5-mrt is from the same 09:30-35 bar. I've always thought an any futures traders wants their levels to MATCH the cash. Especially PIVOTS (use intra-day highs/lows and CLOSE) for calculation of your pivot levels. (MONTHLY/WEEKLY/DAILY)

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 10:56:25 AM

Here's the DOW 60-min chart I was trying to upload, showing the sideways triangle idea: Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 10:50:14 AM

Not sure I will be taking any more long reversals today even though we are quite oversold now. Link

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 10:49:59 AM

One idea that can't be ruled out yet on the DOW is a sideways triangle for a larger 4th wave correcttion to the rally from June 27th. I'm having trouble uploading charts again today but if you look at the DOW 60-min chart I posted last night (see below), the trend line along the highs since March is currently near 13843. Watch for support there and then a rally back up in what could become a large sideways triangle consolidation that runs into next week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 10:47:29 AM

OK ... stepping out of the MM for the rest of the day. I will be commenting on my OPEN MM profiles only if need be.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 10:46:19 AM

PHF $9.90 +0.40% ... may "dilly-dally" for several days, but always keeping an eye on the "junk bonds"

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 10:45:29 AM

Even with CAT (YM/DIA/INDU) -0.91% and GOOG/MSFT (NQ/QQQQ/NDX) -0.82% ... its the RUT.X -1.35% that's weaker on a relative basis.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 10:39:52 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and watch list at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 10:37:05 AM

Stopped at 844.80

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 10:36:33 AM

Needless to say this trade is testing our patience but we need to stick to plan and trade the plan.

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 10:34:52 AM

The DOW and SPX need to start back up now otherwise the drop will be too large to be part of the rally leg from July 11th, and that would indicate we may have topped out yesterday (which is what the NDX was telling me).

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 10:31:34 AM

Looks like the stop at 844.80 was well placed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 10:31:00 AM

VXN alert! 17.14 ... RISING to WEEKLY Pivot. Did NOT get the gap as predicted. Thinking $49.78 is "MAX GAIN" for day trade bear. $50.00 strike may be tough.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 10:28:51 AM

QQQQ 2-chart montage ... 5-MRT on left, Pivot Chart on right Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 10:26:19 AM

Another low at 845.10. So is this going to be a "windshield" trade? Sure hope so. Notice I have gone into the hoping stage now :)

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 10:25:26 AM

Crude hit a high of 76.39 so far today. Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 10:23:15 AM

I was going to put the long at 846.20 but thought I wanted the extra confirmation. I see that was not a good plan today. WE made a low of 845.10 so still long.

What I like to see is a reversal then a retrace to make a higher low, which ER did do, and then get long after the retrace so we don't have to take the heat we just did on this trade,. However ER made another retrace and looks to be making a lower high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 10:19:28 AM

For day trader's, ONCE a 5-minute CLOSE BELOW a level, should NOT CLOSE 2-LEVELS above. If short at RED#2, then STOP above RED #0 (or GREEN #1).

We've seen a 5-minute CLOSE below RED#4, so STOP can be lowered to RED #2.

RED #2 also OVERLAPS DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 10:16:02 AM

QQQQ $50.13 ... 5-minute interval chart, but now with just the UPPER/LOWER 5-MRTs

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 10:15:22 AM

Long at 846.60 was triggered. Target of course is 847.90

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 10:14:04 AM

If triggered long at 846.60 stop will be 844.80 alert

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 10:13:14 AM

ER long at 846.60 alert

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 10:12:40 AM

Here are the jtHMA charts of $RUT.X and as you can see the daily has now turned red. So next week we will be looking for the 120 and 60 minute charts to turn back green and place a IWM buy order just above the first 120 minute bar that is green as long as the 60 is green as well. Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 9:58:48 AM

OK these are really bearish now and TRIN is supporting it. Link

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 9:57:42 AM

The same uptrend line for SPX is at 1543.

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 9:55:47 AM

The DOW has now dropped back down to its uptrend line from July 11th, here at 13917.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 9:44:18 AM

AD line and volume bearish but once again the TRIN is below 0 at 0.88. Yesterday the AD line and volume were very bullish and the TRIN printed above 1.00 most of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2007 9:40:58 AM

Apple (AAPL) $141.52 +1.10% ... that's a new 52-weeker.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 9:37:10 AM

AD line a bearish -935 but AD volume is climbing although it is below 0.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 9:35:07 AM

My goodness gracious Crude is over $76.00/bl now, which is certainly giving a lift to Gold. Link

Keene Little : 7/20/2007 9:19:08 AM

Looks like we're going to start the day in the hole, especially the DOW thanks to CAT--it's trading premarket just above $80 after closing at $86.81. NDX gives me the impression it topped yesterday but SPX and DOW look like they could use another high. It might mean a choppy day but hopefully a direction will become clearer later this morning.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 9:17:06 AM

So far only YM has broken its PDL but that was entirely due to the fact that YM was not open when all the other three took the huge dip right after they opened Thursday's overnight session, making their PDLs a lot lower. Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 9:12:04 AM

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China moved to cool the economy late Friday with a 0.27 percentage-point hike in interest rates just a day after scorching GDP data showed the nation on track for its fastest annual growth in more than a decade.

In a statement published on its Web site, the People's Bank of China said it will raise the one-year yuan lending rate to 6.84% from 6.57%, effective Saturday. The one-year deposit rate will rise to 3.33% from 3.06%.

It's the fifth time since April 2006 that China's central bank has lifted the benchmark lending rate.

Data released Thursday showed China's economy expanded 11.9% in the second quarter, up from 11.1% from the preceding three-month period. For the first half, China's economy expanded 11.5%, suggesting current momentum will see the economy post its strongest full-year growth since 1994, when GDP climbed 13.1%.

The GDP data exceeded consensus estimates among economists for 10.8% growth, and bettered the central bank's own estimates for 10.9% growth.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2007 9:10:40 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures declined on Friday, with earnings misses from Google, Caterpillar and Ericsson and an in-line quarter from Microsoft taking some of the momentum away from a mostly upbeat earnings season so far.

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