Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Keene Little : 7/25/2007 10:30:16 PM

I like AMZN for a long term short play. It's looking like an A-B-C correction to its 2000-2001 decline could be completing after its big gap up today--it's now in the Fib target zone between 81.84 (two equal legs up from 2001) and 90.00 (78.6% retracement). Buy a couple of LEAP puts on this one and then write some front month puts along the way to work your cost basis down. The daily and weekly charts are showing big negative divergences at the current high. This is the monthly chart: Link

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 10:21:57 PM

CME may find support at its uptrend line from May and could set up a bigger bounce before letting go to the downside: Link But for now you can see the nice down-channel on this 60-min chart--stick with the trend until it breaks: Link

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 10:19:13 PM

GOOG has been consolidating in a nice sideways triangle pattern since its big gap down last Friday and looks ready to break down again and it could be early tomorrow. It may not drop far though, perhaps down to about 500, before bouncing a little stronger and setting up the next decline. This daily chart shows a potential price path over the next couple of weeks. But the sellers could drive this right down to the uptrend line from August 2006, near 486, sooner rather than later. Link

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 10:03:51 PM

e-mini futures contracts you'll see traded on the Monitor and the current front month:
DOW 30 (YM), September
S&P 500 (ES), September
Nasdaq 100 (NQ), September
Russell 2000 (ER--may be different on your charts), September
10-year Note (ZN), September
30-year Bond (ZB), September
Gold (YG), August
Silver (YI), September
Oil (QM), September

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 10:02:59 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Today's consolidation looks bearish when you look at the market internals and not the price of the indices. It was weak and therefore looks like we'll get another leg down. Here's are the charts used in tonight's Wrap:
DOW 30-min: Link
SPX 30-min: Link
NDX 120-min: Link
RUT daily: Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/25/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 7:23:29 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 7:01:10 PM

Lowest post-profile has been $147.11.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:59:55 PM

AAPL $148.01 x $148.10

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:59:23 PM

Day trade extended short cover alert ... for AAPL at ... $148.10

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:47:11 PM

AAPL $147.80 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:46:59 PM

Day trade extend short lower stop alert for AAPL to $148.40.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:43:12 PM

AAPL $147.59 ... be ready.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:36:17 PM

Listening to Jimmy C ... holding breath that AAPL caller doesn't call in.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:35:03 PM

AAPL $148.10

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:34:51 PM

Day trade extended lower stop alert for AAPL to $149.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:28:29 PM

Day trade extended raise target alert for AAPL short to $146.75.

About 90 minutes left in extended session trade.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:15:47 PM

AAPL $148.90 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:13:51 PM

Day trade extended lower stop alert ... for AAPL to $150.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 6:05:54 PM

AAPL 5-minute extended. Slapped a PINK "dynamic" on it Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:58:52 PM

Day trade short triggered alert ... AAPL $149.40

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:51:44 PM

Day trade short setup alert ... for 1/2 position in APPL $150.00 ... IF it trades $149.40. Stop goes $151. Target $144.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:49:13 PM

AAPL did trade MONTHLY R2 for a couple of seconds extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:48:10 PM

No help there ... AAPL's MONTHLY R2 was $133.89.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:44:51 PM

Didn't have monthly's run on AAPL.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:43:54 PM

$150 ... see 4:49:06

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:43:04 PM

AAPL $149.47 ... WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:34:44 PM

WKLY R2 at $149.40.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:34:24 PM

AAPL $146.61 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:31:58 PM

QQQQ $49.62 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:31:34 PM

AAPL $145.90 ... nearing WEEKLY R1 $146.61.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:23:18 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:16:18 PM

Juuuuust under WKLY S1

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:15:55 PM

QQQQ $49.52 extended

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:14:27 PM

AAPL probes WEEKLY Pivot ($141.32)

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 5:01:07 PM

AAPL $135.00 extended. High/Low post-halt extended has been $140.10/$129.00

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:59:06 PM

September Unleaded (rb07u) settled up $0.0425, or +2.09% at $2.0725.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:58:16 PM

September Crude Oil (cl07u) settled up $2.32, or +3.15% at $75.88.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:57:33 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:51:01 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) ... released for trade. $130.00

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:49:45 PM

Don't try and trade this in extended ... can move $27 per share in matter of seconds.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:49:06 PM

AAPL's Level II Inet Link ... not yet release for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:46:38 PM

Yes ... bids $150 ... offers $127

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:46:16 PM

AAPL ... hold onto your hats ... BIDS $145 and offers $132.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:41:55 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) Link slated for trade at 04:50 PM EDT.

Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:38:00 PM

SPY $151.61 +0.20% ... trades $151.31 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:37:30 PM

QQQQ $49.40 +0.14% ... trades $49.26 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:36:23 PM

Newport (NEWP) $15.37 -0.45% ... halted for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:35:44 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $137.26 +1.75% ... halted for earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:33:59 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) at this Link

RUT.X's 4-point box chart Link (O is supply, X is demand) Both are measured in continual motion, unlike a bar chart that views each day's action. It would currently take a trade at 816 for the RUT.X's chart to reverse back up into X.

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 4:16:45 PM

With the slightly larger bounce this afternoon we could be closer to finishing the larger 4th wave correction and instead of a sideways triangle consolidation that I had shown earlier for the DOW (2:11), this SPX 30-min chart shows we could get a little higher tomorrow morning that sets up the 5th wave down into a Friday low (and then rally early next week). Link

So either a sideways correction that takes a little longer or else finish the correction tomorrow morning. In either case I think we have a little lower to go, perhaps SPX 1498, before setting up a tradeable rally back up to about 1526 for a 50% retracement from a 1498 low.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:16:06 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) ... I'll drag up the 0% to the 7/13/07 high close, but 1-point, 1-point above the 6/04/07 close? Now some sign (one day) of resistance at 19.1%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 4:11:42 PM

Jane ... what do you make of today's RUT.X action. Relative to recent comments regarding CLOSES?

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:56:09 PM

YM 13,848

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:54:59 PM

To be truthful, last night, and then this morning, I thought the YM would backfill about 1/2 of its gap, then make a move higher to DAILY R1, then settle back near 13,866.

Similar, but mirror image Friday's QQQQ action.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:53:03 PM

Any guesses where the YM goes out?

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:42:45 PM

INDU 13,767.51 +0.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:42:27 PM

NDX 2,007.34 +0.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:42:12 PM

OEX 705.10 +0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:41:48 PM

SPX 1,515.54 +0.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:41:28 PM

RUT.X 811.20 -0.08% ... slips back red.

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 3:38:43 PM

All of today's price action fits within the category of consolidation near the lows. As such it points to lower lows before getting a bigger bounce. The current bounce could get a little higher but doesn't have to. Another down-up sequence tomorrow could set up another leg down to new lows.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 3:26:07 PM

Midcaps revisited their support today and I see that it held as well. we had lots of support holding today. However, it remains to be seen if they will continue to hold but I suspect they will. The selling we saw this week was nothing more than a market correction. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:24:05 PM

All majors in the green.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 3:22:29 PM

Here is jtHMA spreadsheet. We could be getting a buy signal on most of the major markets real soon. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:21:08 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:15:36 PM

YM 13,867 ...

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 3:05:04 PM

DOW's support hung on by its chinny chin chin. I would not be surprised to see it back to new yearly highs soon. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:02:58 PM

Nice buy program kicking in.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 3:02:42 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 3:02:58 PM

TICKS reach +800 for the first time since Monday. I think the bulls are back. OK I have been saying that a bunch today but this time I think I am right. :)

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:58:51 PM

SPY $151.13 -0.11% ... juuuuust under its WEEKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:56:29 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) down 4 basis points at 4.902%. Session low has been juuuuust above WEEKLY Pivot 48.91, or 4.891%)

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:53:21 PM

Hmmm ... not much interest in Chrysler deal, but a hunger for Treasuries ...

No inflation? Defensive, flight to quality?

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:52:03 PM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) down 3.2 basis points at 5.030%. Threatens a closing yield below 38.2% retracement of 12/01/06 low yield close and 6/12/07 high yield close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:47:20 PM

Permian Basin Trust (PBT) $14.39 +1.62% ... could be a VERY IMPORTANT report tomorrow and EIA's weekly Nat. Gas Storage.

Oil prices have been strengthening, but nat gas prices weakening.

"Top comes off" on a bullish nat gas report.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:38:53 PM

Monster Worldwide (MNST) $38.58 -2.30% ... has slipped below 80.9% ($38.98) retracement of 09/27/06 low close to recent 2/16/07 high close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:34:38 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Stopped out of the 1/4 position ($10k=full) at $4.85.

SOLD NAKED one (1) of the MAN-HR when MAN was trading $86.79 (just more than 3/4 position $10k=Full).

Went long one (1) of the SFB-UR when the SPY was trading $150.91.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:15:36 PM

OTC 30-Week SMA Bullish % (30OTC) ... at last night's close, 49.01% of the NASDAQ-listed stocks were above their 150-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:14:20 PM

NYSE 30-Week SMA Bullish % (30NYSE) at last night's close, 55.08% of the NYSE-listed stocks were above their 150-day SMA.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 2:11:21 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- While most regions of the country continued to enjoy moderate growth, there were signs of softening in a few districts, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its occasional Beige Book report on the economy. Fed districts banks in Kansas City and Dallas reported decelerating growth, while Boston and Atlanta said conditions were "mixed." On the other hand, seven regions reported "modest" or "moderate" growth, while only Philadelphia reported "improved" conditions. The tenor of the report suggests that the economy is not especially robust at the start of the second half of the year.

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 2:11:02 PM

Looking at the DOW, I've assumed for the moment that it too will get another minor new low today as part of a descending wedge (similar to the SPX 30-min chart I posted at 1:31). I'm then speculating what kind of larger 4th wave consolidation we'll get before the 5th wave down to a new low early next week, with a downside target near 13500, as shown on this 60-min chart:

From there I'm showing how I come up with the projected price paths based on Fib relationships between the waves and retracements. The low next week, as I've projected it, will be the 1st wave down in a larger decline. The 2nd wave correction typically retraces about 50% of the 1st wave in about 62% of the time it took for the 1st wave. That's what I'm showing on this chart. By the way, these wave relationships can be found in an excellent database at elliottician.com.

Once the 2nd wave correction finishes, which I've projected to about 13750 on August 6th, we should then start a very strong selloff in the 3rd wave. So that would be a MOAP at the top of the 2nd wave (and hopefully a nice retest of the broken uptrend line from March, which "coincidentally" crossed that 50% retracement and 62% time intersection without my planning to use it). This is of course all speculation at this point but it's based on the EW pattern and Fib relationships. Now we'll watch to see how it progresses against this. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:07:13 PM

Fed Beige Book (Prior to 7/16/07) Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 2:03:36 PM

If NQ tests support at its PDL again I'm not sure it will hold. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:03:22 PM

If CREDIT markets tightening, then tough for companies to fund growth of operations. Alternative is cash on hand, or secondary offerings of STOCK.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 2:01:59 PM

The Chrysler bond offering is/was going to be the BIGGEST story observed this month. Investors obviously not willing to provide LIQUIDITY for DEBT.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 1:53:58 PM

RUT.X 804.75 -0.87% ... almost forgot. Has slipped below its rising 150-day SMA (814.58), probes its 200-day SMA (804)

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 1:51:16 PM

SPX 1,508.07 -0.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 1:50:10 PM

VIX 19.95 +2.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 1:49:45 PM

Swing trade put alert ... for one (1) of the S&P Depository Receipts SPY Sep $148 Puts (SFB-UR) at the offer of $2.95.

SPY $150.91 -0.25% ... No stop for now. Target $146.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 1:43:43 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.85 -0.10% ... benchmark.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 1:43:16 PM

Alert! Banks Postpone Chyrsler Funding Plan ... AP Story Link

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 1:31:05 PM

If we're just consolidating, which I think we are, this test of the low should be a good scalp long play (might go a tad lower still so look for evidence of bottoming such as bullish divergences on the shorter term charts. But if it continues to chop its way lower then it will probably form a small descending wedge for the 5th wave of wave-3. In this case we could be looking at SPX 1500 before getting a slightly larger bounce. This pattern suggests selling into the end of the month. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 1:30:57 PM

ER to new daily lows and YM is right on the its heels testing new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 1:30:09 PM

01:10 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 1:13:11 PM

01:10 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 1:06:34 PM

VIX.X 18.66 +0.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 1:06:15 PM

Swing trade sell NAKED call alert ... sell one (1) of the Manpower MAN Aug $90 Calls (MAN-HR) at the bid of $1.15. $1.15 x $1.35.

MAN $86.79 -2.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 12:59:50 PM

sun of a gun ... MAN -2.05% ...

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 12:56:03 PM

Big bounce in the dollar today. The 60-min chart looks like Neo shooting up into the sky as he blasted up through all his attackers. The daily chart shows the high today met resistance at the bottom of its descending wedge pattern. The short term pattern calls for another attempt at the high then a pullback and then bust a move back up to the upside and start a serious rally in the dollar. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 12:49:56 PM

VIX 18.51 -0.16% ... March's MONTHLY Pivot Levels were 5.40, 10.41, Piv= 14.71, 19.72, 24.02.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 12:43:20 PM

S&P 500 (SPX) daily interval chart with MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 12:42:45 PM

Looks like my initial call for a consolidation day today is turning out to be what we're going to get. After what could have been a quick 4th wave correction with this morning's bounce, it's possible we then got a quick 5th wave down (for the move down from Monday's high) to the new low to complete wave-3 in the count for the move down from last Thursday. With that interpretation it says we've started a slightly larger 4th wave correction. Bottom line? Expect chop and slop and whipsaws for another day or so. Keep your powder dry for another day. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 12:39:23 PM

Gold is down due to the rally in the US$. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 12:31:20 PM

S&P 500 (SPX) 10-point box chart Link ... BPSPX VERY SIMILAR TODAY (internal strength/weakness and RISK) as in March (3), or mid-March.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 12:27:08 PM

I predicted we would have a bullish day today. Well we started out that way but it quickly turned and the bears were able to take control however, I believe now we will see bullishness for the rest of the day. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 12:15:31 PM

I think the bottom is in for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 12:13:49 PM

S&P 500 Bullish % (BPSPX) 2% box chart at this Link

If you were to look at the 500 Point and Figure charts of the S&P 500 Components and stack them in two piles, the one pile with "buy signal" would hold 66.73%, or 334 stocks. The pile with "sell signal" would hold 33.27%, or 166 stocks.

A measure of 64% would have this market (S&P 500) achieving "bear confirmed" status.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 12:03:51 PM

SPY $151.53 +0.15% ... KNOW WHERE YOU ARE! MONTHLY Pivot holds support this morning. 5/11/07 WEEKLY bar chart "doji close" $150.86. (see 6/11/07 Market Wrap) Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 12:00:19 PM

Yesterday's Bullish % recap from our good friends at Dorsey/Wright & Assoc. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 11:55:47 AM

Bear Alert! ... Yesterday's action did see Dorsey/Wright's S&P 500 Bullish % (BPSPX) fall below 70% from above and have this broad measure of supply/demand achieve "bear alert" status.

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 11:48:18 AM

I'm an amateur, so let's make that clear from the start. But look back to Jun 12/13. Beige book came out PM of 13th, so I went back to my records and looked to see what happened then.
12th Dow down 130
13th Dow up 187.

What's even cooler, is that on the 13th, we gapped up like this morning, and spent the rest of the time until the minutes came out doing what we're doing now, gapping and crapping (or maybe one gap and a steady crap) til 2 pm. May not be an exact duplicate, but it is something to keep in mind if shorting this.

Mike, we're all amateurs if the definition of amateur is one who is constantly learning. Great observation and definitely worth passing along. Thanks.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 11:47:28 AM

Wow! ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 11:42:49 AM

NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart as of last night's closing measures (2% box size) Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 11:39:04 AM

The last time the TICKs hit +800 was at 11:35 on Monday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 11:24:57 AM

A/D lines were better than 2:1 earlier this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 11:24:27 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 11:19:18 AM

NQ's PDL has held up as support but the only market that has done so. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 11:15:43 AM

WEEKLY S1 aren't bad either ... especially above MONTHLY Pivots.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 11:13:05 AM

Oh my goodness the DAX has broken below its upward blue trendline, the first time since April 4th. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 11:11:29 AM

Usually good places to be a buyer on a Tuesday/Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 11:10:41 AM

At WEEKLY S2's Jane ...

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 11:08:34 AM

On the other hand the RUT weekly has turned red. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 11:04:33 AM

Just to give you a little perspective the DOW jtHMA daily charts have not even turned red yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 11:02:02 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 11:01:40 AM

Breaking to new lows below yesterday's could mean the 4th wave bounce (that I expected to chop up and down for a little bit) was over with just this morning's bounce. If so then we should see price drop a little lower to finish the 3rd wave down from Monday's high, followed by another larger 4th wave correction and then another new low probably by the end of the week to finish a larger degree 1st wave down. Link

As shown for SPX we could see price find support around 1502, bounce, and then drop down to firmer support around 1490. This scenario would set up a large rally next week to correct this week's decline. It would set up an even better shorting opportunity than the one on Monday (a bigger MOAP, or as Scott would say, a GMOAP for the GrandMother of All Puts).

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 10:54:11 AM

Ok ER is really oversold now and its counter trend moves can be explosive so if short I would be taking it off the table now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:51:28 AM

Who let the bears out?

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:49:04 AM

US Energy (USEG) $4.68 -5.83% ... We/I were stopped out this morning at $4.85.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 10:48:35 AM

DOW support is still holding. Link and NQ support as well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:48:02 AM

Permian Basin Trust (PBT) $14.40 +1.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:47:36 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $68.47 -3.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:46:55 AM

Crude Oil # of Days Supply edged down to 22.4 days from last week's 22.7 days.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:46:01 AM

US weekly Percent Utilization of Refinery Operably Capacity (%) rose to 91.66% from last week's 91.04%.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 10:45:33 AM

I see a bottom forming but these are telling me don't even think about been long. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:44:58 AM

US weekly Refinery Operable Capacity stood unchanged at 17.433 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:44:15 AM

US weekly Crude Oil inputs rose by 172,000 barrels/day to 15.822 million barrels/day.

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 10:44:08 AM

Amazon (AMZN) is getting lots of lovin' today. Actually it's getting a lot of hating by the shorts who've been forced to cover. With the high short interest ratio in that stock I suspect that ratio is a little lower today. It's possible that today's gap up will be the exhaustion gap in its rally from July 2006. It might stay up here for a few days or a week but then it'll be interesting to see if it gets a gap down that leaves an island reversal. That's just speculation but I see reasons to believe this will be it for its rally. Link

The long term weekly chart shows a very nice 3-wave rally off the 2001 low, with the c-wave being a nice 5-wave advance, as it should be. Two equal legs up are at 81.84 and that obviously was achieved today. A 78.6% retracement of the 2000-2001 decline is at 90.00 so I'd say AMZN is in the zone and I'd be looking at this one as a shorting candidate (now that a lot of shorts have been knocked out). After a 3-wave correction to the 2000-2001 decline it now has a long road back down.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:43:08 AM

US weekly Gross Inputs into refineries rose by 109,000 barrels/day to 15.989 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:42:26 AM

On the demand side of things ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:40:45 AM

US Heating Oil stockpiles (>500 PPM Sulfer) surged by 2.894 million barrels to 34.478 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:39:25 AM

US Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel stockpiles fell by 289K barrels to 40.665 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:38:16 AM

US Diesel (0-15 PPM Sulfer) fell by 1.588 million barrels to 65.976 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 10:37:57 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. sales of existing homes fell 3.8% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million, the lowest rate since November 2002, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday.

Sales fell 10.8% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Sales in June were down 11.4% from June 2006.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting sales in June to fall to a 5.90 million pace

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:36:50 AM

US Total Distillate stockpiles rose by 1.428 million barrels to 123.653 million barrels.

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 10:36:02 AM

Watch to see if yesterday's lows now hold since it could set up a scalp long play for another bounce back up.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:35:32 AM

US Reformulated Gasoline stockpiles fell by 1,000 barrels to 2.458 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:34:38 AM

US Total Gasoline stockpiles rose by 793,000 barrels to 204.1 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 10:34:00 AM

ER has tagged its overnight low. YM and ES are now testing that low. NQ has broken its overnight low. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:33:51 AM

US Crude Oil stockpiles fell by 1.1 million barrels to 351 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:32:22 AM

EIA weekly data being released.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:31:05 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 10:30:05 AM

No PDL has been broken yet so don't discount the bulls quite yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:29:14 AM

Dow Components ... PRICE-weighted index Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 10:26:45 AM

AD line opened at +1330 but is now +173. The bulls had the ball but they fumbled it and the bears have grabbed it and running with it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:26:10 AM

YM 13,812 ... certainly wouldn't have figured this.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:25:24 AM

Boeing (BA) $106.53 +2.63% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:23:04 AM

YM long stop alert 13,829

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:15:45 AM

YM 5-minute interval chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:04:37 AM

YM 13,850 ... bulls want to see it back above DAILY Pivot/WEEKLY S1 rather quick.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 10:02:37 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 10:01:05 AM

I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback now that closes this morning's gaps. Bouncing between yesterday's low and this morning's high could be what we're in store for.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 9:53:11 AM

YM long alert! ... here at 13,867. Stop 13,829. Target 13,921.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2007 9:36:53 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert! ... for the 1/4 position in shares of US Energy (USEG) $4.85 -2.41% ...

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 9:28:06 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Countrywide Financial Corp. reported a 33% drop in second-quarter net income on Tuesday and signaled that problems in the subprime mortgage market have spread to the highest-quality home loans.

"The story here is credit deterioration," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research report Tuesday. "Countrywide continues to suffer by its disproportionate mortgage portfolio exposure to pay-option ARMs, prime home equity loans, and California," they said.

The warning pushed Countrywide shares down more than 7%, to their lowest level in almost two years. It also weighed on the broader stock market because investors have been waiting to see if credit problems in the subprime-mortgage sector would spill over into higher-rated, or "prime" home loans.

"The company incurred increased credit-related costs in the quarter, primarily related to its investments in prime home-equity loans," CEO Angelo Mozilo said in a press release detailing Countrywide's second-quarter financial results.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 9:16:49 AM

Here is the chart of the NAZ and its support. MACD supports the bulls in this case. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 9:13:37 AM

Here is a chart of the DOW, one I showed yesterday. Both the DOW and NQ have hit very clear support and I think we will see a retracement for at least today and maybe the rest of this week. If that retracement breaks to new yearly highs then you know support held but if we make a lower high and the DOW and NQ retest support I'm not sure that support will hold again. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 9:11:33 AM

Higher highs and lows mean the trend is up and I suspect a bullish day today. I was going to blather on about how the DOW and NQ have hit support and yadda yadda yadda but I think a chart of those two markets would make that discussion much more meaningful. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 9:03:47 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Weakness in junk bonds and subprime-mortgage markets could lead to as much as a double-digit correction in U.S. stock markets, respected bond-fund manager Bill Gross warned on Tuesday.

"There's no doubt this recent upward movement in yields justifies a 5%-10% correction in stock markets," said the longtime manager of the $103.1 billion Pimco Total Return Bond Fund (PTTAX)

But he added that market prices don't always move in tandem with changing fundamental concerns about valuations between stocks and bonds. "Whether that (a stock correction) happens or not in the immediate future is subject to anyone's guess at this point," Gross said in a telephone interview following his release of a new commentary on developments in bond markets.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 9:02:12 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Amazon.com saw its second-quarter earnings more than triple on the year as sales grew and expenses were trimmed.

The online retail giant also issued forecasts for the current period and full year that came in above Wall Street's estimates.

The news sent shares soaring in premarket trading on Wednesday. The stock (AMZN) rose as much as 23% to $85.26 before the opening bell, well above Amazon's closing price on Tuesday of $69.25.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2007 8:59:26 AM

Good Morning everyone. Economic Reports to be aware of today are:

10:00a.m. June Existing Home Sales. Previous: -0.3%.

2:00p.m. Beige Book.

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 9:00:02 AM

We've got a big reversal in the metals today--after spiking up yesterday and then collapsing back down by the end of the day, gold is currently down almost $10. The US dollar is bouncing and may have finally found its bottom (after it fell to the ground).

Keene Little : 7/25/2007 8:59:40 AM

Equity futures are up nicely so we'll have to see if that carries through into the day. After a big move like yesterday it's very typical for the market to simply digest the move and consolidate for a bit. Based on the pattern of the decline that's what I'm expecting to see. I'd be surprised (wouldn't be the first time) to see a v-bottom and strong rally today. By the same token I'd be surprised to see additional strong selling.

A typical retracement for a consolidation would be about 38% of the drop from yesterday's high. That would take ES back up to 1531.75 which is about another 1.50 points above the premarket high so far. So as strong as the premarket appears to be right now, it so far falls into the typical retracement. Watch out for the chop and slop today.

Market Monitor Archives