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Keene Little : 7/24/2007 11:15:13 PM

e-mini futures contracts you'll see traded on the Monitor and the current front month:
DOW 30 (YM), September
S&P 500 (ES), September
Nasdaq 100 (NQ), September
Russell 2000 (ER--may be different on your charts), September
10-year Note (ZN), September
30-year Bond (ZB), September
Gold (YG), August
Silver (YI), September
Oil (QM), September

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 10:45:49 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

After today's big drop it'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. By the looks of the short term patterns, they could use some additional downside work, perhaps stair-stepping lower and frustrating the dip buyers while not letting the bears in on a decent bounce. That's what I'm showing for the bearish counts. The bullish count says the pullback could be nearly finished (if not already) and up we go to finish the rally from March.

For the DOW, its uptrend line from March is currently near 13600 and it could stair-step down to it over the next day or two, then bounce and then break that support. Bullishly we could see the 3-wave pullback from the high on July 19th ending soon and then start another rally leg to a new high. DOW 60-min: Link

SPX has had a much stronger drop, thanks to financials which have been taken out to the woodshed. The more bearish scenario says we'll stair-step lower and drop below 1506, the July 11th low, which would kill the bullish wave count calling for another 3-wave move up to a marginal new high. As shown in light red, if SPX bounces back up to test its broken uptrend line from June 27th, currently near 1534, that would be the next great opportunity for a short entry (MOAP II). SPX 60-min chart: Link

NDX shows the same potential as DOW and SPX. Notice how the decline stopped at the top of a parallel channel based off the two lows in June. This is very common. Now we'll see if it stair-steps lower, as per the bearish wave count, or starts another 3-wave rally to a new high from here. If NDX bounces from here, or from a little lower, and then turns back down below 1960 you can see how a H&S top would form. NDX 120-min chart: Link

The two high flyers I've been following, CME and GOOG, certainly had set up great shorting opportunities. I had suggested a short on CME when it tagged 590 after hitting its upside Fib projection and broken uptrend line from April 2005. Now watch for support near the current level--50-dma near 545, the uptrend line from May near 543 and the 200-dma just under 540. A bounce from this area should set up the next great shorting opportunity. CME daily chart: Link

Lastly, I had recommended a short on GOOG when it tagged its Fib projection at 554.19 and should stair-step lower as well. It takes a break below 492 to confirm the upside is finished and assuming this drops lower, look for support at its uptrend line from April 2006, currently near 485. GOOG daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:14:04 PM

QQQQ 5-minute interval chart (this week's WEEKLY Pivot retracement) Link

If you're trading NQ, you want to use its REGULAR session high/low/close so your pivots match the "cash" QQQQ.

Right? Right!

On Thursday, July 12, the QQQQ broke above its MONTHLY R2 ($48.99)

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:06:43 PM

Ooooo ... anyone sell the QQQQ/NQ at WEEKLY Pivot today?

OI Technical Staff : 7/24/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 9:57:14 PM

QQQQ Pivot Trader recap from Friday Link

We ENVISIONED Friday's trade Thursday night, simply thinking like a computer. Had a pretty good idea QQQQ would trade $49.79, but not overly confident further weakness from there. QQQQ did recapture its $50.00 strike by July's expiration close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 9:39:37 PM

YM traders can do what we did last Thursday evening with the QQQQ Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 9:38:27 PM

YM Pivot Matrix for tomorrow Link

Good correlations at 13,850 and 14,060. "Sloppy" near-term (DAILY/WEEKLY) from 13,731-13,748.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 9:21:10 PM

YM day trader's recap (all sessions turned on) Link

CBOT gives all session high, low, and close, as well as settlement. Use REGULAR session high, low and CBOT's CLOSE to get as close to Dow Diamonds (DIA) as possible. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 5:44:25 PM

And today we nip away at some JNJ.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 5:43:49 PM

INDU 13,716.95 -1.62% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 5:36:46 PM

For those that have attended my futures day trading courses, I will be using the "ER" in place of QCharts' "MR" for Russell futures.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 5:34:24 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

BIX and BKX CLOSE at 52-week lows as does DJUSHB.

RUT.X, or ER futures are WEAKEST relative to SPX, or ES futures. Get "narrower" (100 stocks) and NDX, or NQ, then OEX. "Narrower" yet (30 stocks) in INDU, or YM.

07/09/07 Market Wrap Link

07/16/07 Market Wrap Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 5:15:59 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Today's 352 New Lows at the big board far exceeding the 144 from 6/12/07.

NASDAQ's 288 more than Friday's 209 and 5/15/07's 123.

On the alert yesterday after Friday's (see Monday's MM 02:06:51) RUT.X printed 143 new lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 4:42:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

July Trade Blotter of CLOSED Trades at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 4:19:30 PM

Set that last YM short stop a little too tight didn't I? Oooooeee!

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 4:10:47 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $69.25 -3.47% Link ... jumps to $73.87 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 4:05:31 PM

Q3'07 Collar/Circuit-Breaker Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 3:55:18 PM

Both the DOW and NAZ are now testing their respective supports. I think we will get a bounce tomorrow but it remains to be seen if these support levels will continue to hold. I suspect they will. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 3:51:23 PM

Should have noted program trading collars in place.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 3:44:58 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) alert! 365.34 -3.15% ... 6/23/06 relative low close was 366.05.

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 3:43:51 PM

The banks (BIX) have been sold hard today (and the brokers (XBD) even harder)--dropping below the bottom of its down-channel shows how price has accelerated in its 3rd of a 3rd wave down. That's one indication that the wave count is correct. Link

At this rate the market is going to sell off into the close and will clearly be oversold so a bounce could happen at any time. But trying to buy the dip could be just as dangerous now as trying to short the rallies has been.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 3:42:45 PM

DOW is now testing its support at 13700. A close below this support should start to really worry the bulls. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 3:36:51 PM

Dow breadth negative at 26:4.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 3:36:15 PM

JNJ $61.52 -0.77% ... moves to #10 weighting in INDU/DIA/YM.

AXP $61.49 -4.91% ... slips to #11.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 3:33:06 PM

Swallowed hard this morning when I heard "Greenspan" in the MM. Has tended to ignite rebounds over the years.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 3:32:02 PM

XLF might have another whack-it on a rally in it too ... $36.50-ish?

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 3:30:19 PM

Countrywide (CFC) $30.07 -11.71% ... taken out behind the shed!

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 3:24:31 PM

We should get a bounce now and so here's the setup on SPX. Looking for a bounce back up to retest its broken uptrend line from the end of June over the next day or two and near 1534 ideally, and then get short for the next ride down, which should be a doozy. The bullish count says we'll start a new rally which I find hard to believe at this point. There's been a lot of damage to the bulls today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 3:20:35 PM

From Thursday's MM @ 1:44:42, I'm selling 1/2 position of a 3/4 position in the UltraShort Russell2000 (AMEX:TWM) here at $65.89.

Holding 1/4 position, but look for a Russell bounce for re-entry.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 3:15:15 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 3:11:16 PM

SPX is now approaching potential support at 1515. The move down today has done real damage to the possible bullish wave count. I'm definitely leaning towards the bearish side after this. We just might have seen THE high for this bull market.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 3:09:31 PM

XLF alert! $34.50

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 3:05:19 PM

Well I expected the RUT support at 820 would not hold but I do expect the DOW support to hold. The DOW is our canary in the mine. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 3:02:35 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 2:50:51 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

CLOSED OUT the remaining XLF-TK today as XLF near's initial target of $34.50.

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 2:48:52 PM

In fact I should add "MOAP II" at the top of the bounce to the broken uptrend line at SPX 1534 since the setup there could actually be even better than MOAP I (in case you missed shorting yesterday's rally).

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 2:45:51 PM

Sticking with the SPX here, another possibility is that we're getting ready for another 2nd wave bounce (2nd wave of wave-3 for the bearish wave count) that could take it back up for a retest of its broken uptrend line from June 27th, and where it intersects the downtrend line from last Thursday, near 1534. Link

If SPX drops down closer to the uptrend line from March, currently near 1515 (which it may do now that it's breaking down again), then a bounce back up to the 1534 area for a 2nd wave correction would be an even better MOAP since the next move would be a 3rd of a 3rd leg down and will be a screamer of a move.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 2:19:24 PM

YM 13,867 alert!

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 2:18:08 PM

The Russell 2000 is testing its support at 820 and now so is the DAX testing its support at the infamous upward blue trendline, which just happens to be the 50EMA as well. Link

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 2:14:42 PM

What the bulls want to see happen here is a brief throw-under the potential descending wedge and then a pop back up into the pattern (for a buy signal). The bears want to see it sail right on through and keep heading south. SPX 1524 is an important level here. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 2:06:51 PM

Feels like the bulls have given up the ghost. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 2:05:46 PM

DAX daily jtHMA turned red ages ago. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 2:05:28 PM

YM 13,881 ... gone

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 2:04:55 PM

MID Caps daily jtHMA have turned red. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 2:04:10 PM

SPX jtHMA daily charts have not turned red either. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 1:59:40 PM

YM short stop alert 13,906

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 1:57:12 PM

YM short lower stop alert to 13,906.

YM 13,896

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 1:52:15 PM

YM short lower stop alert to 13,915.

YM 13,890

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 1:49:14 PM

Yesterday I showed the jtHMA charts of the $RUT (Russell 2000 cash index) and the daily/120 minute/60 minute charts were all red but as you can see the DOW cash index daily has not yet turned red. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 1:46:55 PM

YM short lower stop alert ... to 13,935.

YM 13,911

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 1:45:16 PM

VIX 17.71 +5.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 1:44:06 PM

Swing trade put close out alert! ... for the Financial Select SPDRs XLF Aug $37 Put (XLF-TK) at the bid of $2.15.

XLF $34.86 -1.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 1:18:42 PM

Still looks like a "trend day lower" to me.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 1:16:35 PM

YM short alert here at 13,920. Stop it 13,943. Target 13,867.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 1:14:16 PM

I don't know about you and Jane, but the ER/MR doesn't have the bullish fight in it as the other equity futures contracts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 1:12:51 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 1:02:06 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 12:56:39 PM

YM 13,939 ... "no-man's land"

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 12:56:32 PM

Just to add to Jane's response on the symbols, note that those are for the e-mini futures contracts (as opposed to the full size contracts), which is what we follow on the Market Monitor. The other futures contract symbols you'll see us use are YG for gold (full size is GC), YI for silver (SI for full size), QM for oil (CL for full size). Any others that we use will usually be defined at the time we use them.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 12:54:37 PM

Now as far as abbreviations are concerned I will use PDL, PDH and PDR. This stands for Previous Day Low, Previous Day High and Previous Day Range.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 12:51:55 PM

Hello, I am new to the monitor and noticed that all of you are using abbreviations that I am not familiar with. Here are just a few I noticed from today:


Can someone please email me back and shine some light in the monitor today. Also, if there any other frequently used abbreviations that I have not covered....

I just got this email from a user about the abbreviations we use. You are getting new users all the time and I think it is a very good idea to review the symbols we use, which are not abbreviations

ER2 is the symbol for the Russell 2000 futures. It seems like each charting platform uses a different symbol so we have standardized here in the monitor to just ER

ES is the symbol for the S&P futures and I have never seen a charting platform that uses a different symbol.

YM is the symbol for the DOW futures. Also here I have never seen a charting platform that uses a different symbol.

NQ is the symbol for the NDX and to tell you the truth I don't trade this market enough to know how most charting platforms symbolize it but I have never seen anything but NQ so far.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 12:47:45 PM

Swing trade put lower stop alert on the Financial Select SPRDs XLF Aug $37 Put (XLF-TK) to $35.10.

XLF $35.01.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 12:44:28 PM

Gett'n some green on the screen in US Market Watch ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 12:42:50 PM

I'm showing yesterday's YM regular session low as 13,965. I'm showing today's regular session high has 13,975. This recent rise to, to, to ... 13,965.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 12:41:27 PM

I'm showing yesterday's DIA low as $138.81. I'm showing today's DIA high as $138.81.

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 12:41:12 PM

If the bounce off the early morning low is going to be just a 3-wave correction to the decline, watch for two equal legs up at DOW 13906 and SPX 1536.39 (YM 13973 and ES 1545) to end the bounce. That would also be close to a 50% move into ES's gap down so anything higher than that would be more bullish and likely lead to at least gap closure.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 12:37:58 PM

The "best" short in the YM was that 11:00 bounce to DAILY S1 13,962. Still could have gotten a fill at 13,965 but didn't (I was using incorrect daily pivot levels). Then when low wasn't taken out (either short below DAILY S2/WEEKLY 13,921) lower stop to 13,943 (from 13,962) for an actual profit.

Much tougher for day trader now with a LOSS under our belt.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 12:29:04 PM

YM 13,950 now ... 5-minute interval chart with MONTHLY/WEEKLY/DAILY pivot level (regular session and closes) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 12:25:24 PM

YM short stopped alert 13,943

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 12:11:37 PM

YM short alert ... here at 13,908. Stop 13,943, target 13,855

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 11:55:34 AM

Hints of bullish divergence at the test of today's lows here.

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 11:45:30 AM

Even the miserable looking pattern on the RUT starts to make more sense if I apply the same kind of wave count to it as I just showed for SPX. If it's in some kind of ending diagonal pattern for the move from the end of June, where each of the 5-waves is a 3-wave move (or a-b-c-d-e for the 4th wave), then today's pullback could actually be finishing the correction and we'll get another rally leg started soon to finish off the whole thing (green bullish count): Link

It's too early to tell if this is what we'll see happen but the possibility is real enough to warrant trading this market and not getting married to either side.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:45:06 AM

VIX.X 17.96 +6.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:44:43 AM

VXO.X 17.90 +8.15% ... stay in the money on calls.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:43:57 AM

Disclosure: I currently hold bullish position in JNJ.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:43:18 AM

No stop on the JNJ-JL for now. Target $69.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:42:00 AM

Swing trade long call option alert ... for one (1) of the Johnson & Johnson JNJ Oct $60 Calls (JNJ-JL) at the offer of $3.30.

JNJ $61.81 -0.30% ...

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 11:33:40 AM

Following up on my discussion about a potential 5th wave to go yet on SPX, this updated 60-min chart shows how it might look (green bullish wave count): Link

Again, this is shown to keep the bears on their toes here. Don't take anything for granted. Today's decline definitely gives this market a bearish tone but if it's a c-wave in wave-4 on the above chart, it will always look very bearish, until it turns sharply upward.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:29:09 AM

Was using some "flawed" levels this morning ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:27:45 AM

Yesterday's YM high/low/close (regular session) was 14,045/13,965/14,000.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:27:02 AM

YM 13,922 ... probes DAILY S2 again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:26:26 AM

YM 13,922 ... came close on short, but not close enough. Morning bounce came to 13,962 and DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:20:58 AM

Boeing (BA) $104.62 +0.55% ... that's a new 52-weeker.

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 11:18:42 AM

I saw your wave count showing the possibility of this being wave-4 on the SPX. Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the 4th wave could not violate the 1st wave in the count. If it does then the wave count is wrong?

Good eye Scott. The only way it can overlap is if the larger 5-wave move up from June 27th is is triangle of some kind, be it an ascending wedge or expanding triangle. Do you see the move up from June 27th to July 9th? It looks suspiciously like a 3-wave move and that could mean it was the start of some kind of triangle pattern for the ending 5th wave in the rally from March (which started from the June 27th low).

I'm not sure how to count the move up from July 11th in this case but if it's a 3-wave move up to the July 19th high (with a truncated finish) then that would be the end of the 3rd wave and the current drop is a 3-wave decline for wave-4 (and can and usually does overlap the 1st wave in a triangle pattern). It's a very funky wave count and I can't say I like it but I mention it as a possibility to make sure everyone is aware that we may not be done with the rally yet.

As I showed in last night's Market Wrap, the OEX chart supports the idea that we have not yet seen the final 5th wave of the rally from the end of June: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:12:11 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 11:02:12 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:57:44 AM

Stopped at 827.60.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:55:32 AM

NQ and YM are hitting resistance at their PDLs. I think those PDLs will hold, at least the internals are telling me they will. Link

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 10:54:38 AM

If the move down from yesterday's high is to become an impulsive move then the current bounce should be the 4th wave correction and we'll get another leg down as the 5th wave (for the move down from yesterday's high). The current bounce should not get much larger than it currently is for this bearish interpretation. If it keeps heading up then the bullish pattern (this morning's drop finishing the descending wedge on SPX) will start to gain strength.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:53:18 AM

Short from 825.80 and the stop is 827.60 alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:52:40 AM

YM short cancel order alert ... with YM 13,951

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:47:05 AM

ER is overbot and my trade I profiled at 10:45 is a short reversal. I will stick with the 13 tick profit because the internals are bearish and if this market turns around it should turn with a vengence.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:45:10 AM

ER short at 825.80 alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:41:26 AM

For those new to the MM, my YM shorts are for one (1) contract unless specified otherwise.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:40:52 AM

YM short setup alert ... with YM 13,943 ... look to go short a trade at 13,965. Stop 13,996, target 13,860.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:35:50 AM

Wilshire 5000's chart is very similar to the SPX and it could find support at its 50EMA or the swing low from July 11th. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:34:09 AM

The NAZ support is obvious at 2630-2650 area and if the NAZ does test this support the RUT will surely break its support first. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:31:04 AM

It is kind of hard to determine where support is on the SPX chart other than the very obvious 1480-1485 area. I don't believe the SPX will get down that low so support may be the 50EMA Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:28:09 AM

My goodness the Russell 2000 is testing its support at 820. Will it hold? I believe it may break this support but the breach will not have follow-through for the large caps are not yet testing their support and I think their support will hold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:26:17 AM

"Thorn in the side" of Murdoch....

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:25:20 AM

Jane ... That may be Brad Greenspan (Internet entrepreneur) going after Dow Jones (DJ) $53.74 -1.73% ...

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:24:37 AM

The bears certainly have the ball this morning. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:20:05 AM

The headline on my 10:17 post from Marketwatch was "Greenspan slumps to new lows." Too funny!

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:19:58 AM


DJ- Soft drinks maker earns $1.56 billion, or 94c a share, beating expectations of 89c. Revenue climbs 10% to $9.6 billion, reflecting strong Frito-Lay unit and international sales. Firm raises full-year guidance to $3.35 a share. Shares slip 1%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:19:31 AM


DJ- Private equity firm will acquire Ryerson's common stock for $34.50 a share, a 15% premium to the Feb. 13 closing price, one day before the Chicago metals processor said it would explore strategic alternatives.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:19:01 AM


DJ- Pittsburgh company's 2Q net falls to $302 million, or $2.54 a share, from $404 million, or $3.22 a share, a year earlier, as results are hurt by charge and lower sales. Meanwhile, AK Steel 2Q earnings more than triple to $109.9 million, or 98 cents.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:18:11 AM


DJ- Parent of United Airlines posts net income of $274 million, or $1.83 a share, on record revenue of $5.21 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $1.39. JetBlue's net climbs to $21 million, or 11c a share, a penny below expectations.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 10:17:45 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell to a fresh all-time low against the euro and a 26-year trough against the British pound early Tuesday, on heightened fears that the troubled housing market will hurt the broader U.S. economy and potentially press the Federal Reserve into action.

The greenback also dropped to its lowest level in 18 years against the Australian dollar and a ten-week low against Japan's yen. The U.S. Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of the world's major currencies, tumbled to a fresh 15-year low at 80.015.

"Investors are concerned that the mess in the U.S. subprime-mortgage market will become more contagious," said Ryan Sweet, economist at Moody's Economy.com. "Interest-rate differentials are also moving against the dollar, as the Fed keeps its target rate on hold for while other major central banks are tightening."

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:17:42 AM


DJ- U.S. chain store sales rise 0.5% on month in first two weeks of July, says Redbook Research. Results are in line with target. Meanwhile, ICSC-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales Index declines by 0.2%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:17:07 AM


DJ- Oil major's net profit rises 1.5% to $7.38 billion, or 38.2c a share, despite persistent refining woes and flat oil prices and driven by a gain on the sale of business and fixed assets. Revenue is nearly unchanged at $73.1 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:16:18 AM


DJ- Lockheed's 2Q net surges 34% to $778 million, or $1.82 a share, which includes a 4c gain. Revenue rises 7% to $10.7 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $1.53 a share. Northrop's net rises 7%. Lockheed shares rise 3%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:15:39 AM


DJ- Shares fall more than 4% a day after Texas Instruments earns $610 million, or 42c a share, amid lower demand for its chips. Sales fall 7% to $3.42 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 42c on revenue of $3.4 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:15:14 AM


DJ- Biotechnology company earns $186.1 million, or 54c a share, following strong sales of two key drugs and the lack of acquisition charges that resulted in a loss a year ago. Revenue rises 17% to $773.2 million.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:14:47 AM


DJ- Railway operator posts 2Q net of $433 million, or $1.20 a share, on higher fuel expenses and lower demand for construction products. Analysts expected EPS of $1.22. Meanwhile, Canadian Pacific posts a 9% gain in operating income.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:13:56 AM


DJ- Chemical maker's net income slips less than 1% to $972 million, or $1.04 a share, as year-ago aided by 3c-a-share gain. Wall Street expected EPS of $1.06. Net sales rise 5.8% to $7.88 billion amid 1% rise in volumes. Shares fall 3%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:13:16 AM


DJ- Fast-food giant posts loss of $711.7 million, or 60c a share, compared with net income of $834.1 million a year earlier. On adjusted basis, earnings from continuing operations rise to 71c a share as sales add 12% to $6 billion. Shares fall 1%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:12:44 AM


DJ- Shares slide 8% as home lender's 2Q profit falls to $485 million, or 81c a share, while revenue slips 15% to $2.55 billion. Countrywide again slashes its 2007 outlook on expectations of 'increasingly challenging' housing and mortgage markets.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:12:19 AM


DJ- AT&T earns $2.9 billion, or 47c a share, as revenue surges 87% to $29.48 billion, amid recent acquisitions. It activates 146,000 iPhone subscribers in the last two days of the quarter, 40% of whom are new AT&T Wireless customers. Still some analysts expected a much higher number, sending AT&T's shares down 1% and Apple's tumbling 5%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:10:26 AM

RUT.X 819.71 -1.90% Link ... O gets 3 squares today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:07:40 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 10:02:07 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 9:59:38 AM

SPX is struggling to hold onto its uptrend line from June 27th, near 1529. There is one bullish possibility that I see in its pattern and that is a descending wedge for a corrective pullback from the June high, the bottom of which is near 1525. I mention this possibility because if it's true then we're due a strong rally out of this. Link

Yesterday's bounce could in fact be the MOAP opportunity (Mother of All Puts) so bears should be short against yesterday's high. Just don't be afraid to trim some profits off the table now and then until we get some confirmation that we've seen THE high (with some impulsive price action to the downside and broken uptrend lines with failed retests). It's still early to making a strong bearish call here.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:59:06 AM

Dang it stopped. I got to within 2 ticks of profit twice yesterday and then stopped. Need to rethink my profit target or my stops.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:57:52 AM

828.20 + 1.3 = 829.50 and we just got to 829.30 so the stop is now at 827.80. 4 ticks at risk

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:57:02 AM

Let's raise the stop to 826.80

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:55:25 AM

Triggered long at 828.20. STop is 826.3

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:54:48 AM

I think the DOW needs to revisit resistance turned support at 13700 and if it holds then we will know how strong the bulls are. I think the bulls are just tired now and when/if the DOW does test this support I think it will hold. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:51:32 AM

Reached a high of 827.90 and then retreated.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2007 9:50:27 AM

CME and CBOT Q2 Earnings Press Release Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:46:50 AM

If we get triggered on the long at 828.20 the stop will be 826.30.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:45:38 AM

YOu can enter the long now at 828.20 but be nimble on this trade. alert

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:43:00 AM

ER is very oversold and we could consider a long reversal. If you want to try it I see a long at 848.60.

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 9:40:36 AM

SPX has now dropped below Friday's low. This could turn ugly.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:39:08 AM

TRIN above 1.00 at 1.13 and climbing.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:38:40 AM

I have no VIX again today. What is with this not getting a VIX in the morning.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:37:35 AM

AD line is a very bearish -1556

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 9:33:50 AM

The DOW has dropped down to its uptrend line from July 11th through Friday's low, near 13870. SPX is a little lower near 1530.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:17:55 AM

Crude is falling and the US $ is falling and those two are having an pull/push affect on Gold. Unfortunately though my Gold chart is all messed up and it is hard to tell what it is doing. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2007 9:09:55 AM

Who let the bears out!

Gee the bulls were grumpy overnight and let the bears have their way. Funny though as bearish as it looks YM has only tagged its PDL. Link

Keene Little : 7/24/2007 9:02:46 AM

YM has now closed yesterday's gap up (ES as well) but the large gap down this morning is looking bearish in the larger pattern. The one caution is that the final leg up in the rally from March could be a very choppy one with beaucoup whipsaws. The key levels for the bears for the DOW and SPX are Friday's lows--if they get taken out then the bears are in control.

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