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Keene Little : 7/30/2007 10:27:22 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

This DOW 30-min shows it made it out of the descending wedge pattern, did a quick test and then proceeded higher. If it's going to correct last week's decline then it could look something like what's depicted on this chart: Link

A 3-wave bounce up into the Fib 38%-62% retracement zone would be the short play setup. But if we're going to consolidate for a bit more and then make another low before setting up the bigger bounce then it might look like the light red wave count on this SPX 60-min chart: Link

As noted at the bottom of the SPX chart, the new low would be a move down to support at its 200-dma and uptrend line from July 2006, as shown on this daily chart: Link

NDX on the other hand shows it has already tested support and is ready to continue its bounce. Or it at least needs to continue its bounce otherwise any lower will be a break of its support at or near 1950: Link

Not much of a change to either the NDX or RUT daily charts from the ones I posted Sunday night. The RUT still shows a wave pattern that would look better with a brief consolidation followed by another low before setting up a bigger bounce (and the reason to watch for the same possibility on SPX and the DOW. Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/30/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 6:42:59 PM

YM recap of Monday's trade. 5-minute intervals. "Think Pink" right now Link

YM did trade MONTHLY R2 so some buyers lurking at MONTHLY S1 (buying back exhausted inventory). Buyers don't look overly aggressive in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 6:31:02 PM

YM Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 6:18:30 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 6:07:06 PM

Monday's YM Close and Settlement via CBOT at this Link

Monday morning at approximately 06:41 AM EDT, the YM traded a low of 13,253.

At approximately 09:43 AM EDT, YM's REGULAR SESSION low was 13,275.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 5:58:00 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/30/2007 5:15:57 PM

My question is about options. I would expect prices to soften a little as volatility drops but even in the money August calls on the QQQQ and XLF are flat at best and some even down with the market up 1%. Seems like a losing game with volatility higher here? Would appreciate your comments. Thanks

In a seminar I once took, the instructor told us about the games played by market makers as they sell calls to the unwary. They can goose the implied volatility (IV) on the call options when they suspect there will be lots of buyers of them. He said a common phrase on the floor was "this is where we crush the call buyers". As soon as the market starts to move they then deflate the IV and the value of the calls can actually drop as the underlying price rises. Be very careful of this tactic.

Keene Little : 7/30/2007 3:29:15 PM

After breaking up through the top of its descending wedge that I've been showing on its 30-min chart, the DOW retested it and is now taking off to the upside. Looking good for the rally. As the pattern develops I'll be trying to identify where it will top out in the next day or two. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 3:25:58 PM

QQQQ ... $48.70 -1.47% ... not a bank in the bunch. Juuuuuust under WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 3:25:14 PM

BIX.X 364.89 .... juuuuuust under WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 3:24:01 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 3:19:57 PM

YM long stop alert 13,419

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 3:11:44 PM

YM Long raise stop alert ... to 13,419.

YM 13,434

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 3:06:37 PM

YM 13,431 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 3:05:06 PM

BIX 363.88 +1.77% ... best levels of session.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 3:04:24 PM

YM Long trigger alert ... 13,409. Stop 13,376. Target 13,460.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 3:02:56 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:50:07 PM

VIX.X 21.63 -10.50% ... yet to trade its DAILY S1 (21.21)

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:49:24 PM

BIX.X 362.87 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:48:57 PM

YM 13,387 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:40:16 PM

European Markets: at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:31:15 PM

BIX 362.58 ... for YM long to play out, BIX must stay above DAILY Pivot!

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:30:22 PM

YM alert! ... 13,395 ... ready to go long a trade at 13,409.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:29:16 PM

YM 13,397 ... post setup low has been 13,390.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:28:11 PM

YM Long trigger adjustment alert ... should the YM traded 13,380-13,385 ... the go long is moved higher to 13,409.

Keene Little : 7/30/2007 2:20:39 PM

Finally, SPX is now up tagging the top of its descending wedge pattern near 1471. The pattern of the bounce calls for a pullback and then hopefully a break through that resistance, a retest and then head higher again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:18:19 PM

BIX.X 363.61 +1.70% ... right at its DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:16:54 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:06:29 PM

BIX 363.63 +1.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:06:09 PM

SPX 1,472.10 +0.90% ....

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:05:31 PM

VIX alert! ... 21.55 -10.83% ... probes WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:03:44 PM

I want to see YM come back and test DAILY Pivot (see BIX.X chart from 1:45:17) ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 2:01:44 PM

YM long setup alert ... let's look long the YM should it trade like this ... with YM 13,402 here, let's look long should it trade 13,380-13,385, the go long a trade at 13,402.

Stop goes 13,376, target 13,460

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:53:46 PM

Just about "going to plan" ... except DDM's trade at $90.45 this morning.

DDM $92.23 +0.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:52:50 PM

SPX 1,471.71 +0.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:51:37 PM

BIX 363.26 +1.60% ... DAILY R1 now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:47:15 PM

What is likely taking place now is VERY profitable shorts lock in some gains. They don't like the BIX.X strength and assessing upside RISK to DAILY R1, perhaps WEEKLY Pivot tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:45:59 PM

YM 13,387 ... gets a look at DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:45:17 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 10-minute interval chart with QCharts' DAILY and WEEKLY Pivot Levels turned on Link

Note: Last week's testing of WEEKLY S2. When broken to downside, rally back was sold. WEEKLY Pivot now seen as resistance, WEEKLY R1 should be FORMIDABLE resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:34:52 PM

BIX 360.94 +0.95% ... come back to test DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:28:47 PM

IWM $77.52 +1.16% ... will be looking put/short anything back near $81-$81.70.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:26:43 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.40 -1.05% ... Updated NAV on Thursday's close was $9.57. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:22:19 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:15:41 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/30/2007 1:15:21 PM

The update to the SPX 30-min chart shows it's got a little work to do to signal that it is into a larger correction of the decline and if so would typically play out as shown here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 1:02:34 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:56:52 PM

XLF $33.69 +1.01% ... DAILY Pivot here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:56:09 PM

Wachovia (WB) $48.18 +1.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:54:40 PM

OEX.X 681.71 +0.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:54:27 PM

DIA $132.98 +0.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:53:59 PM

VXO ... DAILY S1 22.41 and WEEKLY Pivot 22.10 are a test.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:53:25 PM

VXO 23.12 -7.85% ... session lows ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:43:56 PM

RUT.X 775.43 -0.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:43:41 PM

OEX 680.27 +0.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:43:21 PM

NDX 1,962.56 +0.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:43:02 PM

INDU 13,288 +0.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:42:41 PM

SPX 1,462.39 +0.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:42:26 PM

BIX 361.15 +1.01% ... session high. Takes a look above DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:41:14 PM


DJ- The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas says July production index moved to -9.7 from 14.0 in the prior month, amid renewed gains in inflation pressures. Hiring in the Dallas Fed district also cools in July.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:40:22 PM


DJ- David Graham, an FDA medical officer in the agency's office of surveillance and epidemiology, says GlaxoSmithKline's diabetes drug Avandia increases cardiovascular risks and should be pulled from the U.S. market.

GSK $49.04 -1.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:39:13 PM


DJ- American Home Mortgage shares are not open for trading after the company says banks are demanding it put up more cash after the mortgage lender wrote down the value of its loan and security portfolios. Shares sank 42% in pre-market trading.

AHM finished Friday's session at $10.47. Last tick pre-market was $6.38.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:33:55 PM

DDM's 60-minute interval chart now has 2 "doji" bars. One at the recent top of 7/19 09:30-10:30 AM and just completed bar from 11:30-12:30.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:25:38 PM

Buyers still look rather hesitant to me. Covering shorts included.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:24:37 PM

VXO 24.28 -3.22% ... DAILY Pivot at 23.81

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:24:04 PM

VIX 22.92 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:23:33 PM

BIX.X 359.78 +0.63% ... DAILY Pivot at 360.67.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:23:00 PM

SMH $38.04 +0.82% ... about only index I see above DAILY Pivot ($37.97)

Keene Little : 7/30/2007 12:20:40 PM

It's turning into a pretty boring day waiting for price to do something. I think both sides are not quite sure what to do next.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:07:16 PM


DJ- Despite lagging refinery expansion and growing demand, Wood Mackenzie suggests new biofuels, natural gas liquids, and liquefied petroleum may replace some conventional fuels, resulting in potential oversupply that depresses prices.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:06:23 PM

DJ Survey- US July Consumer Confidence Seen At 106.0

DJ- Economists look for U.S. consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board to have edged up a bit in July.

The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed Monday by Dow Jones Newswires is for a reading of 106.0 in July, up from the 105.5 level in June.

The Conference Board is due to release the July consumer confidence report at 10:00 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) on Tuesday.

"The Conference Board confidence index likely rose in July, consistent with the pattern already seen in the Michigan and Washington Post measures," said Jim O'Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Investment Research in Stamford, Conn.

He looks for a reading of 106.0 in July.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:04:44 PM

DJ Survey- US June Personal Income Seen +0.5%, PCE Seen +0.2%

DJ- Expectations are for a moderate gain in both personal income, but for a more sluggish increase in consumer spending in June.

The median estimate of 26 economists surveyed Monday by Dow Jones Newswires is for a 0.5% increase in personal income in June after a 0.4% gain, but for only a 0.2% rise in consumer spending after a 0.5% gain in May. The PCE price index is expected to have risen by 0.2% in June after a 0.5% increase in May, while excluding food and energy prices, the core index is expected to have also increased by 0.2% after a 0.1% increase in the prior month. This report will include benchmark revisions back to January 2004.

The Commerce Department is due to release its personal income and spending report for June at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) on Tuesday.

"Personal income advanced by 0.4% in May, but may have accelerated to a 0.5% rise in June," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Conn. "Given the robust payroll survey results for the month, wages and salaries could have posted a 0.6% increase. With gasoline prices slipping in June and July, real consumer spending may return to a more normal pace of growth in the summer after the anemic 1.3% annualized pace in the second quarter."

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:03:02 PM

DJ Survey- US 2Q Employment Cost Index Seen +0.9%

DJ- The employment cost index is expected to have registered a slightly faster paced increase in the second quarter.

The median estimate of 23 economists surveyed Monday by Dow Jones Newswires is for the ECI to have increased by 0.9% in the three months ended June after a 0.8% increase in the prior three months.

The Labor Department is due to release the second-quarter ECI report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) on Tuesday.

"Despite the fact that relatively tight labor market conditions have prevailed for quite some time now, the various measures of wage trends have been sending mixed signals for the past few quarters," noted Dave Greenlaw, senior economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. "The headline ECI has been drifting higher despite some moderation in the benefits component that has been helped by slowing growth in health care costs. The ECI is expected to tick up slightly relative to the first quarter advance as a result of an expected modest rebound in the benefits category."

Greenlaw and his colleagues look for a 0.9% increase in the ECI in the second quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:01:12 PM

Chicago Fed Names Charles Evans As New President, Effective September

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 12:00:01 PM


DJ- Firm quietly sets up a new program called GS Direct to make private equity investments in middle-market companies with enterprise values between $500 million and $2 billion.

GS $193.56 +0.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 11:58:54 AM


Keene Little : 7/30/2007 11:53:40 AM

Got a price pop just after making that post.

Keene Little : 7/30/2007 11:52:59 AM

Still probing for a bottom. There are some bullish divergences on the shorter term charts. But even that could change in a heartbeat if price suddenly lets go.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 11:17:46 AM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $140.27 -2.47% ... moves into its 7/25-7/26 gap.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 11:13:48 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 7/30/2007 11:13:17 AM

Watching SPX here--there's a good chance this pullback will be a test of the low. It shouldn't break to a new low so if it does don't be trying to catch falling knives.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 11:03:18 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:56:14 AM

VIX's DAILY Pivot Levels are ... 18.25, 21.21, PIV= 22.69, 25.65, 27.13.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:53:45 AM

SPX 1,462.09 +0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:53:28 AM

VIX 22.42 -7.24% ... MONTHLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:38:22 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:26:38 AM


DJ- China's central bank, continuing its modest credit tightening, moves to restrict lending by requiring banks to hold more funds in reserve. Widely anticipated increase is the 6th this year.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:24:50 AM


DJ- Meat processor reports net income of $111 million, or 31c a share, as sales rise 9% to $6.96 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 25c. Firm boosts fiscal-year earnings forecast to 82c to 92c a share from 65c to 90c.

TSN $21.58 +0.79% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:23:57 AM


DJ- Archer Daniels Midland's net income more than doubles to $954.8 million, or $1.47 a share, on $616 million in divestiture gains. Sales jump 28% to $12.21 billion.

ADM $34.15 +0.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:22:52 AM


DJ- Shares rise 3.5% after banking giant posts 1H net profit of $10.89 billion and 13.6% rise in pretax profit to $14.2 billion, on the back of a strong revenue growth across Asia and in corporate and investment banking.

HBC $92.03 +3.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:21:58 AM


DJ- Phone giant reports net income of $1.68 billion, or 58c a share, as revenue increases 6.3% to $23.3 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 58c and revenue of $23 billion. Verizon added 167,000 net new FioS TV customers during the quarter. The program cut 2Q earnings by 10c. Verizon Wireless agrees to buy Rural Cellular for $757 million.

VZ $41.25 -1.78% ...

Keene Little : 7/30/2007 10:21:12 AM

Because of the strong selloff in the futures after the cash market closed on Friday they're now up stronger. So you're going to get a little different picture depending on whether you're looking at cash vs. futures. With the quick move down in cash, and using SPX as an example, it looks like it did a quick under-throw of its descending wedge and immediately bounced back up inside the pattern. That's a buy signal so at this point I'd be long against this morning's low. A retest with a higher low should make for a good entry. At least you know where your stop needs to be.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:05:26 AM

If trying to pick a near-term bottom, I would have to think NARROW and BIG the way to go. Dow, NASDAQ-100, then perhaps S&P 100 on the options side. SPX should be stronger than RUT.X.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:04:06 AM

NASDAQ a/d 1,245/1,458

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:03:53 AM

NYSE a/d 1,566/1,395

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 10:03:24 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 9:55:34 AM

European markets have the FTSE-100 +0.33%, DAX +0.15% and CAC-40 +0.28% ... fractional gains.

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 9:54:11 AM

Asian Markets: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/30/2007 9:42:44 AM

Bullish swing trade stop alert ... for the Ultra Dow30 ProShares (AMEX:DDM) $90.50 -1.41% ...

Jane Fox : 7/30/2007 9:13:47 AM

I have decided to take a few days of R&R and will be back in the monitor on Wednesday. C U then.

Keene Little : 7/30/2007 9:03:43 AM

We've got a volatile morning of trading and the cash market hasn't even opened yet. ES has cycled nearly 15 points from high to low this morning and now it's back near the high again. Look out for another test (maybe) of the low after the cash market opens. There are probably some late-Friday margin calls that will be satisified with some initial selling.

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