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Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 11:18:54 PM

FedEx Cuts Freight Fuel Surcharge Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 11:18:18 PM

Wal-Mart to Cut Prices on 16,000 Items Link

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 11:14:59 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

A break of either Monday's high or Friday's low should be the direction of the market to play. There could be a continued choppy pullback that doesn't negate the bullish potential as long as it stays above Friday's lows.
DOW 60-min: Link
SPX 60-min: Link
NDX 60-min: Link
RUT Daily (still a choppy mess): Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/23/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 4:12:42 PM

Ok Bears don't get too excited the Russell has not even broken Friday's lows yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 4:12:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Closed out partial (~1/5 position) in PBT at $14.47.

Closed/stopped out remaining CME at $563.

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 4:03:07 PM

The DOW and SPX finish in between this afternoon's key levels at the high and low, leaving us guessing which one will break first tomorrow. Play the direction of the break. I'll show the setups in tonight's Wrap and copy a couple of the charts onto the Market Monitor site for those who don't get the Market Wraps.

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 3:43:20 PM

INDU +0.71%

OEX +0.79%

NDX +0.04%

SPX +0.57%

RUT +0.05%

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 3:39:29 PM

Oh, traders should have some bearish RUT-type position though. Sure looking vulnerable to MONTHLY S1/WEEKLY S1 overlap.

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 3:37:43 PM

There it is ... RUT.X 836.22 -0.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 3:34:00 PM

RUT.X 836.97 +0.06% ... "refuses" to trade MONTHLY Pivot at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 3:33:29 PM

Covering an ER/MR short here from 844.60.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 3:30:27 PM

Here are the jtHMA charts for the Russell 2000. we need to have the 120 and 60 minute charts turn green and that is a buy. Link

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 3:23:05 PM

I wish I had a crystal ball to tell me when we are going to have days like this and I wouldn't even try trading. Mind you though the VIX and AD volume were sort of telling me that this morning but then they got in sync and I thought the bulls would rule today.

Well that didn't happen did it. Just goes to show you Mr. Market will do whatever he likes. Link

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 3:05:57 PM

The key level for the bears is now the afternoon low--if price now drops back down below that low then it would be bearish. But if the pullback we're getting right now is followed by another push higher this afternoon/tomorrow then the bulls win and I'd say there's a good chance we'll make it to new highs. So this afternoon's high and low make for the key levels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 3:07:04 PM

AAPL +0.09% Link , MSFT +0.57% Link , QCOM -0.06% Link , GOOG -0.98% Link , CSCO +2.36% Link , INTC +1.09% Link .

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 2:56:11 PM

After leading the parade higher the past couple of weeks, the techs are significantly behind today. The NDX is barely positive and the DOW is up 112 points. Looks to me like more flight to safety in large numbers (caps).

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 2:49:28 PM

European Markets: Link

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 2:46:54 PM

From a short term perspective, the bigger bounce off this afternoon's low now looks like an impulsive move up and has left today's pullback as just a corrective 3-wave pullback. This says we should get a pullback and then a continuation higher and that says we're probably in the 5th wave up as per the bullish wave count.

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 2:29:31 PM

Banks (BIX) are making new daily lows and are nearing the March low at 374.78. You can see the major divergence between the banks, getting ready to test the March low, and the broader averages very near all-time highs. Follow the money.

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 2:16:02 PM

September Nat. Gas (ng07u) down $0.423, or -6.48% at $6.10.

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 2:14:00 PM

Bullish swing trade long sell partial alert! ... Sell 150 shares of the Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) at the bid of $14.47.

Hold the remaining 100 shares, stop at $13.90.

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 2:06:59 PM

Today's price action can be viewed bearishly as a rolling top (dome top) or bullishly as consolidation. I'm still leaning to the short side here. But a push back above the highs just before 1:00 PM would have me switching sides or staying flat.

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 2:06:51 PM

On Friday the RUT.X's NH/NL were 24:143

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 2:04:19 PM

ProShares UltraShort Russ2000 (AMEX:TWM) $62.27 -0.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 2:03:35 PM

ProShares Short Russell2000 (AMEX:RWM) $66.75 -0.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 2:02:55 PM

iShares Russell 2000 alert! (AMEX:IWM) $83.40 +0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 1:43:56 PM


DJ- Claiming exercise rights no longer exist, Chicago Board Options Exchange bans trading floor access to members of the Chicago Board of Trade, according to Crain's Chicago Business report.

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 1:12:37 PM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for CME Group (CME) $563 +0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 1:06:08 PM

I would be looking to buy iShare Russell 2000 AMEX:IWM puts today if the IWM trades $83.40.

IWM $83.66 +0.55% ...

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 12:56:36 PM

Stopped at b/e.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 12:55:41 PM

And ER is now overbot again.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 12:54:54 PM

WE hit at high of 847.30 so I am going to put the stop to b/e.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 12:54:31 PM

Target is 846.20 + 1.3 = 847.50.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 12:53:27 PM

Raise stop to 844.80 now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 12:51:46 PM

Asian Markets: Link

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 12:45:11 PM

OK now raise the stop to 844.40. alert

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 12:35:36 PM

WE are still long from 846.20

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 12:21:54 PM

This has been one of the more labored rallies so it doesn't inspire bullishness in me. But the sellers certainly can't make hay today. I think this is vulnerable to a quick break down but so far nothing.

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 12:19:00 PM

Crocs, Inc. (CROX) $47.34 +4.77% Link ... Today's trade at $47 enough for a 3-box reversal back higher.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 12:16:36 PM

The stop at 843.80 was necessary.

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 12:15:02 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 12:05:04 PM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/23/2007 12:00:56 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for CME Group (CME) $565.65 +0.64% ... to $563 from $550.

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 11:46:58 AM

It's looking like an ascending wedge for this morning's price action, with the bearish divergences. This is suggesting we may have seen the high (tiny little throw-over finish) or else watch a Fib projection at 13976 for a potential high. A break of this morning's uptrend line at 13955 would be a sell signal here and then we'd just have to see what becomes of it. DOW 3-min chart: Link

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 11:33:00 AM

Daily highs at 847.00 8 ticks away from the long at 846.20 and gives us room to raise the stop.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 11:30:27 AM

You know I see a swing low at 844.20 so the stop will have to go to 843.80. If you are not willing to take on that much risk then you probably should not take the trade.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 11:29:12 AM

If triggered long at 846.20 stop is 844.20. I would like to put it at 843.80 but that is a very wide stop.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 11:26:37 AM

ER long at 846.20 alert

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 11:25:10 AM

The same broken uptrend line for the DOW is near 14K.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 11:24:01 AM

I don't care what happens the odds are not in your favor if short. You need to be looking for a long entry.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 11:23:14 AM

VIX is now making new daily lows so you should not be short here.

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 11:23:09 AM

Adding one more possibility to the SPX 60-min chart, we could see it bounce up for a retest of its broken uptrend line from July 11th, currently near 1550. That would be a deep retracement of Friday's decline but not out of the ordinary for this market. It could be a bull trap so be careful of that potential. Link

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 11:21:13 AM

If I take a short obviously ER was overbot and not oversold.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 11:20:44 AM

Dang it ER got overbot and not oversold but y'all know what I meant.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 11:19:40 AM

AD volume is making new daily highs at and the VIX is hovering at daily lows. The odds are not in our favor for a short here - even for a quick scalp.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 11:18:38 AM

Taking the Short at 843.80 off the table - alert

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 11:20:04 AM

ER got overbot so let's try a short at 843.80. alert

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 11:04:29 AM

If the market doesn't roll back over here then it will be the bulls in charge until proven otherwise (in other words it will look like we'll be in the bullish wave count which is looking for a new high this week).

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 10:58:48 AM

The DOW and SPX have achieved two equal legs up on their bounces off Friday's low (SPX pennies shy as I type). So watch for signs of topping (or not).

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:53:39 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Annual growth is expected to jump from 0.7% in the first quarter to about 3.4% in the second quarter, but many economists said they will feel little joy.

"People aren't going to take much comfort from a three-handle in Q2" growth, said Robert DiClemente, economist at Citicorp Global Markets Inc.

That's because the details will show an uneven balance of growth in the second quarter with more inventory accumulation than consumer spending.

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 10:52:45 AM

The choppy move higher this morning has an ending feel to it. It looks like it's ready to roll over again (at least that's my hope since I'm trying to short this). SPX 1546 is the most I'd let this get up to without thinking there's something more bullish going on.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:47:20 AM

The mixed internals were also telling me to pull back today.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:46:29 AM

2 loses this morn and that tells me I need to pull in the horns a little today.

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 10:45:26 AM

It sure has gotten quiet out there. Is it the quiet before the storm?

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:23:15 AM

So the stop at 842.20 would have been the better choice.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:21:47 AM

If you want you can put your stop at 842.20 now because the market has shown us resistance at 842.00 but I am going to leave mine at 842.70 for now.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:17:30 AM

ER made a low of 840.70 and if that low breaks the stop will go to 842.20.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:16:14 AM

Stop to 842.70

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:14:00 AM

Short from 841.30.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:13:01 AM

If triggered short stop will be 843.20

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 10:11:41 AM

Watch for a break of uptrend lines from Friday's low and then short a retest of the trend line.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:09:41 AM

ER short 841.30. alert

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 10:09:14 AM

That last jab might be all we're going to see. Watching carefully for signs of a break down in which case I'll look for the next bounce to try shorting against this morning's high.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:08:45 AM

VIX and TRIN to new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:06:52 AM

The fact that ER could not get through its daily high tells you alot.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:06:34 AM

Gee whiz!! ER tagged its daily high and retreats. ES and YM respect those daily highs but ER usually is strong enough to trade through its daily high.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:05:22 AM

Out at 843.40

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:05:11 AM

Should have put the stop to 843.80

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:03:39 AM

Stop should now be at 843.40

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:03:18 AM

Looks like the infamous blue trendline is still in play on the DAX charts. DAX is setting up a jtHMA long as well and if it triggers I will let you know. I have an ETF you can trade. Link

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 10:02:10 AM

It looks like a very small bull flag pullback this morning so we should get another leg higher and maybe hit the projections for two equal legs up from Friday's low.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 10:01:34 AM

Taking some heat on this long now but we are still alive. The entry at 844.20 was a good idea for the 844.60 entry has have been triggered as well.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:59:44 AM

The continuous Gold contract adjusted to the December contract is now testing yearly highs. Link

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:56:36 AM

Once we get to 845.00 put the stop to 843.40.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:54:37 AM

Daily highs are sitting at 845.20 but if ER gets enough steam built up it should take those highs out easily.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:53:47 AM

Stop to 842.80. alert

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:53:05 AM

Target of course is 844.20 + 1.3 = 845.50.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:51:58 AM

Long from 844.20 stop is 842.40.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:48:20 AM

The fast 13 ticks we try to scalp is not hard to grab from ER.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:47:07 AM

Let's be a little brave this morning and put the ER long at 844.20.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:46:34 AM

AD volume making new daily highs but so is the VIX. This means the bulls and the bears are fighting and you need to be careful to not become collateral damage. Link

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:44:44 AM

AD line climbing and is now at +945

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:44:02 AM

If triggered long then the short at 841.80 is off the table. WE now have the market bracketed.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:44:09 AM

ER long at 844.60. alert

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:41:15 AM

AD line is a bullish +852

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:37:55 AM

If triggered short stop will be 843.80.

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 9:37:48 AM

ES hit 1553.25. Was that close enough? Another quick jab higher to 1554 with negative divergence on the 1 and 3 min charts will have me testing the short side this morning.

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:37:13 AM

I see a short at 841.80. alert

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:36:03 AM

I thought the resistance the SPX found at 1540 would not hold up as support, it was just too close to where SPX's rally ended. Link

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:31:10 AM

I was looking for the DOW to retrace to test its resistance turned support at 13700. It will be interesting to see if the bearishness we saw on Friday has any follow through or not. Link

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:28:57 AM

Russell 2000 Cash index is still trading within its trading range and could easily revisit its lower end at 820.00. The $RUT.x is also the only market that retraced enough to setup a possible jtHMA long. The other American markets have not yet retraced enough.

The DAX is setting up a jtHMA buy as well. Link

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:24:34 AM

Crude broke its PDL and it looks like this market is finally going to take a little rest.

The continuous futures Gold is now trading the December contract and explains the jump in this market. Link

Jane Fox : 7/23/2007 9:16:47 AM

Not what you would call a real dynamic overnight session but higher highs and lows tell be the bulls had the upper hand. Link

Keene Little : 7/23/2007 8:11:37 AM

Equity futures got a nice pop up off the 6:30 AM low, with ES rallying 7.50 points before pulling back some. It looks like merger and LBO news has traders feeling bullish on merger mania Monday again. We'll get to see early if it holds.

I had mentioned to watch for two equal legs up in the bounce from Friday's low for a potential short entry. For YM and ES that would be at 14012 and 1554, resp. The premarket highs so far (13997 and 1551, resp.) are a little short of those levels so a little higher and it will be time to test the waters on the short side.

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